chapter 3

Chapter 3

Measures of Morbidity and Mortality Used in Epidemiology

Revised by Susan Bailey, Ph.D.

Learning Objectives

• Define and distinguish among ratios, proportions, and rates

• Explain the term population at risk

• Identify and calculate commonly used rates for morbidity, mortality, and natality

• State the meanings and applications of incidence rates and prevalence

Learning Objectives (cont’d)

• Discuss limitations of crude rates and alternative measures for crude rates

• Apply direct and indirect methods to adjust rates

• List situations where direct and indirect adjustment should be used

Count

• The simplest and most frequently performed quantitative measure in epidemiology.

• Refers to the number of cases of a disease or other health phenomenon being studied.

• Significant for rare diseases or symptom presentations (e.g., case of Ebola virus).

Examples of Counts

• Traffic fatalities in Manhattan in a 24-hour time period

• College dorm students who had hepatitis

• Foreign-born stomach cancer patients

Ratio

• The value obtained by dividing one quantity by another

• The most general form has no specified relationship between numerator and denominator.

• Proportions, rates, and percentages are also ratios.

Example of a Ratio Calculation

• Sex ratio (data from textbook)

Number of male cases 950

Number of female cases 5019:1 male to female= =

Definition of Proportion

• A measure that states a count relative to the size of the group.

• A ratio in which the numerator is part of the denominator.

• May be expressed as a percentage.

Uses of Proportions

• Can demonstrate the magnitude of a problem.

• Example: 10 dormitory students develop hepatitis. How important is this problem?– If only 20 students live in the dorm, 50% are

ill.– If 500 students live in the dorm, 2% are ill.

Example of a Proportion

• Calculate the proportion of African-American male deaths among African-American and white boys aged 5 to 14 years.

A B Total (A + B)

Number of deaths among African-American boys

Number of deaths among white boys

Total

1,150 3,810 4,960

Proportion = A/(A + B) x 100 = (1,150/4,960) x100 = 23.2%

Rate

• Definition: a ratio that consists of a numerator and a denominator and in which time forms part of the denominator.

• Contains the following elements:– disease frequency– unit size of population– time period during which an event occurs

Crude death rate =Number of deaths in a given year Reference population(during the midpoint of the year)

X 100,000

Example: Number of deaths in the United States during 2003 = 2,448,288 Population of the U.S. as of July 1, 2003 = 290,810,789

2,448,288 290,810,789

Crude death rate = = 841.9 per 100,000

Example of Rate Calculation

Definition of Prevalence

• The number of existing cases of a disease or health condition in a population at some designated time.

Analogy of prevalence and

incidence:The water flowing down the waterfall

symbolizes incidence and water collecting

in the pool at the base symbolizes

prevalence. Source: Robert Friis.

Interpretation of Prevalence

• Provides an indication of the extent of a health problem.– Example 1: Prevalence of diarrhea in a

children’s camp on July 13 was 33% (point prevalence).

– Example 2: prevalence of cancer in women during a specified time period (period prevalence)

Uses of Prevalence

• Describing the burden of a health problem in a population.

• Estimating the frequency of an exposure.

• Determining allocation of health resources such as facilities and personnel.

Point Prevalence

Point Prevalence = Number of persons ill Total number in the group

at point in time

Example:

Total number of smokers in the group = 6,234 Total number in the group 41,837

or 14.9%

= 149.0 per 1,000

Period Prevalence = during a time period

Period Prevalence

Number of persons ill

Average population

Example:

Persons ever diagnosed with cancer = 2,293 Average population 41,837

= 5.5%

Definition of Incidence

• The number of new cases of a disease that occur in a group during a certain time period.

Incidence Rate (Cumulative Incidence)

• Describes the rate of development of a disease in a group over a certain time period.

• Contains three elements:– Numerator = the number of new cases.– Denominator = the population at risk.– Time = the period during which the cases

occur.

Applications of Incidence Data

• Help in research on the etiology/causality of disease.

• Used to estimate– the risk of developing a disease.– the effects of exposure to a hypothesized

factor of interest.

Incidence Rate Calculation (IWHS Data)

Incidence rate =

Number of new cases over a time period

Total population at riskduring the same time period

X multiplier (e.g., 100,000)

Number of new cases = 1,085Population at risk = 37,105

Incidence rate = 1,08537,105

= 0.02924/8 = 0.003655 x 100,000

= 365.5 cases per 100,000 women per year

Attack Rate (AR)• Alternative form of incidence rate.

• Used for diseases observed in a population for a short time period.

