nhan thuc hoi nhap - 28-12-2015

7/24/2019 Nhan Thuc Hoi Nhap - 28-12-2015

1/49

Cng b Kt qu Nghin cu

ti nghin cu kho st:

NHN THC HI NHP KINH T QUC

T CA DOANH NGHIP VIT NAMc thc hin bi Trng Doanh Nhn PACE

TP. HCM , ngy 28/12/2015


2/49

Nhm tc gi

Chtr : ng GinTTrung

Trinkhai:

BNguynThHin B TrnThThanh Lan

BNguynThHngo

Tvn& Phnbin: PGs. Ts. TrnHuQuang

Ts.NguynXunNgha

Ts.NguynKhnh Trung


3/49

Bi cnhnghin cu

Hi nhp kinh t su rng v ton din vikhu vc v th gii v mi mt

Nhn thc hi nhp c vai tr quan trng khi

hi nhp kinh t quc t. Cc yu t nh hng n nhn thc hi

nhp cng cn c quan tm. Nhu cu kho st v nghin cu v nhn

thc hi nhp


4/49

L do nghin cu

DNVN tn dng c hi v vt quathch thc

nh v c thc trng nhn thc

DN v cc ch th c lin quan cn nhnthc ng v (su sc) v hi nhp

Thiu bng chng khch quan v khoa hc

Thc hin ti nghin cu ny


5/49

Mc ch nghin cu

a ra c s d liu khch quan v khoahcnhm gip cc nh hoch nh chnhsch, cc c quan bo ch, cc nh nghin

cu v cng ng doanh nghip c thm gcnhn v nhn thc hi nhp ca DN VN .

Cnh bo thc trng v thc y DN tmhiu v hi nhp quc t, c bit l chun

b, hon thin mnh thnh cng trcnhng c hi v thch thc mang tnh khuvc v ton cu.


6/49

Cu hi nghin cu

Doanh nghip Vit Nam (DNVN) nhn thcnh th no v hi nhp kinh t?

u l nhng nhn t tc ng n nhn

thc ca doanh nghip Vit Nam?


7/49

Cc nghin cu trc y

Cho n nay c 3 nghin cu c lin quant nhiu n vn nhn thc hi nhp ny:

- Vin Nghin cu ng Nam caSingapore ISEAS (2013)

- Bo co v ch s CPIca VCCI (2014)

- Tp ch Pht trin v Hi nhp (UEF)

Mt s ti liu khcc lin quan

- T chcEdelman (2015, Oct.)

- ...


8/49

Cc nghin cu trc y

Ch : Hi nhp ni chung, nhn thcv

tng hip nh ring l, chin lc, nng lchi nhp cp khu vc v trong nc.

Phm vi: nhng ni dung ring l (AEC,

TPP) Phng php: NC ti liu, nh lng, so

snh

i tng: DN (49-152) v SV (204)

Hnh thc: NC, bo co thng k

Ti VN, thiu trm trng cc nghin cuv hi nhp kinh t mt cch ton din


9/49

Ni dung kho st

1. AEC

2. TPP

3. WTO

Cc nidunghinhp

1. Cc yuttc ng

2. nhgi ccyuttc ng

Cchtipcnhinhp

Nhnthc


10/49

Phng php nghin cu

Phng php NC

Nghin cu kho st / iu tra x hi hc(SurveyResearch)

nh lng (Quantitative) kt hp nh tnh(Qualitative).

Cng c nghin cu: Bng hi kho st(Questionaire) v Phng vn trc tip (Inerview)

i tng, khch th v mu NC

i tng nghin cu: Nhn thc hi nhp kinh tquc t ca DN Vit Nam.

Khch th: Doanh nghip ang hot ng ti VN

Chn mu: Mu phi xc sut (493 doanh nghip)


11/49

M t mu nghin cu

Tngmu: 493 doanh nghip(chyuchnmutiTP. HCM)

Chcdanh L cao cp 24.6 Quym DN 500 NV 30.8

Ngnhngh Cng nghip 44.7 LoihnhDN

Nh nc 8.8Dchv 38.7 Tnhn 56.6

Thngmi 9.1 C YTNN 22.1

Nng nghip 7.5 Khc 12.5

Thtrng

Trong nc 87.5 Vngmin

Tp. HCM 75.2

ASEAN 51.9 Min nam 19.4

Cc nckhc

43.5 Mintrung 2.5

Phabc 2.9


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KT QU

NGHIN CU


13/49

Phn ln DN cha bit n v khng quantm n hi nhp kinh t

Ghich: NAEC, TPP, WTO= 291Biu 1: Mi quan tm ca DN n AEC, TPP, WTO


14/49

Tng quan gia cc bin

Nhn thc hi nhp - chc danh (chc danhcng cao, nhn thc AEC, TPP cng tt)

