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Mining Monitor (August 2017) Strategic Research Division, Corporate Research Office 7 August 2017 The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. MUFG Union Bank, N.A.

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Mining Monitor (August 2017)

Strategic Research Division, Corporate Research Office

7 August 2017

The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.MUFG Union Bank, N.A.

Table of Contents

1. Overview 3

2. Iron Ore 5

3. Coal 8

4. Copper 11

5. Aluminum 14

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 2

6. Nickel 17

7. Zinc 20

8. Gold 23

Appendix 26

1. Overview

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 3

Sota KandaStrategic Research Division,Corporate Research OfficeTHE BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ, LTD.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 4

Mined Commodity Price Trends

The prices of mined commodities generally rose in July 2017. Particularly, the prices of raw materials of steel, iron ore and coking coal, increased by over 10%.

1. Overview

Mined Commodity Price Trends

The prices of mined commodities rose in July 2017. Particularly, the prices of raw materials of steel, iron ore and coking coal increased by over 10% MoM as a backdrop of increase of Chinese steel production.

Thermal coal price increased due to hot weather and hydropower supply shortage in China.

As for non-ferrous metals, the prices generally increased. Copper price was supported by demand increase and some strikes. In terms of aluminum, the price was roughly flat as the market wary of possible growth in Chinese output and stocks. Nickel price increased as a backdrop of retreat of the concern of supply increase. With respect to zinc, the price turned upward due to growth of Chinese demand.

The price of gold recovered due to FOMC statement, USD weakness and growth of Chinese demand.

Source: Bloomberg, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

2016Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July

Iron Ore ($/t) 58 81 88 87 71 62 57 67MoM - 1% 10% -1% -19% -12% -8% 17%YoY 5% 92% 88% 56% 17% 13% 10% 17%

Coking Coal ($/t) 142 185 161 157 263 173 147 166MoM - -31% -13% -3% 68% -34% -15% 13%YoY 58% 141% 112% 88% 185% 91% 64% 74%

Thermal Coal ($/t) 65 84 82 81 83 74 79 84MoM - -2% -3% -1% 2% -10% 7% 6%YoY 13% 66% 60% 59% 65% 45% 46% 33%

Copper ($/t) 4,866 5,753 5,950 5,841 5,726 5,619 5,725 6,015MoM - 2% 3% -2% -2% -2% 2% 5%YoY -11% 29% 29% 18% 18% 19% 23% 24%

Aluminum ($/t) 1,605 1,791 1,861 1,901 1,921 1,913 1,885 1,903MoM - 4% 4% 2% 1% 0% -1% 1%YoY -4% 21% 22% 24% 22% 22% 18% 17%

Nickel ($/t) 9,605 9,971 10,643 10,205 9,609 9,155 8,932 9,491MoM - -9% 7% -4% -6% -5% -2% 6%YoY -19% 17% 28% 17% 8% 5% 0% -8%

Zinc ($/t) 2,091 2,715 2,846 2,777 2,615 2,590 2,573 2,787MoM - 2% 5% -2% -6% -1% -1% 8%YoY 8% 79% 66% 54% 41% 39% 27% 28%

Gold ($/oz) 1,250 1,194 1,235 1,231 1,270 1,245 1,260 1,238MoM - 4% 3% 0% 3% -2% 1% -2%YoY 8% 9% 3% -1% 2% -1% -1% -8%

2017

Chloe LimStrategic Research Division (Singapore)THE BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ, LTD.

2. Iron Ore

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 5

Daily iron ore prices rallied in July; they started at $65/t and ended at $74/t. Average price was $67/t, up 17% from the previous month.

The market reacted to China’s optimism following the release of the country’s iron ore demand and macro data in the month.

Growth of Chinese crude steel production (6% YoY) and iron ore imports (16% YoY) were stronger in June. The country’s GDP growth (6.9%) in 2Q’17 was better than market expectation on the back of a pickup in industrial output and ongoing strong investment.

Meanwhile, iron ore port inventories in China remain elevated in July.

6

Iron Ore Prices and Inventories

Prices surged above $70/t in July on the back of market optimism in Chinese iron ore demand.

