november evidence core

Argument Title

Planet Debate Politics 9.5.12p. 83 of 97Elections - Suburban Voters

Elections DA Obama Bad: Suburban Voters

Shell Suburban Voters5

Uniqueness - Negative Uniqueness: The Race is Very Close8Uniqueness: Romney Winning9Uniqueness: Romney Winning Undecided Voters10Uniqueness: Romney Winning GOP Convention11Uniqueness: Romney Winning Enthusiasm Gap12Uniqueness: Romney Winning Enthusiasm Gap13Uniqueness: Romney Winning Ohio14Uniqueness - Affirmative Uniqueness: Obama Winning15Uniqueness: Obama Winning16Uniqueness: Obama Winning AT: Enthusiasm Gap17Uniqueness: Obama Winning AT: Hispanic Bump18Uniqueness: Obama Winning AT: GOP Convention19Uniqueness: Obama Winning AT: GOP Convention20Uniqueness: Obama Winning AT: GOP Convention21

Links - NegativeLink: Plan Popular - General22Link: Plan Popular - General23Link: Plan Popular - General24Plan Popular Seen as a Jobs Program25Plan Popular Seen as a Jobs Program Ohio Example26Plan Popular Seen as a Jobs Program27Plan Popular Seen as a Jobs Program28Plan Popular Seen as a Jobs Program29Plan Popular Republican Opposition Proves30Plan Popular AT: GOP Helped by the Plan31Plan Popular Plan Seen as Bold Economic Action32Plan Popular Suburbs Internal Link33Plan Popular Suburbs Internal Link34Plan Popular Suburbs Internal Link35Plan Popular Suburbs Internal Link AT: Spending Unpopular36Links - Affirmative Plan Unpopular General37Plan Unpopular General38Plan Unpopular General39Plan Unpopular General40Plan Unpopular Even if Like TI, They Dont Like Federal41Plan Unpopular Spending/Big Government42Plan Unpopular Only Like TI if it Helps Them Directly43Plan Unpopular AT: Suburbs Internal Link44Plan Unpopular AT: Suburbs Internal Link45

Internal Links - NegativeSuburban Voters Are Truly Swing Voters46Suburban Voters - AT: Voters Have Already Decided47Suburban Voters - Uniqueness48Suburban Voters Romney Barely Ahead49Suburban Voters Decide Key Swing States50Suburban Voters AT: Its A Base Election51Suburban Voters AT: Its A Base Election52Internal Links - AffirmativeUndecided Voters Dont Matter - Its A Base Election53Undecided Voters Dont Matter - Its A Base Election54Undecided Voters Dont Matter - Its A Base Election55Undecided Voters Dont Matter - Its A Base Election56Internal Links - GeneralInternal Link: Presidential Action Helps57Internal Link President Gets Credit and Blame58Economic Policy in Next Few Months Matters59Impact - Negative Impact: Obama Re-Election Bad U.S. Hegemony60Impact: Obama Re-Election Bad U.S. Hegemony61Impact: Obama Re-Election Bad U.S. Hegemony62Impact: Obama Re-Election Bad U.S. Hegemony63Impact: Obama Re-Election Bad U.S. Hegemony64Impact: Obama Re-Election Bad AT: Obama Policy Successes65Impact: Obama Re-Election Bad Romney Policy Good66Impact: Obama Re-Election Bad Romney Policy Good67Impact - Affirmative Impact: Obama Re-Election Good Romney Policy Extremist68Impact: Obama Re-Election Good Romney Policy Extremist69Impact: Obama Re-Election Good Impact Takeout70

Iran Strikes ScenarioIran Strike Answers Obama Wont Attack71Iran Strike Answers Obama Wont Attack72Iran Strike Answers Romney Wont Attack73Iran Strike Answers Romney Will Attack74Iran Strike Answers Israel Attack Depends on U.S. Support75Iran Strike Answers Israel Attack Depends on U.S. Support76Iran Strike Answers Iran Threat Growing77Iran Strike Answers Romney Winning = No Israel Attack78Iran Strike Answers Romney Win = Israel Attack79Iran Strike Scenario Obama Will Strike80Iran Strike Scenario Obama Will Strike81Iran Strike Scenario Strike Impact82Iran Strike Scenario Strike Impact83Iran Strike Scenario Strike Impact84Iran Strike Scenario Strike Impact85Iran Strike Scenario Strike Impact86Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Strike Inevitable87Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Strike Inevitable88Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Strike Inevitable89Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Israel Strike Inevitable90Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Iran wont escalate91Iran Strike Scenario - AT: US would keep strike limited92Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Strike Good93Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Strike Good94Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Strike Good95Iran Strike Scenario - AT: US could re-attack if Iran re-builds96Iran Strike Scenario - AT: Containment Fails97

Shell Obama Bad: Suburban Voters

A. uniqueness.

The Consensus of opinion is the race is neck-and-neck

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]The balance sheet on Barack Obama stands at zero right now. The country is evenly divided about his performance as president. And hes tied in the polls with Republican Mitt Romney. Its a neck-and-neck race, said Rick Snyder, Michigan Republican governor, in an opinion widely shared across the political spectrum.

