dena bank ru2 qfy2011

11
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy) NII 465 360 29.1 240 93.5 Pre-prov. profit 326 239 36.5 161 101.7 PAT 161 139 15.7 125 28.9 Source: Company, Angel Research For 2QFY2011, Dena Bank reported healthy net profit growth of 28.9% yoy, ahead of our estimates, on account of better-than-expected operating performance. Healthy CASA accretion and consequent NIM expansion were the key positives of the results. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock. Better-than-expected NII growth: On a sequential basis, advances de-grew 4.4% and deposits recorded a marginal growth of 0.4% compared to industry growth of advances (2.0% qoq) and deposits (3.4% qoq). CASA deposits registered a strong 29.9% yoy and 10.0% qoq growth leading to a substantial ~340bp qoq improvement in CASA ratio to 39.1% from 35.7% as of 1QFY2011. Reported NIM improved by a substantial 70bp qoq to 3.52%. Consequently, NII grew by a robust 93.5% yoy and 29.1% qoq to `465cr despite a ~230bp sequential decline in the CD ratio. Core fee income and recoveries from written-off accounts grew at healthy rates of 34.9% yoy and 40.9% yoy, respectively. Absolute gross NPAs increased by 3.1% qoq to `826cr. Slippages came down considerably with a slippage rate of 1.6% in 2QFY2011 compared to 2.7% in 1QFY2011 and 2.2% in FY2010. Outlook and Valuation: Dena Bank, with a strong CASA ratio of 39.1%, is better placed than peers to protect its NIM in a rising interest rate environment. After the proposed capital infusion, the bank's tier-I ratio will improve to 9.1% by end-FY2011 from 8.2% in FY2010, and enable it to maintain its CAR well above 12% levels until FY2012. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 6.5x FY2012E EPS of `21.3 and 1.2x FY2012E ABV of `115.1. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `150. We have assigned a target multiple of 1.3x FY2012E ABV, translating into 8.7% upside from current levels. Key Financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E NII 1,064 1,100 1,686 1,745 % chg 23.9 3.3 53.3 3.5 Net Profit 423 511 598 610 % chg 17.5 21.0 16.9 2.1 NIM (%) 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.5 EPS (`) 14.7 17.8 20.8 21.3 P/E (x) 9.3 7.7 6.6 6.5 P/ABV (x) 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.2 RoA (%) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 RoE (%) 24.0 23.5 22.8 19.8 Source: Company, Angel Research ACCUMULATE CMP `138 Target Price `150 Investment Period 12 Months Stock Info Sector Banking Market Cap (` cr) 3,950 Beta 1.5 52 Week High / Low 140/55 Avg. Daily Volume 10,93,043 Face Value (`) 10 BSE Sensex 20,221 Nifty 6,082 Reuters Code DENA.BO Bloomberg Code DBNK@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 51.2 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 9.9 FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.1 Indian Public / Others 20.8 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 12.2 20.8 5.1 Dena Bank 38.7 100.3 132.2 Vaibhav Agrawal 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 333 [email protected] Amit Rane 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 326 [email protected] Shrinivas Bhutda 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 316 [email protected] 2QFY2011 Result Update | Banking October 26, 2010 Dena Bank Performance Highlights

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Page 1: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

 

Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy)

NII 465 360 29.1 240 93.5

Pre-prov. profit 326 239 36.5 161 101.7

PAT 161 139 15.7 125 28.9

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 2QFY2011, Dena Bank reported healthy net profit growth of 28.9% yoy, ahead of our estimates, on account of better-than-expected operating performance. Healthy CASA accretion and consequent NIM expansion were the key positives of the results. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock.

Better-than-expected NII growth: On a sequential basis, advances de-grew 4.4% and deposits recorded a marginal growth of 0.4% compared to industry growth of advances (2.0% qoq) and deposits (3.4% qoq). CASA deposits registered a strong 29.9% yoy and 10.0% qoq growth leading to a substantial ~340bp qoq improvement in CASA ratio to 39.1% from 35.7% as of 1QFY2011. Reported NIM improved by a substantial 70bp qoq to 3.52%. Consequently, NII grew by a robust 93.5% yoy and 29.1% qoq to `465cr despite a ~230bp sequential decline in the CD ratio. Core fee income and recoveries from written-off accounts grew at healthy rates of 34.9% yoy and 40.9% yoy, respectively. Absolute gross NPAs increased by 3.1% qoq to `826cr. Slippages came down considerably with a slippage rate of 1.6% in 2QFY2011 compared to 2.7% in 1QFY2011 and 2.2% in FY2010.