• Not a true rate because time dimension often uncertain.

• Example: Salmonella gastroenteritis outbreak

• Formula: Ill___

Ill + Well

AR = x 100 (during a time period)

Incidence Density

• An incidence measure used when members of a population or study group are under observation for different lengths of time.

Number of new cases during the time period Total person-time of observation

Incidence density =

Number of new cases during the time period Total person-years of observation

Incidence density =

If period of observation is measured in years, formula becomes:

Formulas for Incidence Density

Incidence Density, Example

A B A x BNumber of Subjects Length of observation (years) Person-years

30 10 30010 9 907 8 562 7 141 1 1

Total 50 461Number of health events (heart attacks) observed during the 10-year period: 5Incidence density = (5/461) x 100 = 1.08 per 100 person-years of observation

Interrelationship Between Prevalence and Incidence

Interrelationship: P ID=

The prevalence (P) of a disease is proportional to the incidence rate (I) times the duration (D) of a disease.

Interrelationship between Prevalence and Incidence

Incidence

Prevalence

Cure/Death

Prevalence ~Incidence when disease has a short duration (D~0)

High Prevalence could mean• true high incidence or•long duration of disease

•prolonged survival

Low prevalence could mean•true low incidence or•short duration of disease

•rapidly fatal•quick/effective cure


(cont’d)

• If duration of disease is short and incidence is high, prevalence becomes similar to incidence.

• Short duration--cases recover rapidly or are fatal.

• Example: common cold


(cont’d)

• If duration of disease is long and incidence is low, prevalence increases greatly relative to incidence.

• Example: many chronic diseases

Outbreak of Meningococcal Infections in a Summer School Class of

10 StudentsStudents Jul 5 Jul 14ABCDEFGHIJDay Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa

Duration of Illness

Crude Rates, Measures of Natality

• Crude birth rate• Fertility rate• Infant mortality rate• Fetal death rate

• Neonatal mortality rate• Postneonatal mortality rate• Perinatal mortality rate• Maternal mortality rate

Crude Birth Rate

Crude Birth Rate =

Number of live birthswithin a given period

Population size at themiddle of that period

X 1,000 population

Sample calculation: 4,112,052 babies were born in the U.S. during 2004, when the U.S. population was 293,655,404. The birth rate was4,112,052/293,655,404 = 14.0 per 1,000.

Used to project population changes; it is affected by the numberand age composition of women of childbearing age

General Fertility Rate

Generalfertility rate

=

# of live birthswithin a year

# of womenaged 15-44 yrs.

during the midpointof the year

X1,000 womenaged 15-44

Sample calculation: During 2004, there were 62,033,402 women aged 15 to 44 in the U.S. There were 4,112,052 live births. The general fertility rate was 4,112,052/62,033,402 = 66.3 per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44.

Used for comparisons of fertility among age, racial, and socioeconomic groups.

Fertility rates: United States, 1950-1992. Source: Reprinted from National Center for Health Statistics, Annual Summary of Births, Marriages, Divorces and Deaths, United States, 1992, Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol 41, No 13, p. 3. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics; 1993.

Infant Mortality Rate

Infant mortality =

Number of infant deathsamong infants aged 0-365

daysduring the year

Number of live birthsduring the year

X1,000 live

births

Used for international comparisons; a high rate indicates unmethealth needs and poor environmental conditions.

Sample calculation: In the U.S. during 2003, there were 28,025 deaths among infants under 1 year of age and 4,089,950 live births. The infant mortality rate was (28,025/4,089,950) x 1,000 = 6.85 per 1,000 live births.

Fetal Death Rate

Fetal Death Rate (per 1,000 live births plus fetal deaths) =

Number of fetal deaths after 20 weeks or more gestation

Number of live births + number of fetal deathsafter 20 weeks or more gestation

X 1,000

Late fetal death rate (per 1,000 live births plus late fetal deaths) =


Number of live births + number of fetal deaths after28 weeks or more gestation

X 1,000

Used to estimate the risk of death of the fetus associated with the stages of gestation.

Fetal Death Ratio

Provides a measure of fetal wastage (loss) relative to the number of live births.

Fetal Death Ratio =


Number of live birthsX 1,000(during a year)

Neonatal Mortality Rate

• Reflects events happening after birth, primarily:– congenital malformations– prematurity (birth before gestation week

28)– low birth weight (birth weight less than

2,500 g)

Neonatal Mortality Rate Formula

Neonatal mortality rate =

Number of infant deaths under 28 days of age

Number of live birthsX 1,000 live births(during a year)

Postneonatal Mortality Rate

Postneonatal mortality rate =

Number of infant deaths from28 days to 365 days after birth

Number of live births - neonatal deaths X 1,000 live births

Reflects environmental events, control of infectious diseases, and improvement in nutrition.

Infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality rates: United States, 1940-2003. Source: From Hoyert DL, Heron MP, Murphy SL, Kung H. Deaths: Final Data for 2003. National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol 54, No 13, p. 12. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics; 2006.

Perinatal Mortality Rate

Perinatal mortality rate =

Number of late fetal deaths after28 weeks or more gestation plusinfant deaths within 7 days of birth

Number of live births +number of late fetal deaths

X 1,000 live births and fetal deaths

Reflects environmental events that occur during pregnancy and after birth; it combines mortality during the prenatal and postnatal periods.

Perinatal Mortality Ratio

Number of late fetal deaths after28 weeks or more gestation plusinfant deaths within 7 days of birth

Number of live birthsX 1,000 live births

Perinatal mortality ratio =

Maternal Mortality Rate

Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births, including multiple births) =

Number of deaths assigned to causes related to childbirth

Number of live birthsX 100,000 live births(during a year)

Reflects health care access and socioeconomic factors; it includes maternal deaths resulting from causes associated with pregnancy and puerperium (during and after childbirth).

Crude Rates

• Use crude rates with caution when comparing disease frequencies between populations.

• Observed differences in crude rates may be the result of systematic factors (e.g., sex or age distributions) within the population rather than true variation in rates.

Specific Rates

• Specific rates refer to a particular subgroup of the population defined in terms of race, age, sex, or single cause of death or illness.

Cause-Specific Rate

Cause-Specific Rate =

Mortality (or frequency of a given disease)

Population size at midpoint of time periodX 100,000

Cause-specific mortality rate (age group 25-34) due to HIV in 2003 =1,588/39,872,598 = 4.0 per 100,000

Example:

Proportional Mortality Ratio (PMR)

PMR (%) =

Mortality due to a specific cause during a time period

Mortality due to all causes during the same time periodX 100

PMR (%) for HIV among the 25- to 34-year-old group =1,588/41,300 = 3.8%

Indicates relative importance of a specific cause of death;not a measure of the risk of dying of a particular cause.

Example:

The 10 Leading Causes of Death, 25-34 Years, All Races, Both Sexes, U.S., 2003

(Number in population = 39,872,598Rank Order

Cause of Death Number Proportional Mortality

Ratio (%)

Cause-Specific Death Rate per 100,000

1 Accidents (unintentional injuries) 12,541 30.4 31.5

2 Intentional self-harm (suicide) 5,065 12.3 12.7

3 Assault (homicide) 4,516 10.9 11.3

4 Malignant neoplasms 3,741 9.1 9.4

5 Diseases of the heart 3,250 7.9 8.2

6 HIV disease 1,588 3.8 4.0

7 Diabetes mellitus 657 1.6 1.6

8 Cerebrovascular diseases 583 1.4 1.5

9 Congenital malformations 426 1.0 1.1

10 Influenza and pneumonia 373 0.9 0.9

Mortality for all causes = 41,300

Age-Specific Rate (Ri)

The number of cases per age group of population (during a specified time period).

Number of deaths among those aged 5-14 years

Number of persons who are 5-14 years (during time period) X 100,000

Sample calculation: In the U.S. during 2003, there were 1,651 deaths due to malignant neoplasms among the age group 5 to 14 years, and there were40,968,637 persons in the same age group. The age-specific malignant neoplasm death rate in this age group is (1,651/40,968,637) = 4.0 per 100,000.

Ri =

Example:

Method for Calculation of Age-Specific Death Rates

Age Group

(Years)

Number of Deaths

(Di) In 2003

Number in Population

(Pi) as of July 1, 2003

Age-Specific Rate

(Ri) per 100,000

Under 1 28,025 4,003,606 700.0

1-4 4,965 15,765,673 31.5

5-14 6,954 40,968,637 17.0

15-24 33,568 41,206,163 81.5

25-34 41,300 39,872,598 103.6

35-44 89,461 44,370,594 201.6

45-54 176,781 40,804,599 433.2

55-64 262,519 27,899,736 940.9

65-74 413,497 18,337,044 2,255.0

75-84 703,024 12,868,672 5,463.1

85+ 687,852 4,713,467 14,593.3

Not stated 342 NA NA

Totals 2,448,288 290,810,789 841.9

Adjusted Rates• Summary measures of the rate of

morbidity and mortality in a population in which statistical procedures have been applied to remove the effect of differences in composition of various populations.