B. Link. The plan helps President Obama.

1. suburban voters are a key swing group, obama and romney are running even with them and while they are against government spending in general, they support infrastructure projects

Greg Sargent, Washington Post, 8.2.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/americans-hate-government-but-they-love-medicare-social-security-and-environmental-regulations/2012/08/02/gJQApvRQSX_blog.html]Anew poll out from Hofstra University, which dug deep into the opinions of suburban voters a key national swing constituency is pretty interesting along these lines. It finds Obama and Mitt Romney exactly split among these voters. But on the questions of government spending and regulation, their verdict is clear: They are inclined against them in the abstract, but areadamantly opposed to cutting themwhen the talk turns to specifics. * More than seven in 10 suburban residents say they favor cutting federal spending in general. But when you get specific, 87 percent oppose cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits. And 65 percent supportincreasinggovernment spending on infrastructure and public works projects.

Shell Obama Bad: Suburban Voters B. Links (continued)

2. transportation programs are seen as boosting local economies and creating jobs

Miller Center, University of Virginia 2012[Are We There Yet? Selling America on Transportation, Miller Center University of Virginia, 2012, p.16]Meanwhile, recent public-opinion surveys have found overwhelming support for the idea of infrastructure investment. In a 2011 survey conducted by the Rockefeller Foundation, for example, two-thirds of voters said that improving the nations infrastructure is important, and 80 percent agreed that federal funding to improve and modernize transportation will boost local economies and create millions of jobs from construction to manufacturing to engineering. Similarly, a poll conducted by CBS News and The New York Times between October 19 and October 24, 2011 showed that eight in ten Americans approve of government spending for roads and bridges as a way to boost employment.

3. Jobs and the economy are far and away the top issue for suburban voters

Robert Brodsky, Newsday, 8.1.12[http://www.newsday.com/elections/mitt-romney-or-barack-obama-suburban-voters-will-pick-next-president-poll-finds-1.3874645]Obama's support tracks closely with suburbanites' views of the economy. Among 1,005 suburban residents interviewed, including 844 who are registered to vote and 161 who are not, 33 percent said they were worse off financially than they were four years ago. Only 28 percent said they were doing better, and 37 percent saw no change in their fiscal condition. Those numbers are slightly more optimistic than in past Hofstra polls. Suburban residents will vote their pocketbooks in November, said Michael Dawidziak, a Bohemia campaign consultant who works primarily withRepublicans. "The economy and jobs blow everything else away," he said. "Nothing even comes close." Said Levy: "This is not your mother and father's suburb. The pain of therecessionhas reached into areas that were once the most prosperous."

Shell Obama Bad: Suburban Voters C. Impact. U.S. hegemony

If Obama wins in 2012, it will end US hegemony

Nile Gardiner, foreign affairs analyst for the London Telegraph, July 14, 2011[http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100097071/barack-obama%E2%80%99s-future-looks-precarious-as-america-faces-its-most-important-presidential-election-since-1980/]And like the contest in 1980, 2012 will likely decide the future of the United States as the worlds dominant superpower, with Americans faced with a stark choice between renewal and decline. As the latest Pew survey of global attitudes shows, the world is beginning to lose faith in the strength of Americas leadership, with general publics in 15 of 22 nations surveyed believing that China either will replace or already has replaced the United States as the worlds leading superpower. Even in the US itself, 46 percent believe that China has already or will replace America as the worlds leading power. America in the second decade of the 21st Century is a superpower on a precipice, facing towering mountains of public debt, declining domestic and international confidence, and growing threats to its international security from the likes of Iran and North Korea. There is nothing inevitable about American decline, but the policies of the current administration are making such a decline far more likely. As the United States grows weaker both economically and militarily, Americas adversaries and strategic competitors are growing stronger and more aggressive. A world without powerful American leadership built upon strong economic foundations would have been unthinkable just a decade ago. But the damaging policies of the current presidency are beginning to make that nightmare scenario a reality.

u.s. declinist policies risk world war

Zalmay Khalilzad, former US Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, Feb 8, 2011[http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad?pg=2]If U.S. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow, it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers, increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another, and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. The stakes are high. In modern history, the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership. By contrast, multi-polar systems have been unstable, with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. American retrenchment could have devastating consequences. Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, there would be a heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict.Uniqueness: The Race is Very Close

Obama and Romney tied with likely voters

Reuters 9.2.12[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/02/obama-vs-romney_n_1851011.html]U.S. President Barack Obama enters an important campaign week tied with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found on Sunday, leaving the incumbent an opportunity to edge ahead of his opponent at the Democratic National Convention. With the Democrats set to nominate Obama for a second term this week in Charlotte, North Carolina, the race to the presidential election on Nov. 6 is tight with 45 percent for Obama and 45 percent for Romney among likely voters, the survey found. The findings were from the seventh day of a rolling online poll conducted for Reuters by Ipsos to judge voters' attitudes around the political conventions.

