jun 2010 godina 3, broj 10 -...

JUN 2010godina 3, broj 10

BANKARBroj 10. jun 2010.

IZDAVAČUdruženje banaka i finansijskih institucija Crne Gore, Novaka Miloševa bb/3 PodgoricaTel: +382 20 232-028 www.ubcg.info

TIRAŽ: 600 primjerakaČasopis izlazi kvartalno.

Rješenjem Ministarstva kulture, sporta i medija časopis Bankar je upisan u Evidenciju medija - štampani mediji 17. marta 2008, pod rednim brojem 641.

REDAKCIJSKI ODBORglavni i odgovorni urednikMirko Radonjić

Milija Vlahović, Prof. dr Aleksandar Živković, dr Nikola Fabris, dr Saša Popović, dr Evangelos Markopoulos, mr Nebojša Đoković

urednikPeko Nikolićdizajn i prelomNikola Latkovićfinalna priprema tekstova i korekturaMarko Nikolićfotografijewww.photos.com i fotodokumentacija UBCG,fotografija na korici: prof.dr Saša PopovićprevodTanja Luburić, Jelena Pralas, Vesna Radunović, Nada Stojović i Milena Ljumovićštampa Grafotisak, Grude, BIH

Prilozi - tekstovi se dostavljaju u elektronskom obliku na e-mail adrese: [email protected], [email protected], na disketi ili cd-u; maksimalna dužina teksta do 25.000 karaktera.- reklame po normativima UBCG na e-mail: [email protected]

BANKARČasopis Udruženja banakai finansijskih institucija Crne GoreBroj 10. jun 2010.

IMPRESUM

jun 2010 | :Bankar

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INTERVJU SA ARIANE OBOLENSKY, PREDSJEDNICOM IZVRŠNOG KOMITETA EBF

Treba da idenTifikujemo sTvarne probleme i donesemo odgovarajuća rješenja

:B Finansijska kriza je žestoko pogodila Evropu i njen finansijski i bankarski sektor koji još trpi njene posljedice. Šta je trenutno najveći problem u finansijskoj sferi i koje su to mjere koje će se u 2010.god. preduzeti na njenom eliminisanju?Vrijedno je napomenuti da je finansijska kriza počela u SAD uglavnom zbog nedostataka finansijske kontrole, nepotpunih propisa, i u određenoj mjeri, zbog ekonomskih politika koje su vođene sve do početka krize. Evropske banke su u različi-tom stepenu bile pogođene krizom s tim da su neke od njih

bile čak i ozbiljno pogođene krizom. U tom pravcu neospor-no je i poželjno da kriza koju smo iskusili vodi do potpune analize bankarskih i finansijskih propisa. Još treba da iden-tifikujemo stvarne probleme i donesemo odgovarajuća rje-šenja. Pored toga, neophodno je da se ta rješenja utvrde na međunarodnom nivou i da ih sve države članice primjenjuju.

Poslovanje tržišta predstavlja prioritet u u vrijeme krize. Bolja organizacija i povećana transparentnost su bitni za određena tržišta koja imaju sistemsku dimenziju.

Adekvatna dokapitalizacija predstavlja još jedan prioritet. U tom smislu jasno je svima da je povećani potrebni kapi-tal neophodan za određene aktivnosti. Međutim, veoma je bitno da se prilagode promišljeni i efikasni propisi tako da

Vrijedno je napomenuti da je finansijska kriza počela u SAD uglavnom zbog nedostataka finansijske kontrole, nepotpunih propisa, i u određenoj mjeri, zbog ekonomskih politika koje su vođene sve do početka krize. Neophodno je da se rješenja utvrde na međunarodnom nivou i da ih sve države članice primjenjuju. Bolja organizacija i povećana transparentnost su bitni. Adekvatna

dokapitalizacija predstavlja još jedan prioritet. Treba napomenuti da banke predstavljaju dvije trećine finansiranja ekonomije u Evropi u odnosu na jednu trećinu u SAD, što znači da reforme Bazela treba više da utiču na evropsku ekonomiju. Finansijska supervizija predstavlja takođe još jedan važan prioritet. Kriza javnog duga sa kojom se suočavamo nije rezultat finansijske krize. Ona je rezultat godina ekonomske politike koji su vodile države članice i nedostatka saradnje na evropskom nivou. Euro je ključan za evropsku ekonomiju. Euro zona mora, s obzirom na to, napredovati u smislu budžetske discipline. Vjerujemo da je model „univerzalnog bankarstva“ pomogao da se diversifikuju rizici i finansiraju izvori kao i negativne posljedice krize. Banke treba da posluju u otvorenoj tržišnoj ekonomiji, one treba da se na odgovarajući način kontrolišu, i ne treba da im se propisuje veličina u skladu sa različitim bankarskim modelima. Javna intervencija u slučaju krize treba da se povuče u najkraćem roku i to treba uraditi koordinisano i usklađeno sa tržištem. Potrebno nam je da utvrdimo odgovarajuće regulative koje će svi primjenjivati i koji se će na pravilan način kontrolisati

poslovanje tržišta predstavlja prioritet u vrijeme krize

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AN INTERVIEW WITH MS ARIANE OBOLENSKY, CHAIR OF THE EBF EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

We sTill need To idenTifY THe real problems and brinG appropriaTe soluTions

:B Financial crisis has severely affected Europe and its financial and banking sector that are still suffering its consequences. Currently, what is the largest problem in the financial area and what measures will be undertaken in 2010 to eliminate it?It is worth noting that the financial crisis originated in the US, mainly owing to failures in financial supervision, incomplete regulations and to a certain extent economic policies until then. European banks were affected to dif-ferent degrees and some were severely hit by the crisis. As such, it is unavoidable and desirable that the crisis

that we have experienced leads to a complete review of banking and financial regulations. We still need to iden-tify the real problems and bring appropriate solutions. Moreover, it is necessary that these solutions are estab-lished at the international level and applied by all con-cerned Member States.

The operation of markets, clearly at the heart of the crisis, is a priority. Better organisation and heightened transparency are essential for certain markets with a systemic dimension.

Adequate capitalisation is another priority. On this point, it is clear for everybody that heightened capital require-ments is necessary for certain activities. However, it is fun-damental to best calibrate prudential regulations so as not

It is worth noting that the financial crisis originated in the US, mainly owing to failures in financial supervision, incomplete regulations and to a certain extent economic policies until then. It is necessary that these solutions are established at the international level and applied by all concerned Member States. Better organisation and heightened transparency are essential. Adequate capitalisation is another priority. Banks represent two-thirds of financing of the economy in Europe compared to one-third in the US, which means that the Basel reforms should impact the European economy. Financial supervision is also another important priority. The public debt crisis that we are experiencing is not a result of the financial crisis. It is the result of years of economic policies led by Member States and lack of coordination at European level. The euro is crucial to the European economy. Euro area must make progress in terms of budgetary discipline. We believe that the “universal banking” model has helped diversify the risks and funding sources, and therefore the negative consequences of the crisis. banks should operate in an open market economy, being properly supervised, without size prescription, according to diverse banking models. The crisis-induced public intervention needs to be withdrawn as quickly as possible, in a coordinated and market-sensitive way. What we need is to establish appropriate regulations to be applied by all and correctly supervised

The operation of markets, Clearly at the Heart of the Crisis, is a Priority

jun 2010 | :Bankar

4ne opterećuju finansiranje ekonomije. U tom pogledu tre-ba napomenuti da banke predstavljaju dvije trećine finansi-ranja ekonomije u Evropi u odnosu na jednu trećinu u SAD, što znači da reforme Bazela treba više da utiču na evropsku ekonomiju, kao što je to pokazano u Izvještaju Instituta za međunarodne finansije koji je objavljen 10. juna ove godine.

Finansijska supervizija predstavlja takođe još jedan va-žan prioritet. Kriza je pokazala da ključna potreba za na-dzorom na nacionalnom nivou ostaje i dalje jedna od naj-većih prepreka integracije evropskog bankarskog sistema. EBF podržava reforme o evropskoj finansijskoj supervizi-ji u skladu sa izvještajem Larosière-a, i nada se da će se one završiti u najkraćem mogućem roku.

neopHodno je usposTaviTi realno upravljanje evropskom ekonomijom

:B Grčka je u fokusu pažnje čitave Evropske unije. Kakve će po Vama biti posljedice tog problema po ostatak EU i šta uraditi da se sličan slučaj ne ponovi?Suprotno objašnjenju koji neki stručnjaci daju, kriza javnog duga sa kojom se suočavamo nije rezultat finansijske krize. Ona je rezultat godina ekonomske politike koji su vodile države članice i nedostatka saradnje na evropskom nivou. Prema tome, neophodno je uspostaviti realno upravljanje evropskom ekonomijom koje će omogućiti bolje upravljanje između država članica, istinsku koheziju nacionalnih politika i veći nadzor između srodnih grupa.

ne Treba da zaboravimo rasT

:B Kako komentarišete odnos eura i dolara u posljednjim mjesecima i koja su vaša predviđanja u vezi sa snagom zajedničke valute evropske monetarne unije u narednom periodu?Euro je ključan za evropsku ekonomiju. Smatram da ova valu-ta ne zaslužuje tretman koji dobija ako se uzmu u obzir osno-ve euro zone u odnosu na one u drugim monetarnim regija-ma. Kao što sam pomenula ranije, euro zona mora, s obzirom na to, napredovati u smislu budžetske discipline. I na kraju, ne treba da zaboravimo rast. U tom smislu, Evropska unija mora sačuvati konkurentnost svojih kompanija, naročito ba-naka koje igraju veoma bitnu ulogu u finansiranju ekonomije.

jedinsTveno TržišTe finansijskih usluga

:B Koje su to novine u bankarskoj industriji u 21.vijeku i kako vidite bankarski sektor EU u narednoj deceniji?EBF je nedavno objavio svoje „Principe za uspješnu buduć-nost bankarskog sistema u Evropi“, u kojima se daju prepo-ruke predlagačima standarda i organima nadležnim za do-nošenje politika u cilju podržavanja odgovornih novih pro-pisa i regulativa. Vjerujemo da je model „univerzalnog ban-karstva“, koji dozvoljava bankama da posluju i u sektoru sta-novništva i u sektoru privrede, pomogao da se diversifikuju rizici i finansiraju izvori kao i negativne posljedice krize. To je model kojem smo svi privrženi. Takođe vjerujemo da u kontekstu novim mjera, kada se osmišljavaju nove politike, jedan sveobuhvatni cilj mora opstati: a to je evropsko jedin-stveno tržište finansijskih usluga. Naš sektor se mora posvetiti regulatornim i privrednim izazovima, mora pratiti društve-

na i makroekonomska kretanja i mora odgovoriti na različite vrste pritisaka sa kojima se susreće. U dokumentu, „Principi za uspješnu budućnost bankarskog sistema u Evropi“, nagla-šavamo neophodnost našeg sektora da posluje u skladu sa ključnim principima: banke treba da posluju u otvorenoj tr-žišnoj ekonomiji, one treba da se na odgovarajući način kon-trolišu, i ne treba da im se propisuje veličina u skladu sa razli-čitim bankarskim modelima. Banke moraju po prirodi ostati komercijalne, pa stoga javna intervencija u slučaju krize tre-ba da se povuče u najkraćem roku i to treba uraditi koordi-nisano i usklađeno sa tržištem. Banke treba da budu okre-nute ka klijentima, snažne, održive i prilagodljive, što znači da moraju pripremiti snažne strategije koje im omogućavaju prilagode tržišnim uslovima i promjenama koje se kontinui-rano razvijaju u tražnji za bankarskim uslugama.

problem nije u Tome da li nam je PoTrebno više regulaTive

:B Mnogi teoretičari se spore oko intervencionističke uloge države u ovoj krizi, mnogi pak smatraju da je libaralni koncept „kriv“ za slabosti koje su dovele do svjetske krize. Da li je ovo kraj jedne ere i početak novog koncepta tržišne ekonomije kakav do sada nije bio u praksi?Sa ideološkog stanovišta nije podesno da izvodimo određe-ne pouke iz krize. Finansijski i bankarski sektor su uvijek bili regulisani i problem nije u tome da li nam je potrebno više regulative ili nam regulative uopšte nijesu potrebne. Potrebno nam je da utvrdimo odgovarajuće regulative koje će svi primjenjivati i koji se će na pravilan način kontrolisati.

ebf obezbjeđuje razmjenu dobrih praksi i iskustava:B Kako biste našim čitaocima pojasnili ulogu i značaj EBF-a, pogotovo za pridružene članice kao što je Crna Gora?

Evropska bankarska federacija (EBF) je jedno od glavnih evropskih finansijskih udruženja i predstavlja učešće preko 5,000 malih, velikih, regionalnih, međunarodnih, komercijalnih i invsticionih banaka širom Evrope. 31 nacionalno udruženje su članice EBF-a i 13 udruženja su njegove pridružene članice. Raznolikost i opseg nje-govih članova dozvoljava EBF-u predstavljanje i zna-čajni legitimitet da brani interese bankarskog sektora i razmotri političke odluke na evropskom i međuna-rodnom nivou. EBF u velikoj mjeri obezbjeđuje raz-mjenu dobrih praksi i iskustva, razmjenu informaci-ja, dijaloga i uspostavlja zajedničke osnove.

INTERVJU SA ARIANE OBOLENSKY, PREDSJEDNICOM IZVRŠNOG KOMITETA EBF


to encumber financing of the economy. In this respect, note that banks represent two-thirds of financing of the economy in Europe compared to one-third in the US, which means that the Basel reforms should impact the European econo-my more, as demonstrated by an Institute of International Finance report released on June 10.

Financial supervision is also another important prio-rity. The crisis has shown the acute need of surveillance adapted to the dimension of pan-European groups. The fragmentation of supervision at the national level re-mains one of the biggest obstacles to the integration of European banking. As such, the EBF supports reforms in progress on European financial supervision, in line with the Larosière report, and hopes they will be complete as soon as possible.

iT is neCessarY To esTablish real euroPean eConomiC governanCe

:B Greece is in the focus of EU attention. In your opinion, how this will affect the rest of EU and what needs to be done to prevent similar cases from happening in the future?Conversely to the explanation of some, the public debt cri-sis that we are experiencing is not a result of the financial crisis. It is the result of years of economic policies led by Member States and lack of coordination at European le-vel. Accordingly, it is necessary to establish real European economic governance, which will enable better governance between Member States, genuine cohesion of national po-licies and more surveillance between peers.

We sHould noT forGeT GroWTH

:B Your comments regarding euro/dollar relationship in the last months, and what are your predictions with respect to mutual currency of European Monetary Union in the following period? The euro is crucial to the European economy. I feel that it does not deserve the treatment it has been getting, if you take into consideration the fundamentals of the euro area compared with those of other monetary regions. This being the case, as I previously mentioned, the euro area must make progress in terms of budgetary discipline. Last but not least, we should not forget growth. In this respect, the European Union must protect the competitiveness of its companies, especially banks which have a crucial role to play in financing the economy.

euroPean single markeT in finanCial serviCes

:B What are innovations that occurred in the banking sector in 21st century, and how do you see EU banking sector in the following ten years?The EBF has recently published its “Principles for a Successful Future of Banking in Europe”, where we make recommenda-tions to standard setters and decision-makers with a view to supporting responsible new rules and regulations. We belie-ve that the “universal banking” model, which allows banks to operate both in the retail and wholesale sectors, has helped diversify the risks and funding sources, and therefore the ne-gative consequences of the crisis. It is a model we are very at-tached to. We also believe that in the context of new measu-res, when devising new policies, one overall aim must rema-in: that of the European single market in financial services. Our sector has to address regulatory and commercial chal-lenges, it must follow societal and macro-economic trends, and all in all, it must meet the different types of pressures it is facing. In the “Principles for a Successful Future of Banking in Europe”, we highlight the necessity for our sector to be able to operate according to key principles: banks should opera-te in an open market economy, being properly supervised, without size prescription, according to diverse banking mo-dels. They must remain commercial in nature; therefore, the crisis-induced public intervention needs to be withdrawn as quickly as possible, in a coordinated and market-sensitive way. They should be customer-oriented, robust, sustainable and adaptable, which means they must develop robust stra-tegies to be able to adapt to continuously evolving market conditions and changes in the demand for banking services.

problem is noT WHeTHer We reQuire more reGulaTions

:B Many theoreticians have different opinions regarding intervention of the state in this crisis; however, many of them think that liberal concept is “to blame” for weaknesses that have brought to global crisis. Is this the end of an era and the beginning of new concept of market economy that has never been seen in practice before? It is inappropriate to position ourselves from an ideological standpoint to derive certain lessons from the crisis. Financial and banking sectors have always been regulated and the problem is not whether we require more regulations or no regulations at all. What we need is to establish appropria-te regulations to be applied by all and correctly supervised.

ebf Provides exchange of good Practices and experienc:B How would you explain to our readers the role and importance of EBF, particularly for members associates such as Montenegro?

The European Banking Federation (EBF) is one of the main European financial associations and represents the interest of over some 5,000 small, large, regional, international, retail and wholesale banks across Europe. 31 national associations are members and 13 are asso-ciates. The diversity and scope of its membership af-fords it representativeness and considerable legitimacy to defend banking interests and weigh in on the poli-tical decisions at the European and International le-vel. The EBF provides a great place to exchange good practices and experience, share information, debate, and establish common grounds.

AN INTERVIEW WITH MS ARIANE OBOLENSKY, CHAIR OF THE EBF EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

jun 2010 | :Bankar

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KLJUČNI ELEMENTI IZVJEŠTAJA EVROPSKE BANKARSKE FEDERACIJE (EBF)

i priroda mikrofinansijaNe postoji jedinstvena definicija mikrofinansija. Mikrofinansiranje u okviru bankarske industrije EU obič-no se odnosi na male kredite (“mikro kredit” ili “mikro za-jam”) i na male komercijalne klijente (“mikro subjekti”). Obično se povezuje sa ostalim finansijskim uslugama: sa-vjetodavnim ili onim koje uključuju finansiranje. Pod mik-ro kreditom u EU Evropska komisija podrazumijeva kredi-te ispod 25.000 eura za poslovne incijative, i primijetila je da je prosjek obično 10.000 eura u EU-15 i 3.800 u EU-12.

Nepostojanje dosljedne i jedinstvene definicije mikro-finansiranja u internom izvještavanju banaka otežava pri-kupljanje informacija o ovoj djelatnosti. Pouzdane činjeni-ce i cifre o količini mikrokredita i povezanih usluga, poseb-no u EU kao cjelini, su neuhvatljive. Međutim, neki podaci na nivou zemalja su dostupni i to je poslužilo za ilustraciju raznolikosti nacionalnih praksi u ovoj oblasti.

ii riZiCi i Povraćaji na mikrofinansiranje eu banaka * Podsticaji - Strateški pristup EU banaka mikrofinansira-nju je različit. Jedna od glavnih različitosti je obim do kojeg se djelatnost smatra rukovođenom ekonomskim i/ili druš-tvenim ciljevima. Veliki dio mikrofinansija koje potiču od EU banaka preduzeto je u kontekstu politika korporativne socijalne odgovornosti.

Širom EU banke učestvuju u, i kanališu finansiranje malih biznisa u ime javnih subjekata poput EIB. Ova djelatnost nudi brojne koristi banci: postizanje širih ciljeva politike javnih in-stitucija, kao i strogo komercijalnu dobit od ove djelatnosti.

Obim poslovanja u EU motivisanog “nekomercijalnim” faktorima veći je nego što na prvi pogled izgleda. Čak i u zemljama gdje je osnovni podsticaj za banke da nude mik-rokreditiranje finansijski, podrška države može pomoći da ova djelatnost postane komercijalno održiva. Kod ban-ke koja daje kredite, komercijalni i širi socijalno-ekonom-ski ciljevi će se vjerovatno preklapati, barem u nekoj mje-ri, jer uspješno mikrokreditiranje ima tendenciju ka krei-ranju novih poslovnih poduhvata i klijenata u budućnosti.

* Nerješiva dilema: odnos troškovi/prihodi - Mlada i mala preduzeća često se suočavaju sa posebnim problemima kada su im potrebni mali iznosi finansija od eksternih pro-vajdera kapitala za njihove investicione projekte. Nepovoljan odnos troškova i zarada može značiti da je mikrokredit ne-profitabilan za banke u “konvencijalnoj” djelatnosti kredi-tiranja. Finansijska i ekonomska kriza je učinila procjenu rizika riskantnijom. Potreba banaka da ponovo razmisle o svojim strategijama, restrukturiraju svoje bilanse stanja i poboljšaju profitabilnost smanjili su njihovu sklonost ka rizicima. Može se očekivati da će ovo uticati na dostupnost mikrokreditnih proizvoda.

Posebni elementi rizika mikrokredita u odnosu na tradi-cionalno kreditiranje malih preduzeća – naročito nepostojanje vremenskih serija podataka zajmoprimaoca i nesigurnos-ti u vezi sa osnivanjem – odgovorni su za činjenicu da je ta-kav mikrokredit često obezbijeđen kolateralom ili garancija-ma koje su obezbijedili javni ili neprofitni subjekti. Na samim bankama je krajnja odgovornost za procjenu rizika poslovan-ja i njegovog vjerovatnog uticaja na njihovu profitabilnost.

mikrofinansiranje u bankarskoj industriji eu: politika i praksaPrivatne banke su jedan od glavnih provajdera mikrofinansija u Evropskoj uniji (EU). One obezbjeđuju mikrofinansije i nezavisno za svoj račun i u partnerstvu sa drugim provajderima, poput javnih organa, a posebno Evropske investicione banke (EIB) i specijalizovanih mikrofinansijskih institucija (MFI). Fokus ovog rada su isključivo mikrofinansije koje banke u EU obezbjeđuju zajmopriomaocima u okviru granica EU. EFB ukazuje na izazove u razvoju tržišta mikrofinansiranja u EU, naročito u vrijeme recesije. Na osnovu onog što se uoči na komercijalnom tržištu mikrofinansija, EFB donosi zaključke o odgovarajućem okviru na nivou EU kojim će se objediniti različiti pristupu u mikrofinansiranju i omogućiti da javna i privatna ponuda koegzistiraju na zdrav način

Elena Letemendía & Alison Bell


KEY ELEMENTS OF THE EBF REPORT

i The naTure of miCrofinanCeThere is no single definition of microfinance. Microfinance within the EU banking industry normally refers to small lo-ans (“microcredit” or “micro-loans”) and to small commer-cial customers (“micro-entities”). It is commonly associa-ted with other financial services: advisory or involving fun-ding. The European Commission considers microcredit in the EU to be loans under €25,000 for business initiatives, and has observed that, typically, the average is €10,000 for the EU-15 and €3,800 for the EU-12.

The lack of a consistent and commonly used definition of microfinance for banks’ internal reporting impedes the col-lection of information about the activity. Reliable facts and figures for the volume of microcredit and related services, particularly for the EU as a whole, are elusive. Nonetheless some country-level data is available, and this serves to il-lustrate the diversity of national practices.

ii The risks and reTurns of eu bank miCrofinanCe * The incentives - Around the EU, banks’ strategic approach to microfinance is diverse. One of the main points of diffe-rence is the extent to which the business is seen to be driven by economic and/or social objectives. Much microfinance from EU banks is undertaken in the context of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) policies.

Around the EU, banks are participating in, and channelling small business finance on behalf of, public entities such as the EIB. This activity offers a range of benefits to the bank: the fulfilment of the broader policy goals of the public instituti-

ons as well as the strictly commercial gains from the activity.Within the EU, the volume of business motivated by

“non-commercial” factors is greater than it may appear. Even in countries where the main incentive for banks to of-fer micro-lending is economic, government support may be helping to make the activity commercially viable. For the lending bank, commercial and broad socio-economic ob-jectives are likely to overlap, to some extent at least, as suc-cessful micro-lending will tend to create new business ven-tures and clients for the future.

* The cost/earnings conundrum - Young and small en-terprises often face special problems when they need small amounts of finance from external capital providers for their investment projects. The adverse cost/earnings ratio may mean that a microcredit is unprofitable for banks in the “con-ventional” way of lending business. Recently, the financial and economic crisis has made the assessment of risk more hazardous. The need for banks to rethink their strategies, restructure balance sheets and improve profitability has re-duced their appetite for risk. It can be expected that this will have an impact on the availability of microcredit products.

The special risk elements of microcredit compared to tra-ditional small business lending - in particular the absence of a borrower track record and the uncertainties connec-ted to a start-up - are responsible for the fact that it is very often backed by collateral or guarantees provided by pub-lic or non-profit entities. Ultimately the banks themselves have the responsibility of evaluating the risk of doing the business, and its likely effect on their profitability.

microfinance Within the eu banking industry: Policy and PracticePrivate banks are among the main providers of microfinance within the European Union (EU). They supply microfinance both independently for their own account, and in partnership with other providers, such as public bodies, notably the European Investment Bank (EIB), and specialised Microfinance Institutions (MFIs). The focus of this paper is exclusively on the microfinance which EU banks are making available to borrowers within EU borders. The EBF points to the challenges in developing the market for microfinance in the EU, particularly at a time of recession. On the basis of observations on the commercial market for microfinance, it draws conclusions on the appropriate framework at EU level to accommodate the different approaches to microfinance, and to allow public and private supply to co-exist in a healthy way

Elena Letemendía & Alison Bell

jun 2010 | :Bankar

8

KLJUČNI ELEMENTI IZVJEŠTAJA EVROPSKE BANKARSKE FEDERACIJE (EBF)

iii uloGa javnoG sekTora Javna podrška generalno ima za cilj da pomogne neban-karskim djelatnostima da postanu bankarske, a ne da po-mognu neprofitabilnim preduzećima da ostanu solventna. Uprkos rizicima i neizvjesnostima povezanim sa ovom vrs-tom kreditiranja, izgleda da je jasno da će javni sektor naj-vjerovatnije biti najuticajniji, jedini provajder mikrofinan-sija unutar EU2.

ZakljuČCiJavnoj podršci potrebno je pažljivo određivanje cilje-va i praćenje - U teoriji, aktivnosti javnih i privatnih pro-vajdera trebaju biti međusobno dopunjujuće i podstaknu-te, uz javnu podršku koja cilja nebankarske zajmoprima-oce kako bi se osiguralo da su usluženi siromašniji djelo-vi stanovništva. U praksi se mora nastojati da se postigne ova teška ravnoteža. Javni programi moraće da utvrde ob-lasti koje nemaju prođu na tržištu kako bi se izbjeglo istis-kivanje komericijalnih zajmodavalaca ili narušavanje kon-kurencije. Istovremeno, nadležni organi željeće da osigu-raju da njihovo finansiranje podržava i pomaže u stvaran-ju preduzeća koja će biti uspješna u dugoročnijem preiodu.

Mikrofinansiranje u EU ima posebne karakteristike - Mikrofinansiranje koje se obezbjeđuje u industrijalizovanom svijetu razlikuje se od originalnog koncepta mikrofinansi-ranja koje se primjenjuje u zemljama u razvoju. U EU treba da postoji što je jasnije moguće razdvajanje malih kredita koja banke mogu obezbijediti bankarskim zajmoprimaoci-ma i onih slučajeva koje treba da pokrivaju MFI ili razvoj-ne banke. Uzimajući u obzir rečeno, banke na nekim tržiš-tima obezbjeđuju ili podržavaju usluge mikrofinansiranja i nebankarskom sektoru. U takvim slučajevima njihove ak-tivnosti motivicane su njihovim sopstvenim ciljevima kor-porativne socijalne odgovornosti ili finansijskog uključiva- nja i/ili koristima od saradnje sa javnim organima kroz jav-no-privatna partnerstva. Bez obzira da li je u pitanju ban-karsko ili nebankarsko poslovanje, svako ima svoje karak-teristične ciljeve, rizične profile i prinos koji treba da budu što je transparentni što je više moguće.

Ne postoji potreba za namjenskim regulatornim okvi-rom - Uz mikrofinansiranje, nivo uređenja provajdera ban-karskih usluga je već izuzetno usavršen i ugrađen u među-narodni okvir pravila u pogledu likvidnosti, kapitala i upra-vljanja rizicima. Konkurentno poslovno okruženje u skla-du sa principom “ista djelatnost, isti rizici, ista pravila” je neophodno kako bi se izbjegli poremećaji u konkurenciji i preveliko preuzimanje rizika.

Saradnja i dijalog između provajdera su neophodni - Potrebno je bolje razumijevanje prirode djelatnosti mikro-finansiranja u 27 država članica i bolje razumijevanje uloge koju imaju različiti akteri na nacionalnim tržištima. Studija EFB o raznovrsnim pristupima među njenim članicama, koji su ovdje navedeni, pokazuje da privatni i ostali provajderi zajednički rade u mnogim slučajevima. Ova saradnja i raz-mjena iskustava će biti korisna svim stranama, uključujući i zajmodavaoce i zajmoprimace. Predložena Evropska mikro-kreditna olakšica za zapošljavanje i društveno uključivanje nudi priliku svim akterima u djelatnosti mikrokreditiranja da uključe svoje vještine i iskustvo u kreiranju i sprovođenju ciljeva javne politike što je efikasnije i efektivnije moguće.


KEY ELEMENTS OF THE EBF REPORT

iii The role of The PubliC seCTor Public support is generally aimed at helping non-bankable businesses to become bankable, not at helping unprofitable enterprises to remain afloat. Despite the risks and uncertain-ties associated with this type of lending, it seems clear that the public sector is likely to be the most influential single provider of microfinance within the EU2.

ConClusionsPublic support needs careful targeting and moni-toring - In theory, the activities of public and private providers should be complementary and mutually en-hancing, with public support targeted at non-bankable borrowers to ensure that needier sections of the popu-lation are served. In practice, a difficult balance must be struck. Public schemes will need to identify areas of market failure so as to avoid squeezing out commercial lenders or damaging competition. At the same time, the authorities will wish to ensure that their financing sup-ports, and helps to create, enterprises that will be suc-cessful in the longer run.

Microfinance within the EU has special characteris-tics - The microfinance being provided in the industriali-sed world differs from the original concept of microfinan-ce as applied in the developing world. Within the EU, the-re should be as clear as possible a separation between small loans that can be supplied by a bank to bankable borrowers, and those cases that should be handled by a MFI or deve-lopment bank. This said, in some markets banks are provi-ding, or supporting, microfinance services to the non-ban-kable sector as well. In such cases, their activities are mo-tivated by their own CSR or financial inclusion objectives, and/or by the benefit of collaborating with public bodies through public-private partnerships. Be it a bankable or non-bankable kind of business, each type has its distinct objectives, risk profiles, and rewards, which should be as transparent as possible.

There is no need for a dedicated regulatory framework - With microfinance, the level of regulation of bank provi-ders is already highly sophisticated, and built into an inter-national framework of rules for liquidity, capital and risk management. A level playing field for lenders, according to the „same business, same risks, same rules“ principle, is necessary in order to avoid distortions of competition and excessive risk-taking.

Cooperation and dialogue between providers is es-sential - A greater understanding is needed of the natu-re of the microfinance activity in the 27 Member States, and of the role played by the different actors in the natio-nal markets. The EBF’s study of the variety of approaches among its members, reported here, shows that private and other providers are working together in many instances. This collaboration, and the sharing of experience, is like-ly to be advantageous to all sides, lenders and borrowers included. The proposed European Microfinance Facility for Employment and Social Inclusion offers an opportu-nity for all actors in the microfinance business to bring their different skills and experience to bear, and to im-plement public policy objectives, as efficiently and effec-tively as possible.

jun 2010 | :Bankar

10

BANKE I KLIJENTI

Istraživanje sprovedeno prije petnaest godina pokazalo je da ukoliko je klijent bio zadovoljan kompanijom ili proi-

zvodom, obično bi o tome obavijestio troje do petoro ljudi. Međutim, o lošem iskustvu obavijestio bi osmoro do deseto-ro ljudi. U današnje vrijeme, uz rasprostranjeno korišćenje blogova, Facebook-a i YouTube-a, klijenti koji su imali loša iskustva mogu to reći (i to prilično kreativno, ako mogu da dodam) bukvalno milionima ljudi prije nego vaša institu-cija može izvršiti bilo kakvu kontrolu štete. Sa finansijskim institucijama koje nude veoma slične proizvode i usluge na tržištu, očigledno je da će banke koje nude vrhunske usluge klijentima kojima će ovi biti naklonjeni povećati svoje tržiš-no učešće. Ovo je slično anketi sprovedenoj među mladi-ma u Crnoj Gori i koja je pokazala da je loša usluga razlog broj jedan zašto biraju da ne trguju u nekoj radnji ili odla-ze u neki restoran, čak iako to znači prekidanje porodične tradicije ili nekih pogodnosti iz prošlosti.

Neki menadžeri koji su usmjereni ka poslovanju su me pi-tali: „U čemu je svrha obezbjeđivanja bolje usluge klijentima? To će nas samo koštati više novca.“ Postoje brojne zablude u ovakvom pitanju. Prva je ta što bolja usluga klijentima di-rektno doprinosi profitabilnosti. Ona obezbjeđuje osnovu za duži odnos sa klijentima i lojalnost klijenata. Ona takođe po-činje da stvara ličnu i emotivnu vezu sa vašom institucijom, a koja se ne može razviti ni na koji drugi način. Obezbjeđivanje bolje usluge klijentima ne predstavlja nikakv dodatni trošak instituciji ukoliko ona već ulaže u pružanje usluga klijenti-ma. Molim vas sagledajte ovaj primjer sa finansijske strane u smislu uzroka i posljedica. Rad Dr Rodžera Besta daje uvid u uticaj bolje usluge klijentima na profit.

Kompanije prvo moraju da izmjere svoj nivo pružanja usluga klijentima kako bi saznali šta je to što moraju una-prijediti. Ako bi se ovo zadovoljstvo klijenata mjerilo na skali od jedan do šest i prosjek je 4,1, onda je prosječni nivo zadovoljstva klijenata 68%. Drugi metrički sistem kojoj je instituciji potreban je Stopa zadržavanja klijenta ili Životni vijek klijenta. Ako znate da vaši klijenti obično ostaju kod vas oko pet godina, onda imate Stopu zadržavanja klijenta (CR) od 80% (Životni vijek klijenta = 1/[1-CR], 5 = 1/[1-.8]).

Hajde da sad analiziramo zadovoljstvo klijenta za datu finansijsku instituciju (vidjeti Sliku 1). Anketa je pokaza-la da je 67% klijenata izjavilo da su zadovoljni sa očekiva-nom uslugom. Shodno tome, 33% je nezadovoljno i oni se dijele u dvije kategorije: na one koji su se žalili (5%) i one koji nijesu (95%). Kod onih koji su se žalili instituci-ja je dobro odradila posao rješavanja njihovih problema i zadržala 90% njih. Međutim, od onih koji se nijesu žali-li (njih 95%) samo je 20% zadržano i oni su ostali sa kom-panijom nevoljno. (Većina klijenata se neće žaliti već će se samo tiho iskrasti i otići kod konkurencije i vi nikada ne-ćete saznati zašto. Ukoliko želite da riješite probleme sa kli-jentima, morate obezbijediti višestruke mehanizme za evi-dentiranje pritužbi klijenata kako bi se mogle čuti i rješa-vati. Mnoge institucije ovo rade tako što njihovi direktori i izvršni funkcioneri rade jednu smjenu mjesečno gdje di-rektno uslužuju klijente.)

Iz ovoga možete vidjeti da na 67% institucija svake godi-ne gubi 25,25% svoje baze klijenata jer je stopa zadržavan-ja klijenata 74,76%, tako da klijenti ostaju sa institucijom u prosjeku manje od četiri godine.

„bolje pružanje usluga klijentima jednako je veći profit“

U nedavno sprovedenoj anketi mjerenja lošeg pružanja usluga klijentima, od deset kompanija za koje su korisnici rekli da pružaju najgoru uslugu klijentima, pet su bile banke. Pritužbe su išle od računovodstvenih grešaka do naplaćivanja nadoknada koje nikada nijesu objašnjene. Međutim, većina ovih pritužbi bila je na pružanje usluga od strane namrgođenog, navodno obučenog osoblja za pružanje usluga klijentima. Većina ispitanika navela je i dvije stvari: prvo, ukoliko je menadžer banke izdvojio vrijeme da ih sasluša i ispravi problem, oni su nastavili da budu klijenti te banke; drugo, ukoliko nijesu smatrali da menadžer želi da im pomogne, onda su račune otvarali kod druge banke u roku od 60 dana. Pored toga, i svima koje poznaju ispričali su kako su bili tretirani.

Prof. dr. Paul Dishman, profesor marketinga na Univerzitetu Donja Gorica, profesor i na Univerzitetu Utah Valley.


BANKS AND CUSTOMERS

Research from fifteen years ago showed that if a customer was pleased with a company or product that they typical-

ly told three to five friends about it. However, if they had bad experience they told eight to eleven. Now, with the extensive use of blogs, Facebook, and YouTube, customers that have had bad experiences can tell (and quite creatively, I might add) li-terally millions of people about it before your institution can perform any sort of damage control. With financial institu-tions offering very similar products and services to the mar-ketplace, it is obvious the banks that offer customer superior customer service are the ones customer will migrate toward and will increase market share. This parallels the findings in a survey among young men and women in Montenegro, whe-re bad customer service was the number one reason that they choose not shop or do business with store or restaurant, even if it meant breaking family tradition or forgoing convenience.

I have been asked by many operation-oriented managers, “What is the point of providing better customer service? That will only cost us more money.” There are many falla-cies in such a question. The first is that improved customer service directly contributes to profitability. It provides the basis for longer customer relationships. It creates customer loyalty. It also begins to create personal and emotional ties with your institution that cannot be developed any other way. Providing great customer service doesn’t cost an institution any more, if it is already investing in customer service. Please allow this example to financially demonstrate this cause and effect. The work of Roger Best, Ph.D. helps provide an in-sight into the profit impact of improved customer service.

Companies must first measure their level of customer

service so that they know from what point they must im-prove. If this satisfaction was measured on a six-point sca-le and the response average was 4.1, this would convert to a 68% average customer satisfaction level. The second met-ric that institutions need is the Customer Retention Rate or the Customer Life. If you know that your customers tend to stay with you for about five years, then you have a Customer Retention Rate (CR) of 80% (Customer Life = 1/[1-CR], 5 = 1/[1-.8]).

Let’s analyze Customer Satisfaction for a given financial institution (see Chart 1). From the survey, it was shown that 67% of the customers stated they were satisfied with their ex-pectation of service. Thus, 33% were dissatisfied. Those dissa-tisfied customers fell into two categories, those that complai-ned (5%) and those that did not (95%). Of those that compla-ined, the institution did a good job of solving their problems and retained 90% of those complaining customers. However, of those that did not complain (95%), only 20% of those custo-mers were retained and they stayed with the company very reluctantly. (Most customers will not complain, they will just silently sneak away to competitors and you will never know why. If you want to solve customer problems you must pro-vide multiple mechanisms for you to capture customer com-plaints so that they can be heard and dealt with. Many insti-tutions do this by having their directors and executives work a shift a month where they are directly serving customers.)

You can see from this that, at 67%, the institution is lo-sing 25.25% of their client base every year as customer re-tention is 74,76%, thus customers are only staying with the institution on an average of less than four years.

“improved Customer service equals improved Profits”In a recent survey of measuring bad customer service, of the ten companies that consumers said provided the worst customer service, five of them were banks. Complaints ranged from accounting errors to being hit with fees that were never explained. However, most of the complaints were about surly service from allegedly trained customer service personnel. Most of the respondents also stated two things. One, if the manager took time to listen and correct the problem, they stayed as a customer of the bank. The second was that if they did not believe a manager cared about helping them, they moved their account to another bank within 60 days. In addition, they also told everyone they knew about how they had been treated.

Prof. dr. Paul Dishman, Ph.d., Professor of Marketing at the University of Donja Gorica, also a professor at Utah Valley University

jun 2010 | :Bankar

12

BANKE I KLIJENTI

Kada pogledamo neke od detalja ovih kategorija klije-nata vidimo da su prihod, marža i troškovi marketinga u svakoj kategoriji potpuno različiti. Prihodi nijesu maksi-mizirani dok se ne postigne razvijeno zadovoljstvo klije-nata. Pored toga, prihod od novog klijenta ili postojećeg klijenta je niži nego od dugoročnog zadovoljnog klijenta.

Iz Tabele 1 može se vidjeti da finansijski uticaj od 67% stope zadovoljstva klijenta na neto doprinos i prihod od marketinga. Uz uticaj svih kategorija klijenata, ukupan neto doprinos i prihod od marketinga je 16 miliona eura. Ako su operativni troškovi institucije 10 miliona eura, ovo bi obezbijedilo 6 miliona eura prihoda i 7,56% povraća-ja na prihode.

Postoje dvije stvari koje su uspješne kompanije nau-čile i to rade dobro. Prva je obezbijediti program gdje menadžeri i izvršni funkcioneri aktivno slušaju svoje klijente i probleme koji nastanu. Druga je davanje ovlašće- nja zaposlenima da rješavaju probleme klijenata. Ako bi data institucija povećala broj zadovoljnih klijenata sa 67%

na samo 77% , efekat prihoda bi bio nevjerovatan (vidjeti Tabelu 2). Ne samo da klijenti (u prosjeku) ostaju sa nama duže (3,9 naspram 5,6 godina), već se i doprinos priho-da od marketinga povećava sa 16 miliona eura na 22 mi-liona eura, obezbjeđujući pri tom povraćaj na prihod od 15,68% ili rast od 40% na to, pri nivou zadovoljstva kli-jenata od 67%.

Iz ove analize treba da bude jasno da vaša institucija ne može da priušti da klijenti pričaju svima koje poznaju o lošem iskustvu sa vama. Bolje bi bilo da vaša kompanija donese odluku o konkuretnoj i održivoj profitabilnosti in-vestirajući i održavajući vrhunski program pružanja usluga klijentima. Ništa drugo u poslovanju neće tako uticati na profitablnost kao unaprijeđeno pružanje usluga klijentima.

ZADRŽANZadovoljan

ZADRŽANNezadovoljan

IZGUBLJEN NOV UKUPNO

# 335,000 38,775 126,225 126,225 500,000

Prihod po 200€ 150€ 100€ 50€

Pihod od 67,000,00€ 5,816,25€ 12,622,50€ 6,311,25€ 91,750,00€

Varijabilni troškovi po 75€ 80€ 50€ 35€

Marža po 125€ 70€ 50€ 15€

Ukupan 41,875,00€ 2,714,25€ 6,311,25€ 6,311,25€ 52,793,87€

Troškovi market po 50€ 60€ 40€ 10€

Ukupni troškovi 16,750,00 2,326,50€ 5,049,00€ 12,622,50€

Neto doprinos 25,125,00€ 387,750€ 1,262,25€ (10,729,125) 16,045,87€

Umanjeno za: operativne 10,000,00€

Prihod prije kamate 6,045 €

Povraćaj na 7,56%

ZADRŽANZadovoljan

ZADRŽANNezadovoljan

IZGUBLJEN NOV UKUPNO

# 385,000 38,775 126,225 126,225 500,000

Prihod po 200€ 150€ 100€ 50€

Pihod od 77,000,00€ 4,053,75€ 7,797,50€ 4,398,75€ 94,250,00€

Varijabilni troškovi po 75€ 80€ 50€ 35€

Marža po 125€ 70€ 50€ 15€

Ukupan 48,125,00€ 1,891,75€ 4,398,75€ 1,319,62€ 55,735,12€

Troškovi market po 50€ 60€ 40€ 10€

Ukupni troškovi 19,250,00 1,621,50€ 3,519,00€ 8,797,50€

Neto doprinos 28,875,00€ 270,250€ 879,750€ (7,477,875) 22,547,12€

Umanjeno za: operativne 10,000,00€

Prihod prije kamate 12,547,12 €

Povraćaj na 15,68%

Povećanje zadovoljstva klijenata

Promjena u neto doprinosu market. 6,501,250€

Procentualna promjena u neto market. doprinosu 40,52%

Promjena prinosa od prodaje 8,13%

Procent. profit od povećanja na prihod 107,53%

Slika 1: 67% zadovoljnih klijenata

Tabela 1: Zadovoljstvo klijenata i neto doprinos - Zadovoljstvo 67%Tabela 2: Zadovoljstvo klijenata i neto doprinos - Zadovoljstvo 77%


BANKS AND CUSTOMERS

RATAINEDSatisfied

RATAINEDDisSat

LOST NEW OVERALL

# of Customers 335,000 38,775 126,225 126,225 500,000

Rev per Cust 20€ 15€ 10€ 50€

Sales Rev 67,000,00€ 5,816,25€ 12,622,50€ 6,311,25€ 91,750,00€

Variable Cost per Cust

75€ 80€ 50€ 35€

Margin per Cust 12€ 70€ 50€ 15€

Total Contribution 41,875,00€ 2,714,25€ 6,311,25€ 6,311,25€ 52,793,87€

Mktg Exp per Cust 50€ 60€ 40€ 10€

Total Mktg Exp 16,750,00 2,326,50€ 5,049,00€ 12,622,50€

Net Marketing Contri. 25,125,00€ 387,750€ 1,262,25€ (10,729,125) 16,045,87€

Less: Operating Expense 10,000,00€

Earning Before and Taxes 6,045 €

Return on Revenue 7,56%

RATAINEDSatisfied

RATAINEDDisSat

LOST NOV OVERALL

# of Customers 385,000 38,775 126,225 126,225 500,000

Rev per Cust 200€ 150€ 100€ 50€

Sales Rev 77,000,00€ 4,053,75€ 7,797,50€ 4,398,75€ 94,250,00€

Variable Cost per Cust

75€ 80€ 50€ 35€

Margin per Cust 125€ 70€ 50€ 15€

Total Contribution 48,125,00€ 1,891,75€ 4,398,75€ 1,319,62€ 55,735,12€

Mktg Exp per Cust 50€ 60€ 40€ 10€

Total Mktg Exp 19,250,00 1,621,50€ 3,519,00€ 8,797,50€

Net Marketing Contri. 28,875,00€ 270,250€ 879,750€ (7,477,875) 22,547,12€

Less: Operating Expense 10,000,00€

Earning Before and Taxes 12,547,12 €

Return on Revenue 15,68%

Increase in Customer Satisfaction

Change in Net Marketing Contribution 6,501,250€

Percentage Change in NMC 40,52%

Change on Return on Sale 8,13%

Percentage Gain on RoR 107,53%

Chart 1: 67% Satisfied Customers

Table 1: Customer Satisfaction and Marketing Contribution

When we examine the some of the details of these custo-mer categories, we find the revenue, the margin, and the marketing costs in each category to be completely diffe-rent. Revenues are not maximized until mature customer satisfaction is achieved. The cost of acquiring new customers is considerably higher than keeping an existing customer. In addition, the income from a new customer or an exiting customer is lower than that of a long-term satisfied customer.

From Table 1. you can see the financial impact of a 67% customer satisfaction rating on Net Marketing Contribution and Earnings. Given the impact of all the customer cate-gories, the total Net Marketing Contribution is 16M €. If the institution’s operating Expenses were 10M €, this would provide 6M € to Earnings and a 7,56% Return on Revenue.

There are two things that successful companies have learned to do and do well. The first is to provide a program where-by managers and executive actively listen to their customers and the problems that arise. The second is to empower their employees with the authority to solve customer problems.

If the institution were to increase the number of satisfied customers from 67% to just 77%, the effect on Earnings is immense (see Table 2). Not only do the customers (on ave-rage) stay with us longer, (3.9 versus 5.6 years) but the Net Marketing Contribution increases from 16M € to 22,5M € providing a return on Revenue of 15,68% or an increase of 40% over that at a 67% customer satisfaction level.

It should be clear from this analysis that your institution can’t afford to have customers telling everyone they know about a bad experience with you. Your company had bet-ter afford to make a decision about competitive and sustai-nable profitability by investing in and maintaining a supe-rior customer service program. Nothing else will leverage operations to profitability like improved customer service.

Table 2: Customer Satisfaction and Marketing Contribution

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16

jun 2010 | :BankarNEPOVJERENJE NA MEĐUNARODNOM TRŽIŠTU NOVCA

KMW PRISTUPOvaj pristup je uvela KMW Corporation koja se specijalizovala za analize kreditnog rizika. Poseduje ogromnu bazu podataka koja joj omogućava da daje ocene o vero-vatnoćama neizvršenja plaćanja i distri-buciji gubitaka vezano za rizik neizvršenje plaćanja i za rizik prelaska dužnika iz jedne u drugu kategoriju rizika.

Izvođenje očekivane verovatnoće neizvr-šenja obaveza, odnosno očekivane učesta-losti neizvršenja obaveza (expected default frequency - EDF) za svakog dužnika se zasniva na Mertonovom tipu modela (iz 1974) sa bitno izmenjenim pretpostavkama..

Parametar EDF je funkcija: strukture ka-pitala fi rme, stepena kolebljivosti prinosa na imovinu i tekuće vrednosti imovine fi rme.

U osnovi pristupa KMV-a je da vučnu snagu kreditnog rizika predstavlja dina-mika vrednosti imovine dužnika. Dakle, u ovom pristupu koji počiva na struktu-ralnom modelu kreditnog rizika, proces neizvršenja obaveza od strane date fi rme se posmatra kao eksplicitni rezultata po-goršanja njene vrednosti na tržištu.

Izvođenje stvarne verovatnoće neizvršen-ja obaveza teče kroz sledeće tri faze: prva - ocena tržišne vrednosti i kolebljivosti imovi-ne fi rme; druga - izračunavanje vremenske distance do momenta neizvršenja obaveza, koja predstavlja meru u vidu indeksa rizika neizvršenja obaveza; i treća - dovođenje u razmeru vremenske distance do neizvršenja obaveza sa stvarnim verovatnoćama neizvr-šenja obaveza, korišćenjem sopstvene baze podataka o neizvršenju obaveza.

Primena KMV pristupa se pokazala najprikladnijom u slučaju fi rmi čijim ak-cijama se aktivno trguje na berzi jer se in-formacije o kretanjima cena akcija i infor-macije iz njenih bilansa mogu prevesti u rizik neizvršenja plaćanja.

Stvarna verovatnoća neizvršenja oba-veza (actual probability of default) za bilo koji vremenski horizont – jednu godinu, dve godine, itd, pri datoj strukturi kapi-

tala fi rme može se izvesti čim se specifi ci-ra stohastički proces za vrednost imovine.

Sintezu opisa pojedinih faza se može prikazati na sledeći način:

Prva faza: Da bi svoj model učinio jas-nim sa aspekta postizanja krajnjeg prak-tičnog cilja, KMW je morao poći od sle-dećih pojednostavljenih pretpostavki: prvo, u strukturi kapitala korporacije fi guriraju samo akcije, kratkoročni dug (koji se treti-ra kao ekvivalent keša), dugoročni dug (in perpetual) i konvertibilne preferencijalne akcije. Ovo je povezano sa činjenicom da su u praksi dostupni podaci o cenama ak-cija za većinu kompanija čijim akcijama se trguje kao i time da se, u određenim sluča-jevima, samo delom duga aktivno trguje.

Ukoliko bi bili dostupni na dnevnoj os-novi podaci o tržišnim vrednostima poje-dinačnih stavki pasive (mark-to-market) fi rme, onda bi bilo jednostavno utvrditi ukupnu vrednost njene imovine i koleblji-vosti prinosa na imovinu. Ovo poslednje na osnovu istorijskih vremenskih serija ponovo ustanovljenih vrednosti imovine.

Osim navedenih, jedna od bitnih pre-tpostavki proističe iz korišćenja pristupa uslovnih potraživanja (contingent claim approach) kod utvrđivanja cena korpora-tivnih hartija od vrednosti. Drugim reči-ma, korporativne hartije od vrednosti se posmatraju kao uslovna potraživanja (op-cije) vezana za vrednost fi rme emitenta. U tom pristupu se pretpostavlja da su tržišne vrednosti imovine fi rme u logaritamskoj (log) formi normalno raspoređene tj. da pri-nos na imovinu u log formi sledi normalan raspored. KMW je na osnovu empirijskih istraživanja ustanovio da je ova hipoteze u priličnoj meri realistična i da je kolebljivost prihoda na imovinu relativno konstantna.

Pri navedenim pretpostavkama anali-tičko rešenje za vrednost akcija, S i njiho-vu kolebljivbost, σS je moguće izvesti na sledeći način:S = ƒ (V, σ, LR, c, r) (1)σs = g (V, σ, LR, c, r) (2)

Pri tom simboli imaju sledeće značenje: LR = koefi cijent zaduženosti (laverage ratio) u strukturi kapitala; c = prosečni kupon plaćen na dugoročni dug; r = bazična ka-matna stopa.

Ukoliko bi podatak o visini σs bio di-rektno čitljiv, jednačine (1) i (2) bi mogle biti rešene istovremeno za V i σ. Međutim, situacija se komplikuje jer je trenutna ko-lebljivost vrednosti akcija relativno nesta-bilna i faktički prilično osetljiva na prome-ne u vrednosti imovine. Dakle, ne postoji način da se precizno meri σs na osnovu podataka koji se mogu očitavati na tržiš-tu. S obzirom da se samo vrednost akcija može direktno očitavati, preostaje da se varijabla V izvuče iz jednačine (1) i prikaže kao funkcija vrednosti akcija ili cene akcija i kolebljivosti prinosa na aktivu:

V = h (S, σ, LR, c, r) (3)

U cilju podešavanja (kalibracije) svog mo-dela za σ KMV koristi tehniku iteracije.

Druga faza: Vremenska distanca do mo-menta neizvršenja obaveza (DD) se defi -niše kao vremenska distanca između oče-kivane vrednosti imovine u jednoj godini – E (V1) i tačke neizvršenja obaveza – DPT. Često se daje u izrazu standardnih devija-cija prinosa na imovinu:

DD = E (V1) - DPT

(4) σ

DD se izračunava prema sledećoj formuli:

DD = ln(V0 /DPTT ) + (μ - ½σ2 )T

(5) σ√T

Pri tom simboli imaju sledeće značenje: V0 = tekuća tržišna vrednost imovine; DPTT = tačka neizvršenja obaveza u vremen-skom periodu T; μ = očekivani prinos na imovinu, umanjen za odlive gotovine; σ = kolebljivost imovine na godišnjoj osnovi.

Merenje nansijskih rizika kod banaka (I)

1 Prvobitno korišćene pojednostavljene i time nerealistične pretpostavke o dinamici vrednosti fi rme i strukturi kapitala fi rme koje su Merton-u omogućile da dâ formulu za izračunavanje cena korporativnih obveznica i akcija, sličnu formuli Black i Scholes-a (iz 1973), vremenom su izbacivane u obimnoj literaturi koja je pretendovala da ovaj strukturni model rizika neizvršenja obaveza proširi i učini ga bližim realnosti – (šire o tome vidi: Servigny de A. and O. Renault, Ibid, str. 65-68; i Crouhy, M, D. Galai, R. Mark, Ibid, str. 360-364.)

Prof. dr Đorđe ĐukićEkonomski fakultet Beograd

17june 2010 | :Bankar LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT INTERNATIONAL MONEY MARKET

KMW APPROACHMN KMW Corporation, specialised in credit risk analysis, introduced this ap-proach. It has enormous database which enables assessing the probability of default and loss distribution regarding default risk and debtor’s risk of transferring from one to other risk category.

Expected probability of default, i.e. ex-pected default frequency (EDF) for each debtor is based on Merton model (from 1974) with materially altered assumptions.1

EDF indicator is the function of the fol-lowing: company’s capital structure, level of variability of return on assets and cur-rent value of assets of a company.

Within KMW approach, the dynamics of the debtor’s assets represents a driving force of the credit risk. In that respect, this approach is based on structural model of credit risk, and company’s default is viewed as explicit result of the deterioration of its value at the market.

Th e actual probability of default has three phases: fi rst - market value assessment and volatility of company’s assets; second - cal-culation of time horizon up to a moment of default, which represents a measure in the form of default risk index; and third - proportion of time horizon to the moment of default with real probabilities of default, using own database on defaults.

Th e implementation of the KMW appro-ach has proven to be the most appropriate one for companies which actively traded shares, since the information on equity prices and balance sheet can be translated into default risk.

Th e actual probability of default for any time horizon in capital structure, for exam-ple, one year, two years, can be calculated immediately aft er the stochastic process for the value of assets has been specifi ed.

Th e synthesis of individual phases can be presented as follows:

First phase: To make its model clear from

the aspect of achieving practical objective, KMW had to use the following simplifi ed assumptions: fi rstly, shares, short term debt (treated as cash equivalent), long term debt (in perpetual) and convertible priority sha-res can be found in the capital structure of a corporation. Th is is connected with the fact that data on equity prices for majority of actively traded companies are available in practice, and in specifi c cases, only a portion of debt is actively traded.

If data on market values of individual lia-bilities and capital items (mark-to-market) were available on daily basis, it would be easy to determine total value of its assets and volatility of return on assets. Th e latter could be determined based on historical time series of re-established asset values.