Outlook and Valuation: Dena Bank, with a strong CASA ratio of 39.1%, is better placed than peers to protect its NIM in a rising interest rate environment. After the proposed capital infusion, the bank's tier-I ratio will improve to 9.1% by end-FY2011 from 8.2% in FY2010, and enable it to maintain its CAR well above 12% levels until FY2012. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 6.5x FY2012E EPS of `21.3 and 1.2x FY2012E ABV of `115.1. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `150. We have assigned a target multiple of 1.3x FY2012E ABV, translating into 8.7% upside from current levels.

Key Financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

NII 1,064 1,100 1,686 1,745

% chg 23.9 3.3 53.3 3.5

Net Profit 423 511 598 610

% chg 17.5 21.0 16.9 2.1

NIM (%) 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.5

EPS (`) 14.7 17.8 20.8 21.3

P/E (x) 9.3 7.7 6.6 6.5

P/ABV (x) 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.2

RoA (%) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8

RoE (%) 24.0 23.5 22.8 19.8

Source: Company, Angel Research

ACCUMULATE CMP `138 Target Price `150

Investment Period 12 Months Stock Info Sector Banking

Market Cap (` cr) 3,950

Beta 1.5

52 Week High / Low 140/55

Avg. Daily Volume 10,93,043

Face Value (`) 10

BSE Sensex 20,221

Nifty 6,082

Reuters Code DENA.BO

Bloomberg Code DBNK@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 51.2

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 9.9

FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.1

Indian Public / Others 20.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 12.2 20.8 5.1

Dena Bank 38.7 100.3 132.2

Vaibhav Agrawal 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 333

[email protected]

Amit Rane 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 326

[email protected]

Shrinivas Bhutda 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 316

[email protected]

2QFY2011 Result Update | Banking

October 26, 2010

Dena Bank Performance Highlights

Page 2: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 2

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2011 performance

Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy)

Interest earned 1,221 1,115 9.6 963 26.9

Interest expenses 756 754 0.3 722 4.7

NII 465 360 29.1 240 93.5

Non-interest income 119 107 11.0 125 (5.1)

Operating income 584 468 24.9 366 59.7

Operating expenses 259 229 12.9 204 26.6

Pre-prov. profit 326 239 36.5 161 101.7

Provisions & cont. 73 43 70.1 1 4,889.7

PBT 253 196 29.1 160 58.0

Prov. for taxes 92 57 61.7 35 160.7

PAT 161 139 15.7 125 28.9

EPS (`) 5.6 4.8 15.7 4.3 28.9

Cost-to-income ratio (%) 44.3 49.0

55.9

Effective tax rate (%) 36.5 29.1

22.1

Net NPA (%) 1.5 1.5

1.2

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: 2QFY2011 actual v/s Angel estimates

Particulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Var. (%)

NII 465 377 23.5

Non-interest income 119 90 32.1

Operating income 584 467 25.2

Operating expenses 259 224 15.3

Pre-prov. profit 326 242 34.3

Provisions & cont. 73 46 58.5

PBT 253 196 28.7

Prov. for taxes 92 59 56.4

PAT 161 138 16.8

Source: Company, Angel Research

Advances and deposits growth sluggish on a sequential basis

In 2QFY2011, on a sequential basis advances de-grew by 4.4% and deposits recorded a marginal growth of 0.4% compared to industry growth of advances (2.0% qoq) and deposits growth (3.4% qoq). On a yoy basis, advances growth (21.0%) and deposits growth (18.2%) was in line with industry growth. On account of growth in deposits compared to de-growth in advances on a sequential basis, credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio fell to 67.7% in 2QFY2011 from 71.1% in 1QFY2011. Growth in advances was driven by agricultural loans (25.5% yoy) and retail loans (18.0% yoy).

On the deposits side, CASA deposits registered a strong 29.9% yoy and 10.0% qoq growth leading to a substantial ~340bp qoq improvement in CASA ratio to 39.1% from 35.7% as of 1QFY2011.