Polls show the race is basically deadlocked

Mark Blumenthal, Huffington Post, 9.3.12[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/03/republican-convention-mitt-romney_n_1852052.html?utm_hp_ref=politics]Reuters and Ipsos have been conducting a daily tracking surveyduring the conventions that uses a new unproven Internet-based methodology. Their first wave of interviews conducted just before the Republican convention gave Obama a slight lead (46 percent to 42 percent), but their most recent interviews, conducted August 29 to September 2, shows a 45-to-45 percent tie. Taken together, the results from the three tracking surveys indicate a collectively closer race than the composite of all prior polls, as reflected in theHuffPost Pollster chart. However, the chart's current result is dominated by these three daily tracking polls, and two of those have consistently produced results that have been more favorable to Romney than other polls.

Consensus is the race is neck-and-neck

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]The balance sheet on Barack Obama stands at zero right now. The country is evenly divided about his performance as president. And hes tied in the polls with Republican Mitt Romney. Its a neck-and-neck race, said Rick Snyder, Michigan Republican governor, in an opinion widely shared across the political spectrum.

Uniqueness: Romney Winning

Rasmussen poll shows Romney moving ahead

Mark Blumenthal, Huffington Post, 9.3.12[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/03/republican-convention-mitt-romney_n_1852052.html?utm_hp_ref=politics]TheRasmussen Report's daily automated phone trackingpurports to show Romney gaining ground, moving from a 2 percentage point deficit to a 4 point advantage over Obama (48 percent to 44 percent) among likely voters over the past week. However, Obama held a pre-convention advantage, which was an outlier from his previous showings in the Rasmussen tracking survey. Their most recent result is only a net 3 percentage points better for Romney than the average of Rasmussen surveys conducted in July and August, which showed Romney with 46 percent and Obama with 45 percent.

Romney is in a stronger strategic position

DJ Drummond, Wizbang, 9.3.12[http://wizbangblog.com/2012/09/03/according-to-gallup-romney-should-win/]Obama has enjoyed support above 48% only once, and has spent most of the General Election locked in at 47%. Frankly, the only way Obama can significantly increase his numbers would be for Romney to commit some blunder that seriously damaged his numbers and led to voters making late choice changes. This is what happened in 2008, when Sarah Palins misstatements created doubts about McCains judgment, resulting in nearly a ten-point loss of support in a couple weeks, with Obama the happy beneficiary. The problem for Obama this year, is two-fold: First, Obamas camp has to deal with mis-statements by both the President and his vice-president. Second, Romneys choice of Ryan created an issues-focused team that may not be the most exciting in memory, but which is going to be focused and clear. In short, the voters know all about Obama and Biden, but some are still learning about Romney and Ryan, creating opportunity to the Republicans to gain support beyond what they have now. At this time, the numbers suggest Romney is in a much stronger strategic position.

Computer models using past elections predict Romney will win

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]The economy is still weak. Franklin D. Roosevelt is the only president of the past century to win re-election with a jobless rate as high as 8 percent. The computer models that predict presidential election results based on economic statistics project Obama losing with 45 percent of the vote. Of course, computers can be wrong and history is always writing a new chapter, but theres no doubt that the economy presents serious challenges to Obamas re-election effort.

Uniqueness: Romney Winning Undecided Voters

Undecided voters usually break for the challenger

Peter Roff, contributing editor, US News & World Report, 8.13.12[http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2012/08/13/enthusiasm-gap-means-mitt-romney-could-blow-out-president-obama]Indeed, and if it does turn out to be something more than a turnout election, it is important to remember that in most previous elections the later "undecideds" made up their minds the more likely they were to break toward the challenger. Having already seen what the incumbent could do, they made up their minds to give someone else a chance. There is nothing on the horizon over the next 85 days, especially where the economy is concerned, that is likely to change the possibility that the "undecideds" will again go with the challenger.

Undecided voters have historically broken for the republican

DJ Drummond, Wizbang, 9.3.12[http://wizbangblog.com/2012/09/03/according-to-gallup-romney-should-win/]Gallups poll reflects a seven percent undecided portion, a number not only well beyond both the statistical margin of error and the margin between the two candidates, but consistent with most presidential elections at this point in the election. Of the nine elections with a sitting President as candidate, six had undecided numbers between six and seven percent. It is an important consideration, then, to see what happened with those voters. Over the six elections with comparable undecided portions, the Republican took fifteen times as many voters as the Democrat (an average gain of 3.0% against a Democrat gain of 0.2%). When all nine are considered, the advantage grows to a Republican average gain 4.5%, versus a Democrat gain of 0.3%. Again, this favors Romney in this election.