Besides the abovementioned, one of the important assumptions comes from the use of contingent claim approach in determi-ning prices of corporate securities. In other words, corporate securities are treated as conditional claims (options) connected to the value of issuer’s company. In that ap-proach, it is assumed that market values of assets of the company are normally distri-buted in logarithmic (log) format, i.e. return on assets in log format follows normal dis-tribution. Based on empirical researches, KMW determined that this hypothesis is largely realistic and volatility of return on assets is relatively constant.

With respect to the abovementioned as-sumptions, the analytical solution of the value of shares (S) and their volatility (σS) is possible to calculate as follows:

S = ƒ (V, σ, LR, c, r) (1)σs = g (V, σ, LR, c, r) (2)whereas, the symbols have the following meaning: LR = leverage ratio in capital structure; c = average coupon on long term debt; r = base interest rate.

If the information on the level of σs was directly shown, equations (1) and (2) could be solved simultaneously for both V and .

However, the situation is complicated sin-ce the current volatility of value of shares is relatively unstable, and practically it is sensitive to asset changes. Th ere is no way to measure precisely σs based on data that can be shown at the market. Since only the value of shares can be directly shown, the only thing that remains is variable V that should be derived from the equation (1) and shown as the function of equity value or equity prices and volatility of re-turn on assets:

V = h (S, σ, LR, c, r) (3)

In order to calibrate its model for σ, KMW uses iteration technique. Second phase: Time distance until de-fault distance (DD) is defi ned as time dis-tance between expected value of assets in one year – E (V1) and default point in time – DPT. It is oft en given as standard devia-tion of return on assets:

DD = E (V1) - DPT

(4) σ

DD is calculated as follows:

DD = ln(V0 /DPTT ) + (μ - ½σ2 )T

(5) σ√TWhereas, the symbols have the following meaning: V0 = current market value of assets; DPTT = default point in time T; μ = expected return on assets, reduced by cash outfl ows; σ = assets volatility on an annual basis.

Given the assumption on normal distri-bution in log format of the value of assets, KMW calculates the index DD as a number of standard deviations between mean value of distribution of assets and key threshold - „default point“. Th is threshold is determi-ned as nominal value of current liabilities including short term debt that has to be serviced during time period plus one half of long tern debts. Graph 1 shows in grey area below that default point equals N(-DD).

Financial RiskMeasurement In Banks (I)

Th e original use of simplifi ed and thus unrealistic assumption of the dynamics of company’s value and its capital structure which enabled Merton to give the formula for the calculation of prices of corporate bonds and equities, similar to the one made by Black and Scholes (from 1973), was excluded from the literature that focused more on this structural model of default risk trying to expand it and make it closer to reality – (see more: Servigny de A. and O. Renault, Ibid, p. 65-68; and Crouhy, M, D. Galai, R. Mark, Ibid, p. 360-364.)

Prof. Đorđe Đukić, PhDEkonomski fakultet Beograd

18

jun 2010 | :Bankar

Dakle, pri datoj pretpostavci o normalnom rasporedu u log formi vrednosti imovine, KMV izračunava indeks DD kao broj stan-dardnih devijacija između srednje vrednosti distribucije vrednosti imovine i kritičnog praga – „tačke neizvršenja obaveza“. Taj prag je utvrđen kao nominalna vrednost tekućih obaveza, uključujući kratkoroč-ni dug, koje se moraju servisirati tokom vremenskog perioda, plus jedna polovina dugoročnog duga. Na grafi konu 1. se vidi da je osenčena površina ispod tačke nei-zvršenja obaveza jednaka N(-DD).

Simboli: STD = kratkoročni dug; LTD = dugoročni dug; DPT = tačka neizvršenja obaveze; DD = „distanca do neizvršenja obaveze“: razlika između očekivane vred-nosti aktive nakon jedne godine, E(V1), i tačke neizvršenja obaveze.

Često se izražava u izrazu standardne devijacije prinosa na aktivu:

DD = E = E(V1) 2 DPT

σTreća faza: Obuhvata nanošenje vrednosti DD u koordinatni sistem u kome fi guriraju stvarne verovatnoća neizvršenja obaveza za dati vremenski period – EDF, po oznaka-ma KMV-a (vidi grafi kon 2). Zahvaljujući informacijama koje poseduje o ogromnom broju fi rmi, uključujući i fi rme koje nisu izvršile svoje obaveze, KMV može za dati vremenski period da oceni učešće broja fi rmi, pri datom nivou DD, koje će stvar-no doći u situaciju da nakon jedne godine ne mogu da izvrše svoje obaveze.

Primer koji je vezan za grafi kon 2:Tekuća tržišna vrednost imovine: V0 = 1000Očekivani godišnji rast imovine (neto): 20%Očekivana vrednost imovinenakon jedne godine: V0(1,20) = 1200Kolebljivost imovine na godišnjem nivou, σ: 100Tačka neizvršenja obaveza: 800Na osnovu navedenih podataka izvodi se:

DD = 1200-800 = 4 100Na osnovu pretpostavke da je u grupi od 5000 fi rmi koje imaju DD = 4 u jednom vremenskom trenut-ku njih 20 došlo u situaciju da ne izvršava obaveze jednu godinu kasnije, izvodi se vrednost EDF-a od 40 bazičnih poena:

EDFjedna godina= 20

= 40 bp ili 0,4% 5000

Kao što se vidi iz tabele 2, odgovarajući rajting za ova-ko utvrđenu verovatnoću neizvršenja obaveza je BB+.

EDF S&P0,02-0,04% AAA0,04-0,10% AA/A0,10-0,19% A/BBB+0,19-0,40% BBB+BBB-0,40-0,72% BBB-/BB0,72-1,01% BB/BB-1,01-1,43% BB-/B+1,43-2,02% B+/B2,02-3,45% B/B-

Praktičari najčešće nakon izračunavanja EDF-a izvode tabelu u kojoj uporedo sa EDF prikazuju pojedine klase rejtinga. Međutim, to poređenje nosi rizik pogreš-nog rasuđivanja jer je reč o dve sasvim raz-ličite mere kreditnog rizika. EDF je mera koja izražava rizik u datom trenutku tj. fo-kusira se na verovatnoću neizvršenja oba-veza u vremenu od jedne godine. Rejtinzi predstavljaju ocenu kreditne sposobnosti tokom ciklusa, pa samim tim ne mogu biti redukovani na verovatnoću neizvršenja obaveza tokom jedne godine.

Sumirajući dosadašnja iskustva u pri-meni modela merenje kreditnog rizika zasnovanih na cenama akcija Servigny i Renault su zaključili da su se pokazali dobrim. Obezbeđuju korisne rane infor-macije u pogledu promene položaja da-tog dužnika u matrici rejtinga i u pogledu nastupanja slučaja neizvršenja obaveza jer odražavaju viđenje tržišta o visini verovat-

noće neizvršenja obaveza datog dužnika. Time oni obezbeđuju vredne rane signa-le koji koriste analitičarima zaduženim u bankama za merenje izloženosti banke kreditnom riziku na nivou celog portfelja.

No, na drugoj strani, zbog ispoljenih manjkavosti, pre svega mnogo veće pro-cikličnosti u odnosu na utvrđene rejtinge tokom privrednog ciklusa u celini, rezul-tati koji se dobijaju upotrebom tih model mogu služiti samo kao korisna dopuna nalazima analize fundamentalnih faktora koji opredeljuju poslovanje fi rme.2

CREDIT METRICSOvaj model je objavljen 1997. od strane JP Morgan3. CreditMetrics počiva na anali-zi kreditne migracije (credit migration) i koristi istorijske podatke o prosečnim frek-vencijama prelaza iz jedne grupe u drugu kod matrice rejtinga tokom datog vremen-skog perioda (najčešće od godinu dana), kao i druge inpute.

Faktički, modelira se buduća distribucija vrednosti bilo kog portfelja obveznica ili kredita, pri čemu su te vrednosti dovode u vezu samo sa kreditnom migracijom ka višem ili nižem nivou na rejting skali koja odražava kreditni kvalitet dužnika kao i stanje njegove nesposobnosti da izvrši oba-veze. U pogledu uključivanja kamatnih sto-pa u model, pretpostavlja se da je njihovo dejstvo unapred determinisano.

S obzirom da se podaci o faktičkoj vred-nosti imovine dužnika ne mogu direktno očitavati, u CreditMetrics modelu se pri-begava korišćenju cena akcija dužnika kao varijabli koja predstavlja vrednost imovine dužnika (proxy varijablu). Reč je o pojednostavljenju koje može bitno da utiče na preciznost dobijenih rezultata primenom tog modela.

CreditMetrics model za merenje kredit-nog rizika čine sledeće dve celine: utvrđi-vanje rizične vrednosti („Value at Risk Due to Credit“) za pojedinačni fi nansijski in-strument; i utvrđivanje rizične vrednosti na nivou portfelja („Portfolio Value at Risk Due to Credit“) koja objašnjava efekte di-versifi kacije portfelja.

Iz prve celine koja se odnosi na kredit-nu rizičnu vrednost za obveznicu biće pri-kazani samo elementi tj. koraci koji omo-gućavaju razumevanje druge celine. Prvi

Grafikon 2. Veza izmeðu unetih vrednosti DD i EDF za dati period

Grafikon 1. Vremenska distanca do neizvršenja obaveze (DD)

Tabela 2. EDF i odgovarajuæa klasa rejtinga

2 Procikličnost u ovom kontekstu znači da u periodima buma na tržištu akcija ovi modeli su pristrasni, jer pripisuju mnogo manje verovatnoće neizvršenja obaveza gotovo svim fi rmama. Obrnuto, u periodima recesije pripisuju veće verovatnoće neizvršenja obaveza mnogo većem broju fi rmi nego što je slučaj u stvarnosti.

3 CreditMetrics model koji danas nudi RiskMetrics Group klijentima, iako zasnovan na modelu JP Morgan, bitno je različit od njega u pogledu metodologije za merenje, upravljanje i kontrolu kreditnog rizika u sferi investicionog bankarstva. Detaljnu prezentaciju modela vidi u: RiskMetrics Group, CreditMetrics Technical Document, www.riskmetrics.com Soft verski paket koji je JP Morgan razvio pod imenom CreditManager je raspoloživ i omogućava korisnicima da primene metodologiju CreditMetrics u cilju merenja i analiziranja kreditnog rizika kod celog portfelja.

NEPOVERENJE NA MEĐUNARODNOM TRŽIŠTU NOVCA

19june 2010 | :Bankar

Symbols: STD = short term debt; LTD = long term debt; DPT = default point in time; DD = „default distance“: the diff eren-ce between expected value of assets aft er one year E(V1), and default point in time.

It is oft en expressed as standard devia-tion of return on assets:

DD = E = E(V1) 2 DPT

σTh ird phase: Distribution distance is in-cluded into coordinated system where the actual probability of default for specifi c time period – EDF exists (See Graph 2). Th anks to information on enormous num-ber of companies, including also defaulted companies, KMW may assess for specifi c time period, taking into consideration DD, the percentage of a number of companies that wiltl not meet their obligations even aft er one year period.

Example connected with Graph 2:Current assets value: V0 = 1000Expected annual assets growth (net): 20%Expected assets valueaft er one year period: V0(1,20) = 1200Volatility at annual level, σ: 100Default distribution: 800Based on the abovementioned data the following is calculated:

DD = 1200-800 = 4 100Based on the assumption that in a group of 5000 com-panies, which DD is 4, twenty companies defaulted one year later in one time period, the value EDF 40 basic points is calculated:

EDFone year= 20

= 40 bp ili 0.4% 5000

As shown in Table 2 below, the corresponding rating for this probability of default is BB+.

EDF S&P0,02-0,04% AAA0,04-0,10% AA/A0,10-0,19% A/BBB+0,19-0,40% BBB+BBB-0,40-0,72% BBB-/BB0,72-1,01% BB/BB-1,01-1,43% BB-/B+1,43-2,02% B+/B2,02-3,45% B/B-

After calculating EDF, the practitio-ners frequently prepare a table in which they compare EDF with some rating cate-gories. However, this comparison bears a risk of misjudgement, since these are two completely diff erent credit risk measure-ments. EDF is a measure that shows risk in the specifi c moment, i.e. it is focused on the probability of default in one-year period. Ratings represent assessment of credit capacity during specifi c cycle, and they cannot be reduced to the probability of default during one year.

Summing up all past experiences occur-red in the application of the credit risk me-asurement model that are based on equity prices, Servigny and Renault came to the conclusion that those have proven to be good. Th ey provide early information both with respect to the change in position of a debtor in rating matrix, and with respect to default, since they refl ect market per-ception of debtor’s probability of default. In that respect, they provide valuable early signals that are used by analysts responsible in banks for t-he measurement of banks’ exposure to credit risks for entire portfolio.

On the other hand, due to shortcomings such as procyclicity in comparison to de-termined ratings during economic cycle as a whole, the results obtained using such models may serve only as useful addition to

the fi ndings of fundamental factors’ analy-sis that determines the company activities.2

CREDIT METRICSTh is model was published by JP Morgan3 in 1997. CreditMetrics is based on the analysis of credit migration and uses historical data on average frequencies of transfer from one group to another in rating matrix during specifi c time period (mostly one year), as well as other inputs.

Future distribution of value of any bond or loan portfolio is modelled, whereby those values are connected only with credit migra-tion towards higher or lower level at rating scale that refl ects credit quality of debtors and their defaults. With respect to the in-clusion of interest rates into model, it is as-sumed that their activity is predetermined.

Since the information of actual assets value of debtors cannot be shown directly, CreditMetrics model uses equity prices of debtors as variables which represent value of debtors’ assets (proxy variable). Th is simplifi cation can largely infl uence on the precision of obtained results when apply-ing this model.

CreditMetrics model for credit risk me-asurement is composed of the following components: Value at Risk Due to Credit for individual fi nancial instrument; and Portfolio Value at Risk Due to Credit which explains portfolio diversifi cation eff ects.

Elements i.e. steps that enable understan-ding of the second component will only be shown from the fi rst component that re-fers to VaR due to credit for bond. Th e fi rst step specifi es rating system and probability of migrations from one rating category to another during period for which credit risk exposure is determined. Transition matrix produced by rating agencies Moody’s or S&P is mostly used.4

In the second step, one year is mostly determined as time horizon, while the third step details forward discount curve for specifi ed period in which risk is me-asured for each credit category.5 Th e last step calculates future distribution of chan-ges in portfolio value with migration from

Graph 2 – Connection between values of DD and EDF for period, Source: Ibid, p. 373-375.

Table 2 - EDF and corresponding rating categoriesSource: Crouhy, M., D. Galai, R. Mark, Ibid, p. 379.

Graph 1 – Default distance (DD)Source: Croohy, M., D. Galai, R. Mark, Ibid, p. 373.

2 Procyclicity in this context means that in period of equity market boom, these models are biased, since they attribute less probability of defaults to almost all companies. In recession periods, they attribute higher probability of defaults to higher number of companies than it is the real case.

3 CreditMetrics model, which RiskMetrics Group off ers to clients nowadays, although based on JP Morgan model, diff ers signifi cantly in methodology for credit risk measurement, management and control in investment banking. See detail presentation of this model in: Risk-Metrics Group, CreditMetrics Technical Document, www.riskmetrics.com. CreditManager, a soft ware package developed by JP Morgan enables users to apply CreditMetrics methodology for measuring and analysing credit risk in entire portfolio.

4 Th e assumptions used in CreditMetrics model are the following: homogeneity of all elements within the same rating category regarding credit risk; same probabilities of transfer from specifi c rating category to another and same probabilities of defaults are attributed to these issuers. One year is used as time horizon.

5 Th e value of instrument in case of default should be rated in demonstration of recovery rate as the percentage of nominal amount of claim.

LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT INTERNATIONAL MONEY MARKET

20

jun 2010 | :Bankarkorak se odnosi na specifi ciranje sistema rejtinga sa kategorijama rejtinga i na spe-cifi ciranje verovatnoća migracije iz jedne kategorije u drugu kategoriju rejtinga to-kom perioda za koji se utvrđuje izloženost kreditnom riziku. Pri tom, najčešće se ko-riste tranzicione matrice u formi koju pro-dukuju rejting agencije Moody’s ili S&P.4

U drugom koraku se kao vremenski ho-rizont najčešće određuje jedna godina, dok se u trećem koraku specifi cira terminska kriva diskonta (forward discount curve) za utvrđeni period za koji se meri rizik za svaku kreditnu kategoriju.5 U poslednjem koraku izvodi se buduća distribucija prome-na u vrednosti portfelja zajedno sa migra-cijom iz jedne u drugu kategoriju rejtinga.

Ovde će biti prikazan primer emitenta ob-veznice sa rejtingom BBB koji navode Crouhy, Galai i Mark na osnovu podataka S&P.

Kao što se vidi iz tabele 3. koja prikazuje tranzicionu matricu koju je ustanovila rejting agencija S&P u slučaju emitenta obvezni-ce sa rejtingom BBB (osenčen red) važi da je najverovatnije da će tokom perioda od jedne godine taj emitent (dužnik) zadrža-ti isti rejting tj. verovatnoća tog slučaja je 86,93%. Nasuprot tome, verovatnoća da će taj emitent doći u situaciju da ne izvršava svoje obaveze tokom pomenutog perioda je samo 0,18%. Još je manja verovatnoća (0,02%) da će preći u grupu sa najvećim rejtingom – AAA.

Sa prethodnom tabelom povezana je tabe-la 4. koju produkuje S&P, a odnosi se na dugoročne prosečne kumulativne stope neizvršenja obaveza.

Kao što se vidi iz osenčene površine u pre-thodnoj tabeli, u slučaju dužnika sa rejtin-gom BBB verovatnoća da neće izvršiti svoje

obaveze tokom jedne godine iznosi 0,18% a, primera radi, verovatnoća da neće izvr-šiti svoje obaveze tokom deset godina iz-nosi 4,34%.

Iz tabele 4. je moguće izvesti tranzicio-nu matricu koja predstavlja najbolju ko-piju prosečne kumulativne stope neizvr-šenja obaveze. Pri tom se pretpostavlja da proces koji vodi neizvršenju obaveza sledi Markov-ljev red i da je stacionaran. Posledično, množeći tranzicionu matricu na godišnjem nivou sa n dolazi se da mat-rice u n-toj godini.

S obzirom da u stvarnosti verovatnoće prelaza dužnika iz jedne klase rejtinga u drugu i verovatnoće neizvršenja obaveza variraju, u znatnoj meri, u zavisnosti od faze privrednog ciklusa, poželjno je u pri-meni modela izvršiti korekcije prosečnih istorijskih vrednosti datih u tabeli 4. Ovo na osnovu ocena tekućih (u datoj godi-ni) prilika u privredi. Agencija Moody’s je objavila rezultate naručene studije (za grupu dužnika čiji rejting određuje) koji se odnose na prosečne stope neizvršenja obaveza i standardne devijacije u periodu 1970-1995 (tabela 5). Upravo na osnovu takvih podataka se mogu vršiti nužne ko-rekcije prvobitnih procena. Način na koji se izvode buduće vrednosti obveznice kroz specifi ciranje modela utvrđivanja cena je dat u prilogu 3.

U tabeli 6. je prikazana distribucija vred-nosti obveznice i promene u vrednosti ob-veznice emitenta sa rejtingom BBB tokom jedne godine usled promene u kreditnom kvalitetu. Tu distribuciju karakterišu u donjem delu skale rejtinga veliki (naglo rastući) procenti smanjenja vrednosti, a u gornjem delu skale rejtinga mali (bla-go rastući) procenti povećanja vrednosti.

Da je asimetrija očigledna u odnosu na pretpostavku o postojanju normalnog raspo-reda, najbolje pokazuje poređenje prvog procenta distribucije ΔV od -23,91 koji ko-respondira rizičnoj kreditnoj vrednosti pri

Tabela 3. Tranziciona matrica S&P: verovatnoæe migracije iz jednog u drugi nivo rejtinga tokom jedne godine

Tabela 4. Proseène kumulativne stope neizvršenja obaveza

Tabela 5. Stope neizvršenja obaveza na godišnjem nivou prema skali rejtinga – period 1970-1995.

4 Pretpostavke od kojih se polazi u CreditMetrics modelu su: prvo, homogenost svih emitenata u okviru iste klase rejtinga u pogledu kreditnog rizika; drugo, tim emitentima se pripisuju iste verovatnoće prelaza iz date klase rejtinga u drugu klasu rejtinga i iste verovatnoće neizvršenja obaveze. Kao vremenski horizont se najčešće koristi jedna godina.

5 Vrednost instrumenta u slučaju neizvršenja obaveza bi tebalo da se ocenjuje u izrazu stope naplate potraživanja („recovery rate“), kao procenta od nominalne vrednosti potraživanja.

Inicijalni rejting

Rejting na kraju godine (%)

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D*

AAA 90,81 8,33 0,68 0,06 0,12 0 0 0

AA 0,70 90,65 7,79 0,64 0,06 0,14 0,02 0

A 0,09 2,77 91,05 5,52 0,74 0,26 0,01 0,06

BBB 0,02 0,33 5,95 86,93 5,30 1,17 0,12 0,18

BB 0,03 0,14 0,67 7,73 80,53 8,84 1,00 1,06

B 0 0,11 0,24 0,43 6,48 83,46 4,07 5,20

C 0,22

Kreditni rejtingGodišnja stopa neizvršenja obaveza

Prosek % Standardna devijacija

Aaa 0,00 0,0

Aa 0,03 0,1

A 0,01 0,0

Baa 0,13 0,3

Ba 1,42 1,3

B 7,62 5,1

Trajanje 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15

AAA 0,00 0,00 0,07 0,15 0,24 0,66 1,40 1,40

AA 0,00 0,02 0,12 0,25 0,43 0,89 1,29 1,48

A 0,06 0,16 0,27 0,4 0,67 1,12 2,17 3,00

BBB 0,18 0,44 0,72 1,27 1,78 2,99 4,34 4,70

BB 1,06 3,48 6,12 8,68 10,97 14,46 17,73 19,91

B 5,20 11,00 15,95 19,40 21,88 25,14 29,02 30,65

C 19,79 26,92 31,63 35,97 40,15 42,64 45,10 45,10

NEPOVJERENJE NA MEĐUNARODNOM TRŽIŠTU NOVCA

21june 2010 | :Bankar LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT INTERNATIONAL MONEY MARKET

matrix was determined by rating agency S&P. In case of bond issuer with rating BBB (in dark below), it is very likely that this issuer (debtor) will keep the same rating during one year period, i.e. the probabili-ty is 86.93%. However, the probability that this debtor will be in a situation to default during the observed period is only 0.18%. It is even less likely (0.02%) that the deb-tor will move to a group with highest ra-ting – AAA.Initial rating

Year-end rating (%)

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D*

AAA 90.81 8.33 0.68 0.06 0.12 0 0 0

AA 0.70 90.65 7.79 0.64 0.06 0.14 0.02 0

A 0.09 2.77 91.05 5.52 0.74 0.26 0.01 0.06

BBB 0.02 0.33 5.95 86.93 5.30 1.17 0.12 0.18

BB 0.03 0.14 0.67 7.73 80.53 8.84 1.00 1.06

B 0 0.11 0.24 0.43 6.48 83.46 4.07 5.20

C 0.22

Table 4, produced by S&P, is connected with the previous Table, and it refers to long term average cumulative default rates.Duration 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15

AAA 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.66 1.40 1.40

AA 0.00 0.02 0.12 0.25 0.43 0.89 1.29 1.48

A 0.06 0.16 0.27 0.4 0.67 1.12 2.17 3.00

BBB 0.18 0.44 0.72 1.27 1.78 2.99 4.34 4.70

BB 1.06 3.48 6.12 8.68 10.97 14.46 17.73 19.91

B 5.20 11.00 15.95 19.40 21.88 25.14 29.02 30.65

C 19.79 26.92 31.63 35.97 40.15 42.64 45.10 45.10

As shown in dark column above, in case of debtor with rating BBB, the probability of default during one year period is 0.18% and, probability of default, for example, within ten years is 4.34%.

It is possible to calculate transition mat-rix from Table 4, which represents the best copy of average cumulative default rate. It is assumed that the process, which leads to default, follows Markov order and it is stationed. Consequently, multiplying an-nual transition matrix by n, the matrix in nth year is obtained.

Since in reality probabilities of transfer of debtor from one rating category to another and probabilities of default vary signifi can-tly depending on the economic cycle, it is desirable to make corrections of average historical values from Table 4. Th is is based on the prices of current circumstances in economy in specifi c year. Moody’s published results of the ordered study (for a group of debtors which rating is being determined) that refer to average default rates and stan-dard deviations in period 1970-1995 (Table 5). Based on such data, important corrections

of original assessments may be made. Th e manner of the calculation of future value of bonds through specifying pricing model is given in Attachment 3.

Credit ratingAnnual default rate

Average % Standard deviation (%)

Aaa 0.00 0.0

Aa 0.03 0.1

A 0.01 0.0

Baa 0.13 0.3

Ba 1.42 1.3

B 7.62 5.1

Table 6 shows distribution of bond value and change in issuer’s bond with BBB ra-ting during one year due to change in cre-dit quality. Such distribution in the lower part of rating scale is characterised by big (highly increasing) percentages of decrease in value, and in lower part of rating scale, it is characterised by small (slightly incre-asing) percentages of increase in value.

Th e fact that asymmetry is obvious in comparison with the assumption on normal distribution is best shown by the compari-son of the fi rst distribution percentage ΔV of -23.91 which corresponds to credit risk value with confi dence interval of 99%. To wit, ΔV would amount to only negative 7.43 in normal distribution and same confi dence interval, which means that the decrease in bond value would be far lower in relation to the fi rst case shown in Table 6 below.

Th e example that refers to mutual pro-bability migrations with zero correlation will be shown from the second component of CreditMetrics model that refers to por-tfolio VaR due to loan or bond. It refers to two issuers with the initial ratings BB and A (Table 7). In this case Table 3 is the basic point. It is assumed that lack of correlation between credit quality changes exists. In this case, mutual probability that debtor 1 and debtor 2 will remain in the same rating ca-tegory is the product of probability that the A bond will keep this rating by the end of the year – 91.05% and probability that BB bond will keep rating BB – 85.53%:

73,32% = 80,53% x 91,05%.Year-end rating

Probability p (%)

Future price:V ($)

Change in value ΔV ($)

AAA 0.02 109.35 1.82

AA 0.33 109.17 1.64

A 5.95 108.64 1.11

BBB 86.93 107.53 0

BB 5.30 10.00 -5.53

B 1.17 98.08 -9.45

CCC 0.12 83.62 -23.91

D 0.18 51.11 -56.42

Table 4 – Average cumulative default rates - In %

Table 5 – Annual default rates based on rating scale – period 1970-1995.

Table 6 – Distribution of bond value and change in bond value with BBB rating during one year

Table 3 – S&P transition matrix: migrations from one rating category to another during one year period

one rating category to another. Th e example of bond issuer of BBB sta-

ted by Crouhy, Galai and Mark based on S&P data will be shown here.

As presented in Table 3 below, transition

22

jun 2010 | :Bankar

8

intervalu poverenja od 99%. Naime, pri normalnoj distribuciji i istom intervalu poverenja ΔV bi iznosilo samo -7,43, što znači da bi smanjenje vrednosti obveznice bilo daleko manje u odnosu na prvi slučaj prikazan u tabeli 6.

Iz druge celine CreditMetrics modela koja se odnosi na rizičnu vrednost na ni-vou portfelja za zajmove ili obveznice biće prikazan primer zajedničke migracija ve-rovatnoća sa nultom korelacijom za dva emitenta sa inicijalnim rejtingom BB i A (tabela 7). U ovom slučaju se polazi od ta-bele 3. Pretpostavlja se odsustvo korelacije između promena u kreditnom kvalitetu. Primera radi, zajednička verovatnoća da će dužnik 1 i dužnik 2 ostati u istoj klasi rejtinga je proizvod verovatnoće da će ob-veznica sa rejtingom A zadržati taj rejting krajem godine - 91,05% i verovatnoće da će obveznica BB zadržati rejting BB - 85,53%:

73,32% = 80,53% x 91,05%.

Međutim, upotrebna vrednost prethod-ne tabele u praksi nije velika kada se žele oceniti efekti diversifi kacije kod velikih portfelja zajmova i obveznica. Jednostavno, u realnosti korelacije između promena u kreditnom kvalitetu nisu na nultom nivou. Dakle, rizična vrednost kod portfelja koji je izložen kreditnom riziku (credit VaR) je osetljiva na pomenute korelacije, pa opti-mizacija portfelja sa kreditnim rizikom nije

moguća bez preciznih ocena tih korelacija. Da bi se dobila celovita distribucija vred-nosti portfelja, umesto navedenog pristupa, pribegava se primeni Monte Carlo simu-lacija sa projektovanim koracima. S obzi-rom da se Monte Carlo simulacije dugo koriste kod merenja izloženosti tržišnom riziku kod portfelja pojedinih fi nansij-skih instrumenata (market VaR), njihove karakteristike će biti opisane u narednom delu, posvećenom merenju tržišnih rizika.

Na grafi konu 3. se najbolje vide efekti primera prisustva korelacije na zajednič-ku verovatnoću neizvršenja obaveza za dva dužnika sa rejtingom BB i A.

Polazeći od činjenice da se rizična vred-nost kod kredita izvodi na sličan način kao rizična vrednost u knjizi trgovanja – kod izloženosti tržišnom riziku, ograničenja modela CreditMetrics kod merenja kre-ditnog rizika vezanog za portfelj kredita se mogu sintetski iskazati na sledeći način:1. Prinosi kod kreditnih portfelja u realnos-ti ispoljavaju takva kretanja koja su da-leko od toga da se mogu prikazati krivom sa normalnom distribucijom vrednosti. Obično su data u vidu krive koja odražava brojne asimetrije u pogledu gustine frek-vencija prinosa kod portfelja kredita, što je povezano sa tim da poboljšanje kredit-nog kvaliteta donosi investitoru ograniče-no kretanje naviše, a pogoršanje kreditnog kvaliteta sa sobom mu donosi osetna kre-tanja naniže (vidi grafi kon 4).

2. Prilikom računanja rizične vrednosti kod kredita nužno je primeniti simulaciju čitave distribucije promena u vrednosti portfelja. Dakle, ne može se kao kod rizične vred-

nosti izazvane tržišnim rizikom dati oce-na distribucije procentualnog nivoa samo na osnovu srednje vrednosti i varijanse.3. Merenje efekata diversifi kacije na vred-nost portfelja je mnogo kompleksnija kod kreditnog rizika nego kod tržišnog rizika jer zahteva ocenu korelacija kod prome-na u kreditnom kvalitetu kod svih parova dužnika. S obirom da se te ocene zasnivaju na zajedničkoj verovatnoći prinosa na ak-cije dužnika, u CreditMetrics modelu se moralo pribeći pojednostavljenim pre-tpostavkama u pogledu strukture kapitala dužnika i procesa koji utiču na stvaranje prinosa kod akcija.4. Na osnovu ocena o prisustvu korelaci-ja između prinosa na akcije kod različitih dužnika i zajedničke distribucije tih prinosa se izvodi zaključak o postojanju korelacija između promena u kreditnom kvalitetu. S tim u vezi, posebno je ograničena upot-rebna vrednost dobijenih rezultata pri-menom ovog modela kod kompanija koje su visoko zadužene i kod kojih prinosi na akcije ispoljavaju znatno veću nestabil-nost u odnosu na nestabilnost vrednosti imovine dužnika.

CREDIT RISC+ Ovaj model je uveden u praksu krajem 1997. od strane Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB). Predstavlja modifi kaciju modela razvijenog od strane investicione banke Credit Suisse Financial Products u cilju ustanovljavanja nivoa rezervi za gubitke po datim zajmovima.

CreditRisc+ model sledi u potpunosti ak-tuarski pristup, tj. zasniva se na modelima mortaliteta koje primenjuju osiguravaju-će kompanije. To znači da se kod mere-nja kreditnog rizika koriste istorijske stope neizvršenja obaveza koje beleži statistika kod različitih klasa kredita.6 CreditRisk+ model ignoriše sledeće varijable: promene u cenama hartija od vrednosti, promene u spredu u pogledu neizvršenja obaveze (koji zavisi od koefi cijenta zaduženosti, kolebljivosti vrednosti osnovnog oblika imovine i roka dospeća duga) i kretanja iz jedne u drugu kategoriju rejtinga dužnika („migration risc“). Dakle, u njemu ne fi -guriraju pretpostavke o uzrocima neizvr-šenja obaveze. Usled toga se smatra da je prikladniji za investitore koji slede strategije

Grafikon 3. Verovatnoæa zajednièkog neizvršenja obaveza kao funkcija korelacije prinosa na imovinu

Grafikon 4. Poreðenje distribucija verovatnoæa za prinose na kredit i tržišne prinose

6 Detaljnu prezentaciju ovog komercijalnog modela vidi u: CreditRisk+, A Credit Risk Management Framework, www.csfb .com CSFB je razvio soft ver koji omogućava korisnicima da primene metodologiju CreditRisk+ u rad-nom listu u Microsoft Excel-u. Korisnici imaju moguć-nost da unesu u radni list statičke podatke za ogroman broj dužnika – do 4000, te da koriste primer portfelja od 25 dužnika i stopa neizvršenja obaveza i kolebljivosti tih stopa (koje su pripisane preko uzorka kreditnih rejtinga).


Tabela 6. Distribucija vrednosti obveznice i promene u vrednosti obveznice sa rejtingom BBB tokom jedne godine

Tabela 7. Zajednièke verovatnoæe migracije (procenat) sa nultomkorelacijom za dva emitenta sa rejtingom BB i A

Dužnik 1

(BB)

Dužnik 2

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC

Neizvr-šenje oba-veza

0,09 2,27 91,05 5,52 0,74 0,26 0,01 0,06

AAA 0,03 0,00 0,00 0,03 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

AA 0,14 0,00 0,00 0,13 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

A 0,67 0,00 0,02 0,61 0,40 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

BBB 7,73 0,01 0,18 7,04 0,43 0,06 0,02 0,00 0,00

BB 80,53 0,07 1,,83 73,32 4,45 0,60 0,20 0,01 0,05

B 8,84 0,01 0,20 8,05 0,49 0,07 0,02 0,00 0,00

C 1,00 0,00 0,02 0,91 0,06 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00

Neizvr-šenjeoba-veza(def-ault D)

1.06 0,00 0,02 0,97 0,06 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00

Rejting na kraju godine

Verovatnoæastanja p (%)

Buduæa cena:V ($)

Promena u vrednosti ΔV ($)

AAA 0,02 109,35 1,82

AA 0,33 109,17 1,64

A 5,95 108,64 1,11

BBB 86,93 107,53 0

BB 5,30 10,00 -5,53

B 1,17 98,08 -9,45

CCC 0,12 83,62 -23,91

D 0,18 51,11 -56,42


9

Debtor 1

(BB)

Debtor 2

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC Default

0.09 2.27 91.05 5.52 0.74 0.26 0.01 0.06

AAA 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

AA 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

A 0.67 0.00 0.02 0.61 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

BBB 7.73 0.01 0.18 7.04 0.43 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00

BB 80.53 0.07 1..83 73.32 4.45 0.60 0.20 0.01 0.05

B 8.84 0.01 0.20 8.05 0.49 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00

C 1.00 0.00 0.02 0.91 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Default- D 1.06 0.00 0.02 0.97 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

However, the value from the previous table is not high in practice when the di-versifi cation eff ects need to be assessed in large loan and bond portfolios. In reality, correlations between changes in credit qu-ality are not at zero level. Portfolio value at risk due to a credit (credit VaR) is sensitive to the mentioned correlations so optimisa-tion of portfolio with credit risk is not po-ssible without precise assessments of these correlations. To obtain entire distribution of the portfolio, Monte Carlo simulation with the projected steps is used instead of the aforesaid approach. Since Monte Carlo simulations have been used for long time for measurement of the market risk exposure in individual fi nancial instruments portfo-lio (market VaR), their characteristics will be described in the next part dedicated to market risk measurement.

Graph 3 shows eff ects of correlation on mutual probability of defaults for two deb-tors rated BB and A.

Credit VaR is calculated in the similar man-ner as trading book VaR. Th e limitations of the CreditMetrics model in market risk exposures concerning measuring credit risk tied to loan portfolio can be synthetically shown as follows:

1. Returns on loan portfolios show such mo-vements that they cannot be presented by the curve with normal distribution. Th ey are usually given as a curve that refl ects numerous asymmetries regarding densi-

ty of frequencies of returns on loan port-folios. Th is is connected with the fact that the improvement of credit quality brings to investor limited movement upward, and deterioration of credit quality brings mo-vements downward (see graph 4).

2. When calculating credit VaR, it is ne-cessary to apply simulation of entire distri-bution of changes to the value of portfolio. Th erefore, the assessment of distribution of percentage cannot be given only based on mean value and variance as in market VaR.

3. Measurement of the diversifi cation ef-fects on the value of portfolio is more com-plex in credit than in market risk, since it requires the assessment of correlation of changes in credit quality of all debtor pa-irs. Since these assessments are based on mutual probability of return on equities of debtors, CreditMetrics model had to use simplifi ed assumptions for debtors’ capital structure and processes infl uencing on the creation of return on equities.

4. Based on the assessments on the pre-sence of the correlations between returns on equities of diff erent debtors and mu-tual distribution of those returns, it may be concluded that the correlation between changes in credit quality exists. In that res-pect, the value of the results obtained from this model is limited in companies that are highly leveraged and that have their return on equities highly instable in relation to the instability of the debtors’ assets.

CREDIT RISC+

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) intro-duced this model in the practice at the end of 1997. It represents the modifi cation of the model that the investment bank Credit Suisse Financial Products has produced to establish loan loss provisions.

CreditRisc+ model completely follows ac-tuarial approach, i.e. it is based on mor-tality models implemented by insurance undertakings. Th is means that historical default rates are used for credit risk mea-

surement. Th ose rates are recorded by sta-tistics in diff erent loan categories.6

CreditRisc+ model ignores the following variables: changes in securities prices, chan-ges in default spread which depends on the leverage ratio, volatility of basic form of assets and debt maturity, and move-ments from one rating category to another („migration risk“). Th erefore, it does not include assumptions on causes of default. Th at is why it is considered to be more appropriate for the investors that follow the strategy “buy and wait”. Contrary to KMW approach, CreditRisc+ does not try to connect default risk with the company’s capital structure.

Th e key issue raised in CreditRisc+ mo-del is what the percentage of debtors is in specifi c sector that will default and that will not default observed at whole portfo-lio. Components of the model are: ■ individual profi les of credit exposure; ■ annual default rates by individual in-

dustries or asset categories; ■ volatility of default rates; ■ assumed constant of assessed recove-

ry rates.

Based on specifi c components, there are two phases to achieve the objective. Th e frequency of cases of default and se-verity of losses are established in the fi rst phase. Distribution of losses with respect to default in payment is established in the second phase (illustration 4).

Two key assumptions are included in this model. Firstly, probability of default for loan in the specifi c period is the same as in any other period with the same duration. Secondly, exposure to losses for large number of debtors exists due to default, and proba-bility of default by any individual debtor is

Graph 4 – Comparison of distributions of probabilities for returns on loans and market returns

6 For more detailed presentation of this commercial model see: CreditRisc+, A Credit Risk Management Framework, www.csfb .com CSFB has developed soft ware that enables users to apply CreditRisc+ methodology in Excel sheet. Users have the possibility to insert in Excel sheet statisti-cal data for enormous number of debtors – up to 4000, and use example of portfolio of 25 debtors and default ra-tes and volatility of those rates (added through sample of credit rating).


Graph 3 - Mutual probability of default as a correlation of return on assets

Illustration 4 – Framework for risk measurement using CreditRisc+ approach

Table 7 – Mutual migration probabilities (percentage) with zero correlation for two issuers with ratings BB and A

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jun 2010 | :Bankar

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„kupi i čekaj“. Za razliku od KMV pristu-pa, CreditRisc+ ne pokušava da dovede u vezu rizik neizvršenja obaveza sa struktu-rom kapitala fi rme.

Ključno pitanje koje se postavlja u CreditRisc+ modelu je koji procenat duž-nika u datom sektoru će doći u situaciju da ne izvršava svoje obaveze i da li će doći u situaciju da ne izvršava obaveze posmat-rano na nivou celog portfelja. Ulazne kom-ponente u modelu su: ■ individualni profi li kreditne

izloženosti; ■ stope neizvršenja obaveza po poje-

dinim industrijama ili kategorijama imovine, na godišnjem nivou;

■ kolebljivost stopa neizvršenja obaveza; ■ pretpostavljena konstantnost ocen-

jenih stopa naplate potraživanja (reco-very rates). Na osnovu datih ulaznih komponenti

slede dve faze do postizanja krajnjeg cilja. U prvoj fazi se ustanovljava: prvo, učesta-lost slučajeva neizvršenja obaveza, i drugo, oštrina gubitaka. U drugoj fazi se ustano-vljava distribucija gubitaka pri neizvršenju plaćanja (slika 4).

Dve ključne pretpostavke uključene u model su: prvo, verovatnoća neizvršen-ja obaveza za zajam u datom periodu je ista u bilo kom drugom periodu sa istim trajanjem; drugo, za veliki broj dužnika postoji izloženost gubicima usled neizvr-šenja obaveza, a verovatnoća neizvršenja obaveza od strane bilo kog pojedinačnog dužnika je mala. Uz to broj slučajeva nei-zvršenja obaveza koji se dešava u bilo kom datom periodu je nezavisan od broja slu-čajeva neizvršenja obaveza koji se dešavaju u bilo kom drugom periodu.

Pri date dve ključne pretpostavke smat-ra se da se raspored verovatnoća za broj slučajeva neizvršenja obaveza tokom da-tog perioda može dobro predstaviti sa Poisson-ovim rasporedom:

P(n neizvršenih plaćanja) = ñn e-ñ

za n = 0,1,2,... n!

pri čemu je : ñ = prosečan broj slučajeva neizvršenja obaveza na godišnjem nivou; n = broj slučajeva neizvršenja obaveza na godišnjem nivou je stohastička varijabla sa srednjom vrednošću ñ i standardnom devijacijom √ ñ.

Korisno svojstvo Poisson-ovog rasporeda je to da se može u potpunosti specifi cirati pomoću jednog parametra - ñ, pa ukoliko pretpostavimo vrednost ñ = 3, verovatnoća da u idućoj godini neće nastupiti slučaj ne-izvršenja obaveza („no default“) iznosi:

P(0) = 30 e-3

= 0,05 = 5 % 0!

a verovatnoća da će nastupiti tri slučaja neizvršenja obaveza:

P(3 sliučaja) = 30 e-3

= 0,224 = 22,4 % 3!

Na osnovu uvedene funkcije generisa-nja verovatnoće (probability generating function – PGF) moguće je: prvo, izrazi-ti PGF za gubitke pri neizvršenju obaveza za svaku skupinu dužnika; drugo izvršiti agregiranje u vidu funkcije generisanja verovatnoće koja se odnosi na gubitke na nivou celog portfelja. Primena odgova-rajućeg algoritma omogućava izvođenje distribucije gubitaka na nivou celog por-tfelja iz PGD. Na taj način je obezbeđeno dolaženje do brzog analitičkog rešenje kod izračunavanja ekonomskog kapitala i dru-gih mera rizika. Detaljni opis postupka za izračunavanja potrebnih parametara je dat u prilogu 4.

Glavna prednost CreditRisk+ modela je u tome što ga je lako primeniti jer samim tim što se fokusira na neizvršenje plaćan-ja zahteva relativno mali broj procena i ulaznih komponenti. Metodologija je raspoloživa u spreadsheet formatu koji je lako koristiti. S obzirom da koristi analitički metod, a ne simulaciju, model omoguća-va da se brzo, za nekoliko sekundi obave obračuni i izvede distribucija gubitaka na nivou portfelja.

Na drugoj strani, ograničenje koje ispol-java je u principu isto kao kod KMV pri-stupa: primenjena metodologija pretpo-stavlja da kreditni rizik nije povezan sa nivoom tržišnog rizika. Pored toga igno-riše se tzv. „rizik migracije“. Izloženost za svakog dužnika je fi ksirana i nije osetljiva na moguće buduće promene kvaliteta kod kreditne sposobnosti emitenta hartija od vrednosti ili na promene kamatnih stopa u budućnosti.

7 U međuvremenu Credit Suisse je razvio veći broj analitičkih modela koji mere kreditni rizik. Svojim klijentima nudi CUSP i PortfolioRisk+ model. Kod prvog modela u oceni kreditnog rizika koji je specifi čan za fi rmu uključuju se informacije sa tržišta akcija. Drugi model je u odnosu na CreditRisk+ fl eksibilniji u pogledu distribucije obeležja, pa može da operiše sa širim setom rizika – www.csfb .com


Slika 4. Okvir za merenje rizika kod CreditRisk+ pristupa


11

7 In the meantime, Credit Suisse has developed numerous analytical models that measure credit risk. It also off ers CUSP and PortfolioRisk+ models to its clients. Th e fi rst model included information from equity market in the assessment of credit risk specifi c for the company. Th e latter is more fl exible as compared to CreditRisc+ regarding distribution so it can operate with wider set of risks – www.csfb .com


small. In addition, number of cases of de-fault that happens in any specifi c period is independent from the number of cases of default that happens in any other period.

With respect to two key assumptions, it is considered that distribution of pro-babilities for a number of cases of default during specifi ed period may be presented with Poisson distribution:

P(n outstanding payments) = ñn e-ñ

za n = 0,1,2,... n!

whereas: ñ = average number of cases of default at annual level; n = number of ca-ses of default at annual level is stochastic variable with mean value ñ and standard deviation √ ñ.

Poisson distribution can be completely specifi ed using one indicator – ñ. If we as-sume that the value ñ is 3, the probability that no defaults will occur in the following year is the following:

P(0) = 30 e-3

= 0,05 = 5 % 0!

And probability that there will be three cases of defaults:

P(3 sliučaja) = 30 e-3

= 0,224 = 22,4 % 3!

Based on introduced function of probabili-ty generating function (PGF), it is possible to show PGF for losses on defaults for each group of debtors and aggregate them as pro-bability generating function at portfolio le-vel. Th e application of appropriate algorithm enables calculation of the loss distribution at entire level from PGD. In that respect, prompt analytical solution is provided in the calculation of economic capital and other risk measures. Detailed description of the procedure for calculation of indicators ne-eded is given in Attachment 4.

CreditRisc+ model is easy to apply since it focuses on defaults, which requires re-latively small number of assessments and input components. Th e methodology is available in the spreadsheet format which can be easily used. Since this model uses analytical method and not simulation, it enables calculations and loss distribution at portfolio level for several seconds.7 On the other hand, limitations of this model are basically the same as KMW approach: the methodology applied assumes that credit risk is not connected with the market risk. Besides, it ignores so called migration risk. Th e exposure for each debtor is fi xed, and it is not sensitive to possible future changes in quality of credit capacity of the issuer of securities or to future interest rate changes.

jun 2010 | :Bankar

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POSLOVANJE U KRIZI

ubrZajTe svoja PoTraživanja i dložiTe vaša dugovanja Sa uobičajenih 10 dana za naplatu pređite na plaćanje po pre-uzetoj/im robi/uslugama. Na ovaj način izbjegavate davanje beskamatnog kredita Vašim klijentima. Ne nudite popust za promptno plaćanje. Mnogi uzimaju ovaj popust, ali ipak kasne sa plaćanjem. Takođe, trudite se da smanjite greške prilikom fakturisanja robe. Praksa je pokazala da su pogreš-ne fakture najčešći uzrok kašnjenja sa plaćanjem. Koristite faks ili e-mail za slanje faktura, jer skraćuje vrijeme do upla-te u poređenju sa slanjem faktura poštom. Da, neophodno je znanje rada na računaru! Pregovarajte sa Vašim dobav- ljačima o produženju roka za plaćanje, nižim cijenama i uki-danju raznih tarifa. Ono što Vi sa svojim klijentima radite oko rokova plaćanja uradite samo suprotno sa Vašim doba-vljačima. Vještina pregovaranja je od velike važnosti. Nađite obostrano prihvatljivo rješenje uz obavezivanje na dugoročnu saradnju. Uvijek budite tačni sa plaćanjem - kad tad morate platiti, a uz to idu i penali, kamate za kašnjenje. Ako kasnite na taj način pozajmljujete od dobavljača, a oni nisu u ban-karskom poslu. To je i razlog zašto i naplaćuju veće penale.

zaliHeZalihe su skupe! Mogu da budu oštećene, prljave, izgubljene i zastarjele. Morate minimizirati svoje zalihe - mora-te ih konvertovati u keš. Razmislite o užem spektru proi-zvoda koje prodajete (nisu svi jednako profitabilni) kao i o boljem tajmingu prilikom narudžbe i isporuke. Japanci već dugi niz godina koriste JIT (just in time) sistem za op-timizaciju zaliha. Koliko ovo zapravo sve može biti efikas-no? Ako vas skladište košta po 5€/m² godišnje, uz profitnu maržu od recimo 5%, to znači da vas svaki m² košta 100€ prodaje na godišnjem nivou. Smanjenje skladišnog prosto-ra za 100m² je ekvivalentno prodaji od 10.000€. Pored ušte-de za zakup, tu je i smanjenje vjerovatnoće da roba bude oš-tećena ili zastarjela. Razmislite o davanju u podzakup viš-ka prostora. Napominjem, sve ovo je izvodljivo uz nepro-mijenjeni nivo prodaje.

Sve me ovo dovodi do banaka čija je uloga veoma značaj-na u ekonomskom sistemu, a koje su u neprestanoj interak-ciji sa subjektima kao što su preduzeća. Prvo o bankama kao provajderima kapitala neophodnog za rast preduzeća.

Promjene zahtijevaju promjene

Ne morate da imate doktorske studije da biste poboljšali finansijski rezultat svoje kompanije u vrijeme krize. Ekonomska kriza je samo dio ekonomskog ciklusa i predstavlja kraj faze rasta. Karakteriše je pad kupovne moći, povjerenja potrošača, proizvodnje i rezultatski smanjene zaposlenosti. Kada se sve ovo desi za firme postaje izuzetno teško da posluju sa profitom koji su imali za vrijeme ekonomske ekspanzije. Većina menadžera su kao nojevi - stave glavu u pijesak i čekaju da opasnost prođe. Da, kriza će proći, samo što neki neće biti tu kao privredni subjekti da to i vide, tj. ukoliko nešto ne preduzmu, njihova preduzeća su osuđena na propast. Promjene zahtijevaju promjene! U vrijeme ekonomske krize primarni cilj je opstanak firme i on podrazumijeva upravljanje troškovima. Sekundarni cilj je rast poslovanja firme uprkos ekonomskoj krizi. Naredni dio će, nadam se, biti koristan kako velikim firmama, tako i onim koje su tek na početku u nalaženju načina da minimizuju svoje troškove. Smanjenjem troškova, povećanjem efikasnosti i produktivnosti, uvećanjem broja klijenata i odgovornim upravljanjem kešom možete znatno ublažiti efekte ekonomske krize. Dobra komunikacija, kontrola i pregovaračke sposobnosti su ključ uspjeha. Prvi korak ka uspjehu je upravljanje Vašim bilansom stanja Igor PerišićŠef odjeljenja deviznih rezervi, Centralna banka Crne Gore


BUSINESS IN CRISIS

The Changes require ChangesYou do not need to have PhD to improve the financial result of your company at the time of crisis. The economic crisis is only a part of the economic cycle and represents the end of the growth phase. It is characterized by the decline in purchasing power, consumer confidence, production and reduced employment. When this happens, it is very difficult for the company to make profit, which they had during the economic expansion. Most managers are like ostriches – they put their head in the sand and wait for the danger to pass. Yes, the crisis will pass, but some of them will not be there as economic entities to see this, i.e. if they do not do something their companies are doomed to failure. The changes require changes.

At a time of economic crisis, the primary goal is survival of the company and it involves cost managing. The secondary objective is growth of company‘s activities, despite the economic crisis. The following text will, hopefully, be useful to large companies and those that are just at the beginning to find ways to minimize their costs. You can substantially mitigate the effects of economic crisis by reducing costs, increasing efficiency and productivity, increasing the number of clients and responsible cash management. The key to success are good communication, control and negotiation skills. The first step to success is to manage your balance sheet Igor PerišićCBM Head of FX Reserves Risk Management

sPeed uP Your reCeivables and PosTPone Your debTs With the usual 10 days for the collection, move to payment by taken goods/services. This prevents you from granting non interest-bearing loans to your clients. Do not offer dis-counts for prompt payment. Many take this discount, but still default. Also try to reduce errors in invoicing of goods. Practice has shown that false invoices were the most com-mon cause of defaults. Use fax or e-mail to send invoices for payment to reduce the time compared to sending an in-voice by mail. Yes, you need computer skills. Negotiate with your suppliers to extend the deadline for payment, lower prices and abolition of various tariffs. What you are doing with your clients about terms of payment, do just the op-posite with your suppliers. Negotiating skills are important. Find a mutually acceptable solution for long-term coope-ration. Always be punctual with payment – sooner or later you will have to pay, along with penalties and interest for the default. If you default, then you borrow from the sup-plier, and they are not in the banking business. That‘s the reason why they charge higher penalties.

invenToriesInventories are expensive. They may be damaged, dirty, lost and outdated. You have to minimize your inventories - you must convert them into cash. Think about the narrow ran-ge of products to sell (not all as profitable) as well as abo-ut better timing in orders and deliveries. For many years Japanese have been using JIT (Just in Time) system to op-timize inventories. How this all might be really effective? If the value of your warehouse amounts to EUR 5/m² per year, with a profit margin of about 5%, it means that each m² will amount to EUR 100 of the annual sale. Reduction in the storage space by 100m² is equivalent to sales of EUR 10,000. In addition to the cost savings for the lease, there is a reduction of probability that the goods will be damaged or outdated. Think about subleasing the extra space. Please note that this is feasible with the unchanged level of sales.

All of this leads to the banks which role is very impor-tant in the economic system, and which are constantly in-teracting with companies being providers of capital neces-sary for companies’ growth.

jun 2010 | :Bankar

30

POSLOVANJE U KRIZI

ZajmodavCi (banke) Prikupljanje kamate je divno, ali plaćanje iste i nije toli-ko. Pregovaranje je ključ u svim oblastima smanjenja troš-kova pa ni banke nisu izuzetak od pravila. Pregovarajte sa bankama oko nivoa kamata, iznosa kredita, načina otplate, grejs perioda, rokova dospijeća, vrsta kolatera-la, obezbjeđenja novih kreditnih linija. Postoji optima-lan nivo zaduženosti svake firme. Prikupljanje akcijskog kapitala je skuplji vid finansiranja od kredita. Da li znate koji je Vaš optimalan nivo zaduženosti? Ako ste prezad-uženi ubijedite banku da je u njenom najboljem intere-su da reprogramira dug, prezentujući joj plan umanjen-ja troškova firme, kao i šta ste sve i u kojoj mjeri postigli implementacijom gore navedenih mjera iz Vašeg plana. Objasnite im da bez uzajamne saradnje nećete moći da preživite krizu, a samim tim da ni oni neće ostvariti svo-ja potraživanja u cjelosti.

Još jedan vid smanjenja troškova je i hedging. Svaka fir-ma je pogođena fluktuacijama cijena. Cijene roba rastu i padaju, strane valute fluktuiraju, cijene akcija se mijenja-ju, a ukoliko ne upravljate sa ovim pojavama posljedice po Vaš profit mogu biti devastirajuće. Hedging podrazumi-jeva ulaganje u finansijske instrumente čija se vrijednost kreće suprotno od fluktuacije onoga čime želite da upravljate. Ovo se odnosi na finansijske derivate i to prvenstve-no na opcije, forward i futures ugovore. Pitate se, zar hed-ging nije samo za velike institucije? Više nije. U globalnoj ekonomiji sve firme su pogođene promjenama kamatnih stopa, cijenom nafte, inflacijom itd. Loša strana je što Vam ipak za ovo treba stručna pomoć i to nas dovodi ponovo do banaka. Identifikujte top 10 troškova Vaše firme i raz-mislite kako bi se njihovo fluktuiranje odrazilo na poslo-vanje. Jednostavan hedging možete da odradite sa doba-vljačima ugovaranjem npr. fiksne cijene za buduće ispo-ruke. Komplikovaniji vidovi hedginga zahtijevaju eksper-tizu koju banke ili brokeri mogu da pruže. Kod nas teško možete da sprovedete ovaj komplikovaniji vid, jer trenut-no naše banke imaju limitiran spektar usluga koje pruža-ju. Međutim, rješenje može biti uspostavljanje odnosa sa stranom bankom ili brokerom. Koliko žestok uticaj može imati propuštanje prilike za hedging pokazuju i slučaje-vi nekih naših velikih kompanija prije privatizacije kada se niko od menadžmenta nije sjetio (čitaj - nije znao) da uradi ovaj vid smanjenja troškova. Gubici na kursu EUR/USD su se mjerili stotinama hiljada eura.

renTiranje poslovnoG prosTora Razgovarajte sa zakupodavcem poslovnog prostora. Objasnite mu situaciju da prodaja bilježi trend pada i da Vaša kirija predstavlja sve veći teret za poslovanje firme. Upotrebite činjenicu da inflacija više nepredstavlja prob-lem i da skoro sve cijene bilježe pad (deflacija). Kako pada ekonomska aktivnost pada i tražnja za iznajmljivanjem poslovnih prostora i da ako izgubi Vas neće tako lako naći drugog zakupca. Uspješna saradnja se ne zasniva samo na djeljenju benefita ekspanzije već i na djeljenju efeka-ta ekonomskog pada.