Page 3: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 3

Exhibit 3: Advances and deposits growth sluggish qoq

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Strong traction in CASA deposits

Source: Company, Angel Research

On the back of improvement in CASA ratio, re-pricing of bulk deposits and higher focus on retail and SME lending, reported NIM improved by a substantial 70bp qoq to 3.52% in 2QFY2011 from 2.82% in 1QFY2011. Consequently, the bank’s NII grew by a robust 93.5% yoy and 29.1% qoq to `465cr despite a ~230bp sequential decline in CD ratio.

Management expects to sustain NIM above 3%+ levels for FY2011 on the back of higher focus on CASA deposits accretion and retail and SME lending. Exhibit 5: NIMs surprise on the upside

Source: Company, Angel Research

Lower treasury, but healthy core fee and recoveries

Core fee income and recoveries from written-off accounts grew at healthy rates of 34.9% yoy and 40.9% yoy, respectively. However, total non-interest income declined by 5.1% yoy to `119cr because of minor losses in treasury compared to profit of `38cr in 2QFY2010.

Management is expecting recoveries from written-off accounts to the tune of `100cr+ in FY2011 out of which `45cr has been achieved during 1HFY2011. Also, the bank is planning to extend depository services in 57 additional branches compared to a total of 49 branches offering the facility as of now. The bank also has plans to launch on-line trading facility shortly. These initiatives are likely to help the bank in sustaining the traction in non-interest income.

29

,92

5

30

,92

4

35

,46

2

37

,88

4

36

,21

0

45

,25

1

47

,84

4

51

,34

4

53

,31

1

53

,49

8

66.1 64.6

69.1

71.1

67.7

60.0

63.0

66.0

69.0

72.0

-

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

Advances (` cr) Deposits (` cr) CD ratio (%, RHS)

35.2 35.6 35.5

36.0 35.7

39.1

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

2.3 2.5

2.8 2.8

3.5

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

Page 4: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 4

Exhibit 6: Strong traction in other income despite minor loss in treasury Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy)

CEB 92 79 15.8 68 34.9

Treasury (0) 10 NA 38 NA

Recoveries 27 18 51.5 19 40.9

Total 119 107 11.0 125 (5.1)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Slippages come down

The bank’s absolute gross NPAs increased marginally by 3.1% sequentially to `826cr in 2QFY2011. The annualised gross slippage ratio came down to 1.6% during the quarter from 2.7% in 1QFY2011 and from 2.2% in FY2010. Fresh slippages amounted to `143cr out of which majority belonged to the corporate advances. Recoveries were up from `37cr in 1QFY2011 to `53cr in 2QFY2011.Consequently, gross NPA ratio deteriorated to 2.3% (from 2.1% in 1QFY2011).

On account of aggressive provisioning charges, net NPAs reduced by 4.2% sequentially to `538cr. Net NPA ratio was stable sequentially at 1.5%. The NPA provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs improved to 75.4% (from 74.1% as of 1QFY2011). The bank’s cumulative restructured advances stood at `1,306cr and formed 3.6% of advances and 45.1% of net worth. During the quarter, there were slippages of `67cr from restructured accounts, taking the total slippages from restructured accounts to 7.7% of restructured advances.

Exhibit 7: Trend in asset quality

Source: Company, Angel Research Note: Coverage ratio for excluding write-offs till 3QFY2010

Improved productivity

During the quarter, total operating expenses increased by 12.9% qoq and 26.6% yoy to `259cr, driven by 34.2% increase in employee costs and 15.4% rise in other operating expenses. However, the cost-to-income ratio improved substantially both on a yoy and qoq basis to 44.3% in 2QFY2011 (from 49.0% in 1QFY2011 and 55.9% in 2QFY2010). The bank added 20 more branches increasing its branch network to 1,257 during the quarter. Currently, the bank has 46 branch licenses pending and aims to utilise all of them during 3QFY2011. The bank also opened 20 new ATMs during the quarter taking its ATM network to 441.

