金融政策の正常化ペースに注意 - 三菱ufj国際投信f Ë · l ¸2015 0 Ç imf world...
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グローバル時代の投資戦略
金融政策の正常化ペースに注意
2018 年 春号
巻末の「本資料に関してご留意頂きたい事項」および「本資料中で使用している指数について」を必ずご覧ください。
1
2008 9 10
2009-17 2.5 11.1% NY2.8 12.2% 4.3 17.8% MSCI 2.0
8.3% 271 7
10
202018 2.5% 19 2.1% 20 2.0% 18
2.4% 19 1.9% 20 1.7% 18 2 3
. 10
.
.
201810
3
2019 2018 4,0009 300 40
1
4 18 4 5 5 25
11 6 6 13 9 970 9
CIA
94 2005 6 2012
2
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6.
5.
3.
2.
1.
4.
P3 – 10
P11 – 14
P15 – 18
P19 – 24
P25 – 34
P35 – 40
P41 – 50
P51 – 60
P61 – 64
P65 – 73
3
IMF Bloomberg
GDP % IMF 2018 1
GDP
2018 2017
IMF 2018 1 2018:+3.9% 2017 10 +3.7% 2019 :+3.9% +3.7%
2018 :+2.3% +2.0% 2019 :+2.2% +1.8%
2018 :+4.9% +4.9% 2019 :+5.0% +5.0% 2017
IMF World Economic Outlook 2017 10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.91.2 1.3 2.1 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.22.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.5
0.9 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.01.5 2.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.91.3 1.9 3.1 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.53.6 2.1 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.9 3.0
5.4 5.1 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.07.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.67.9 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.45.5 6.4 7.5 8.0 7.1 6.7 7.4 7.83.0 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.61.9 3.0 0.5 3.8 3.5 1.1 1.9 2.12.4 4.9 3.9 4.7 3.2 5.2 4.0 3.83.6 2.5 1.1 2.2 0.4 2.2 2.2 2.13.7 1.8 0.7 2.8 0.2 1.8 1.7 1.54.4 5.3 5.1 3.4 1.4 2.7 3.3 3.5
2015 IMF World Economic Outlook 2017 10 2016 2019 IMF World Economic Outlook Update 2018 1 2017 2018 2019 IMF
2010 2008 7 2018 2
3.2
1.2
4.3
-4-3-2-10123456789
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
IMF%
0
50
100
150
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
/
WTI2008 7
2014 62011 4
2016 22008 12
4
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2016
PMI
Bloomberg
2017
PMI PMI
PMI 2018 2
Bloomberg
6251 52 53 55 57 5938 42 45 47 49 502018 2 1
Bloomberg
PMI 2018 2
2015 2016 1 2017 3 20182018
20172007 2008 2009 20182010 2011 2012 2013 20162014 2015
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
0.50%
1.75%
0.00%
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
1.50%
1.75%
1.25%
0.50%
1 : 2018 3 28 2 (FF ) 3 2013 4 4 ( ) 4 : ( ) ( ) 5 2010 5 18 1 6 2011 5 29 2013 9 15
1 7 2016 8 18 BI 7
Bloomberg
2017 9
2015 1 2015 12 2016 3 2016 12 2017 10
2016 1 0.1% 2016 9
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
1.50%
1.50%
1.375%
6.00
4.25%
3.00%
3.25%
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
(%)
7.25%
1.50%
8.00%
6.50%
6.50%
7.50%
4.50%
6
2018
2003 17 GDP
IMF 2003 5 2018 3 28
IMF Bloomberg
1 1 2018 3 28
Bloomberg Thomson Reuters Datastream
189 37 152 IMF
2018 2
IMF Bloomberg
WTI Bloomberg
2018 3 28
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
5.3%
%
2004-06
2008
2010
2013-152011
2014
2015
0.8%
2.7%
0.50 2.7 2.2 0.50 1.6 2.10.50 2.2 1.7 0.10 1.5 1.60.00 1.1 1.11.25 2.2 0.91.75 2.2 0.51.50 1.9 0.41.75 1.6 0.28.00 10.3 2.33.00 3.9 0.94.25 3.2 1.14.35 2.9 1.56.00 4.4 1.63.25 1.4 1.87.50 5.3 2.26.50 4.0 2.56.50 2.8 3.77.25 2.2 5.1
-2-10123456789
101112
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
+5.0%
%2008 2013-15
2011
2014
+1.1%
+3.5%
406080
100120140160180200220240260280300320340360
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
2005 =100
7
FRB ECB Thomson Reuters Datastream
MSCI ACWI 2018 2 2018 2 2018 3 2019 3
2018 3 200 4-6 300 7-9 400 10-12 500 2019 1-3 600 2018 9 300 10-12 200 2019 1-3 100
50 2018 2
FRB 2014 10 QE3 32015 12 2017 10
2009
2018
GDP M3
OECD IMF Thomson Reuters Datastream
MSCI ACWI GDP
2017 12 GDP 7-9
2014 1 2014 11 2015 12 2017 10
2015 122016 122017 32017 6
2017 122018 3
3100
2017 4
1 850 7502 750 6504 650 5505 550 4507 450 3508 350 25010 250 150
2017 4 800 6002018 1 600 3002018 10 300
050100150200250300350400450500550600
02468
10121416182022
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
6080
100120140160180200220240260280300320
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
2002 10-12 =100
GDP
8
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
1993 =100
0
2
4
6
8
10
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
%
1.5 1.75%FF
FF
+3.5%
-40-20
020406080
100
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
%
0246810121416-25
-20-15-10
-505
1015
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
% %
1999-2000 2004-06
1990 1 9 2000 4 2002 9 2007 11 2009 2 1 MSCI World MSCI EM 1989 12
S&P REIT 1993 12 J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified 1990 1 The BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index 2018 2
2 CBO An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027 2017 8 FF 2018 3 2018 10-12 2017 10-12
3 5,000 1 4 7 10 2018 1 4 J.P.Morgan Domestic HY Default Rate (Par Amount 2018 1 2
MSCI S&P CBO FRB J.P.Morgan Securities LLC Bloomberg
9.2
9.2
7.8
7.3
5.9
4.7
%1993
9
8,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
20162 1214,952
20166 2414,952
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
20162 1115,660
20158 2515,666
80100120140160180200220240260
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012 =100
20162 11
20159 4
20161 212015
9 8
90100110120130140150
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012 =100
6 26
2015 6 10
406080
100120140160180
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012 =100
2016 2 11
90100110120130140150160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012 =100
20162 11
2 17
80100120140160180200220240260280
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012 =100
2016 1 20
2015 8 25
2015 9 4
80100120140160180200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012 =100
20161 20
1 21
2018
2015 8 2016 12016 2
2016 112017 2018
S&P MSCI BofA Bloomberg
MLP Alerian MLP Total Return Index The BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Total Return Index REIT S&P REIT S&P500
S&P500 25 BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index MSCI EM J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified
2018 3 28
NY
MLP
10
020406080
100120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
/
2016 2 1126.21
-3,000-2,000-1,000
01,0002,0003,000
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017456789
10111213
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
2016 1-2 +5.4%
464850525456586062
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
2016 1 47.8
9095
100105110115120125130
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