Kad smo već kod poslovnog prostora potrebno je osvr-nuti se i na režijske troškove. Struja, voda, odvoz otpada itd. Ovi troškovi se mogu značajno minimizovati, a pogo-tovu struja i voda. Provjerite Vaše račune za struju. Ako

Vam je loš kvalitet struje ili neuredno snadbijevanje traži-te ustupke u cijeni. Ipak vi plaćate veću cijenu po jedinici kvaliteta od ostalih kod kojih je kvalitet dobar, a snadbije-vanje uredno. Razmislite o kupovini uređaja A kategorije potrošnje koji donose uštedu na dugi rok. Da li ste znali da povećanje temperature na klima uređaju za jedan ste-pen ljeti, odnosno spuštanje za jedan stepen zimi dono-si uštedu od 3% na računu za struju. Eloksirana (termo prekid) i PVC bravarija ili stavljanje jeftinih dihtung traka može da uštedi i do 10% od uobičajenog računa za struju. Nevjerovatno koliko ima prostora za smanjenje troškova!

Pomoć eksPeraTaSvaka veća kompanija bi trebala da ima u okviru borda di-rektora poseban komitet koji je zadužen za nominacije za funkciju i predloge za traženje ekspertiza van kompanije. Nemoguće je da jedna firma ma koliko velika raspolaže kadrovima svih profila. Zato se imenuju spoljni saradnici: ovlašćene računovođe, advokati, inženjeri, savjetnici itd. Oni, svako u svom domenu, posjeduju neophodna znanja i savjete koji su Vam potrebni, pogotovu ako iza njih sto-je protekle ekonomske krize. Razmislite koje Vam znanje, vrijeme i novac trebaju da bi ste sami razvili ili ocjeni-li neku strategiju, ekonomski model, izvodljivost projekta. Ušteda vremena i novca su nekada očigledni.

Sve gore navedeno se odnosi na aktivno upravljan-je u vrijeme ekonomske krize. Ove krize nepredstavlja-ju samo predstojeći težak period već i šansu koja Vam se ukazuje. Ovo je prilika da iz svega ovoga izađete bez „viš-ka kilograma“ - neprofitabilnih segmenata Vašeg poslovanja. Kraj ovog dijela ekonomskog ciklusa će te dočekati u mnogo boljoj formi od konkurenata, a ujedno imati jaku odskočnu dasku da krenete naprijed kad oporavak zaživi.

HALO - IZVINJENJE I POKLONIOko nove godine naručio sam robu iz US pre-ko Amazon.com. Sve je stiglo uredno osim artikla, koji je bio pogrešne boje i oštećen. Artikal sam vratio za US nakon čega je usli-jedilo čekanje od mjesec. Revoltiran, napisao sam lošu kritiku za tu firmu na Amazon.co-m-u. Nepunih 20 minuta poslije toga sam do-bio poziv lično od vlasnika, sa izvinjenjima uz punu refundaciju troškova i na kraju ek-spresno poslat novi artikal sa malim pokloni-ma. Prije neki dan sam ponovo naručio neke stvari od njih i preporučio ih svojim prijatel-jima. Ovog puta sve je bilo bez greške. Ovako se gradi dugoročno kvalitetan odnos sa klijen-tima, koji na kraju rezultira generisanjem do-datnog prihoda. Znam da ovo zvuči nevjero-vatno, pogotovo u našim uslovima, kada ste jednostavno srećni kad dobijete svoj novac na-zad, a ne „ne daj bože ikome“ telefonski poziv sa izvinjenjem. Da li je možda potrebno još nešto reći?


BUSINESS IN CRISIS

lenders (banks)The collection of interest is great, but paying the same is not that much. Negotiation is the key in all areas of cost reduc-tion and banks are no exception to the rule. Negotiate with banks about the level of interest, the loan amount, and me-ans of repayment, grace periods, deadlines, maturity, and type of collateral, granting of new credit lines. There is an optimal level of debt of each company. The collection of the share capital is more expensive form of financing than the loan. Do you know what your optimal leverage is? If you are overindebted, persuade the bank that it is in her best interest to reschedule debt. You can also present your cost reduction plan and what and to what extent you have achieved implementing measures from your plan. Explain to the bank that without mutual cooperation you will not be able to survive the crisis, and therefore, they will not re-alize their claims in full.

Another aspect of cost reduction is hedging. Every com-pany is affected by fluctuations in prices. Commodity pri-ces rise and fall, currencies fluctuate, share prices are chan-ging, and if you do not manage these phenomena, effects on your profit can be devastating. Hedging means inves-ting in financial instruments which value moves contra-ry to the fluctuations of the component that you want to manage. This applies to financial derivatives and primari-ly to options, forward and futures contracts. Another qu-estion raised is whether hedging applies only to large insti-tutions. Not anymore. In the global economy, all compa-nies are affected, for example, by changes in interest rates, oil prices, and inflation. The bad side is that you still need expertise and this brings us back to the banks. Identify the top 10 costs of your company and consider how their fluc-tuations would reflect on business. You can do simple hed-ging with suppliers for example, on fixed prices for future deliveries. More complicated forms of hedging require ex-pertise that banks or brokers can offer. In our country you can not implement this complicated aspect, due to limited range of services our banks provide. However, the solution may be establishment of relationships with foreign bank or broker. We can see the severe consequences of lack of hed-ging opportunities in cases of some of our large companies that occurred before privatization when no manager thou-ght (read - he did not know) about doing this type of cost reduction. Losses on exchange rate EUR / USD were mea-sured in hundreds of thousands of euros.

business premises leasinGTalk with the lessor of the business premises. Explain that the sale is recording the declining trend and that your rent is an increasing burden for your business. Use the fact that inflation is no longer a problem and that almost all prices recorded a decline (deflation). A decreasing trend in eco-nomic activity influences the decrease in demand for busi-ness premises leasing. If lessor looses you as a client, he will not easily find another tenant. Successful cooperation is not based only on sharing the benefits of expansion but also on sharing the effects of economic decline.

With respect to this topic, it is necessary to take a look at overheads, like electricity, water, waste removal. These costs can be significantly minimized, especially electricity and water. Check your electricity bills. If you have poor qu-

ality and irregular supply of electricity, ask for concessions in price. Still, you pay the higher price per unit of quality than others which have good quality of this service as well as the orderly supply. Think about buying a consumer de-vice of category “A”, which brings savings in long run. Did you know that an increase in temperature on the air con-dition device to one degree during the summer, or lowe-ring one degree in winter brings savings of 3% in electrici-ty bills? PVC (thermal break) doors and windows or cheap gasket seals can save up to 10% of usual electricity bill. It is unbelievable what you can do to reduce costs.

exPerTs‘ assisTanCeEvery large company should have a special committee within its board of directors responsible for election of a certain expert and proposals for outsourcing. It is impos-sible that a company has a staff of all professions regard-less its size. Therefore, the some of the functions are out-sourced such as certified accountants, lawyers, engineers, advisors are. All of them possess knowledge and advices that you need, especially if they worked even in the pre-vious economic crisis. Think of the knowledge, time and money you need to develop or assess a strategy, economic model, the feasibility of the project. Time and money sa-ving is sometimes so obvious.

All of the abovementioned applies to active management at the time of economic crisis. This crisis does not represent only the upcoming difficult period, but your opportunity as well to exit this crisis without the „excessive weight“ - non-profitable segments of your business activities. You will be better prepared than competitors for the end of this part of the economic cycle, and you will have a strong springbo-ard to go forward when it comes to recovery.

HALO - APOLOGIES AND GIFTS I ordered goods from the United States of America (USA) through Amazon.com sometime close to New Year. Everything came as ordered, except one item in wrong color and damaged. I returned this item to USA, and waited for a month for my goods. Revolted, I wrote a bad re-view for the company to Amazon.com. Less than 20 minutes later, I got a call from the owner him-self, with apologies and the full refund of costs. In the end, the new item was expressly sent with small gifts. The other day, I ordered again some things from them and recommended them to my friends. This time everything was flawless. This is the way to build long-term quality relationship with customers, which ultimately results in ge-nerating additional income. I know this case so-unds unbelievable, particularly nowadays, when you are just happy even if you get your money back, and not to mention a phone call with an apology. Do I need anything else to say?

jun 2010 | :Bankar

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CRNOGORSKA EKONOMSKA KRIZA

neke karakTerisTike Crnogorske ekonomijeOsnovne karakteristike nacionalne ekonomije u uslovima nestanka državne zajednice su da privrednu strukturu čini: energetsko-metalurški kompleks sa relativno razuđenim pre-rađivačkim kapacitetima u drvopreradi, tekstilnoj industriji, poljoprivredno-prerađivačkoj industriji, industriji duvana, raspoloživim turističkim kapacitetima, pomorskoj privre-di, metalopreradi, i dr. Raspoloživi kapaciteti i ostvarivana proizvodnja ili obim usluga pojedinih privrednih subjekata dostizali su zavidne rezultate na ex-Yu prostoru.

Naravno, nije sporan ideološki pristup da vlasničkom trans-formacijom novi vlasnici racionalnije i efikasnije organizuju proizvodnju roba i usluga. Međutim, u procesu privatizaci-je sistemski su neadekvatno uređeni odnosi koji preferiraju one kupce koji su na dan sklapanja ugovora, ponudili veća investiciona ulaganja u budućem periodu uz manju ekvi-valentnu vrijednost pri neposrednoj kupovini privrednog subjekta, pri čemu nije utvrđena zakonska obaveza, kao ni razrađeni kriterijumi i dinamika ulaganja “obećanih” ugo-vorenih sredstava, niti način praćenja tog ulaganja.

Naravno, o vrijednosti ekvivalenta “ugovorenih” investi-cionih obaveza i realno uloženih sredstava nema nikakvog uvida ni nadzora. Takvi aranžmani, i ako su u datom tre-nutku zbog priliva određenih sredstava doprinijeli kratko-ročnoj euforiji stvaranja privida o dobro urađenoj svojinskoj transformaciji, vremenskim protokom, stvari su svima po-stale jasnije. U suštini takvi aranžmani po osnovu izvršene privatizacije nanijeli su dvostruku štetu. Prvo, sam čin pri-vatizacije obavljen je tako da su vrijednosti realnog kapita-la derogirane obećanjima, a drugo ta obećanja o takozva-noj ugovorom preuzetoj dokapitalizaciji nikada nijesu rea-lizovana u cjelini, a često puta ni dijelom.

Kao epilog takvih aktivnosti svojinske transformacije na-cionalna ekonomija trpi značajne negativne posledice koje imaju multiplikacioni negativni efekat. Naime, prisutan je sve veći broj privatizovanih pravnih subjekata, koji sada i ne rade, radnici su ostali bez zarada i postali nezbrinuta so-cijalna kategorija, budžetski prihodi su sve tanji, a obaveze pravnih lica koja rade, u smislu poreskih zahvatanja i kre-ditnih obaveza, sve su veće.

Globalna ekonomska kriza samo dodatno usložava ukup-na ekonomska kretanja. Očigledno je, da sve manji broj privrednih subjekata ne može finansirati sve veće obaveze rastućoj sistemskoj nadgradnji. Primjera ovim konstataci-jama imamo u izobilju.

Krajem prošle 2009. godine su, po skraćenoj proceduri, doneseni zakoni kojim su pravna lica u obavezi da plaća-ju poreska izdvajanja na vrijednost toplog obroka i prevo-za, kao da su ostvarena primanja po tom osnovu, zarade u klasičnom smislu, koje čine penzijski osnov poreskog ob-veznika. Ova poreska izdvajanja za naknade po osnovu rada, koje za radnike sa najnižim primanjima čine značajan dio primanja (skoro trećinu), za poslodavce su dodatni namet koji nije ništa drugo do “krizni” porez uveden s namjerom da se ostvari dodatni budžetski prihod. Povećanje obave-za poreskih izdvajanja po tom osnovu doprinijelo je sman-jenju nominalnih zarada za desetak procenata, što u opštim uslovima recesije i nije zanemarljivo, a u suštini je samo do-datno ugrozilo životni standard, posebno najsiromašnijem dijelu uposlenih sa najnižim primanjima, pri čemu je samo djelimično ostvarena budžetska namjera o uvećanju priho-da. Po prirodi stvari, krizna faza privednog stanja bilo koje nacionalne ekonomije se ne prevazilazi povećavanjem po-reskog zahvatanja, već njegovim smanjenjem ili ukoliko se

uzroci, posljedice – i rješenja (?)

Sveukupne promjene koje su nastale u zadnjim decenijama privrednog i društvenog razvoja Crne Gore umnogome su izmijenile obim, dinamiku razvoja i strukturu ekonomske moći. Polazeći od prepoznatljive vodilje ljudskog bića, da se uvijek može više i bolje i da tome treba težiti, realno je bilo očekivati da će nacionalna ekonomija doživjeti progres i po tom osnovu, adekvatan razvoj, prije svega, privrednog pa samim tim i društvenog sistema u cjelini. Kao sublimat takvih očekivanja, rast životnog standarda trebao je imati uzlaznu putanju. Istina, nijesmo oskudijevali u zvaničnim najavama ubrzanog privrednog razvoja, kroz instrumente tekuće ekonomske politike, ali nažalost efekti njene implementacije rigorozno je demantuju. Pored subjektivnih slabosti prisutne su i objektivne poteškoće uslovljene globalnom ekonomskom krizom

Prof. dr Miro Blečić Univerzitet Mediteran Mr. Milena Žižić rukovodilac u službi upšravljanja sredstvima, First Financial Bank


MONTENEGRIN ECONOMIC CRISIS

some of The CharaCTerisTiCs of The monTenegrin eConomYBasic characteristics of the national economy, following the dismantling of the state union, are that the economic struc-ture consists of the following: energy and metal industry complex with relatively dispersed processing capacities in the wood processing, textile, agricultural and tobacco in-dustry, available tourism capacities, maritime industry, me-tal processing, etc. Available capacities and production or the volume of services of some companies have achieved remarkable results in the ex Yugoslavian region.

This is without a doubt also due to the change of the ow-nership structure, where the new owners are organizing the production of goods and delivery of services in a more rational and efficient manner. However, during the priva-tization process there was an inadequate regulation of re-lations that were giving priority to the buyers that have of-fered bigger investments in the future period on the day of the signing of the agreement and smaller equivalent value for the direct acquisition of the company. Additionally, le-gal obligations have not been determined, nor the criteria and dynamics of investments of the “promised” funds and the manner of monitoring of these investments.

Naturally, there was no insight or monitoring of the va-lue of equivalent “contracted” investment obligations and actual invested funds. Such arrangements, although cre-ating the short lasting euphoria and the illusion of good ownership transformation, due to the incoming of certain funds, have proven to be quite different with the passing of time. Essentially, these privatization processes have cause dual damage. First, the act of privatization was done in a way that has derogated the value of real capital with all the

promises, and secondly – promises of so called contractual additional capitalization have never been entirely realized, and very often have not been realized at all.

As the epilogue of such ownership transformation ac-tivities, national economy is suffering significant negative consequences, which have multiplicative negative effects. Namely, there is an increasing number of privatized com-panies that are still closed, workers remained without sala-ries and became a socially vulnerable category, budget reve-nues are decreasing, while the obligations of operating legal entities related to taxes and loans are increasing.

A global economic crisis is making total economic mo-vement additionally complex. It is obvious that less and less companies can finance growing obligations of the in-creased system development. Examples of these statements are abundant.

At the end of 2009, laws have been introduced accor-ding to the shortened procedure, which made legal enti-ties obliged to pay taxes on the value of meal allowances and transportation allowances, as if the revenue on the-se were realized in the classical sense, representing a ba-sis for the pension of the taxpayer. These taxes paid on al-lowances, which make a significant portion of income of the workers with lowest salaries (almost one third), are an additional burden for employers and are nothing else but a “crisis” tax introduced with the intention to realize additi-onal budget revenue. Increase of tax liabilities has contri-buted to the decrease of nominal income by ten percents, which is not neglectable in the general recession circum-stances and which has additionally jeopardized standard of living, especially of the poorest part of employees, with the lowest salaries, and it has only partially contributed to

Causes, consequences and solutions (?)General changes during the past decades of economic and social development of Montenegro have significantly altered the volume and dynamic of development and the structure of economic power. Since it is a well known fact that human beings always strive for more, it was realistic to expect that the national economy and society in general will achieve progress and development. As a consequence, a rise of the living standard was expected. There were many official announcements of the accelerated economic development, through the instruments of the current economic policy. Unfortunately, effects of its implementation didn’t fulfill these expectations. In addition to subjective weaknesses, there are also objective problems caused by the global economic crisis

Prof. Miro Blečić PhD University Mediterranean Mr. Milena Žižić Head of Tresury Department, First Financial Bank

jun 2010 | :Bankar

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oni ne smanjuju, ustanovljavaju se drugi benefiti unificira-no za sve privredne subjekte ili se pristupa specifičnim se-lektivnim mjerama podsticaja.

Međutim, to je samo početni pojavni oblik naglašene re-cesije našeg ekonomskog sistema. Ono što još nije izašlo na vidjelo, jeste činjenica da su značajna sredstva od privati-zacije privrednih subjekata najvećim dijelom završila u lič-noj potrošnji, kupujući socijalni mir. Istina, od tih sredsta-va sagrađeno je, ili sanirano nešto saobraćajne infrastruk-ture i ništa više, pri čemu su korišćena i kreditna sredstva (Tunel “Sozina”, treća traka na dijelu magistralnih puteva, Aerodrumska zgrada, most “Milenijum”, tunel “Vrmac”...).

Kakva je putna infrastruktura najbolje govori zvanični podatak AMSCG od 12.02.2010. godine, gdje se zbog na-glašenih odrona, upozorava na činjenicu otežanog odvi-janja saobraćaja, naizmjenično jednom trakom na rela-cijama magistralnih pravaca: Podgorica – Nikšić, Berane – Rožaje, Plužine – Šćepan Polje, Cetinje – Budva, Budva – Tivat, Risan – Nikšić... Istina, padavine u zimskom peri-odu su uobičajena pojava izazivanja odrona, ali karakteris-tike i kvalitet ovih magistralnih putnih pravaca i njihovo održavanje najbolje govori sa kakvom putnom infrastruk-turom raspolažemo i kakve uslove nudimo turističkim po-sjetiocima. O stanju regionalne putne mreže i njenom odr-žavanju nije potrebno govoriti jer je ona na znatno nižem nivou održavanja od magistralnih pravaca.

Isto tako, o uslovima eksploatacije putne privrede do-voljno govori podatak da u Crnoj Gori na godišnjem ni-vou u saobraćajnim nesrećama izgubi živote oko 150 do 180 ljudi, sa desetak puta većim brojem teško povrijeđenih, što nas svrstava u red zemalja sa najvećim procentom sa-obraćajnog rizika.

Izvršena investiciona ulaganja na postojećim magistral-nim pravcima vršena su na saniranju nekih oštrih kri-vina i uspona, na način gradnje treće trake i potpornih zidova, saniranju tunela, ulaznih raskršća u gradska na-selja i sl. što ne dostiže ni jednu desetinu dužine posto-jećih magistralnih pravaca. Naša realnost je, da kao na-cionalna ekonomija koja preferira turističku privredu kao stratešku granu, nemamo nijedan putni pravac koji povezuje dvije gradske sredine sa tri saobraćajne trake, a da ne govorimo o autoputnim pravcima, kao najsavre-menijim oblicima povezivanja, kakvim raspolažu sve zemlje u okruženju.

Energetski kapaciteti nijesu uvećavani gradnjom novih objekata od vremene uvođenja termoelektrane “Pljevlja” u proizvodnju, prije više od 30 godina. U ovom značajnom segmentu ekonomije, odnosno raspoloživom privrednom potencijalu vršeni su samo najnužniji remonti, odnosno sa-nacije koje su uslovljavane “raspadima” sistema ili težim kva-rovima na trafo-prenosnim postrojenjima. Evidentni prob-lemi u radu ovog sistema eksponiraju se u naglašenom gu-bitku energije na prenosnoj mreži (oko 23%), što je znat-no iznad ustanovljenog standarda, sa jedne, i visokog dije-la nenaplaćenih i po tom osnovu otpisanih potraživanja sa druge strane. Ove karakteristike kao subjektivne slabosti, koje su nerijetko podržavane i neadekvatnom cjenovnom politikom kroz koju se, s vremena na vrijeme, u zavisnos-ti od ekonomskih prilika, dijelom vodila socijalna politika, najviše su doprinijele stagnaciji elektro-energetskog siste-ma Crne Gore.

Januarski računi za 2010. godinu, za potrošnju električ-ne energije dostavljeni od EPCG “ukalkulisali” su lojalnim potrošačima, pored svoje potrošnje i ustanovljene cijene, koja je pod pritiskom javnog mjenja neznatno smanjena, i proporcionalan dio vrijednosti po osnovu izgubljene ener-gije, naravno koju “lojalni” potrošači nijesu utrošili, znatno iznad standarda u toj oblasti. Tako, praktično EPCG inau-guriše novu ekonomsku i pravnu doktrinu, da platite ono što nijeste potrošili umjesto potrošača koji su to “utajili” ili narodski rečeno ukrali. Taj “virus”, koji je izmakao kontroli EPCG pa i pravnom poretku nacionalne ekonomije, stvo-ren je upravo u samom kolektivu na način što uposlenima nije fakturisana, odnosno naplaćivana potrošnja električne energije dugi niz godina.

Ako ovakvom postojećem stanju dodamo činjenicu da je EPCG godinama unazad kontinuirano uvozila na go-dišnjem nivou od 30 do 50 miliona eura električne energi-je, onada se s pravom postavlja pitanje ekonomske oprav-danosti daljeg pasivnog odnosa prema gradnji novih ener-getskih postrojenja. Nesporno je, da je aktivnosti, bar ver-balnih, bilo dosta. Prvo se postavilo pitanje ekonomske va-lorizacije gradnje hidroelektrane na Komarnici, pa na Tari, zatim Morači i Tari, prevođenjem dijela riječnog toka Tare, pa potom, ponovo sistem na Morači ...

Već smo istakli da sredstva koja su ostvarena procesom privatizacije nijesu usmjeravana za reinvestiranje, odnos-no izgradnju novih privrednih i infrastrukturnih kapaci-teta, već najčešće u novu ličnu i zajedničku potrošnju kroz isplate zaostalih primanja uposlenima, gradnju sportskih centara i za sanaciju “urgentnih zahtjeva” privrednih ko-lektiva, bilo javnih ili privatizovanih, pa se efekti takvih in-terventnih mjera obično dugoročno vraćaju negativno, kao bumerang po ukupan privredni razvoj. Sa sigurnošću mo-žemo konstatovati da nijedan privredni ili infrastrukturni kapacitet značajnijeg obima nije izfinansiran, pa ni pušten u rad po osnovu prihodovanih sredstava ostvarenih proce-som svojinske transformacije, iako je najava bilo. Slikovit primjer odrađen je sa privatizacijom AD “Jugopetrol” Kotor, gdje je prodajom ostvareno 25 miliona DEM i prethodno najavljeno da će sredstva biti investirana u rekonstrukciju i elektrifikaciju željezničke pruge Podgorica – Nikšić. Od tada je prošlo više od deset godina, sredstva su davno po-trošena, a od obznanjene investicije tog infrastrukturnog pravca nema ni pomena .

raZvojne mogućnosTi Ako se pođe od činjenice da je krajnji strateški proizvod samo onaj koji ima atribut energije, bilo da se radi o ener-giji namijenjenoj tehničkim ili biološkim sistemima, onda se neminovno nameće potreba adekvatnog sagledavan-ja realne osnove raspoloživih mogućnosti organizovanja sopstvene proizvodnje nacionalne ekonomije u tom smislu.

Crna Gora odista raspolaže sa zavidnim hidroener-getskim neiskorišćenim potencijalima, čija je snaga po-tencijalno desetak puta veća od onih privedenih namje-ni. Naravno, parametar treba prihvatiti relativno iz jed-nostavnog razloga, što već postoje tehničke mogućnosti, savremenijih oblika iskorišćavanja od postojećih, ponov-nog iskorišćavanja istog vodotoka koji je priveden nam-jeni, nizvodno, sa dodatnim kaskadama uvažavajući kon-figuracije slivova vodotoka.



the increasing of budget revenue. It is obvious that the cri-sis of any national economy cannot be eliminated by in-creasing of taxes, but their decreasing, or if taxes are not decreased, other benefits are introduced for all companies or specific selective incentive measures are implemented.

However, this is just an initial form of major recession of our economic system. What is still not apparent is the fact that the significant funds from the privatization of compa-nies have ended in personal consumption, in order to en-sure social tranquility. It is also true that some of the funds were used to construct or reconstruct part of the transport infrastructure and nothing else, where credit funds have also been used for these purposes (tunnel “Sozina”, third lane on some roads, airport building, “Milenijum” bridge, tunnel “Vrmac” etc.).

The state of the infrastructure is best illustrated with the official AMSCG from February 12, 2010, when due to the increased slides, it warned about traffic problems and the use of just one lane alternately on the highways: Podgorica – Nikšić, Berane – Rožaje, Plužine – Šćepan Polje, Cetinje – Budva, Budva – Tivat, Risan – Nikšić. It is true that pre-cipitations that are causing slides in the winter period are frequent; however, characteristics and quality of these ro-ads and their maintenance illustrate the state of the infras-tructure that we offer to our tourists. Regional road network and its maintenance should not be discussed since it is on a significantly lower level of maintenance than the main roads.

Also, condition of the transport industry is best illustra-ted with the fact that around 150 to 180 people per year are killed and ten times more people are seriously injured in the road accidents, which is placing Montenegro among the countries with the highest percentage of the transport risk.

Investments in the existing highways have been made for the reconstruction of some sharp curves and slopes, by con-structing the third lane and supporting walls, reconstruc-tion of tunnels, entry crossroads of the towns, etc., which is less than one tenth of the existing main roads. The reality is that our national economy that gives priority to the tou-rist industry as a strategic industry, doesn’t have any three lane roads that connect two towns, let alone highways as the most modern form of connections, which are present in the neighboring countries.

Energy capacities have not been developed with the con-struction of new facilities since the introduction of the ther-mal power plant “Pljevlja”, more than 30 years ago. Only the most urgent overhauls were made in this important econo-mic segment, i.e. reconstruction due to the “breaking” of the system or serious breakdowns on the transmission plants. Obvious problems in the work of this system are exposed in the increased loss of energy in the distribution network (around 23%), which is significantly above the established standard and high percentage of unpaid and written -off debts. These characteristics as subjective weaknesses that were often supported with inadequate pricing policy that was occasionally, depending on the economic circumstan-ces, determined by the social policy, have largely contribu-ted to the stagnation of the energy system in Montenegro.

In addition to the consumption and established price, which was subsequently insignificantly decreased due to the public pressure, EPCG’s January electricity bills for 2010 has “calculated” to its loyal consumers proportional share of the

value of the electricity loss, which, of course, loyal custo-mer have not consumed and which was significantly abo-ve the standards in this area. Therefore, EPCG is practically introducing new economic and legal doctrine, where con-sumers have to pay for what they have not consumed, that is, they have to pay for what other consumers have stolen. This “virus”, which is now out of control of the EPCG and the legal system of the national economy, has been created in the company itself, where the employees have not been obliged to pay consumed electricity for many years.

If we add to this the fact that the EPCG had continuously imported 30 to 50 million EUR per year, then the issue of economic viability is raised of the further passive attitude towards the construction of new energy plants. There whe-re many verbal activities in this regard. First, there was the issue of economic valorization of the construction of the hydro power plant on rivers Komarnica, Tara, then Morača and Tara, on the part of the of the river Tara, and then aga-in, construction of the system on the Moraca river...

We have already said that the funds from the privatiza-tion were not used for the reinvestments, i.e. construction of new industrial and infrastructural capacities, instead, funds were used for new personal and joint consumption through the payment of unpaid salaries to the employees, construction of sports centers and “urgent needs” of com-panies, both public or privatized. Therefore, effects of such intervention measures are usually negative in the long run, coming back as a boomerang for the overall economic de-velopment. It can be stated that there has been no finan-cing or opening of any major industrial or infrastructural capacity based on the funds from the ownership transfor-mation, despite the announcements. The best illustration is the privatization of the company AD “Jugopetrol” Kotor, where it was announced that 25 million DEM from its pri-vatization will be invested in the reconstruction and electri-fication of the railway Podgorica – Nikšić. Ten years passed since, and the funds have been spent long time ago, however there was no investment in this infrastructure whatsoever.

developmenT opporTuniTies If we consider the fact that the ultimate strategic product is only that product that has energy attributes, be it energy for technical or biological systems, than the need arises for the adequate analysis of the real basis of available opportunities for organizing own production of the national economy.

Montenegro has enviable unexploited hydro-energy po-tential, whose power is potentially ten times higher than the power of existing facilities. Naturally, this parameter has to be considered as relative, since there are existing technical possibilities that are more modern than the existing ones, which can reuse the same water flow downstream with ad-ditional cascades, taking into account the configuration of the catchment.

Contrary to the hydro-energy, which is renewable and re-generative and suitable for economic exploitation, available reserves of coal, based on the previous research, enable long-term exploitation in two basins (Pljevalja and Berane), also for energy purposes. Namely, Pljevlja has a thermal power plant, operating almost during the whole year, although it was built to compensate the decreased production of hyd-ro energy in the drought periods. Additional irrational use

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Za razliku od hidroenergije, koja je obnovljiva i prirod-no regenerativno predodređena za ekonomsko korišćen-je, raspoložive zalihe uglja, na osnovu dosadašnje istra-ženosti, omogućavaju dugoročnu eksploataciju u dva ba-sena (Pljevaljski i Beranski), takođe u energetske svrhe. Raspoloživi kapaciteti se neracionalno i nedovoljno ko-riste. Naime, u Pljevljima funkcioniše termoelektrana, čiji rad praktično traje skoro cijelu godinu, i ako joj je gradn-ja bila namjenska, kao revirzibilne, odnosno da intervent-no svojom produkcijom koriguje nedostatak vodotoka i po tom osnovu smanjene proizvodnje hidro energije, u peri-odu suše. Pored toga, neracionalnost se ogleda i u činjenici što se eksploatacijom uglja kao nus produkt javlja zavidna količina potrebnih supstanci za racionalan rad cementare, takvog kapaciteta, čija bi godišnja proizvodnja u znatnoj mjeri zadovoljavala potrebe nacionalne ekonomije. Na taj način raspoloživi resursi bi bili privedeni namjeni, znatno smanjeni troškovi poslovanja Rudnika uglja pri eksploata-ciji, povećan obim proizvodnje, smanjeni izdaci uređenja devastiranog prostora po osnovu principa ekonomije obi-ma, smanjena uvozna zavisnost, smanjen spoljno-trgovin-ski deficit, povećana uposlenost, povećani prihodi lokal-nom i republičkom budžetu, uvećan životni standard i sl.

Rudnik uglja u Beranama, iako je izvršena svojinska transformacija već više od tri godine nije u eksploataciji, pri čemu nema ni adekvatnih najava kada će početi sa radom.

Najavljivana istraživanja nafte i gasa od “Helenika”, po osnovu ugovorenih obaveza o privatizaciji “Jugopetrol”-a, nikako da počnu, iako je ugovoreno vrijeme isteklo. Prema dosadašnjim istraživanjima postoje realne indicije da u di-jelu podmorja Crne Gore ima nafte i gasa, koji čekaju vje-rovatno bolja vremena.

Što se tiče drugih oblika energije za tehničke sisteme (snaga vazdušnih strujanja, sunčeva energija, plima i osje-ka i dr.), još uvijek je u fazi nedovoljne istraženosti i rijetkih pokušaja primjene ili eksperimentisanja, mada očigledno postoje realne mogućnosti.

Postoji široka lepeza oblika energije prijeko potrebnih za biološke sisteme koji se mogu proizvoditi u Crnoj Gori, a u suštini su strateškog karaktera isto kao i energija za teh-ničke sisteme. Drugačije rečeno, nacionalna ekonomija prevashodno teba da organizuje i privede namjeni svoje energetske potencijale. Za razliku od energije za tehničke sisteme, energija za biološke sisteme se stvara u direktnoj ili indirektnoj proizvodnji životnih namirnica. Čini se da ni o tom imperativnom zahtjevu, neophodno potrebnom za stabilan ekonomski sistem, nedovoljno vodimo raču-na. Naime, u prethodnom periodu razvoja do 1990. godi-ne, bio je zavidan broj privrednih subjekata sa značajnim godišnjim produktima poljoprivrednih proizvoda i indus-trijskih prerađevina osnovnih životnih namirnica. Najveći broj tih proizvođača sada ni pravno, a skoro ni ekonomski ne postoji. Pomenućemo samo najveće u nacionalnim raz-mjenama, koji više ne postoje ili ne obavljaju proizvodnu djelatnost: PTK “Nikšić”, PIK “Bjelasica” Bijelo Polje, PTK “Pljevlja”, “Bojna Njiva” Mojkovac, “Agropolimlje” Berane, PTK “Boka” Herceg Novi, “Primorka” Bar, Farma krava Spuž, Farma ovaca “Jezerocop” Žabljak, “Bajo Pivljanin” Plužine, “Soko Štark”Andrijevica, “Crnagorakop” Danilovgrad, “Ribarstvo” Rijeka Crnojevića, “Mljekara” Podgorica, “Sinjajevina” Šavnik i dr.

Sadašnji obim proizvodnje poljoprivrednih proizvoda i prerađevina globalno podmiruje potrebe domicilnog sta-novništva u vrijednosti od 25-35%. Naravno, i taj zanemarl-jivo mali obim proizvodnje je više rezultat uspješne produk-cije Plantaža “13. Jul” Podgorica i pivare “Trebjesa” Nikšić, koji participiraju sa više od polovine ukupno iskazane vri-jednosti, u odnosu na ukupnu vrijednost produkata indi-vidualnog sektora.

Uvažavajući raspoložive resurse, kako u pogledu klime, zemljišta i radne snage, posebno strateškog značaja pro-izvodnje energanata za biološke sisteme, odnosno proi-zvodnje hrane i životnih namirnica, kao i inaugurisanog opredjeljenja da turizam čini okosnicu privrednog razvoja Crne Gore, očigledno je da postojeće mjere, ni tekuće, ni dugoročne ekonomske politike ne daju pozitivne rezultate. Naprotiv, proizvodnja hrane i njenih prerađevina iz godi-ne u godinu stagnira ili je manja. Prema podacima CBCG, svaki dan se uvozi osnovnih životnih namirnica i prerađe-vina u vrijednosti od milion eura. Naravno, to su najvećim dijelom ekvivalenti za potrebe domicilnog stanovništva. Vrijednost uvoza životnih namirnica bila bi znatno veća da je turistička sezona po obimu posjećenosti i očekivanoj po-trošnji turističke klijentele bila na približno realno mogućoj popunjenosti raspoloživih turističkih kapaciteta.

Očigledno je da i poljoprivredna proizvodnja, kao po mnogo čemu važan segment privrede, nije našla svoje ade-kvatno mjesto u strukturi novostvorene vrijednosti nacio-nalne ekonomije. Gubici po tom osnovu su evidentni kroz kontinuirani odliv značajnih finansijskih sredstava, nagla-šene uvozne zavisnosti, uvećanja spoljno-trgovinskog defi-cita, manje zaposlenosti, manjih budžetskih prihoda, većih socijalnih davanja, devastacije poljoprivrednog zemljišta i prostora, naglašene migracije, sve izrazitije nejednakosti u nivoima regionalne razvijenosti i dr.

šTo nijesmo iskorisTili?Za to nezaobilazno pitanje dovoljno je sagledati strukturu finansijskog sistema jedne nacionalne ekonomije, raznovrs-nost finansijskih instrumenata, naravno i učesnika na tržiš-tu, pa da se stekne realna slika o razvijenosti te ekonomije. Posmatrajući iz tog ugla, za crnogorsku ekonomiju možemo reći da je finansijski sistem, u odnosu na razvijene zemlje, nedovoljno razvijen. Ako bi taj odnos posmatrali iz ugla od prije desetak godina, kada nije ni postojao samostalan finan-sijski sistem, onda se donekle ta loša slika mijenja. Međutim, posao uvođenja crnogorske ekonomije u međunarodne toko-ve finansija tek predstoji , a samim tim još mnoštvo obaveza.

Proces svojinske transformacije je u suštini inicirao trans-formaciju finansijskog sistema koji je neposredno uslovl-jen stranim direktnim investicijama (SDI). Suštinski smi-sao svojinske transformacije prevashodno se ogleda u čin-jenici da se poveća konkurentna sposobnost privrede, kon-tinuirano uvećava produkcija i alocira kapital u najprofi-tabilnije djelatnosti od strane vlasnika (kupca), a da drža-va kapital ostvaren transferom, plasira u strateški značajne projekte po nacionalnu ekonomiju, multiplikujući pozitiv-ne efekte i povećavajući konkurentnost nacionalne ekono-mije u odnosu na konkurentnost drugih.

Otuda je, na određen način iz više razloga, interesantno posmatrati obim i dinamiku priliva SDI u Crnoj Gori od početka procesa privatizacije.



is reflected in the fact hat the coal exploitation has as a by-product significant quantities of substances that can be used for the rational operation of the cement factory, whose an-nual production can largely satisfy the needs of the natio-nal economy. In this manner, available resources would be put into use, which would significantly decrease the cost of the coal mine operations, increase the volume of produc-tion, decrease the cost of reconstruction of devastated area based on the principle of volume economy, decrease the de-pendence on the import, decrease the foreign trade deficit, increase employment, revenues of the local and republic budget and standard of living, etc.

Although the coal mine in Berane has been privatized three years ago, it is still not operational, with no adequate announcements when it will became operation.

Announce research of the oil and gas potential, by “Helenika”, according to contracted obligations from the privatization of “Jugopetrol”, have not started, although the contracted deadline has expired. According to the previous research, there are realistic indications that there is oil and gas pre-sent in that part of the sea in Montenegro, probably wai-ting for better times.

Regarding other energy forms used for technical systems (wind energy, solar energy, flux and reflux, etc.), they still have not been researched enough and experiments and ef-forts to use these forms of energy are still rare, although they have obvious potentials.

There are many energy sources required for biological sys-tems that can be produced in Montenegro, which are of the same strategic character as the energy for technical systems. In other words, national economy shod be primarily orga-nized and utilize its energy potentials. As opposed to the energy for technical systems, energy for biological systems is created in the direct or indirect production of commodi-ties. It seems that this imperative request, required for the stabile economic system is not being observed sufficiently. Namely, in the previous development period, until 1990, there was a significant number of companies with impor-tant annual production of agricultural products and indus-trially processed food. Majority of these producers do not exist anymore, both as a legal and economic entity. We will mention just the biggest national producers that don’t exist anymore, or are not involved in production: PTK “Nikšić”, PIK “Bjelasica” Bijelo Polje, PTK “Pljevlja”, “Bojna Njiva” Mojkovac, “Agropolimlje” Berane, PTK “Boka” Herceg Novi, “Primorka” Bar, Cattle Farm Spuž, Sheep Farm “Jezerocop” Žabljak, “Bajo Pivljanin” Plužine, “Soko Štark”Andrijevica, “Crnagorakop” Danilovgrad, “Ribarstvo” (fishery) Rijeka Crnojevića, “Mljekara” Podgorica (dairy), “Sinjajevina” Šavnik, etc.

Current volume of production of agricultural products and processed food is globally meeting the needs of the re-sident population at the level of 25-35%. Naturally, such small volume of production is primarily the result of a very successful production of Plantation “13. Jul” Podgorica and beer factory “Trebjesa” Nikšić, that make up more than half of this value, compared to the total value of the individu-al sector products.

Considering available resources, related to the clima-te, land and labor force, and in particular strategic im-portance of the production of energy sources for biolo-

gical systems, that is, production of food and commodi-ties, as well as the proclaimed decision to make tourism a basis of economic development of Montenegro, it is ob-vious that neither current nor long-term economic poli-cy measures are giving positive results. On the contrary, production of food and processed food is stagnating and even decreasing each year. According to the CBCG data, daily import of basic food products and processed food amounts million euros. These are mainly equivalents for the need of the domicile population. Value of the import of commodities could be significantly higher if the avai-lable tourist capacities were full.

It is obvious that agricultural production, as an important economic segment, did not find adequate place in the struc-ture of newly created value of the national economy. Losses in this regard have been recorded through the continuous outflow of significant financial means, strong dependence on the import, increase of the foreign trade deficit, decre-ased employment, decreased budget revenues, greater so-cial allowances, devastation of agricultural land and area, significant migration, uneven regional development, etc.

WhaT Was noT used?In order to answer this question it is sufficient to look at the structure of the financial system of a national economy and diversity of financial instruments and market players to get a realistic picture of economic development. It can be concluded that the Montenegrin economy and its finan-cial system are insufficiently developed compared to the developed countries. However, if we consider the situation that existed ten years ago, when there was no independent financial system, then the current situation is not so bad. Nevertheless, Montenegrin economy has to be included in international financial flows, which will require fulfillment of many obligations.

Ownership transformation process has initiated the transformation of financial system that is directly depen-dent on the foreign direct investments (FDI). Main objec-tive of ownership transformation is to increase the compe-titive capacities of the economy, continuously increase pro-duction and allocate the capital to the most profitable ac-tivities of the owners (buyers). The state should direct the capital from the transfer to the strategic projects, in order to multiply positive effects and increase competitiveness of the national economy.

Therefore it is interesting to look at the volume and dy-namics of FDI inflow in Montenegro from the beginning of the privatization process.

Some macroeconomic indicators in Montenegro

Year GDP (mil.) FDI (mil.)Growth

Rate PDP

Inflation

Rate

Budget

(def./sur.)

Total Loans

(000 eur)

Total Deposts

(000 eur)

2002 1.360,4 76,3 0,81 9,4 -2,01 125.000 206.000

2003 1.510,1 38,7 2,53 6,7 -3,29 2.625 218.008

2004 1.669,8 50,6 2,97 4,3 -2,18 281.483 273.194

2005 1.815,0 380,9 4,2 1,8 -1,92 375.941 487.917

2006 2.149,0 466,7 6,5 2,0 1,89 847.166 1.075.769

2007 2.807,9 524,9 10,7 7,7 7,4 2.245.684 2.091.075

2008 3.339,0 567,6 8,0 7,2 1,5 2.769.023 1.950.912

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Priliv SDI u poslednje četiri godine kreće se u nivou od 20% učešća u BDP. Takav transfer se bilježi i u toku 2009. godi-ne, gdje je ostvaren priliv po tom osnovu dostigao 903 mili-ona eura, što je 59,3% više nego u istom periodu prethodne godine. Takav trend neće biti održiv u tekućoj godini, već će doći do drastičnog pada priliva. Priliv ovih sredstava u znatnoj mjeri je doprinio konsolidaciji bankarskog sektora odnosno monetarnog sistema u cjelini.

Ono što je bitno istaći je činjenica da je najveći dio SDI vezan za kupovinu nekretnina, ulaganje u bankarski sek-tor i sektor telekomunikacija. Međutim, struktura SDI se postepeno mijenja, pri čemu se znatno smanjuje priliv po osnovu nekretnina, a povećava u korist privrednih društava.

Pažljivim analitičkim sagledavanjem, visoki priliv SDI, u odnosu na BDP, imao je značajne efekte na rast depozi-ta i samim tim na razvoj bankarskog sistema, i tržište kapi-tala. Efekat na rast depozita bio je dvostran. Sa jedne, stra-ne kao razultat prodaje imovine i nekretnina, dio dobive-nog novca je deponovan u bankarski sistem. Sa druge stra-ne, kroz proces stranog investiranja na crnogorskom tržiš-tu su dolazile kredibilne strane firme koje su postale zna-čajan partner bankarskog sistema i kao deponent i kao ko-risnik bankarskih sredstava.

Proces stranog investiranja imao je značajan efekat i na budžetske prihode. Naime, SDI je uticao na rast ekonom-skih aktivnosti i po tom osnovu na rast poreskih prihoda, ali isto tako, na taj način po osnovu tako ostvarenog prili-va sačuvan je značajan broj radnih mjesta, čime je olakša-na pozicija državnih fondova.

Međutim, bez obzira na nesporne pozitivne uticaje, SDI su imale uticaja i u negativnom smjeru, stvarajući i uveća-vajući negativne posljedice. Tako je npr., nesporan direktan uticaj SDI na rast deficita tekućeg računa platnog bilansa. Sa jedne strane, to je posljedica ubrzanog razvoja, jer su strani investitori vršili dodatna ulaganja u preduzeća koja su kupili da bi povećali nivo njihove konkurentnosti. Naravno, plas-mani ovakvih investicija trebali bi imati pozitivne efekte na privredni rast odmah nakon određenog vremena njihovog funkcionalnog privođenja namjeni. Ipak, globalna ekonom-ska kriza realno je doprinijela značajnom smanjenju broja turista i po tom osnovu prometa, kao i evidentne nespor-ne činjenice da je došlo do objektivnog smanjenja potro-šačke moći turističkih posjetilaca, naravno i po tom osno-vu s druge strane došlo je do pada cijena usluga od strane onih koji ih nude, kao tržišna neminovnost.

Drugi oblik negativnih posljedica je činjenica da je veli-ki broj pojedinaca prodajom nekretnina značajno povećao svoj životni standard, što je uzrokovalo bitnije uvećanje uvo-

za automobila, razne opreme za domaćinstva, građevinskog materijala i dr. U pitanju je značajniji dio uvoza trajnih po-trošnih dobara, što je uzrokovalo naglašeni odliv finansij-skih sredstava i dodatno, značajnije uvećalo izdatke po osno-vu potrošnje energenata, kao i sredstava za održavanje i sl., što je uzrokovalo značajnije uvećavanje budžetskih priho-da, pri čemu se stvarala nerealna slika o realnoj snazi naci-onalne ekonomije. Eskaliranje nerealne potrošnje nameće imperativan zahtjev nužnog uvođenja restrikcija i ekviva-lentnog formiranja javne potrošnje, što je samo dodatno usložilo makroekonomske odnose, pretvarajući budžetski suficit u naglašen deficit budžeta, u godinama koje slijede. Naravno, mnogo nelagodniji osjećaj nužno će biti eksponi-ran kada se bude sprovodio proces usklađivanja javne po-trošnje sa realnim mogućnostima i po tom osnovu utvrđi-vanja tehnoloških viškova uposlenih u svim sferama rad-nog angažovanja.

Uvažavajući činjenicu da je nacionalna ekonomija, za pe-riod od 2002. do i sa 2009-om godinom, po osnovu svojin-ske transformacije prihodovala vrijednost u iznosu od pri-bližno tri milijarde i trista miliona eura, što je prema proc-jeni MMF-a nešto i više od vrijednost BDP-a za 2009. go-dinu crnogorske nacionalne ekonomije, nije potrebno po-sebno naglašavati njihov značaj.

O kakvim se sredstvima radi, značajnim po razvoj nacio-nalne ekonomije, ubjedljivo govori podatak da je izlicitirana vrijednost autoputa Bar – Boljari, znatno niža ( 2,7 milijardi eura), od kumulativnog iznosa ostvarenog po osnovu SDI.

Iz tabelarnog pregleda makro-ekonomskih pokazatelja u Crnoj Gori, u koloni depozita i kreditnih plasmana, za isti period posmatranja uočljiva je različita dinamika.

Rast depozita umjerenog intenziteta eksponiran je zakl-jučno sa 2004. godinom, zatim je u 2005. godini njihov iznos bio skoro udvostručen, što je prisutno i u 2006. i 2007. go-dini, da bi u 2008. godini došlo do smanjenja vrijednosti. Međutim, upoređujući vrijednosti kretanja depozita sa vri-jednostima odobrenih kredita bankarskog sektora u Crnoj Gori, moramo istaći činjenicu da je plasirani kreditni po-tencijal neznatno niži od vrijednosti raspoloživih depozita sve do 2007. godine, gdje imamo obrnut odnos, pri čemu su veći kreditni plasmani od vrijednosti depozita za više od 10%. U sljedećoj 2008. godini, taj nepovoljan odnos, ispol-jen u bržem rastu kreditnih plasmana (za preko 30% u od-nosu na 2007. godinu), dodatno je usložen istovremenim padom vrijednosti depozita za isti period, u iznosu od 7%.

Tendencija pada depozita, u blažem intenzitetu, nastavlje-na je u prošloj, a prisutna je i u tekućem kvartalu ove godine.

Međutim,ako posmatramo, za razliku od javne po-trošnje u ovom smislu, segment lične potrošnje, odnos-no potrošnju stanovništa, doći ćemo do činjenica koje is-poljavaju slične tendencije. Naime, zaduženost po stanov-niku, prema srbijanskom sajtu kamatica.com, za protek-le tri godine najveći rast u regionu bilježe Makedonija, Crna Gora i Rumunija.

Zaduženost po stanovniku Crne Gore, prema tom is-traživanju,u 2009. godini iznosi 1500 eura, što je rast od čak 56% u odnosu na 2007. godinu, pri čemu su još više zabrinjavajući pokazatelji kada se dugovanja posmatraju po zaposlenom, koja premašuju iznos od 5500 eura. Ne treba zaboraviti da je sve veći broj radnika koji ostaju bez posla kao i da je sve veći broj onih uposlenih čije zarade

Godina BDP (u mil.) SDI (u mil.)Stopa rasta

PDP-a

Stopa

inflacije

Budžet

(def./suf.)

Ukupni krediti

(000 eura)

Ukupni depoziti

(000 eura)

2002 1.360,4 76,3 0,81 9,4 -2,01 125.000 206.000

2003 1.510,1 38,7 2,53 6,7 -3,29 2.625 218.008

2004 1.669,8 50,6 2,97 4,3 -2,18 281.483 273.194

2005 1.815,0 380,9 4,2 1,8 -1,92 375.941 487.917

2006 2.149,0 466,7 6,5 2,0 1,89 847.166 1.075.769

2007 2.807,9 524,9 10,7 7,7 7,4 2.245.684 2.091.075

2008 3.339,0 567,6 8,0 7,2 1,5 2.769.023 1.950.912

Neki makro-ekonomski pokazatelji u Crnoj Gori



FDI inflow in the past four years amounted around 20% of the GDP share. This transfer was recorded in 2009, when the realized inflow amounted 903 million euros, which is 59.3% more than in the same period of the previous year. This trend will not be sustainable in the current year, due to the drastic decrease of the inflow. Inflow of these funds has largely contributed to the consolidation of the banking sector and monetary system in general.

It should be emphasized that the major part of FDI is re-lated to the purchase of property, investments in the ban-king and telecommunication sector. However, FDI struc-ture is gradually changing, with significant decrease of the inflow related to the property, and the increase related to companies.

Analysis show that the high inflow of FDI, in relation to the GDP had significant effects on the growth of deposits and therefore the growth of the banking system and capi-tal market. Effect on the growth of deposits was dual. On one hand, as a result of the sale of property and real esta-te, part of money was deposited in the banking sector. On the other hand, through the process of foreign investment, credible foreign companies came to the Montenegrin mar-ket and became important partners of the banking system, both as depositors and users of bank funds.

Foreign investment process had important effects on the budget revenues. Namely, FDI has impacted the develop-ment of economic activities and related growth of tax re-venues, and helped maintain a great number of jobs, which facilitated the position of the state funds.

However, regardless of the positive effects of the FDI, they also had negative consequences. Therefore, FDI had impac-ted the growth of the balance of payment current account deficit. On one hand, this is the consequence of accelerated development, because the foreign investors had made ad-ditional investments in the companies that they have pur-chased, in order to increase their level of competitiveness. Naturally, these investments should have positive effects on the economic growth after a certain period of time. However, global economic crisis has contributed to the significant decrease of the number of tourists and therefore the turno-ver. Additionally, consumer power of tourist has decreased, and consequently price of services have inevitably dropped.

Other form of negative consequences is the fact that many individuals have significantly increased their living standard through the sale of real estate, which caused a significant in-crease of the import of cars, household appliances, construc-tion material, etc. This import of permanent consumption goods has caused increased outflow of financial means and has increased the expenses for the energy sources and ma-intenance means, which caused important increase of budget revenues and created unrealistic picture of the real strength of national economy. Escalation of unrealistic consumption causes the introduction of restrictions and equivalent es-tablishment of public consumption, which has additionally complicated macroeconomic relations, turning the budget surplus into high budget deficit in the following years. This will become even more complex during the process of har-monization of public consumption and real potential and related harmonization of redundant work force in all areas.

Considering the fact that the national economy from 2002 to 2009 has realized approximately three billions and

three million euros from the ownership transformation, which according to the IMF estimates is more than the va-lue of the national economy GDP, its importance is suffi-ciently emphasized.

These funds are important for the national economy, since the value of the highway Bar – Boljari is significantly lower (2.7 billion euros) than the cumulative amount rea-lized from the FDI.

Table overview of macroeconomic indicators in Montenegro, in the column of deposits and loans show a distinctly diffe-rent dynamics for the same period.

Increase of deposits is moderate in 2004, while in 2005 they have almost doubled. This trend continued in 2006 and 2007, while in 2008 their value has decreased. However, when comparing the value of deposits with the value of lo-ans of the banking sector in Montenegro, it has to be em-phasized that the loan potential is insignificantly lower than the value of available deposits, until 2007, when we have a reverse situation, where the loan value exceeds the value of deposits by more than 10%. In the following 2008, this un-favorable relation is reflected in the faster growth of loans (by over 30% compared to 2007) and is additionally com-plicated with the parallel decrease of the deposits in the same period, by 7%.

Trend of deposit decrease has continued with less inten-sity in the past year and is also present in the current qu-arter of this year.

However, if we look at the personal consumption seg-ment, i.e. citizens consumption, similar trends can be ob-served. Regarding the indebtedness per capita, the highest growth in the region in the past three years has been recor-ded in Macedonia, Montenegro and Romania, according to the Serbia website kamatica.com.

According to the research from 2009, indebtedness per capita of Montenegro amounts 1500 EUR, which is 56% more compared to 2007, with even more worrying indica-tors of the indebtedness per employee, which exceed 5500 EUR. It should not be forgotten that more and more wor-kers are loosing their jobs, and there is an increased num-ber of employees whose salaries are later one month, two months or even longer, which is additionally increasing the existing level of indebtedness parameter and makes the pay-ment of debt even more complex, even without the new lo-ans, which bringing instability in the banking sector.

Situation in the economy sector is not much more favo-rable. Biggest threat for the future period of consolidation of economic and monetary flows is the major misbalance of the growth of indebtedness and income, i.e. average sa-laries and inevitable decrease of employment.

What is actually happening with national economy? There if no doubt that certain progress has been achieved throu-gh the ownership transformation. However, there were some significant negative consequences. According to the Ministry of Finance data, state debt of Montenegro at the end of 2009 amounted 1.14 billion euros, or 37% PDP. From the amount of state debt, internal debt at the end of the year amounted 440.3 million euros, or 14.3% of the GDP, while the external debt amounted 699.9 million euros, or 22.7%.

Due to the increasing problems in the national economy in 2009, foreign trade deficit is by 30% lower compared to 2008 and is nominally exceeding the amount of public debt

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kasne mjesec, dva pa i više vremena, što ni uz uslov da se ne realizuju novi zajmovi i time dodatno uvećava, posto-jeći nivo parametra zaduženosti uvećava i usložava nji-hovo vraćanje, što unosi nestabilnost u bankarski sektor.

Ni u privrednom sektoru nije ništa povoljnija situaci-ja. Otuda,najveću opasnost za budući period konsolido-vanja privrednih i monetarnih tokova predstavlja zna-čajna neuravnoteženost rasta kreditne zaduženosti i ras-ta dohotka odnosno prosječnih zarada, pa i neminovnog pada uposlenosti.

Šta se zapravo dešava sa nacionalnom ekonomijom? Nije sporna činjenica da se procesom svojinske transformacije postigao određeni napredak. Međutim, ispoljene su i zna-čajne negativne posljedice. Prema podacima ministarstva fi-nansija državni dug Crne Gore na kraju 2009. godine izno-sio je 1,14 milijarde eura ili 37% PDP-a. Od navedenog izno-sa državnog duga, unutrašnji dug je na kraju prošle godine iznosio 440,3 miliona eura ili 14,3% BDP-a, a spoljni 699,9 miliona eura ili 22,7%.

Isto tako, iako je stanje u 2009. godini, zbog sve pri-sutnijih problema u privrednom sistemu nacionalne eko-nomije, spoljno-trgovinski deficit manji je za 30% u od-nosu na 2008. godinu i nominalno premašuje iznos dr-žavnog javnog duga u 2009. godini. Njegovo prisustvo sve više indirektno ugrožava monetarnu stabilnost na-cionalne ekonomije.