Uniqueness: Romney Winning GOP Convention

The republican convention made Romney more likeable

Reuters 9.2.12[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/02/obama-vs-romney_n_1851011.html]Republicans used their convention to play up the former private equity executive's family and personal life. In Wolfeboro, New Hampshire, Mormon churchgoers at a service attended by Romney on Sunday thanked the former Massachusetts governor for raising the church's profile in his race for the White House and praised his nomination acceptance speech. Romney, who would be the first Mormon president if he wins the election, sat smiling with his wife, Ann, as members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints lauded his performance at the convention. "To be honest the convention was pretty good for Romney," said Clark. "I think one of the big tests of the Republican convention was to make him more of a human, make him a little more personable, make him more likable. I think they succeeded there."

Convention gives Romney a bump with Hispanic voters

Matt Barreto, Latino Decisions 9.3.12[http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/09/03/tracking-poll-wave-2-romney-gains-post-convention/]After a week in the spotlight in many prominent Latinos took to the stage at the RNC Convention, the impreMedia/Latino Decisions tracking poll finds a noticeable bump in support for Romney and Republicans among Latinos,as reported by Pilar Marrero. The question will be can they sustain it, or will the new found support erode after the Democrats get their turn in Charlotte. In thesecond week of the impreMedia/Latino Decisions tracking pollRomney stands at 30%, up from 26% inweek 1, and also improved his favorability from 27/55 (net -28) to 31/54 (net-23). While the clear majority of Latino voters continue to support Obama, this is the first time Romney has managed to climb to 30% of the Latino vote in the 10 months that impreMedia/Latino Decisions has polled on an Obama-Romney match-up.

Uniqueness: Romney Winning Enthusiasm Gap

Republicans have an edge in enthusiasm and this will lead to a turnout advantage

DJ Drummond, Wizbang, 9.3.12[http://wizbangblog.com/2012/09/03/according-to-gallup-romney-should-win/]First, all elections depend in large part on the enthusiasm of the party base. Its no wild guess to expect that Republicans will vote for Romney, or that Democrats will vote for Obama. The questions, then, come down to how independents will vote, and how many Republicans and Democrats show up at the polls. In 2008, strong Democrat enthusiasm for Obama coupled with lukewarm Republican support for McCain, created a clear Democrat advantage at the polls, which produced a clear majority in the election. In 2004, both parties showed strong energy which kept the election close; Gallups final poll in 2004 showed a 49-49 tie. With this in mind, consider the following article from Gallup: The article shows a lead for Republican energy over the Democrats, especially when asking who is following the election very closely.

Republican voters are more enthusiastic and will turn out more

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]The presidents opponents are committed to voting than his supporters are. With two months to go before Election Day, Republicans are clearly more charged up: 51 percent of GOP voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual to cast votes this November, compared to 39 percent of Democrats. Four years ago, 62 percent of Democrats were more motivated than usual. Two key pro-Obama voting blocs are suffering enthusiasm gaps: young voters and Latinos.

Romney is ahead on enthusiasm obama must solve this to win

Peter Roff, contributing editor, US News & World Report, 8.13.12[http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2012/08/13/enthusiasm-gap-means-mitt-romney-could-blow-out-president-obama]At the end of the day it may all come down to the level of enthusiasm each candidate can generate among the electorate. On that score, say a number of measures, Romney is likely ahead. "Republican-leaning voting blocs are more enthusiastic to vote this November," the folks at Resurgent Republic said Thursday, "which could be the deciding factor in a turnout election. As we head into the final campaign stretch, President Obama faces the unwelcoming reality that he must close the voter enthusiasm gap and improve his performance among key voting subgroups if he is to be successful in his bid for reelection."

Uniqueness: Romney Winning Enthusiasm Gap

counting enthusiasm, Romney is headed for a blow out win

Peter Roff, contributing editor, US News & World Report, 8.13.12[http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2012/08/13/enthusiasm-gap-means-mitt-romney-could-blow-out-president-obama]There is no guarantee, however, that the 2012 contest will be "a turnout election." To astute observers of American politics, it is starting to look more like 1980when Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by impressive margins in both the popular vote and the electoral collegethan 2004. One key indicator of this is the way in which the number of so-called swing states continues to grow, meaning that Obama will have to fight to keep states he won easily in 2008, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and reflects that others he captured in that election, like Indiana and North Carolina, are already probably already firmly in the Romney column. When the enthusiasm gap is factored in, Romney could actually be headed for a blow out, no matter how improbable that may seem at this time.

