Kondisi Ketimpangan di Indonesia

Arief Anshory YusufCEDS, Universitas Padjadjaran

Seminar “ketimpangan pembangunan Indonesia dari berbagai aspek: Mengurai Tantangan Pembangunan di Era Pemerintahan Baru”

Jakarta, 21 Agustus 2014

www.ceds.fe.unpad.ac.id

Empowering Civil Society Networks in an Unequal Multi‐Polar World – Indonesia (ECSN–Indonesia)

OutlineOutline

1 Indonesian level and trend of inequality in1. Indonesian level and trend of inequality in a global perspective.

2 The trend of Indonesian various2. The trend of Indonesian various indicators inequality

3 Th d A l ti3. The causes and cures: An exploration

Indonesia can be categorized as a country of high inequality and low income, ..

Source: CIA, World Fact Book, 2013, World Bank WDI, and author’s calculation

.. and also of high inequality and high poverty.a d a so o g equa ty a d g po e ty

ZAF

60

HIGH POVERTY

LOW POVERTYHIGH INEQUALITY

CHLCRI

ECU

BRA

PER

PRYPAN

COL

SLV

BOL HND

SWZ

CAF

RWA

NGA

ZMB

50

HIGH POVERTYHIGH INEQUALITY

INDONESIA

LTU

URYARGMYS

THA

MEX

TUR

MKD

DOM

BTN

PER SLV

FJICHN

CMR

GEOIDN CIV

MRTTGO

SEN

UGAAGO

GIN BFA

MOZMWI MDG

LBR

40Gin

i Ind

ex

MEDIAN INEQUALITY

INDONESIA

HRV

BLR

BIH

POL

WBG

BGR

LTU

LVA

KAZ

JOR

ROM

AZEALBTUN

MDA

EGY ARMIRQ

KGZ

LKA

TJK

VNMSDN KHM

NPLETHIND NER

BGDMLI

SLE

BDI

30

HIGH POVERTY

OVE

RTY

UKRBLRSVK

20

0 20 40 60 80 100$

LOW INEQUALITYLOW POVERTY

LOW INEQUALITY

MED

IAN

PO

PPP$2 Poverty Incidence

Source: World Bank Poverty & Inequality DatabaseNote: Using the most recent data from the last 5 years (2007-2011) where available.

Among developing countries, the increase in Indonesian inequality over the last decade is q yamong the highest, while most others declined.

Source: World Bank Poverty & Inequality DatabaseNote: The inequality indicators are three-years average where data available.

Indonesian Gini coefficient has reached its record high, contributed by its large increase in the last g , y gdecade. For the last decade it rise by ~30%

Source: SUSENAS (Author’s calculation)

By other measure, the rise is ~60% (Palma Index or decile dispersion(Palma Index or decile dispersion

ratio)Palma Index Decile Dispersion Ratio

1.95

2.15

2.35Palma Index = share 10% richest/share 40%

11

12

13

14Mean income of 10% richest to 10% poorest

1.35

1.55

1.75 poorest

8

9

10

11

0 75

0.95

1.15

1.35

5

6

7

0.75

Palma Index (All) Palma Index (Urban)

419

93

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

All Indonesia Urban RuralPalma Index (Rural) Java Non-Java

As also indicated by the increasing share of the 20% richest and declining share of 40% poorest20% richest, and declining share of 40% poorest.

Source: SUSENAS (Author’s calculation)

The large increase in equality happens everywhere in Indonesiaeverywhere in Indonesia.

Source: SUSENAS (Author’s calculation)

The lower the initial inequality, the higher its change over time (Inequality convergence)change over time (Inequality convergence).

Source: SUSENAS (Author’s calculation)

In a large number of highly unequal cities, poverty incidence actually increased over the last decade. This is despite the cities’ high economic growthThis is despite the cities high economic growth and national decline in poverty over the same period.