Konstantan rast nelikvidnosti, koji se ogleda u dugovan-jima i neizmirenim međusobnim obavezama između pri-vrednih subjekata, pokazuje da ekonomska kriza u Crnoj Gori još uvijek ubrzava svoj intenzitet. Prema podacima CBCG, vidljivi dugovi nelikvidnih firmi, evidentirani u unutrašnjem platnom prometu u obliku “blokiranih” ra-čuna, na kraju februara 2010. godine premašili su iznos od 186 miliona eura.

Ono što treba posebno da zabrinjava jeste činjenica da je, prema analizi ekonomskih kretanja urađenoj od strane eksperata MMF-a, crnogorska privreda u minu-loj godini ostvarila najveću stopu recesije u regionu, is-kazane u padu BDP-a od 7%. Prema podacima CB pa-rametar iznosi nešto manje, ali je nesporno naglašen pad vrijednosti.

Realnu sliku ukupnih ekonomskih odnosa i evidentnih poteškoća upotpunjuju podaci da se u drugoj polovini prošle godine, kao i u proteklim mjesecima 2010. godi-ne, kontinuirano manifestuju obustave rada u najvećim proizvodnim kolektivima i to eksponiranim u najri-gidnijem obliku – štrajku glađu. Zaštitu svojih ugro-ženih prava, na zaostale, neisplaćene zarade i nadokna-de, obustavom rada zatražili su zapošljeni: u “Kombinatu aluminijuma” u Podgorici, zatim u “Željezari” Nikšić, “Boksitima” Nikšić, iako su ovi privredni subjekti svojin-ski transformisani. Po već uhodanoj praksi skoro identič-ne proteste imali su i zapošljeni u “Duvanskom kombi-natu” Podgorica, “Duvankomercu” ,zatim AD “Mljekara” Podgorica ... Naravno, sličnih protesta radnika imamo širom Crne Gore.

Zajednički epilog dosadašnjih obustava je da je zahtjevi-ma radnika udovoljavano i to uglavnom od strane Vlade, a ne vlasnika, pri čemu su, bez obzira na kompromis, vi-šestruko izgubljena značajna materijalna sredstva, naravno i dragocjeno vrijeme. Naime, isplaćena sredstva po ovom

osnovu nijesu valorizovana iz poslovnog rezultata predu-zeća, već iz drugih izvora, a takođe dodatno opterećenje je i činjenica što proizvodni kapaciteti u periodu obusta-ve rada nijesu uopšte vršili djelatnost ili su zbog tehno-loškog procesa održavani na minimumu, što je uticalo na dalji pad proizvodnje i naravno, po tom osnovu su izo-stala i adekvatna finansijska izdvajanja, iz jednostavnog razloga što nijesu u međuvremenu stvarane nove upot-rebne vrijednosti.

S razlogom se nameće pitanje, da li je do recesije mora-lo doći i u kojem obimu, mora li uopšte dolaziti, i već ako mora, kako preduprijediti dalja kretanja da bi negativne posljedice bile svedene na najmanju moguću mjeru kao i vrijeme njihovog otklanjanja.

Samo dio prezentiranih pokazatelja ubjedlji-vo ukazuje na činjenicu da , zasigurno, postojeći način rješavanja evidentnih problema privrede nema ekonomskog rezona pa ni ekonomske logi-ke, što će direktno negativno uticati na ostale pri-vredne subjekte i dalja negativna kretanja u pri-vrednom sistemu. Dakle, evidentan je disparitet u kreditnoj emisi-ji, sa jedne strane, po osnovu značajnog uvećanja kreditnih plasmana, a sa druge strane, pada vri-jednosti depozita. Takve relacije kreditnih plas-mana, posve su imobilisale bankarski sektor, ug-rozile njegovu likvidnost, kao i mogućnost daljih plasmana kredita, a otuda i makro-ekonomsku stabilnost nacionalne ekonomije. Uz sve prethodne karakteristike nacionalne eko-nomije, koje se ogledaju kroz naglašenu recesiju, ispoljenu u padu BDP-a od 7%, padu industrij-ske proizvodnje za 32%, strukturnim neusklađe-nostima privrednog sistema, daljom rastućom unutrašnjom nelikvidnošću privrede, padom uposlenosti od 15%, rastom kreditne zaduženos-ti, naglašenim spoljno-trgovinskim deficitom, budžetskim deficitom, osjetnim padom životnog standarda eksponiranim u padu prosječnih pri-manja zaposlenih, kao i dodatnim povećanjem poreskim zahvatanja na privredne aktivnosti u ovoj godini, samo se dodatno usložava ekonom-ski opstanak. Bez radikalnijih sistemskih mjera podsticaja, pri-je svega proizvodnih aktivnosti, nema govora o oporavku nacionalne ekonomije, a kamoli o nje-nom razvoju. U tom smislu, očigledno se nameće zaključak nužno potrebnog ubrizgavanja svježeg kapita-la i to zamašnijeg iznosa, znatno većeg od naja-vljenih mjera Vlade i obznanjenih 300 miliona eura, kako bi manji dio,bio iskorišćen za izmi-renje prispjelih i preuzetih obaveza, a glavnina za podsticaj privrednih aktivnosti. U protivnom, kriza posve može izbjeći kontroli i eskalirati.



Just a part of presented indicators is convin-cingly supporting the fact that the existing man-ner of solving obvious problems doesn’t have economical rationality and logic, which will have a direct negative impact on other economic subjects and further negative movements in the economic system. Therefore, the disparity is evident in the credit emission, on one side, based on the significant increase of loans, and on the other, based on the decreased value of deposits. Such relations of loans have completely demobilized the banking sector and endangered its liquidity as well as the possibility of further loan placements, and therefore the macroeconomic stability of natio-nal economy. Considering previous characteristics of the natio-nal economy, reflected in the strong recession, ex-pressed in the decrease of GDP by 7%, decrease of industrial production by 32%, structural dis-parity of the economic system, further growing internal illiquidity of the economy, decrease of employment by 15%, increase of indebtedness, high foreign trade deficit, budget deficit, signifi-cant decline of the living standard reflected in the decrease of the average salaries of the employees and additional increase of taxes on economic ac-tivities in the current year, which is further com-plicating the economic survival. Without radical systemic incentive measures, pri-marily for production activities, national econo-mic recovery and development is not possible. In that regard, the conclusion is that injection of fresh capital is required, in a significantly grea-ter amount that the announced Government me-asures and stated 300 million euros, in order to use the part of capital for settlement of due and assumed obligations, while the main part sho-uld be used for encouraging economic activities. Without this, crisis can get out of control and escalate.

in 2009. Foreign trade deficit is increasingly endangering monetary stability of the national economy.

Permanent increase of illiquidity, which is reflected in the debts and unsettled obligations between the compa-nies demonstrates that the economic crisis in Montenegro is still accelerating its intensity. According to the CBCG data, visible debts of illiquid companies recorded in the in-ternal payment operations in the form of “blocked” acco-unts, at the end of February 2010, have exceeded the amo-unt of 186 million euros.

What is of particular concern is the fact that, according to the analysis of economic movements, done by the IMF experts, Montenegrin economy in the past year has realized the highest recession rate in the region, reflected in the 7% decrease of GDP. According to the data, CB parameter is so-mewhat lower, but the decrease of value is certainly present.

Real picture of general economic relations and obvious difficulties is completed by the data that in the second half of this year and the past months of 2010 there are continuo-us strikes in the biggest production companies, in its most rigid form – hunger strikes. Protection of their endange-red rights on unpaid salaries and allowances, were deman-ded through the strikes by the employees in the following companies: “Aluminum Plant” in Podgorica, “Steel Plant” Nikšić, “Bauxite Plant” Nikšić, although these companies have undergone the ownership transformation. According to the usual practice, almost identical protests were orga-nized by the employees of “Tobacco Factory” Podgorica, “Duvankomercu” (tobacco trading), AD “Mljekara” (dai-ry) Podgorica ... Naturally, there are similar workers pro-tests throughout Montenegro.

Common epilogue of previous strikes is that workers requests were fulfilled mainly by the Government, not

the owners, where, regardless of the compromise, many funds were lost as well as the valuable time. Namely, funds that were paid have not been valorized from the business result of the company, but from the other sources, and an additional burden is the fact that production facili-ties didn’t work during the strike period or their activi-ties were at the minimum due to the technological pro-cess. Additionally, there were no adequate financial allo-cations, because there was no creation of the new value in the mean time.

The right question is whether the recession had to come and in what scale and if it did, how to prevent further mo-vements in order to minimize negative consequences and to minimize the period of their elimination.

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BANKARSKI SEKTOR U NR KINI

Rojters je nedavno objavio da Industrial and Commercial bank of China (ICBC)

zauzima prvo mjesto na svijetu po plasma-nu aktivnog kapitala na tržištu. Ova kineska banka je uspjela da izbori prvo mjesto za veoma kratko vrijeme, prestizući tako američku Citigroup za više milijardi dola-ra. Prema klasifikaciji banaka objavljenoj u Global Finance-u, ova banka je 2005.g. zauzimala 26 mjesto. Akcije ICBC, plasi-rane na berzama Šangaja i Hong Konga, su u julu mjesecu 2009.g. zaradile 15%, naj-više zahvaljujući stalnoj ekspanziji i rastu dividendi što je jedna od prepoznatljivih karakteristika akcionarskog tržišta Kine.

Investitori danas daju veći kredibilitet azi-jskim i brazilskim bankama nego američkim i evropskim. Tržište je spremno da plati više za banke iz Kine i Brazila nego za banke iz SAD i EU. China Merchants Bank danas vrijedi 4,3 puta više od engleskog Lloyds-a. Istu sudbinu ima i banka UniCredit, koja je u toku 2000.g. vrednovana 3,2 puta a danas samo 0,71. U sličnoj situaciji je i banka Intesa Sanpaolo.

Fenomen se djelimično može objasni-ti razlikama u tradiciji izmedju Istoka i Zapada. Banke koje su prisutne u klasifi-kaciji, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank i Bank of China su državne banke koje po tradiciji nastavljaju da skupljaju depozite svojih, po prirodi veoma štedljivih građana.

nijesu im dozvolili da budu najmoćniji

Prema zvaničnom izvještaju objavljenom u januaru 2010.g. u Financial Times-u, banke Brazila, Rusije, Indije i Kine su na vrhu ljestvice dok banke SAD i EU zauzimanju zadnja mjesta. Ovaj rejting ukazuje da prve četiri pozicije zauzimaju kineske banke a peto brazilska, što je suprotno sa dešavanjima u 2000.g. kada su prva četiri mjesta zauzimale američke banke, dok su na petom i šestom mjestu bile engleska i italijanska UniCredit. Pomenuta brazilska banka, Itau Unibanco, tada je bila na sedmom mjestu Dr. Zorica VasovićEkspert i predavač u Torinu i Ženevi, kao i registrovani konsultant EU u Briselu

BANKA RISHENGCHANG Banka Rishengchang osnovana je 1823.g. u gradu Pingyao i najstarija je kineska banka. Postojala je za vrijeme Dinastije Čing koja je vladala od 1644 g. do 1911.g. To je prva banka u Kini koja je izdavala čekove. Za vri-jeme Dinastije Čing, valuta u Kini je bio srebrni kovani novac tako da je prenos velike količine novca bio problematičan. Rishengchang je u tu svr-hu ponudila ček čime je stekla ugled Hui tong Tian xia (banka koja pove-zuje čitav svijet), a njeni čekovi su bili prihvaćeni u bilo kom dijelu zeml-je. Rishengchang je imala ogroman uticaj na kinesku ekonomiju u toku svog postojanja dugog 108 godina. Banka Rishengchang, koja je promi-jenila oblik tradicionalnog načina plaćanja, bila je tako dobro organi-zovana da je proširila svoje djelovanje na teritoriji čitave Kine, a brzo se proširila i na Japan, Singapur i Rusiju, što joj je dalo epitet “prve ban-ke na svijetu”. Ova banka je postala toliko moćna i imala je trgovin-ske odnose širom Kine i u ostalim azijskim zemljama. Aktivnosti ban-ke Rishengchang su se brzo razvijale preko 22 poslovnice u najprosperi-tetnijem periodu, što je učinilo da Pinyao postane finansijski centar Kine. Poštujući staru kinesku tradiciju, neke filijale su imale čak i prostorije za vježbanje borilačkih vještina i hram za religijske obrede. Danas je zapadni dio starog grada Pingyao u kome je osnovana banka Rishengchang bogati dio grada sa brojnim prodavnicama i mjesto gdje se zaključuju ozbiljni poslovni aranžmani. Po veoma jednostavnom izgle-du zgrade nikad se ne bi došlo do zaključka da je nekada ovo bio centar ogromne finansijske moći. Od 1995.g. se, na mjestu gdje je bilo sjedište banke, nalazi interesantan muzej gdje se može vidjeti kako su nekada izgledali šalteri, kancelarije, sale rezervisane za pregovaranja. U toku 2006.g. Rishengchang banka - muzej je uvrštena u Listu spomenika NR Kine.Zahvaljujući banci Rishengchang, stari i dobro očuvani grad Pingyao je prvi grad u Kini pod zaštitom Unesca.

BANKAR €

“Etiamsi omnes, ego non”(“Ako i svi, ja ne”)

Biblija


THE BANKING SECTOR IN THE PEOPLE`S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

They Wouldn`t let Them be the most powerful onesPN As per the official report published by the Financial Times in January 2010, banks from Brazil, Russia, India and China are the top rated banks, whereas those from the USA and the EU are somewhere at the bottom. The first four positions belong to banks from China and the fifth was taken by a bank from Brazil, thus showing quite the opposite ranking from that in 2000 when the top four banks came from the USA, with the fifth and the sixth position being held by the respective English bank and the Italian UniCredit bank. The now fifth Brazilian bank (Itau Unibanco) was rated seventh at the time

Dr Zorica Vasović PhDExpert and lecturer in Torino and Geneve, registered EU consultant in Bruxelles

The Reuters recently reported that Industrial and Commercial bank of

China (ICBC) is ranked first for the in-vestment of new capital, outstripping the American Citigroup by billions of US dol-lars. As per the bank classification repor-ted in the Global Finance 2005, this bank was ranked 26th at the time. Shares of ICBC earned 15% in the stock exchanges of Shanghai and Hong Kong in July 2009, primarily owing to the ongoing bank ex-pansion and increases in dividends, which is one of the distinguishing features of the China’s capital market.

Today investors bestow greater credibility on Asian and Brazilian banks than on the American and European ones. The market is willing to pay more for banks from China and Brazil than for that from the USA and the EU. Today, China Merchants Bank is worth 4.3 times more that the English Lloyds. The same fate befell UniCredit bank which was valued 3.2 times, and today a mere 0.71. A similar case is with Intesa Sanpaolo bank.

This phenomenon could be partly ex-plained by differences in the Western and Eastern traditions. The classified banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and the Bank of China are state owned banks which conti-nue receiving deposits from their, by na-ture thrifty, Chinese citizens.

Fore years the Chinese economy was ba-

RISHENGCHANG BANKRishengchang Bank was established in 1823 in the city of Pingyao and it is the oldest Chinese bank. It existed at the time of the Quing Dynasty which ruled from 1644 to 1911. This was the first Chinese bank to issue cheques. During the Dynasty reign, the Chinese currency was the silver coin, which rendered the transport of any larger amount of cash difficult. To that end, Rishengchang Bank offered cheques, thus gaining the reputation of a Hui Tong Tian Xia (“Business Connecting the Whole World”), and its cheques were accepted in every part of the country. Rishengchang had an enormous impact on the Chinese economy during its 108-year-long existence. Rishengchang Bank, which changed the form of the traditional manner of payment at the time, was well-organized and spread its business to the entire territory of China, soon to expand to Japan, Singapore and Russia and thus gaining the epithet of “the first bank in the world.” This bank became very powerful, with trading relationships established throughout China and other Asian countries. The bank’s activities soon developed through its 22 braches during the most prosperous times, which made Pingyao the China’s financial centre. Respecting the old Chinese tradition, some branches even have rooms for practising the martial arts and temples for practising religion. Today, the western side of Pingyao in which Rishengchang bank was situ-ated in a high-end part of the city with numerous shops and is the place where serious business arrangements are made. A rather plain appearance of the bank’s head office building would never make you think that it used to be the centre of enormous financial power. The former head office of the bank was made an interesting museum in 1995, displaying the appearance of the bank’s counters, offices, rooms reser-ved for negotiations. In 2006, the Rishengchang Bank – museum was in-cluded in the List of monuments of the People’s Republic of China.Owing to the Rishengchang Bank, the old and well-preserved city of Pingyao is the first city of China to be put under the UNESCO protection.

BANKAR €

“Etiamsi omnes, ego non”(“Even if all others… I will not”)

Mathew 26:33-34

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Ekonomija Kine je godinama bila zasno-vana isključivo na gotovini. I danas mno-gi subjekti nemaju račun otvoren u banci, štedne knjižice ili kreditne kartice. Čak se i isplata plata vrši u gotovini. Uprkos ovo-me, usljed rapidnog ekonomskog rasta, fi-nansijski sistem veoma brzo mutira i ra-čuni u bankama, kreditne kartice i kredi-ti sve više postaju popularni.

bankarski sisTem kine Sve kineske banke su pod kontrolom Narodne Banke Kine i Regulatorne Asocijacije kineskih banaka koje su pod direktnom kontrolom Vlade.

Narodna Banka Kine je centralna banka, odgovorna za politiku i stabilnost finansij-skog sistema, depozita i kredita dok je za-datak Regulatorne Asocijacije (osnovane 2003.g.) da vrši nadzor nad operacijama banaka. Kineski bankarski sistem postoji na dva nivoa - sa jedne strane je Narodna banka Kine a sa druge strane su banke or-ganizovane kao: ■ Komercijalne državne banke čiji je cilj

stvaranje profita i finansiranje velikih državnih preduzeća;

■ Državne banke: Industrijska i Komercijalna banka, Banka Kine, Poljoprivredna banka Kine i Kineska banka za izgradnju – tzv. “Velika četvorka” koja je u 2008.g. posjedova-la 55% tržišta.

■ Banke od nacionalnog interesa (Policy banks) imaju za cilj garantova- nje kredita na osnovu petogodišnjih razvojnih planova u sektoru industrij-ske politike, spoljne trgovine, razvo-ja infrastrukture i poljoprivrednog sektora putem državnih fondova. Tri osnovne banke od nacionalnog intere-sa su: Državna banka za razvoj, Banka za uvoz i izvoz i Poljoprivredna ban-ka za razvoj. Ove tri banke su u toku 2008.g. imale 10% tržišta.

■ Komercijalne banke osnovane tokom ‘80-ih godina postoje kao preduzeća i u potpunosti su pod nadzorom dr-žave.

■ Lokalne banke i manje finansijske in-stitucije koje su osnovane od seoskih kreditnih kooperativa kojih ukup-no ima 100 i u čijoj je nadležnosti fi-nansiranje malih i srednjih preduzeća. Kvota tržišta koje su ove banke imale u toku 2008.g. je 19%. Osnovna karakteristika ovakvog fi-

nansijskog aparata Kine su non-perfo-ming krediti. Non performing krediti (NPK), koji zahtijevaju specifičan me-nadžment u cilju sigurnosti vraćanja

pozajmljene sume, u 2005.g. su predsta-vljali 20% ukupnih kredita uprkos tvrd- nji nekih analitičara koji su smatrali da je ovaj broj potcijenjen.

U toku 2004.g. su stvorena četiri upravna preduzeća - po jedno za svaku od Velike četvorke - kojima je dat zadatak da sa-kupljaju NPK, pretvore ih u imovinu, izdaju obveznice i pomažu preduzeća. Osnovno sredstvo koje su koristila ova upravna preduzeća u cilju uspostavljanja discipline u vraćanju kredita je bila proda-ja na licitaciji dobara preduzeća – dužni-ka. Uprkos činjenici da su početni rezul-tati bili ohrabrujući, kako je vrijeme tek-lo, aktivnosti upravnih preduzeća su po-kazale svoja ograničenja.

Nivo kapitalizacije komercijalnih dr-žavnih banaka je bio veoma nizak. Banka Kine je imala 8,15% dok Poljoprivredna Banka Kine nije dostizala ni 1,5%. U toku 2004.g. je lansiran program reforme ban-karskog sistema Kine, u cilju smanjenja NPK komercijalnih državnih banaka kroz dokapitalizaciju i odobravanja NPK stra-nim investitorima kao i za pripremu ba-naka da budu kvotirane na tržištu. Vlada je ohrabrila komercijalne državne ban-ke da upravljaju na autonoman način sa sopstvenim NPK.

Prodaja NPK stranim investitorima je bila zaustavljena obzirom da su kineski zakoni obavezali odobravanje NPK u lo-kalnoj valuti naspram stranim ulaganji-ma u dolarima. Slabo se moglo očekivati da će dužnici sa NPK moći da ostvare do-bit u američkim dolarima, pa čak i u sluča-ju da se ovo moglo ostvariti, da su sprem-ni da upotrebe dolare dobijene da otplate dugova u juanima.

Dokapitalizacija tri osnovne kineske banke je počela 2003.g. Narodna banka Kine je u toku 2004.g. prenijela sopstve-ne rezerve ka novom entitetu stvorenom kao holding preduzeće od tri državne ban-ke koje su transformisale njihovu struktu-ru od banaka sa kapitalom koji je potpu-no pod kontrolom države u status akcio-nara koji je dopustio akcionarima da ima-ju učešće u ovim bankama.

Gornja granica do koje su strane ban-ke mogle učestvovati u kapitalu kineskih banaka je povećana na 20%, dok je učešće pojedinačnog investitora iznosilo maksi-mum 25%.

reforma bankarskoG sisTema kineNakon ulaska u Svjetsku Trgovinsku Organizaciju 11. decembra 2001.g. NR Kina se obavezala da izvrši reformu bankar-skog sistema. U novembru 2006.g. kineska



sed solely on cash. Even today many enti-ties do not have a bank account, savings de-posit books or credit cards. The payout of wages is also made in cash. However, due to the rapid economic growth, the China’s financial system has been mutating, ma-king bank accounts, credit cards and lo-ans more popular.

China’s banking sYsTem All Chinese banks are under the supervi-sion of the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Authority, both under the direct control of the Government.

The People’s Bank of China is the Chinese central bank, accountable for the policy and stability of the financial system, deposits and loans, while the China Banking Regulatory Authority (established in 2003) is responsible for the supervision of banks` operations. The Chinese banking system exists on two levels – the People’s Bank of China, on one side, and banks on the other side, organised as: ■ Commercial state banks having the

profit making and funding of big state undertakings as their objectives;

■ State banks: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, the so-called “Big Four” which market share in 2008 amounted to 55%;

■ Policy banks with the purpose of pro-viding credit guarantees based on fi-ve-year development plans in indus-trial policy, foreign trade, infrastructu-re development and agriculture throu-gh the state Funds. Three main such banks are China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank and Agricultural Development Bank and they accoun-ted for 10% market share in 2008.

■ Commercial banks established during 1980`s that existed as enterprises com-pletely under the state supervision.

■ Local banks and smaller financial in-stitutions (100) established from the former co-operatives and dealing with the financing of small and medium-si-zed enterprises. Their market share in 2008 was 19%.

The main feature of such a financial ap-paratus of China are non-performing lo-ans, which require tailor-made manage-ment with a view to securing their repay-ment. In 2005, these loans were reported to have made up 20% of total loans, regard-less of the claims by some analysts that this

figure was underestimated. In 2004, four administrative undertakings

were established (for every of the Big Four banks) and which were delegated the tasks to collect non-performing loans and turn them into assets, issue bonds and help en-terprises. The main means used by these administrative undertakings to introduce discipline in loan repayment was the auc-tion sale of enterprises`(debtors) proper-ty. In spite of the initially encouraging re-sults, the administrative undertaking were showing their limitations as the time went by.

Capitalization of the commercial sta-te banks was at a very low level. Bank of China’s capitalization was 8.15%, where-as that of Agricultural Bank of China did not even reach 1.5%. The program of the Chinese banking system reform was laun-ched in 2004, aimed to reduce non-perfor-ming loans in the commercial state banks and to prepare them for the stock exchan-ge listing. The Government encouraged the banks to independently manage their non-performing loans.

The sale of non-performing loans to fo-reign investors was stopped because the Chinese legislation prescribes the gra-ting of non-performing loans in the na-tional currency as opposed to foreign in-vestments in US dollars. It was less likely to expect that debtors holding non-perfor-ming loans would be able to make profit in US dollars, and even if they did, that they would be willing to use these US dollars to repay their debts in Yuans.

Recapitalization of the three main Chinese banks started in 2003. The People’s Bank of China transferred its reserves in 2004 to a new entity established as a holding compa-ny out of the three banks that had transfor-med their structures from banks fully con-trolled by the state to shareholding entities.

The upper limit for foreign banks` sha-re in capital of Chinese banks was increa-sed to 20%, whereas individual sharehol-der could own no more than 25% of shares.

reform of The Chinese bankinG sYsTemAfter joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on 11 December 2001, the People’s Republic of China committed to the ban-king sector reform. In November 2006, it enacted the Law on Foreign-Funded Banks that introduces numerous and important novelties in comparison with the former provisions set out in 2001. Foreign banks operating in the Chinese market can be organised in one of the following forms: ■ Wholly Foreign Owned Enterprise

jun 2010 | :Bankar

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Vlada je donijela Zakon o stranim investi-cionim bankama koji predstavlja brojne i važne novosti u odnosu na one iz 2001.g. Trenutno strane banke koje funkcionisu na kineskom tržištu mogu da imaju jedan od sledećih oblika: ■ Banke sa kapitalom koji je potpuno

u posjedu stranaca (Wholly Foreign Owned Enterprise, WOFE;

■ Banke sa stranim i kineskim kapita-lomn, (Joint Ventures Banks, JV)

■ Poslovnice stranih banaka (Foreign Bank Branch). Prije 2006.g. stranim bankama je bilo dopušteno da otvore jednu poslovnicu na teritoriji zemlje. Osnovne novine koje su nastale refor-

mom iz 2006.g. su sledeće: ■ Početni kapital koji se traži za WOFE

i JV banke je povećan na 1 milijardu renminbi (naspram 300 miliona za-htijevanih prije reforme iz 2006.g.). Minimalni kapital za poslovnice stranih banaka je povećan na 200 mi-liona RMB. (1 CNY = 0.115141 EUR);

■ Strane banke mogu da vrše aktivnos-ti bez ograničenja što se tiče vrste ope-racija i geografskog područja. Prije re-forme, stranim bankama je bilo do-pušteno da imaju aktivnosti samo u 20 velikih gradova Kine.

■ Ukinuto je ograničenje po kojem de-pozit u stranoj valuti dobijen od jedne investicione banke u inostranstvu nije mogao da pređe 70% imovine u stra-noj valuti u Kini.

Poslednjih godina je primijećena prog-resivna integracija kineskih i stranih bana-ka: 19 stranih investitora su kupili učešće u 16 kineskih banaka, čime iznos direktnih stranih investicija u lokalne banke iznosi 15% ukupne imovine. Ovaj proces se od-

nosi i na četiri komercijalne banke koje su počele proces privatizacije.

Usljed integracije, strane banke koje vrše aktivnosti u Kini mogu da komercijalizu-ju svoje proizvode i usluge putem sve šire mreže lokalnih banaka.

Jedna odredba Novog zakona o stranim bankama se odnosi na prodaju u RMB. Shodno ovoj odredbi strane banke mogu da obavljaju trgovinu u RMB sa kineskim klijentima samo kroz fiksne depozite gdje svaka transakcija ne može biti manja od 1 miliona RMB. Ova odredba ograniča-va i stavlja veliki dio građanstva van do-meta stranih banaka. Zahtjev za visokom kapitalizacijom je ocijenjen kao nedosl-jedan sa zahtjevima Svjetske Trgovinske Organizacije. Kina je donijela ovu odred-bu u cilju kontrole finansijskog sistema uz tvrdnju da je norma sasvim kompatibilna sa propisima STO.

Bankarski sistem Kine je okrenut ka kva-litetu u cilju zadovoljenja ne samo potreba klijenata sa klasičnim odobravanjem kre-dita i štednje već i novina kao sto su trast i asset menadžment, koji su tipični za kon-kurentna tržišta.

kineske lekCijeU vremenu kad SAD i EU troše milijarde dolara i eura da bi spasile bankarski sis-tem i ekonomiju, Kina je kao “ekonom-sko čudo” uspjela da se “izoluje” od ostat-ka svijeta. Dok on prolazi kroz jednu od najtežih recesija od ‘30-ih godina, Kina je ostvarila godišnji rast od 8%.

Postavlja se pitanje kako je sličan rast moguć u trenutku u kojem privrede osta-lih zemalja prolaze kroz depresiju uz konstantno opadanje potrošnje. Ne po-stoji ništa priblizno ni u jednoj zemlji, sasvim sigurno ne u SAD i EU. Kako je moguće da se u Kini globalna kriza uop-šte ne osjeća?

Globalna kriza kapitala je u stvari kriza kredita. Kina nije nikada dopustila svom bankarskom sistemu da podcijeni pro-izvodnju. Kineske banke rade za narod a ne obrnuto. Nedavno je Dik Durbin, senator Demokratske partije SAD, izja-vio: “Banke - što je veoma teško vjero-vati u momentu u kome se konfronti-ramo sa ekonomskom krizom i koju su stvorile same banke – su još uvijek naj-moćniji lobi u SAD. One praktično vla-daju zemljom”. Kina tako nešto nije do-zvolila svom bankarskom sistemu - nije mu dozvolila da postane toliko moćan da diktira zakone. Interesi naroda u Kini se stavljaju na prvo mjesto. Ovo je jedan od razloga što kineske banke nastavlja-

ju da odobravaju kredite privatnim lici-ma i preduzećima.

U SAD i EU, finansijski sektor je u uspo-nu, dok građani sve lošije žive uz rapidan rast nezaposlenosti a banke ne odobrava-ju kredite građanstvu.

Kineska ekonomija nije slika perfekt-nog sistema. Trka za profitom je ohrab-rila spekulacije sa ulaganjima ogromne količine novca u luksuzne stanove i osta-le nekretnine što najveći dio stanovništva ne može da priušti. Kineski radnici se žale budući da sada moraju da plaćaju stano-ve, liječenje, školovanje, sve što je done-davno plaćala država. Uprkos ovome, trenutno kineska ekonomija funkcioniše mnogo bolje od one u SAD i EU. Država može da manevriše sa kreditnim meha-nizmom na način na koji to najbolje od-govara preduzećima i trgovini. Ova ka-rakteristika omogućava kineskoj privre-di da se približi idealu američkog kapi-talizma. Treba se podsjetiti riječi Deng Xiaopinga, vođe Komunističke parti-je Kine, kada je 1978.g., nakon otvaranja Kine stranim investicijama, izjavio da nije važno koje je boje mačka, važ-no je da lovi miševe. Kineska ekonomija danas uspijeva da efikasno motiviše pri-vrednike. Kineski lideri, iako definisani kao komunisti, su veoma zauzeti u stva-ranju kapitalističke ekonomije koja tre-nutno dominira svijetom.

Kada zapadna preduzeća bankrotiraju, prepuštena su sama sebi. No, ako bankro-tiraju banke, onda su građani ti koji plaća-ju gubitke. Svjedoci smo da se danas na taj način spasava Wall Street. Nekada su u kapitalizmu i mala i velika preduzeća mogla da učestvuju na tržištu pod jedna-kim uslovima. Bilo je važno da se poštu-ju pravila zdrave konkurencije. Danas su male privatne prodavnice gotovo isčezle, jer su u međuvrenenu nikli lanci velikih supermarketa. Slično je i sa poljoprivred-nim sektorom koji je u rukama multina-cionalnih korporacija. Jaz između boga-tih i siromašnih je sve širi.

Osnovni elementi zdravog, održivog bankarskog sistema uključuju konkuren-ciju, transparentnost i adekvatnu kontro-lu. Upravo je nedostatak kontrole uzrok globalne ekonomske krize. Jak bankarski sistem sa jedne i njegova kontrola sa dru-ge ne isključuju jedno drugo.

Kinesko rješenje, naspram zapadnog ban-karskog sistema koji je zabilježio mnoga bankrotstva poslednjih godina, nudi kon-trolu banaka a ne samo njihovih dugova. Ovaj vid kontrole u interesu građanstva, u Kini funkcioniše veoma dobro.



manages to efficiently motivate entreprene-urs. The Chinese leaders, although defined as being communists, have been very busy creating a capitalist economy which is cur-rently dominating the world.

When Western undertakings go bankrupt, they are left on their own. When Western banks fail, however, citizens are those who pay for their losses. We are witnesses of such a “rescue mission” for the Wall Street. Small and large enterprises operating in capita-lism used to be allowed to participate in the market under equal terms and condi-tions, The only thing that mattered was to obey the rules of sound competition. Today, small private shops have almost vanished to be replaced by chains of supermarkets. Similar has happened to the farming sec-tor which is now in the hands of multina-tional corporations. The gap between the rich and the poor has been ever-increasing.

The main features of a sound, sustainab-le banking system involve competition, transparency, and appropriate supervision. The lack of the latter was the very cause of the current global crisis. A strong banking system on one hand, and its supervision on the other are not mutually exclusive.

The Chinese solution, as opposed to the Western banking systems that have recor-ded numerous failures over the recent years, offers the supervision of banks and not just their debts. This form of supervision is in the best interest of citizens, and it has pro-ved to be functioning very well in China.

Chinese lessonsIn times when the USA and the EU are spending billions of dollars and euros to save their banking systems and economies, China, as an “economical miracle” mana-ged to “isolate” itself from the rest of the world. While the first two are going through one of the severest recessions since 1930`s, China records an 8% annual growth.

This begs the question of how is this possib-le at the time when economies of other coun-tries are undergoing depression followed by an ongoing decline in consumption? There is nothing even remotely similar happening in any other country, let alone the USA and the EU. How is it possible that the global crisis is not felt in China at all?

The global capital crisis is actually the loan crisis. China has never allowed its banking system to underestimate production. Chinese banks work for the people and not vice ver-sa. Dick Durbin, the US Senator from the Democratic Party recently stated: “And the banks - hard to believe in a time when we‘re facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created - are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place.” China did not allow something like this to its banking system – it did not al-low it to become so powerful to start dic-tating laws. The interest of people of China is always put first. This is one of the reasons why Chinese banks continue disbursing lo-ans to private individuals and enterprises.

The financial sectors of the USA and the EU are on an upward trend, while citizens` living standard is deteriorating, unemploy-ment is rapidly increasing, and banks do not grant loans to citizens.

The Chinese economy is not an image of the perfect system. The race for profit has en-couraged speculations with large investments in luxury apartments and other real estates, which the majority of the population can-not afford. Chinese workers complain be-cause now they have to pay for apartments, medical treatment, education – everything that was paid by the state until recently. In spite of this, the Chinese economy is cur-rently functioning much better than that of the USA or the EU. The state can mano-euvre with credit facilities in the manner be-fitting enterprises and trade. This enables the Chinese economy to come near to the American capitalism ideal. One should be reminded of the words of Deng Xiaoping, the leader of the Communist Party of China, spoken after the China’s opening to foreign investments in 1978, saying that “it does not matter what colour is the cat as long as it catches mice.” Today, the Chinese economy

(WOFE); ■ Joint Ventures Bank (JV); ■ Foreign Bank Branch; Before 2006, fo-

reign banks were allowed to open one branch in the China’s territory. The main novelties introduced in 2006

were as follows: ■ The initial capital required for WOFE

and JV was increased from 1 billion renminbi/yuans (RMB or CHY) (as opposed to 300 million required be-fore the 2006 reform). The minimum capital requirements was raised to 200 million RMB (1 CNY = 0.115141 EUR);

■ Foreign banks can do business witho-ut limitations to their operations and geographical area. Before the reform, foreign banks had been allowed to operate only in 20 big cities in China.

■ The restriction was cancelled with re-gard to a foreign currency deposit re-ceived from one investment bank from abroad not being allowed to ex-ceed 70% of foreign currency assets in China.

In recent years there has been a prog-ressive integration of Chinese and foreign banks: 19 foreign investors bought shares in 16 Chinese banks, thus reaching a 15% share of FDI in total assets of local banks. This process involves the four commercial banks which have commenced the priva-tization process.

The integration enabled foreign banks in China to commercialize their products and services via ever-spreading network of local banks.

One of the provisions of the new Law on Foreign-Funded Banks prescribes the sale of RMB, stipulating that foreign banks may use RMB in their trade with Chinese clients only through fixed depo-sits whereby every transaction must be at least 1 million RMB. Thus this provision restricts the access to foreign banks, lea-ving out a large number of citizens. The high capitalization requirement was es-timated as inconsistent with the WTO requirements. However, China incorpo-rated this provision in order to be able to supervise the financial system and clai-ming that it is fully compliant with the WTO regulations.

The China’s banking system is quality-oriented and aimed at meeting not only the needs of clients regarding standard lending and savings, but also at introdu-cing novelties such as trust and asset ma-nagement that are common in competi-tive markets.

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50

BORBA PROTIV KORUPCIJE

Uprava za antikorupcijsku inicijativu je do sada sprove-la tri kompleksna istraživanja u oblastima: pravosuđe

(mart 2008. godine), lokalna samouprava i privatni sektor (oba 2009. godine). Sva navedena istraživanja nijesu mje-rila percepciju ispitanika, već su imala za cilj funkcionalnu analizu pomenutih sistema. Javnost je obavještavana o re-zultatima na konferencijama za novinare, a rezultate istra-živanja su pratile i preporuke koje su dostavljene nadležnim organima. Preporuke proizašle iz istraživanja su dobar po-kazatelj u kojem pravcu treba usmjeriti buduće aktivnos-ti -represivne, preventivne ili edukativne - kako bi se poja-ve korupcije efikasnije eliminisale u određenim oblastima. Tako npr., preporuke dobijene iz istraživanja u oblasti pri-vatnog sektora su od značaja, između ostalog, u procesu eli-minisanja „biznis barijera“ na državnom i lokalnom nivou.

Ispitivanje javnog mjenja o samoj Upravi (decembar 2009. godine) omogućava da se stekne detaljan uvid u to koliko javnost poznaje njen preventivni rad i kolika je svi-jest javnosti o nivou, oblicima i uzrocima pojave korupci-je. Rezultati ispitivanja Upravi služe za definisanje propa-gandno-preventivnih antikorupcijskih aktivnosti, npr. u kreiranju novih antikorupcijskih kampanja u cilju jačanja javne svijesti o štetnosti korupcije, strateških dokumenata i dr. Podizanje nivoa javne svijesti o značaju borbe protiv ko-

rupcije i podsticanje efikasnijeg učešća građana i institucija u suprotstavljanju toj pojavi, jedan je od prioritetnih zada-taka Uprave za antikorupcijsku inicijativu. Ona je prvi dr-žavni organ koji je realizovao ispitivanje koje pokazuje mišl-jenje građana o sopstvenom radu, odnosno koliko građani imaju povjerenja u naše napore koje preduzimamo u cilju prevencije korupcije.

Ispitivanje javnog mnjenja - „Svijest javnosti o korupciji i upoznatost sa radom Uprave za antikorupcijsku inicijati-vu“ - realizovano je uz finansijsku podršku Misije OEBS-a u Crnoj Gori, a ispitivanje je sproveo CEED Consulting iz Podgorice.

Ispitivanje je sprovedeno u 18 crnogorskih opština, obuhva-tajući tri regiona na uzorku od 1.111 građana, pa se može reći da je uzorak nacionalno reprezentovan. Ispitivanje se sasto-ji iz dva dijela. Prvi dio se odnosi na rezultate koji se odno-se na prepoznatljivost, aktivnosti i povjerenje u Upravu za antikorupcijsku inicijativu, a drugi dio ispitivanja na svijest i znanje o korupciji kod nas.

svijesT i znanje javnosTi o upravi za anTikoruPCijsku iniCijaTivuIz dolje navedenog grafikona se vidi da je 70 odsto ispitanika čulo za Upravu za antikorupcijsku inicijativu, kao i da po-

ispitivanjem javnog mnjenja do preporuka

Istraživanja o obimu, pojavnim oblicima, uzrocima i mehanizmima nastanka korupcije važan je segment u borbi protiv ove negativne društvene pojave. Istraživanje korupcije je jedna od nadležnosti Uprave za antikorupcijsku inicijativu koja se preventivnim sredstvima bori protiv korupcije. Istovremeno, mnoga međunarodna dokumenta kao obavezu propisuju istraživanja o korupciji, pa je to često i preporuka grupe zemalja Savjeta Evrope za borbu protiv korupcije (GRECO). Takođe, istraživanja o korupciji ili ispitivanje javnog mnjenja o ovoj pojavi sprovode i drugi državni organi, organi lokalne samouprave, kao i nevladine organizacije i strane organizacije koje su često specijalizovane za ovu vrstu posla

dr Vesna RatkovićDirektor Uprave za antikorupcijsku inicijativu

U tekstu su prikazani rezultati ispitivanja javnog mnjenja koje je imalo za cilj da ocijeni svijest i znanje javnosti o korupciji, njenom prisustvu i negativnim posljedicama u Crnoj Gori. Istraživanje je takođe pokazalo zadovoljavajući nivo upoznatosti ispitanika sa radom Upravom za antikorupcijsku inicijativu i njenim aktivnostima kao jednom od nadležnih institucija koja ima ključnu ulogu u borbi protiv korup-cije. Nalazi istraživanja će poslužiti za unapređenje postojećih antikorupcijskih kampanja, povećanje po-vjerenja u rad Uprave za antikorupcijsku inicijativu i ostvarivanje boljih rezultata u dijelu prevencije i suzbijanja korupcije u Crnoj Gori.


FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION

The Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative has con-ducted complex research to cover the areas of judiciary

(March 2008), local self-government sector and the private sector (both in 2009). None of these aimed at measuring the respondents’ perception of corruption, but the functio-nal analysis of the aforesaid systems. The public was infor-med of the research results at press conferences, and the re-sult were accompanied with recommendations which were communicated to the relevant authorities. The recommen-dations are good indicators of actions to be pursued in the future - repressive, preventive or educative – in order to eli-minate corruption in certain areas. Thus, for example, re-commendations arising from the research covering the pri-vate sector are important, inter alia, for the process of elimi-nating business barriers both at the country and local level. The public opinion survey on the Directorate itself (December 2009) enabled a detailed insight into the public awareness of the preventive work of the Directorate and the level, forms and causes of corruption. The results obtained serve the Directorate in defining its promotional-preventive an-ticorruption activities, for example the creation of new an-ticorruption campaigns aimed at raising public awareness of detrimental effects of corruption, the preparation of stra-tegic documents, and the like. Raising the public aware-

ness of the importance of fight against corruption and en-couraging the involvement of citizen and institutions in confronting this phenomenon are one of the tasks of the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative. This is the first government authority that has organized a public survey on its own work, that is, on the citizens` confidence in its efforts to prevent corruption. The public opinion survey “Public awareness of corruption and their familiarity with the work of the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative” was carried out with the sup-port of the OSCE mission to Montenegro and conducted by the CEED Consulting from Podgorica. The survey covered 18 municipalities in Montenegro on a sample of 1,111 adult citizens, so it could be said that this is the nationally representative sample. It consisted of two parts, whereby the first involved the recognizing and acti-vities of, and trust in, the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative, and the second part covered the awareness and knowledge of corruption.

PubliC aWareness and knoWledge of The direCToraTe for anTi-CorruPTion iniTiaTive (daCi)Chart 1 shows that 70% of respondents have heard of the DACI, as well as that half of them know of its preventive

from Public opinion survey to recommendationsResearch on the size, forms, causes and mechanisms of corruption is an important segment in the fight against this negative social phenomenon. Research on corruption is one of the competences of the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative (DACI) which preventively acts to fight corruption. In addition, numerous international documents prescribe the obligation of conducting research on corruption, which is also a frequently communicated recommendation of the Council of Europe’s Group of States Against Corruption (GRECO). Research and opinion polls on this phenomenon are also carried out by other government authorities, local governments, non-governmental organisations and other foreign organisations which are often specialized in this kind of activity

Vesna Ratković, PhDDirector of the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative

The text shows the result of the public opinion survey that aimed to assess the citizens` level of aware-ness and knowledge of corruption, its presence and negative consequences in Montenegro. The research also indicates a satisfactory level of the respondents familiarity with the work of the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative as one of the competent authorities playing the key role in the fight against corrup-tion. The research results will serve to improve the existing anticorruption campaigns, raise the public confidence in the work of the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative, and achieve better results in the prevention and suppression of corruption in Montenegro.

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lovina ispitanika prepoznaje njeno preventivno djelovanje. Takav nivo poznavanja rada Uprave govori da građani pre-poznaju korupciju, da je tretiraju kao društveni problem, te da se konstantno povećava broj onih koji odlučuju da je pri-jave. O tome govori i podatak da je u 2009. godini Uprava za antikorupcijsku inicijativu primila 98 prijava o sumnji u postojanje korupcije, a 2008. godine 40. Istovremeno, broj onih koji anonimno prijavljuju korupciju se smanjio u od-nosu na prethodnu godinu.

To je jasan pokazatelj da nivo svijesti u crnogorskom druš-tvu o štetnosti korupcije konstantno raste, što nam daje za pravo da vjerujemo da će i u narednom periodu biti nasta-vljen napredak, koji prema najnovijim izvještajima rele-vantnih međunarodnih organizacija Crna Gora ostvaruje u borbi protiv korupcije. Ispitivanje će biti ponovljeno kra-jem 2010. godine.

Ispitanici koji tvrde da su čuli za Upravu za antikorup-cijsku inicijativu i znaju čime se bavi su u 43,0% slučajeva naveli aktivnosti koje su u njenoj nadležnosti. Svaki drugi ispitanik koji je tvrdio da zna čime se bavi UAI, naveo je barem jednu aktivnost koja nije u njenoj nadležnosti, tj. is-pitanici UAI daju veće nadležnosti od onih koje objektiv-no ima (44,9% ispitanika pogrešno smatra da Uprava ima nadležnost otkrivanje i krivično gonjenje slučajeva korupci-je). Svaki deseti ispitanik (9,8%) navodi da je u nadležnos-ti UAI i disciplinsko kažnjavanje. Iz navedenih podataka se vidi da je stvarno znanje ispitanika o njenim nadležnostima i aktivnostima niže od samoprocijenjenog, te da informaci-ja o nekoj instituciji ne znači uvijek i znanje o njenom radu.

PREPORUKE• U cilju dalje prevencije korupcije, iz ugla nadležnosti Uprave za antikorupcijsku inicija-tivu, a na osnovu rezultata istraživanja, defi-nisane su sljedeće preporuke:• Uprava za antikorupcijsku inicijativu tre-ba da nastavi sa dosadašnjim aktivnostima edukacije i prevencije u borbi protiv korupcije. O aktivnostima UAI potrebno je redovno in-formisati javnost i to putem televizijskih prilo-ga i novinskih članaka. Posebnu pažnju posve-titi edukaciji mlađe populacije kod koje se raz-vija svijest o štetnosti korupcije. • U kontinuitetu informisati javnost o pri-javljenim slučajevima korupcije, po osnovu kojih su preduzete odgovarajuće radnje nad-ležnih organa, te o donešenim pravosnažnim presudama. U komunikaciji treba insistira-ti na “povjerenju”. Transparentnost rada nad-ležnih institucija, otvorenost za komunikaci-ju sa građanima i redovno informisanje o pri-javljenim slučajevima i pravosnažnim presu-dama doprinose stvaranju povjerenja građa-na u nadležne organe. Navedeno će doprinije-ti većem stepenu saradnje građana u prijavlji-vanju konkretnih slučajeva korupcije.• Insistirati na odgovornosti građana koji učestvuju u koruptivnim radnjama, bez obzira ko inicira koruptivnu radnju. Takođe, insisti-rati da svijest o štetnosti i negativnom uticaju korupcije rezultira i konkretnim aktivnostima građana da prijave korupciju i/ili da je sami ne iniciraju. Osim uticaja na svijest građana, UAI mora “slati poruke” i nadležnim organi-ma u kojima se identifikuju koruptivne radn-je. U suprotnom, u fokusu su posljedice, a ne uzroci.• Potrebno je jačati saradnju sa medijima, na način da tačno i pravovremeno informišu o otkrivenim i procesuiranim slučajevima ko-rupcije. Iako mediji prenose važne informacije o aktivnostima UAI i nadležnih državnih or-gana angažovanih u edukaciji i prevencije ko-rupcije, i samim tim utiču na povećanje stepe-na povjerenja građana, građani nemaju po-vjerenja u medije. Drugim riječima, ukoliko bi htjeli da prijave slučaj korupcije, prije bi se odlučili za neposredni kontakt sa nadležnim organima (Uprava policije i UAI) nego za me-dije. U saradnji sa medijima dodatno promo-visati načine za prijavu koruptivnih radn-ji i upoznati javnost sa svim radnjama koje se smatraju koruptivnim ponašanjem.

Grafikon 1: Da li ste čuli za UAI? Da li znate čime se bavi?

Grafikon 2: Navedite aktivnosti Uprave za antikorupcijsku inicijativu?



RECOMMENDATIONS• With a view to preventing corruption and based on the survey results, the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative defined the fol-lowing recommendations:• The Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative should continue with its activities of education and prevention in the fight against corruption. The public should be regularly in-formed of the DACI`s activities via television and newspapers. Particular attention should be given to the education of the young in order to raise their awareness of the detrimental ef-fects of corruption. • Ongoing informing of the public about the reported corruption and the relevant actions taken, including final judgements (res judica-tes). Insist on trust in communication with the public. Transparency in the work of relevant authorities, willingness to communicate with citizens, and regular informing of the public on he reported cases and final judgments will help build up the citizens` confidence in the competent authorities. The aforesaid will con-tribute to better citizens` cooperation in repor-ting concrete cases of corruption. • Insist on the citizens` responsibility when involved in a corruption act, regardless of the party who has initiated it. In addition, insist that the awareness of damaging effects of cor-ruption results in concrete reporting of cor-ruption and/or refraining from initiating it. Moreover, the DACI should “send messages” to the competent authorities in which corruption acts have been detected. Otherwise, the focus would shift from causes to consequences. • It is necessary to strengthen cooperation with the media, as viewed in timely and accu-rate reporting on detected and prosecuted cor-ruption cases. Although the media have been reporting on activities of the DACI and the competent authorities engaged in education on and prevention of corruption, thus increa-sing the citizens` trust, the citizens still do not believe the media. In other words, if they were to report corruption, they would rather do it by directly contacting the relevant authori-ty (Police Administration and DACI) than ad-dress the media. Additionally promote, in coo-peration with the media, manners of reporting corruption and introduce the public to all acti-vities considered corruptive.

activities. This shows us that citizens recognize corruption, treat it as a social problem, and that the number of those de-ciding to report it is on an increase. The latter is supported by the data that the DACI received 98 reports of corrupti-ve acts in 2009, while a year earlier this number was 40. At the same time, the number of anonymous reports of cor-ruption shows the year-on-year decline. This is a clear indicator of the raising awareness of the Montenegrin society of detrimental effects of corruption, which gives us the right to believe that such a progress will continue, as recognized in the latest reports on Montenegro’s fight against corruption which were prepared by relevant in-ternational organisations. The survey will be repeated in 2010.

Some 43.0% respondents claiming that they have heard of the DACI and are familiar with its operations also stated the activities falling within the DACI competence. Every other respondent in this group stated at least one activity which actually falls out of the DACI competence, thus indicating that respondents believe that the Directorate has much gre-ater competences (44.9% wrongly believe that the DACI is in charge of detecting and prosecuting acts of corruption). Every tenth respondent (9.8%) stated that the DACI also deals with disciplinary punishment of disclosed corruption cases. The aforesaid data show that the actual knowledge of the respondents of the Directorate’s competences and ope-rations is lower than that self-assessed and that being awa-re of an institution does not always imply knowing the ac-tual work done by it.

Chart 1: Have you heard of the Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative (DACI)?

Chart 2: What are the activities of DACI?

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Dobar nivo upoznatosti ispitanika sa UAI i njenim nadlež-nostima potvrđuje i podatak da je više od polovine ispitanika (53,4%), koji su čuli za nju, navelo da je ona državni organ. Ipak, sa druge strane, 23 odsto Upravu prepoznaje kao ne-vladinu, a 15,3 odsto kao međunarodnu organizaciju. Iz toga razloga u narednom periodu preventivno-propagandne ak-tivnosti treba usmjeriti na ovu kategoriju ispitanika i poveća-ti njihov stepen upoznatosti sa Upravom i njenim radom.

Grafikon broj 4. pokazuje da glavni izvor informacija o UAI i njenim aktivnostima predstavljaju mediji. Ispitanici, koji su upoznati sa nadležnostima, za Upravu su čuli putem TV-a (69,0%) i novina (13,0%). Manji procenat ispitanika se upoznao sa UAI putem drugih kanala informisanja. Ovo su svakako važni podaci koji upućuju na načine osmišljavan-ja budućih antikorupcijskih kampanja i plasiranja propa-gandno-preventivnih antikorupcijskih poruka.

Grafikon 3: Šta je Uprava za antikorupcijsku inicijativu?

Grafikon 4: Gdje ste prvi put čuli za Upravu za antikorupcijsku inicijativu?

Grafikon 5: Koji su glavni razlozi zbog kojih ne biste prijavili korupciju?



What confirms that the respondents are well-informed of the DACI and its activities is the data that more than a half of them who have heard of it (53.4%) stated that it is a go-vernment authority. On the other hand, 23% and 15.3% of the respondents recognize the DACI as a non-governmen-tal and international organisation, respectively. That is why the future preventive-promotional activities should target this category of respondents in order to raise their knowled-ge of the DACI and its operations.

Chart 4 shows that the main source of information on the DACI and its activities is the media. The respondents awa-re of the DACI`s responsibilities have heard of it via televi-sion (69.0%) and newspapers (13.0%). A smaller percenta-ge of respondents have heard of it via other media. This is certainly very important information as it will help in wor-king out the future anticorruption campaigns and commu-nicating promotional-preventive messages.

Chart 4: Where have you first heard of DACI?

Chart 5: What are the main reasons for not reporting a corruption?

Chart 2: What are the activities of DACI?

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Ispitanici koji ne bi prijavili korupciju, kao glavni razlog ističu nedostatak povjerenja da će nadležni orga-ni postupiti po prijavi (38,4%). Za razliku od prethodnih istraživanja, strah od osvete je jedan od najmanje važnih razloga za neprijavljivanje korupcije. Takođe, umiješanost u korupciju ne bi uticala na odluku ispitanika da je prijave.

svijesT i Znanje javnosTi o koruPCiji u Crnoj goriUprava za antikorupcijsku inicijativu je u prethodnom pe-riodu preduzela niz propagandno-preventivnih aktivnosti koje su imale za cilj upoznavanje građana sa problemom korupcije. Realizovane aktivnosti su imale pozitivne efek-te, jer su ispitanici u stanju da prepoznaju krivična djela sa elementima korupcije.

Ispitanici u najvećem procentu (45,7%) korupciju defi-nišu kao primanje/davanje mita i zloupotrebu službenog položaja (38,8%). U nešto manjem obimu ispitanici iden-tifikuju pronevjeru, nesavjestan rad u službi, nepotizam i odavanje službene tajne kao aktivnosti sa obilježjima ko-rupcije. U narednom periodu treba nastaviti sa kampan-jama za građane u kojima se govori o koruptivnim krivič-nim djelima i načinima za njihovo otkrivanje i gonjenje.

Pored činjenice da definišu korupciju i njene pojavne oblike, ispitanici imaju svijest o njenom uticaju na eko-nomski razvoj. Tako, prema mišljenju 35,1% odsto ispi-tanika prisustvo korupcije ima značajnog uticaja na eko-nomski razvoj. Tačnije, 3,84 je procijenjeni nivo uticaja na

skali od 1 do 5, gdje 1 znači „nema nikakvog uticaja“, a 5 „ima značajnog uticaja“. Nivo obrazovanja, ukupni mje-sečni prihod domaćinstva i godine starosti ispitanika uti-ču na svijest o uticaju korupcije na razvoj ekonomije. Sa rastom navedenih demografskih i socio-ekonomskih ka-rakteristika raste i svjesnost ispitanika o tom problemu. Značajan uticaj korupcije na ekonomski razvoj poseb-no izdvajaju ispitanici koji se bave privatnim biznisom. Navedeni rezultati pokazuju da je visoko razvijena svi-jest građana o tome da korupcija značajno utiče na eko-nomski razvoj. Međutim, potrebno je da znanje rezulti-ra aktivnostima koje će doprinijeti borbi protiv korupci-je, u smislu da prijave slučajeve korupcije kada imaju in-formacij eo tome ili da sami ne nude mito.

Iz navedenog se vidi spremnost ispitanika da u direktnom kontaktu sa predstavnicima nadležnih organa prijavljuju korupciju.

Jedan od ciljeva realizacije ispitivanja bio je da se utvrde očekivanja građana kada je u pitanju suzbijanje korupcije. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da građani u narednom periodu očekuju povećanje broja pravosudnih presuda i povećanje bro-ja prijavljenih slučajeva korupcije. Uopšteno govoreći građani smatraju da primjena represivnih, ali i brojnih preventivnih mjera može doprinijeti unaprjeđenju borbe protiv korupcije.

