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Variável Descrição η
(Eta) - Escalar que corresponde à variável latente (não observada)
Y’ = (y1, y2, ... , yP) Vetor dos indicadores observados de η (variáveis endógenas) x’ = (x1, x2, ... ,xq) Vetor das causas observadas de η (variáveis exógenas) λ = (λ1 , λ2 , ... , λP ) (Lambda) - (px1) vetor dos coeficientes da regressão de y em η γ = ( γ1, γ2, ... γq ) (Gama) - (qx1) vetor dos coeficientes da regressão de η em x ξ = (ξ1, ξ2 , ... , ξP ) (KSI) - (px1) vetor da medida dos erros aleatórios de y ζ (Zeta) - Escalar correspondendo ao erro aleatório de η Π (λP x γq ) (PI) - Matriz de coeficientes Ψ = Var(ζ) = E(ζ2) (Psi) - Variância do erro aleatório (ζ) de η Θ = E(ξ.ξ’) = Cov(ξ) (Theta) - Covariância de (KSI)
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Variável Definição Fonte
Indicadoras
CRES Produto Interno Bruto IBGE - SCN NTSCT Número de Trabalhadores sem Carteira de Trabalho - SP IBGE - PME
Causais
DIGPDI Taxa de Inflação - Índice Geral de Preços - Disponibilidade Interna IPEADATA - FGV DESEMP Taxa de Desemprego - Brasil IBGE - PME DTRADE Índice das Importações e Exportações pelo PIB IPEADATA – FUNCEX RDPOC Renda Disponível pela População Ocupada Total Vide Nota 1 SALMIM Salário Mínimo Min. Trab. NTCCT Número de Trabalhadores com Carteira de Trabalho - SP IBGE - PME
CTRIB* Carga Tributária Total SRF - MPAS POC*
População Ocupada Total IBGE - PME
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M3#/λγ 0
Variáveis Modelo 1 Modelo 2 Modelo 3 Modelo 4
Indicadoras
CRES [+] λ1
1,0000 1,0000 1,0000 1,000
NTSCT [+] λ2
2,0074 (0,4946) 4,0587
2,0184 (0,500) 4,0319
1,9809 (0,481) 4,1140
1,9919 (0,4874) 4,0867
Causais DIGPDI [+] γ1
0,0049
(0,0352) 0,1389
0,0058 (0,035) 0,1657
0,0057 (0,035) 0,1592
0,0066
(0,0356) 0,1854
DESEMP [+] γ2
0,1110 (0,0674) 1,6465
0,1063 (0,066) 1,6106
0,1169 (0,068) 1,6991
0,1120 (0,0673) 1,6642
DTRADE [ - ] γ3
0,0115 (0,0360) 0,3200
____ 0,0122 (0,036) 0,3324
____
RDPOC [ - ] γ4
-0,1336 (0,0531) -2,5175
-0,1341 (0,053) -2,5254
-0,1300 (0,052) -2,4952
-0,1307 (0,0522) -2,5038
SALMIM [ ? ] γ5
0,0243 (0,0358) 0,6778
0,0244 (0,035) 0,6854
____ ____
NTCCT [ - ] γ6
-0,2591 (0,0933) -2,7756
-0,2582 (0,093) -2,7644
-0,2631 (0,094) -2,7989
-0,2623 (0,0940) -2,7904
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M#3E#/λγ 0
Variáveis Modelo 1 Modelo 2 Modelo 3 Modelo 4
Indicadoras
CRES [+] λ1
0,5440 0,5425 0,5476 0,5461
NTSCT [+] λ2
1,0920 1,0950 1,0847 1,0877
Causais
DIGPDI [+] γ1
0,0090 0,0107 0,0104 0,0121
DESEMP [+] γ2
0,2041 0,1960 0,2135 0,2051
DTRADE [ - ] γ3
0,0212 ____ 0,0223 ____
RDPOC [ - ] γ4
-0,2456 -0,2473 -0,2375 -0,2393
SALMIM [ ? ] γ5
0,0446 0,0449 ____ ____
NTCCT [ - ] γ6
-0,4763 -0,4760 -0,4804 -0,4803
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M3#
3I - DIAGRAMA PARA A ECONOMIA SUBMERSA COM OSPARÂMETROS PADRONIZADOS
@ !"#!! $%&&!"!'()*+,-&$%).$! "& "%(
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3 #B
0,800,901,001,101,201,301,40
ago/
94
ago/
95
ago/
96
ago/
97
ago/
98
ago/
99
Índ
ice
N3I 4#3 3
3 #
0,800,901,001,101,201,301,40
ago/
94
ago/
95
ago/
96
ago/
97
ago/
98
ago/
99
Índ
ice
3I 4#3 3
3 #
0,80
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
ago/94 ago/95 ago/96 ago/97 ago/98 ago/99
Índi
ce
.! $!%.!% % !$%5)6 %& A
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3 #
0,800,901,001,101,201,301,40
ago/
94
ago/
95
ago/
96
ago/
97
ago/
98
ago/
99
Índ
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3I 4#3 3
3
0,800,901,001,101,201,301,40
ago/
94
fev/9
5
ago/
95
fev/9
6
ago/
96
fev/9
7
ago/
97
fev/9
8
ago/
98
fev/9
9
ago/
99
Índ
ice
Modelo 1 Modelo 2 Modelo 3 Modelo 4
" %" " :$" 6"$ %"# "AA& "%" %"
# " )& % "# "$ "7$C 6# %$%$" " "C&
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#3 3 IJ
BAA JBAAA
Período Valor
Médio do Índice
Evolução do Índice
Agosto/94 – Julho/95
0,93
-
Agosto/95 – Julho/96 1,03 10,75% Agosto/96 – Julho/97 1,04 0,97% Agosto/97 – Julho/98 1,15 10,58% Agosto/98 – Julho/99 1,23 6,96% Média Total do Período 1,08 26,00% Desvio-padrão
0,12
Coeficiente de Variação
11%
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3
0,80
0,90
1,00
1,10
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1,30
1,40
ago/
94
fev/9
5
ago/
95
fev/9
6
ago/
96
fev/9
7
ago/
97
fev/9
8
ago/
98
fev/9
9
ago/
99
Índ
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PIB
Modelo 1 Modelo 2 Modelo 3 Modelo 4
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P
B
Variável Teste ADF CRES
I(0)
NTSCT I(0) IGPDI * I(1) DESEMP I(0) TRADE * I(1)
CTRIB I(0) RDPOC I(0) STCCT I(0) SALMIM I(0) NTCCT
I(0)
Q333ID3
&'J@AE@ &' 3" "" $$"6$#$V"
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K[&)*DD'#"6$ '
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,! !&,& "%(-N $.""$$&)**)'
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