4.5 HIGH INEQUALITY

DECLINING POVERTYHIGH INEQUALITYINCREASING POVERTY

.3.4

ffici

ent i

n 20

12

MEDIAN INEQUALITY

.2G

ini c

oef

ERTY

CH

AN

GE

.1

-20 -10 0 10

LOW INEQUALITYDECLINING POVERTY

LOW INEQUALITYINCREASING POVERTY

ZER

O P

OVE

Change in poverty incidence (2003-2013)

Non-city (kabupaten) City (kota)

Source: SUSENAS (Author’s calculation, for Gini coefficient) and BPS (for poverty incidence)

Is the story mainly about the very rich leaving everyone else behind? It may seem soeveryone else behind? It may seem so.

Source: SUSENAS (Author’s calculation)

Causes: An explorationCauses: An exploration• Less and less pro-poor growthLess and less pro poor growth• Commodity boom of the 2000s• Policy failures – political economy bottleneckPolicy failures political economy bottleneck

– Mis-targetted subsidy– Rice policyp y– Labor market regulation

• Institutions, governance, corruption• Failed functioning of state-budget• Inequality of opportunity

less pro-poor growthless pro poor growth8

75

6ed

ian

splin

e

2002-2012

34

Me

1990-1996

2

0 20 40 60 80 100Percentiles

Inequality of opportunity?Inequality of opportunity?6.00 Schooling years (year) 40.00 H.Education (%) 40.00 Clean water (%)

4.00

5.00

25 00

30.00

35.00

25 00

30.00

35.00

2.00

3.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1.00

2.00

5.00

10.00

5.00

10.00

0.000.00

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

0.00

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Gap between 20% richest and 20% poorest

KESENJANGAN AKSES TERHADAP PENDIDIKAN MASIH SANGAT TINGGI TALENT POOL RENDAHMASIH SANGAT TINGGI – TALENT POOL RENDAH

Lama sekolah (tahun)Angka partisipasi murniSMALama sekolah (tahun) SMA

9 19.710

12

61% 62%

69%0.7

0.8

5.4

7.9

9.1

6

8

0.4

0.5

0.6

3.4

4.65.4

2

419%

28%

0.2

0.3

0

2

1992 2002 2012

6%

0

0.1

1992 2002 2010

20% termiskin (Q1) 20% terkaya (Q5) 20% termiskin (Q1) 20% terkaya (Q5)

Sumber: www.keberpihakan.org

PERGURUAN TINGGI MASIH EKSKLUSIFPT ADALAH PENGHASIL INOVATOR DAN WIRAUSAHAWAN

36.7%40%Angka partisipasi murni PT

25.6% 26.3%

36.7%

30%

35%

15%

20%

25%

1 3%5%

10%

15%

0.1% 0.6% 1.3%0%

1992 2002 2010

20% t i ki (Q1) Q2 Q3 Q4 20% t k (Q2)20% termiskin (Q1) Q2 Q3 Q4 20% terkaya (Q2)

Sumber: www.keberpihakan.org

In Heckman (2001)

KUALITAS KESEHATAN ANAK BALITA INDONESIA RENDAHBALITA INDONESIA RENDAH

Pct of 5 years of age who are Stunted

Percentage of Children under 5 years of age Affected by WastingStunted years of age Affected by Wasting

47.9

40 9

50

6012.3

10.89.710

12

14

40.9 39.235.1

32.3 30.530

40

9.7

7.9 7.3 6.9

4.73 6

6

8

10

17.2 15.7

4.4

0

10

20 3.6

0

2

4

0

Sumber: FAO Food Insecurity Database

Cure: Equity for GrowthKeadilan untuk Pertumbuhan

PERTUMBUHAN PRODUKTIVITAS/ NEGARA

EKONOMI TINGGIDAYA SAINGLINGKUNGAN PENDUKUNG

PENDIDIKAN

INOVASI

KEADILAN/

PRAKONDISI

PEMERATAAN

PENDIDIKAN

MODAL PEMBANGUNAN PEMERATAANKESEMPATAN

KESEHATAN

INSANI MANUSIA

KESEHATAN

Terima KasihTerima Kasih