2012 =100
0123456789
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
6789101112
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
GDP +
%
0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
9095
100105110115120125130135
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012 =100 %
10
WTI Bloomberg 10 OITP
2018 3 28 ISM 2018 2 1-2
2018 1 7-9 6
2016
2014 20152016
ISM BIS IMF Bloomberg
ISM
11
-8-6-4-202468
1012
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
106 36 58 12 92 120 73 105
1989 +3.6% 1990 2008 +2.8%2009 +1.6%
-4-202468
10121416
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%1989 +5.0%
1990 2008 +3.0%
2009 +1.5%
01020304050607080
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
19871990-91
2010
2015
2008
1997
2001 9.11 2003
1998
2011
19734
19791962
1963F
02468
101214161820
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
1989 7.0% 1990 2008 4.2%
2009 0.4%
02468
101214161820
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
1989 7.6% 1990 2008 5.6%
2009 2.4%
NBER 2018 3 FF 1970 12 FF 2008 12
VIX CBOE Volatility Index S&P500 1989
GDP 2017 10-12 2018 2 FF 10 3 FRB NBER Bloomberg
GDP
FF
2018 FRB
10
12
2007 GDP
FRB Bloomberg
GDP IMF World Economic Outlook 2017 10 GDP
2018 3 16 IMF Bloomberg
GDP
2006 2008
2017 7-9 10-12
BIS BIS
GDP
1970 12 1977 12 2006 3
2017 9
1990 2000
2018 2
2017 10-12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
=100
133
153
100
165
75
172
161
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
GDP 100
2007 10108 2017 12
102
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1970 1978 1986 1994 2002 2010 2018
2000 1 =100 %
NY
GDP
GDP
30405060708090
100110120130140150160170180
1970 1978 1986 1994 2002 2010 2018
%
IT
54
163
76
73
113
103
13
020406080100120140160
050
100150200250300350400450
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
2000 3
2008 7
2007 10
2000 9
1989 =100 /
2
FF 2008 12 1998 12 2013 3 2013 4 2016 8
2000 8 1 2018 3
MSCI AC WTI 2018 2
MSCI NBER Bloomberg
2000 3 2007 10
2000 4 2006 11-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%S&P500
10 2
1.388%2012/7/24
1.359%2016/7/8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
10
2 10
2
Bloomberg 2018 3 28
-10123456789
10
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
2000 8
1999 6
1999 11
2006 7
2004 62005 12 2015 12
%
2000 5
2000 102006 6
2008 7
2007 2
2
FRB
14
GDP
OECD CPB
GDP 12 2018 1
Major
2018 3 16 FRB
2018
GDP G20 20 1999 1-3 GDP 2017 7-9 10-12
-4,000
-3,500
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
2000
2007GDP
2010GDP
5060708090
100110120130140150160170
1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017
1973 3 =100
Jr
1995 8
" "
1985 9
" "
1987 2
" "
197810
1985 2
1995 4
2002 1
2016 2G20
2011 5
2016 12
1993
2011 8
2008 9
1989 2018 1
""
2018
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
%
GDP
IT9.11
25% 10%
1 23
1 24
3 8
3 22
15
2014 6 2016 1 1 =28
2017 1 OPEC 2017 5 122018 12
OPEC 6 22
OPEC
IMF Bloomberg
IMF
EIA Energy Information Administration Bloomberg OPEC IMF
CPI
2017 1
OPEC
2016 201720174-6
20177-9
201710-12
201712
20181
20182
109.0 104.3 105.4 105.5 101.4 103.7 102.6 103.1 115 103.9 64.7
172.5 163.8 164.8 164.1 163.3 162.2 159.6 161.3 171 167.3 -
54.5 53.0 53.0 53.6 52.6 52.3 51.9 52.0 56 52.2 -
16.0 13.5 13.7 13.0 13.1 12.9 13.7 13.0 15 - -
22.1 20.0 20.3 19.9 19.9 19.7 20.0 19.1 22 19.3 -
351.5 381.2 379.3 383.3 382.3 382.2 381.8 381.3 400 379.7 51.3
439.2 444.7 445.5 448.2 440.1 441.6 445.0 442.5 470 435.1 54.3
285.3 270.8 270.9 270.7 270.4 270.0 270.6 270.2 300 270.7 49.1
39.0 81.7 70.9 93.2 96.7 96.2 98.7 99.6 100 71.3
155.6 165.8 159.4 176.3 176.2 181.8 178.1 180.6 190 -
65.6 60.7 61.3 60.3 60.4 60.2 60.5 60.2 78 61.8 52.9
1,040.6 995.3 996.0 999.4 997.1 995.3 997.6 998.2 1,150 1,005.8 83.8
UAE 297.9 291.5 291.1 292.2 289.2 287.0 286.2 282.7 315 287.4 67.0
215.4 191.6 196.4 192.9 177.0 164.7 160.1 154.8 190 197.2 -
3,264.2 3,237.9 3,228.0 3,272.6 3,239.7 3,229.8 3,226.4 3,218.6 3,571.5 3,260.4 -
280.0
1974 111.7
1981 1038.3
1986 78.6
1990 939.9
1999 29.8
2008 6136.0
2008 1241.9
20146
110.7
2018 265.38
2016 128.3
0
50
100
150
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
/1CPI 2004 12 =34.5
2007-082008 9 10 OPEC 522008 9 152008 10 24 OPEC 1502008 12 17 OPEC 220
1990 81979 1
1997 7
1973 10 1985 7OPEC OPEC
1980 9 1988 8
2003 2007
CPI
2016 11 30OPEC 1202017 5 25 11 30OPEC
2013-14
16
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2018 21,028.3
OPEC
2017 13,260.4
OPEC
2018 23,218.6
2019+34
2018+42
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2005 2010 2015
2018-2019
OPEC
OPEC 2017 2018 2019
EIA OPEC
2015 2017 1 OPEC2017
EIA 2018 2019 OPEC2018 2019 OPEC
2018 10%
EIA 2018 3 6 EIA
OPEC
EIA OPEC
EIA 2018 3 6 EIA
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
9,381 9,672 9,721 9,795 9,893 10,039 10,139 10,172 10,128 10,218 10,271 10,285
OECD 2,580 2,684 2,654 2,729 2,865 2,953 2,992 3,064 3,064 3,083 3,069 3,112
1,412 1,512 1,486 1,556 1,669 1,741 1,784 1,828 1,827 1,854 1,847 1,869
875 941 886 932 1,025 1,058 1,079 1,117 1,130 1,130 1,114 1,134
537 571 600 624 644 683 705 711 697 724 733 735
OECD 6,801 6,988 7,067 7,066 7,028 7,086 7,147 7,109 7,064 7,135 7,202 7,173
3,689 3,824 3,923 3,928 3,925 3,927 3,958 3,964 3,956 3,947 4,008 4,019
3,047 3,167 3,268 3,244 3,235 3,232 3,260 3,262 3,250 3,262 3,289 3,292
642 657 655 684 690 695 698 702 705 712 719 727
9,358 9,535 9,687 9,850 9,950 9,965 10,082 10,080 10,120 10,242 10,254 10,252
OECD 4,560 4,629 4,674 4,720 4,738 4,685 4,808 4,805 4,778 4,729 4,846 4,839
1,910 1,983 1,969 1,988 2,004 2,024 2,069 2,041 2,037 2,067 2,103 2,074
1,354 1,383 1,404 1,433 1,404 1,429 1,474 1,445 1,404 1,425 1,476 1,445
425 412 403 394 429 346 357 393 421 341 354 390
OECD 4,798 4,906 5,012 5,130 5,212 5,280 5,274 5,275 5,342 5,413 5,408 5,413
1,164 1,238 1,281 1,326 1,398 1,374 1,340 1,364 1,442 1,415 1,380 1,404
+23 +137 +34 55 57 +74 +57 +92 +8 24 +17 +33
OPEC
2019
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018
17
2015 6 1,038.1
2017 2
1
Bloomberg Bloomberg 2018 3 9
2018 3 9
2018 3 9
Bloomberg
12 2018 3 16
Bloomberg
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2017 3 315.4
2016 4 295.1
2015 4 244.6
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
18
2017 11 800
+20%
2016 1-3 2017 10-12 12 15
7 2018 2 798 +27%2017 9 +20%
IEA MEDIUM-TERM OIL MARKET REPORT 2014
EIA
2018 2
S&P 2017 10-12
Bloomberg
EIA Bloomberg
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
AnadarkoAppalachiaBakkenEagle FordHaynesvilleNiobraraPermian
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
201410 101,609
20165 27
316
20183 16
800
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