Nhn thc hi nhp - Quy m DN (DN cngln, t l hu nh khng quan tm cng cao)


15/49

Nhm DN c thtrngsnphmASEAN quan tm nnidung hinhphnnhm DN khng c

Th trng sn phm ti cc nc ASEAN Kim nh

Chisquare

AEC

C Khng Tng

X2(2) =

19.508

p = 0.000

Cha bit n 14.1 31.5 22.5Hu nh khng quantm 35.2 34.8 35.0

Quan tm 50.8 33.7 42.6

Tng(N)

100.0

(199)

100.0

(184)

100.0

(383)

TPP

Cha bit n 12.1 21.1 16.4

X2(2) = 8.411

p = 0.015

Hu nh khng quantm 22.1 26.5 24.2

Quan tm 65.8 52.4 59.4

Tng

(N)

100.0

(199)

100.0

(185)

100.0

(384)

WTO

Cha bit n 3.5 3.8 3.7

X2(2) = 6.520

p = 0.038

Hu nh khng quantm 24.6 36.4 30.3

Quan tm 71.9 59.8 66.1

Tng(N) 100.0(199) 100.0(184) 100.0(383)


16/49

Hu ht cc DN khng bit n cc iukhon c th

Biu 2: Hiu bit ca DN v cc iu khon c th ca AEC, TPP vWTO

Ghi ch: NAEC

= 389; NTPP

= 390; NWTO

= 390


17/49

AEC, TPP: chc danh cng cao th hiu bitcng tng, c khc bit WTO

Biu 3: S hiu bit v cc iu khon c th ca AEC, TPP, WTO phn theochc danh (n v: %)

Ghi ch: NAEC= 201; NTPP= 202; NWTO = 202


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DN c th trng Asean quan tm n nidung hi nhp hn DN khng c

Biu 4: Th trng ASEAN v hiu bit ca DN v cc iu khon c thcaAEC, TPP, WTO (n v: %)

Ghi ch: NAEC = 382; NTPP= 383; NWTO= 383


19/49

DN VN cn m h v tc ng ca hi nhp


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Nhn nh tc ng theo chc danh

TG, chtch

G, PG

Trngphng

Tng

Hunhkhngtc ng 28.0 30.4 25.0 29.2

Khngbit34.0 51.3 35.0 44.9

Tc ngnhiu38.0 18.3 40.0 25.9

Tng(N) 100.0

(50)100.0(115)

100.0(20)

100.0(185)

X2(4) = 9.958; p = 0.041; C = 0.226


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DN c th trng ASEAN nhn nh tcng nhiu hn DN khng c

Biu 6: Nhn nh v tc ng ca AEC, TPP, WTO n hot ng kinh doanhca DN, phn theo th trng ASEAN

Ghi ch: NAEC

= 382; NTPP

= 384; NWTO

= 384


22/49

Nhn thc ca DN vli ch khi hi nhp

Nhnthcvlich cahinhp

N

%

Mrngthtrng, xutkhu 89 37.1

Chi, chihptc, kinh doanh 59 24.6

Thay ipht trin, ha nhpkhu vcv quct 57 23.8

Hchi, trau dikinthcmi33

13.8

Thch thc, cnhtranh 33 13.8

utvn, cng ngh 16 6.7

uivthu, thay ilutl 13 5.4

Chtlngngunnhn lc 12 5.0

Nng cao chtlngsnphm

7

2.9

kinkhc 20 8.3

Tng 339 141.2


23/49

Nhn thc ca DN vthit hi khi hi nhp

Nhnthcvbtlicahinhp

N

%

Mtthphn, thtrngkhch hng

78 35.8

Cnhtranh khclit 64 29.4

Mtsboh 25 11.5

Mtngunlao ngc chtlng

22 10.1

Bph sn, st nhp, DN nhgpkh khn22 10.1

Riro cao 20 9.2

Btnan ninh, chnh tr

4

1.8

kinkhc 23 10.6

Tng 258 118.3


24/49

DN nhn nh v tc ng ca hi nhp

Biu 7: DN nhn nh v tc ng ca DN theo th t u tin


25/49

Ch mt s t DN chun b cho hi nhp

Biu 8: S chun b ca DN cho vic hi nhp (n v: %)