568

585

621

629

598

586

642

801

826

248

266

313

353

372

365

428

561

538

56.3 54.6

49.5 43.9

37.8 37.7

78.6 74.1 75.4

10.0

30.0

50.0

70.0

90.0

-

300

600

900

2QFY

09

3QFY

09

4QFY

09

1QFY

10

2QFY

10

3QFY

10

4QFY

10

1QFY

11

2QFY

11

Gross NPAs (` cr) Net NPAs (` cr) Provision coverage (%, RHS)

Page 5: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 5

Exhibit 8: Trend in productivity

Source: Company, Angel Research

Capital infusion expected in 3QFY2011

During the quarter, Dena Bank’s CAR stood at 12.3%, with tier-I capital of 8.0% (forming 65% of the total CAR). The bank’s CAR is expected to increase with the likely capital infusion of `600cr in the form of preference capital by the government in FY2011. Over FY2012–13, management expects to receive further `700cr from the government by way of preference capital. The cost of this capital is expected to be linked to the repo rate as per management indications. Accordingly, we have assumed the cost of preference capital to be 7%. After the proposed capital infusion, the bank's tier-I ratio will improve to 9.1% by end-FY2011 from 8.2% in FY2010.

91

11

6

14

4

11

7

13

0

12

1

13

2

12

8

14

5

16

3

70

75

81

75

74

83

87

92

84

96

56.6 56.0

45.9

50.5 50.4

55.9

52.5

44.1 49.0 44.3

36.0

44.0

52.0

60.0

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

FY0

9

2Q

FY0

9

3Q

FY0

9

4Q

FY0

9

1Q

FY1

0

2Q

FY1

0

3Q

FY1

0

4Q

FY1

0

1Q

FY1

1

2Q

FY1

1

Staff expenses (` cr) Other opex (` cr) Cost-to-income ratio (%, RHS)

Page 6: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 6

Investment Arguments

Structurally strong CASA

Dena Bank has maintained its CASA ratio at healthy 35%+ levels (FY2010) on account of having higher concentration of its branches in rural and semi-urban areas (mainly in Gujarat and Maharashtra), where the prosperity levels are relatively high. Further, during 2QFY2011, the bank was able to increase the CASA ratio to 39.1%. In the last two years, the bank has maintained a CASA market share of 1.1% despite intense competition from the private banks. This structural advantage is reflected in the bank's cost of funds at 5.9% in FY2010, which is one of the lowest amongst its peers.

Capital infusion to enable further growth

Dena Bank's CAR at 12.3% comprising only 8.0% of tier-I capital is below optimum levels (reflected in 22x leverage of the bank for FY2010). Moreover, the government’s holding at 51% had prevented the bank from further diluting the government stake. This constraint on raising equity for growth was an overhang on the stock. However, the government has been reiterating its intention to infuse capital in PSU banks. Consequently, Dena Bank is expected to receive `600cr over the next three months. Post the capital infusion, the bank's tier-I will improve to 9.1% in FY2011 from 8.2% in FY2010, enabling it to grow its advances more-or-less in line with peers in the medium term.

Lower provisioning to aid bottom-line growth

Dena Bank's gross and net NPAs stood at 2.3% and 1.5% respectively, in 2QFY2011, with cumulative restructured advances at `1,306cr (3.6% of loans). As per a recent RBI circular, the bank's effective provision coverage, including technically written-off portfolio, is 75.4% as against the mandatory 70%, due to which an adjustment to book value for NPAs is not required. Further, this portfolio is expected to yield outsized income from recoveries relative to peers. Given the improving economic outlook, we believe lower incremental provisioning costs will aid the bank in maintaining its profitability levels.

Outlook and Valuation Dena Bank, with a strong CASA ratio of 39.1%, is better placed than peers to protect its NIM in a rising interest rate environment. After the proposed capital infusion, the bank's tier-I ratio will improve to 9.1% by end-FY2011 from 8.2% in FY2010, and enable it to maintain its CAR well above 12% levels until FY2012. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 6.5x FY2012E EPS of `21.3 and 1.2x FY2012E ABV of `115.1. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `150. We have assigned a target multiple of 1.3x FY2012E ABV, translating into 8.7% upside from current levels.

