guðrún gísladóttir and guðrún pétursdóttir nordress 26.nov. 2014

NORDRESSNordic Center of Excellence

on Resilience and Societal Security

Guðrún Gísladóttir and Guðrún Pétursdóttir University of Iceland

Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences /Institute for Sustainability [email protected], [email protected]

New trends in societal security research in the Nordic countries. 26 - 27 November 2014

NORDRESS

A new NCoE under the

Nordic Societal Security Programme

http://www.nordforsk.org/en/news/two-new-nordic-centres-of-excellence-in-societal-security

NORDIC COOPERATION ON CIVIL SECURITY:

NORDRESS will focus on

• Societal security and resilience under the impact of natural hazards i.e. extreme weather, floods, landslides, avalanches, volcanic eruptions, forest fires, etc. as opposed to intentional (terrorism, war etc.) and manmade hazards (technological, industrial etc.)

• These are natural hazards impacting all the Nordic countries from local to trans-boundary levels.

• The study will be interdisciplinary, adopting methods and viewpoints of natural, social and health sciences.


16 Nordicpartners

Emphasis onadded Nordic value

by ensuring transnational

participation in all WPs

Participants Country

University of Iceland Iceland

Icelandic Meteorological Office Iceland

Iceland Civil Protection and Emergency Management Iceland

Icelandic Coastguard Iceland

SAReye – Software for Search and Rescue Iceland

Center for Crisis Psychology, Bergen Norway

National Center for Psychotraumatology, University of Southern

Denmark

Denmark

Norwegian University of Science and Technology Norway

Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Denmark

Norwegian Geotechnical Institute Norway

Swedish Geotechnical Institute Sweden

Copenhagen Center for Disaster research/ Copenhagen Business School Denmark

Finnish Meteorological Institute Finland

University of Eastern Finland Finland

Oslo and Akershus Univ. Coll. of Appl. Sciences (NOVA) Norway

Malmö University Sweden

Aalborg University Denmark

Increasing impacts of disasters

• Natural disasters more than quadrupled since 1985

• 440 million people affected by natural hazards in 2011.

• density of populations and constructed facilities,

• human activity in hazardous zones,

• extreme weather events,

• effects of one event leading to others,

• climate change may lead to increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather,

• poor land use management and policy/decision making,

• poorly understood effects of natural hazards on mental and physical health.


ResilienceAt all stages of the cycle of emergency management:

prevention, preparedness, response and recovery.

Source: Barnier M., 2006. http://ec.europa.eu/archives/commission_2004-2009/president/pdf/rapport_barnier_en.pdf:

Resilience at different societal levels

Resilience derives from the intricate interplay between individuals, communities, institutions and infrastructures


Individual resilience

• Growing awareness of the importance of assessing long-term effects of trauma on survivor’s health.

• In particular Post traumatic stress disorder


WP3.1 long-term health effects of disasters

• The problem: Studies on the long-term health effects of disasters are rare and results inconclusive.

• Important to investigate specific health effects of natural disasters on survivors to identify risk factors for long-term suffering as well as protective factors.

• The study: WP3.1 will investigate long-term physical and psychological health following natural disasters,

• emphasizing predictors of recovery.

WP 3.2 Children in natural disasters –health and risk communication

• The problem: Little known about health effects of natural disasters on children, or how they react to risk communication.

• The study: WP3.2 will investigate:

• Specific health effects of natural disasters on children

• identify and optimize ways of communicating with children about natural disasters and

• Investigate potential demographic differences in risk perceptions, reactions and understanding.


WP3.3 Psychosocial support and intervention

• The problem: Most people recover quickly from post-disaster mental health problems. However, to serve the long-term suffering minority there is a need for effective and accessible interventions, which function well for large populations.

• The study: WP3.3 will • compile a historical overview of psychosocial support

following natural disasters in the Nordic countries, • develop ways of providing psychosocial support, • develop disaster focused intervention programs


Communities play a vital role during and after a disastrous event.

The aim is to increase community resilience by understanding risk perception, hazard communication, and community coping as well as strengthening public participation in hazard monitoring and early warning.


Community resilience

WP 4.1 Unpacking and measuring community resilience

The problem: Need to explore the concept of community resilience in relation to natural hazards in a Nordic context and identify relevant indicators.

The study: How is resilience composed?Which factors contribute to community resilience? How can aspects of community resilience be measured? How can community resilience be strengthened?


WP 4.2 Risk perception

• The problem: Understanding, awareness and effective communication about natural hazards and risks are vital for appropriate preparedness both among the general public and policymakers.

• The source of information and method of delivery are of key importance.


WP 4.2 Risk perception

The study: A comparative Nordic study of how risk perception to natural hazards is affected by demographic, technical and societal factors.

• How do policymakers and emergency managers utilize current knowledge and how is it best communicated?


Task 4.3 Participatory early warning and monitoring systems

• The problem: Early warning and monitoring systems are sparse in many hazardous areas, making it difficult to issue timely public warnings or follow the process of hazardous events.

• The public can provide in-situ photographs of water levels, snow banks, forest fires, or other phenomena.

• Critical infrastructure stakeholders can also upload local time series of e.g. water levels.