26/49

Quan tm nAEC

Rtquantm

Quan tm t quan tm Tng

Chun b hi

nhp AEC

C 71.4 50.5 10.5 47.6

Khng 28.6 49.5 89.5 52.4

Tng(N)

100.0

(77)100.0

(97)100.0

(57)100.0

(231)X2(2) = 49.267; p = 0.000 ; C = 0.462

Quan tm nTPPRtquan tm Quan tm t quan tm Tng

Chun b hinhp TPP

C

68.8

45.0

13.8

46.5

Khng 31.2 55.0 86.2 53.5Tng(N)

100.0(93)

100.0(131)

100.0(58)

100.0(282)

X2(2) = 43.677; p = 0.000 ; C = 0.394

Quan tm nWTO

Rtquan tm

Quan tm

t quan tm

Tng

Chun b hinhp WTO

C 73.2 52.4 17.7 49.2Khng 26.8 47.6 82.3 50.8Tng(N)

100.0(82)

100.0(164)

100.0(79)

100.0(325)

X2(2) = 50.859; p = 0.000 ; C = 0.396


27/49

DN t thay i trong kinh doanh khi hinhp

Biu 9: Mc thay i chin lc ca DN hi nhp (n v:%)


28/49

Nhm DN nh nc c t l t thay i hnnhm DN T nhn v c YTNN

Biu 10: Mc thay i chin lc, phn theo loi hnh DN (nv: %)


29/49

Phn ln DN cha c t th sn sngcho hi nhp

Biu 11: Mc thay i chin lc, phn theo loi hnhDN (n v: %)


30/49

Nhm DN nh nc c xu hng cha snsng hn nhm DN t nhn v c YTNN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4

Series 1Series 2

Series 3

Biu 12: T th hi nhp AEC, TPP, WTO theo loi hnhDN (n v: %)


31/49

Khi nim hi nhp ca DN VN

Cc nhnnhNhm nhn t

Php l Lich Nilc

Lphithitlpcc iukhonchung

.829

.131

.043

L cc bnphitn trngv tun thcc iukhonchung

.752 .065 .231

Thc yhon thinhthngphp lutqucgia .615 .181 .048

Gip khngnh, nng cao v mrngthnghiu

.092 .836 .182

Gip khngnhvthqucgia .248 .840 .042

ihiphic nnglccnhtranh .189 .037 .807

hinhp, cnnhnthcr ci mnh hinhp .047 .175 .805

% phng sai 35.94 15.37 14.68

KMO = 0.686; Bartletts c X2(21) = 569.433; p = 0.000

Phng sai tng th: 65,99% (gii thch c 65,99 % bin thin ca d liu).Nhn t 1: Yu cu hon thin php l trong hi nhp.(= 0.6)Nhn t 2:Li ch ca hi nhp. (= 0.7)Nhn t 3:Ni lc ca DN trong hi nhp. (= 0.5).


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Nhn thc ca DN v mt s ni dung cth

AEC(%)

TPP (%) WTO(%)

Nmhnhthnh

Sai 75.7 56.6 57.3ng 24.3 43.4 42.7

NmVN

gia nhp

Sai 45.3 86.1 63.5

ng 54.7 13.9 36.5

V cc mc thi gian quan trng

Trn 50% DN khng nhn bit cc mc tiu


33/49

Trn 50% DN khng nhn bit cc mc tiuAEC

kincaDN vmctiu caAEC

Phnln

khngnhnbit

Phn

lnnhnbit

Tng%

(N= 490)

AEC hngnmtthtrngchung thng

nht53.9 46.1 100.0

AEC hngnmtcssnxutchung thng

nht 81.5 18.6 100.0

Hnh thnh khu vcmudchtdo AFTA 54.9 45.1 100.0

Mtkhu vckinh tpht trinngu 66.6 33.3 100.0

C sluchuyntdo cahng ha dchv 50.0 50.0 100.0

Mtkhu vckinh tc sccnhtranh cao 47.0 53.1 100.0

Hngntdo utvn, cng nghv laongc tay ngh 51.6 48.4 100.0

Mtkhu vchinhpyvo kinh tton

cu43.1 56.9 100.0


34/49

Mi quan h gia cc bin

- Nhm DN khng quan tm cc hip nh- tr li saicc mc thi gian quan trng

- Nhm DN khng xc nh c tm quan trng cahi nhp- tr li sai

- Nhm DN khng c s chun b hi nhp- tr lisai

- Rt t s khc bit gia cc nhm DN theo cc cim: quy m DN, loi hnh DN, chc danh

- Ch tm thy mi quan h gia cc bin d liuthuc ni dung hi nhp.