2. Iron Ore

1) Price Trends

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017

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China Iron Ore Port Inventory (RHS) Iron Ore Fines 62%, CFR China Import Spot Price (LHS)($/t) (Mt)

Source: Bloomberg, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

BHP and Anglo American are expected to keep production strong this year – 21 July, 2017

BHP’s iron ore output grew 4% YoY to 231 million tons in the financial year ending June. Although production at its Pilbara operations was down in the second quarter due to railway disruptions, BHP has been ramping up production at its Jimblebar site in Australia. In the next two years, the Group expects a further 3-5% growth.Similarly, Anglo American’s iron ore production surged 24% YoY in the first half of this year to 30 million tons. It aims to produce 40-42 million tons at its Kumba operations in South Africa and has set a 16-18 million tons target for its operations in Minas-Rio, Brazil for this year.

Rio Tinto lowers its forecast for its iron ore shipments in 2017 – 18 July, 2017

Rio Tinto is expected to export 330 million tons of iron ore in 2017, which is at the lower end of its earlier forecast of 330-340 million tons. The company blamed the bad weather condition experienced earlier this year and modernising of its rail haulage lines for the reduced shipment guidance. In 2016, Rio Tinto shipped 328 million tons of iron ore.

Chinese iron ore buyers have increasingly sourced their supplies from India and Iran this year – 14 July, 2017

Australia experienced the largest volume increase in its iron ore exports to China in the first five months this year. Australian exports to China increased 6% YoY in January-May’17 to 272 million tons. Meanwhile, Brazilian exports to China rose 5% YoY to 91 million tons. On the other hand, China more than tripled its imports from India to 17 million tons over the same period. Chinese imports from Iran also surged 39% YoY to 9 million tons.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 7

2. Iron Ore

2) News Flow

Source: Various sources, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

William CheungStrategic Research Division (Hong Kong)THE BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ, LTD.

3. Coal

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 8

Average global coking coal price recovered to $166/ton in July, up 13.3% from the last month.

The price increase was attributable to growing China’s steel output, which increased by 5.1% YoY to 420 million tons in 1H’17.

Average global thermal coal price rose by 5.8% from the previous month to $84/ton in July.

The price increase was because Chinese utilities needed more thermal coal to generate electricity amid hot temperature in northern China and hydropower supply shortage caused by heavy rainfall in southern China.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 9

Coal Prices

Coking coal price recovered in July due to rising coal demand from China’s steel mills. Thermal coal price rose in July, as utilities needed more coal for power generation amid hot weather and hydropower supply shortage in China.

3. Coal

1) Price Trends

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Spot Price (Coking Coal) Spot Price (Thermal Coal)($/t)

Source: Bloomberg, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

Thermal coal price continues uptrend amid seasonal demand and hydropower supply disruption – 19 July 2017

Thermal coal price continued its uptrend this month and reached $87/ton on 19 July, up from $78/ton on 30 June. The recent price increase was largelybecause of rising thermal coal demand in China, evidenced by China’s coal-fire power generation growing by 7.1% YoY in 1H’17. One reason was thatthe prolonged hot temperature in northern China boosted air-conditioning demand. Another reason was that a huge rainfall in southern China has forcedthe Three Gorges and Gezhouba dams, the country’s major hydropower stations, to reduce as much as two thirds of their capacities to ease pressureon Yangtze River. This caused utilities to switch to coal. According Alfa Energy, an energy consultant in London, thermal coal price might decrease verysoon as many of these conditions should ease next month. But it still dependent on China’s policy on the thermal coal market.

China will take six precautions against abnormal thermal coal price fluctuation – 19 July 2017

China’s NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) has released six precautious measures to prevent recent abnormal fluctuation ofthermal coal prices. These measures include 1) the release of high-quality production capacity, 2) the improvement of transport network for coal, 3) theoptimization of the utilization of clean energy, 4) the engagement of mid-and long-term contracts between coal suppliers and coal consumers in China,5) building the reserve system for coal, and 6) actively guiding the market expectation. NDRC said these measures could minimize the negative impactson coal supply-demand and coal price caused by capacity cut, supply disruption as well as unexpected consumption growth in China.

China meets 74.0% of annual coal capacity cut target as end of June – 18 July 2017

China is on the right track to achieve the coal capacity cut target this year. According to China’s NDRC, the country has removed 111 million tons ofcoal capacity in 1H’17, accounting for 74.0% of annual coal capacity cut target of 150 million tons for 2017. The result was thanks to acceleratingremoval of illegal, inefficient and unsafe coal capacity. NDRC expected that the annual coal capacity cut target could accomplish by the end ofSeptember this year, which will be slightly ahead of the original schedule.