Don’t confuse age-specific with age-adjusted

Specific –actual rates observed in the population within specific age groups

Number of Deaths for 30-34 year olds

Number of 30-34 year olds in the population

Adjusted – statistically derived rates adjusted by calculating new rates using those from a standard population

Direct Method for Adjustment

• Direct method may be used if age-specific death rates in a population to be standardized are known and a suitable standard population is available.

New Standard Population

• Year 2000 population– Replaces the standard based on 1940 population.– Results in age-adjusted death rates that are much

larger. – Affects trends in age-adjusted rates for certain

causes of death. – Narrows race differentials in age-adjusted death

rates.

• Reduces the three different standards into one acceptable standard.

Direct Method for Adjustment of Rates

Age Group

(Years)

2003 Age-Specific

Death Rate

(Ri)

Number in

Standard

Population, 2000 (Psi)

Expected Number

of Deaths (Di)

(Ri * Psi)

Under 1 0.007 3,794,901 26,564.08

1-4 .000315 15,191,619 4,784.22

5-14 .00017 39,976,619 6,785.62

15-24 .000815 38,076,743 31,018.66

25-34 .001036 37,233,437 38,566.36

35-44 .002016 44,659,185 90,042.86

45-54 .00433 37,030,152 160,428.66

55-64 .009409 23,961,506 225,462.73

65-74 .02255 18,135,514 408,952.54

75-84 .054631 12,314,793 672,765.23

85+ .145933 4,259,173 621,555.36

Totals ΣPsi=274,633,642 2,286,926.31

Age-adjusted rate per 100,000 = 832.7 (Refer to text.)

Calculation of Weights for Direct Method

• Weights are calculated by dividing the standard population size in each age group by the total standard population size

Wsi = Psi/ΣPsi

for example, the weight for the under age 1 group is

Wunder 1 = 3,794,901/274,633,642 = 0.01381

Weighted Method for Direct Rate Adjustment

Age Group

(Years)

Number in

Standard Population,

2000 (Psi)

Standard

Weight (Wsi) for

2000

Age-Specific

Death Rate

(Ri), 2003

Age- Adjusted Death Rates

Wsi • Ri

Under 1 3,794,901 0.013818 700.0 9.6726

1-4 15,191,619 0.055316 31.5 1.7420

5-14 39,976,619 0.145563 17.0 2.4708

15-24 38,076,743 0.138646 81.5 11.2946

25-34 37,233,437 0.135575 103.6 14.0428

35-44 44,659,185 0.162164 201.6 13.7865

45-54 37,030,152 0.134835 433.2 15.4155

55-64 23,961,506 0.087249 940.9 18.0958

65-74 18,135,514 0.066035 2,255.0 148.9084

75-84 12,314,793 0.044841 5,463.1 244.9682

85+ 4,259,173 0.015509 14,593.3 266.3216

Totals 274,633,642 1.0 N/A 832.7

Indirect Method

• Indirect method may be used if age-specific death rates of the population for standardization are unknown or unstable, for example, because the rates to be standardized are based on a small population.

• The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) can be used to evaluate the results of the indirect method.

Standardized Mortality Ratio(SMR)

SMR =Observed deaths

Expected deathsx 100

Sample calculation: The number of observed deaths due to heart diseaseis 600 in a certain county during year 2003. The expected numberof deaths is 1,000. The SMR = (600/1,000 x 100) = 60% (0.6).

Interpretation of SMR

• If the observed and expected numbers are the same, the SMR would be 1.0, indicating that observed mortality is not unusual.

• An SMR of 2.0 means that the death rate in the study population is two times greater than expected.

Illustration of Indirect Age Adjustment: Mortality Rate Calculation for a Fictitious

Population of 230,109 PersonsAge (Years) Number in

Population of

Interest

(Pi)

Death Rates

in

Standard

Population

(Dsi)

Expected Number

of Deaths in

Population of

Interest

Pi * Dsi

15-24 7,989 .000815 6.5

25-34 37,030 .001036 38.4

35-44 60,838 .002016 122.6

45-54 68,687 .004332 297.6

55-64 55,565 .00949 522.8

Totals 230,109 987.9

Total expected number of deaths = 987.9Observed number of deaths in this population = 502 (given)

Indirect Age Adjustment (cont’d)

• From previous table, SMR is (502/987.9) X 100 = 50.8%.

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