Tnh ng tin cy ca d liu

S ng nht trong nhn thc ca DN theo hngtiu cc

T l DN h i l h


35/49

T l DN chn sai v cc lnh vc c utin khi hi nhp AEC

Nhnglnhvccutin hinhp Lachn Tng

N

%

Hng nng sn 219 17.7 46.9Dtmay 187 15.1 40.0Kinh doanhbtngsn 42 3.4 9.0Cc snphmtg

79

6.4

16.9

ThngmiintASEAN 118

9.5

25.3

Xy dng 45 3.6 9.6Thng tin truynthng 66

5.3

14.1

Hnh chnh, dch v h tr 71 5.7 15.2Ti chnh, ngn hng, bo him 101 8.2 21.6

Logistics

110

8.9

23.6

Khngbit 200 16.2 42.8Tng 1238 100.0 265.1


36/49

DN quan tm ni dung no AEC?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Series 1

Series 2

Series 3

Biu13: DN quan tm nnidung caAEC

Phn ln DN khng nhn bit cc mc tiu


37/49

Phn ln DN khng nhn bit cc mc tiuca TPP

DN nhndincc mctiu caTPP

kin ca DNTng %

(N)Phnlnkhng nhnbit

Phnlnnhnbit

Tngcngcc quy nhlin quan nutncngoi

62.3 37.8 100.0

Tngcngcnhtranh, cbittrong lnh

vcmua smcng

66.9 33.1 100.0

Sitchtcc yu cuvvsinh dchtvro cnkthut

66.8 33.2 100.0

Ctgimhon ton thuxutnhpkhugiacc ncthnh vin

56.6 43.0 100.0

Cc quy nh m bo quyn li ngi lao

ng

52.8

47.1

100.0

Cc vn phi thng mi khc 51.1 48.9 100.0

Tng mc m ca cc lnh vc dch v,

c bit l ti chnh50.2 49.8 100.0

Tng mc bo h cc quyn s hu tr

tu cao hn so vi mc trong WTO

52.6 47.3 100.0


38/49

DN quan tm mc tiu no ca TPP?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Series 1

Series 2

Series 3

Biu 14: DN quan tm n ni dung ca TPP


39/49

DN nhn bit mc tiu ca WTO

DN nhndinvnhimvcaWTO

Phnln

khng nhnbit

Phn

lnnhnbit

Tng%(N)

Thathunvnhngquy tcv thtciuchnhvicgiiquyttranh chpgiacc thnhvin

56.0 43.9 100.0

R sot nhkcc chnh sch thngmicacc thnh vin

56.3 43.2 100.0

Thc yvicthchinhipnhv cam kttctrong khun khWTO

41.7 58.2 100.0

Todinncc thnh vin tiptcm

phn k ktnhnghipnh, cam ktmivtdo ha

42.2

57.6

100.0

Truyn thng i chng c DN nh gi l yu


40/49

Truynthng ichng cDN nhgi l yutquan trngnhhngncch nhnthchinhp

Nhngknh thng tin

nhhng

Lachn

(N) % theo la chn Tng %

Internet 356 74.8 13.5

Bo 297 62.4 11.2

Ti vi 257 54.0 9.7

itc kinh doanh 251 52.7 9.5

i 241 50.6 9.1nh hng t nh nc 228 47.9 8.6

Hiphinghnghip 225 47.3 8.5

Nhu cu ca cng ty 207 43.5 7.8

Sch 195 41.0 7.4Ngi thn 152 31.9 5.7

Trng hc 145 30.5 5.5

Khng c yutno 90 18.9 3.4

Tng 2644 555.5 100.0


41/49

Nhn nh ca DN v cc yu t nh hng

Truynthng (Internet, tivi, bo i) c vai tr quan trngnnhnthchinhpcadoanh nghipnhhngcaNh ncchatc ngnnhnthchinhpcadoanh nghipGio dc(nh trng, csoto) chanhhngngv vhinhp