The republican base is more motivated than the democratic base

Peter Roff, contributing editor, US News & World Report, 8.13.12[http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2012/08/13/enthusiasm-gap-means-mitt-romney-could-blow-out-president-obama]"When looking at those voters who say they are extremely enthusiastic to vote in the presidential election," Resurgent Republic reported, "Republicans hold a double-digit advantage over Democrats, 62 to 49 percent, and the subgroups most likely to support Governor Romney register higher enthusiasm than those backing President Obama. The reliable Republican voting blocsProtestants, Evangelicals, and white menscore "above the median rate of those who are extremely enthusiastic to turnout," the group announced based on an analysis of the data it had collected. Democrats, on the other hand, have lots of problems in their base, with only African-American voters showing anything near the same level of excitement about Obama that they showed four years ago. Add to that the groups that are up for grabs, like Catholicswho are still reeling over the Obama administration's assault on religious libertyand the results could be devastating for the president's party.

Uniqueness: Romney Winning Ohio

Ohio is a key swing state and Romney has the momentum

John Spinelli, Ohio News Bureau, 8.19.12[http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-back-ohio-tuesday-following-last-week-s-innovation-infrastructure-news]The president returns to a state (Ohio) he won by over four percentage points four years ago, that if he won it again this year, would guarantee a second win over a Romney-Ryan ticket if election models forecasting which states will go to the respective tickets holds true. Although aPurple Strategiespoll from last week had Romney in a reversal of fortune ahead of the president by two percentage points, when results from aRasmussen and Public Policy Polling poll are factored in, Romney has closed the one-time gap of 6-9 points down to a mere one point, well within the margin of error.

Uniqueness: Obama Winning

Obama will move ahead after the democratic convention

Reuters 9.2.12[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/02/obama-vs-romney_n_1851011.html]A week ago, a Reuters/Ipsos poll said Obama led Romney 46 percent to 42 percent. The Republican's own convention gave him a small boost, vaulting him into an even position with Obama but no further. Now Obama, who is to accept the nomination on Thursday, could get his own convention bounce. Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said Obama's numbers would likely improve during his convention. "The fact that Obama and Romney are still tied signals to me that we're not going to see any sort of sustained bump for Romney," Clark said. "As we go into next week's convention, Romney will struggle to maintain even footing with the president - we'll likely see a shift back towards Obama."

Gallup tracking poll showing no gains for Romney

Mark Blumenthal, Huffington Post, 9.3.12[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/03/republican-convention-mitt-romney_n_1852052.html?utm_hp_ref=politics]Gallup's Daily tracking surveyhas shown no movement at all over the last three days. Their latest release as of this writing, which still includes two days of interviews conducted just before the Republican convention began, shows Obama edging Romney by a single percentage point (47 percent to 46 percent). That result has not changed over the last five days of Gallup's tracking and is virtually unchanged from the prior seven days of interviewing conducted a week ago (which showed the candidates tied with 46 percent each).

Uniqueness: Obama Winning

Obama has a large favorability edge over Romney

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]Although the presidents personal approval rating has slipped from 79 percent to 50 percent since he took office, but more Americans have a favorable view of him than an unfavorable one (44 percent), according to the Washington Post/ABC News poll. Romneys likability level is dangerously deficient, particularly among swing voters. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that only 16 percent of undecided voters have a favorable view of the Republican nominee.

The electoral college gives an edge to Obama

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]The Electoral College gives the Democrats a built-in edge in the presidential contest. Texas is the only large state ruled by Republicans. President Obama has an Electoral College cushion because he can count on Democratic dominance in most of the nations Electoral Vote-rich states (California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania). Romney cant afford to lose more than one of the three competitive big states: Florida, Ohio and Michigan. If Obama can win North Carolina, it becomes almost impossible for Romney to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

Obama has an edge in campaign strategy

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]Mitt Romney is a flawed candidate running a flawed campaign. With all of President Obamas weaknesses, Mitt Romney has not been able to open a lead. One example of his strategic missteps: His international trip to Israel, Poland and England was an off-message debacle, with self-inflicted wounds at almost every stop. Romneys unforced errors have helped Obama to remain in contention. In almost every dimension, the Obama campaign is crisper, sharper, more thought-through, said Charlie Cook, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The Romney campaign is more tactical.

Uniqueness: Obama Winning AT: Enthusiasm Gap

There is no enthusiasm gap

Chris Cillizza, Washington Post, 8.27.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/08/27/the-10-numbers-that-matter-in-the-new-washington-post-abc-news-poll/]What enthusiasm gap?: For all the talk that Republicans are more fired up and ready to go than Democrats, theres no evidence of any enthusiasm difference between the two candidates supporters. Eighty-five percent of registered voters supporting Obama say they are doing so enthusiastically, while 83 percent of Romney supporters say the same of their guy. Even deeper into the numbers the story is the same: 45 percent of Obama backers are very enthusiastically supporting him while 42 percent of Romney backers are very enthusiastically behind him.