4013%
40 6066%
60 8018%
80 3% International Energy Agency IEA EIA
19
30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
2016-20
+7.0%
2021-25
+5.9%
2026-30
+5.0%
( )
(%)
1991-2000:
+10.5%1981-1990:
+9.4%
2001-15:
+9.6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1980 2010 2040
(15-64 )
(65 )
(0-14 )
( )
(%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
GDP
( : )
/GDP( : )
( )
(%)
CEIC Bloomberg
2015 World Bank “China 2030” 5 2015 2020 2050 (World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision )
2016
( )
( )
GDP ( )
GDP ( ) GDP ( )
GDP ( )
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
3
( )
52%
240%
2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
( )
15%
19%
2017
30323436384042444648505254
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
( )
44%
39%
2017
20
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
(%)
)
( )
1986-2008
2009
2016
2016
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(%)
( )
( )
( )
) 3
(%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1995 2010
( )
( )
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 2010
( )
( )
( )
World Steel Association (PBoC) BIS CEIC
2015 2017 9 2017 11
2017 9
( ) ( )
( ) GDP ( )
( ) ( )
-10-8-6-4-202468
1012
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
( )
+2.9%
+3.7%
2018 2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%)
)GDP
( )
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014 2015 2016 2017
( )
( )
( )
) +
( )
( )
( )
(%)
2017 12
5.2%
1.7%
2008 12 2017 927.1 46.3
114.2 210.5) 96.3 162.5
17.9 48.0
( ) GDP (%)
21
2018 3
2017 PM2.5
2017 2018 3
2017 11 3PM2.5
HP
11 52006-2010
12 52011-2015
13 52016-2020
GDP 20%19.1%
16%18.2%
15%
SO2 10%14.3%
8%18.0%
10%
10%12.5%
10%12.9%
10%
5
2017 2 11 15 3 15 50% 2018 3 85-90%
STATEAIR MISSION CHINA
Bloomberg
PM2.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
3
2017 1 7 222
2016 1 3 226
2016 2017 2018
6.5-7.0%6.7%
6.5%6.9%
6.5%
3.0%2.0%
3.0%1.6%
3.0%
13.0%11.3%
12.0%8.2%
-
10.5%8.1%
9.0%7.2%
-
1,0001,314
1,1001,351
1,100
4.5%4.0%
4.5%3.9%
4.5%
- - 5.5%
3.0% 3.0% 2.6%
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
( )
( )
20181
(52)
(5)
(13)708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240
2011 2013 2015 2017
(1)
(1)(1)
( )
) (1)(2)2011 1 =100
(1)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
2015 3 ( )2009
2016 9
CEIC Bloomberg
2018 2
70
CEIC CEIC
2018 1
2018 2
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
( )
) 3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
( )
1
2
3
23
10
GDP
2018 3 16 2018 2
2017 12 (PBoC) CEIC Bloomberg
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%)
( )
)3
024681012141618202224
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
12( )
12( )
(RRR)( )
(%) (%)
( )
4.35%
1.5%
17%
2018 3 16
02468
10121416182022
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
( )
GDP( )2017 10-12
+6.8%
( )2018 2
+7.2%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(%)
) 1-2 2
( )
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2015 2016 2017 2018
(%)
(SLF)
( )
) SHIBOR:SHIBOR 7
SHIBOR: 3
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
)3
( )
24
50
20162017 5
( )
(PBoC) (SAFE) CEIC Bloomberg
2018 2 2018 2 2018 3 16
2018 3 16 2 2017 7-9
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%)
) 3
( )
+9.4%
+7.3%
2018 2
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
( )
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%) ( )
( : )
( : )
)
( : )
( )
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2013 2015 2017 ( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
( )
( )
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.50.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
( : )
( )
( : )
( / )
( )
↕
25
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
( )
GDP( )
2017 10-12GDP+2.9%
-5
0
5
10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020( )
(%)
+2.8%+1.6%
3
4
5
6
7
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
( )
GDP( )
(1985 100) (%)
( )
69.1% 12.1%
12.6% 15.0%
3.9% 17.3%
0.1% (2017 )
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020( )
( )
( )
+
( - )
2017 10-12 GDP +2.9%+3.2%
1.8%
GDP
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1960 ~1989
1990 ~2017
(%)
+3.59%
+2.38%
GDP( )
2017 10-12 2018 1-3 2019 10-12
GDP
GDP
: 2017 10-12 2018 2 2017 10-12 : 2017 10-12 FRB NBER
26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
554
61.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
( )
( )
(%)
( )
( )
2018 2+31.3
2018 24.1%
2018 3 FOMC
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
(%)
( )
( )
GDP(
)
GDP( )
GDP( )
( )
( )
65
70
75
80
85
90
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
(%)
( )
(%)
( ) ( )
( )
2018 2 2018 2 2018 1 2017 10-12 2018 2 2018 1 GDP 2017 10-12 GDP CBO 2017 7
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
(%)
( )
60.859.5
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
( )
( )
2 +31.3
11 7-9
ISM
ISM NBER FRB CBO
GDP GDP
GDP
( )
( ) ( )
( )
27
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
(%)
( )
58%( )
:42%( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
-5-4-3-2-1012345678
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
(%)
( )
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
(%)
( )
FRB 5 5
15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
(%)
( )
+1.5%+1.7%
FRB
+2.0%
( )
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
(%)
( )
+2.6%+2.5%
+0.8%
1
2
3
4
5
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2001/11-2007/112007/12-2009/52009/6-2018/2
(%)
(%)
200111
20182
20096
()
2018 2 2017 10-12 2018 2 2007 3
2018 1 FRB5 5 2018 2 2018 3 2018 1 2018 1
( )
NBER FRB
( )
28
35
40
45
50
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
(%)
( )
(%)
/
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
(%)( )
( )
( )
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
( )
( )
(%)
(2007 8 100)
( )
( )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NY
S&P500
S&P500IT
(2003 100)
( )0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
( )(2003 100)
( )
( ) EPS IT
( )
2018 3 16 2018 1 EPS 12 2018 2 IT EPS 2017 12 / 2018 1 2018 2 2018 1 2017 10-12 2018 1 2017 10-12
Bloomberg MSCI I/B/E/S SIA NBER FRB
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
S&P
(20 )
(2000 1 100) ( )
/( )
/( )
( )
EPS 1
EPS(MSCI USA)
/
/
29
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(%)
( )
GDP
FF
2012 14.25%
2.4%
2016 92.875%
1.8%
1.8%
2018 32.875%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
<2018 >+0.75%
(0.25% 3 )
2017 2018 2019 2020
(%)
1.375%
2.125%
<2019 >+0.75%
(0.25% 3 ) 2.875%
3.375%2.75~3.0%
<2020 >+0.5%
(0.25% 2 )