X hichacnhtnhdoanh nghipvhinhpquct

Bnthn doanh nghipchaquan tm nhinhpkinh tquct

Tmnhn hnchcacc doanh nhn vhinhpkinh t

Thiucc hiphikinh doanh tlpthc ynhnthchinhp


42/49

Kt lun Nhn chung, mcnhnthccaDN vhinhpkinh t

cn thp(43.2%, 59.1% v 66.6%. DN c quan tm ), AEC

t cnhnbitnht tcc DN. Phn lncc DN khngbitcc iukhoncthcacc hipnh(85,5% - 77,8%- 66,3%)

PhnlnDN (bao gmDN nh nc,tnhn, DN c yutncngoi) khng nhgi cv kh thngtrctc ngcahi nhp (tc ng: 26,1%- 32,2% - 38,4%).DN c xu hng cho rng cc hip nh tc ng khngnhiunhotngkinh doanh caDN. (lngl44,7% -38,3% - 28,7%) (khng tc ng:29,2%29,5%32,9%)

DN nhn nhntc ngmang tnh tch cc: c hi(70,5%). Nhm DN tnhn chim56,1% >< 7,6% DN nhnc. Mrngthtrngsnphm(37,1%), chihptcnhiuhn (24,6%) v s thay i/hanhp trong khu vcv quct(23,8%).

Kt l


43/49

Kt lun

DN nhn nhntc ngmang tnh tiu cc: Mtthtrng (35,8%), cnh tranh khc lit (29,4%). DNcnglo ngivsmtboh,mtngunlao ngccht lng, nguy c ph sn, st nhp, cbit iviDN nh.

DNVN chasnsng hinhp: sn sng hinhp

(19,7%- 21,7% - 31,1%) C 51,7% - 46,7%- 43% DNkhng chunbro rithinhpAEC.Nhngktqu ny cho thy mt t th c th xem l b ngtrong hinhpcaDNVN.

DNVN nhn thc kh r rng v li chsu xa cahinhp,yutphp l, nilccaDN cngl cimtrong nhnthchinhpcaDNVN.

Kt l


44/49

Kt lun

asDN VN t chunb(51,746,743%) v cha

snsng cho hi(snsng 19,7 - 21,7- 31,1%) DN c quy m lnc xu hng thay iv snsng

nhiuhnhinhp.

DN ngoi nh ncnngngv snsng hncc DN

nh nctrong victhay ichinlckinh doanh. Mcsnsng hinhpphthucvo mcthay

ichinlckinh doanh caDN.

Cc nc ASEAN l th trng trong tng lai ca

phnlncc DN tuy nhin, tlDN quan tm v hiubitvAEC lithpnht. C lyl mu thunnititrong kinh doanh caDN VN.


45/49

Kt lun theo cc xu hng

Xu hng v logic nhn thc: d liu thuthpcngtin cy(xu hngnhnthccc nidung khi qut v cc nidung cthc mitngquan thunvinhau)

Xu hngvsngnht: rtt c skhcbit c ngha thng k trn ton dn sgiaccbinnidung nhnthcv ccbin

clpthuccimv thng tin DN.

Mt i h i hi t


46/49

Mt vi so snh vi cc nghin cu trc

ISEAS (2013)

76% khng bit vAEC

94% khng bit v

iu l AECVCCI (2015)

31,5% khng bitTPP

Nghin cu ny

56,8% khng bit, khngquan tm AEC

85,5% khng bit cciu l AEC

80,3% cha sn sngAEC

40,9% cha bit, khngquan tm n TPP

77,8% khng bit ni

dung m phn TPP 78,3% DN cha sn sng

TPP


47/49

Mt vi so snh vi cc nc khc

VN Campuchia Lo Myanmar ThiLan

Khng BitnAEC

76% 26% 28% 36% 30%AEC Khng tc ng

63% 38% 35% 33% 16%


48/49

NhnghnchcaNghin cu

Chn mu (phi xc sut) Ch yu l d liu nh lng (bng hi

kho st), cn d liu nh tnh cn t

(phng vn tng ngi)


49/49

CM NQU V!

nhan thuc hoi nhap - 28-12-2015

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