Page 7: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 7

Exhibit 9: Key assumptions

Particulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates

FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E

Credit growth 18.0 18.0 15.0 18.0

Deposit growth 16.0 16.0 15.0 16.0

CASA ratio 35.3 34.7 35.6 35.0

NIMs 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.5

Other income growth (15.0) 14.9 (14.9) 15.0

Growth in staff expenses 15.0 15.0 25.0 15.0

Growth in other expenses 15.0 15.0 18.0 15.0

Slippages 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.6

Coverage ratio 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0

Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Change in estimates

Particulars (` cr) FY2011 FY2012

Earlier estimates

Revised estimates

% chg

Earlier estimates

Revised estimates

% chg

NII 1,452 1,686 16.1 1,564 1,745 11.6

Non-interest income 500 501 0.1 575 576 0.3

Operating income 1,953 2,187 12.0 2,138 2,321 8.6

Operating expenses 975 1,037 6.3 1,122 1,192 6.3

Pre-prov. profit 977 1,150 17.7 1,017 1,129 11.1

Provisions & cont. 158 191 20.4 115 127 10.0

PBT 819 959 17.2 901 1,002 11.2

Prov. for taxes 246 307 25.0 304 338 11.2

Preference dividend 55 55 - 55 55 -

PAT 518 598 15.3 543 610 12.3

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: P/ABV

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

Apr-

02

Nov

-02

Jun-

03

Jan-

04

Aug-

04

Mar

-05

Oct

-05

May

-06

Dec

-06

Jul-0

7

Feb-

08

Sep-

08

Apr-

09

Nov

-09

Jun-

10

Jan-

11Price (`) 0.4x 0.7x 1x 1.3x 1.6x

Page 8: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 8

Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary

Company Reco. CMP (`)

Tgt. price (`)

Upside (%)

FY2012E P/ABV (x)

FY2012E Tgt

P/ABV (x)

FY2012E P/E (x)

FY10-12E EPS CAGR (%)

FY2012E RoA (%)

FY2012E RoE (%)

AxisBk Buy 1,460 1,705 16.8 2.7 3.2 14.0 29.6 1.6 21.1

FedBk Accumulate 465 512 10.1 1.4 1.5 9.7 32.6 1.4 14.8

HDFCBk Accumulate 2,301 2,510 9.1 3.7 4.0 19.4 35.7 1.7 20.4

ICICIBk* Buy 1,131 1,350 19.3 2.3 2.6 18.3 31.0 1.4 15.5

SIB Neutral 29 - - 1.7 - 10.0 18.0 1.0 17.8

YesBk Accumulate 378 415 9.7 2.9 3.2 17.4 24.4 1.2 18.2

BOI Neutral 524 - - 1.6 - 8.6 35.2 0.9 19.8

CorpBk Neutral 788 - - 1.4 - 7.6 12.5 1.0 20.1

DenaBk Accumulate 138 150 8.6 1.2 1.3 6.5 9.2 0.8 19.8

IndBk Accumulate 306 324 6.0 1.4 1.5 7.4 8.4 1.3 21.1

IOB Accumulate 168 187 11.2 1.2 1.3 8.3 24.5 0.7 14.8

OBC Neutral 501 - - 1.3 - 7.5 21.6 0.9 18.1

PNB Neutral 1,345 - - 1.8 - 8.9 10.6 1.2 22.3

SBI* Accumulate 3,180 3,556 11.8 2.4 2.6 14.0 24.0 1.1 19.2

UcoBk Neutral 137 - - 1.3 - 5.9 12.0 0.8 24.9

UnionBk Neutral 417 - - 1.7 - 7.4 17.2 1.1 23.9

Source: Company, Angel Research

Page 9: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 9

Income statement

Y/E March (` cr) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E

NII 723 855 859 1,064 1,100 1,686 1,745

- YoY Growth (%) 5.3 18.4 0.4 23.9 3.3 53.3 3.5

Other Income 459 422 478 430 589 501 576

- YoY Growth (%) 47.5 (8.0) 13.2 (10.0) 36.9 (14.9) 15.0

Operating Income 1,182 1,278 1,337 1,495 1,689 2,187 2,321

- YoY Growth (%) 18.4 8.1 4.6 11.8 13.0 29.5 6.2

Operating Expenses 561 612 650 768 848 1,037 1,192

- YoY Growth (%) (10.3) 8.9 6.4 18.1 10.4 22.2 15.0

Pre - Provision Profit 620 666 686 726 841 1,150 1,129

- YoY Growth (%) 66.9 7.4 3.1 5.8 15.7 36.8 (1.8)