2017 2018 2019
2018
2018.1.1
FOMC
FRB
FRB FOMC
2017.11.29
( )
2018.2.5 2017.10.13 2014.6.16-2023.2.5 -2021.10.13 -2026.1.31
2018 3 FOMCFF 0.25% 3
FOMC FF
2018 3 FOMC 2018 3
FOMC
(FF )
FRB
FOMC
FOMC FF GDP ( )
FRB
FOMC 15 (2018 3 ) 1
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
( )
( )
1.6
0.2
2.1
6,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
( )(% )
( )
NY( )
( )2.4
MBS( )1.8
( )
FF ( )
10( )
MBS2012 9 -2013 12 4002014 1 10
2013 1 -2013 12 4502014 1 10
1 7,250MBS
450
6,000
QE1 QE2 QE3
4.2 2.3MBS 1.8 2.1
0.0 0.2
2.4 1.6
0.2 0.5
4.4 4.4
0.8 0.1MBS - 0.0
- 0.10.8 0.8
0.1 0.0
0.9 0.9
FRB NY FF 10
QE1 3 1 3 FRB 2018 3 21 FF 10 NY 2018 3 23
FF 2008 12 16 0 0.25% Bloomberg FRB
FRB
2007 12 :
: 2018 3 21
2017 10
FRB QE2017 10 2017 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
( )
( )
MBS
( )
2018 3.8
2019 3.32020 2.9
( )
0
200
400
600
800
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
( )
( )
( )
050
100150200250300
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
( )
( )
( )
2017 10 60 MBS 40 5.7% 2001 FRB NY
FRB MBS FRB
FRB
2017 2018 2019 2020 2017-20
MBS 120 1,620 1,940 1,720 5,400180 2,290 2,700 2,290 7,460300 3,910 4,640 4,010 12,860
:
31
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
( )
19942 4
19996 30
20046 30
201512 16
FF
1010
-4-202468
1012141618
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
GDP( )
(%)
( )
2016 7 81.359%
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
( )
( )
( )
( )
10
FRB
10 FF
Bloomberg FRB
: GDP 2017 10-12 10 2018 3 23 : 2018 3 23 : 2017 10-12
GDP 10
(2005 2 FRB )2004 05
32
EPS
EPSEPS
FRB Bloomberg
2018 3 16 FF EPS Bloomberg
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
GDP ( )
( )
( )
( )
(%)( )
( ) 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
(%)
( )
( )
GDP ( )
CBO( )
CRFB
CRFB( )
93%
101%
113%
GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015( )
( )
2019
10 GDP 100%
2019
: 10 9 CRFB: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
CBO CRFB
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015( )
(%)
IS GDP
2019 3 2018 2
2017 7-9
NBER
34
2016
2018 3 22
J
(CIA)
2018.3.5 7
2018.4 8
2017.1.23
2018.1.25 CNBC TPP
2017.10.17 ( )
2017.7.16 1
2017.3
2017.8
2018.3.8
2018.3.14
600 6 4000
2018.3.15
ICT
NAFTA
TPP
WWE CEO
51
2018 3 8
2018 3 13
( )
2017.1.25
2017.9.5
2017.12.11
2018.3.14 DACA
2017.1-3 7
2017.4.18 H-1B
2017.12.6
2018.2.23 70
5
3 22
2017.12.22
2017.5.23 10 2,000
2018.1.30 1 5,000
2018.2.12 1 5,000
2000
2017.2.3
2017.6.8 ( 2018.3.15 ( ) 2017.1
2017.3.24 XL
2017.7.28
2017.12.22
101
) 2018 3 16
35
ECB
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
2017 10-12GDP
+2.4%
GDP
2018 1-3 2018 10-12
2.41.9
1.7 1.5
1.7
1.2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
GDP
ECB
%
2017 10-12+2.7%
2019 3= +2.9%
2019 3= +0.9%
ECB3
ECB GDP ECB
ECB ECB 2018 2019 20202018 3 GDP
ECB
2017 10-12 GDP +2.4%
+2.4% +2.4% +2.8%
ECB+1.1% ECB
1.4 1.4
1.21.4
1.7
1.5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
ECB
%
2018 2+1.1%
2019 3= +1.9%
2019 3= +0.9%
ECB3
ECB
36
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2008 GFC =100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2008 GFC =100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2008 GFC =100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2008 GFC =100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2008 GFC =100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
2008 GFC =100
2017 10-12
GFC = 2008 9
1 GDP
Thomson Reuters Datastream
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
3
%
0.1
2.2
%
Ifo
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
287
133
8.6
2017 7-9
20181
%
Thomson Reuters Datastream
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
% 2005 =100
IFO
+2.9
2018 1
2018 2126.3
+7.9
37
2018 1 ECB
ECB
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
% %
6
1.12018
2
2017 12
Thomson Reuters Datastream
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
% %
1.0
84.42017 12
20182
Thomson Reuters Datastream
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
% %
10
+8.5
20182
+0.2
Thomson Reuters Datastream
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
% %
9
+0.8
+1.1
2018 2
Thomson Reuters Datastream
38
ECB 2019 10
7%
2018 2.1%
M3
PMI
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
ECB
PSPP
M3
%
4.1%
2018 1
4.0%
2.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
%
%
20132017 10-12 :
20082012
19982002
20032007
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
%
201710-12
2.1%
201810-12
2.1%
R2=93%
Thomson Reuters Datastream ECB
Thomson Reuters Datastream
Thomson Reuters Datastream
Thomson Reuters Datastream
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
%
PMI
/
4.11
20177-9
2018 20.90
39
0.15% 0.4% 0.2%ECB 9 3
1 0.25%
ECB
ECB
ECB
PMI R2=53% ECBECB
Euro System ECB 2018 12 Euro System 1-30 ECB 33% 50% ECB
ECB 26.3% 20.7% 18.0%12.9% ECB Thomson Reuters Datastream
-6.0
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
%
3PMI
ECB
ECB
+0.15%
20182
ECB
%
ECB
EuroSystem
ECB 10
PE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015
PE24.2
11.4PE
20177-9
Thomson Reuters Datastream
Bloomberg Thomson Reuters Datastream
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
10
1 1
ECB 0.400.29
0.571
2018 3 16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2015/3 2017/3 2019/3 /
Euro System
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015/3 2017/3 2019/3
2018/12ECB
€4.8
€2.8
€2.0
ECB
40
BREXIT 2020
EU BREXIT 2020EU
EU
BREXIT
19 (EEA)(EFTA)
BREXITBREXIT
EU EEA EFTA
EU
EU
EU
EU
EEA (1994EU EFTA 100
EUOIS Overnight Index Swap 6
2019 3 BloombergBREXIT BOE Bloomberg
EU
EU EU
70
75
80
85
90
95-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
1.14%
BOE2018 2
BOE=2.0%
2020 32.16
%
3.0
0.50
2019 3EU
2018 1
2016 6
3 1577.48
2005 =100
3 16
2017 2018 20192020
41
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
2017 10-12 GDP +1.6% 8
8 2018
GDP
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
GDP
2017 10-12GDP+1.6%
2
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
% %
4.7
1.4
1.0
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1990 2000
%
GDP
2017 10-12 2018 1-3 2018 10-12
GDP GDP
GDP
GDP
2017 7-9
2017 10-12
42
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
%
100
2000
10
15
20
25
30
85
90
95
100
105
110
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
2010 100 %
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
2018 1
12
GDP
2016
2018 3 16
17.8
43.6
37.8
0.8
2017 3
2018 4 8
4 17-185 959
3 92021 9
122019 4
4 305 17 201310 8% 10%
2020 7 24 8 92020
3 260 180 2 1
2021 39
43
19801989 12
4
2017 10-12 2018 2 2018 1 1 Bloomberg
4 GDP
2017 10-12 GDP
GDP 4 .