Task 4.3 Participatory early warning and monitoring systems

• The study: The study will investigate novel ways of expanding various monitoring techniques with network-based public participation.

• The goal is to incorporate public observations into existing monitoring networks and real time modelling and forecasting systems.

WP5 Infrastructure resilience

• Essential infrastructure vulnerable to natural hazards includes transport.

• Reduce effects of extreme weather, landslides and avalanches on roads/railways

• Reduce the vulnerability of air traffic to volcanic eruptions.

− WP 5.1 Slope failures and transport infrastructure

− WP 5.2 Snow avalanches on transport infrastructure

− WP 5.3 Flooding and coastal erosion

− WP 5.4 Arctic offshore challenges

− WP 5.5 Air traffic to volcanic eruptions

Infrastructure resilience


WP5.1 Mitigation of risk posed by slope failures on transport infrastructure

• The problem: Slope failures impact roads and railways in Nordic countries.

• The frequency and intensity of these events may increase with climate change.

• The study: Analysis of factors contributing to transport infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in the Nordic countries.

• Risk analyses for selected engineered slopes and embankments to identify main sources of vulnerability.


WP 5.2 Mitigation of risk posed by snow avalanches on transport infrastructure

• The problem: Snow avalanches threaten lives and societal infrastructure.

• Mitigation includes physical and non-physical measures.

• Physical measures are very costly and inflexible while prediction models need to be improved to increase their reliability.

WP 5.2 Mitigation of risk posed by snow

avalanches on transport infrastructure

• The study: Model to estimate 24 hr probability of snow avalanche hitting a road.

• Map existing mitigation measures to reduce risk.

• Detailed cost effectiveness analysis of physical protection measures versus use of monitoring and warning in selected places.

WP5.3 Risk assessment and prevention for flooding and coastal erosion in extreme

weather

• The problem: Lacking regional compilation of extreme weather effects. Flooding and risk assessment only performed locally in many places.

• Prevention measures decided locally without structured follow-up and evaluation.

• Climate change impacts likely to have different effects on various hazard risks in different Nordic regions. The uncertainty of predictions has to be communicated to stakeholders and the public.


WP5.3 Risk assessment and prevention for flooding

• The study: Guidelines for risk assessment and preventive measures developed, including land use and coastal planning.

• Statistics compiled on consequences of flooding and storm events in vulnerable areas, including uncertainty analysis in relation to model based predictions.

WP 5.4 Arctic offshore challenges

• The problem: Increased tourism, shipping and offshore oil exploration in the Arctic create new dangers.

• Prepare prevention, response and recovery from disasters in Arctic waters.

WP 5.4 Arctic offshore challenges

• The study:

• Mapping current hazards in Arctic waters.

• Analyse planning, execution and evaluation of SAREX in the Arctic.

• Develop a concept for computer-assisted cross-boundary table-top SAREX in the Arctic for future exercises.

• International rescue hub in Iceland

WP 5.5 Vulnerability of air traffic to volcanic eruptions

• NORDRESS will form a joint collaboration platform between on-going FP7 projects FutureVolc and Enhance in order to improve aviation preparedness and response to volcanic eruptions.

Institutional resilience

• The overarching question of WP6 is: Can the societal resilience of the Nordic countries be improved through changes in legal and regulatory frameworks and enhanced institutional cooperation?


WP 6.1. Review and enhance institutional framework for natural hazard management

• The Problem: Lacking overview of how natural hazards are managed in the Nordic countries.

• Resilience towards natural hazards cannot be safeguarded with centralized top-down approaches.

• Proper natural hazard management needs to be activated at all stages of the society.


Institutional framework

• The Study: A review of the current management regimes, for handling natural hazards in Nordic countries.

• Identification of options for improvement:

• how is natural hazard risk assessment incorporated into land use planning in the Nordic countries?

• how are public or private insurance compensation regimes designed?

• how can these measures be coordinated and improved?


WP 6.2 The Nordic Welfare system

• The problem: Poorly defined role of the Nordic welfare systems in natural disasters.

• Roles of social services are not fully outlined.

• Need for long-term response plans, typically governed by municipalities and social services in cooperation with health care services.


WP 6.2 The Nordic Welfare system

The study will focus on the following questions:

• Are social services included in emergency plans in the Nordic countries?

• What roles do and could social services play?

• Is there need for a better integration of the welfare and civil protection systems?

Training and mobility

Strong emphasis on training and mobility for all

Nordic Social Security Academy will provide

mobility grants and fund courses

The NSSA will be open to courses on societal security on a broad level, not only pertaining to natural hazards.

NORDRESS will improve

resilience

in the Nordic countries by providing science based recommendations to

relevant authorities

Thank you!

NORDRESS management and WP leaders: Adriaan Perrels, Arna Hauksdótttir, Ask Elklint, Atle Dyregrov, Christian Jaedicke, Farrokh

Nadim, Guðmundur Freyr Úlfarsson, Guðný Björk Eydal, Guðrún Gísladóttir, Guðrún Jóhannesdóttir, Guðrún Pétursdóttir, Haakon Lein, Hans Jörgen Henriksen, Harpa Dís Jónsdóttir,

Ingibjörg Lilja Ómarsdóttir, Morten Tanning Vendelö, Per Danielsson, Sigrún Karlsdóttir.