Grafikon 1: Prema Vašem mišljenju, šta je korupcija?

Grafikon 2: Uticaj korupcije na ekonomski razvoj

Grafikon 3: Da se odlučite da prijavite korupciju obratili bi se, ili u koga imate najviše povjerenja?

Grafikon 4: Vaša očekivanja o unaprijeđenju borbe protiv korupcije u Crnoj Gori?



The respondents who wouldn’t report corruption spe-cify the lack of trust that relevant authorities would re-act on the report as the main rationale for this (38.4%). Unlike prior surveys, the respondents in this one consi-dered fear of revenge as one of the least important rea-sons for not reporting corruption. In addition, their in-volvement in corruption would not affect their decision to report corruption.

aWareness and knoWledGe of CorruPTion in monTenegroThe Directorate for Anti-Corruption Initiative has taken numerous promotional-preventive activities over the re-cent period aiming to make the citizens aware of the cor-ruption problem. These activities yielded positive results since the respondents were able to recognize criminal of-fences involving corruption. Most of the respondents (45.7%) define corruption as rece-iving/offering bribe and the misuse of public office (38.3%). These are followed by embezzlement, dishonest discharge of duties, nepotism and revealing of professional secret. The upcoming period should be characterized by public cam-paigns on corruption offences and the manner of their de-tection and prosecution.

In addition to defining corruption and its forms, the res-pondents were aware of its impact on economic growth. Thus 35.1% considered that corruption has a significant impact on economic development. To be more preci-se, 3.84% is the estimated level of effect, whereby on the scale from 1 to 5, 1 means “no impact” and 5 means “has

significant impact”. Education, total monthly income of a household, and the age of respondents affect the level of awareness of corruption impact on economy. Moving upward in the aforesaid demographic and socio-econo-mic characteristics raises the awareness of respondents on the given issue. The respondents being private busi-nessmen were the ones who singled out corruption to have a significant impact on economic growth. Therefore, the aforesaid results indicate a high level of the citizens` awareness of such an impact. However, this should re-sult in activities to contribute to the fight against corrup-tion, implying that citizens should report corruption ca-ses when knowing about them or to refrain from offe-ring bribe themselves.

The chart above shows that respondents are willing to di-rectly report corruption to the relevant authorities.

One of the objectives of the survey was to identify the citi-zens` expectations with regard to suppressing corruption. The results showed that these expectations mainly involve a higher number of final verdicts and reported cases of cor-ruption, Generally, citizens consider that repressive and nu-merous preventive actions could contribute to the impro-vement of the fight against corruption.

Chart 1: In your opinion, what is corruption?

Chart 2: Impact of corruption on economic growth

Chart 3: Who do you trust most to report corruption to?

Chart 4: What are your expectations regarding the improvement of the current situation related to corruption in Montenegro?

SPRJEČAVANJE PRANJA NOVCA jun 2010 | :Bankar

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jun 2010 | :Bankar

58 softverska rješenja kao šansa

Pranje novca je sofisticirana kriminalna aktivnost izu-zetno vještih pojedinaca, koji su uvijek korak ispred

onih koji rade na sprječavanju te aktivnosti, pa mjere i radnje koje se preduzimaju nikad nijesu dovoljne te ih tre-ba stalno usavršavati.

Perači novca pronalaze, izmišljaju sve novije tehnike da operu novac, a i države usavršavaju svoje sisteme za borbu protiv njih. Postoje mnoga softverska rešenja koja mogu da otkriju, a možda i spriječe potencijalne šeme pranja novca.

U SAD je na snazi propis koji predviđa zamrzavanje sred-stava bilo koje organizacije koja je sumnjiva ili pak pojedi-naca za koje postoji sumnja da su uključeni u pranje nov-ca, a sa ciljem da se „izgladni” kriminalno-teroristička mre-ža. Tamo je još od 2001. godine uvedena dodatna odredba kojom se nalaže „da finansijske institucije moraju da upo-zore nadležne regulatorne institucije na bilo koju neobič-nu bankarsku aktivnost”.

Do sada su izrečene mnoge primjedbe zbog malog bro-ja pravosnažnih presuda u Crnoj Gori u vezi pranja nov-ca, pri čemu se ne uzima u obzir da broj nije jedino mje-rilo kvaliteta.

Poslednja faza niza kriminalnih radnji kao što su: pro-met narkotika, primanje i davanje mita, nelegalna trgovi-na oružjem i ljudima, izbjegavanje plaćanja poreza, prone-vjera novca i druge, je „pranje novca” stečenog činjenjem takvih radnji. Fenomen „pranje novca” označava kompli-kovan proces koji obavezno na svom početku ima „prljav” novac koji treba „oprati”. Upravo zbog tog, „prljavog”, nele-galno i nezakonito stečenog novca, otpočeo je proces pranja, kako bi se legalizovao i bio upotrijebljen za potrebe lju-di koji su ga i stvorili. Njegovo čišćenje, tj. „pranje” odvija

Pranje novca je sofisticirana kriminalna aktivnost izuzetno vještih pojedinaca, koji su uvijek korak ispred onih koji rade na sprječavanju te aktivnosti, pa mjere i radnje koje se preduzimaju nikad nijesu dovoljne te ih treba stalno usavršavati. Perači novca pronalaze, izmišljaju sve novije tehnike da operu novac, a i države usavršavaju svoje sisteme za borbu protiv njih. Postoje mnoga softverska rešenja koja mogu da otkriju, a možda i spriječe potencijalne šeme pranja novca. U SAD je na snazi propis koji predviđa zamrzavanje sredstava bilo koje organizacije koja je sumnjiva ili pak pojedinaca za koje

postoji sumnja da su uključeni u pranje novca, a sa ciljem da se „izgladni” kriminalno-teroristička mreža. Tamo je još od 2001. godine uvedena dodatna odredba kojom se nalaže „da finansijske institucije moraju da upozore nadležne regulatorne institucije na bilo koju neobičnu bankarsku aktivnost”. Do sada su izrečene mnoge primjedbe zbog malog broja pravosnažnih presuda u Crnoj Gori u vezi pranja novca, pri čemu se ne uzima u obzir da broj nije jedino mjerilo kvaliteta.

mr Marko VukićevićUprava za sprječavanje pranja novca i finansiranja terorizma

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„Svakom djelu je bitan završetak, ma kakav mu bio tok i početak”

William Shakspeare

june 2010 | :Bankar PREVENTION OF MONEY LAUNDERING59


software solutions as an opportunityMoney laundering is a sophisticated criminal activity of highly skilled individuals, who are always one step ahead of those who work on the prevention of this activity, therefore imposed measures and actions are never sufficient and should be constantly improved. Money launderers find and invent updated techniques to launder money, and states also improve their systems to combat them. There are many software solutions that can detect, and possibly prevent potential money laundering schemes. USA adopted regulation which stipulates freezing of assets of any organization that is suspicious or individuals suspected to be involved in money laundering, and in order to „starve“ criminal and terrorist networks. Since 2001, they have introduced an additional provision which prescribes that “banking institutions are required to warn the competent regulators of any unusual banking activity”. So far, many objections were imposed because of a small number of final judgments in Montenegro in relation to money laundering, whereby the number is not considered as the only measure of quality.

M.A. Marko Vukicevic Administration for the Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

Money laundering is a sophisticated criminal acti-vity of highly skilled individuals, who are always

one step ahead of those who work on the prevention of this activity, therefore imposed measures and actions are never sufficient and should be constantly improved. Money launderers find and invent updated techniques to launder money, and states also improve their systems to combat them. There are many software solutions that can detect, and possibly prevent potential money laun-dering schemes.

USA adopted regulation which stipulates freezing of as-sets of any organization that is suspicious or individuals sus-pected to be involved in money laundering, and in order to „starve“ criminal and terrorist networks. Since 2001, they have introduced an additional provision which prescribes that “banking institutions are required to warn the compe-tent regulators of any unusual banking activity”.

So far, many objections were imposed because of a small number of final judgments in Montenegro in relation to mo-ney laundering, whereby the number is not considered as the only measure of quality.

The last phase in a series of criminal activities such as nar-cotics turnover, receiving and giving bribes, illegal arms and human trafficking, tax evasion, embezzlement and other, represents “money laundering” acquired by commission of such acts. The phenomenon of “money laundering” re-presents a complicated process that at the beginning requ-ires “dirty money” that has to be “laundered”. Due to that “dirty” illegally and unlawfully acquired money, the pro-cess of laundering commenced, in order to be legalized, and used for the needs of people who created it. Its clea-

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“Ending of any action is important, regardless its course and beginning“

William Shakespeare


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jun 2010 | :Bankar

60se kroz seriju finansijskih transakcija, koje ga na kraju pre-tvaraju u „čist”, legalan kapital. Cilj cijelog procesa pranja je da se obavi mnoštvo transakcija (da se što više „zamrsi”, zakomplikuje, da se mnogo puta transformiše, pretvori iz jedne valute u drugu, usitni...) da se ne bi otkrilo njegovo pravo porijeklo. Postoji veliki broj definicija pranja novca, ali sve su one u suštini iste: govore o procesu pretvaranja nezakonitih prihoda, stečenih kriminalnim aktivnostima, u sredstva koja imaju privid legalnog porijekla. Pranje nov-ca podrazumijeva uključivanje novca stečenog vršenjem kriminalnih radnji u regularne novčane tokove. Postupak pranja novca odvija se uglavnom u tri faze, koje se ne mogu jasno razgraničiti, jer se ponekad međusobno preklapaju. Najlakše ga je otkriti u prvoj fazi to jest fazi ulaganja ili pla-siranja (placement). U drugoj fazi prikrivanja ili raslojava- nja (layering), novac koji je uložen na račun u nekoj banci se nizom transakcija prebacuje sa računa na račun, ili pak više računa u raznim bankama. Treća faza, tj. faza integra-cije ili prožimanja (integration) je poslednja i u njoj se no-vac uključuje u legalne tokove, tj. ulaže se u zakonite po-slove. Na kraju ove faze novac je „čist”, „opran” te ga je naj-teže i otkriti jer je promijenio svoj prvobitni oblik (usitn-jen, promijenjena valuta, kupljena neka nekretnina i slično).

kriminalCi ProTiv državeKriminalci koriste sve raspoložive metode, tehnike i mogu-ćnosti za pranje sredstava dobijenih nelegalnim aktivnosti-ma, i iz dana u dan ih mijenjaju, usavršavaju i prilagođavaju načinu života u savremenom tehnološki razvijenom druš-tvu. Državni organi koriste niz kontraobavještajnih izvora u pokušaju da spriječe aktivnosti mafije, a takođe i stvara-ju normativne pretpostavke za uključivanje svih činilaca u institucionalni sistem za borbu protiv pranja novca. Koje će se tehnike i metode upotrebljavati prilikom pranja nov-ca zavisi od inovativnosti i imaginacije onih koji ga peru, ali i od sistema zaštite u nekoj državi. Bilo kako bilo sve mafi-je imaju jedan jedini cilj da prikriju nezakonito i „prljavo” porijeklo novca koji se pere.

Za uspješnu borbu protiv pranja novca, najznačajniji su: prihvatanje svih relevantnih međunarodnih standarda, izgradnja unutrašnjeg sistema borbe, razmjena iskustava i saradnja sa državama, prvenstveno iz okruženja, tj. subjekti-ma iz tih država koji su uključeni u borbu protiv ove pojave.

Pranje novca podriva tržišnu ekonomiju, narušava po-litičku stabilnost, demokratsku strukturu zemlje, nepo-voljno utiče na finansijsko tržište, kao i na najvažnije od-rednice za uspješno funkcionisanje ekonomije u cjelini. Pranjem novca država je oštećena ne samo finansijski, već se nekažnjavanjem ovih aktivnosti bitno smanjuje njena sposobnost da zaštiti društvene interese, kao i interese po-jedinaca koji posluju u zakonskim okvirima. Osim toga, ako bi ovakve kriminalne radnje poprimile veće razmjere, onda bi građani izgubili povjerenje u državu, a i opala bi njihova motivisanost za poštovanje i sprovođenje zakona.

Tek kad građani shvate da pranje novca i slične pojave di-rektno utiču na kvalitet njihovog života, kroz usluge koje im pruža država, počeće da štite svoje interese i interese druš-tva, poštovanjem zakona i plaćanjem poreza.

Kao što je poznato država finansira i održava ključ-ne ustanove za građane: zdravstvene, obrazovne, saob-raćajnu infrastrukturu, socijalne, upravo iz svog budže-

ta. Taj budžet se puni sredstvima koje ona ima od: priho-da od poreza preduzeća, poreza na lična primanja zapo-slenih, naplate carina na uvoz robe... Zato, sve što pred-stavlja nelegalne finansijske tokove, zbog kojih dolazi do pranja novca, predstavlja opasnost za državu, jer nijesu obuhvaćeni poreskom politikom prikupljanja prihoda, od kojih ona obnavlja svoj budžet. Svaki euro koji završi u privatnim džepovima, a ne u državnoj kasi, automat-ski znači manje sredstava za kvalitetno pružanje uslu-ga svim građanima. To znači manje sredstava za bolni-ce, domove zdravlja, škole, izgradnju i popravku pute-va, za penzije, sudstvo...

Postavlja se pitanje: kako Crna Gora, njen državni sistem i svi finansijski segmenti reaguju i rešavaju ovaj veliki problem?

ČeTiri Crnogorske insTiTuCije ProTiv „ PeraČa”U crnogorskom nacionalnom sistemu za sprječavanje pran-ja novca postoje četiri veoma bitne institucije, koje narav-no imaju različite nadležnosti, zadatke i odgovornosti. Prva karika u tom lancu je Uprava za sprječavanje pranja novca i finansiranja terorizma i ona u direktnoj interakciji sa finan-sijskim tržištem dolazi do podataka o sumnjivim transakci-jama koje analizira, upotpunjuje i sa njima u koliko ocijeni da je opravdano i potrebno servisira policiju, koja dalje na-stavlja istražne radnje i sve to prosleđuje tužilaštvu. Na kraju u crnogorskom nacionalnom sistemu za borbu protiv pran-ja novca su sudovi kojima tužilaštvo procesuira te slučajeve.

Nacionalni sistem za sprječavanje pranja novca u Crnoj Gori je uredno postavljen i dobro funkcioniše, stalno se usa-vršava i prilagođava potrebama. Što se tiče pravne regula-tive u ovoj oblasti, na snazi je Zakon o sprječavanju pran-ja novca i finansiranja terorizma i on pruža zadovoljavajući okvir za funkionisanje Uprave za sprječavanje pranja novca i finansiranja terorizma kao administrativnog oblika finan-sijsko obavještajne službe. Ovaj zakon je samo jedan dio za-konskog okvira protiv pranja novca, jer je na snazi i Krivični zakon kao i Zakon o krivičnom postupku. Zakon o sprječa-vanju pranja novca i finansiranja terorizma usklađen je sa preporukama FATF-a (Međunarodne organizacije za kon-trolu i sprječavanje pranja novca, 40 + 8 + 1 preporuka).

Mali broj presuda za krivično djelo pranja novca je posle-dica otežane dokazivosti ovog kriminalnog djela, ali i toga



ning i.e. “laundering” is performed through a series of fi-nancial transactions, which eventually converts it to clean, legal capital. The goal of the entire laundering process is to conduct many transactions (to „tangle” as much as possible, complicate, transform many times, convert from one cur-rency to another, defragment...) so its true origin could not be discovered. There are a lot of definitions of money laun-dering, but they are essentially all the same: they describe the process of converting illegal incomes, obtained throu-gh criminal activities to funds that have the illusion of legal origin. Money laundering involves inclusion of money ob-tained by performing criminal activities into regular cash flows. The process of money laundering takes place main-ly in three phases, which cannot be clearly demarked sin-ce sometimes they overlap. It is the easiest to be discove-red in the first phase i.e. the phase of investment or pla-cement. In the second phase of concealment or layering, the money is placed on a bank account through series of transactions transferred from account to account or multi-ple accounts in different banks. The third phase, i.e. phase of intertwining (integration) is the last and it includes pla-cing money into legal channels, i.e. investments in lawful business. At the end of this phase money is „clean“, „laun-dered“ and therefore the most difficult to be discovered be-cause it changed its original shape (defragmented, conver-ted currency, purchased real estate, etc.).

Criminals againsT The sTaTeCriminals use all available methods, techniques and possi-bilities for laundering of funds obtained through illegal ac-tivities, and they change it daily, improve and adapt it to the way of life in the modern, technologically developed socie-ty. The state authorities use a number of counter intelligence sources in an attempt to prevent the activities of mafia, and also create normative assumptions for inclusion of all stake-holders in the institutional system for prevention of money laundering. What are the techniques and methods used in money laundering depends on innovation and imagination of those who launder it but also on the protection system of a country. Anyway, all mafias have a single goal which is to conceal illegal and „dirty“ origin of laundered money.

For a successful combat against money laundering, the most important is the acceptance of all relevant internatio-nal standards, building of a system of internal combat, the exchange of experiences and cooperation with other co-untries, primarily from the region, i.e. entities from tho-se countries who are involved in the combat against this phenomenon.

Money laundering undermines the market economy, vio-lates political stability, democratic structure of the country, adversely affects the financial markets, as well as the most important determinants for the successful functioning of the whole economy. Money laundering affects country not only in a financial sense, but the impunity of these activi-ties significantly reduces its ability to protect the social in-terests and the interests of individuals who operate within the legal framework. In addition, if such criminal activi-ty expands, the citizens would lose confidence in the state, and lose their motivation to respect and implement the law.

Only when people realize that money laundering and si-milar phenomenon directly affect their quality of life throu-

gh services offered by the state, they will begin to protect their interests and the interests of society, by respecting the law and paying taxes.

As it is known, the state finances and maintains key facili-ties for the citizens: health, education, transport infrastruc-ture, social facilities, precisely from its budget. This budget is being filled from the sources that state receives from: en-terprise income tax, tax on personal income of employees, collection of customs on imports of goods... Therefore, all illegal financial flows, which occur due to money launde-ring, represent a danger to the state, because they are not covered by tax policy of collecting revenues, from which the state renews its budget. Every euro that ends up in pri-vate pockets, and not in state cash register, it automatically means less funds for the provision of quality services to all citizens. That means fewer funds for hospitals, health cen-tres, schools, construction and repair of roads, pensions, the jurisdiction …

The question is: how Montenegro, its public adminis-tration and all financial segments respond and resolve this great problem?

four monTeneGrin insTiTuTions againsT “launderers”In Montenegrin national system for the prevention of money laundering, there are four very important institutions, which, by all means, have different competencies, tasks and respon-sibilities. The first link in the chain is the Administration for the prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing and it is in direct interaction with the financial market‘s in-formation on suspicious transactions, which are being ana-lyzed and completed and if justified and necessary delivered to police, which continues investigation actions and forwar-ds it to the prosecution. Courts are placed at the end of the Montenegrin national system for combating money laun-dering where prosecution processes these cases.

National system for prevention of money laundering in Montenegro is duly set up and functions well, is con-stantly improved and adjusted to the needs. Regarding the legal regulations in this area, the Law on the Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing is in force and it provides a satisfactory framework for functioning of the Administration for the Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing as an administrative form of financial intelligence. This Law is just one part of the legal framework against money laundering, beside the Criminal Code and the Criminal Proceedings Law. Law on the Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing complies with the recommendations of the FATF (Financial Action Task Force, 40 + 8 + 1 recommendation).

A small number of judgments for criminal act of money laundering results from difficult proving of this criminal of-fense, and the fact that in the investigation process is much easier to obtain an evidence of other crimes, such as turnover of narcotics, money embezzlement, tax evasion and other.

Money laundering is a large business, or rather the real industry. The money is laundered all around the world, and the largest part of laundering is done in developed coun-tries. What methods will be used during the criminal at-tempt of money laundering depends on the available me-chanisms, requests of those who order laundering, as well


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jun 2010 | :Bankar

62što se u iztražnom procesu mnogo lakše dolazi do dokaza drugih krivičnih djela, kao npr. prometa narkotika, prone-vjere novca, utaje poreza i dr.

Pranje novca je veliki biznis, ili bolje rečeno prava indus-trija. Novac se pere svuda u svijetu, s tim što se najveći dio pranja obavlja u razvijenim zemljama. Koje metode će kri-minalci koristiti prilikom pokušaja pranja novca zavisi od raspoloživih mehanizama, zahtjeva onih koji naručuju pro-ces pranja, kao i stepena razvijenosti sistema zaštite od ove pojave u određenoj državi.

Softverska rešenja prevazilaze ranije sisteme jer u potpu-nosti analiziraju sve finansijske podatke koji su povezani, uz kontrolu čak i manjih transakcija, omogućavaju praćenje i otkrivanje „ponašanja” računa. Mnogi skandali u bankama u vezi sa pranjem novca, u svijetu, samo su pospješili dono-šenje strožijih propisa i zakona iz ove oblasti. U svakoj zemlji dozvoljavanje da sumnjive transakcije prođu neprimijeće-ne, ima ozbiljne posledice, za bilo koju finansijsku instituci-ju, uključujući štetu na račun reputacije, kapitalizacije tržiš-ta i na percepciju i lojalnost potrošača. Da bi finansijske in-stitucije mogle da se izbore sa složenošću ove problematike, upotrebljavaju se sve novija rešenja informatičke tehnologi-je i savremenija softverska rešenja, a sve u cilju praćenja ino-vativnih tehnika pranja novca. Dakle „državna regulativa za otkrivanje pranja novca zahtijeva sofisticiranije informaci-one sisteme koji će pružiti veće poznavanje klijenata, njiho-vog finansijskog stanja i aktivnosti vezanih za račun”. (Rože Klasens, Sprečavanje pranja novca, Beograd, 2006. str.79.). Da bi borba protiv pranja novca bila efikasnija, finansijs-kim institucijama i bankama preporučuje se i prihvatanje procedure „Upoznaj svog klijenta”- (Know your customer).

Softverska rešenja moraju biti tako razvijena da mogu ot-kriti sumnjive finansijske transakcije identifikovanjem spe-cifičnih pojedinaca ili grupa koje mogu biti ili su u to umi-ješane. Postoje i informatička rešenja koja mogu pratiti sva-ku pojedinačnu finansijsku transakciju i pri tome otkriti sve što je neuobičajeno i odvojiti transakcije koje mogu predsta-vljati rizik za neku finansijsku instituciju. Takođe ovi sistemi u mogućnosti su da se prilagođavaju, uoče i razumiju nove šeme za pranje novca čim bi se pojavile. Softverski sistem iz oblasti sprječavanja pranja novca čine četiri komponente, koje su potpuno usaglašene sa državnim zakonima svih zemalja u svijetu (članica Egmont-grupe tj. Svjetske organizacije finan-sijskih obavještajnih službi, čiji je član i Crna Gora od juna 2005. godine), iz razloga što sve one imaju slične zakone koji su usaglašeni sa preporukama FATF-a, kao i Konvencijom UN.

Osnovne komponente softverskog sistema su: ■ procjena rizika klijenta (za potrebe istrage), ■ mjere transakcionog rizika (otkrivanje transakcija sa

većim rizikom), ■ tehnologija otkrivanja ponašanja ili prepoznavanje

šema koje su sumnjive, ■ alati koji služe i pomažu za upozoravanje i izvješta-

vanje.

Glavna komponenta za otkrivanje šeme pranja novca je proc-jena rizika klijenta, tj. posjedovanje detaljnih informacija o ra-čunu klijenta, a koje se otkrivaju prilikom otvaranja računa.

Druga komponenta su mjere transakcionih rizika, to jest mogućnost identifikovanja transakcije koja predstavlja rizik za potencijalne aktivnosti pranja novca. Transakcije koje se

ocjenjuju kao rizične, različite su od organizacije do orga-nizacije što zavisi kojim se poslom one bave. Npr. drugačiji je rizik vezan za transakcije nekog osiguravajućeg društva od rizika vezanog za transakcije u bankama.

Tehnologija otkrivanja ponašanja ili prepoznavanje šema koje su sumnjive, još jedan je važan aspekt softverskih siste-ma za sprječavanje pranja novca. Ključ tehnologije otkrivanja ponašanja je mogućnost da identifikuje sumnjive događa-je i cjeline koje vremenom nastaju, tako što ih odvaja od sva-kodnevnih događaja i transakcija, da bi izdvojio ciljano po-našanje. Sastoji se iz više komponenti i to: scenario (kombi-nacija uslova), granice (prijavljivanje najrelevantnijih rezul-tata nadležnima), uzbuna (skreće pažnju korisniku na posto-janje pranja novca ili neke druge prevare), pregledni period (period od jednog dana do 12 mjeseci za praćenje ponašanja),

„Usavršeni softverski sistemi pružaju finansijskim instituci-jama nekoliko alata koji pomažu u procesu obrade i izvješta-vanja, a koja su neophodna u usaglašavanju i poštovanju regu-lativa”.(Rože Klasens, Sprečavanje pranja novca,str.109.). Prvi alat je menadžment slučaja. Da bi bile usaglašene sa držav-nom regulativom finansijske institucije treba da čuvaju do-kumenta određeni vremenski period. Pošto obim ove doku-mentacije može biti izuzetno velik, softverski sistem pruža mogućnost skeniranja, slikanja i elektronskog čuvanja doku-menata koji svjedoče o transakcijama. U slučaju revizije, lako je pronaći određeni dokumenat, jer softversko rešenje pruža lak pristup informacijama. Zbog svega ovoga svaki softverski sistem treba posmatrati kao vitalni dio bilo kog strategijskog plana finansijskih institucija, za sprečavanje pranja novca.

oPrani novaC „kiseonik Za TeroriZam”Pojam protivzakonito stečeni novac, označava novac ste-čen kriminalnim radnjama, pa je samim tim za očekiva-ti da će one postati još unosnije i sofisticiranije. Stvaranje takvog novca ne prestaje, samo što se konstantno mijenjaju tehnike prikrivanja, jer oni koji ga proizvode imaju mnogo više mašte i inventivnosti nego većina nas. Zato se u borbu protiv ove pojave moraju uključiti svi društveni činioci jer ovo krivično djelo ugrožava ekonomske, pravne, političke, kulturne i sve druge značajne vrijednosti društva i države.

Koliko je bitno spriječiti ovu pojavu govori činjenica da iz nje proizilaze druga krivična djela, tj. iz ove pojave finansi-ra se terorizam. Znači, ovaj novac, „prljavi novac” je „kise-onik za terorizam”. Zbog toga je The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) donijela listu od 40 preporuka, koje se od-nose na sprječavanje pranja novca, a kasnije ih proširila sa još 8 specijalnih koje se odnose upravo na finansiranje te-rorizma, novcem od kriminala, i devetom koja se odnosi na prenošenje novca i hartija od vrijednosti preko granice. Sve zemlje, članice Evropske unije i sve one koje su se opredi-jelile za prihvatanje standarda koji važe u EU svoje zakone baziraju na ovim preporukama. Novi Zakon o sprječavan-ju pranja novca u Crnoj Gori, stupio je na snagu decembra 2007. godine i usklađen je sa trećom direktivom EU i do-punjen inoviranim obavezama koje se odnose na spreča-vanje finansiranja terorizma. Sam Zakon daje pojam, de-finiciju pranja novca, radnje, načine, postupke, oblike nje-govog ispoljavanja kao i mjere i postupke ovlašćenih sub-jekata ili obveznika u cilju otkrivanja, sprječavanja i suz-bijanja djelatnosti fizičkih i pravnih lica vezanih za prikri-vanje nelegalno stečenog novca i drugih imovinskih koristi.



as the degree of development of the system for protection from this phenomenon in a particular state.

Software solutions exceed the earlier systems because they fully analyze all financial data related to control of even smal-ler transactions, enable the monitoring and detection of ac-count „behaviour“. Many scandals in banks in relation with money laundering only enhance adoption of stricter regu-lations and laws in this area in the world. In every country, allowing suspicious transactions to pass as undetected has serious consequences for any financial institution, including damage to the account of reputation, market capitalization and the perception and customer loyalty. New information technology solutions and modern software solutions are used so that financial institutions could cope with the com-plexity of this problem, all in order to follow the innovative techniques of money laundering. Therefore, the „state regu-lation for the detection of money laundering requires more sophisticated information systems that will provide deeper knowledge about clients, their financial condition and acti-vities related to the account.“ (Roger Claessens, Prevention of Money Laundering, Belgrade, 2006, page 79). To provi-de more efficient combat against money laundering, finan-cial institutions and banks are recommended to accept also the procedure named „Know your customer“.

Software solutions must be developed in a manner which enable detection of suspicious financial transactions by identi-fying specific individuals or groups who may be or are involved in it. There are IT solutions that can track every single finan-cial transaction, and thereby discover all unusual and separa-te transactions that may impose risk to a financial institution. In addition, these systems are able to adapt, spot and under-stand new scheme for money laundering as soon as it would appear. Software system in the field of prevention of money laundering consists of four components, which are fully com-pliant with state laws of all countries in the world (a member of the Egmont Group- i.e. World Organization of Financial Intelligence Units, whose member is also Montenegro since June 2005), because they all have similar laws that comply with the recommendations of the FATF and the UN Convention.

Basic components of the software system are: ■ Risk assessment of a client (for investigation), ■ Transactional risk-measures (disclosure of transactions

with higher risk), ■ Behaviour-detection technology and recognition of

schemes that are suspicious, ■ Tools that serve and help the warning and reporting

The main component for detection of scheme of money laundering is risk assessment of the client, i.e. possession of detailed information about the client‘s account, which is revealed during opening of the account.

The second component consists of transactional risk me-asures of i.e. possibility of identifying transactions that re-presents a risk for potential money laundering activities. Transactions that are rated as risk are different from orga-nization to organization depending on which operations they perform. For example: Different risk is associated with transaction of an insurance company from the risks related to transactions in banks.

Behaviour-detection technology or recognition of suspi-cious schemes is another important aspect of software sys-

tems for the prevention of money laundering. Key of tech-nologies for behaviour detection is the ability to identify suspicious events and units that occur over time, in a man-ner which separates them from daily events and transac-tions in order to extract the target behaviour. It consists of several components as follows: scenario (a combination of conditions), limits (reporting the most relevant results to the authorities), alarm (draws attention of a user to existence of money laundering or other fraud), and review period (peri-od from one day to 12 months for tracking the behaviour).

„Advanced software systems provide financial instituti-ons with several tools to help in processing and reporting, which are necessary to adjust to and respect the regulati-ons.“ (Roger Claessens, Prevention of Money Laundering, page 109). The first tool is the case management. Financial institutions should keep the documents for a specific pe-riod of time in order to be harmonized with government regulations. Since the scope of this documentation can be very large, software system provides possibilities of scan-ning, imaging and electronic storage of documents that testify about the transactions. In case of revision, it is easy to find a certain document, because a software solution of-fers easy access to information. Bearing this in mind, eve-ry software system should be considered as a vital part of any strategic plan for financial institutions for prevention of money laundering.

laundered moneY „oxYgen for Terrorism“The concept of illegally obtained money refers to money ear-ned by criminal activities, and it can be expected that the-se activities will become more lucrative and sophisticated. The creation of such money does not end, only techniques to conceal constantly change, because those who produce it have much more imagination and inventiveness than most of us. Therefore, combat against this phenomenon must in-clude all social factors because this criminal act endangers economic, legal, political, cultural and other important va-lues of society and the state.

How important is to prevent this occurrence, explains the fact that it stipulates other criminal acts, i.e. terrorism is financed by this phenomenon. It means that this money, „dirty money“, is the „oxygen for terrorism.“ Therefore, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) created a list of 40 re-commendations, related to prevention of money laundering, which is later expanded with 8 more special recommenda-tions relating to the terrorism financing, money from cri-me, and ninth recommendation referring to the transfer of cash and securities across the border. All countries, mem-bers of the European Union and those that have decided to accept the EU standards, base their own laws on these re-commendations. The new Law on the Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing in Montenegro came into force in December 2007 and is in compliance with the Third EU Directive and it is amended with innovated ob-ligations related to the prevention of terrorism financing. The Law itself gives the concept, definition of money laun-dering, activities, methods, procedures, manifestation forms as well as measures and procedures of authorized entities or taxpayers, in order to detect, prevent and suppress activities of natural persons and legal entities related to the conceal-ment of illegally obtained money and other property profits.

jun 2010 | :Bankar

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DOBROVOLJNI PENZIONI FONDOVI U CRNOJ GORI jun 2010 | :Bankar

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Danas, razvijene i zemlje u razvoju, po-red postizanja primarnog cilja penzi-

onog sistema, a to je adekvatna, održiva, dovoljna i diversifikovana penzija – teže i sekundarnim ciljevima koji podrazumije-vaju ekonomski rast i razvoj. To je poseb-no značajno za zemlje u tranziciji za koje penzijska sredstva predstvljaju izuzetno lik-vidna i dugoročna novčana sredstva, čije investiranje predstavlja značajan podsticaj za razvoj finansijkih tržišta (nove instituci-je sistema, novi instrumenti, inovacije i sl.). Penziona reforma, kao jedno veoma kom-pleksno pitanje, zahtijeva značajne prom-jene i u pravcu smanjenja sive ekonomi-je, razvoja finansijkih tržišta i otvorenos-ti zemlje prema ostalim finansijskim tržiš-tima, povećanja zaposlenosti, kao i nivoa produktivnosti koji bi trebao da obezbije-di zadovoljavajuću stopu povraćaja kapitala kod kapitalizovanog penzijskog osiguranja.

Po ugledu na Čile koji je 1981. godine izvršio privatizaciju, odnosno likvidaci-ju javnog penzionog fonda i zamijenio ga sistemom obaveznih privatnih fundiranih fondova Svjetska banka je formulisala svoje penzione reforme – sistem sa tri osnovna stuba (prednosti su istaknute u publikaciji „Averting The Old Age Crisis - 1994“). U najkraćem model tri stuba penzijskog osi-guranja podrazumijeva: ■ Prvi stub - Javni obavezni - obavezno

penzijsko i invalidsko osiguranje na osnovu tekućeg finansiranja;

■ Drugi stub – Obavezni privatni - oba-vezno penzijsko osiguranje na osnovu individualne kapitalizovane štednje i

■ Treći stub – Dobrovoljni privatni - dobrovoljno penzijsko osiguranje na osnovu individualne kapitalizovane štednje. Zakonom o penzijskom i invalidskom

osiguranju Crne Gore, koji je stupio na snagu 01. januara 2004. godine, stvorena je osnova za formiranje trostubnog penzijskog modela, kojim se uspostavio novi pravni okvir koji vodi cjelovitoj reformi sistema. Zakonom je propisano da sistem penzij-skog i invalidskog osiguranja u Crnoj Gori obuhvata sva tri stuba, pri čemu je prvi stub penzijskog sistema tj. obavezno penzijsko i invalidsko osiguranje na osnovu tekućeg finansiranja, u potpunosti uređen ovim za-konom, način funkcionisanja trećeg stuba je uređen posebnim zakonom, dok drugi stub čeka nova zakonska rješenja.

Privatne penzije predstavljaju vrstu šted nje, odnosno, investicije za starost. Za razli-ku od državnih penzija (prvi stub), koje funkcionišu po principu tekućeg finansi-ranja (pay-as-you-go), gdje sadašnji zapo-sleni izdvajaju dio bruto plate za sadašnje penzionere (redistributivna funkcija - sis-tem generacijske solidarnosti), kod dobro-voljnog penzionog osiguranja (treći stub) se novac kapitalizuje na ličnim računima, u koje vlasnik u svakom trenutku ima uvid. U perspektivi je uvođenje drugog stuba,

tj. obaveznog privatnog penzijskog osi-guranja, kojim bi država obavezala poslo-davce da dio bruto zarade uplaćuju zapo-slenima na privatne račune. Ovdje se javlja problem prelaznog perioda, tzv. tranzicio-nog troška, tj. načina njegovog finansiran-ja. Sistem sa sva tri stuba, koji bi zaokružio reformu penzijskog sistema, već funkcioni-še u Hrvatskoj, Makedoniji, Mađarskoj i sl.

Stupanjem na snagu Zakona o dobro-voljnim penzionim fondovima 30.decem-bra 2006. godine („Sl.list RCG“, br.78/06 i 14/07) uređeni su uslovi za osnivanje druš-tava za upravljanje penzionim fondovima i organizovanje dobrovoljnih penzionih fondova na osnovu individualne kapitali-zovane štednje, kao i njihovo poslovanje. Atlas Grupa je, u saradnji sa Savezom sa-mostalnih sindikata Crne Gore i Unijom poslodavaca Crne Gore, osnovala prvo

ličnim ulaganjem za sigurniju starost

Reforma penzijskog osiguranja predstavlja jedan od najvećih izazova 21. vijeka. Mnoge zemlje, među kojima je i naša, moraju da se prilagode starenju stanovništva i redefinišu svoj penzioni sistem osiguranja, kako bi isti zadržale na zadovoljavajućem nivou i osigurale finansijsku održivost sistema. Modeli penzijskih reformi (posebno) u zemljama u tranziciji zavise od nasljeđa prethodnih penzijskih sistema, ekonomskog okruženja, socijalne politike i budućih demografskih kretanja. Međutim, ono što im je zajedničko jeste vezivanje uplaćenih doprinosa za isplate penzija pojedincima, prenošenje dijela rizika sa države na pojedinca i povećanje slobode izbora u odlučivanju o prihodima u starosti

Mr Danijela LaketićIzvršni direktor Društva za upravljanje ATLAS PENZIJA


VOLONTARY PENSION FUNDS IN MONTENEGROjune 2010 | :Bankar65

ličnim ulaganjem za sigurniju starost

Personal investments – a Way to the more secure old agePension system reform represents one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Many countries, including ours, have to adjust their systems due to the aging of population and redefine their pension insurance systems. This needs to be done in order to maintain the existing system on the satisfactory level and to ensure financial sustainability of the system. Pension reforms models (particularly) in transition countries, depend on the heritage of previous pension systems, economic environment, social policy and future demographic trends. However, the common thread is the use of paid contributions for pension payments to individuals, transfer of part of the risk from the state to individuals and increased freedom of choice in deciding about revenues in the old age

MA Danijela Laketić, Executive Director of the ATLAS PENSIONS Management Company

In addition to the fulfillment of primary objective of the pension system, which is

adequate, sustainable, sufficient and diver-sified pension, developed countries and co-untries in development are nowadays also aiming to achieve secondary objectives that imply economic growth and development. This is particularly important for transition countries for which pension funds represent very liquid and long term monetary assets, whose investment represent a significant in-centive for development of financial markets (new institutions of the system, new instru-ments, innovations, etc.). Pension reform, as a very complex issue, requires significant changes concerning the reduction of grey economy, development of financial mar-kets and opening of the country for other financial markets, increase of employment, as well as productivity level, which should ensure satisfactory rate of return of capital for capitalized pension insurance.

Following the example of Chile, which in 1981 had privatized its pension fund, that is liquidated the public pension fund and replaced it with the system of compulso-ry privately funded funds, the World Bank has formulated its pension reforms – a sys-tem with three basic pillars (benefits are been stated in the publication “Averting The Old Age Crisis - 1994“). In brief, three pillar model of the pension insurance con-sists of the following: ■ First pillar - Public compulsory –

compulsory pension and disability in-surance base don current financing;

■ Second pillar – Private compulsory – compulsory pension insurance based on individual capitalized savings, and

■ Third pillar – Voluntary private – vo-luntary pension insurance based on individual capitalized savings. Law on Pension and Disability Insurance

of Montenegro, which entered into force on January, 1, 2004, created a basis for establis-hing a three-pillar pension model, which has introduced a new legal framework for a comprehensive reform of the system. Law stipulates that the pension and disability insurance system in Montenegro includes all three pillars, where the first pillar of the pension system, i.e. compulsory pension and disability insurance based on current financing, has been entirely regulated by this Law, while the manner of functioning of the third pillar has been regulated by the separate law. Second pillar will be regula-ted by new legislation.

Private pensions represent a form of sa-vings, i.e. investment for old age. In con-trast to the state pensions (first pillar), which are functioning on the principle of current financing (pay-as-you-go), where present employees are earmarking part of their gross salaries for present pensioners (redistributive function – generation so-lidarity system), with voluntary pension insurance (third pillar) money is capitali-

zed on personal accounts and the owner can have an insight into these accounts at any moment. It is planned to introduce the second pillar, i.e. compulsory private pen-sion insurance, through which the state wo-uld oblige employers to pay part of gross salaries to private accounts of employees. There is a problem related to the transi-tion period, so called transition costs, i.e. manner of its financing. The system, with all three pillars, which would finalize the pension system reform, is already functio-ning in Croatia, Macedonia, Hungary, etc.

With entering into force of the Law on Voluntary Pension Funds, on December 30, 2006 (“Official Gazette of RoM”, no.78/06 and 14/07) requirements were set for the establishment of the pension funds mana-gement company and organizing volun-tary pension funds based on individual

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DOBROVOLJNI PENZIONI FONDOVI U CRNOJ GORI jun 2010 | :Bankar

66crnogorsko društvo za upravljanje dob-rovoljnim penzionim fondovima ATLAS PENZIJA i prvi crnogorski dobrovoljni penzioni fond PENZIJA PLUS. Ovim je građanima Crne Gore data mogućnost da dopune državnu penziju, da ulažući sred-stva diverzifikuju rizike uz istovremeno ostvarenje prinosa na tako uložena sred-stva, odnosno, osiguraju primanja u starosti.

Dobrovoljni penzioni fondovi se, u skla-du sa važećom crnogorskom zakonskom re-gulativom, osnivaju radi prikupljanja nov-ca uplaćivanjem doprinosa članova fonda, a koji će biti investiran sa ciljem povećanja vrijednosti imovine fonda. Zakon daje mo-gućnost da fondovi budu otvorenog i zatvo-renog tipa. Otvoreni fond je onaj kome može pristupiti bilo ko, dok će se u zatvoreni moći učlaniti određena grupa ljudi: samo zaposle-ni, članovi sindikata ili drugih organizacija.

Dobrovoljnim penzionim fondom upra-vlja specijalizovana menadžment kompani-ja koja je dobila dozvolu za rad od strane crnogorske Komisije za hartije od vrijed-nosti, a čiji minimalni osnivački kapital ne može biti ispod 250.000 EUR. Menadžment kompanija naplaćuje proviziju za upravljanje fondom.

Šema koja je predstavljena najbolje pri-kazuje kompleksnost upravljanja jednim Društvom za upravljanje, odnosno, dob-rovoljnim penzionim fondom. Penzioni biznis zahtijeva visok stepen odgovornos-ti (OECD preproučuje primjenu koncep-ta odogovorne osobe i odgovornosti - fi-duciary duty). Osobe odgovorne za od-ređene elemente penzionog fonda mora-ju da imaju odgovarajuće znanje, vještine i iskustvo da bi mogle da obavljaju poslo-ve na kvalitetan način.

Uplaćeni doprinos u fond knjiži se na lični račun člana i to je, po zakonu, nje-gova imovina. Novac se može povući na-kon što član navrši 50 godina života i to na dva načina - da se najviše 30% ispla-ti u gotovom novcu na dan ispunjenja uslova utvrđenih Pravilima i Ugovorom o članstvu, a ostatak u mjesečnim ili pe-riodičnim anuitetima u roku ne dužem od tri godine, ili da se iznos prenese na društvo koje se bavi obezbjeđivanjem is-plate penzija. U slučaju privremenog ili stalnog prestanka uplata doprinosa, sred-stva ostaju trajno vlasništvo člana fonda i kapitalizuju se do trenutka sticanja prava na njihovu isplatu, gdje sav prinos pripa-

da članovima fonda. U slučaju smrti čla-na fonda akumulirana sredstva su pred-met nasleđjivanja.

Fond funkcioniše tako što se uplate do-prinosa konvertuju u obračunske jedini-ce, pri čemu se vrijednost jedne jedinice objavljuje svakog dana u sredstvima jav-nog informisanja, a ista je reprezent vri-jednosti imovine koju pojedinac ima u fondu. Na taj način uplatioci doprino-sa imaju informaciju o tome koliko nji-hova imovna vrijedi na taj dan, tako što množe broj obračunskih jedinica koje su konvertovane sa vrijednošću jedinice na određeni dan.

O tome se izdaje Potvrda o udjelu, kao dokaz o uplati sredstava. Znači, jedan trans-parentan i otvoren vid poslovanja, gdje po-jedinac svakog dana može da ima uvid u vrijednost svoje imovine. Na primjer, mak-simalna ostvarena vrijednost obračunske jedinice fonda Penzija Plus iznosila je 27. januara 2010. godine 1,1723 €, što znači da je u prvoj godini poslovanja ostvaren pri-nos na uložena sredstva i rast vrijednosti od preko 17% .

Dobra investiciona politika je jedan od uslova za efikasno funkcionisanje fonda. Dobrovoljni penzioni fondovi uglavnom imaju konzervativnu strategiju ulaganja (za razliku od drugih vrsta investicionih fondova), gdje se prvenstveno vodi raču-na o sigurnosti imovine fonda, a potom o profitabilnosti ulaganja. Investicione od-luke se donose na osnovu pažljivih i de-taljnih analiza u skladu sa načelom si-gurnosti koje podrazumijeva da harti-je od vrijednost u koje se investira ima-ju visok kreditni rejting, zatim načelom likvidnosti da se te hartije mogu lako ku-piti i prodati i na kraju načelom disper-zije rizika tj. da je portfelj fonda sači- njen od različitih vrsta i emitenata harti-ja od vrijednosti.

Znači, društvo za upravljanje je „u oba-vezi“ da upravlja sredstvima fonda na na-čin da članovima fonda obezbijedi dugo-ročnu sigurnost i optimalan rast u odno-su na preuzeti rizik. Naravno, rizik je ne-izbježna komponenta u poslovanju sva-ke savremene finansijske institucije, jer je za njen opstanak i napredovanje preuzi-manje određenog rizika, skoro neophod-no. Kako ne postoji metod koji bi u po-tpunosti eliminisao rizik u poslovanju, uspostavljaju se pravila u cilju svođenja potencijalnih rizika na najmanju mogu-ću mjeru, a strategija ulaganja se usmje-rava ka odgovarajućoj diversifikaciji rizi-ka, uz istovremeno ostvarenje profitabil-nosti ulaganja.


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capitalized savings, as well as their opera-tions. Atlas Group, in cooperation with the Independent Trade Union of Montenegro and Employers Union of Montenegro, has established first Montenegrin society for management of voluntary pension funds

- ATLAS PENZIJA and first Montenegrin voluntary pension fund - PENZIJA PLUS. This has given an opportunity to the ci-tizens of Montenegro to supplement the state pension, to diversify risks by inves-ting, and at the same time realizing reve-nue from invested funds i.e. securing re-venue for the old age.

Voluntary pension funds have been established in accordance with existing Montenegrin legislation, in order to col-lect money from the payments of contri-butions by fund members, which will then be invested in order to increase the value of fund’s assets. Law envisages that the funds can be open or closed. Open fund is a fund that anyone can be a member of, while a closed fund can have as its mem-bers only a specific group of people – only those that are employed, trade union mem-bers or members of other organizations.

Voluntary pension fund is managed by a

specialized management company, which has obtain a license from the Securities Commission of Montenegro and who-se minimum equity cannot be lower than 250.000 EUR. Management company is charging commission for managing the fund.

The scheme above represents in the best way the complexity of managing a Management company, i.e. voluntary pen-sion fund. Pension business requires a high degree of accountability (OECD recom-mends the use of the concept of the acco-untable person and accountability - fidu-ciary duty). Persons accountable for spe-cific elements of the pension fund should have adequate knowledge, skills and expe-rience in order to perform their duties in a quality manner.

Contributions paid to the fund are bo-oked on the personal account of the mem-ber, and represents, according to the law, his property. Money can be withdrawn af-ter a member becomes 50 years old, in two ways – maximum amount of 30% can be paid in cash on the day on which the requi-rements form the Rules and Agreement on Membership have been fulfilled, while the remaining amount can be paid in monthly

or periodical annuities in the period which doesn’t exceed three years, or the amount can be transferred to the company which is dealing with the payment of pensions. In case of temporary or permanent cessa-tion of contribution payments, funds rema-in a permanent property of the member of the fund and are capitalized until the mo-ment of acquiring rights to the payment, when all the amount goes to the members of the fund. In case of the death of a fund member, accumulated assets are a subject to succession.

Fund is functioning in such way that the contribution payments are converted to calculation units, where the value of one unit is published daily in the media, and it represents the value of assets which an in-dividual has in the fund. Therefore, payers of contribution can be informed on the va-lue of their assets on a particular date by simply multiplying the number of calcula-tion units, which have been converted, with the value of the unit on the specific date.

Share certificate is issued as a proof of paid funds. Therefore, this is a transpa-rent and open operational form, where a person can have a daily insight in the va-lue of his assets. For example, maximum realized calculation unit value of Penzija Plus (Pension Plus) fund amounted 1,1723 € on January 27, 2010, which means that the revenue realized from invested funds and the increase in value in the first year of business amounted over 17% .

Good investment policy is one of the pre-conditions for efficient functioning of the fund. Voluntary pension funds are mainly having a conservative investment strategy (as opposed to other types of investment funds), primarily taking into account the security of funds assets, and then the pro-fitability of investments. Investment deci-sions are made based on prudent and de-tailed analysis in compliance with the se-curity principle which implies that securi-ties in which the assets are invested have a high credit rating, liquidity principle – that those securities can be easily purchased and sold, and finally, risk dispersion principle, i.e. fund’s portfolio consists of different ty-pes and issuers of securities.

Therefore, management company is “ob-liged“ to manage fund assets in a manner that will ensure to the fund members long-term security and optimal growth com-pared to the assumed risk. Naturally, risk is an unavoidable component of operati-ons of every modern financial institution, since risk taking is almost necessary for its survival and development. Since there is

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DOBROVOLJNI PENZIONI FONDOVI U CRNOJ GORI

Zakonom je predviđeno da se sredstva uplaćena u dobrovoljni penzioni fond (uplaćeni doprinosi članova) mogu ulaga-ti u obveznice, bankarske depozite, akcije, državne zapise i druge kratkoročne hartije koje izdaje država, u dugoročne obvezni-ce koje izdaju kompanije kojima se trgu-je na našim berzama i tržištima zemalja Evropske Unije i OECD-a, pri čemu se strogo vodi računa o limitima ulagan-ja koje predstavljaju jednu vrstu sigurnos-ti za članove fonda.

Dodatnu sigurnost pruža kontrola i nad-zor nad poslovanjem dobrovoljnih penzio-nih fondova od strane crnogorske Komisije za hartije od vrijednosti i Kastodi ban-ke, odvojeno vođenje sredstava Društva i Fonda, a tu su i pozitivna iskustva zemal-ja u tranziciji, (kako iz neposrednog okru-ženja tako i šire), kao i iskustva razvijenih zemalja koja mogu pomoći da se izbjegnu određeni problemi. Trenutno na crnogor-skom tržištu kapitala postoji materijal za investiranje koji uključuje pojedine hartije od vrijednosti na kojima može da se zara-di i do 15-20% na godišnjem nivou, uz mi-nimalan rizik (poput obveznica korisnika fonda PIO RCG, stare devizne štednje, de-vizne štednje van Crne Gore i sl.).

Član dobrovoljnog penzionog fonda se postaje potisivanjem ugovora o članstvu i prvom uplatom. Ono što je dobro jeste mogućnost da članovi fonda budu svi za-interesovani bez ograničenja - nisu bitne godine, radni staž, nema min i max izno-sa uplate, i sl. jedino ograničenje se odno-si na isplatu koja ne može biti prije navr-šenih 50 godina života. Ovo je dugoročna investicija, pri čemu je potrebno vrijeme za ostvarenje značajnijeg prinosa na ulo-žena sredstva, tako da je sa uplatama ne-ophodno početi što ranije, čak i u slučaju uplate simboličnih iznosa.

Ekonomska kriza je i dalje dio naše sva-kodnevice. Smanjena je ukupna likvidnost sistema, evidentno je odsustvo (stranih) in-vestiora, koje dovodi do smanjenja aktiv-nosti na finansijskom tržištu, prometi i ci-jene na berzama prilično niski, a i građani Crne Gore nisu dovoljno edukovani kada su u pitanju dobrovoljni penzioni fondo-vi, pa bi i na tom planu trebalo intenzivi-rati aktivnosti od strane pojedinih insti-tucija države.

Da bi dobrovoljni penzioni fondo-vi funkcionisali na pravi način potreb-no je pored formalnih, stvoriti i niz ne-ophodnih materijalnih uslova, prije sve-

ga u oblasti poreske politike, tj. pore-za na dohodak fizičkih lica, gdje bi se uveo institut poreskih olakšica na upla-te dobrovoljnih penzionih doprinosa. Na taj način bi se stimulisali poslodavci da uplaćuju doprinose za svoje zaposle-ne, jer do određenog iznosa ne bi plaća-li porez. Usvajanjem poreskih olakšica na uplate doprinosa u dobrovoljne pen-zione fondove bi se značajno doprinije-lo unapređenju i afirmaciji trećeg stuba penzionog osiguranja i penzionoj refor-mi u Crnoj Gori uopšte.

Komparativnom analizom sistema dobro-voljnih penzionih fondova zemalja u tran-ziciji primijećeno je da gotovo sve države koje su u svoje sisteme uvele dobrovoljne penzione fondove, imaju poreske olakši-ce na uplaćene doprinose svojih građana. Ovakvim statusom uplaćenih doprinosa u dobrovoljni penzioni fond, stimulisan je ovaj vid prikupljanja sredstava i njihovo investiranje radi obezbjeđenja privatnih penzija za članove dobrovoljnih penzio-nih fondova.

Na primjer, u Srbiji je (pored toga što su uvedene) iznos poreskih olakšica ne-koliko puta uvećavan. Tako je u februaru 2009. godine Izmjenama Zakona o pore-zu na dohodak građana, maksimalna ne-oporeziva uplata u dobrovoljne penzijske fondove u Srbiji sa 3.303. dinara poveća-na na 3.528 dinara. Poslodavci su tako dobili mogućnost da povećaju iznos do-prinosa koja uplaćuju za svoje zaposle-ne, a da su oslobođeni od plaćanja po-reza na dohodak građana i doprinosa za obavezno socijalno osiguranje, do sume od 3.528 dinara.

Planiranje prihoda u starosti je dugo-ročni cilj, a kako svi želimo da sačuva-mo komforan način života za sebe i svo-ju porodicu, to su nam potrebni dodatni prihodi. Što se ranije počne sa štednjom, penzija će biti veća jer sredstva imaju više vremena da se uvećavaju. Ne treba potcje njivati značaj koji ranije započeta štednja može da ima po ukupan prihod, jer ako se početak pomjeri za samo nekoliko go-dina, proces štednje se završava sa znat-no manjom sumom novca.

Štednja za starost može biti jedna od najznačajnijih investicija u životu, s obzi-rom da već danas činimo nešto za svo-ju budućnost. Sigurno je da će doći vri-jeme kada nećemo biti u mogućnosti da radimo i doprinosimo, a novac će nam biti neophodan, tako da ulaganje u dob-rovoljne penzione fondove vidim kao je-dan od načina da svoju budućnost učini-mo izvjesnijom!

Dobrovoljni penzioni fondovi, kao vrsta investicionog fonda, služe za prikupljanje doprinosa i njihovo investi-ranje radi obezbeđenja privatnih penzija. Predstavljaju jedan od kritičnih finansijskih stubova modernog druš-tva, uplate se zasnivaju na principu dobrovoljnosti i funkcionišu nezavisno od obaveznog penzionog osigu-ranja (prvog stuba). Uloga dobrovoljnog penzionog fon-da je da se putem investiranja prikupljenih doprinosa obezbijedi očuvanje, odnosno, uvećanje njihove vrijed-nosti, a time i iznos privatnih penzija. Treći stub omogućava zaposlenima i onima koji to nisu (poljoprivrednici, domaćice, studenti i sl.) da sami, ne-zavisno od države, uplaćuju određene iznose na posebne lične račune u dobrovoljnim penzionim fondovima. Te uplate imaju tretman dugoročne štednje (investiranja) i obezbeđuju dopunu prihoda u budućem vremenu. Bolja informisanost i edukacija stanovništva, uz stimulativ-ne i podsticajne mjere države, ali i uz povećanje životnog standarda, su preduslovi za dobro funkcionisanje trećeg stuba u Crnoj Gori.


VOLONTARY PENSION FUNDS IN MONTENEGRO

no method that would entirely elimina-te operational risk, rules are established in order to minimise potential risks, whi-le investment straegy is oriented towards the adequate diversification of risk, with simultaneous realization of investments profitability.

The Law envisages that the assets paid in pension fund (paid contributions of mem-bers) can be invested in bonds, bank depo-sits, shares, treasury bills and other short term securities issued by the state; long term bonds issued by companies traded on local stock exchanges and markets of EU and OECD countries, strictly conside-ring the limits of investments that repre-sent a form of security for fund members.