GDP 2017 10-12 2018 1
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP
GDP40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2015 100 2011 100
GDP
103.0 1997 10
118.11994 4-6
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,00055,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
38,957.441989 12 29
6,994.90 2008 10 28
22,750.701996 6 26
2009 1-3
-20-10
010203040
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
%
44
32.0
26.1
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
201710-12
26.28.1
7.2
5.4
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
%
201710-12
IT
GDP
2017 10-12 R&D
2010 2015 -1.4 1.1 0.273.5 3.5 0.061.9 1.9 0.03
2017 10-12
8090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
1991 =100
2016
OECD
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
2017 10-12 GDP 2015
0.9% 0.4%
1990
45
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% %
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
25
GDP1 2.4% 25
2%
3% 2%
2.4
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
41980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
GDP
%
2018 1
2018 1
2018 1 6
GDP
2018 1 GDP 2017 10-12 GDP GDP % GDP GDP GDP
2018 1 6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1 2 3 4 5 6
%
%
2018 12.40%
46
+2%2019
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
%
2%
2018 1
0102030405060708090100110120130140150
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2018 253.5
%
2018 2 2017 12 2019 3
+2%
5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
% %
+0.9
+0.4
2018 1+6.7
2018 2 2017 12 ETF J-REIT 2018 2 CP
2017 12 ETF 2018 3 16
Bloomberg
2017 2 2018 2
376.4 430.0 53.5 919.8 47% 80
ETF 12.3 18.3 6.0 29.1 63% + 6
J-REIT 0.37 0.46 0.09 11.8 4% + 900
3.2 3.3 0.1 76.3 4%CP 2.4 2.3 0.1 12.5 18%
487.9 533.2 45.3
/
2%
2%
0.1
10
47
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ETF
-6-4-202468
1012141618202224
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,200
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
PER
EPS
2018 3 2912.54
15.3
1,687+20.4%
1,783+5.7%
2018
:
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1989 12 2938,957.44
2018 3 2921,159.08
1998 10 912,787.90
1995 7 314,295.90
1992 8 1914,194.40
2008 10 286,994.90
100.038,957.44
0.06,994.90
23.614,538.06
50.022,976.17
2016 6 2414,864.01
1996 6 2622,750.70
61.826,747.75
1989 61.8%
EPS
2017 1 19891991 11 26 2 4
61.8% 26,747 2018ETF
1980 1
Bloomberg
2018 3 29
Bloomberg
2018 3 29 EPS PER PER 2011 13.2
17.5 1 EPS 2018 Bloomberg
Bloomberg
PER EPS
2018 3 3 2018 3 29 2013 1 1
- Bloomberg
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
EPS
48
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
% %
2017 10-12 4
1-
GDP
2017 10-12
2018 3 16 TOPIX100 TOPIX400 TOPIX Small TOPIX
TOPIX Bloomberg
TOPIX100 TOPIX400 TOPIX Small TOPIX TOPIX
260 2010 2 8 2018 3 16 Bloomberg
0.41
0.53 TOPIX0.47
0.55
0.70
0.42
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
%
%
49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
199060.1
97.7
59.1
2018
33.7
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
15-64
20081 2,808
19958,726
20171 2,672
20177,596
20609,284
20604,793
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
%
1.9% 3.1%1.3% 2.0%
2020
20201.8%1.9%
20163.0%
2027+0.1%
1.3%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
194712.5
20051.26
19672.23
19474.54
65
20161.44
20162.2
2018
1990
2020 201910 1.7
2016 2017 2018
GDP
2018 1 23
2017 2027
1
2018
33.7
42.5
23.8
50
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2018
1,107
2017 121,880
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2010 2012 2014 2016 20180
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
201712
1.2%
1.3%
43.3%
5.0%
43.2%
6.1%
2018 1
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
%
VaR2003 6
1998 12
1987 9
1994 1
10
2018 3 16 VaR Bloomberg
2018 3 16
Bloomberg
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2015 2016 2017 2018
%
10
2
20
2016 9 21
51
20002012
2000
2000
2017-21 IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook (2017 10
2017-21 IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook (2017 10
5 2015
World Population Prospects : The 2017 Revision
2017-22 IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook (2017 10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(%)
: a
1980 1990 2000
: b:a- b
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
( )
207558.5
20757.3
2015
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(%)
1980 1990 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(%)(%)
1980 1990 2000
GDP
GDP
52
2013-15
2000 2013-15
20162013
Fitch Ratings 2018 (2018 3 16 ) (c) (e) (h) 2018 5 (d) (PPP) (GNI) (i) (j) (l) (m) (
) ( ) (n) =
= (o) / --
Fitch Ratings
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) (m) (n) (o)
GDP
GDP
(GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP )
(10 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ( )5,013 127 -0.1 42,870 1.4 25.1 24.0 1.0 -4.1 233.4 3.9 -190.7 22.6 96.3 15.0
20,284 327 0.7 58,030 2.7 16.9 20.1 1.5 -4.9 101.3 -2.9 292.8 85.9 20.3 1.03,902 82 0.3 49,530 2.5 27.3 19.7 0.9 1.0 61.3 7.4 -45.5 35.5 41.3 1.0
869 17 0.3 50,320 2.4 31.9 21.3 0.7 0.6 55.2 8.9 6.3 72.6 50.0 0.0268 6 0.4 43,400 2.4 24.3 22.8 0.7 -1.3 60.5 -0.1 104.3 71.3 32.8 1.0
2,513 65 0.4 42,380 2.1 22.0 20.9 0.8 -2.6 96.3 -0.9 89.2 65.4 40.8 3.0521 12 0.6 46,010 1.6 26.1 23.9 1.3 -1.2 102.1 0.7 -18.7 33.3 50.2 1.0364 5 0.5 56,870 3.5 57.6 33.5 0.3 -0.2 66.2 2.1 24.9 17.0 10.7 0.0
2,024 61 0.3 38,230 1.5 21.4 18.2 0.5 -1.7 129.9 2.8 140.3 45.7 22.9 3.01,394 46 -0.1 36,340 2.6 23.5 20.8 0.4 -2.4 96.9 2.0 190.4 51.7 26.2 2.0