China steel output rise supporting coking coal price recovery – 10 July 2017

Coking coal price had been recovering since late June after a longer fall from a peak in April. Based on the Bloomberg data, global coking coal pricerose to $155/ton on 7 July, up from $141/ton on 19 June. The price increase was attributable to rise in China’s steel output, which grew by 5.1% YoY to420 million tons in 1H’17. According to FBR, an investment bank in the United States, high steel price caused by reduction in low-grade steel capacityand strong steel demand in China have motivated Chinese steelmakers to increase steel output. FBR expects that coking coal price might increasefurther if steel production in China will continue to grow in coming months.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 10

3. Coal

2) News Flow

Source: Various sources, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

Katia TavarezStrategic Research (NY)MUFG UNION BANK, N.A.

4. Copper

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 11

Copper rose 7.9% m-o-m, breaking out of an eight-month trading range to hit a two-year high of $6,383/t at the tail-end of July.

Strong property data out of China and its higher-than-expected 2Q’17 GDP growth rate, together with temporary strikes at various Peruvian mines and an extension of the strike at Grasberg for a fourth month supported prices. But it was news of a potential Chinese ban on some scrap imports from late-2018 that pushed copper through the top of the $5,500-$6,200/t range. A weaker USD also helped.

Inventories at warehouses remain high, but have started to descend as seasonal demand picks up in China and as scrap supply begins to tighten.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 12

Copper Prices and Inventories

Copper prices surged in July, supported mostly by demand-side factors.

4. Copper

1) Price Trends

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COMEX Inventories (RHS) SHFE Inventories (RHS)

LME Inventories (RHS) LME Spot Price (LHS)($/t) (Kt)

Source: Bloomberg, MUFG Union Bank Strategic Research

China may ban some copper scrap imports – 26 July, 2017

According to the China NonFerrous Metals Industry Association, Chinese authorities are reviewing the potential ban of type 7 copper scrap imports as it looks to reduce imports of foreign waste. In 2016, China imported a total of 3.35 million tons of scrap, with type 7 scrap accounting for 300kt. Because type 7 scrap is a low-grade material with a copper content of just 14-15%, its share of total refined imports is just 3%. A ban on scrap imports may lead to an uptick in scrap imports in the short-term, but an increase in refined copper over the medium-term.

Grasberg strike is extended for a fourth-month – 21 July, 2017

Workers at Freeport’s Grasberg said they would extend strike that began on May 1 for a fourth month as an accord has yet to be reached. Around 5,000 workers of Freeport’s workforce in Indonesia are disputing employment terms and layoffs after the company laid off around 10% of its workforce to reduce costs. Freeport expects mining and milling rates at the mine to be affected.

Workers in Peru call off strike – 21 July, 2017

In Peru, workers at 56 unions called off a strike after the government promised to designate a task force that would discuss labor laws with workers. The strike, which began on July 19 to protest proposed labor reforms that, according to the unionized miners, would make firing easier and workplaces less safe, was short-lived and therefore did not affect production. Even so, it led to clashes between police and striking miners.

ICSG estimates copper surplus of 80kt YTD – 20 July, 2017

According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), from Jan-April 2017, the refined copper market recorded a surplus of 80kt (or 220kt when adjusted for Chinese bonded stocks). World mine production is estimated to have fallen (-3.5% y-o-y) as production in Chile dropped sharply (-12%) on account of the Escondida strike and lower production at Codelco. Still, refined production was unchanged as secondary production (from scrap) surged (+12%) on an increased availability of scrap, notably in China. Apparent refined usage is estimated to have fallen (-3%) as demand from China weakened (-7%).

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 13

4. Copper

2) News Flow

Source: Various sources, MUFG Union Bank Strategic Research

Tom HaddonStrategic Research Division (London)THE BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ, LTD.

5. Aluminum

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 14

Aluminum prices in July were generally quiet, finishing just 0.9% down compared to the previous month’s close.

Quiet summer time trading may have helped quell overall price volatility during the month.

However, July continued the trend of prices stalling after a series of positive months from January 2016 through to April 2017.

Prices appear to have hit the ceiling as the market remains wary of possible growth in Chinese output and stocks. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory rose in early to mid-July to over 447kt, some four times higher than the start of the year, offsetting falls in LME inventory.

Aluminum price upside was also limited as the International AluminumInstitute (IAI) released data showing global production had increased 5.8% year-on-year through to June. The data also showed a Chinese daily output record high was hit during the month.Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 15

Aluminum Prices and Inventories

Price gains were limited in July as Chinese stocks rose and data pointed to a ramp up of Chinese production.