Prov. & Cont. 569 433 369 185 154 191 127

- YoY Growth (%) 51.1 (23.9) (14.8) (49.9) (16.8) 24.1 (33.5)

Profit Before Tax 52 233 318 541 687 959 1,002

- YoY Growth (%) NA 352.5 36.3 70.5 26.8 39.7 4.5

Prov. for Taxation (21) 31 (42) 119 176 307 338

- as a % of PBT (41.7) 13.5 (13.3) 21.9 25.6 32.0 33.7

PAT 73 202 360 423 511 652 665

- YoY Growth (%) 19.7 176.1 78.5 17.5 21.0 27.6 1.9

Preference dividend - - - - - 55 55

PAT for Eq. shareholders 73 202 360 423 511 598 610

- YoY Growth (%) 19.7 176.1 78.5 17.5 21.0 16.9 2.1

Balance Sheet

Y/E March (` cr) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

Share Capital 287 287 287 287 287 887 887

- Equity 287 287 287 287 287 287 287

- Preference - - - - - 600 600

Reserve & Surplus 1,052 1,210 1,514 1,884 2,368 2,857 3,378

Deposits 23,623 27,690 33,943 43,051 51,344 59,559 69,089

Growth (%) 13.0 17.2 22.6 26.8 19.3 16.0 16.0

Borrowings 1 451 395 52 1,562 1,640 1,722

Tier 2 Capital 607 535 1,066 1,391 1,523 1,723 1,923

Other Liab. & Prov. 975 1,278 1,437 1,796 556 668 826

Total Liabilities 26,545 31,451 38,642 48,460 57,640 67,334 77,825

Cash balances 1,686 1,776 3,533 4,982 4,355 5,003 6,287

Bank balances 817 1,039 443 875 813 1,844 700

Investments 8,571 9,235 10,335 12,473 15,694 17,272 20,036

Advances 14,231 18,303 23,033 28,878 35,462 41,846 49,378

Growth (%) 25.8 28.6 25.8 25.4 22.8 18.0 18.0

Fixed Assets 461 435 406 405 407 415 424

Other Assets 779 663 891 847 908 954 1,001

Total Assets 26,545 31,451 38,642 48,460 57,640 67,334 77,825

Growth (%) 10.5 18.5 22.9 25.4 18.9 16.8 15.6

Page 10: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 10

Ratio Analysis

Y/E March FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E

Profitability ratios (%)

NIMs 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.5

Cost to Income Ratio 47.5 47.9 48.7 51.4 50.2 47.4 51.4

RoA 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8

RoE 7.1 17.5 25.6 24.0 23.5 22.8 19.8

B/S ratios (%)

CASA Ratio 43.6 44.5 39.2 34.8 36.0 35.6 35.0

Credit/Deposit Ratio 60.2 66.1 67.8 67.1 69.1 69.1 70.3

CAR 10.6 11.5 11.1 12.1 12.8 15.3 14.7

- Tier I 6.0 6.1 6.8 6.8 8.2 9.1 8.8

Asset Quality (%)

Gross NPAs 6.4 4.0 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.6 2.6

Net NPAs 3.0 2.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.3

Slippages 2.8 3.6 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.6

Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Provision Coverage 52.8 50.0 60.7 48.3 80.0 75.0 75.0

Per Share Data (`)

EPS 2.5 7.0 12.5 14.7 17.8 20.8 21.3

ABVPS 29.7 36.8 51.8 62.2 73.8 99.3 115.1

DPS - 0.8 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.5

Valuation Ratios

PER (x) 54.1 19.6 11.0 9.3 7.7 6.6 6.5

P/ABVPS (x) 4.6 3.7 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.2

Dividend Yield - 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.8

DuPont Analysis (%)

NII 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.4

(-) Prov. Exp. 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

Adj. NII 0.6 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.4 2.3

Treasury 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1

Int. Sens. Inc. 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.3

Other Inc. 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7

Op. Inc. 2.4 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1

Opex 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7

PBT 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4

Taxes (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5

RoA 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8

Leverage (x) 24.6 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.4 23.7 23.4

RoE 7.1 17.5 25.6 24.0 23.5 22.8 19.8

Page 11: Dena bank ru2 qfy2011

Dena Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

October 26, 2010 11

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Dena Bank 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)