230 10 -0.4 29,990 2.2 19.8 15.3 0.8 -1.3 123.0 0.7 200.8 58.4 37.4 2.0212 11 -0.5 26,900 2.1 11.7 15.7 -0.1 0.5 178.7 -0.5 332.8 33.9 62.2 1.0336 6 0.4 51,040 2.0 27.1 21.4 0.6 -0.3 35.0 8.3 -25.6 27.3 66.9 4.0562 10 0.8 50,000 2.6 30.2 25.2 1.1 0.4 37.6 3.5 39.3 27.9 112.8 4.0
2,868 67 0.7 42,100 1.4 16.2 17.3 1.5 -2.6 85.6 -4.4 77.6 0.0 15.7 1.0409 5 1.1 62,510 2.4 31.6 29.1 2.3 3.9 33.4 6.3 -63.7 49.8 82.5 5.0
1,769 37 1.0 43,420 2.0 20.7 22.8 1.6 -1.2 89.9 -2.7 133.3 26.7 38.9 2.01,463 2 3.1 45,970 2.7 27.1 27.6 1.9 -2.0 42.1 -2.9 231.1 34.4 79.3 2.0
208 5 1.8 37,860 2.8 24.4 23.5 1.2 0.4 30.8 -2.6 175.5 48.2 44.4 3.0332 6 1.2 85,050 2.8 50.1 26.0 0.3 13.4 42.3 19.0 -118.9 25.3 130.1 6.0358 7 0.7 60,530 3.0 25.4 25.4 2.7 2.8 30.0 3.7 -101.9 13.3 158.1 6.0609 24 0.2 -- 2.5 32.9 20.3 0.8 -1.2 41.8 13.4 -248.7 1.6 358.9 15.0
13,393 1,417 0.5 15,500 6.5 45.2 43.4 1.9 -3.8 47.4 1.1 -112.5 6.3 282.5 14.01,642 52 0.5 35,790 2.9 38.1 32.8 1.3 0.8 39.1 4.7 -66.4 10.4 275.3 7.0
376 31 1.3 26,900 5.4 32.8 25.5 2.8 -2.8 49.6 2.2 -23.6 8.7 100.3 5.0494 69 0.3 16,070 3.8 39.4 19.8 0.6 -1.6 33.0 9.2 -69.9 5.7 283.9 9.0
2,848 1,355 1.2 6,490 7.3 26.8 27.4 4.8 -6.6 69.2 -1.9 -2.0 6.9 175.0 8.0339 107 1.6 9,400 6.8 15.6 20.5 2.8 -2.5 34.3 -0.4 -31.6 5.1 379.0 8.0
1,087 267 1.2 11,220 5.3 32.8 34.4 4.7 -2.7 28.5 -1.8 30.6 17.0 105.1 7.0268 97 1.1 6,050 6.6 24.9 23.4 3.0 -5.3 48.4 1.5 5.9 1.1 395.8 3.0
93 21 -0.1 11,970 4.7 23.8 30.9 4.7 -4.8 77.3 -2.6 149.2 15.0 72.6 4.0249 11 0.1 32,710 3.5 35.7 26.0 1.2 0.8 33.5 0.9 -24.5 6.0 134.9 8.0365 8 1.6 37,400 2.9 21.8 20.2 0.1 -3.3 62.2 2.9 -132.3 7.2 336.2 12.0713 34 2.4 55,760 1.1 32.0 25.1 2.3 -5.8 16.1 1.5 -170.8 3.3 1,393.4 23.0583 38 -0.1 26,770 3.6 24.2 19.3 0.7 -2.3 52.4 -1.3 58.4 23.6 72.0 5.0366 57 1.5 12,860 2.3 18.2 18.4 5.5 -3.4 57.0 -3.1 47.9 9.0 101.8 5.0226 20 -0.5 22,950 3.8 24.1 26.4 0.8 -3.4 39.5 -3.3 41.2 16.5 114.3 5.0
1,687 147 0.4 22,540 2.0 29.6 21.9 7.4 -0.6 15.9 1.5 -99.4 23.5 318.3 12.060 7 -0.6 19,020 3.7 23.2 18.5 -0.2 -0.6 26.1 2.2 -22.0 7.3 273.4 9.0
924 82 1.6 23,990 4.1 27.2 29.3 9.1 -1.8 27.1 -5.5 125.4 31.8 79.4 4.0146 10 -0.3 25,640 3.8 30.2 18.7 1.1 -2.4 70.0 2.1 7.8 12.0 128.7 2.0301 18 0.8 23,270 3.0 23.5 20.6 3.4 -2.0 25.8 -1.8 36.6 21.4 94.4 4.0
62 3 0.4 21,090 2.9 19.5 18.6 8.1 -3.0 60.2 1.3 -66.6 11.0 319.7 12.0229 32 1.1 12,480 3.5 23.4 21.4 3.1 -3.3 25.3 -1.4 -11.9 12.5 235.1 12.0
1,222 131 1.3 17,740 2.2 22.1 22.3 4.1 -1.8 41.6 -2.1 8.0 7.9 108.3 4.0328 50 0.9 13,910 2.6 17.8 22.8 4.7 -2.3 48.2 -3.0 25.5 22.5 113.8 8.0
2,080 211 0.9 14,810 2.5 17.0 15.7 6.2 -7.7 76.4 -1.2 59.7 31.5 184.3 15.040 11 1.5 7,090 4.0 14.5 20.6 3.9 -4.4 38.2 -6.6 -19.4 11.0 429.7 8.0
603 45 1.0 -- 2.9 13.8 15.1 31.7 -5.9 60.0 -5.6 -2.6 18.9 123.9 7.044 32 1.4 19,021 -9.0 40.0 28.0 1,575.2 3.7 197.1 2.8 -347.0 50.8 24.3 4.0
53
2017 10-12 GDP +1.6%
2017 10-12
GDP
Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2017 10-12GDP
+1.6%
%
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2018 3102.96
2018 29.2
2017 10 12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
%
+2 3%
2017 10-12+1.9%+1.8%
2016 8 2 1.5%
54
5.5%
2017 5.9% 5.5% 5%
2017
2015 7 2016 8 100
2018 2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
%
2017 10-12+2.1%
2017 10-12+2.1%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
2018 15.5%
2017 10-129.0%
(%)
0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2018 3 16 70.5( )
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
%
2017 10-125.0%
2018 22.8%
55
2017 10-12 GDP +2.1%4.00%
2018 10
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
GDP( )
GDP( )
( )
(%) (%)
BCB CEIC
Fitch Ratings 1998 2016 2017-19
2018 10-12
Fitch Ratings
IBGE (BCB) Bloomberg (IBGE
GDP
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
GDP
(%)
2017 10-12GDP
+2.1%
( )
-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150200250300350400450
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
( )
( )
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
2017 3 21 6.50%
2018 2 +2.84%
56
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
%
2018 287.4
2018 1+3.2%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2018 2 53.2
2018 2 52.7
GDP2017 3 8.5% 7.5%
2017
Bloomberg
(BCB) CEIC
(IBGE) CEIC
Bloomberg
2005 9 100. 2017 11
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% %
2018 161.7
2018 17.5%
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
% %
2018 1+5.7%
2018 178.1%
57
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%)
GDP( )2004-05
2017 10-12GDP
+7.2%
( )
GDP( )2011-12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(%)
( )
)
2017 7-9
2017 10-12 GDP +7.2% +6.5% 2016 112017 7 (GST)
2018 2 +4.4% 2017 6 +1.5% 2016( 2017 3 ) GDP 0.7% 2012 4.8% 2017 10-12
2.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 ( )
(%) (%)
GDP( )
GDP( )
( )
Fitch Ratings 2016 2017-19
(RBI) CEIC
2017 10-12
Fitch Ratings
GDP
CEIC CEIC 2018 2
GDP 2014 7-9 2012 4-6 2017 10-12
-350-300-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150200250300350
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
( )
( )
58
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2011 2013 2015 2017
( )
2
(%)
) 2
( )
10
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( )-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
) 3
( )
2017 7
2017 2-3 8(6.25% 6%)
2015 2% ( )
(RBI) Bloomberg (RBI) Bloomberg
2018 3 16 : 2018 3 16 : 3 9
(RBI) CEIC Markit Bloomberg
(PMI)
2018 2 2018 2
3840424446485052545658606264666870 1,600
1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
( ) ( / )
( )
( )
59
2017 10-12 GDP +5.2%2 +3.2% 2017
8 9 2 (4.75% 4.5% 4.25%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 ( )
(%) (%)
GDP( )
GDP( )
( )
(BI) CEIC Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings 2016 2017-19
2017 10-12
CEIC (BI) CEIC
GDP ( )
: 2018 2 : 2018 3 16