5. Aluminum

1) Price Trends

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LME Inventory (RHS) LME Spot Price (LHS)($/t) (Kt)

Source: Bloomberg, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

China says it is willing to work with U.S. on aluminum market issues – 27 July, 2017

China's Ministry of Commerce called for a global approach to tackling problems in the aluminum market as it noted the findings of a probe by the United States into the sector. The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) released a report in June that said the country encouraged aluminumproduction "through low tariffs on imports of raw materials, as well as a variety of programs that provide direct support to aluminum smelters". China’s Ministry responded by saying China was willing to "join hands" with all aluminum producers, including the U.S., to promote the development of a "healthy and stable" industry. This is a significant change in tone from the Chinese government and could signal more commitment to removing capacity in the aluminum market.

Japan aluminium industry fears U.S. trade action may prompt retaliation – 26 July, 2017

apan's aluminium industry is worried that any U.S. trade action to block imports of the metal may result in surplus supply elsewhere and prompt a chain-reaction of retaliation by other nations, the head of a trade body said. Japan, which produces about 2 million tonnes of rolled and extruded aluminium products a year, exported nearly 250,000 tonnes of those products in 2016. About 10 percent of the exported material went to the United States, according to the nation's trade data. If many countries start shutting their doors to imports, it would affect many company's strategies including UACJ as it has a plant in Thailand that was built to become an export base to Oceania, the Middle East and points further west

Norway's Hydro sees balanced global aluminum market in 2017 – 25 July, 2017

One of the world’s largest integrated aluminum producers sees a global primary aluminium deficit in the second quarter. This is driven by increasing deficit outside China. For the full year, it maintains a 4-6% annual aluminium demand growth outlook for 2017 and expect a largely balanced, global aluminium market.

Alcoa tweaks earnings outlook, lifts aluminium demand forecast – 19 July, 2017

The company said it was tightening its outlook for full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to a range of $2.1bn to $2.2bn, down from its previous outlook for Ebitda of as much as $2.3bn. Alcoa maintained its outlook for a modest global surplus of between 300,000 to 700,000 metric tons in aluminium, while lifting its outlook for aluminium demand growth to a range between 4.75 to 5.25%, up from 4.5 to 5% previously.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 16

5. Aluminum

2) News Flow

Source: Various sources, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

Tom HaddonStrategic Research Division (London)THE BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ, LTD.

6. Nickel

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 17

Nickel prices enjoyed a partial rebound in July after several months of downwards price pressure. Prices recovered from an early month low of $8,962 per ton to finish the month at $10,168 – an intra-month gain of over 13%.

Bullish sentiment was driven by a multitude of positive factors. Especially, the newly installed Environment Minister in the Philippines (replacing a staunchly anti-mining predecessor) said that he is in “no rush” to overturn the orders to shutter nickel mines, suggesting mined production will remain limited for some time.

Several key mining majors also reported lower Q2 nickel production during the month with Vale (the world’s largest producer) reporting production down 17% y-o-y as it reacted to the low price environment. Glencore production was also down 11% y-o-y in Q2, due to maintenance at its Canadian operations.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 18

Nickel Prices and Inventories

A quick return of mined supply from the Philippines was seemingly ruled out and some of the majors cut production, helping nickel prices to perform strongly in July.

6. Nickel

1) Price Trends

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LME Inventory (RHS) LME Spot Price (LHS)($/t) (Kt)

Source: Bloomberg, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

Philippines' environment minister says ban on open-pit mining to stay in place – 31 July, 2017

The Philippines' environment minister Roy Cimatu said he would not lift a ban on open-pit mining imposed in April in an anti-pollution crackdown, as an inter-agency mining council reviews how miners are taxed in the Philippines. The previous minister, staunch environmentalist Regina Lopez, led a 10-month campaign to rein in the mining industry, ordering the closure or suspension of 26 mines in the world's top nickel ore supplier and imposing a ban on open-pit mining. Nickel ore output in the Philippines fell 51 percent in the first quarter due to rains and the suspension of mine operations, according to the latest government data available.

Philippines' Duterte warns miners: 'I will tax you to death' – 24 July, 2017

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he wanted to stop exporting mineral resources and might close the mining sector completely and tax miners "to death" if damage to the environment persisted. The country's miners have been under fire by Duterte's government for alleged violations that include building mines in prohibited areas like watersheds. Duterte said miners have "considerably neglected" their duty to protect the environment and to repair damage done by mining. Duterte also said he wanted all mineral resources extracted from the country to be processed domestically before being exported. The last promise of the list is strikingly similar to the ban imposed on Indonesian miners in 2014, designed to hold onto more commodity value domestically.