Additional security is ensured by con-trol and supervision of voluntary pen-sion fund’s operation by the Securities Commission of Montenegro and Kastodi banka (Custody bank) separate manage-ment of Company and Fund’s assets, as well as positive experiences from transi-tion countries (neighboring and other), and experiences from developed coun-tries that can help in avoiding specific problems. Material for investment cur-rently exists on the Montenegrin capital market, which includes specific securities on which 15 – 20% can be made on the annual level, with a minimum risk (bond of the users of Montenegrin Pension and Disability Insurance Fund, frozen foreign currency savings, foreign currency savings outside Montenegro, etc.).

Person can become a member of a vo-luntary pension fund by signing the mem-bership agreement and with the first pay-ment that he makes. It is good that mem-bers of the fund can be all interested per-sons, with no limitations regarding age, work experience, minimum and maxi-mum payments, etc. The only limitation concerns payment, which cannot be done prior to the 50 years of age. This is a long term investment, where it takes time to re-alize significant return on invested assets, therefore payments should start as ear-ly as possible, even in symbolic amounts.

Economic crisis is still part of our eve-ryday life. General liquidity of the system has been decreased, absence of (foreign) investors is evident, leading to reduced activities on financial market, turnover and prices on stock markets are pretty low and citizens of Montenegro are not sufficiently educated regarding volunta-ry pension finds, thus specific govern-ment institutions should intensify acti-vities in that regard.

For the proper functioning of voluntary pension funds, in addition to formal con-ditions, several material conditions should be created, primarily in the area of tax po-licy, i.e. personal income tax, where tax re-liefs should be introduced for the payment of voluntary pension contributions. This would encourage employers to pay contri-butions for their employees, as they would not have to pay taxes up to the certain amo-unt. Adoption of tax reliefs for payment of contributions to voluntary pension funds, would have a significant impact on the de-velopment and affirmation of the third pil-lar of pension insurance and pension re-form in Montenegro in general.

Comparative analysis of the volunta-ry pension funds in transition countries showed that almost all countries that have introduced voluntary pension funds in their systems have tax reliefs for paid contribu-tions of their citizens. Such status of con-tributions paid to the voluntary pension fund stimulates this form of asset collec-tion and their investment in order to pro-vide private pensions for the members of voluntary pension funds.

In Serbia, for example, amount of intro-duced tax reliefs has been increased seve-ral times. Thus, in February 2009, with the Changes of the Law on Citizens Income Tax,

maximum nontaxable payment to volun-tary pension funds in Serbia has been in-creased from 3.303 dinars to 3.528 dinars. Employers now have the option to incre-ase the amount of contributions that are paid to employees, and were exempt from paying citizens income tax and contribu-tions for compulsory social insurance up to the amount of 3.528 dinars.

Planning of revenues for the old age is a long term objective, and as we all aim to maintain a comfortable life style for our-selves and our families, we need additio-nal revenue. The earliest we start with sa-vings, pension will be higher, because as-sets will have more time to increase their value. We should not underestimate the importance of early saving for the overall revenue, because if we postpone the start of saving for even couple of years, saving process will end with significantly lower amount of money.

Saving for the old age can be one of the most important investments in life, since we are doing something today for our fu-ture. Time will definitely come when we will not be able to work and contribute, but money will be indispensable, therefo-re, I see the investment in voluntary pen-sion funds as one of the ways to make our future more certain.

Voluntary pension funds, as a form of investment fund, serve for collecting contributions and their investment in order to provide private pensions. They represent one of the key financial pillars of modern society. Payments are based on the voluntary principle and funds are functioning independently form compulsory pension in-surance (first pillar). Role of voluntary pension fund is to ensure protection and increase of the value of collec-ted contributions and therefore amounts of private pen-sions through invesments. Third pillar enables to the employees and other persons (farmers, housewives, students, etc) to pay certain amo-unts to specific personal accounts in voluntary pension funds, independently from the state. These payments are treated as long term savings (investments) and ensu-re additional revenue in future. Better information and education of citizens, together with state incentives and the increase of living standard, are preconditions for the good functioning of third pillar in Montenegro.

MARKETING U OSIGURANJU jun 2010 | :Bankar

70

Marketing mora da identifikuje, proceni i odabere mogućnosti izlaska na tržište i po-stavi strategije za ovladavanje ako ne i do-minaciju na ciljnim tržištima. Marketing u osiguranju podrazumeva celokupnost mera osiguravajućeg društva koje su usredsređe-ne ka širenju portfelja osiguranja i sticanju što većeg učešća na tržištu i tome primere-nog dobitka. Te mere se ogledaju u plani-ranju, usaglašavanju i nadziranju brojnih radnji usmerenih ka prodaji usluga na sa-dašnjim i novim tržištima, odnosno osi-guranicima.

Na tržištu osiguranja postoji konkurenci-ja u kojoj bolje prolaze osiguravajuće kom-panije koje znaju da se prilagode tržištu. Zbog toga je primena savremene marke-ting koncepcije u osiguravajućim društvi-ma nužnost jer, marketing označava na-čin mišljenja i poseban pristup rešavanju tržišnih problema. Donošenjem tehnič-ko-stručnih osnova, pravila i tarifa započi- nje marketing osiguranja, a završava se nji-hovom realizacijom na tržištu osiguranja.

Veoma je bitno pratiti kretanje nacional-nog dohotka, razvoj pojedinih privrednih delatnosti kao i sklonost stanovništva ka štednji. Potrebno je pratiti politiku cena, kamatnih stopa i poreza, obraćati pažnju na životni standard stanovništva, inflaciju, kao i na ostale faktore koji utiču na dono-šenje ispravnih odluka u poslovanju osi-guravajućih kompanija.

soPsTveni „ćilim“Zadatak marketera je da sprovede marke-ting u praksi. Prvi korak u tome predstavlja prihvatanje sistemskog pristupa u pružan-ju usluga potrošačima. Marketing planski proces se sastoji od sledećih koraka: ■ prikupljanje informacija o spoljnom

okruženju, i unutrašnjoj organizaciji,

identifikovanje značajnih snaga i slabosti organizacije i mogućnosti i pretnji spolja,

formulisanje osnovnih pretpostavki o ključnim determinantama marketing uspeha,

spuštanje na zemlju tržišnih ciljeva or-ganizacije koji su zasnovani na prikuplje-noj informaciji, SWOT analizi i stvorenim pretpostavkama i formulisanoj strategiji,

pronalaženje detaljnih planova i progra-ma za ostvarenje ciljeva.

Postoji samo jedan marketinški put do uspeha – mora da se satka sopstveni, jedin-stveni ćilim od marketinških kvaliteta i ak-tivnosti. Profesor Majkl Porter sa Harvarda smatra da preduzeće zapravo i nema stra-tegiju, ako sprovodi iste aktivnosti koje sprovode i konkurenti, samo nešto bolje. Operativna efikasnost nije isto što i snažna strategija. Porter smatra da preduzeće ima snažnu strategiju kada postigne da se zna-čajno razlikuje od konkurentske strategije.

Funkcije marketinga moraju obuhvatati sve resurse i aktivnosti koje imaju neposre-dan uticaj na uspostavljanje, održavanje i jačanje odnosa sa korisnicima osiguranja.

Poslovno okruženjeTržište osiguranja predstavlja deo ukupnog tržišta i obuhvata nekoliko grupa učesnika,

specifičnostimado uspjeha

Poznavanje motiva i ponašanja osiguranika je polazna osnova za donošenje kvalitetnih odluka o nastupu nove osiguravajuće kompanije sa novim proizvodima osiguranja kakva je Atlas Life. Pri oblikovanju marketing strategije treba najveću pažnju posvetiti onom instrumentu prema kom članovi ciljnog segmenta pokazuju najveći stepen osetljivosti. Glavni motiv osiguranika je zaštita od rizika ljudi i imovine. Osiguranje doprinosi satisfakciji tri bazične potrebe: 1) potreba za bezbednošću, 2) potreba za štednjom 3) odgovaranje pravnim obavezama propisanim od strane države. Pokretači kupovine su i brojni pokretači psihološke i sociološke prirode. Usmeravanje pažnje na prateće karakteristike proizvoda je rezultat spoznaje da osiguranik kupuje imidž, marku, a ne (samo) proizvod. Koji će motivi (racionalni ili emotivni) biti dominantni pri donošenju odluke o kupovini zavisi kako od same prirode proizvoda tako i od društvenog okruženja, psiholoških osobina ličnosti, njihovog prethodnog iskustva i znanja, itd. mr Lepa ĐurovićAtlas Life

BANKAR €

Postoje preduzeća koja čine stvari mogućim; preduzeća koja posmat-raju događaje sa strane i ona koja se pitaju šta se to dogodilo. Ako ne promenimo pravac, verovatno ćemo završtiti tamo odakle smo i krenuli.

Filip Kotler

june 2010 | :Bankar INSURANCE MARKETING 71

by means of specific Characteristics to a success

Marketing must identify, assess and choose the opportunities for going into the market, and establish the strategies to master, if not dominate the target mar-kets. Marketing in insurance understands a set of measures undertaken by an insu-rance company focused on extending the insurance portfolio, acquiring the highest possible share in the market and the rela-ted profit. Those measures are reflected in planning, alignment and supervision of numerous activities directed to the sale of services in the current and new markets, that is to the insurants.

The insurance market is competitive and more favorable for the companies that know how to adapt to the market. The applica-tion of a modern marketing concept by the insurance companies is therefore a ne-cessity because marketing stands for a way of thinking and offers a special approach to resolving the market issues. Insurance marketing starts with the adoption of tech-nical and professional basis, rules and ta-riffs, whereas it ends by their implemen-tation at the insurance market.

It is very important to monitor the mo-vements relating to national income, spe-cific business activities and the populati-on’s tendency towards saving. It is neces-sary to monitor the policy of pricing, in-terest rates and taxes, pay attention to the standard of living of the population, infla-tion and other factors that have an influ-ence on making the right business decisi-ons by the insurance companies.

oWn “CarPeT”The task of a marketing agent is to imple-ment the marketing policy in practice. The first step in this direction is to adopt a sys-temic approach in providing services to the customers. The marketing planning pro-

cess includes the following steps: ■ collection of information about the

environment and inner organization;Identification of significant strengths

and weaknesses of the organizations and potential exterior threats;

Formulation of basic assumptions rela-ting to the key determinants of a success in marketing;

Realistic market objectives based on the collected information, SWOT analysis, cre-ated prerequisites and formulated strategy;

Identification of detailed plans and programmes to achieve the objectives.

In marketing, there is only one way to success – a particular and unique carpet made of marketing qualities and activi-ties has to be woven. Professor Michael Porter of Harvard University believes that a company actually has no strategy if con-ducts the same activities as its competitors, only somewhat better. Operating efficien-cy is not the same thing as a strong stra-tegy. Porter believes that a company has a strong strategy when it reaches the point where its strategy is significantly different than the competitive one.

The functions of marketing must inclu-de all resources that have an immediate

The recognition of motives and behavior of insurants represents the basis for making quality decisions regarding the approach of a new insurance company offering new insurance products, such as the Atlas Life. While shaping a marketing strategy, the highest attention needs to be paid to the instrument that the members of the target group are the most sensitive to. The main motif of an insurant is to protect his life and property against risks. Insurance contributes to the satisfaction of three fundamental needs: 1) the need to be safe 2) the need to save money; and 3) responding to legal obligations stipulated by the State. The agents of acquisition also include numerous agents of psychological and sociological nature. Drawing the attention to some associated characteristics of a product is due to the recognition that an insurant is also purchasing an image and a brand, not (only) the product. Which motives (rational or emotional) will dominate when making a purchase decision depends both on the actual nature of a product, as well as on the social environment, psychological features of a person, previous experiences and knowledge, etc

Lepa Đurović, MA Atlas Life

BANKAR € There are companies that make things possible, those that monitor the events from aside, and those that wonder what happened. If we do not change the direction, we shall probably end up where we started from

Philip Kotler


72slojevite odnose između njih, te sredstva, odnosno tehnička i institucionalna reše- nja koje omogućavaju njegov rad.

Prodaja i zadovoljavanje kupaca je glav-ni razlog postojanja marketinške strategije. Da bi se ona dobro sprovela, potrebno je da se mnogo zna o ciljnim kupcima. Samo kupac kojem je problem rešen na pravi na-čin je zadovoljan i može postati promoter osiguravajuće kompanije.

Marketeri su u prošlosti mislili da je naj-važnije umeti pronaći novog kupca. Prodavci provode većinu svog vremena „loveći“, a ne baveći se kupcima. Proslavljaju pridobi-janje svakog novog kupca, kao da su osvo-jili trofej. A uslužuju svoje postojeće kup-ce sa mnogo manje zanosa.

Danas je opšteprihvaćeno mišljenje dija-metralno suprotno. Primaran zadatak je da se zadrže i neguju kupci. Kompanija troši ogromne sume novca na pridobijanje po-stojećih kupaca, a konkurenti uvek pokuša-vaju da ih preotmu. Sa porastom cene vre-mena prodaje, pronalaženje novih kupa-ca je postalo preskupa upotreba vremena prodaje. Prodavci treba da prodaju a ne da tragaju za kupcima. Kompanje danas sve više preuzimaju odgovornost za prikupl-janje podataka o potencijalnim kupcima. Predajući dobre podatke svojim prodav-cima, ostavljaju im više vremena da oba-ve prodaju.

Psihološki moTivi kuPovineLjudi kupuju proizvod samo onda ako on zadovoljava jednu ili više njihovih emo-cionalnih potreba. U emocionalne potre-be spadaju: profit, strah, ponos i prestiž, osećanja, udobnost, moć, zabava, radozna-lost, ambicija, sloboda, besmrtnost.

Prodavači moraju znati da se prilikom kupovine proizvoda osiguranja pojavlju-je nekoliko manje ili više prikrivenih ri-zika, i to: ■ finansijski (mogao bih potrošiti previ-

še novca, mora li taj proizvod ili uslu-ga baš toliko koštati).

■ socijalni (što će na moju kupovinu reći moji prijatelji, kolege).

■ psihološki (jesam li pogrešio, hoće li kupovina kod mene kasnije izazvati grižu savesti).sve navedeno valja imati na umu kada

se razmišlja o motivima kupovine koji su u velikom delu nesvesni. Kada se kupuje ili ne kupuje razloge treba tražiti u nekoj od predočenih motiva i pobuda. Kod po-tencijalnog klijenta treba probuditi njego-ve nesvesne emocionalne potrebe, i to tako što ćete mu ih jasno predočiti i argumen-tovati bar jednim konkretnim primerom.

Čim klijent postane svestan svojih emoci-onalnih potreba, imaće želju zadovoljiti ih i kupiti vaš proizvod.

Kada bi ljudi kupovali samo ono što im je neophodno, privreda bi bankrotirala. Ako se osvrnete oko sebe i hipotetički uklonite sve ono što vam nije egzistencijalno nužno videćete da je sve ogoljeno. Međutim, ljudi ipak imaju osećaj da im neki proizvod tre-ba – on im i treba, ali ne za njihovu egzis-tenciju, nego da bi zadovoljili svoje nesves-ne emocionalne potrebe.

Rastuća svest o neophodnosti osigura-vajuće zaštite i rastući zahtevi osiguranika podstiču osiguravača da obezbedi što boga-tiju i raznovrsniju ponudu. Osiguravajuća usluga kao i svaki proizvod mora se stalno usavršavati i prilagođavati uslovima i po-trebama kupaca. Zato osiguravajuća druš-tva moraju stalno da prate šta se događa na tržištu osiguranja, da stalno inoviraju, dopunjuju i osavremenjuju svoje usluge, za koje osiguranik plaća određenu cenu, (premiju osiguranja).

disTribuCija

Kanali distribucije, tj. kanali prodaje mo-raju biti formirani na način da omoguće brzu i efikasnu komunikaciju između osi-guranika i osiguravača. Distributivna mre-ža mora biti razvijena i sa velikim brojem jedinica. Najznačajniji direktni kanali pro-daje su: filijale, ekspoziture, zastupništva i predstavništva.

Aktivno prodavati znači aktivno pristu-pati potencijalnim klijentima, uspostav- ljati kontakte s njima te probuditi njihove duboko potisnute potrebe i odmah im po-

nuditi zadovoljenje tih potreba. Prodaja je jako složena aktivnost, ali postoji gradacija prema stepenima težine. Kada kupci dolaze vama iz sopstvene potrebe i najčešće ima-ju konkretne predstave o tome šta žele ku-piti morate imati neke od naznačenih oso-bina ali ne toliko kao kod aktivne proda-je. Aktivna prodaja je nešto više, to je viso-ko umeće prodavanja, pravi izazov u koga možete uneti čitav repertoar svojih spo sobnosti. Za takvu prodaju valja utroši-ti više snage, angažmana i znanja nego za bilo koji drugi oblik prodaje.

Lična prodaja podrazumeva kontakt licem u lice sa kupcem i za razliku od oglašavanja, unapređenja prodaje i dru-gih vidova nelične komunikacije omo-gućava direktnu interakciju između pro-davca i kupca. Dvosmerna komunika-cija znači da prodavac može da utvrdi specifične potrebe i probleme kupca i da, na osnovu tog znanja, napravi pro-dajnu prezentaciju. Specifični problemi kupca takođe mogu da se reše kroz di-rektni kontakt.

BANKAR € Proizvod nije proizvod ako se ne proda-je. On je onda samo muzejski eksponat

Ted Levit


impact on the establishment, maintenan-ce and strengthening of the relations with the beneficiaries of insurance.

business environmenTThe insurance market is a part of an ove-rall market that includes several groups of participants, stratified relations among those groups, in addition to the resources, that is technical and institutional solutions that enable its functioning.

The sale and customer satisfaction con-stitute the main reason for the existen-ce of marketing strategy. A lot needs to be known about the target groups in or-der to implement it well. Only the custo-mer whose issue was addressed in the ri-ght manner may become the promoter of an insurance company.

Marketing agents used to believe that the most important thing was to know how to find a new customer. The salesmen spend most of their time “hunting”, and not atten-ding to the needs of their customers. They celebrate winning over of each new custo-mer, as if they won a trophy. At the same time, they serve their current customers with a much lower enthusiasm.

Nowadays is completely opposite opinion is generally accepted. The primary task is to keep and attend to one’s customers. The company spends enormous amounts of mo-ney to win the existing purchasers, where-as the competition is constantly trying to win them over. As the price of selling time went up it became too expensive to spend it looking for new customers. The sales-men should be selling, not searching after customers. The companies are nowadays increasingly taking over the responsibili-ty of collecting information about poten-tial customers. By delivering quality infor-mation to their salesmen, they leave them more time to conclude a sales transaction.

PsYChologiCal moTives of shoPPingThe people will by a product only if it sa-tisfies one or more of their emotional requ-irements. The emotional requirements in-clude: profit, fear, pride and prestige, fee-ling, comfort, power, ambition, freedom, immortality.

The salesmen must know that when bu-ying an insurance product several more or less covered risks appear, as follows: ■ financial (I could spend too much,

does this product or service really have to cost that much).

■ social (what will my friends and colle-agues say about my purchase).

■ psychological (have I made a mistake;

will this purchase make me feel pangs of conscience later on).All of the foregoing has to be born in

mind when considering the motives for a purchase that are principally subconscio-us. Either when making or not making a purchase, the reasons need to be sought in one of the pointed out motives or im-pulses. The subconscious emotional needs of a potential client need to be awoken by clearly showing those to him and provi-ding at least one concrete example based on good arguments. As soon as the client becomes aware of his emotional needs, the wish for purchasing you product will arise.

If only necessary items were purchased by, the economy would go bankrupt. If we turn around and hypothetically remo-ve everything that is not necessary for our existence, we shall see that all becomes de-serted. Nevertheless, people still feel that they need a product – and they do, not for their survival, but in order to satisfy their subconscious emotional needs.

A growing awareness about the necessity to be protected through insurance, as well as a higher demand by insurants, encoura-ge the insurance companies to ensure an offer that will be as rich and as diverse as possible. The insurance service, as well as any product, must be continuously perfec-ted and adjusted to the circumstances and requirements of customers. The insuran-ce companies must therefore keep moni-toring the developments at the insurance market, keep innovating, supplementing and modernizing their services in exchan-ge for a particular price paid by the custo-mer (insurance premium).

disTribuTion

The distribution channels, that is sales channels, must be formed so that a fast and efficient communication between the insu-rants and insurance company is enabled. The distribution network must be deve-loped, including a large number of units. The most significant direct sales channels

are: branch offices, subsidiaries, represen-tation offices and agencies.

Active selling means an active approach to potential clients by establishing a con-tact with them and awakening and then immediately satisfying their held back needs. The sale is a very complex activi-ty, although the levels of difficulty can be rated. When the customers are coming to you aware of what they need and most of-ten with a particular idea of what they wish to buy, you have to have some of the indi-cated qualities, but not as many as in the case of active selling. Active selling means more, a great art of selling, a true challen-ge into which you may include a full range of personal abilities. Such a sale demands more energy, engagement and knowledge than any other sale form.

Individual sale understands a face-to-fa-ce contact with the purchaser, and unlike advertising, sale improvement and other forms of non-personal communication it enables a direct interaction between a sa-lesman and a customer. This two-channel communication means that the salesman may identify specific requirements and is-sues of the customer and make a sales pre-sentation accordingly. Specific issues of a customer may also be addressed through immediate contact.

Sales management understands: setting objectives, recruitment and selection, trai-ning, motivation and compensation, sales force evaluation, sales force shaping and sales force management.

The research shows that two factors have a special effect on the importance of con-fidence in insurance sales. Those two fac-tors include asymmetric information and limited rationality of customers, as well as a strong reliance of this sector of financial services on individual sale.

informaTion Asymmetric information results from the complexity of insurance products. This is reflected in the fact that insurance sales-men are much better informed than their customers. They know their products much better, as well as other products offered on the market, so that they are in a position to influence the customer’s choice signifi-cantly. This opens room to possible mani-pulation, where an insurance salesman may conceal some information at his disposal and state only those in his favor.

A limited rationality of customers re-sults from a not so good understanding of complex insurance products, and primari-ly relying on all information provided by

BANKAR €

A product is not a product if not sold. Then it is only a museum exhibit.

Ted Levitt.


74Menadžment prodaje podrazumeva:

postavljanje ciljeva, regrutovanje i selek-ciju, obuku, motivacija i kompenzacija, evaluaciju prodajne sile, određivanje veli-čine prodajne sile, organizaciju prodajne sile, oblikovanje prodajne sile i upravljan-je prodajnom silom.

Istraživanja pokazuju da delovanje dva faktora posebno utiču na značaj poverenja u prodaji osiguranja. Ta dva faktora su asimetričnost informacija i ograničena racionalnost korisnika, kao i snažno oslanjanje ovog sektora pružanja finansijskih usluga na ličnu prodaju.

informisanosTAsimetričnost informacija je rezultat kompleksnosti proizvoda u osiguran-ju. Ogleda se u činjenici da su ponuđači usluga osiguranja mnogo bolje informi-sani od samih kupaca. Oni daleko bolje poznaju svoje i druge proizvode koji se nude na tržištu osiguranja, pa su stoga u mogućnosti da značajno utiču na izbor kupaca. Time se otvara prostor za even-tualnu manipulaciju, ukoliko bi prodav-ci osiguranja prikrivali informacije koji-ma raspolažu i iznosili isključivo ono što njima samima ide u korist. Ograničena racionalnost korisnika rezultat je slabi-jeg razumevanja kompleksnih proizvo-da u osiguranju i oslanjanje prevashod-no na informacije dobijene od prodava-ca osiguranja. Upravo zbog svega nave-denog, jedan od osnovnih oblika pro-mocije u osiguranju je bio i još uvek je lična prodaja. Kao dvosmerni, interper-sonalni vid komuniciranja, lična proda-ja u najvećoj meri doprinosi uspostavlja- nju i očuvanju odnosa poverenja između prodavaca s jedne, i kupaca s druge stra-ne. Pored toga, značaj lične prodaje ogle-da se u tome što je to jedan od načina in-formisanja kupaca kojem oni poklanjaju najviše pažnje. Prodavci imaju i referent-nu moć, te njihovo mišljenje presudno utiče na izbor kupaca. Istovremeno, lič-na prodaja kao dvosmerni oblik promo-cije, značajna je za osiguravajuće kom-panije jer ona prenosi informacije sa tere-na unutar preduzeća, utičući na taj način ponekad i na redefinisanje strategije ko-municiranja, pa čak i na donošenje nekih važnih strateških odlika. Osiguravajuće kuće koje se inače veoma snažno oslan-jaju na ličnu prodaju, koriste informa-cije kojima raspolaže njihovo prodajno osoblje između ostalog i u cilju razvoja novih proizvoda.

Lična prodaja se oduvek smatrala ključ-nim vidom komunikacije s kupcima na tr-

žištu osiguranja. Osim toga, lična proda-ja je bila i još dugo će ostati osnovni kanal distribucije koji razvoj interneta nije uspeo da ugrozi. Stoga, imajući u vidu mišljenje brojnih autora može se zaključiti da će lična prodaja i dalje ostati primarni oblik promo-cije, bez obzira na to da li se radi o posto-jećim proizvodima ili pak uvođenju novih.

Da bi se lična prodaja uspešno koristila potrebno je osmisliti poseban plan komu-niciranja s prodajnim osobljem koje će biti zaduženo za neposrednu ličnu komunika-ciju s potencijalnim i postojećim kupcima. Značaj ovog plana komuniciranja s pro-dajnom snagom osiguravajuće kompani-je utoliko je veći ukoliko njene proizvode prodaju nezavisni posrednici. U teoriji i praksi su razvijene odgovarajuće strategi-je komuniciranja s brokerima, kako bi se na njih uticalo da na najbolji mogući na-čin promovišu i prodaju proizvode neke osiguravajuće kompanije. Kako je njihova uloga u promociji proizvoda, ali i stvaranju i održavanju reputacije kompanije koja je razvila proizvode osiguranja ključna, oni moraju biti obuhvaćeni odgovarajućim planom komuniciranja koji bi obuhvatao sprovođenje motivacione kampanje usme-rene prema predstavnicima prodaje i tre-ningu prodajnog osoblja.

Motivacione kampanje usmerene pre-ma zaposlenima u prodaji mogu imati cilj da podignu moral među zaposlenima, da ih uključe u sprovođenje promotivne kampanje ili da ih podstaknu da u svom okruženju prenose više pozitivnih infor-macija o kompaniji za koju rade, ostanu lojalni kompaniji i teže većim prodaj-nim kvotama.

Trening prodajnog osoblja za promo-ciju i prodaju novih proizvoda u osigu-ranju treba da bude kreiran tako da se prodavci upoznaju sa proizvodom, kom-panijom koja je razvila taj proizvod, po-tencijalnim kupcima i načinu komuni-ciranja s njima.

Neopipljivost i kompleksnost su dve osnovne specifičnosti proizvoda u osi-guranju. S druge strane, kupci ovih pro-izvoda danas zahtevaju više informacija, dok su sami bolje informisani i poseduju mnogo više znanja o proizvodu. Oni oče-kuju od prodavaca ne samo puku isporu-ku, već i konsultantske aktivnosti. Upravo zbog toga posebno se insistira na dobrom poznavanju proizvoda u osiguranju, ali i na tome da se ovo znanje koristi u skla-du sa etičkim principima i dobrom po-slovnom praksom. Ovo poslednje ponaj-više utiče na reputaciju same kompanije, pa je o tome posebno potrebno voditi ra-

čuna kada njene proizvode prodaju neza-visni agenti i druge organizacije. Stoga je vrlo važno da oni budu upoznati sa samom kompanijom, njenim pravilima, da pozna-ju vrednosti koje ona zagovara te usvoje-ne etičke norme. Kupci identifikuju pro-davce sa kompanijom za koju oni rade ili koju zastupaju. Ukoliko prodavci poka-žu nezainteresovanost za samu kompani-ju i nepoznavanje njenih vrednosti, kao i ukoliko prenesu kontradiktorne poruke u odnosu na one koje sama kompanija ša- lje u javnost, sve to ozbiljno narušava njen ugled kod potencijalnih i postojećih kupa-ca. Zbog svega toga, treninzi prodajnog osoblja pored znanja o proizvodu i znan-ja o kompaniji koje treba da pruže, tre-ba velikim delom da budu zasnovani i na edukovanju prodajnog osoblja veštinama komuniciranja i to veštini govora i veštini aktivnog slušanja.

govorniCi i dobri slušaoCi Veština govora treba da bude razvijana u skladu sa opštim imidžom koji kompanija želi da stvori i održi u javnosti. Neminovno ova veština je povezana sa aktivnim sluša- njem, na kojem teoretičari u ovoj oblas-ti poslednjih godina najviše insistiraju. Umesto prodavaca govornika, danas su nam važniji dobri slušaoci. Oni će pre-poznati potrebe kupca, njihove strahove u vezi s rizikom kupovine, njihovu ne-odlučnost, njihove primedbe i na osno-vu svega toga ponuditi im pravo rešenje njihovog problema.

Sve ostale promotivne aktivnosti koje osiguravajuće kuće sprovode, pored toga što im je osnovni cilj da informišu poten-cijalne i postojeće kupce, pružaju svo-jevrsnu podršku samoj ličnoj prodaji. Oglašavanje u masovnim medijima do-prinosi informisanju kupaca i pruža- nju podsticaja za kupovinu čime i samim prodavcima olakšava njihov posao. Pored toga na uspeh prodavaca u prodaji proi-zvoda u osiguranju u velikoj meri utiču i ostale prateće promotivne aktivnosti osi-guravajuće kompanije čineći da kupci već imaju neke predstave o kompaniji i nje-nim proizvodima. Tu spada organizovanje promotivnih događaja koji mogu imati i edukativni karakter, distribucija brošura, kataloga, kao i sveukupno prisustvo kom-panije u medijima. Uspešno vođeni odnosi s javnošću takođe doprinose uspehu lič-ne prodaje. Navedene promotivne i druge komunikacione aktivnosti doprinose boljoj informisanosti potencijalnih kupaca i stvaranju pozitivnih stavova o kompani-ji. Što su stavovi pozitivniji to je i veća


the insurance salesman. Exactly because of everything that was stated, individual sale used to be and still is one of the basic forms of promotion in insurance business. As a two-way interpersonal form of com-munication, individual sale mostly con-tributes to the establishment and mainte-nance of a confident relationship between the salesman on one side and the customer on the other. Additionally, the significan-ce of individual sale is reflected in the fact this is one of the ways to providing infor-mation by paying attention to the custo-mer at the most. Salesmen also have a re-ference power, so that their opinion has a decisive influence on the customer’s choi-ce. At the same time, individual sale as a two-way form of promotion is significant for insurance companies because it brings filed information to the company, thus so-metimes making it redefine its communi-cation strategy, and even adopt important strategic decisions. Insurance companies that otherwise rely very strongly on indivi-dual sale use the information held by their salesmen, inter alia, also for the purpose of developing new products.

Individual sale has always been consi-dered as the key method for communi-cation with customers at the insurance market. Furthermore, individual sale has been and will still remain for a long time the main distribution channel that the de-velopment of internet has not managed to threaten. Accordingly, as believed by nu-merous authors, it can be concluded that individual sale will still remain the main form of promotion, regardless of whether this relates to the existing products or an introduction of new ones.

For an individual sale to be applied su-ccessfully, a communication plan needs to be designed for the sales staff that will be responsible for an immediate and perso-nal communications with potential custo-mers. The significance of this communi-cations plan for the sales personnel of an insurance company is even higher where its products are sold by independent sales-men. Both in theory and practice relevant communication strategies for the brokers have been developed, in order to influence them in the best possible manner to pro-mote and sell the products of an insuran-ce company. Considering that they play a key role in product promotion, as well as in the creation and maintenance of repu-tation of the company that produced the products, they must be covered by a rele-vant communication strategy, including implementation of a motivation campa-

ign directed towards the sales representa-tives and sales personnel training.

Motivation campaigns directed towards the staff may be aimed to raise the staff ’s moral, include them into the implemen-tation of a promotional campaign or en-courage them to transfer to their environ-ment more positive information about the company that they would work for, rema-in loyal to the company and strive for hi-gher sales quotas.

Sales personnel training in the promo-tion and sale of new insurance products should be designed so that the salesmen become familiar with the product, the company that made it, potential custo-mers and the manner of communica-tion with them.

Intangibility and complexity are the ba-sic specific characteristics of insurance pro-ducts. On the other hand, customers who purchase such products demand more in-formation nowadays, are personally better informed and know much more about the product. They expect from salesmen not only a mere delivery, but also consulting services. Exactly for this reason a good knowledge of the product is required in insurance activities, but also to apply this knowledge in accordance with ethic prin-ciples and good business practices. The lat-ter one has the highest impact on the repu-tation of the company itself, so that it ne-eds to be taken into account when the pro-ducts of a company are sold by indepen-dent agents and other organizations. It is therefore very important that they are fa-miliar with the company itself and its ru-les, to be familiar with the values that it supports, in addition to ethical norms. The customers identify the salesmen with the company that employs them, or that is re-presented by them. If the salesmen show a lack of interest in the company itself and lack of knowledge about its values, as well as it they pass on some contradictory mes-sages in relation to those that are sent to the public by the company, all of this will seriously damage its reputation in the eyes of both potential and current customers. Because of all these reasons, sales person-nel training, in addition to their knowled-ge about the company and the product that is offered, should be mostly based on education of sales in communication ski-lls, including the skills of speaking and ac-tive listening.

speakers and Good lisTeners The speaking skills should be developed in accordance with an overall image that the

company wishes to create and maintain in the public. This skill is inevitably connec-ted with active listening that relevant theo-reticians have insisted the most upon over the recent years. Instead of salesmen and speakers, good listeners are more impor-tant to us today. They will recognize the needs of customers, their fears relating to purchase risks, indecisiveness and objecti-ons, and based on all of this offer them the right solution to their problem.

All other promotional activities conduc-ted by insurance companies, in addition to aiming primarily to inform the poten-tial and current customers, offer special support to individual sales. Advertising in mass media contributes to informing the customers and encourages them to make a purchase, thus making the sales-men’s job easier. Besides that, a salesma-n’s success in selling insurance products is also greatly influenced by other related promotional activities of the insurance company that make the customers obtain a picture about the company and its pro-ducts. This includes organized promoti-onal events possibly of educational cha-racter, distribution of brochures and ca-talogues, as well as an overall media pre-sence of the company. Successfully ma-naged public relations also contribute to the success of individual sales. The fore-going promotional and other communi-cation activities contribute to having the potential customers better informed and creating a positive attitude towards the company. The more positive the attitude, the higher the possibility that while spe-aking to a representative of the company the customers would make a positive de-cision to purchase the product. This has a major impact on the salesmen them-selves because it makes their job easier and increases the possibility of having a successful sale, which contributes to a hi-gher level of their motivation for a suc-cessful communication with the custo-mers, but also a higher-quality attitude towards the company itself.

Human resources management in the sales business includes complex issues re-lated to recruiting, employment, training, motivation, rewarding and evaluation by the employer. Nowadays each sales direc-tor manages approximately twenty to for-ty salesmen.

moTivaTionAll staff members involved in direct sel-ling and all representatives of an insuran-ce company must be motivated for a suc-


76verovatnoća da će u razgovoru s njenim predstavnikom prodaje oni doneti odlu-ku da kupe proizvod. Na same prodavce ovo ima veliki uticaj jer olakšava posao i poveća verovatnoću za uspeh u proda-ji doprinosi njihovoj boljoj motivisanos-ti za uspešnu komunikaciju s kupcima, ali i bolji odnos prema samoj kompaniji.

Upravljanje prodajnim osobljem ukl-jučuje složene probleme u vezi sa regru-tovanjem, zapošljavanjem, obučavanjem, motivisanjem, nagrađivanjem i ocenjivan-jem prodavaca. U današnje vreme svaki di-rektor prodaje rukovodi sa nekih dvadeset do četrdeset prodavaca.

moTivisanosTSvi zaposleni koji direktno obavlja-ju poslove prodaje osiguranja i svi za-stupnici osiguravača moraju biti mo-tivisani za uspješnu prodaju. Osobe koje u ime i za račun osiguravača za-ključuju ugovore o osiguranju mora-ju imati visok stepen samopouzda- nja i motivisanosti koji osigurava agresi-van način prodavanja usluge osiguranja.

Činioci motivacije prodajnog osoblja svakako su sljedeći: izazovni i merl-jivi ciljevi, mogućnost zarade od proda-je, stimulativni sistem nagrađivanja, že- lja za poslovnim uspehom, zadovoljenje određenih potreba zarađenim novcem, atraktivnost usluge, uvjerenje o korisnos-ti usluge, sigurnost posla i zagarantova-na plata, sklonost prijateljstvima i druš-tvenim kontaktima, pisana ili usmena priznanja direktora firme, usmeravanje i poklanjanje pažnje prodajnom osobl-ju, očekivanja rukovodioca prodaje, mo-gućnost ličnog doprinosa poslu, analiza ostvarenih planskih veličina, samopo-tvrđivanje osobe takmičenjem sa dru-gima, sloboda obavljanja na vlastiti na-čin, korištenje vlastite kreativnosti i ini-cijative, dobri međuljudski odnosi i sl. Koliko koji činilac utiče na konkretnu osobu, individualno je i zavisi od osobi-na te osobe. Direktor prodaje osoba je koja mora prepoznati interese pojedi-nog prodavača osiguranja i prema tome uskladiti motivaciju.

Osnovna je razlika između motivisa-noga i nemotivisanoga prodajnog osobl-ja što motivisano osoblje prodaji pristu-pa kao izazovu i s njome živi celodnevno. Motivisano osoblje prodaje određenu uslu-gu i nudi druge usluge, spominje uspehe društva potencijalnom kupcu, pruža i neke dodatne usluge kupcu i sl. Ako je motivisa-no, prodajno će osoblje: naučiti sve o uslu-gama osiguranja koje nudi, usvojiti pro-

dajne veštine, pristojno se odnositi prema sadašnjim i potencijalnim osiguranicima, brzo će reagovati na zahtev osiguranika, ostvariti razumljivu komunikaciju s osi-guranikom i naučiti upravljati vremenom. Nemotivisano prodajno osoblje, pak, pro-daji pristupa kao zadatoj obavezi i poten-cijalnom kupcu pristupa sa svrhom da to može zabeležiti u dnevnik svojih aktivnosti.

Banka-osiguranje objedinjava ponudu bankarskih i osiguravajućih usluga sa jed-nog mesta, iz banke. Očekivanja su da će ubrzan razvoj osiguranja života koje pred-stavlja važan izvor sredstava za ulaganja na finansijskim tržištima prouzrokovati smanjenje tražnje za bankarskim usluga-ma. To je još jedan od razloga za saradnju banke i osiguranja i pojave prodaje ži-votnih osiguranja preko bankarskih šalte-ra, uz kasnije širenje finansijkih usluga, i to sve na jednom mestu.

Sa stanovišta banke, primena banke, osi-guranja nudi mogućnosti obezbeđenje stal-nog priliva prihoda širenjem poslovanja u oblasti osiguranja, čime se snižava zavis-nost od kretanja kamatnih stopa i kama-ta kao glavne prihodne stavke; punije ko-rišćenje kruga brojnih stranaka; ponuda ši-reg obima usluga čime se učvršćuje veza sa strankama i njihova odanost; približavanje zaokruženom nizu finansijskih usluga pri-merenom životnim potrebama stranaka;

Imati pristup širokom broju bankar-skih stranaka predstavlja najveći pod-sticaj za osiguravajuće društvo. To se sa-vršeno uklapa u teorijska razmatranja iz

osiguranja koja se temelje na računu ve-rovatnoće i zakonu velikih brojeva. Sem toga, Atlas Life može iskoristiti veliki broj bančinih stranaka da ih prema pojedinim merilima što bolje razvrsta u grupe svojih novih osiguranika. Smanjenje visokih troškova preko zastupnika takođe predstavlja razlog Atlas Life-u da otvori nove pu-teve prodaje.

Stremljenje da se osiguranja zaključuju preko banke zasnivaju se na težnji učesni-ka u zajedničkom poslovnom poduhva-tu da više finansijskih proizvoda proda-ju preko jednog te istog prodajnog puta. Jedan od razloga što prodaja osiguranja preko bankarskog šaltera dobija na zna-čaju je i okolnost da osiguranici često više veruju savetodavcu u banci nego zastup-niku osiguranja.

Obrazac svefinansiranja prihvaćen je u celom svetu. Naravno, prisutne su razlike po pojedinim područjima. Obrazac banke - osiguranja najrasprostranjeniji je u zapad-noj Evropi, u nekim zemljama više od po-lovine premije životnih osiguranja ostva-ruje se ovim prodajnim putem.

Važnije je kako osiguranik vidi tj. per-cipira proizvod od stvarnih osobina pro-izvoda. Percepcija proizvoda zavisi od stimulansa na tržištu, društvenih i kul-turnih uslova i osobina ličnosti osigura-nika. Ljudi vide stvari (proizvod i dru-ge instrumente marketig miksa) ona-ko kako su indicirani da vide, zatim oni stvari vide u kontekstu a ne izolovano, i percipiranje u istim društvenim uslovima zavisi od ličnih osobina ljudi. Predstava o proizvodu i kompaniji, odnosno imi-dž, formira se na osnovu racionalnih i simboličkih osobina proizvoda koje su značajne za osiguranika. Nastoji se da se stvori takva kombinacija varijabli koja će najbolje odgovarati potrebama i želja-ma osiguranika tržišta Crne Gore u sa-dašnjem vremenu.

Marketing služba u sledećoj fazi mora da prati i osluškuje: promene preferencija i zahteva osiguranika, demografske pro-mene, akcije konkurencije u vidu repo-zicioniranja ili uvođenje novog proizvo-da, tehnološke promene koje dovode do skraćivanja životnog ciklusa proizvoda, novi operativni i tehnološki postupci koji dovode do zastarevanja brojnih proizvo-da, globalizacija, državna regulacija, troš-kovi, alijanse itd.

Napore treba usmeriti ka nuđenju pu-nog „paketa usluga“ koji obuhvata osigu-ravajuće usluge, bankarske usluge, usluge penzionog fonda, i sl. pri čemu prerasta u „finansijske supermarkete“.

Osiguravajuća kompanija mora imati službu mar-ketinga koja će obezbe-diti da potrebe osigurani-ka budu zadovoljene ade-kvatnim proizvodima, uz odgovarajuće cene, preko adekvatnih kanala distri-bucije i uz blagovremeno i kvalitetno informisanje. Satisfakcijom osiguranika stvara se imidž proizvo-da i samog društva i lojal-nost osiguranika, što im-plicira povećanje prihoda i profita.


cessful sale. The persons who signs insu-rance contracts on behalf of an insuran-ce company must have a high degree of self-confidence and motivation that en-sures an aggressive manner of selling in-surance services.

The motivation of sales personnel cer-tainly includes the following factors: chal-lenging and measurable goals, opportu-nity to generate revenues from the sales activity, a system of rewarding based on incentives, wish for business success, sa-tisfaction of specific needs by means of the money earned, attractiveness of the service, belief in its usefulness, job secu-rity and a guaranteed salary, tendency to make friends and social conflicts, writ-ten or oral recognition by the company director, attention aimed at and directed towards the sales personnel, expectations of the sales manager, possibility for per-sonal contribution at work, review of the level of accomplishment of planned acti-vities, self-confirmation through compe-tition, freedom to choose the manner of job performance, application of own cre-ativity and initiative, good interpersonal relations, and similar. It is individual to which extent a specific person will be in-fluenced by a specific factor, depending on the characteristics of that person. A sales director is the person who must re-cognize the interests of individual insu-rance salesmen and adjust the motivation activity accordingly.

The main difference between motiva-ted and unmotivated staff is that the mo-tivated staff approaches the activity as a challenge and lives with it all day long. Motivated staff members sell a particu-lar service and offer other services, men-tion the company’s success to a potential customer, offer some additional services to the purchaser, etc. If motivated, the sa-les personnel will learn everything about the services offered, adopt sales skills, have a polite attitude towards the existing and potentially insured persons, react quickly to their requests, establish a comprehensi-ve communication with the insurant and learn to manage time. Unmotivated sales staff members, on the other hand, appro-ach the selling activity as a given obliga-tion, whereas a potential customer is ap-proached for the purpose of registering this in a daily activity log.

Bank - insurance unites an offer of ban-king and insurance services in one place, at a bank. A fast development of life in-surance, representing an important so-urce of financial resources for investing

into the financial markets, is expected to cause a lower demand for banking ser-vices. This is another reason for a coo-peration between the banking and insu-rance sector, including selling of life in-surance at bank windows, in addition to further expanding of financial services, as a one-stop-shop.

From a bank’s point of view of, the ap-plication of bank-insurance offers: the possibility of generating constant cash flow by expanding its business activity into the area of insurance, whereby the dependency on interest rate movements and interest as the main revenue item is reduced; more complete employment of a circle of numerous customers; a wider range of offered services strengthening customer relations and loyalty; getting closer to rounding up an adequate scope of financial services meeting the custo-mer requirement.

Having an access to a great number of bank clients represents the highest stimu-lation for an insurance company. It per-fectly fits into the theoretical considerati-ons of insurance that are based on proba-bility assessment and the law of big num-bers. Additionally, the Atlas Life may use a great number of bank clients to classify them better, as its new insurants, into gro-

ups according to specific criteria. The re-duction of high costs by means of repre-sentation provides another reason for the Atlas Life to open new paths to sales.

The aspirations to have insurance po-licies concluded through banks are ba-sed on the desire of the participants in a joint venture to sell several financial products through the same path of sa-les. One of the reasons for an increasing importance of bank window insurance sales is that the insurants often believe bank advisors more than the insurance representatives.

An all-inclusive financial model has been accepted worldwide. Certainly, the-re are differences in various areas. The model of bank–insurance is spread the most in Western Europe, where in some countries more than a half of life insu-rance policies are accomplished through this sales route.

The way in which the product is seen, that is perceived by an insurant, is more important than its actual properties. The perception of a product depends on a sti-mulus on the market, social and cultural conditions, and personal characteristics of an insurant. People see objects (pro-ducts and other marketing-mix instru-ments) as induced to see them; those are also seen in a context, not isolated; a per-ception under the same social conditions also depends on personal characteristics of the people. An idea about a product or a company, that is its image, is created on the basis of both rational and symbo-lic qualities that are important to the in-surants. It is attempted to create such a combination of variables that will satisfy in the best manner the requirements and desires of insurants on the Montenegrin market at present.

In the following phase, marketing servi-ces must monitor and listen to any chan-ges in the preferences and requirements of insurants, demographic changes, activities of the competition towards repositioning or introduction of a new product, techno-logical changes towards shortening of the life cycle of a product, new operating and technological procedures that lead to ob-solesce of numerous products, globaliza-tion, governmental regulation, costs, al-liances, etc.

Efforts need to be made towards offe-ring a full “package of services”, including insurance services, banking services, pen-sion fund services, and similar, whereby the businesses will grow into “financial supermarkets”.

An insurance compa-ny must have a marke-ting service making sure that the insurants’ requ-irements are met with adequate products, in ad-dition to relevant prices, through adequate distri-bution channels and in-cluding a timely and qua-lity provision of informa-tion. By satisfying the in-surants, an image of the product and the insurance company itself is created, as well as the insurants’ loyalty, which implies an increase in the revenues and profit.

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Komplajens funkcija doprinosi jačanju sistema inter-ne kontrole kroz uspostavljanje redovnog nadgle-

danja poslovanja preduzeća i njima povezanim rizicima, te je organizovanje ove funkcije u banci značajno i za or-ganizovanje i koordinaciju kontrola u vezi sa rizikom usaglašenosti poslovanja sa odredbama ostalih propisa, koji često utiču na poslove različitih organizacionih ni-voa. Ova funkcija ima za cilj da zaštiti instituciju od po-tencijalnih predrasuda koje mogu nastati kao posljedica nepoštovanja usvojenih pravila. Međutim, odgovornost usaglašenosti poslovanja preduzeća sa propisima i standar-dima struke nije jedino u nadležnosti Komplajens funk-cije već se u značajnoj mjeri direktno vezuje za Odbor di-rektora, viši menadžment ali i sve zaposlene koji se smat-raju ključnim elementom uspostavljanja kulture usagla-šenosti u preduzeću.

Postojanje Komplajens funkcije kao aktivnosti koja po-država viši menadžment i Odbor direktora ne oslobađa ko-risnike procesa i ostalo osoblje od odgovornosti da upravl-jaju komplajens rizicima u okviru radnih procesa koji po-tpadaju pod njihovu nadležnost, da kreiraju i primjenjuju mjere interne kontrole u tu svrhu i da koriste sopstvene re-gulacione instrumente za postizanje tih ciljeva. Nezavisno

odjeljenje za komplajens nudi savjete i daje preporuke za poboljšanje interne kontrole, ali je izvršenje tih preporuka ili pokretanje drugih opravdanih mjera dužnost menadžera koji su odgovorni za odgovarajuće radne procese.

Rizik usklađenosti nastaje kao posljedica propuštanja preduzeća da svoje poslovanje uskladi sa zakonom, podza-konskim aktima, unutrašnjim aktima i standardima dobre prakse, usljed čega može doći do primjene zakonskih, od-nosno regulatornih sankcija prema preduzeću, finansijskog gubitka i / ili gubitka poslovnog ugleda. Rizik od zakonskih odnosno regulatornih sankcijanastaje ako banka, u svom poslovanju, prouzrokuje nepra-vilnosti čija je posljedica preduzimanje mjera nadležnog re-gulatornog tijela ili izricanje sankcija u skladu sa zakonom. Rizik finansijskog gubitka nastaje kao posljedica svih rizika kojima je banka izložena u svom poslovanju, kao i neodgovarajuće primjene strate-gije i politika koje banka sprovodi u upravljanju rizicima, a što dovodi do finansijskog gubitka u poslovanju po bilo kom osnovu. Rizik gubitka poslovnog ugleda nastaje ako banka, postupanjem koje nije u skladu sa zako-nom, podzakonskim aktima, unutrašnjim aktima ili stan-

„usklađivanje poslovanja“U skladu sa članom 41. Zakona o bankama, Banka je dužna da, zavisno od veličine i složenosti poslovanja, u svojoj organizacionoj strukturi odredi organizacioni dio ili lica zadužena za praćenje usklađenosti poslovanja banke sa zakonom, propisima kojima se uređuje sprječavanje pranja novca i finansiranja terorizma, propisima Centralne banke i aktima banke. Osim navedenog, Crna Gora još uvijek nije usvojila podzakonski akt kojim bi bliže uredila Komplajens funkciju neophodnu za usaglašavanje poslovanja banke sa postojećom regulativom ali i sa važećim internim aktima, etičkim kodeksom i Zakonom o sprječavanju pranja novca i finansiranja terorizma koji su usvojeni u skladu sa standardima Evropske Unije. U ovom napisu želimo da ukažemo na određene “Zahtjeve Evropske Unije1“ koji se postavljaju pred pravna i fizička lica čije je poslovanje uređeno Direktivama EU, a tiču se adekvatnosti uspostavljenih politika i procedura sa aspekta funkcionisanja sistema interne kontrole, menadžmenta rizika ali i rizika komplajensa dr Slavko Rakočevićrevizor, rukovodilac Komplajens odjeljenja, Hipotekarna Banka AD Podgorica Roger Claessensprof. Instituta za poslovne studije u Briselu; Konsultant Udruženja Banaka i Osiguravajućih društava Belgije; Predavač Akademije za bankarstvo i finansije Frankfurt

1 »Direktiva 2005/60/EC Evropskog Parlamenta


COMPLIANCE FUNCTION

Compliance function contributes to strengthening of internal control system through the establishment of

a regular monitoring of the companies‘ business opera-tions and their related risks. Therefore, organization of this function in a bank is important for the organization and coordination of control in relation to risk of busi-ness compliance with the provisions of other regulations, which often influence the activities of different organiza-tional levels. This function is intended to protect the in-stitution of the potential bias that may arise as a result of failure to comply with the adopted rules. However, the responsibility of companie‘s business compliance with re-gulations and standards of the profession is not only the responsibility of the compliance function but to a gre-at extent directly linked to the Board of Directors, seni-or management and all employees who are considered to be the key element in establishing a compliance cul-ture in the company.

The existence of the compliance function as the activity which represents a supporting tool to the senior manage-ment and Board of Directors does not relieve users of the process and other personnel from the responsibility to ma-nage compliance risks within the working processes that fall under their jurisdiction, to create and implement the internal control measures for this purpose and to use theit own re-gulation instruments for achieving these goals. Independent Compliance Department offers advices and recommenda-

tions to improve internal control, but the execution of the-se recommendations or implementation of other justified measures are the managers‘ duties, who are responsible for the relevant work processes.

The risk of compliance failure occurs as a consequence of the company failure to comply its activities with laws, by-laws, internal regulations and standards of good practice, which may influence the implementation of legal or regu-latory sanctions against the company, financial loss and/or loss of business reputation.The risk of legal or regulatory sanctions occurs if a bank in its activities causes irregularities which influence implementation of measures of the relevant re-gulatory body or the imposition of sanctions in accordan-ce with the law. The risk of financial loss occurs as a consequence of all risks to which a bank is ex-posed in its activities, as well as the inadequate implemen-tation of strategies and policies implemented by the bank in the risk management, which leads to financial loss in busi-ness on any basis. The risk of business reputation loss occurs if a bank, acting contrary to the law, by-laws, inter-nal regulations or standards of good practice, harms its busi-ness reputation and diminishes or looses the trust of clients.

Compliance risk monitoring is carried out according to the Annual plan, which is adopted by the Board of Directors,

„harmonization of business“In accordance with Article 41 of the Banking Law, a bank shall, depending on the size and complexity of operations, in its organizational structure determine the organizational part or the person responsible for monitoring of a bank‘s compliance with the law and regulations governing anti-money laundering and terrorist financing, the central bank‘s regulations and bank‘s acts. In addition to this, Montenegro has not yet adopted by-laws that would further regulate the compliance function necessary for a bank‘s compliance with the existing regulations and with the existing internal acts, Code of ethics and the Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Law, adopted in accordance with the standards of the European Union. In this article we want to point to certain „Requests of the European Union“1 regarding legal and natural persons whose business is regulated by the EU Directives, concerning the adequacy of established policies and procedures in terms of the functioning of the internal control system, risk management and compliance risk

Slavko Rakočević PhDAuditor, Compliance Department Manager, Hipotekarna Bank AD Podgorica Roger ClaessensProfessor of the Business Studies Institute in Brussels, Consultant of the Banks and Insurance Companies Association of Belgium, Lecturer of the Banking and Finance Academy - Frankfurt

1 »Directive 2005/60/EC of the European Parliament

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dardima dobre prakse, naruši svoj poslovni ugled i uma- nji ili izgubi povjerenje klijenata.

Poslovi praćenja rizika komplajensa obavljaju se prema Godišnjem planu, koji na predlog Komplajens menadže-ra usvaja Odbor direktora. Godišnjim planom utvrđuju se aktivnosti i dinamika sprovođenja aktivnosti Komplajens menadžera na praćenju rizika komplajensa, kao i dinami-ka izvještavanja Odbora direktora i višeg menadžmenta o nalazima Komplajens menadžera.

Godišnjim planom, kao redovni, mogu biti predviđeni kvartalni izvještaji Komplajens menadžera. Godišnjim pla-nom mogu se predvidjeti i vanredni izvještaji Komplajens me-nadžera, koji se sačinjavaju na inicijativu Odbora direktora ili samog Komplajens menažera, u slučaju da postoji izražen ri-zik komplajensa u pojedinim područjima poslovanja Banke.

Komplajens menadžer ocjenjuje efektivnost i efikasnost internih kontrola na upravljanju rizikom komplajensa, ko-risteći sledeći sistem ocjenjivanja: odlične interne kontro-le - nivo usklađenosti za zakonima, podzakonskim aktima i internim aktima je visok; zadovoljavajuće interne kontro-le - nivo usklađenosti za zakonima, podzakonskim aktima i internim aktima je zadovoljavajući; narušene interne kon-trole - nivo usklađenosti sa zakonimam, podzakonskim ak-tima i internim aktima je nizak; nezadovoljavajuće interne kontrole - nivo usklađenosti sa zakonima, podzakonskim aktima i internim proceduram banke je minimalan ili po-stoji potpuna neusklađenost.

Izvještaj Komplajens menadžera, kao minimum, sadrži: svrhu obavljanja kontrole; opis predmeta kontrole i odgo-vorno lice; nalaz, koji sadrži identifikaciju i procjenu rizi-ka komplajensa sa opisom uočenih nepravilnosti, potreb-nim objašnjenjima, analizom efekata uočenih nedostataka; preporuke i rokove za otklanjanje utvrđenih nepravilnos-ti i lica odgovorna za njihovo otklanjanje; druge konstata-cije, predloge i ocjene vezane za otklanjanje utvrđenih ne-pravilnosti i poboljšanje sistema internih kontrola na upra-vljanju rizikom komplajensa.