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%)
GDP
2017 10-12GDP
+5.2%
( )0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%)
2016 8 19 (1 2):
( )
1(BI )
( )
2(7 )
-150
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
( )
( )
60
2016 7
4
2017 7-9 GDP +11.1% 2016 72016 7-9 GDP 0.8%
GDP
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%)
GDP2017 7-9
GDP+11.1%
( )
2018 3 16 2017 10-12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12.75%
9.25%
8.00%
7.25%
12.70%
%
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
( )
( )
0123456789
10111213141516
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
%
2018 2+10.2%+11.9%
+3 7%
61
1
17%
2018 3 27 1 18 3 20 18 2 18 11 52 10 10
2018 2018 3 27 CFTC Bloomberg
02468101214161820222426283032
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
8.88.1%
17%
18
110.81
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1020
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
/
1
-2.23 20
135.202002 1 31
125.862015 6 5
79.751995 4 19 75.32
2011 10 31
99.022016 6 24
147.641998 8 11
124.142007 6 22
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
/ /
1 125.86 2015 6 51 99.02 2016 6 2476.4% 1 119.5323.6% 1 105.35
75.32 125.86100.59
119.5376.4%
105.3523.6%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
+
%
15 12
16 1217 3
17 6
17 12 18 3
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2017 26,117
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1 7
1 7
1 3
9 9
1 8
9
/
62
11
1980
11
2018 3 27 2018 2 2018 2 201710-12 2018 2 FRB Bloomberg
-30
20
70
120
170
220
270
320
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
60708090
100110120130140150160
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
76.02018 2
1973 100
1973 100
134.161985 3 117.84
2002 2 101.172017 11
-2.2
-3.8
-2.6(17/4 )
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
1973 100
1973 100 %
" ”
63
1198.6
6.8 6.5 5.6 4.6
0.0 -4.0-4.2 -6.0-12.2
-12.9 -18.1
-26.0
-52.1-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050
44 2
2018 3 27 2018 3 23 2018 2 Broad61 MSCI World Index MSCI EM FRB BIS
MSCI Bloomberg
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
106.5
96.0
105.6
104.6
2018 2
1994 100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
1994 100
87.894.0
106.8
81.9
2018 2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
1969 1001987 100
2016 1
2016 2
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130-60-40-20
020406080
100120140160
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
JOC-ECRI
WTI
64
22.03852017/1/11
4567891011121314158
10121416182022242628
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
//
4.03612018/3/23
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.02000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
//
0.68272016/1/15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
//
4.24782015/9/24
20
30
40
50
60
70
801.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.52000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
//
85.95732016/1/21
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.02030405060708090
100110120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
//
68.86252016/11/24
0.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.2535
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
802000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
//
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
-750
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
WTI
/
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
WTI
/
2018 2
WTI 2018 3 27 18 2 2018 2 FRB IIF Bloomberg
65
10.1
7.9
MLP 7.9
6.1
4.8
0.1
7.5
6.6
6.3
5.1
4.3
7.1
6.4
5.6
2.6
1.9
%
%
%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
NY 2002 1 9 2007 11 2009 2 2015 3 92002 10 2007 10 2009 3 2015 2 2015 10 2018 2 MSCI KOKUSAI
MSCI JAPAN MSCI EM S&P REITMLP Alerian MLP Total Return Index
J.P. Morgan EMBI Global DiversifiedJ.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Broad
J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad DiversifiedThe BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index The BofA Merrill Lynch US High
Yield Index
2018 2 MSCI S&P BofA Bloomberg
MLP
2017 2001 =100
66
20% 2017 60 6.1
2,000 10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
+7.5%
+5.0%+2.0%
0.0%
16 8
19 427 6
12 0.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 5 10 15 20
5%
30% 20%
50% 40%
100+5%
20265
148
35
MSCI S&P BofA Bloomberg
1 2001 12 2018 2
10.1 7.9 7.9 6.1 4.80.1
7.5 6.6 6.3 5.1 4.3 7.1 6.4 5.6 2.6 1.9
83.778.2 81.1
65.1 66.1
39.2 41.2
61.7
40.3 38.2 34.4 39.4
61.2
44.0
10.6 10.1
62.7 61.748.8 52.6
46.653.2
32.041.0
20.733.4
20.2 21.431.8
24.5
5.0 4.3
-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
MLP
HY
H
HYH H
H
%
1
MLP
67
2007
MSCI S&P BofA Bloomberg
2007 2018 %
NY MSCI KOKUSAI MSCI JAPAN
MSCI EM S&P REIT MLP Alerian MLP Total Return Index
J.P. Morgan EMBI Global DiversifiedJ.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Broad J.P. Morgan
CEMBI Broad Diversified J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified The BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index The BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index
0.5% +0.5% 2018 2
2018
2007 20082009 MLP
2010 11
2012 20152016 17
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MLP MLP MLP
31.2 7.3 83.7 18.5 8.0 39.3 54.9 40.3 10.3 15.7 32.7 0.3
MLP < > < >MLP
9.1 3.7 81.1 14.7 6.9 33.8 54.8 22.2 1.6 15.1 20.1 0.6
< > < > < > < > < >< >
7.7 13.3 61.7 12.6 6.4 32.5 54.6 21.0 1.6 14.3 18.5 1.2
MLP < > < >< >
5.8 15.5 55.9 11.7 4.0 32.4 30.4 20.1 1.3 8.7 8.4 1.2
< > MLP < >< >
4.6 16.9 37.6 7.5 2.2 30.4 25.2 19.2 0.9 8.6 7.3 2.2
< > < > < >< > < >
< >< >