Undecided voters will swing to Obama

Chris Cillizza, Washington Post, 8.27.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/08/27/the-10-numbers-that-matter-in-the-new-washington-post-abc-news-poll/]Obama the default winner: While the horse race is a dead heat 47 percent Romney, 46 percent Obama when people are asked who theythinkwill win, the incumbent has a massive edge. Fifty-nine percent said Obama will win as compared to just 34 percent who named Romney. You can argue this two ways. On the one hand, the incumbent president is likely to be seen as the de facto winner until the challenger passes a sort of invisible threshold in voters minds that typically comes later in the fall. On the other hand, human nature dictates that we like to be with the winner, so if undecided voters think Obamas that guy, maybe they swing his way.

Uniqueness: Obama Winning AT: Hispanic Bump

Romneys gains with Hispanics were very small

Matt Barreto, Latino Decisions 9.3.12[http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/09/03/tracking-poll-wave-2-romney-gains-post-convention/]While Romney made some gains following the RNC convention, the gains are relatively small. After their best week of coverage in which Romney and the RNC got to dictate the message, and President Obama struggled for coverage, Romney still maintains a net negative favorability rating of -23 while the President enjoys a net positive favorability rating of +43. And while Romney is inching towards one-third of the Latino vote, the data still suggest that close to two-thirds of Latinos (64%) plan to vote against Romney. In looking at the question about perceptions of party outreach to Hispanics, the impreMedia/Latino Decisions tracking poll reveals almost no movement in the larger images of either party. One week ago 14% thought the Republican party was doing a good job of outreach to Hispanics, and today that number is 17%. Combined, 72% of Latinos think the Republican party either doesnt care or is being hostile towards Hispanics, and that number that will take more than a 3-day convention to move. As Governor Jeb Bush acknowledge during the RNC, Republicans need tostop acting stupid and to have a tone that is open and hospitable, if they want to win over Latino voters.

Obama still has a strong lead on the issue of the economy

Matt Barreto, Latino Decisions 9.3.12[http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/09/03/tracking-poll-wave-2-romney-gains-post-convention/]The Republicans believe their path to the Latino vote is through the troubled economy, a message they reiterated during the RNC convention. However Latino voters may not share their views of who is to blame, and who can fix things. Last week, the impreMedia/Latino Decisions tracking pollasked who was to blame for the current state of the economy and 68% of Latinos said the policies of the Bush administration, compared to 14% who blamed Obama. This week we asked, thinking about the future of our economy, which party do you trust more to make the right decisions andimprove our economic conditions? Here, 59% of Latinos said they trust Obama and the Democrats compared to 30% who said Romney and the Republicans. In courting Latinos, the Republicans need to do more than point the finger at Obama, they need to provide a clear policy alternative that does not sound like Bush tax cuts that would seem to benefit the Latino community. To this point, Latinos continue to give the Democrats a 2-1 advantage on fixing the economy. Back inFebruary 2011 the impreMedia/Latino Decisions tracking pollasked what strategy was best for turning around the economy, and 57% said the federal government should invest in projects while 27% said we should lower taxes, a number quite consistent with the 59-30 advantage reported today, 19 month later on which party is best to fix the economy.

Uniqueness: Obama Winning AT: GOP Convention

Convention didnt help Romney

Mark Blumenthal, Huffington Post, 9.3.12[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/03/republican-convention-mitt-romney_n_1852052.html?utm_hp_ref=politics]Polling tracking the impact of the Republican convention has been sparse, but on Monday the Gallup Poll weighed in with anew surveyshowing the convention had only a "minimal impact" on the fortunes of Republican nominee Mitt Romney. In interviews conducted over the three days since the close of the Republican convention, Gallup found roughly the same number of Americans saying the convention made them more likely to support Republican nominee Mitt Romney (40 percent) as saying it made them less likely to support him (38 percent).

Too soon to tell if convention had any impact

Mark Blumenthal, Huffington Post, 9.3.12[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/03/republican-convention-mitt-romney_n_1852052.html?utm_hp_ref=politics]All of this may turn out to be a momentary flutter in the data. AsProfessor Thomas Holbrook has shown, each party typically receives a bump from its convention, and the back-to-back timing of this year's conventions makes it much tougher to measure and interpret the shifts. Up until 2008, party conventions were held weeks or months apart, so pollsters were better able to examine each "bump" in isolation. Historically, the net impact ofbothconventions combined has producedlarge and sustained shifts in voter preferences, although the impact in recent years has been more modest. Watching the bouncing polling ball can be fun, but analysts will need to wait until mid-September to know whether this year's conventions have had a meaningful impact on the race.

No convention momentum for Romney

Nate Silver, New York Times, 9.3.12[http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/03/sept-2-split-verdict-in-polls-on-romney-convention-bounce/]But the one eventuality we probably can take off the table is the notion that Mr. Romney would emerge from his convention with unmistakable momentum, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980 or Bill Clinton did in 1992. His bounce may turn out to be just fine once we see a few more polls, and how the numbers move after Charlotte. But Mr. Obama is unlikely to make it easy for Mr. Romney.