Vale to focus on copper, nix nickel expansion – 21 July, 2017

Vale said its plan for the near future is to look for new copper mining options and to stop expanding nickel production capacity in the wake of abysmal second-quarter net income, rising costs and tanking iron prices. To reduce costs, Vale CEO Fabio Schvartsman said the company would stop investing new money into its Caledonia nickel mine.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 19

6. Nickel

2) News Flow

Source: Various sources, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

7. Zinc

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 20

Tom HaddonStrategic Research Division (London)THE BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ, LTD.

During July, zinc prices displayed little volatility and largely kept range bound. Therefore prices registered almost no change from month open and closed at $2,785 per ton, a decrease of 0.6%.

Prices were finely balanced during the month as the market appears to be moving towards equilibrium, away from a mined supply deficit which has been in place since 2016.

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) released data in July showing that for 2017 up to June, global mined supply (excluding China) had increased by 11% y-o-y, with the giant Antamina mine in Peru leading the way, shifting from a more copper based output profile.

However, despite increasing supply, Chinese imports data suggested that consumption growth remains more than healthy in the country, with refined zinc imports growing 25% m-o-m during June. This balanced prices as rising production was absorbed by China. Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 21

Zinc Prices and Inventories

Prices were balanced during July has data suggests rising global production is being absorbed by equally robust growth in Chinese consumption.

7. Zinc

1) Price Trends

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LME Inventory (RHS) LME Spot Price (LHS)($/t) (Kt)

Source: Bloomberg, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

Glencore copper production drops in first half, zinc fills the gap – 27 July, 2017

Glencore’s copper output fell 9 percent in the first half of 2017 compared with the same period last year, the company said, as the mining and trading house produced more zinc at its Antamina project. Glencore said the shift at its Antamina mine boosted its total zinc output by 13 per cent, combined with “generally solid performances across the [zinc] portfolio”.

Zinc set to lose its zest as fresh supplies fill gap – 26 July, 2017

Although Glencore said in May it had no plans to restart idled capacity following output cuts made in October 2015, there is concern that new supply will now fill the gap. Global zinc production rose 6.3 per cent in the first five months of 2017, data released in July showed. The metal, which despite its weakness since February is still up 8 per cent this year, is confronting a familiar headache for commodities: a period of higher prices has unleashed new supply. This year’s supply has come from across the world, with increases in production from Eritrea, India, Peru and Turkey. That has more than balanced cuts in Australia and the US, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, which forecasts that output will rise almost 7 per cent this year.

China still relying on zinc concentrate import market – 19 July, 2017

Despite rising zinc output globally, Chinese zinc production was flat at 544,000 tonnes in June and down 1.2% for the first six months of the year.Chinese mines have reportedly been struggling with decline ore grades meaning they cannot fulfil domestic demand for refined zinc. Therefore China is still heavily relying on concentrate imports. This is encouraging more capacity into the market and pushing the global market towards equilibrium. However, a mined supply of zinc in China is set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 22

7. Zinc

2) News Flow

Source: Various sources, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division

Katia TavarezStrategic Research (NY)MUFG UNION BANK, N.A.

8. Gold

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 23

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 24

Gold Prices, ETF Holdings, and 10Yr US TIPS Yield

Gold prices bounce back in July, but remain bound to recent ranges.

8. Gold

1) Price Trends

Gold prices bounced back in July (+2.2% m-o-m), reaching six-week highs in response to a dovish FOMC statement where the Fed referenced low inflation and the balance sheet unwind process. USD weakness (on dovish Fed and political turmoil in the US) and reports of a 51% y-o-y jump in Chinese gold demand in 1H’17 also supported prices.

Despite the rally this month, gold remains bound to the $1,200/oz to $1,300/oz range observed throughout this year.