4.4 18.5 37.0 3.9 1.9 27.7 22.6 16.6 0.8 7.9 6.2 2.3
< > < > < > < >< > < >
2.6 27.0 33.9 3.0 1.8 25.6 19.1 16.1 0.6 7.8 6.2 2.4
< > < > < > < > < > < > < > < >
1.3 28.6 33.4 2.4 0.2 21.8 18.6 13.9 0.2 7.2 5.7 2.8
< > < > < >
0.1 29.7 33.2 1.9 0.1 20.9 15.0 11.7 0.9 5.7 4.5 4.6
< > < > MLP < >
0.4 40.3 28.5 0.7 1.0 18.2 13.6 9.8 4.3 4.0 4.4 5.1
< > < > < >
0.9 42.5 22.0 0.4 3.5 17.2 9.8 9.2 4.5 3.9 3.6 5.6
< > < > < >< >
< >
2.5 47.8 13.3 2.1 5.2 15.4 7.4 7.0 5.0 3.7 2.8 5.6
< > MLP < > < > < > < >
2.5 48.8 9.3 2.3 9.0 14.8 2.2 4.9 9.0 3.5 0.6 6.7
< >< >
< >
4.1 52.6 7.3 2.5 17.8 11.6 0.9 4.6 14.3 1.6 0.2 7.3
< > < > MLP
10.1 55.5 0.9 3.4 18.6 5.2 0.9 2.0 24.4 0.4 2.0 9.6
< > MLP MLP
16.7 62.0 0.3 12.6 22.4 1.8 5.7 5.6 32.3 2.7 9.9 13.1
16
1
3
4
5
6
7
10
11
13
2
15
8
9
14
12
68
IT2016
PER
MSCI Thomson Reuters Datastream I/B/E/S
MSCI USA MSCI WORLD MSCI EM
2018 3 16 MSCI Bloomberg
MSCI PER MSCI
%
%
Bloomberg
S&P500 S&P500 25
2018 3 16
Bloomberg
S&P500 S&P500 S&P 400 S&P 600 260
2001 1 1 2018 3 16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
1996 =100
S&P500
S&P500
020406080
100120140160180200220240
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
2011 =100
17.3
12.514.1
12.013.3
15.414.3
17.5 16.1 16.1
18.1
15.5
18.4
16.0
7.9
68
1012141618202224
PER2000-2017
PER 12 2018 3 12
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
0.822.3%
0.401.9%
0.601.5%
0.621.4%
69
AI IoT 4IT
IT PER IT4
4 IT
4
4
29
2018 IT
MSCI USA EPS 12 IT EPS
2018 2
EPS MSCI
MSCI Thomson Reuters Datastream I/B/E/S Bloomberg
2018 3 16
PER 2018 2
SIA WSTS
12 2018 1 2017 2018 WSTS 2017 11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
2003 =100
IT
MSCI Thomson Reuters Datastream I/B/E/S
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
2017 4,122 +21.6%
2018 4,373 +6.1%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
1998 =100
S&P500IT
S&P500
PER MSCI 12
202000
16.7 23.3 17.3
IT 21.3 41.6 18.8
22.8 32.1 14.5
118
19
2 19
3 20
4 IoT
2010 Industrie 4.0Advanced Manufacturing Partnership 2.0Catapult centers
2012 Intelligent factories clustersIntelligent factories clustersMade in China 2025
Manufacturing Innovation 3.0Industry of the Future
2016 4
2015
2011
2014
70
1995 1 =100
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1985 1993 2001 2009 2017
1995 =100
1.9
1.4 1.3 1.21.0
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
0.2
0.6
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5%
0.7%
12.2% 2016 13.8% 2026
2016 2026
1
2017 12
12
65
OECD 2017
5 2050
NBER
2018 2 1
”Employment Projection 2016-2026” 2017 10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
%
2015
75
56
75
59
OECD15-64 %
2005 2016
3.6 3.6 3.24.0
6.1
2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65
2016 %
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023
IT
71
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
2004 =100
100
257
+127
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
2004 =0
+127
+41
+86
-4-202468
101214
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
%
10
2468
101214161820
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
%
2017 1-3
2016 4-6
2016 7-9
2011 1-3
2011 7-9
2010 1-3
2007 7-9
20054-6
2006 7-9
60708090
100110120130140150160170180
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
2005 1-3 =100
2007 8
2012 3
20095
20064
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
2005 1-3 =100
20107-9
20084-6
20087-9
20087-9
20117-9
200910-12
S&P Green Street Advisors REIS Bloomberg Thomson Reuters Datastream
S&P REIT 2018 2 S&P REIT 2018 2
REIT 2018 3 16 2017 7-9
S&P / 20 2018 2 2017 12
2017 7-9
72
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
2004 =100
2012 9
2008 3
GDP
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
2003 =100
REIT
TOPIX
146
2007 5
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
2004 =100
2013 12
2008 8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
%
2007 11
2012 6
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
0123456789
10
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
NAV
%
900 J%
NAV 1
REIT TOPIX
NAV
2018 2 2018 1 NAV = 2018 2 IPO 2018 2 2007
2017 9 GDP 2017 10-12 6 2007
2018 2 2017 10-12 2007
Bloomberg
73
2018 17 18 8 17 18 20 G204 24 EU 26 27 20-22 IMF
EU 2226 ECB 25-28 ASEAN
275 1 2 FOMC 14 EU 25 ? 12
14 EU 2531 ECB 27
( 1 )6 12 13 FOMC 14 ECB 14 15 8 9 G7
26 EU 20 14 FIFA ( )EU 6 ( 7 15 )
28 29 EU 17( )
22 OPEC7 20 (18.6 €) 30 31 1
26 ECB 11 12 NATO31 -8 1 FOMC 21 G20
228 3 24
9 9 18 19 325 26 FOMC 13 ECB 30 18-30 73
10 18 19 EU 30 31 725 ECB ( 1 )
EU 12-14 IMF1 28
( )11 6 11-15 ASEAN
7 8 FOMC 11-1512-18 APEC31 -12 1 G20
OPEC12 18 19 FOMC 13 ECB 19 20
13 14 EU2019 3 3 29 EU 4 2 ( )
5 5 1 ( ) 35 ECB 7 (2013 )10 ECB 4
10 46 G20810 11
ECBBREXIT
2019
74
KO
KU
SAI A
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ent Co., Ltd. 74
2018 3 29
TOPIX TOPIX100 TOPIX Small REIT
FTSE International Limited(“FTSE”)©FTSE FTSE®” FTSE International Limited FTSE FTSE FTSE
FTSE FTSE FTSEFTSE FTSE
MSCI ACWI MSCI WORLD MSCI KOKUSAI MSCI EM MSCI JAPAN MSCI USA
MSCI Inc. S&P REIT S&P S&P DJI
S&P DJI S&P REIT J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Broad
J.P.J.P.
Copyright 2018 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Citigroup Index LLC The BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index The BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index
BofA BofA
Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM Bloomberg®
Bloomberg Finance L.P.Bloomberg Commodity
IndexSM UBS UBS Securities LLCUBS
UBS UBSUBS
Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM
Alerian MLP Index Alerian MLP Total Return Index Alerian Alerian
Markit Economics Limited Markit Economics Limited
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