Priroda i svrha funkCije usklađenosTi Poslovanja sa ProPisima (komPlajens funkCije)Svaka institucija dužna je da definiše principe usklađiva- nja. Ovi principi imaju formu smjernica baziranih na rasu-đivanju i iskustvu i čine model ponašanja institucije. Politika usklađenosti definiše način na koji se ovi principi imple-mentiraju. Povelja usklađenosti definiše način na koji je potrebno ustrojiti ovu funkciju kako bi se obezbijedilo is-punjavanje njenih ciljeva. Funkcija usklađenosti se defini-še kao nezavisna funkcija čiji je cilj da utvrdi i ocijeni rizik usklađenosti institucije, kao i da pruža podršku višem me-nadžmentu u upravljanju u praćenju ovog rizika. Ona pod-nosi izvještaje višem menadžmentu i, gdje je to primjere-no, odboru direktora, te djeluje kao savjetodavni organ vi-šeg menadžmenta.

Sam izraz „usklađenost poslovanja“ definiše se kao rizik gubitaka koje institucija može podnijeti kao rezultat ne-usklađenosti njenog poslovanja sa važećim propisima. On može uključivati širok spektar rizika kao što su reputacij-ski rizik, pravni rizik, rizik sudskih sporova, rizik sankci-onisanja, kao i doređene aspekte operativnog rizika u vezi sa poslovnim aktivnostima institucije. Izraz „važeći propi-si“ u ovom kontekstu definiše se kao pravila kojih se insti-

tucija mora pridržavati prilikom poslovanja na različitim tržištima, naročito: zakoni, regulativa i uputstva koji regu-lišu pristup finansijskom sektoru i poslovanju banaka i/ili pojedincima koji su profesionalno angažovani u finansij-skom sektoru; zakoni i uputstva koji se bave profesional-nim obavezama, npr. pravila koja regulišu aktivnosti pro-tiv pranja novca i finansiranja terorizma, kao i pravila po-našanja finansijskog sektora (kako bi se, na primjer, izbjeg-lo djelovanje iznutra (insider aktivnosti) i manipulacije tr-žišnim cijenama) i pravila za zaštitu investitora.

Za svrhu ocjene rizika usklađenosti i definisanja koja obuhvata funkcije usklađenosti, treba uzeti u obzir i inter-na pravila ponašanja i etiku, kao i kodekse ponašanja pro-fesionalnih tijela i finansijskih tržišta (tržište Hartija od vri-jednosti ili druga regulisana tržišta).

odGovornosTi odbora direkToraOdbor direktora je odgovoran za definisanje principa usklađe-nosti koje je institucija dužna primjenjivati tokom vršenja svojih aktivnosti. Odbor direktora dužan je da promoviše pozitivan odnos prema funkciji usklađenosti, unapređuje razvoj struktura potrebnih za postizanje ovog cilja i obez-bjeđuje, u pravilnim intervalima, da institucija ima adekvat-nu funkciju usklađenosti. Politika i povelja usklađenosti koju priprema viši menadžment podnosi se odboru direktora na usvajanje. U granicama svoje nadzorne funkcije, Odbor di-rektora procjenjuje, na godišnjem nivou, način na koji insti-tucija upravlja rizikom usklađenosti. U tom smislu, Odbor direktora će redovno, najmanje jednom godišnje, zahtijeva-ti od višeg menadžmenta dostavljanje izvještaja o usklađe-nosti. Odbor direktora može svoj zadatak redovne procje-ne delegirati Odboru za reviziju ili Odboru za usklađenost koji je formiran specijalno za ove namjene. Odbor za revi-ziju je dužan da nadzire i analizira usklađenost banke sa za-konom i internim pravilima i regulativom. Odbor direkto-ra je dužan da osigura da funkcija usklađenosti ima, uko-liko je potrebno, pravo da se neposredno obrati predsjed-niku Odbora direktora ili, gdje je to primjenjivo, članovi-ma Odbora za reviziju ili Odboru za usklađenost. Takođe, dužan je da osigura da funkcija usklađenosti posjeduje re-surse potrebne za korišćenje usluga eksternih eksperata.

odgovornosT višeg menadžmenTaViši menadžment je odgovoran za izradu i implementa-ciju politike usklađenosti, kao i za uspostavljanje funkci-je usklađenosti u skladu sa principima ovdje prikazanim. Takođe, viši menadžment je dužan da, na redovnoj osno-vi, obezbijedi potvrdu adekvatnosti politike usklađenosti i verifikuje njenu primjenu i poštovanje, što takođe implici-ra da viši menadžment, u slučaju da funkcija usklađenosti ustanovi da se politika ne primjenjuje ili uoči ozbiljne pro-puste u njenoj primjeni, donosi odluku o korektivnim mje-rama i, gdje je to primjenjivo, o sankcijama koje je potreb-no sprovesti. Viši menadžment najmanje jednom godišnje, u formi koju smatra adekvatnom, informiše Odbor direk-tora (i gdje je to primjenjivo, Odbor za reviziju ili Odbor za usklađenost) o statusu usklađenosti. U ovom izvještaju, viši menadžment će naročito izvijestiti o ispunjavanju cil-jeva funkcije usklađenosti, kadrovskim i tehničkim sred-stvima opredijeljenim za posltizanje tih ciljeva i glavnim zapažanjima koji rezultiraju iz rada funkcije usklađenosti,


COMPLIANCE FUNCTION

upon the proposal of the Compliance manager. The annu-al plan determines activities and schedule of implementa-tion of the Compliance manager activities referring to the compliance risk monitoring and the dynamics of repor-ting to the Board of Directors and senior management on Compliance manager findings.

Annual plan, as well as the regular one, may provide quar-terly reports of the Compliance manager. Annual plan may foresee also extraordinary reports of the Compliance ma-nager, which are compiled on the initiative of the Board of Directors or the Compliance manager, in the event there is a strong compliance risk in certain areas of a bank‘s activities.

Compliance manager evaluates the effectiveness and ef-ficiency of internal controls of the risk compliance mana-gment, using the following grading system: excellent inter-nal controls - the level of compliance with laws, by-laws and internal regulations is high, a satisfactory internal controls - the level of compliance with laws, by-laws and internal re-gulations is satisfactory; violations of internal control - the level of compliance with laws, by-laws and internal regula-tions is low, poor internal controls - the level of complian-ce with laws, by-laws and internal procedures is low or the-re is a complete mismatch.

The Compliance manager report, as a minimum, includes: the purpose of a control, description of the subject of con-trol and responsible person; findings, which include identi-fication and compliance risk assessment describing the ob-served irregularities, the necessary explanations, the analy-sis of the effects of perceived shortcomings, recommendati-ons and deadlines for removing the irregularities and per-sons responsible for their removal, other statements, pro-posals and assessments related to the elimination of the ir-regularities and improvement of the internal control sys-tem for the risk compliance management.

naTure and PurPose of The business ComPlianCe funCTion WiTh regulaTions (ComPlianCe funCTion) Each institution shall define the compliance principles. These principles represent the guidelines based on reasoning and experience and make the model of the institution‘s behavi-or. Compliance policy defines the way how these principles are implemented. The Compliance Charter defines the man-ner of organization of this function to ensure the fulfillment of its objectives. Compliance function is defined as an in-dependent function that aims to identify and assess com-pliance risk of the institution and as the support to the sup-port senior management in management and monitoring of this risk. She submits reportsto the senior management and, where appropriate, to the Board of Directors, and acts as an advisory body of the senior management.

The term „harmonization of business“ is defined as the risk of losses that the institution may suffer as a result of non-compliance of its activities with existing regulations. It can involve a wide range of risks such as a reputation risk, legal risk, litigation risk, the risk of sanctions, as well as cer-tain aspects of operational risk in connection with business activities of the institution. The term „existing laws“ in this context is defined as rules that institutions must follow in its activities at different markets, in particular: laws, regula-tions and guidelines governing access to the financial sector and the banks‘ ativities and/or individuals who are profes-

sionally engaged in the financial sector; laws and regulati-ons dealing with professional obligations, for example, ru-les governing the activities against money laundering and terrorist financing, as well as the rules of the financial sector behaving (for example, to avoid insider activities and ma-nipulation with market prices as well as rules for the pro-tection of investors.

For the purposes of risk compliance assessment and de-finitions which include compliance functions the internal behaving rules and ethics have to be taken into account, as well as codes of professional bodies and the financial mar-ket behaving (securities market or other regulated markets).

resPonsibiliTies of board of direCTors The Board of Directors is responsible for defining the com-pliance principles which the institution shall apply in its ac-tivities. The Board of Directors is obliged to promote a po-sitive attitude towards the function of compliance, promote the development of structures required to achieve this goal and provides, in regular intervals, that the institution has the adequate compliance function. The Compliance Policy and Charter, prepared by senior management is submitted to the Board of Directors for adoption. Within the limits of its supervisory function, the Board of Directors assesses, on an annual basis, the way institutions manage the complian-ce risk. In this regard, the Board of Directors will regular-ly, at least once a year, require the submission of senior ma-nagement reports on compliance. The Board of Directors may delegate the task of regular assessment to the Audit Committee and Compliance Committee which is estab-lished specifically for this purpose. The Audit Committee is required to monitor and analyze the bank‘s compliance with laws and internal rules and regulations. The Board of Directors is required to ensure that the compliance function has, if necessary, the right to directly address the President of the Board of Directors or, where applicable, to the Audit Committee or Compliance Committee members. Also, it should ensure that the compliance function has the resour-ces needed to use the services of external experts.

senior manaGemenT responsibiliTYSenior management is responsible for the development and implementation of the compliance policy and to establish a compliance function in accordance with the principles pre-sented here. In addition, senior management shall, on a re-gular basis, provide confirmation of the adequacy of com-pliance policy and verify its implementation and complian-ce, which also implies that senior management, in case that compliance function discloses that the policy is not imple-mented, or in case of serious defaults, shall decide on cor-rective measures and, where applicable, the sanctions that should be implemented. At least once a year, senior mana-gement informs the Board of Directors, in the form it de-ems appropriate, (and where applicable, the Audit Commitee and Compliance Committee) on the status of compliance. In this report, senior management shall in particular re-port on meeting the goals of compliance function, person-nel and technical resources committed to reach these goals and on main observations resulting from the compliance function work, on all spotted deficiencies, corrective mea-sures taken and their monitoring, as well as on all the infor-

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IZMJENE MEĐUNARODNIH STANDARDA REVIZIJE

svim uošenim nedostacima, korektivnim mjerama koje su preduzete i njihovom praćenju, kao i o svim informacija-ma koje su potrebne za donošenje suda o tome da li je i na koji način fukcija usklađenosti ispunjavala svoje obaveze.

PoliTika usklađenosTiSvaka institucija je dužna da donese politiku usklađenosti, koju utvrđuje i redovno ažurira viši menadžment i usvaja Odbor direktora. Ova politika donosi se u pismenoj formi. Politika obavezno sadrži glavne aspekte rizika usklađenos-ti, objašnjava principe ustanovljene od strane Odbora di-rektora, uspostavlja funkciju usklađenosti i definiše njene ciljeve i nezavisnost, te zahtijeva donošenje povelje i imple-mentaciju programa kontinuirane edukacije.

Povelja usklađenosti definiše način na koji će funkcija usklađenosti poslovati. Nju odobrava više rukovodstvo i Odbor direktora.

Povelja kao minimum: definiše ciljeve funkcije usklađe-nosti; definiše odgovornosti i ulogu usklađenosti; usposta-vlja njenu stalnost i nezavisnost; opisuje odnos sa ostalim odjeljenjima i funkcijama, kao i eventualnu potrebu za de-legiranjem i/ili koordinacijom; odobrava funkciji usklađe-nosti pravo pristupa svim informacijama koje su potrebne za izvršenje njenih odgovornosti; prepoznaje njeno pravo

da sprovodi istrage; defiše linije izvještavanja; uspostavlja pravo da se kontaktira viši menadžment i, gdje je to prim-jenjivo, predsjednik Odbora direktora ili članovi Odbora za reviziju i Odbora za usklađenost; definiše uslove u kojima ova funkcija može angažovati eksterne stručnjake.

Povelja usklađenosti se razvija i ažurira bez odlaganja kako bi se reflektirale promjene u regulativi koja je obavezujuća za instituciju. Potrebno je dobiti odobrenje svih izmjena od strane Odbora direktora. Osim toga, povelju usklađenosti, kao i sve njene naknadne izmjene, neophodno je prezenti-rati svim zaposlenima.

konTrola funkCije uslađenosTi od sTrane inTerne revizijeAktivnosti funkcije usklađenosti predstavljaju dio polja in-teresovanja interne revizije. Interna revizija vrši procjenu funkcionisanja i efikasnosti funkcije usklađenosti na bazi nadzora usklađenosti pravila i poslovanja banke sa zako-nom, propisima i usvojenim politikama i procedurama. U svijetlu prethodno navedenog, funkcija usklađenosti sa pro-pisima ne može biti dio funkcije interne revizije institucije. Međutim, crnogorski zakoni ne sprečavaju internu revizi-ju u preuzimanju izvršne uloge u verifikaciji odgovarajuće primjene važećih propisa u poslovanju institucije.

Radi unapređenja, novih izazova i promjena koje su sve učestalije u revizijskoj profesiji, Međunarodni standardi revizije neprestalno se nadopunjuju i mijenjaju. Rezultat toga je izdavanje najnovijeg Priručnika međunarodnih standarda revizije u čijem je sadržaju 36 novih MSR i jedan Međunarodni standard kontrole kvaliteta revizororskog rada. U ovom napisu dat je prikaz revizijskih standarda koje je objavio Odbor za međunarodne revizijske standarde (International Auditing and Assurance Standard Board - IAASB), a koji se primjenjuju na reviziju finansijskih izvještaja od 15. decembra 2009. godine ili kasnijeDoc. dr Đorđije Rakočevićovlašćeni revizor

Jedan od stubova temeljaca razvoja ra-čunovodstvene i revizijske profesije

je implementiranje kvalitetnih propisa i standarda koji će uređivati područje i do-prinositi konvergenciji standarda, a u cilju služenja javnih interesa. U tom smislu za revizijsku profesiju naročito su značaj-ni Međunarodni revizijski standardi koje izdaje Međunarodna federacija računovođa (IFAC) odnosno pododbor unutar te orga-nizacije koji se zove International Audíting and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB).

U skladu sa razvojem profesije, ali i zbog novih izazova i promjena koje su sve učesta-lije u revizijskoj profesiji, Međunarodni re-vizijski standardi se neprestano nadopun-juju i mijenjaju, a sve u cilju unaprjeđenja kvaliteta revizijske profesije.

sTrukTura izmijenjeniH meÐunarodniH revizijskiH sTandarda U svojoj srednjoročnoj strategi-ji Međunarodna federacija računovođa (IFAC) je značajna sredstva i vrijeme po-

svetila projektu jasnoće (clearity project), čiji je cilj između ostalog bilo jasnije de-finisnje opštih ciljeve revizije, pojašnje- nje obaveze revizora te uklanjanje mo-gućih dvosmislenosti u pogledu obave-za koje revizor mora da ispuni u skladu sa Međunarodnim revizijskim standardi-ma. Kao rezultat rada na projektu izdat je Priručnik međunarodnih revizijskih stan-darda u čijem je sadržaju 36 novih MRS i jedan Međunarodni standard kontrole kvaliteta revizorskog rada. Ovi standardi

dopunjavanje i mijenjanje kvaliteta radi


COMPLIANCE FUNCTION

AMENDMENTS TO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS ON AUDITING

mation they need to make judgments on whether and how the compliance function meets its obligations.

ComPlianCe PoliCYEach institution is obliged to adopt a compliance policy, es-tablished and regularly updated by the senior management and approved by the Board of Directors. This policy is ad-dopted in the written form. Policy must include the main aspects of compliance risk, explains the principles establis-hed by the Board of Directors, establishes the complian-ce function and defines its goals and independence, requi-res the adopition of the Charter and implementation of the continuous education programmes.

The Charter defines the manner of the compliance function operations. It is approved by the senior management and the Board of Directors.

The Charter, as a minimum, defines: the goals of com-pliance functions, responsibilities and the role of complian-ce, establishes its permanence and independence, describes the relationship with other departments and functions as well as the possible need for delegation and / or coordina-tion; approves to the compliance function the right to ac-cess all the information needed for the execution of its es-ponsibilities, recognizes its right to conduct investigations;

defines lines of reporting, establishes the right to contact senior management and, where applicable, the President of the Board of Directors or the Audit Committee and the Compliance Committee members; defines the conditions under which these functions can engage external experts.

Compliance Charter is developed and updated witho-ut delay in order to reflect changes in the regulations that is binding on the institution. It is necessary to obtain ap-proval of all amendments by the Board of Directors. In ad-dition, the Compliance Charter, and all of its subsequent amendments, must be presented to all employees.

ComPlianCe funCTion ConTrol bY inTernal audiTActivities of the compliance function are a part of the in-ternal audit interest. Internal audit assesses of the functio-ning and efficiency of the compliance function based on the oversight of a bank‘ rules and activities compliance with the law, regulations and adopted policies and procedures. In li-ght of the abovementioned, the compliance function with the regulations can not be a part of the functions of internal audit institution. However, Montenegrin laws do not pre-vent internal audit in assuming executive role in the verifi-cation of proper implementation of existing regulations in the activities of the institution.

The International Standards on Auditing (ISA) have been constantly redrafted and amended in order to respond to frequent challenges and changes in audit area. The new Guide to Using International Standards on Auditing was published. It included 36 new International Standards on Auditing and one International Standard on Quality Control. This document gives the review of auditing standards published by the International Auditing and Assurance Standard Board (IAAS) that are being applied to the audit of the financial statements as of 15th December 2009 or later on

Doc Đorđije Rakočević, PhD authorised auditor

requiring higher Quality

One of the foundations of the accoun-ting and auditing profession is the im-

plementation of quality rules and standards in order to regulate this area and contri-bute to the convergence of standards for the purpose of public interests. In that res-pect, International Standards on Auditing issued by the International Federation of Accountants Committee, i.e. its subcommit-tee, International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) are particularly important. In accordance with the deve-

lopment of the profession and due to new challenges and changes that frequently oc-cur in the auditing, International Standards on Auditing are constantly being redraf-ted to strengthen the quality of auditing.

The sTruCTure of redrafTed inTernaTional sTandards on audiTinG In its medium term strategy, the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) has al-located significant funds and time to cla-rity project aimed at clear definition of

general audit objectives and removal of possible ambiguities with respect to the commitments an auditor must meet in accordance with International Standards of Auditing. As a result of the project, a Guide to Using International Standards on Auditing has been published contai-ning 36 new International Standards on Auditing and one International Standard on Quality Control. These standards are applied to audit of the financial statements as of 15 December 2009 or later on. All

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primjenjuju se na revizije koje se odnose na finansijske izvještaje koji počinju 15. de-cembra 2009. godine ili kasnije. Svi preu-ređeni i dopunjeni standardi imaju jedna-ku strukturu (uvod, cilj, definicije, zahtje-ve te smjernice za primjenu). Na taj način omogućava se preglednost i razumljivost te lakše snalaženje korisnika u standardi-ma. U skladu sa projektom čiji je cilj bio bolje definisanje obaveze revizora, može se reći da je bitna karakteristika preuređenih i izmijenjenih standarda jasnija formula-cija obaveza revizora te uvođenje novog standarda koji detaljnije razrađuje kon-trolu kvalitete revizorovog rada.

U odnosu na postojeće i prevedene stan-darde kao značajnu novinu predstavlja i uvođenje standarda 265 - Izvještavanje o nedostacima interne kontrole onih koji su zaduženi za nadzor i upravljan-je (Communicating Deficiencies in the Internal Control to Those Charged with Governance and Management), čime se želi postići troškovno racionalniji pristup obavljanju revizije koji polazi od pretpo-stavke djelovanja sistema internih kontro-la koji može umanjiti poslovne, a time i revizijske rizike. Ovaj standard je obja-vio Odbor (IAASB) u aprilu 2009. godi-ne i sugerisana je primjena od 15. decem-bra 2009. godine ili kasnije. Pri tome, ra-cionalniji pristup obavljanju revizije ni-pošto ne smije ići na štetu kvaliteta revi-zije finansijskih izvještaja. Prema ovom standardu revizor ima obavezu da izvi-jesti osobe zadužene za nadzor i upra-vljanje ukoliko uoči slabosti u sistemi-ma internih kontrola. Revizor treba da procijeni kvalitet sistema internih kon-trola prilikom procjene revizijskih rizi-ka. Između ostalog, standard definiše da slabosti u sistemima internih kontrola postoje ukoliko nijesu u mogućnosti da se spriječe, detektuju i otkriju prevare i greške. Takođe, revizor je dužan da zvi-jestiti osobe zadužene za nadzor i upra-vljanje ukoliko postoje značajne slabosti u sistemima internih kontrola.

Izmijenjen je i dopunjen standard 450 - Ocjena grešaka identifikovanih u revizi-ji. U skladu sa ovim MSR, od revizora se očekuje da procijeni učinak identifiko-vanih grešaka na reviziju kao i učinak ne-korigovanih grešaka, ako postoje, na fi-nansjske izvještaje. Isto tako revizor je du-žan da agregira identifikovane greške to-kom revizije, osim onih koje su trivijalno jasne. Takođe, revizor je dužan da identi-fikuje greške, da komunicira sa adekvat-nim nivoima menadžmenta te da traži ko-rekciju navedenih grešaka. U svakom slu-

čaju tokom revizije revizorova je odgovor-nost da procjenjuje materijalnu značajnost navedenih grešaka. Radna dokumentaci-ja revizora u skladu sa ovim standardom treba da sadrži procijenjeni iznos greša-ka ispod kojih će se one smatrati trivijal-nim, sve greške akumulirane tokom pro-cesa obavljanja revizije te revizorov zak- ljučak da li nekorigovanje identifikovanih grešaka (pojedinačno ili agregirano) može biti materijalno značajno za reviziju finan-sijskih izvještaja.

Pregled najZnaČajnijih odredniCa pojediniH izmijenjeniH i dopunjeniH međunarodnih sTandarda reviZije

MSR 200 (preuređen i izmijenjen) - Cilj i opšta načela sprovođenja revizije finansijskih izvještaja - Opšti cilj revizije finansijskih izvještaja je da omogući revizoru izražavanje mišlje- nja o pouzdanosti tih izvještaja. Revizorovo mišljenje nije garancija buduće sposobnosti dobrog poslovanja klijenta. Odgovornost za finansijske izvještaje snosi menadžment klijenta, a revizor je odgovoran za svoje izvještaje. Pri razmatranju djelokruga re-vizije ističe se da je potrebno obuhvatiti sve aspekte poslovanja klijenta, i to upra-vo onoliko koliko je to važno za reviziju finansijskih izvještaja.

MSR 210 (preuređen) - Uslovi preuzimanja obaveze revizijeObaveza revizije preuzima se pismom o preuzimanju obaveze revizije. Njime revi-zor potvrđuje svoje imenovanje, ukazuje na cilj i djelokrug revizije, utvrđuje obim odgovornosti prema klijentu, upozorava menadžment klijenta na njegove obave-ze i odgovornost, itd. Može se reći da se ovim pismom uspostavlja dobra komu-nikacija između revizora i menadžmen-ta klijenta kako bi se otklonili mogući ne-sporazumi. Upravo zbog toga revizor, po pravilu, traži od menadžmenta da mu je-dan potpisani primjerak ovog pisma vra-ti, što znači da je menadžment saglasan s uslovima revizije finansijskih izvješta-ja koje nudi revizor. U slučaju obnavlja- nja revizije tokom više godina, ovo pismo, po pravilu, nije potrebno pisati svake go-dine. Prilikom promjena uslova od strane menadžmenta revizor može odustati od preuzete obaveze.

MSR 220 (preuređen) - Kontrola kvaliteta za revizije istorijskih finansijskih informacijaOvaj Standard, prije svega, odnosi se na kontrolu kvaliteta rada koji je revizor pre-

nio na svoje pomoćnike (asistenta), ali i na kontrolu rada društva za reviziju s tim da se pod društvom podrazumijeva i revizor pojedinac (preduzetnik). Pod pomoćnici-ma se podrazumijeva osoblje uključeno u reviziju, osim revizora. Prilikom kontro-le pojedinačnih revizija potrebno je vodi-ti računa o prenošenju rada na pomoć-nike, o njihovom usmjeravanju, nadzo-ru i pregledu. Da bi se rad prenio na po-moćnike, potrebno je da oni imaju stepen vještina i kompetentnosti koje zahtijeva-ju konkretne okolnosti. Za usmjeravanje rada pomoćnika izuzetno je značajno da se oni upoznaju s poslovanjem subjekta, mogućim problemima u sprovođenju re-vizije te predviđenim programom revizi-je. Nadgledanje pomoćnika sprovodi se u samom toku sprovođenja revizije, a pre-gled nakon što je određeni posao obavljen. Naglašava se da rad pomoćnika može pre-gledati samo službenik istog ili višeg nivoa kompetentnosti. Najviše pažnje pri pregle-du posvećuje se prikupljenim dokazima te predloženom izvještaju.

MSR 230 (preuređen) – DokumentacijaRadna dokumentacija revizora predstavlja “sponu“ između knjigovodstvenih eviden-cija klijenta i revizorovog izvještaja. Ona pomaže u planiranju i obavljanju revizije, pri nadzoru i pregledu postupka revizije i, što je najznačajnije, ona služi kao dokaz o obavljenoj reviziji i kao potpora revizoro-vom mišljenju. U ovom Standardu navo-di se što obično sadrži radna dokumenta-cija. Međutim, jednostavno se može reći da radna dokumentacija mora biti potpu-na i detaljna što bi značilo da se na temelju takve radne dokumentacije može rekon-struisati cijeli postupak revizije. Radna do-kumentacija vlasništvo je revizora i on se mora brinuti o povjerljivosti informacija koje su sadržane u njoj.

MSR 240 (preuređen) - Revizorova odgovornost da u reviziji finansijskih izvještaja razmotri prevareIzraz “prevara“ označava namjerno pogre-šan iskaz (npr. falsifikovanje knjiženja, evi-dentiranje transakcija koje se nijesu dogo-dile, i sl.). Odgovornost za sprječavanje pre-vare ima menadžment i zbog toga on raz-vija sistem internih kontrola. Posmatrano s aspekta revizije, moguće je je govoriti o revizijskom riziku koji proizlazi iz prevare. U slučaju otkrivanja prevare revizor treba da procijeni mogući učinak na finansijske izvještaje klijenta. Isto tako, revizor o tome mora da izvijestiti menadžment klijenta, a ako je u to uključen najviši menadžment,

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redrafted standards have equal structure: introduction, objective, definition, require-ments and application and other explana-tory material. This enables better view and understanding of standards, and orienta-tion of users. In accordance with the pro-ject aimed at better defining of audit res-ponsibilities, the important feature of the redrafted standards is clearer definition of auditor’s responsibility and introduction of new standard that develops in more detail quality control of auditor.

The introduction of standard 265 - Communicating Deficiencies in Internal Control to Those Charged with Governance and Management represents important no-velty in relation to the existing and transla-ted standards. This standard’s objective is more rational approach to audit, which comes from the assumption of internal controls system impact on the decrease in operational and auditing risks. This stan-dard was published by the Board (IAASB) in April 2009 and its implementation is proposed on 15 December 2009 or later. It was also suggested that the audit per-formance cannot jeopardise the quality of the audit of the financial statements. According to this standard, auditor has the obligation to inform persons respon-sible for supervision and management if s/he discloses weaknesses in the internal control systems. The auditor should as-sess the quality of internal controls system when assessing auditing risks. This stan-dard defines that the weaknesses exist in the internal controls system if frauds and errors cannot be prevented, detected and revealed. In addition, the auditor is obli-ged to report to persons responsible for supervision and management if signifi-cant weaknesses are found in the inter-nal controls systems.

Standard 450 (redrafted and revised) - Evaluation of Misstatements Identified during the Audit. In accordance with this ISA, the auditor is expected to evaluate the effect of identified misstatements on audit and of uncorrec-ted misstatements, if any, on the financial reports. The auditor is also obliged to ac-cumulate misstatements identified during the audit, other than those that are clearly trivial. The auditor shall identify misstate-ments, communicate on them with the ap-propriate level of management, and requ-est management to correct those missta-tements. In any case, the auditor’s respon-sibility during the audit is to evaluate ma-terial importance of the mentioned mis-

statements. In accordance with this stan-dard, working papers of the auditor sho-uld contain evaluated amount of missta-tement below which misstatements wo-uld be regarded as clearly trivial, all mis-statements accumulated during the audit and the auditor’s conclusion as to whether uncorrected misstatements are materially, individually or in aggregate, important for the financial reports audit.

revieW of mosT imporTanT iTems of some of THe amended inTernaTional sTandards on audiTinG

ISA 200 (revised and redrafted) - Objective and General Principles Governing an Audit of Financial StatementsThe overall purpose of the financial reports is to enable the auditor to express his opi-nion on the reliability of the financial sta-tements. Auditor’s opinion is not the gua-rantee of future ability of good performan-ce of the client. Management of the client is responsible for the financial reports, and the auditor is responsible for his reports. When discussing scope of audit, it has been pointed that all aspects of client’s operati-ons should be encompassed to the extent which is important for the audit of finan-cial statements.

ISA 210 (redrafted) – Terms of Audit EngagementsThe obligation of an audit is assumed by engagement letter. The auditor confirms in this letter his appointment, points to the objective and scope of the audit, determi-nes the responsibility level to the client, and warns the management of the client to its obligations and responsibilities. This letter also established good communica-tion between the auditor and the mana-gement of the client to avoid possible mi-sunderstandings. That is why the auditor, as a rule, requires the management to re-turn a copy of this letter in which the ma-nagement agrees with the terms of the au-dit of financial reports offered by the audi-tor. In case of audit renewal during several years, this letter does not need to be writ-ten every year. If the management chan-ges the terms, the auditor may waive the assumed obligation.

ISA 220 (redrafted) - Quality Control for Audits of Historical Financial InformationThis standard primarily refers to the qu-ality control of the performance transfer-red from the auditor to his assistants and the control of the performance of audit

firm, whereby audit firm is also comprised of one auditor (entrepreneur). Assistants include all persons included in audit, ex-cept the auditor. When controlling indi-vidual audits, special attention should be paid on assistants, their direction, over-sight and review. These assistants should have adequate skills and competences that require specific circumstances. It is extre-mely important that the assistants are fa-miliar with the operations of the control-led entity, possible problems in the audit and anticipated audit programme. It is also pointed out that the work of assistants can be reviewed only by person with same or higher level of competences. Special atten-tion is also paid to the gathered evidences and proposed format of report.

ISA 230 (redrafted) – Audit documentationWorking papers of the auditor represents connection between accounting records of the client and auditor’s report. It assists the auditor in planning and conducting the audit, overseeing and reviewing the audit and, most importantly, it serves as an evi-dence of the audit performed and support to the auditor’s opinion. This standard in-dicates the contents of the working papers. It can be complete and detail and as such, the whole audit procedure can be recon-structed. Working papers are the proprie-ty of the auditor and he has to take care on the confidentiality of information included in such documentation.

ISA 240 (redrafted) – The Auditor’s Responsibility to Consider Fraud in an Audit of Financial StatementsFraud means deliberately incorrect state-ment, for example forgery of accounting, or recording transactions that did not oc-cur. Management is responsible for the pre-vention of fraud and it develops internal controls system. It can also include audi-ting risk arising from fraud. In case of de-tecting fraud, the auditor should evalua-te its effect to the financial statements of the clients. Similarly, the auditor must in-form the management of the client about his findings, and if top management is in-cluded, the auditor must request level advi-ce and review his responsibility of repor-ting to top management.

ISA 250 (redrafted) - Consideration of Laws and Regulations in an Audit of Financial StatementsThe auditor is not expected to detect vio-lation of laws and regulations, unless they influence on the reality and objectivity of

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MSR 250 (preuređen) - Razmatranje zakona i regulative u reviziji finansijskih izvještajaUobičajeno se od revizora ne očekuje da otkrije neprimjenjivanje zakona i propisa, osim ako to utiče na realnost i objektiv-nost finansijskih izvještaja. Odgovornost za to snosi menadžment klijenta. Od re-vizora se posebno može zahtijevati da izvi-jesti o primjenjivanju određenih zakona i propisa. U slučajevima neprimjenjivanja revizor izvještava menadžment klijenta. Osim toga, ako to neprimjenjivanje zako-na i propisa ima značajan učinak na finan-sijske izvještaje, revizor izražava mišljenje s rezervom ili negativno mišljenje, a ako se ne mogu pribaviti odgovarajući doka-zi, onda se izražava mišljenje s rezervom ili uzdržanost od mišljenja. O neprimje- njivanju zakona i propisa revizor uobiča-jeno izvještava i tijela koja donose propise i organe vlasti. Osim toga, zbog neprim-jenjivanja zakona i propisa revizor može odustati od preuzete revizijske obaveze. Činjenica je da obavljena godišnja revizija finansijskih izvještaja klijenta može uticati na sprječavanje greške ili prevare, među-tim revizor nije, niti može biti odgovoran za sprječavanje prevare i greške.

MSR 260 - Izvještavanje o revizijskim pitanji- ma s onima koji su zaduženi za upravljanjeSvrha ovog Standarda je davanje odgova-rajućih uputstava za raspravljanje revizij-skih pitanja, proizašlih iz revizije finan-sijskih izvještaja, između revizora i rele-vantnih osoba koje su zadužene za upra-vljanje. Te osobe, prema ovom Standardu, treba da odredi sam revizor budući da je struktura upravljanja različita od zemlje do zemlje, odražavajuči tako kulturnu i institucionalnu pozadinu. Revizijska pi-tanja od interesa za upravljanje koja treba raspraviti obično uključuju opšti pristup i sveukupni cilj revizije, uključujući očeki-vana ograničenja, odabir ili primjenu zna-čajnijih računovodstvenih politika i prak-se koja ima ili može imati značajne učin-ke na finansijske izvještaje klijenta, mo-guće učinke na finansijske izvještaje zbog bilo kojeg značajnijeg rizika i izloženos-ti (sudski spor, i sl.), revizijske korekcije, bez obzira jesu li sprovedene ili ne u evi-dencijama preduzeća, a koje mogu imati ili imaju značajnije učinke na finansijske izvještaje klijenta. U skladu sa odrednica-ma ovog Standarda, revizor treba da pra-vovremeno i da u odgovarajućem obliku

(pisano ili usmeno) saopšti revizijska pi-tanja od interesa za upravljanje.

ProCjena riZika i odgovor reviZora na ProCijenjeni riZik

MSR 300 (preuređen) - Planiranje revizije finansijskih izvještajaPlaniranje revizije bazira se, prije svega, na poznavanju poslovanja klijenta i odvi-ja se neprekidno, u cijelom toku revizije. Promjene okolnosti ili neočekivani rezul-tati mogu usloviti promjenu planova. Osim vremenskog rasporeda revizijskih poslova, planiranje je značajno i u kontekstu uklju-čivanja pomoćnika jer planovi predstavljaju uputstva pomočnicima. Razlikuje se opšti plan revizije od programa revizije koji pri-kazuje vrstu, vremenski okvir i obim revi-zijskih postupaka. Prilikom planiranja po-slova revizije, revizor svoj plan uobičaje-no usklađuje s menadžmentom klijenta.

MSR 315 ((preuređen) - Identifikacija i procjena rizika pogrešnog prikazivanja kroz poznavanje subjekata njihovog okruženjaRevizor treba da identifikuje i procijeni ri-zike pogrešnog prikazivanja u finansijskim izvještajima na način da razumije promje-ne u poslovanju subjekta i njegove okoline. Rizici se procjenjuju na temelju revizijskih postupaka, prije svega, upita menadžmen-tu, analitičkim postupcima te postupcima posmatranja i inspekcije. U skladu sa ovim Standardom revizor treba da razumje po-slovanje subjekta te njegovo okruženje, što uključuje poznavanje sistema internih kon-trola te procjene pojedinih komponenata sistema internih kontrola. Na temelju ovih elemenata revizor procjenjuje rizik materi-jalno značajnih grešaka na nivou finansij-skih izvještaja i na nivou pojedinih računa.

MSR 320 (preuređen i izmijenjen)- Značajnost u revizijiU kontekstu značajnosti podrazumijeva se veličina ili vrsta pogrešnog iskazivanja koju revizor opravdano očekuje pri svakoj revi-ziji finansijskih izvještaja. Pritom se ističe da je značajna ona informacija čije izosta-vljanje ili pogrešno prikazivanje može uslo-viti pogrešnu odluku ili procjenu korisnika finansijskih izvještaja. Naime, ključna ide-ja ovog standarda sastoji se u tome da re-vizor svoju pažnju mora usmjeriti na ma-terijalno značajne informacije. Povezano s tim moguće je govoriti i o revizijskom ri-ziku. Ako se poveća prihvatljivi nivo zna-čajnosti, smanjuje se revizijski rizik i obr-nuto, ako se smanji prihvatljivi nivo zna-čajnosti, povećava se revizijski rizik.

Problematika značajnosti pojedinačnih i ukupnih utvrđenih grešaka izdvojena je u posebni revizijski standard. Takođe, ovaj standard detaljno reguliše koncept značaj-nosti u planiranju i sprovođenju revizije. U skladu sa tim, regulisane su i obaveze da revizor dokumentovano utvrdi sve ni-voe materijalnosti koje će koristiti tokom revizije te da tokom revizije revizor konti-nuirano preispituje njihovu primjerenost. Takođe, ovaj standard reguliše i obaveze revizora prilikom procjene nalaza revizi-je i njegovog uticaja na revizorski izvještaj.

MSR 330 (preuređen) - Revizijski postupci kao odgovor na procijenjene rizikeOvaj Standard podrazumijeva da je odgo-vornost revizora da prikupi dovoljno odgo-varajućih revizijskih dokaza kao odgovor na procijenjene rizike revizije. U kontek-stu revizorovog pristupa neposrednoj ve-rifikaciji elemenata finansijskih izvještaja, uobičajeno se ističu sljedeće temeljne vrs-te dokaznih testova: a) nezavisni testovi poslovnih događaja, i to testovi salda, te analitički postupci, i b) testovi kontrole. Naročito se naglašava pitanje dokumento-vanosti sprovedenih revizijskih postupaka, a u cilju odgovora na identifkovane rizike.

MSR 402 (preuređen) - Revizijska razmatranja s obzirom na osobe koje koriste organizacije za pružanje uslugaU skladu sa odrednicama ovog Standarda revizor treba, radi planiranja i razvijan-ja efikasnog revizijskog pristupa, da raz-motri na koji način uslužna organizaci-ja, čijim se radom koristi klijent, utiče na računovodstveni sistem i sistem internih kontrola klijenta. Dakle, revizor treba da utvrdi značajnost djelovanja uslužne or-ganizacije u odnosu na klijenta, kao i važ-nost u odnosu na reviziju, i to razmatraju-ći vrstu rada koju osigurava uslužna orga-nizacija, uslove ugovora te odnose između klijenta i uslužne organizacije, sposobnost i finansijsku snagu uslužne organizacije i druge dostupne informacije o uslužnoj or-ganizaciji. Osim toga, ako se klijentov re-vizor koristi izvještajem revizora usluž-ne organizacije, tada bi trebao razmotriti potrebu da se informiše o njegovim struč-nim kompetencijama u kontekstu određe-nog posla koji je preduzeo revizor usluž-ne organizacije.

revizijski dokazi

MSR 500 (preuređen) - Revizijski dokaziRevizor mora da prikupi dovoljno odgo-varajućih dokaza kako bi mogao izraziti




the financial statements. This is under ma-nagement responsibility. The auditor can be particularly asked to report on the imple-mentation of specific laws and regulations. In cases of violations, the auditor reports to the management of the client. Besides, if such violation of the laws and regulati-ons significantly affects the financial state-ments, the auditor expresses qualifying or adverse opinion. If appropriate evidences cannot be obtained the auditor expresses qualifying opinion or reservation. The audi-tor usually reports to decision-making bo-dies and authorities on violation of laws and regulations. The auditor may waive the au-ditor’s obligations due to violation of laws and regulations. The fact is that the annu-al audit of the financial statements of the client may impact the prevention of mis-statement or fraud. However, auditor is not and cannot be responsible for the preven-tion of fraud and misstatement.

ISA 260 – Communication with Those Charged with Governance The purpose of this standard is giving ap-propriate guidelines for communication of auditing issues arising from the audit of financial statements, between the au-ditors and persons charged with gover-nance. Those persons should be appoin-ted by the auditor since the managerial structure differs between countries, re-flecting both cultural and institutional background. Auditing issues that should be discussed usually include general ap-proach and overall objective of the audit, expected limitations, selection or appli-cation of important accounting policies and practices that has or may have signi-ficant effects on the financial statements of the clients, possible effects on the finan-cial reports due to any important risk and exposure, such as lawsuit, audit correcti-ons, regardless of whether they are repor-ted in the accounting records of the com-pany and which have or may have signifi-cant effects on the financial statements of the clients. In accordance with the provi-sions of this standard, the auditor should communicate, in writing or verbally, au-diting issues of interest for the governance on timely basis and in appropriate format.

risk assessmenT and response of THe audiTor

ISA 300 (redrafted) – Planning and Audit of Financial StatementsAudit planning is primarily based on re-cognition of the client’s operations and it

is performed continuously during the au-dit. Changes in circumstances or unexpec-ted results may cause the change in plans. Besides audit schedule, planning is also important in the context of inclusion of assistants since planning represents also guidelines to assistants. General audit plan differs from the audit programme, which includes type, timeframe and the scope of audit procedures. When planning an au-dit, the auditor harmonises its plan with the management of the client.

ISA 315 ((redrafted) - Identifying and Assessing the Risks of Material Misstatement through Understanding the Entity and Its EnvironmentThe auditor should identify and evaluate risks of incorrect reporting in the finan-cial statements so that he understands the changes in entity’s activities and its envi-ronment. Risks are evaluated based on au-dit procedures, such as inquiries to ma-nagement, analytical procedures and re-view and inspection. In accordance with this standard, the auditor should under-stand entity’s activities and its surroun-dings, which includes knowledge of in-ternal control systems, evaluations of in-dividual internal control system compo-nents. Based on these elements, the audi-tor evaluates risk of materially significant misstatements at the level of financial re-ports and individual accounts.

ISA 320 (redrafted and revised) - Materiality in Planning and Performing an AuditMateriality includes size or type of missta-tement that an auditor justifiably expects in each audit of the financial statements. The information which omission or misinter-pretation may cause incorrect decision of assessment of financial report’s beneficia-ry is considered to be material. Key idea of this standard indicates that the auditor focuses his attention on materially impor-tant information. This can be viewed as au-diting risk. If the acceptable level of mate-riality is increased, auditing risk is decre-ased and vice versa, if the acceptable level of materiality is decreased, auditing risk is increased.

The topic of materiality of individu-al and overall misstatements disclosed is shown in special auditing standard. In addition, this standard regulates in more detail the materiality concept in planning and performing and audit. In that respect, obligations that the audi-tor will document all levels of materiali-

ty to be used during the audit are regu-lated and the auditor continuously re-e-xamines their adequacy. This standard also regulates obligations of auditor du-ring the evaluation of audit findings and their impact on auditor’s report.

ISA 330 (redrafted) – The Auditor’s Responses to Assessed RisksThis standard talks about the responsibili-ty of the auditor to collect sufficient audit evidences as a response to auditing risks assessed. In the context of auditor’s appro-ach to direct verification of the elements of the financial reports, the following basic types of evidence tests are emphasised: a) independent tests of business events, tests of balances and analytical procedures, and b) control tests. The issue of documenting audits performed is particularly stressed in response to identified risks.

ISA 402 (redrafted) – Audit Considerations relating to an Entity Using a Service OrganisationIn accordance with the provisions of this standard, the auditor should, for the pur-pose of planning and developing efficient audit approach, discuss how service or-ganisation used by client impacts on the accounting system and internal controls system of the client. Therefore, the audi-tor should determine the materiality of ac-tivity of service organisation with respect to client and the importance with respect to audit, discussing type of the work en-sured by the service organisation, terms of the contract and relationship between the client and service organisation and other available information on service organisa-tion. Besides, if client’s auditor uses the au-ditor’s report of the service organisation, he should inform on his professional com-petences in the context of specific opera-tion assumed by the auditor of the servi-ce organisation.

audiT evidenCe

ISA 500 (redrafted) – Audit EvidenceThe auditor must collect sufficient num-ber of evidences to express opinion and compile auditor’s report on financial sta-tements. Sufficiency of evidences depends on the conditions under which the client operates and auditor’s judgements and its readiness to assume responsibility for the possible incorrect auditor’s reporting on financial reports. In the context of relia-bility of audit evidences, it is pointed out that external evidences are always more

jun 2010 | :Bankar

90mišljenje i sastaviti revizorski izvještaj o fi-nansijskim izvještajima. Dovoljnost doka-za zavisi od uslova u kojima klijent poslu-je te, prije svega, od prosuđivanja revizo-ra i njegove spremnosti da preuzime od-govornosti za eventualno netačno revizo-rovo izvještavanje o finansijskim izvješta-jima. U kontekstu pouzdanosti revizijskih dokaza naglašava se da su spoljnji dokazi uvijek pouzdaniji od unutrašnjih. Ako se razmatraju unutrašnji dokazi, oni su po-uzdaniji u slučajevima kada klijent ima zadovoljavajući sistem internih kontrola. Takođe, dokazi koje prikupi revizor po-uzdaniji su od dokaza koje je prikupio kli-jent. Isto tako, dokazi u pisanoj formi po-uzdaniji su od usmenih dokaza. Postupci prikupljanja revizijskih dokaza su: a) in-spekcija ili pregled, b) posmatranje (npr. inventure), c) propitkivanje, i konfirmacije (ankete, usmene konsultacije, usklađivanje tj. potvrđlvanje otvorenih stavaka), d) izra-čunavanje (provjera matematičke tačnosti isprava), i e) analitički postupci (značajni pokazatelji i trendovi, istraživanje neuobi-čajenih promjena i stavki).

MSR 501 (preuređen i izmijenjen) - Revizijski dokaz - dodatna razmatranja posebnih stavkiSvrha ovog Standarda je uspostavljane pra-vila i davanje uputstava kao dopune odred-nicama MSR- 500 Revizijski dokazi, i to u vezi s posebnim iznosima i njihovim obja-vljivanjima. Ovaj Standard reguliše tri pod-ručja: 1) postojanje i stanje zaliha, 2) pot-punost o parnicama i odštetnim zahtjevi-ma, 3) informacije o segmentima.

MSR 505 (preuređen i izmijenjen)- Eksterne konfirmacijeEksterno konfirmisanje je postupak koji podrazumijeva dobijanje pouzdanog re-vizijskog dokaza putem neposredne ko-munikacije s trećim osobama kao odgo-vor na zahtjev za informaciju o određenoj stavcii koja utiče na tvrdnje menadžmenta date u finansijskim izvještajima. Eksterne konfirmacije se najčešće koriste u vezi sa stanjima računa i njihovih djelova. Kod odlučivanja o tome može li upotreba ek-sternih konfirmacija osigurati dovoljan primjereni dokaz za potkrjepljivanje neke tvrdnje iz finansijskih izvještaja, revizor mora imati na umu značajnost, procijenjeni nivo inherentnog i kontrolnog rizi-ka, te kako će dokazi dobijeni iz drugih planiranih revizijskih postupaka, smanjiti rizik revizije na prihvatljivo nizak nivo. U ovom Standardu se detaljno obrađuje uti-caj postupaka eksternog konfirmisanja na

revizorovu procjenu inherentnog i kon-trolnog rizika, zatim tvrdnje koje se mogu potvrđivati pomoću eksternih konfirma-cija, zahtjevi menadžmenta u vezi konfir-misanja, ocjenjivanje rezultata postupaka konfirmisanja i sl.

MSR 510 (preuređen i izmijenjen) - Početno angažovanje revizora - početna stanjaNa realnost i objektivnost finansijskih izvještaja, osim poslovanja u tekućoj go-dini, utiču i stanja iz proteklih godina te računovodstvene politike u proteklim godinama. Zbog toga se značajna pažnja mora posvetiti ispitivanju početnih stanja. To dolazi do izražaja kada se revizi-ja u nekom preduzeću obavlja prvi put ili kada je u proteklim godinama revizi-ju obavljao drugi revizor. Ovdje se pod-razumijeva komunikacija s prethodnim revizorom te uvid u njegovu radnu do-kumentaciju uz uvažavanje profesional-ne etike revizora. Ako revizor nema do-kaza za početna stanja, a ona su značajna, tada izražava mišljenje s rezervom ili se uzdržava od izražavanja mišljenja. U slu-čajevima kada postoje greške u početnim stanjima te nedosljedna primjena računo-vodstvenih politika u odnosu na početna stanja izražava se mišljenje s rezervom ili negativno mišljenje.

MSR 520 (preuređen) - Analitički postupciPod analitičkim postupcima podrazumi-jeva se analiza značajnih pokazatelja i ten-dencija uključujući i rezultate istraživanja neuobičajenih promjena i stavki u finansij-skim izvještajima. Ovi postupci uobičajeno se baziraju na upoređivanju, te na prouča-vanju međuzavisnosti pojedinih elemena-ta finansijskih izvještaja zajedno s nefinan-sijskim informacijama. Vrlo su značajni u planiranju revizije, posebno za upoznavanje poslovanja klijenta i za utvrđivanje pod-ručja mogućih rizika što je vrlo značajno za daljnji tok revizije. Osim toga, analitič-ki postupci koriste se i kao dokazni tes-tovi. Revizor se može koristiti i analitič-kim postupcima koje je sproveo klijent, ali mora voditi računa o njihovoj pouzda-nosti. Na samom kraju sprovođenja revi-zije, analitički postupci koriste se u sveo-buhvatnom pregledu kojim se potvrđuju rezultati sprovedenih revizijskih postupa-ka ili se ukazuje na područja koja zahtije-vaju daljnje postupke.

MSR 530 (preuređen)- Revizija na bazi uzorakaRevizija na bazi uzorka podrazumijeva is-pitivanje manje od 100% stavki statističke

mase. Osim statističkih, postoje i nestatis-tičke metode uzoraka. Obje metode mogu dati zadovoljavajuće rezultate, tj. adekvatne revizijske dokaze. Nezavisno od korišćen-ja uzorka, inherentni i kontrolni rizik uvi-jek postoje. Nasuprot tome, rizik neotkri-vanja vezan je s revizijom na bazi uzorka. Naime, ako uzorak nije dobro određen po-stoji veliki rizik neotkrivanja. Međutim, i drugi faktori mogu povećati rizik neotkri-vanja pa se govori o riziku van uzorka. Ako je revizor spreman da toleriše veću grešku, dovoljan mu je manji uzorak i obrnuto. U slučajevima kada je statistička masa iz koje se uzima uzorak vrlo velika, pristupa se di-jeljenju statističke mase u slojeve, tj. stra-tifikaciji. Pri odabiru uzorka najčešće se primjenjuje tablica sa slučajnim brojevima ili računarsko stvaranje slučajnih brojeva, sistemski odabir, slučajni odabir i odabir dijela (blokova). Nađene greške u uzorku treba koristiti za predviđanje greške u ci-jeloj masi iz koje je uzet uzorak.

MSR 540 (preuređen i izmijenjen)- Revizija računovodstvenih procjena uključujući fer vrijednosti i povezana objavljivanjaMenadžment je odgovoran za izbor ra-čunovodstvenih procjena sadržanih u fi-nansijskim informacijama klijenta, a od-govornost revizora svodi se na utvrđivanje prihvatljivosti računovodstvenih procje-na uključenih u finansijske izvještaje. Pod računovodstvenom procjenom podrazu-mijeva se utvrđivanje približne vrijed-nosti neke stavke ako ne postoji precizni način mjerenja (npr. rezervisanja za od-štetne zahtjeve koji mogu proizaći iz ne-izvjesnog pravnog spora). Revizor mora prikupiti dovoljno odgovarajućih dokaza koji će mu omogućiti zaključak o oprav-danosti računovodstvenih procjena. Ako to nije moguće, izražava se mišljenje s re-zervom ili se revizor uzdržava od izraža-vanja mišljenja.

Ovim Standardom uspostavljena su pra-vila i uputstva za revidiranje mjerenja i ob-javljivanja fer vrijednosti sadržanih u fi-nansijskim izvještajima. Naime, procjene fer vrijednosti sadrže neizvjesnosti u po-gledu iznosa i vremena budućih novčanih tokova u slučaju mjerenja fer vrijednosti, posebno onih koja ne uključuju ugovorene novčane tokove ili za koja nijesu na raspo-laganju tržišne informacije kada se koris-te procjene. Stoga revizor treba da dobije dovoljno primjerene revizijske dokaze da su mjerenja i objavljivanja fer vrijednosti u skladu s okvirom finansijskog izvještavanja koji je odabrao poslovni subjekat. Naime, različiti okviri finansijskog izvještavanja



reliable than the internal ones. If internal evidences are discussed, they are more re-liable in cases when the client has satisfac-tory internal controls system. Evidences gathered by the auditor are more reliable than the evidences gathered by the client. Also, written evidences are more reliab-le than the verbal ones. The procedure of gathering audit evidences are: a) inspection or review, b) observation, for example in-ventories, c) inquiries, and confirmations (surveys, verbal consultations, adjustment, i.e. confirmation of open items, d) calcu-lation, such as verification of mathemati-cal accuracy of documents, and e) analyti-cal procedures, such as significant indica-tors and trends, research of unusual chan-ges and items.

ISA 501 (redrafted and revised) – Audit Evidence – Specific Considerations fro Selected ItemsThe purpose of this standard is estab-lishing rules and giving instructions as amendments to the provisions of ISA- 500 Audit evidence, with respect to spe-cial amounts and their disclosures. This standard regulated three areas: 1) exis-tence and balance of inventories, 2) full disclosure on litigation and claims, and 3) information on segments.

ISA 505 (redrafted and revised) - External Confirmations External confirmation is the procedure that includes obtaining of reliable audit eviden-ce through direct communication with third parties as a response to the request for information on specific item that in-fluences on the statements of the mana-gement given in the financial reports. The external confirmations are frequently used with respect to account balances and their sub-balances. When making decisions on whether the use of external confirmations may ensure sufficient valid evidence to support some statements from the finan-cial reports, the auditor must bear in mind materiality, assessed value of inherent and control risk and how evidences obtained from other planned audit procedures will decrease auditing risk to an acceptable le-vel. This standard discusses in more detail the issues such as the impact of procedu-re of external confirmation to audit eva-luation of inherent and control risk, and statements that can be confirmed throu-gh external confirmations, requirements of the management regarding confirma-tions, and evaluation of the results of con-firmation procedures.

ISA 510 (redrafted and revised) – Initial Audit Engagements – Opening BalancesBalances from the previous years and pri-or accounting policies also impact the re-ality and fairness of the financial reports besides current year operations. Therefore, special attention must be paid on the re-view of the opening balances. This is im-portant when the audit in a company is per-formed for the first time or when another auditor performed the audit in the pre-vious years. This includes communica-tion with the previous auditor and adhe-rence to the auditor’s professional code of ethics. If the auditor has no evidence for the opening balances that are important, he expresses the qualifying opinion or re-servations. In cases when there are errors in opening balances and inconsistent im-plementation of accounting policies with respect to opening balances, he expresses qualifying or adverse opinion.

ISA 520 (redrafted) – Analytical ProceduresAnalytical procedures include analysis of important indicators and trends, including also results of research of unusual changes and items in the financial reports. These procedures are usually based on compari-sons and examination of inter-dependen-cies of individual elements of the financial reports with non financial information. These procedures are very important in audit planning, particularly for the intro-duction with the operations of the client and determining areas of possible risks, which is also very important for further performance of audit. Besides, analytical procedures are used as evidence tests. The

auditor may use also analytical procedures conducted by client but he must pay atten-tion to their reliability. At the very end of an audit, analytical procedures are used in overall review which confirms audit results or points to areas requiring further actions.

ISA 530 (redrafted) - Audit SamplingAudit sampling includes review of less than 100% of statistical items. Besides statistical, there are non statistical sampling methods. Both methods may give appropriate results, i.e. adequate audit evidences. Regardless of use of samples, inherent and controls risks still exist. Contrary, nondisclosure risk is connected with the audit sampling. If the sample is not well determined there is big risk of nondisclosure. If auditor is ready to tolerate bigger error, small sample is suffi-cient or vice versa. However, other factors may also increase nondisclosure risk so this can be risk out of sample. If auditor is re-ady to tolerate bigger error, small sample is sufficient or vice versa. When statistical items from which the sample is taken are very big, these items are divided into sta-tistical layers, i.e. stratification. When se-lecting sample, the following is most frequ-ently used: table with random numbers or computer creation of random number, systemic selection, random selection and selection of part (block). Errors found in sample would be used for anticipating er-ror in whole segment from which the sam-ple has been taken.

ISA 540 (redrafted and revised) - Auditing Accounting Estimates, Including Fair Value Accounting Estimates and Related DisclosuresManagement is responsible for the selec-tion of accounting assessments contained in the financial information of the client and auditor’s responsibility is only for de-termining acceptability of accounting as-sessments included in the financial reports. Accounting assessment includes determi-ning approximate value of an item if there is no precise measurement of, for exam-ple, claims provisioning that arise from un-certain lawsuit. Auditor must gather suffi-cient number of evidences that will enab-le the conclusion of justification of acco-unting assessments. If this is not possible, the auditor expresses qualifying opinion or reservation.