Republican convention didnt help Romney much

Steve Kornacki, Salon, 9.3.12[http://www.salon.com/2012/09/03/the_gop_convention_was_a_bust/]A new Rasmussen poll gives the GOP nominee a four-point lead over Barack Obama, but Gallups poll actually shows Obama ahead by one an improvement on where he was before the Republican convention started. Theres also anew Reuters/Ipsos surveythat shows the race tied, indicating a small bump for Romney, was trailed by four points in the same poll last week. Overall, the Real Clear Politics averageshows Obama aheadby 0.1 points. Nate Silverestimatesthat Romney received a bounce of about two or three points. This qualifies as a disappointment for Romney, who had an opportunity to open his first clear lead on Obama since emerging from the GOP primaries. It was especially important for Romney to do this because of the strong possibility that Obama will receive a bounce of his own from this weeks Democratic convention. If Obama benefits from a stronger bounce, he could enter next week with a sizable lead.

Fact checking all the errors minimized the bounce that Romney got from the convention

Steve Kornacki, Salon, 9.3.12[http://www.salon.com/2012/09/03/the_gop_convention_was_a_bust/]Itseasy to dismissthe impact of fact-checkers on public opinion; its one of the reasonsI initially expectedthat the GOP ticket wouldnt pay much of a price for Paul Ryansepically dishonestspeech last week. But that was premature. Fact-checkers came down hard on Ryan last Thursday and Friday, and itbled overinto objective reporting on the race. The Romney campaign wasnt expecting this. AsI wrote last week, outrage from editorial boards, fact-checkers and ad watch columns is built into their formula; but when the dominant theme of major, down-the-middle news outlets becomes the factual corner-cutting at their convention, they have a problem. That may be what happened last week too much critical news coverage, not enough Romneys triumphant moment! coverage. Ezra Kleinsaysthe role fact-checkers played in Tampa was a revelation: Theyre stiffening the medias spine when presented with lies and deceptions. Previously, it was difficult for reporters to say that a politician said X, and that was a lie. Thats taking sides, even if its simply taking the side of the truth. But now they can say that a politician said X, andthe fact checkerssaid it was a lie.


The gop convention wont help Romney - it wasnt very good

Steve Kornacki, Salon, 9.3.12[http://www.salon.com/2012/09/03/the_gop_convention_was_a_bust/]Or maybe Republicans just missed an opportunity to lay out a compelling vision and to build excitement among voters. Part of this wasnt their fault; Hurricane Isaac forced the cancelation of the first day of the convention and commanded heavy news coverage, making it harder for the GOP to break through. But there was also Chris Christies keynote speech, which mainlyattracted attentionbecause of how much of it was about Christie and how little was about Romney. There was also Thursday nights Clint Eastwood debacle, when the 82-year-old actor ate up 15 minutes of the prime 10 p.m. hour with an incoherent colloquy with an empty chair. It was a truly bizarre spectacle that distracted from Romneys big moment and stirred more water cooler talk on Friday than anything the candidate said.

Link: Plan Popular - General

many voters say federal policy on transportation infrastructure will influence their votes

Houston Chronicle 5.12.12[http://www.chron.com/business/press-releases/article/Americans-Value-Highways-and-Bridges-as-a-3568488.php]A new survey from HNTB Corporation finds two-thirds (66 percent) of Americans who intend to vote during this year's presidential election feel that a candidate's standing on American transportation infrastructure will influence their decision; more than one in five (22 percent) say this will be extremely influential on who they vote for. "Our highways, bridges and other transportation infrastructure are essential assets that support growth and investment in the U.S. economy," saidPete Rahn, HNTB leader national transportation practice. "People expect them to be resilient, reliable and safe." Clearly, Americans hold the nation's infrastructure in high regard. Nearly nine in ten (89 percent) Americans feel its important for the federal government to fund the maintenance and improvements of interstate highways.

Despite opposition to some funding, the public overall supports new transportation infrastructure programs

Rockefeller Foundation Infrastructure Survey 2011[http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/uploads/files/80e28432-0790-4d42-91ec-afb6d11febee.pdf]Voters of all political stripes are tired of partisan gridlock in Washingtonthey want leaders to work together and seek compromise to get things done for the country. They overwhelmingly say elected leaders should cooperate when it comes to transportation infrastructure, seeing improvement in this area as a way to improve the economy, make communities safer, and improve Americans quality of life. And while voters oppose some funding streams they widely endorse others, and they clearly see a need for reform when it comes to financing transportation projects.


Voters see Transportation infrastructure as important

Rockefeller Foundation Infrastructure Survey 2011[http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/uploads/files/80e28432-0790-4d42-91ec-afb6d11febee.pdf]Even with a highly polarized electorate that remains steadfast in its belief that things in the nation are off on the wrong track there is wide agreementacross the partisan spectrumthat leaders in Washington should be seeking common ground. Nowhere is this more true than legislation related to the countrys transportation infrastructure. Indeed, two in three voters say that making improvements in infrastructure is very important, and most voters say that in its current state the nations transportation system is barely adequate. Voters seek better and safer roads and more public transportation options, widely agreeing that the United States would benefit from an expanded and improved public transportation system.