Money manager net length at the COMEX peaked in early May, but has been on the decline since as speculative positions are trimmed from stretched levels seen early in the year. Gold ETF holdings fell modestly.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.010Yr US TIPS Yield (%)

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10A

pr-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11A

pr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12A

pr-1

2Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13A

pr-1

3Ju

l-13

Oct

-13

Jan-

14A

pr-1

4Ju

l-14

Oct

-14

Jan-

15A

pr-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16A

pr-1

6Ju

l-16

Oct

-16

Jan-

17A

pr-1

7Ju

l-17

(t)ETF Holdings (RHS) Gold Price (LHS)($/oz)

Source: World Gold Council, GFMS, Bloomberg, MUFG Union Bank Strategic Research

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 25

8. Gold

2) News FlowPhysical gold demand rebounds in 1H’17– 27 July, 2017

Physical demand for gold rose 17% y-o-y in 1H’17 to 1,895 tons, according to GFMS. Jewellery consumption rose 15% to 995 tons, mostly as demand from India doubled to 308 tons. ETF demand rose after having been on a downward trend since late-2016, but grew at a slower pace than last year. Global mine production was unchanged at 1,544 tons while scrap supply fell 2% to 1,895 tons. GFMS believes that prices may dip below $1,200/oz over the short-term due to the negative impact of India’s recently announced Goods and Services Tax (GST), but forecasts a recovery later this year on seasonal demand and a rebound in western investment.

Gold ETF holdings rise in June – 24 July, 2017

According to the World Gold Council, Gold ETF holdings rose by 22 tons in June to 2,313 tons. The value of holdings fell 1% m-o-m to US$94 million as gold prices fell on account of the Fed’s hawkish tone that month and strong US labor data. North American and European funds recorded the strongest growth while Chinese funds witnessed a slowdown.

Gold imports in India surge in 1H’17 – 9 July, 2017

Gold imports more than doubled in 1H’17 to 521 tons (vs. 248 tons in 1H’16). In 2016, imports fell to a seven-year low of 510 tons due to demonetization and USD strength. This year, low gold prices and restocking by retailers ahead of the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) pushed demand higher. For this year as a whole, demand is expected to exceed 900 tons, well above the five year average of 709 tons.

Source: Various sources, MUFG Union Bank, Strategic Research

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 26

Appendix : Mined Commodities Price Forecasts by Strategic Research Division as of 24 April 2017

Yr Avg 1Q 2Q 3Q (f) 4Q (f) 1H (f) 2H (f) 1H (f) 2H (f)Iron Ore ($/t) 58 86 63 62 59 57 55 54 52

YoY 5% 78% 13% 5% -16% -23% -8% -6% -6%QoQ - 21% -26% -3% -4% - - - -

Coking Coal ($/t) 142 167 192 153 143 131 120 116 115YoY 58% 112% 111% 15% -47% -27% -19% -12% -4%QoQ - -37% 15% -20% -7% - - - -

Thermal Coal ($/t) 65 82 79 78 71 69 66 65 64YoY 13% 62% 51% 15% -22% -15% -11% -5% -3%QoQ - -10% -4% -1% -8% - - - -

Copper ($/t) 4,866 5,846 5,688 5,725 5,725 5,731 5,768 5,847 5,952YoY -11% 25% 20% 20% 8% -1% 1% 2% 3%QoQ - 11% -3% 1% 0% - - - -

Aluminum ($/t) 1,605 1,851 1,907 1,904 1,933 1,961 1,883 2,021 2,097YoY -4% 22% 21% 18% 13% 4% -2% 3% 11%QoQ - 8% 3% 0% 2% - - - -

Nickel ($/t) 9,605 10,281 9,232 9,112 9,388 9,868 10,370 10,870 11,200YoY -19% 20% 4% -11% -13% 1% 12% 10% 8%QoQ - -5% -10% -1% 3% - - - -

Zinc ($/t) 2,091 2,779 2,593 2,651 2,745 2,871 2,980 2,936 2,849YoY 8% 65% 35% 18% 9% 7% 10% 2% -4%QoQ - 11% -7% 2% 4% - - - -

Gold ($/oz) 1,250 1,220 1,258 1,250 1,250 1,257 1,273 1,276 1,274YoY 8% 3% 0% -6% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0%QoQ - 0% 3% -1% 0% - - - -

Source: Bloomberg, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Strategic Research Division, MUFG Union Bank, Strateg ic Research

20192017 20182016

Disclaimer

Mining Monitor | 7 August 2017 27

This report is intended only for information purposes and is not intended to constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or any other products. Contents of the report are information as at publish date and are subject to change without notice. This report has not been prepared to provide legal, taxational, financial, market-judgmental, or any other advises on propriety of any transactions. In taking any action, each reader is requested to act on the basis of his or her own judgment upon consulting certified lawyers, accountants or other professionals regarding the accuracy, validity and reliability of information appeared in this report.Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ is regulated by the Financial Services Authority.No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without the prior written permission of The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Limited.

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