This standard establishes rules and in-structions for reviewing measurement and disclosing fair values contained in the fi-nancial reports. Fail value assessments contain uncertainty with respect to the


jun 2010 | :Bankar

92zahtijevaju ili dopuštaju različita mjerenja i objavljivanja fer vrijednosti u finansij-skim izvještajima. Stoga ovaj Standard sa-drži i dodatak u kojemu se obrađuje prob-lematika mjerenjai objavljivanja fer vrijed-nosti prema različitim okvirima finansij-skog izvještavanja.

MSR 550 (preuređen i izmijenjen) - Povezane strankeOvaj Standard usko je povezan s Međunarodnim računovodstvenim stan-dardom (MRS) 24 - Objavljivanje pove-zanih stranaka i preuzete su definicije iz MRS-a 24. Revizor mora imati imena svih povezanih stranaka te mora utvrditi i prou-čiti sve značajne transakcije s povezanim strankama, a posebnu pažnju mora posveti-ti transakcijama u neuobičajenim okolnos-tima. Podrazumijeva se objavljivanje po-vezanih stranaka u finansijskim izvještaji-ma. Pri tome se značajna pažnja posvećuje izjavama menadžmenta. U kontekstu pri-bavljanja dokaza kao potpore revizoro-vom mišljenju, revizor se više može oslo-niti na dokaze dobijene od nepovezanih stranaka. Ako revizor ne može da priku-pi dovoljno dokaza o povezanim stranka-ma i transakcijama s njima te ako objavljivanje povezanih stranaka nije u skladu s MRS 24, tada on treba da na primjeren na-čin modifikuje svoj izvještaj (izražava miš- ljenje s rezervom ili se uzdržava od izra-žavanja mišljenja).

MSR 560 (preuređen)- Događaji nakon datuma balansaNa revizorov izvještaj stavlja se datum na dan kada je završeno ispitivanje, a to uklju-čuje period poslije datuma bilansa što zna-či da je revizor uzeo u obzir i one događaje i djelovanja poslije datuma bilansa, ali pri-je njegovog izvještaja. U periodu između revizorovog izvještaja i datuma objavljivanja finansijskih izvještaja menadžment je odgovoran za izvještavanje revizora o do-gađajima koji mogu uticati na finansijske izvještaje. Takve okolnosti mogu usloviti ispravljanje finansijskih izvještaja te revi-zorov izvještaj o ispravljenim finansijskim izvještajima kojim on zamjenjuje svoj pre-thodno objavljeni izvještaj. Ako se finansij-ski izvještaji ne isprave, revizor će izraziti mišljenje s rezervom ili negativno mišljenje.

U slučajevima otkrića činjenica posli-je objavljivanja finansijskih izvještaja, ako menadžment odluči da ispravi finansij-ske izvještaje, revizor mora obaviti po-stupke nužne u tim okolnostima i izda-ti novi izvještaj o ispravljenim finansijs-kim izvještajima.

MSR 570 (preuređen) - Vremenska neograničenost poslovanjaVremenska neograničenost poslovanja jed-na je od ključnih računovodstvenih pretpo-stavki. Kada zbog određenih finansijskih, poslovnih ili ostalih naznaka revizor uoči da je dovedena u pitanje vremenska neo-graničenost poslovanja, tu činjenicu prim-jereno je objaviti u revizorskom izvještaju, i to uobičajeno u zasebnom odjeljku teksta izvještaja. Međutim, potrebno je naglasiti da mišljenje revizora o realnosti i objektivnos-ti finansijskih izvještaja nije garancija ne-ograničenog vremena poslovanja klijenta.

MSR 580 (preuređeni izmijenjen) – Pisane izjaveIzjave menadžmenta o finansijskim izvješta-jima uobičajeno se razmatraju kao revizij-ski dokaz. Naime, revizor treba da ima do-kaz da menadžment klijenta priznaje svoju odgovornost za odgovarajuće prikazivanje finansijskih izvještaja te da je odobrio te izvještaje. Ove izjave mogu biti usmene, međutim revizor će najčešće tražiti pisanu izjavu, odnosno tražiće od menadžmenta da usmenu izjavu potvrdi u pisanom ob-liku. Pismo s menadžmentovom izjavom uobičajeno sastavlja sam menadžment i upućuje ga revizoru. Međutim, može se dogoditi da to pismo sastavi i revizor, ali u tom slučaju mora ga potvrditi i prihva-titi menadžment klijenta.

korišćenje radom drugih

MSR 600 (preuređen i izmijenjen) – Posebna razmatranja – revizije grupnih finansijskih izvještajaOvaj Standard odnosi se na situacije kada se glavni revizor subjekta koristi radom drugog revizora koji predstavlja revizora sastavnih dijelova subjekta. Glavni revi-zor se mora uvjeriti u profesionalne spos-obnosti drugog revizora i savjetovati ga u vezi revizije cjeline subjekta. Radna do-kumentacija glavnog revizora mora sa-držati dokumente o sprovedenoj reviziji sastavnih dijelova koju su obavili drugi re-vizori. Prema tome, podrazumijeva se sa-radnja glavnog i drugog revizora, i to po-sebno dolazi do izražaja prilikom izvješta-vanja o obavljenoj reviziji.

MSR 610 (preuređen) - Korišćenje rada interne revizijeUobičajeni djelokrug rada interne revizi-je svodi se na uvid u računovodstveni sis-tem internih kontrola, ispitivanje finansij-skih i ostalih poslovnih informacija za me-nadžment te ispitivanje uspješnosti i efek-

tivnosti poslovanja na bazi finansijskih i ne-finansijskih informacija. Upravo zbog tak-vog djelokruga rada interne revizije, poseb-no zbog pregleda sistema internih kontro-la, interna revizija može biti vrlo korisna za eksternog revizora finansijskih izvještaja. Ako je u preduzeću interna revizija dob-ro organizovana i dobro funkcioniše, tada to za revizora finansijskih izvještaja znači lakši i kraći postupak revizije. Međutim, prije nego se spoljnji revizor odluči da se koristi radom interne revizije, on je mora dobro procijeniti i pritom voditi računa o tome da interna revizija nije u potpunos-ti nezavisna već je, po pravilu, povezana s menadžmentom klijenta.

MSR 620 (preuređen i izmijenjen)- Korišćenje rada revizorovog stručnjakaKada revizor dio svoga posla prenosi na stručnjake, on njihov rad mora usmjeravati, nadzirati i pregledati. Revizor snosi punu odgovornost za rad angažovanog stručnjaka i zbog toga treba da vodi računa o njegovim vještinama, sposobnosti i objektivnosti te da sarađuje sa njim. Podrazumijeva se da angažovani stručnjak poštuje zahtjev po-vjerljivostí informacija. Rezultati do kojih se dođe radom stručnjaka revizoru će po-služiti kao dokaz, tj. kao potpora njegovom mišljenju. Ako revizor izražava pozitivno mišljenje, tada on ne treba da se poziva na rad stručnjaka. Suprotno tome, u slučajevi-ma kada se izražava mišljenje različito od pozitivnog (modifikovani izvještaj), revi-zor će se, uz suglasnost stručnjaka, pozva-ti na njegov rad.

reviZijski ZakljuČCi i iZvješTavanje

MSR 700 (preuređen) - Izvještaj nezavisnog revizora o finansijskim izvještajima opšte namjene

MSR 705 (preuređen i izmijenjen) - Modifikacije izvještaja nezavisnog revizora

MSR 706 (preuređen i izmijenjen) - Posebni naglasci i ostali dodaci u izvještaju nezavisnog revizoraRevizijski standardi detaljno regulišu struk-turu i sadržaj izvještaja nezavisnog revizo-ra što će znatno olakšati njihovu upotrebu i primjenu. S obzirom na izuzetnu važnost revizorovog izvještaja za eksterne korisni-ke problematika revizorovog ízvještaja je detaljnije obrađena u sljedećem poglavlju.

MSR 710 - Uporedne informacijeU ovom se Standardu obrađuju pitanja re-vizorove odgovornosti u odnosu na upo-



amounts and time of future cash flows in case of fair value measurement, particu-larly those that do not include contracted cash flows or for which no market infor-mation is available when the assessments are used. Therefore, the auditor should ob-tain sufficient audit evidences that measu-rements and disclosures of fair value are in accordance with the financial reporting framework selected by an entity. Different financial reporting frameworks require or allow different measurements and disclo-sure of fair values in the financial reports. This standard also contain annex in which the issue of measurement and disclosure of fair value is discussed based on different financial reporting frameworks.

ISA 550 (redrafted and revised) – Related PartiesThis standard is closely connected with the International Accounting Standards (IAS) 24 – Related Party Disclosures, and defini-tions from IAS 24 are also taken into con-sideration. The auditor must have names of all related parties and must determine and study all important transactions with related parties. The auditor must pay spe-cial attention to transactions performed in unusual circumstances. It includes disclo-sure of related parties in financial reports. Special attention is paid to the manage-ment statements. In the context of gathe-ring evidences as support to auditor’s opi-nion, the auditor must rely on evidences obtained from non related parties. If the auditor cannot collect sufficient evidence on related parties and their transactions and if disclosure of related parties is not in accordance with IAS 24, it should proper-ly modify his report, i.e. he expresses qua-lifying opinion or reservations.

ISA 560 (redrafted) - Subsequent EventsAudit report contains date when the au-dit is completed, which includes subsequ-ent events. This means that the auditor has taken into consideration also those events and actions after the balance date and tho-se before their reporting. In period betwe-en auditor’s report and date of disclosure financial statements, management is res-ponsible for reporting to auditor on events that may influence on financial statements. Such circumstances may result in correc-tion of financial statements and auditor’s report on corrected financial reports which replaces previously published reports. If the financial reports are not corrected, the auditor shall express qualifying opinion or negative opinion.

In cases of detecting facts after publis-hing financial reports, if the management decides to correct the financial statements, the auditor must publish procedures neces-sary in those circumstances and issue new report on corrected financial statements.

ISA 570 (redrafted) – Going ConcernGoing concern is one of key accounting assumptions. When, due to specific finan-cial, business or other indications, the au-ditor finds that going concern is disputed, he shall publish this fact properly in audi-tor’s report in special part of the report. However, it is worth emphasising that the auditor’s opinion on reality and fairness of the financial reports is not guarantee of going concern.

ISA 580 (redrafted and revised) – Written RepresentationsManagement statements on financial reports are usually discussed as auditor’s eviden-ce. The auditor should have evidence that the management of the client acknowled-ges its responsibility for appropriate disclo-sure of the financial statements and that he has approved these reports. These sta-tements may be verbal, but the auditor will frequently ask for written statement. Written representation is usually compi-led by the management and communica-tes it to the auditor. However, it may oc-cur that the letter is composed by the au-ditor, when the management of the client must confirm it and accept it.

usinG THe Work of oTHers

ISA 600 (redrafted and revised) – Special Considerations – Audits of Group of Financial StatementsThis standard refers to situations when au-ditor in charge of an entity uses the work of other auditor which represents the au-ditor of group of entities. Auditor in char-ge must be assured in professional capa-cities of other auditor and advice him re-garding audit of entire entity. Working papers of auditor in charge must contain documents on audit of the parts of an en-tity performed by other auditors. The co-operation between auditor in charge and other auditor is crucial in particular in re-porting on audit performed.

ISA 610 (redrafted) – Using the Work of Internal AuditorsUsual scope of work of the internal audit includes the review in the accounting sys-tem of internal controls, review of finan-

cial and other business information for the management and inspection of suc-cessfulness and effectiveness of operati-ons based on financial and non-financial information. That is why the internal audit may be very useful for the external audi-tor of the financial reports. If the internal audit is well organised in a company and functions well, the auditor will have easier and shorter audit procedure. However, be-fore the external auditor decides to use the internal audit work, he must evaluate and take into consideration that the internal audit is not completely independent, but it is, as a rule, connected with the mana-gement of the client.

ISA 620 (redrafted and revised) - Using the Work of Auditor’s ExpertWhen the auditor transfers a part of its work to other experts, he must direct, mo-nitor and review their work. The auditor bears full responsibility for the work of the engaged expert and he must take care on his skills, capabilities and objectivity, and cooperate with him. Engaged expert shall observe the confidentiality of information. The results of the expert’s work will ser-ve to the auditor as evidence and support that he can use in his opinion. If the audi-tor expresses positive opinion, his opinion should not be based on the expert’s work. Contrary, when an opinion different from positive is expressed, such as modified re-port, the auditor shall, with agreement of an expert, use the expert’s work.

audiT ConClusions and rePorTsISA 700 (redrafted) – Forming an Opinion and reporting on Financial Statements

ISA 705 (redrafted and revised) – Modifications to the Opinion in the Independent Auditor’s Report

ISA 706 (redrafted and revised) – Emphasis of Matter Paragraphs and Other Matter Paragraphs in the Independent Auditor’s ReportAuditing standards regulate in more de-tail structure and content of the indepen-dent auditor’s report, which will facilita-te their use and application. Due to extre-me importance of the auditor’s report for external users, the issue of auditor’s re-port is discussed in more detail in the fol-lowing chapter.

ISA 710 – Comparative InformationThis standard discussed issues of audi-tor’s responsibility in relation to com-


jun 2010 | :Bankar

94redne informacije. Uporedne informaci-je u finansijskim izvještajima mogu pred-stavljati iznosi (poput finansijskog položa-ja, rezultata poslovanja i novčanih toko-va) i odgovarajuća objavljivanja poslovnog subjekta za više od jednog perioda u zavis-nosti od okvira finansijskog izvještavanja. Ovim standardom se uređuje pitanje revi-zorove odgovornosti i revizorovog izvješta-ja za uporedne podatke i za uporedne fi-nansijske izvještaje. Naime, uporedni po-daci su iznosi i ostala objavljivanja za pre-thodni period uključeni kao dio finansij-skih izvještaja tekućeg perioda s namjerom da bi se čitali u odnosu na iznose i osta-la objavljivanja koja se odnose na tekući period. Dakle, uporedni podaci se ne pre-dočavaju kao cjeloviti finansijski izvješta-ji da bi mogli biti prikazivani samostalno nego su sastavni dio finansijskih izvješta-ja tekućeg perioda. Suprotno tome, upo-redni finansijski izvještaji su iznosi i osta-la objavljivanja prethodnog perioda uklju-čeni za upoređenje s ostalim objavljivanji-ma tekućeg perioda, ali ne čine dio finan-sijskih izvještaja tekućeg perioda. Kada se informacije za prethodni period predo-če kao uporedni podaci, revizor treba da izda revizororski izvještaj u kojem se in-formacije za prethodni period neće poseb-no provjeravati jer njegovo mišljenje o fi-nansijskim izvještajima tekućeg perioda, kao cjelini, uključuje i uporedne podat-ke. Kad su uporedne informacije prezen-tirane kao usporedni finansijski izvješta-ji, revizor treba da izda izvještaj u kojem se uporedne informacije posebno nagla-šavaju, jer se revizorovo mišljenje izraža-va posebno za finansijske izvještaje sva-kog prikazanog perioda.

MSR 720 (preuređen) – Odgovornost revizo-ra u vezi ostalih informacija u dokumentima koji sadrže revidirane finansijske izvještajePod “ostalim informacijama”, u ovom Standardu, podrazumijevaju se sve finan-sijske i nefinansijske informacije koje sa-drže godišnji izvještaji osim finansijskih izvještaja. Bez obzira ima li revizor oba-vezu da izvještava o tim informacijama, on ih mora razmotriti i proučiti jer, u slu-čaju nesklada između ostalih informacija i finansijskih izvještaja, može biti ugrože-na vjerodostojnost finansijskih izvještaja i revizorovog izvještaja. Osim toga, ovakve nedosljednosti mogu usloviti potrebu za is-pravljanjem ostalih informacija i/ili finan-sijskih izvještaja. U slučajevima kada kli-jent odbije da ispravi finansijske izvješta-je revizor će izraziti mišljenje s rezervom ili negativno mišljenje. Ako klijent odbi-

je da ispravi ostale informacije, revizor to treba da naglasi u svom izvještaju i zatra-ži pravni savjet o svojim daljnjim aktiv-nostima.

reviZorov iZvješTajKao rezultat procesa revizije finansijskih izvještaja u kojem je prikupljeno dovoljno odgovarajućih dokaza, revizor sastavlja re-vizorski izvještaj. U tom smislu revizorov izvještaj predstavlja formalnu komuni-kaciju revizora s korisnicima finansijskih izvještaja i zaključak revidiranih finansij-skih izvještaja. Osnovni standard koji od-ređuje strukturu revizorovog izvještaja je MSR 700 – lzvještaj nezavisnog revizora o cjelovitom skupu finansijskih izvještaja opšte namjene. Međutim, gotovo je u svim revizijskim standardima, istina indirektno, obrađeno pitanje revizorovog izvještaja.

MSR 700 (preuređen) - Izvještaj nezavisnog revizora o cjelovitom skupu finansijskih izvještaja opšte namjene

MSR 701 (preuređen i izmijenjen)- Modifikacije izvještaja nezavisnog revizora

MSR 570 (preuređen) - Vremenska neograničenost poslovanja

MSR 510 (preuređen) - Početno angažovanje revizora – početna stanja

MSR 800 (preuređen) - Revizorov izvještaj za posebne namjene

Prema Međunarodnom revizijskom stan-dardu 700 - Izvještaj nezavisnog revizora o cjelovitom skupu finansijskih izvještaja op-šte namjene dijelove revizorskog izvješta-ja čine: naslov, naslovnik, uvodni odjeljak, odgovornost uprave za finansijske izvješta-je, odgovornost revizora, odjeljak u kojem se izražava mišljenje, ostale odgovornos-ti izvještavanja, revizorov potpis, datum revizorovog izvještaja, revizorova adresa.

Revizorov izvještaj mora jasno da na-glasi da je uprava odgovorna za sastavljanje i fer prezentaciju finansijskih izvješta-ja. Odgovornosti uprave uključuju: a) ob-likovanje, uvođenje i održavanje internih kontrola relevantnih za sastavljanje i fer prikaz finansijskih izvještaja bez značajnih pogrešnih prikazivanja uzrokovanih pre-varom i greškom, b) odabiranje i primjen-jivanje odgovarajućih računovodstvenih politika, i c) stvaranje računovodstvenih procjena koje su razumne u datim okol-nostima. Takođe, sljedeći bitni element revizorovog izvještaja je navod da je od-

govornost revizora da izrazi mišljenje o finansijskim izvještajima na osnovi oba-vljene revizije te da je revizija obavljena u skladu sa Međunarodnim revizijskim standardima. U slučaju standardnog po-zitivnog mišljenja navodi se da finansijski izvještaji u svim značajnim odrednicama istinito i fer prikazuju finansijski polo-žaj, rezultate poslovanja te novčane toko-ve društva u skladu sa primjenjivim okvi-rom finansijskog izvještavanja. Ostale od-govornosti izvještavanja koje su ugovorne ili zakonom propisane unutar istog revi-zorovog izvještaja o finansijskim izvješta-jima te druge odgovornosti izvještavanja moraju se navesti u posebnom odjeljku re-vizorovog izvještaja.

Izvještaj treba da sadrži i datum kako bi korisnik znao do kada je revizor uzeo u obzir događaje koji bi mogli imati uticaj na finansijske izvještaje. Na kraju revizo-rovog izvještaja dolazi adresa i potpis re-vizora. Revizorov izvještaj mora biti pot-pisan. MSR dozvoljava da se revizorov po-tpis stavlja ili u ime revizorskog društva, lično ime revizora ili oboje.

Odjeljak u kojem se izražava mišljen-je ključni je odjeljak na koji korisnik revi-zorovog izvještaja treba da obrati pažnju. Uobičajeno se ističe da postoje dvije vrs-te revizorovog izvještaja: standardno po-zitivni i modifikovani revizorski izvještaj.

Standardno pozitivni revizorov izvještaj znači da finansijski izvještaji pružaju istinit i fer prikaz (ili prikazuju realno i objektiv-no u svim značajnim odrednicama) finan-sijski položaj, rezultate poslovanja i novča-ne tokove društva. Izvještaj će biti modifi-kovan kada treba istaknuti pitanja koja ne utiču na revizorovo mišljenje. U tom slu-čaju se standardnom pozitivnom revizo-rovom izvještaju dodaje poseban odjeljak u kojem se korisnika upozorava na: prom-jenu opšteprihvaćenih računovodstvenih načela, pitanje vremenske neograničenos-ti poslovanja i informacije u bilješkama uz finansijske izvještaje na koje korisnik tre-ba da obrati pažnju.

Pitanja koja utiču na revizorovo mišljenje mogu rezultirati izražavanjem negativnog mišljenja, mišljenja s rezervom, ili se revi-zor može uzdržati od izražavanja mišlje- nja. Ključne okolnosti koje bi mogle utica-ti na takvu odluku revizora su neslaganje s menadžmentom ili ograničenje obima is-pitivanja. Koje će mišljenje revizor izrazi-ti, zavisi prije svega od načela značajnos-ti. U slučaju da između revizora i uprave postoje značajne nesuglasice, revizor će izraziti negativno mišljenje, a ako to nesla-ganje nije značajno, mišljenje s rezervom.



parative information. This information in financial reports may consist of amo-unts, such as financial standing, opera-ting results and cash flows, and corres-ponding disclosures of an entity for more periods depending on the financial re-porting framework. This standard go-verns the issue of auditor’s responsibi-lity and auditor’s report on comparative data and comparative financial reports. To wit, comparative data are amounts and other disclosures for the previous period included as a portion of the financial sta-tements of the current period to be in-terpreted in comparison to the amounts and other disclosures for current period. Therefore, comparative data are not pre-sented as full financial statements to be presented independently, but are part of the financial statements of the current pe-riod. Comparative financial statements include amount and other disclosures of the previous period included for compa-rison with other disclosures of the cur-rent period, but they are not part of the financial statements of the current peri-od. When the information for the pre-vious period are presented as compara-tive information, the auditor should is-sue auditor’s report where the prior pe-riod information will not be specifical-ly verified since auditor’s opinion on full financial statements of the current peri-od includes also comparative data. When the comparative information is presented as comparative financial statements, the auditor should issue report which par-ticularly emphasises comparative infor-mation, since auditor’s opinion is speci-fically expressed for the financial state-ments of each presented period.

ISA 720 (redrafted) – The Auditor’s Responsibilities Relating to Other Information in Documents Containing Audited Financial StatementsOther information in this standard inclu-des all financial and non financial infor-mation that contain annual reports ex-cept financial statements. Regardless of whether the auditor has the obligation to report on other information, he must discuss and study them, and in case of discrepancies between other information and financial statements credibility of fi-nancial reports and auditor’s reports may be jeopardised. Besides, such inconsisten-cies may require the correction of other information and/or financial statements. When the client refuses to correct finan-cial statements, auditor shall express qu-

alifying opinion or adverse opinion. If the client refuses to correct other informa-tion, the auditor should emphasise this in his report and request legal advice on his further activities.

audiTor’s rePorTAs a result of financial reports auditing process where sufficient evidences are col-lected, the auditor compiles auditor’s re-port. In that respect, auditor’s report repre-sents formal communication of the audi-tor with the financial reports beneficiaries and conclusion of the audited financial re-ports. The basic standard that determines the structure of the auditor’s reports is ISA 700 – Forming an Opinion and Reporting on Financial Statements. However, almost all auditing standards, though indirectly, discuss the issue of auditor’s report.

ISA 700 (redrafted) - Forming an Opinion and Reporting on Financial Statements

ISA 701 (redrafted and revised) - Modifications to the Opinion in the Independent Auditor’s Report

ISA 570 (redrafted) – Going Concern

ISA 510 (redrafted) – Initial Audit Engagements – Opening Balances

ISA 800 (redrafted) – Special Considerations – Audits of Financial Statements Prepared in Accordance with Special Purpose Frameworks

According to ISA 700 - Forming an Opinion and Reporting on Financial Statements, parts of the auditor’s report are: title, addressee, introductory paragra-ph, management’s responsibility for the fi-nancial statements, auditor’s responsibility, auditor’s opinion, other reporting respon-sibilities, signature of the auditor, date of the auditor’s report, and auditor’s address.

Auditor’s report must clearly empha-sise that the management is responsib-le for compiling and fair presentation of the financial reports. Management’s res-ponsibilities include: a) preparation, in-troduction and maintenance of the inter-nal controls relevant for compiling and fair view of financial statements witho-ut significant misstatements caused by fraud and error, b) selection and applica-tion of appropriate accounting policies, and c) creation of accounting assessment that are reasonable in given circumstan-ces. Another important element of audi-

tor’s report is that the auditor is respon-sible for expressing opinion on finan-cial statements based on audit perfor-med and that the audit is performed in accordance with International Standards on Auditing. In case of standard positi-ve (unqualified) opinion, it is indicated that the financial reports present true and fair financial position in all aspects, ope-rating results and cash flows in accordan-ce with applicable financial reporting fra-meworks. Other reporting responsibili-ties that are contracted or prescribed by law within the same auditor’s reports on financial statements and other reporting responsibilities must be indicated in spe-cial chapter of auditor’s report.

The report should contain also date so that the beneficiary should know until what date the auditor considered events that might influence the financial state-ments. Auditor’s address and signature is at the end of auditor’s report. Auditor’s re-port must be signed. ISA allows for audi-tor’s signature to be also on behalf of the audit firm, name of auditor or both.

The key chapter is the one in which the opinion is expressed and which should draw the attention to the beneficiary of auditor’s report. There are usually two ty-pes of auditor’s report: standard positive and modifies auditor’s report.

Standard positive auditor’s report means that the financial statements provide true and fair disclosure, or realistic and objec-tive in all important aspects, the financial position, operating results and cash flows of the company. The report will be modi-fied when the issues that do not influence auditor’s opinion should be emphasised. In this case, a chapter in which the bene-ficiary is warned on the following is ad-ded to standard positive auditor’s report: change in generally accepted accounting principles and information in notes to fi-nancial statements the beneficiary should pay attention to.

Questions that influence auditor’s opi-nion may result in expressing negative opi-nion, qualifying opinion or the auditor may have reservations for expressing the opi-nion. Key circumstances that may influ-ence such decision are disagreement with the management or restrictions of review. Auditor’s opinion will depend on the mate-riality principle. If there is material disag-reement between the auditor and the ma-nagement, the auditor will express nega-tive opinion, and if such disagreement is not material, the auditor will express qu-alifying opinion.


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jun 2010 | :Bankar

98

VREMENA PROŠLA I SADAŠNJA

Na samom početku vijeka počelo se razmišljati o pogonu za preradu du-

vana kako bi se iskoristila postojeća proi-zvodnja duvana i koji bi se prerađen izvo-zio u inostranstvo. Ubrzane su aktivnosti za realizaciju ove ideje, a sve u cilju što br-žeg pronalaženja novog izvora za popunja-vanje prazne državne kase. Čim se proču-lo da Crna Gora namjerava dati koncesiju za duvan javile su se zainteresovane kom-panije: belgijske, čiji je predstavnik Emil Van Zel d’ Arlon napravio veoma ozbi-ljan prijedlog za ustanovljavanje mono-pola duvana, jedan sindikat iz Carigrada, predstavnici kairskih fi rmi, zatim agenti austrijskih fi rmi Ante Dešković kao pred-stavnik Artura Bitnera sa holandskim ka-pitalom i Filip Lukšić – vojni liferant, koji je napravio projekat monopola u kojem je vodio računa o interesima Crne Gore i Italijani Đovani i Antonio Baldači koji su sondirali teren u otvorili put italijanskom kapitalu i njegovim interesima. Botaničar Antonio Baldači ostavio je iza sebe višeknjiga o fl ori Crne Gore, a sve do 1925. godine aktivno je učestvovao u političkoj borbi za njenu nezavisnost.

Po jednoj verziji priče, princ Danilo je 1902. godine pokušao da od italijanskih ba-naka obezbijedi kredit od 300.000 lira za potrebe otvaranja monopola duvana ali mu to nije uspjelo, najvjerovatnije zahvaljujući miješanju Milutina Vesnića, srbijanskog dip-lomate, koji je bio u povezan za počasnim vicekonzulom Srbije u Veneciji Đuzepem Volpijem. Druga verzija, vjerovatno istini-ta, je ta de je Lujo Vojnović, opunomoćeni predstavnik Crne Gore u Vatikanu pozvao gospodu Đusepe Volpija, Pjera Foskarija i Roberta Revedinija da posjete knjaževi-nu i tako postavio temelje za niz inicijati-va koje treba preduzeti za razvoj zemlje.

Već je 19/31. januara 1903. godine usta-novljeno „Prethodno dopuštenje“ Državnog savjeta kojim je prihvaćen prijedlog gospode konta Ruđera Revedinija i Đuzepe Volpija da u roku od dva mjeseca obezbijede vla-di sredstva u iznosu od najmanje 1,5 mi-lion franaka za ustanovljavanje državnog monopola duvana. Zauzvrat, crnogorska vlada se obavezala da će osnovati mono-pol duvana tako da ni na koji načine neće moći da daje manju korist od trideset hi-ljada kruna. Investitori za sebe zadržavaju pravo rukovođenja administracijom društva preko tročlanog savjeta kojim predsjedava predstavnik crnogorske vlade. Svo tehnič-ko osoblje bilo je italijansko, a sve drugo crnogorsko, s tim da kasnije stranci budu zamijenjeni domaćim kadrom.

Koncesija je data na 15 godina sa pra-vom otkupa crnogorske vlade nakon 10 godina rada. Tako su iz trke za dobija-nje koncesije na monopol duvana ispali svi zainteresovani, bez obzira na kvalitet po-nuda i njihovu povoljnost za Crnu Goru.

Ugovor o davanju koncesije sklopljen je 18/31. maja 1903. godine, a iznos inves-ticije iznosio je 1,5 milion lira. Investitor je formirao anonimno društvo, na 15 go-dine, „Zadružna režija crnogorskog du-vana“ – Regia Cinnteressata dei tabacchi del Montenegro“ sa sjedištem i Veneciji.

Akcionari su uplatili 3/10 osnivačkog ka-pitala i na ovom mjestu značajno je navesti njihova imena, a to su: Roberto Paganini, Ruđero Revedini, Piero Foskari, Đovani Panteleo, Đusepe Volpi, Nikola Papadopuli, Vitorio Tito Braida. Za predsjednika je iza-bran Đusepe Volpi (GiuseppeVolpi 1877 – 1947.) bivši guverner Tripolisa i ministar fi nansija Kraljevine Italije.

U jedno trenutku svoje impresivne ka-rijere Volpi je bio suvlasnik 55 preduzeća

među kojima su nama posebno zanim-ljiva društva u kojima je bio predsjednik li podpedsjednik: ■ SADE (Società Adriatica di

Elettricità) ■ Cellina (električna centrala), ■ Idroelettrica Veneta, ■ Società Italia Centrale, ■ Società Pugliese Elettricità, ■ Mineraria Elettrica del Valdarno, ■ Sviluppo Imprese Elettriche, ■ Marchigiana Imprese Elettriche, ■ Offi cine Galileo, ■ Elettrica Venezia Giulia, ■ Società Italo-Americana Elettricità, ■ Credito Industriale di Venezia, ■ Cantieri Navali e Acciaierie Venezia, ■ Porto Industriale di Venezia, ■ Compagnia di Antivari, ■ Società Veneta dei Beni Immobili, ■ Società Veneziana Beni Immobili,

monopol duvana u Crnoj gori

U 20. vijek Crna Gora je ušla kao izuzetno nerazvijena i siromašna država bez ijednog industrijskog pogona. Ideja nije nedostajalo ali je, kao i danas, najteže bilo doći do novca, kredita ili stranog investitora da uloži novac u zemlju koja je nije imala putnu i energetsku infrastrukturu, a njen kadrovski potencijal bio je gotovo zanemarljivMiodrag KirsanovCentralna banka Crne Gore

Statut Monopola duvana / Tobacco Monopoly Statute


PAST AND PRESENT TIME

In the very beginning of the century the-re were thoughts about establishing a to-

bacco processing company in order to take advantage of tobacco that would be pro-cessed and exported abroad. Activities for the realization of this idea were accelera-ted aiming to fi nd new sources to fi ll in the empty State Treasury. As soon as the pub-lic heard that Montenegro intends to give concession for tobacco, the following com-panies announced their interest: Belgium, whose representative Emil Van Zel d‘Arlon made a serious proposal for the establis-hment of a tobacco monopoly, a Union of Constantinople, representatives of compa-nies from Cairo, agents of Austrian compa-nies, Ante Deskovic as a representative of Arthur Bitner with the Dutch capital, and Filip Luksic - military supplier, who made the monopoly project in which he took care of Montenegrin interests, and the Italians Giovanni and Antonio Baldacci who so-unded the fi eld which opened way to the Italian capital and its interests. Botanist Antonio Baldacci wrote several books on the Montenegrin fl ora, and up to 1925, he was actively involved in the political fi ght for Montenegrin independence.

According to one version of the story, in 1902, Prince Danilo attempted to provide loan of 300,000 lire from Italian banks, for the opening of the tobacco monopoly, but he did not succeed, probably due to inter-ference of Milutin Vesnic, Serbian diplo-mat related to Honorary Vice Consul of Serbia in Venice, Giuseppe Volpi. Another version, probably the true one, is that Lujo Vojnovic, plenipotentiary representative of Montenegro in Vatican invited gentle-men Giuseppe Volpi, Pierre Foskari and Roberto Revedini to visit the Principality, thus setting a cornerstone for a series of

initiatives to be taken for the development of the country.

On 19 or 31 January 1903, „Previous permission“ of the State Council was es-tablished accepting the proposal Ruggiero Revedini and Giuseppe Volpi who com-mitted themselves to provide funds in the amount of at least 1.5 million francs for the establishment of a state monopo-ly of tobacco within two months In turn, the Montenegrin government has pled-ged to establish a tobacco monopoly in a way that it will not be able to give a mi-nor advantage of thirty thousand crowns. Investors kept the right to govern the com-pany‘s administration through the tripar-tite Council chaired by a representative of the Montenegrin Government. All tech-nical staff was from Italy, whereas all ot-ter staff members were Montenegrins. It was agreed to replace foreign staff mem-bers by the local staff in due time.

A concession was given to 15-year pe-riod with the repurchase right of the Montenegrin Government aft er 10 years. Th us, all interested parties dropped out of the race for a tobacco monopoly con-cession, regardless of the quality of ten-ders and their advantages for Montenegro.

Agreement on granting a concession was reached on18 or 31 May 1903, and investments amounted to 1.5 million lire. Th e employ-er has established an anonymous compa-ny “Collective Setting of the Montenegrin Tobacco“ (Regia Cinnteressata dei tabac-chi del Montenegro) for the period of 15 years, with headquarters and Venice.

Shareholders paid 3/10 of the initial capital and at this point it is important to mention their names: Roberto Paganini, Revedini Ruggiero, Piero Foskari, Giovanni Panteleo, Giuseppe Volpi, Nikola Papadopuli, and

Vittorio Tito Braida. Giuseppe Volpi was elected to be a President is (GiuseppeVolpi 1877-1947), former Governor of Tripoli and the Minister of Finance of the Kingdom of Italy.

At one point of his impressive career, Volpi was a co-owner of 55 companies among which we were particularly inte-rested in those in which he was President or Vice president: ■ SADE (Società Adriatica di

Elettricità) ■ Cellina (electric power plant), ■ Idroelettrica Veneta, ■ Società Italia Centrale, ■ Società Pugliese Elettricità, ■ Mineraria Elettrica del Valdarno, ■ Sviluppo Imprese Elettriche, ■ Marchigiana Imprese Elettriche, ■ Offi cine Galileo, ■ Elettrica Venezia Giulia, ■ Società Italo-Americana Elettricità, ■ Credito Industriale di Venezia, ■ Cantieri Navali e Acciaierie Venezia, ■ Porto Industriale di Venezia, ■ Compagnia di Antivari, ■ Società Veneta dei Beni Immobili, ■ Società Veneziana Beni Immobili, ■ Cartiera Reali, ■ Compagnia Italiana Grandi Alberghi, ■ Associazione fra le Società Italiane

per Azioni.Th eir shareholders are usually the per-sons connected to them, who are listed as shareholders in the company. Almost half of companies produced and distri-buted electricity. In a closer perspecti-ve, Volpi probably planned to purchase also the concession for the construction of hydropower plants because he was in-troduced to the Montenegrin needs by the engineer Ante Deskovic who promo-

Tobacco monopolyin montenegroAt the beginning of 20th century, Montenegro was a very underdeveloped and poor country without any industrial plant. The ideas were there, but, as well as today, the most diffi cult was to get cash, loan or foreign investor for the county that had no road and energy infrastructure, its human potential was almost negligibleMiodrag KirsanovCentral Bank od Montenegro

GIuseppe Volpi

Statut Monopola duvana / Tobacco Monopoly Statute

jun 2010 | :Bankar

100

■ Cartiera Reali, ■ Compagnia Italiana Grandi Alberghi, ■ Associazione fra le Società Italiane

per Azioni.

Njihovi akcionari po pravilu su iste oso-be ili lica povezana sa njima, a koja smo naveli kao akcionare u društvu, a gotovo polovina društava bavila se proizvodnjom i distribucijom električne energije. U ne-koj bližoj perspektivi Volpi je vjerovatno planirao da otkupi i koncesije za izgradnju hidroelektrana jer je sa crnogorskim po-trebama bio upoznat od strane inžinjera Anta Deškovića koji je u Zapadnoj Evropi promovisao crnogorske privredne resur-se. Ante Dešković je u oktobru 1902. go-dine boravio u Veneciji. U iscrpnom izla-ganju zainteresovanima je predočio pred-nosti ulaganja u Crnu Goru. Za realizaci-ju su nuđene sljedeće koncesije: izgradnja i korišćenje Barske luke u trajanju od 50 godina; izgradnja i iskorišćavanje železni-ce Nikšić- Bar u trajanju 75 godina uz ga-ranciju 5 odsto dobiti na uloženi kapital u ova preduzeća.

Ugovorom o koncesiji predviđeno je da država obezbijedi potpuni monopol duva-na, koji će obuhvatiti proizvodnju i pro-daju svake vrste domaćih duvana i u tom smislu do kraja godine donese odgova-rajući zakon. Sa druge strane društvo je bilo u obavezi da u Podgorici izgradi mo-dernu fabriku, magazine u Baru, Cetinju i Nikšiću, prodavnice u svim mjestima u Crnoj Gori i dva ili više oglednih polja radi unaprijeđenja gajenja duvana.

Svo potrebno zemljište ustupila je cr-nogorska vlada besplatno.

Čista dobit od proizvodnje, po odbit-ku 5% kamate na neamortizovani kapital (uložena sredstva su smatrana kao zajam crnogorske vlade), amortizacije i svih troš-kova, dijeli se na sljedeći način: 80% cr-nogorskoj vladi i 20% društvu. Suprotno ovome, čist prihod dijelio se obrnuto: 80% društvu i 20 % vladi. Predstavnik crnogor-ske vlade u upravi društva nadzirao je ra-čunsko poslovanje društva.

Ključni zakonski akt donio je knjaz Nikola 8/23 juna 1903. godine kada je potpisao „Zakon o monopolu duvana u Knjaževini Crnoj Gore“, a koji je stu-pio na snagu 1. Novembra 1903. godine. Zakonom je propisano da „pravo proi-zvodnje, prerade i prodaje duvana u Crnoj Gori isključivo ima država.“ Ovo pravo je preneseno na upravu Monopola duva-na koji određuje vrste i količine duvana koje će se saditi, otkupne i prodajne cije-ne. Istovremeno ima pravo nadzora i izri-canja prekršajnih mjera.

Istovremeno je ograničeno pravo uvo-za prerađenog duvana na 10 kilograma po osobi godišnje i potpuno zabranio uvoz ne-prerađenog duvana. Fabrika u Podgorici proizvodila je četiri vrste cigareta, četiri vrste rezanog duvana i dvije vrste burmu-ta (fi ni duvanski prah koji se ušmrkuje).

Zakonodavac se izvanredno pobrinuo da zaštiti interese Uprave Monopola ali je propuštio da zaštiti interese države i njenih građana, najvjerovatnije iz razloga što su Italijani donosili gotove prijedloge teks-tova normativnih akata i o njima se nije imalo vremena ili nije moglo raspravljati.

Društvo je odmah počelo sa gradnjom objekata u Baru, Cetinju i drugim mjesti-ma, a već 1904. godine završena je i fabri-ka u Podgorici i svečano puštena u rad 19. maja 1905. godine. Ukupno je investirano 2.147.047,27 kruna, tj. oko 650.000 kruna preko planiranog osnivačkog kapitala čime je crnogorska vlada dodatno zadužena.

Na kraju 1904. godine bilans društva izgledao je ovako:

Ova nepredviđena situacija imala je za posljedicu izmjene u ugovora, pa i sa-mog društva, čiji su akcionari izvršili do-kapitalizaciju od 1,5 do 2,5 miliona kru-na. Na skupštini akcionara nominalno je raspušteno staro i formirano novo druš-tvo pod nazivom „Crnogorsko anonimno društvo“ – „Montenegrina società ano-nima“, a trajanje koncesije produženo na 25. godina. Kao novi akcionari pojavlju-

ju se Trgovačka italijanska banka i Anđelo Sperti. Donešena su nova akta društva koja je priznala crnogorska vlada, a na-kon njih 20/03. jula 1905. godine i novi Zakon o monopolu duvana. U njemu je eksplicitno rečeno da je „ova ustanova au-tonomna i nezavisna od svih izvršnih or-gana Knjaževine“. Sve vlasti su bile u oba-vezi da na poziv Uprave Monopola ukažu svaku pomoć moralnu i materijalnu, radi vršenja odredbi ovog zakona. Iste godine donesen je Pravilnik o administraciji i ra-čunovodstvu koji je još više učvrstio polo-žaj i nezavisnost ovog društva. Vladin ko-mesar, kojeg imenuje Državni savjet, nema pravo odlučivanja o organima društva ali može da prisustvuje sjednicama, pregle-da poslovne knjige, odobrava bilanse i sl.

Ustanovljena je naročita služba žan-darmskog osoblja Uprave Monopola ko-joj su Oblasni upravitelji, u slučaju potre-be, morali staviti svoje žandarme na raspo-laganje, a to su istovremeno bile obavezne i vojne vlasti.

Zanimljivo je da je na svjetskoj izložbi u Liježu 1905. Crna Gora osvojila Gran pri nagradu za duvan, koji je izložio Monopol duvana iz Podgorice. Po novom zako-nu proizvodile su se četiri vrste cigare-ta: „Nemanja“, „Balša Cetinje“, „Zeta“ i „Arvanit“, pet vrsta rezanog duvana i dvije vrste burmuta.

I u ovoj godini došlo je do poveća-nja uloženog kapitala koji je sada iznosio preko 2.800.000 kruna da bi taj iznos u: ■ 1907. iznosio 3.479.300, 00 kruna ■ 1908. iznosio 3.678.142,28 kruna ■ 1909. iznosio 3.336.505,15 perpera ■ 1910. iznosio 3.288.677,55 perpera.

Dug Crne Gore se do 1910. godine ud-vostručio, a njena fi nansijska dobit od du-vana bila je mala i jedva je pokrivala inte-res na uloženi kapital. Crnogorsko tržište duvana uglavnom je preferiralo rezani du-van pa su se zbog toga cigarete loše pro-davale. Crnogorci su tada pušili svega 35 cigareta godišnje po stanovniku.

Zbog lošeg kvaliteta neprodati duvan go-milao se u magazinima, a kako je ukupan

VREMENA PROŠLA I SADAŠNJA

Izgradnja zgradau Podgorici i Baru 740.532,93

Zgrada kupljena u Pristanu (Bar) za stanove činovnika 30.021,42

Pokretni materijal i postavljanje mašina 217.468,95

Najmovi nepokretnina 14.245,85

Prethodni i razni troškovi 264.518,74

Preostatak i nepreraðenogi preraðenog duvanaod 31.12.0904.

359.456,99

Novac unaprijed dat gajiteljima 6.538,55

Razni artikli potrošnjeu magazinima u Podgoricii Baru

43.106,06

Dug crnogorske vlade(po tekućem računu) 77.596,88

Zajam Cetinjske opštinesa interesom 5% do 31.12.1904.

29.921,19

Put Rijeka Crnojevića – Virpazar (troškovi gradnjei interes 5 %)

340.272,65

Kredit crnogorske vlade 23.367,06

SVEGA (KRUNA): 2.147.047,27

Crnogorski paviljon u Liježuna Svjetskoj izložbi 1905. godine /Montenegrin Pavilion at the World Fair, 1905


PAST AND PRESENT TIMEted Montenegrin economic resources in Western Europe. In October 1902, Ante Deskovic visited Venice. He presented the advantages of investing in Montenegro. Th e following concessions were off ered for the construction and use of Bar harbour for 50 years; the Niksic-Bar railway con-struction and exploitation in the period of 75 years with the guarantee of 5% pro-fi t on invested capital in these companies.

Th e concession contract stipulated that the state should provide a full tobacco mo-nopoly, which would include manufactu-ring and selling of all kinds of domestic to-bacco. In this regard, the relevant law had to be enacted by the end of that year. On the other hand, the society was obliged to build a modern factory in Podgorica, warehouses in Bar, Cetinje and Niksic, shops in all Montenegrin towns, and two or more experimental fi elds in order to improve cultivation of tobacco. All neces-sary land was ceded by the Montenegrin Government for free.

Aft er deducing 5% interest on non-de-preciated capital (invested funds referred to loan of the Montenegrin Government), depreciation and all expenses, net income from production, is divided as follows: 80% to the Montenegrin Government and 20% to the company. Contrary to this, net income was distributed to the other way around: 80% to the company and 20% to the Government. A representative of the Montenegrin Government the company‘s administration supervised its accounting.

Prince Nikola enacted a key act on 8 or 23 June 1903, when he signed the Tobacco Monopoly Law in the Principality of Montenegro, which came into force on 1 November 1903. Th e Law stipulates that „only the state has the right of produc-tion, processing and sale of tobacco in Montenegro.“ Th is right is transferred to the Tobacco Monopoly administration, which determined the types and quanti-ties of tobacco to be planted, purchasing and selling prices. At the same time, it had the right to supervise and impose misde-meanour measures.

Th e right of processed tobacco import was limited to 10 pounds per person an-nually, while the import of unprocessed tobacco was completely prohibited. Th e company in Podgorica produced 4 types of cigarettes, 4 kinds of cut tobacco and two types of snuff (fi ne tobacco powder for snuffi ng).

Th e legislator perfectly took care about the Monopoly administration interests but failed to protect the interests of the state and its citizens, probably because Italians

were bringing ready-made proposals of nor-mative acts, the ones for which there was no time or could not be discussed about.

Th e company immediately started with facilities construction in Bar, Cetinje, and other towns. In 1904, the plant in Podgorica was constructed and formally put into ope-ration on 19 May 1905. Total investment amounted to 2,147,047.27crowns (kruna), i.e. about 650,000 crowns over the planned initial capital, which made Montenegrin Government additionally indebted.

At end-1904, the balance sheet of the

company looked like this:

Th is contingency had resulted in chan-ges of the contract, as well as the company, whose shareholders increased capital from 1.5 to 2.5 million crowns. Th e Shareholders‘ Assembly nominally dissolved the old and formed a new company under the name „Anonymous Company of Montenegro“ (Montenegrina Società Anonima) and

extended the duration of the concession to 25 years. New shareholders were Italian Merchant Bank and Angelo Sperti. Th e new company‘ acts were recognized by the Montenegrin Government, as well as the new Tobacco Monopoly Law as of 20 or 03 July 1905. It explicitly stated that „this institution is autonomous and inde-pendent of all executive authorities of the Principality. All authorities were obliged to provide moral and material support upon the call of Monopoly administration, for the purpose of the implementation of this Law. In the same year the Regulation on the Administration and Accounting was enacted. Th is Regulation further consoli-dated the position and independence of this company. Th e Government commis-sioner, appointed by the State Council had no right to decide on company‘s bodies, but, for example, he could attend mee-tings, review business records and appro-ve the balance sheet.

A special police service of the Monopoly administration was established. District administrators as well as military autho-rities, if necessary, should have to put at the disposal their own police forces to the Monopoly Administration.

At the world fair ion in Liege in 1905, Montenegro won the Grand Prix award for tobacco, exhibited by the Tobacco Monopoly from Podgorica. Th e new law prescribed production of four types of cigarettes: „Nemanja“, „Balsa Cetinje“, „Zeta“ and „Arvanit“, types of cut to-bacco and two types of snuff .

In that year, there was an increase in in-vested capital, amounting to over 2.8 million crowns. In 1907, it amounted 3,479,300.00 crowns, in 1908 to 3,678,142.28 crowns, in 1909 to 3,336,505.15 perpers and in 1910 to 3,.288,677.55 perpers.

Up to 1910, Montenegrin debt doub-led, and its fi nancial profi t from tobac-co was low, barely covering the interest on invested capital. Montenegrin tobac-co market preferred cut tobacco and the-refore the sale of cigarettes was poor. At that time, Montenegrins smoked only 35 cigarettes per capita observed annually.

Due to poor quality, unsold tobacco was piling up in warehouses, and as the

Zgrada Monopola duvana u Podgorici /Tobacco Monopoly Building in Podgorica

Žandarmi Monopola duvana / Tobacco Monopoly Police

Construction of buildingsin Podgorica and Bar 740,532.93

The building for officials purchased in Pristan (Bar) 30,021.42

Movable materialand installing machines 217,468.95

Renting of real estates 14,245.85

Previous and misc. expenses 264,518.74

Rest of unprocessedand processed tobaccoon 31 December 1904

359,456.99

Money given in advanceto breeders 6,538.55

Various consumptionproducts in warehousesin Podgorica and Bar

43,106.06

Montenegro‘s government debt (current account) 77,596.88

Municipality of Cetinje loan with an interest of 5% on 31 December 1904

29,921.19

Rijeka Crnojevića road - Virpazar (construction costs and 5% of interest)

340,272.65

Loan of Montenegrin govern. 23,367.06

TOTAL (CROWNS): 2,147,047.27

jun 2010 | :Bankar

102 iznos duga pripadao Crnoj Gori tako su Italijani malo vodili računa o umrtvlje-nom kapitalu na zalihama.

Nezadovoljstvo u narodu bilo je ve-liko jer je crnogorski seljak navikao da slobodno proizvodi i prodaje svo-je proizvode na pazarima ili da viško-ve prodaje državi. Sad je morao da radi za mizernu dnevnicu od nekoliko nov-čića i prodaje svoj duvan po pretjera-no niskim cijenama. Represija koju je nametnuo Zakon o monopolu duvana izazvala je masovnu pojavu šverca du-vana i duvanskih proizvoda koju niko nije mogao da zaustavi uprkos trudu državnih i monopolskih vlasti. Umjesto da se poveća proizvodnja duvana i po-boljša njegov kvalitet dešavalo se sup-rotno, a otkupne cijene duvana bile su i do šest puta manje od prodajnih cije-na duvanskih proizvoda. Na Monopol duvana narod je gledao sa prezirom i nikako nije mogao da shvati zbog čega mora da podnosi sve veća poniženja od monopolskih vlasti.

Kulminacija se desila 1910. godine kada je Narodna skupština odobrila povećanje cijene duvanskih proizvoda za 50% jer je crnogorska vlada samo na taj način mogla da obezbijedi servisira-nje duga prema Monopolu, a ceh je kao i obično platio narod.

Duvanski kombinat Podgorica je nedavno, nakon 107 godina rada, uveden u stečaj. U Mojkovcu je po-čeo da radi novi prerađivač duvana pod imenom „Tara“, koji je odmah dobio „čuvenu“ Zlatnu medalju na Skopskom sajmu.

Bez obzira na sve negativne aspek-te davanja koncesije na duvan Crna Gora je imala i određenih dobitaka koje Italijani nijesu mogli odnijeti sa sobom. Ostale su zgrade, put Rijeka Crnojevića – Virpazar, cetinjski vo-dovod, navika da se sadi, prerađuje i pomalo švercuje duvan, zametnu-ta je klica industrijske proizvodnje, radničkog organizovanja i sl.

Vlasnici Monopola duvana osnovali su 1906. godine „Barsko društvo“ za ek-sploataciju barskog pristaništa i izgrad-nju željezničke pruge Bar – Virpazar. Koncesiju za isušivanje ulcinjskog po-lja dobilo je društvo Bravi. Oni su u Crnu Goru, naravno zarad svojih inte-resa , investirali 10 miliona perpera koji su za tadašnje prilike predstavljali izu-zetno veliku sumu.

total amount of the debt belonged to Montenegro, Italians did not care much about the dormant stock capital.

Dissatisfaction among the people was high because the Montenegrin peasant was accustomed to freely pro-duce and sell products to markets or to sell surpluses to the state. Now he had to work for miserable allowan-ce of a few coins and sell tobacco at low prices. Repression imposed by the Tobacco Monopoly Law caused smuggling of tobacco and its products, which could not be seized despite the eff orts of state and Monopoly autho-rities. Instead of production increa-se and quality improvement, the op-posite happened, and purchase pri-ces of tobacco products were up to six times lower than the retail prices. Citizens observed Tobacco Monopoly with contempt and could not under-stand why they had to suff er humilia-tion of growing monopoly authorities.

Th e situation escalated in 1910, when the National Assembly approved the increase in prices of tobacco products by 50% because this was the only solu-tion of the Montenegrin Government to service debt to the Monopoly, and citizens, as usual, paid the guild.

Aft er 107 years of work, the ban-kruptcy was introduced in the Tobacco company from Podgorica. Th e new to-bacco processor “Tara” was establis-hed in Mojkovac. It received golden medal at the Skopje Fair.

Regardless of all negative aspects of giving concessions to tobacco, Montenegro realized certain profi ts that the Italians could not take away. Buildings, Rijeka Crnojevića road - Virpazar, Cetinje water supply sys-tem, the habit of planting, proces-sing and smuggling tobacco remai-ned. For example, industrial produc-tion initiated and labour force began to form its organisation. In 1906, the Tobacco Monopoly owners establis-hed the “Association of Bar” for the exploitation of the port of Bar and the construction of the railway Bar - Virpazar. Th e concession for drai-ning Ulcinj fi elds was given the com-pany Brava. For the sake of their inte-rests, they invested 10 million perpers in Montenegro, which represented a very large sum at that time.v

VREMENA PROŠLA I SADAŠNJA / PAST AND PRESENT TIME

bili smo naivni, ili sebiČni, ili korisToljubivi...Vojvoda Gavro Vuković, ugledni pravnik i cr-nogorski diplomata, u svojim memoarima je zapisao da je Crna Gora zbog siromaštva i želje da izađe iz svog čobanskog života morala pri-stati na uslove venecijanskog sindikata iza ko-jega je stajala italijanska vlada. Do uspostav-ljanja društva Italijani su bili ljubazni, popust-ljivi i laskavi, a kad su postigli ono što su željeli postali su oholi, silni i zauzeli diktatorski ton. Za Italiju kaže da je „počela bila osvajati Crnu Goru ekonomski, da joj posluži njenim poli-tičkim aspiracijama na Balkanskom poluostr-vu. Mi smo ovoga puta bili svjesni, ali se nijes-mo mogli izviti iz toga položaja. Siromašni do bez kraja, izostali u industrijskim preduzećima mimo svih ostalih naroda bili smo prinuđeni silom prilika upasti u čeljusti jedne velike na-cije, koja nam je pružila svoje kapitale, istina za uzajamne interese, a osobeno da nas stavi na putu ekonomskog preporođaja. Mi pak da se nijesmo bacili u naručja političkih špeku-lanata italijanskih, već da smo ih odstranili od politike, mogli smo se koristiti njihovim kapi-talima, iskustvom i kultu-rom, ali smo bili ili naivni, ili sebični, ili koristoljubivi, te su oni bili uzeli odsudni mah i upliv u poslovima“.

We Were naive or selfisH or GreedY...Duke Gavro Vukovic, a pro-minent Montenegrin lawyer and diplomat, in his memoirs wrote that Montenegro had to ag-ree to the terms of the Venetian Trade Union supported by the Italian Government, due to poverty and the desire to step out of its cow-boy life. Until the establishment of the com-pany, Italians were kind, indulgent, and fl atte-ring, and when they achieved what they wan-ted they became arrogant, mighty and true dictators. Th ere is a saying that Italy began to conquer Montenegro economically, that wo-uld serve as their political aspirations towar-ds the Balkan Peninsula. We have been awa-re of this, but we could not buckle from that position. Being very poor, without industrial companies, we were compelled to fall into the jaws of a great nation that gave us its capital of mutual interests, in order to recover our eco-nomy. If we ignored Italian political specula-tors, and removed them from politics, we wo-uld have been able to use their capital, expe-rience and culture, but we were either naive, or selfi sh, or greedy, and they took the advan-tage and assumed the business.

Vojvoda/Duke Gavro Vukovic