Voters support getting something done on TI

Rockefeller Foundation Infrastructure Survey 2011[http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/uploads/files/80e28432-0790-4d42-91ec-afb6d11febee.pdf]Voters want common ground on transportation legislation more than on any other issue. Americans want leaders to seek common ground across a host of issues, but they want it on transportation legislation more than any other area. 71% of voters say there should be common ground on this issuehigher than other major issueswhile 19% say leaders should hold fast to their positions, which is lower than other major issues. By comparison, the next-highest issue is legislation dealing with the budget deficit, where 69% would like to see common ground and 25% want to see leaders holding fast to their positions.


Most voters, across the political spectrum, agree that current TI is inadequate

Rockefeller Foundation Infrastructure Survey 2011[http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/uploads/files/80e28432-0790-4d42-91ec-afb6d11febee.pdf]Two in three voters say that improving the nations infrastructure is highly important, and many say our current infrastructure system is inadequate. 66% of voters say that improving the countrys transportation infrastructure is extremely (27%) or very (39%) important. Another 27% say it is somewhat important. Just 6% say it is not important. Again, majorities of Democrats (74%), independents (62%), and Republicans (56%) say this is very or extremely important, as do 59% of Tea Party supporters. The importance of improving infrastructure also is consistent regardless of the length of a voters commutewhether their commute is less than 15 minutes (60% important), between 15 and 44 minutes (69%), or 45 minutes or longer (63%). Indeed, 44% say that roads are often or totally inadequate and that only some public transportation options exist for those who want them. Only 4% of voters say that roads are totally adequate with lots of public transportation options, while 50% say roads are mostly adequate and there are just enough public transportation options.

public strongly supports infrastructure spending including paying for it

David Madland and Nick Bunker, Center for American Progress, March 22, 2012[www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2012/03/pdf/middle_class_infrastructure.pdf]And make no mistake, the broader American public supports increased investments in infrastructure. Ninety-three percent feel making improvements to infrastructure is important; 72 percent support increasing federal spending to build and repair roads, bridges, and schools; and 81 percent are prepared to pay more in taxes to do so.

Plan Popular Seen as a Jobs Program

The president can use infrastructure bills on the jobs issUE

The Hill July 6, 2012[http://thehill.com/blogs/transportation-report/highways-bridges-and-roads/236519-obama-signs-highway-bill]Obama has touted the highway bill as a jobs bill, and at the White House signing ceremony he was surrounded by construction workers and students. The ceremony began after the president concluded a two-day campaign trip through the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. First of all, this bill will keep thousands of construction workers on the job rebuilding our nations infrastructure," Obama said in a quick speech delivered less than an hour after he landed at Andrews Air Force base in suburban Washington.

Infrastructure programs tied to middle class economic program

Donna Cooper, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress 1.25.12[http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/technology/news/2012/01/25/10912/will-congress-block-infrastructure-spending/]Just as America refocused its war resources on building our nations highway system after World War II, President Barack Obamas State of the Union address included a courageous call for Congress to redirect half of the funds formerly claimed for the war in Iraq to rebuild our nations crumbling infrastructure. His strong pitch for putting Americans to work repairing our infrastructure is an essential element of the presidents strategy to help the middle class grow and prosper.

Plan Popular Seen as a Jobs Program Ohio Example

Obama has used infrastructure projects for election boosts in states like ohio

John Spinelli, Ohio News Bureau, 8.19.12[http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-back-ohio-tuesday-following-last-week-s-innovation-infrastructure-news]Following announcements last week that the White House will pump$30 millioninto an innovative additive manufacturing hub in Youngstown and another$12 millionof unspent Bush-era dollars into 15 transportation infrastructure projects across Ohio,President Obamais returning Tuesday to the tipping-point state of the dozenbattleground states that will decided whether he and Vice President Joe Biden keep their jobs for another four years or whether GOP presumptive candidate Mitt Romneyand his Wisconsin running mate Paul Ryantake the helm of a nation that desperately wants to set sail but is stuck in port, due in large part to the unwillingness of Republicansin an election year to agree with the White House on virtually anything.


Neither Romney or Obama has won the economic argument yet but voters believe infrastructure spending will create jobs

Greg Sergent, Washington Post, 8.27.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/why-the-weak-economy-hasnt-yet-doomed-obama/2012/08/27/d46c5028-f05e-11e1-adc6-87dfa8eff430_blog.html]Indeed, its not clear either candidate has won the argument about the economy. In thelatest Post poll, Romney holds a seven point advantage on the generic question of who should be trusted on the economy. But it also finds thatthe two are tiedon which mans election will result in an improved economy. Forty three percent say they are confident the economy will get on track of Obama is reelected; 56 percent say they are not. The numbers for Romney? A virtually identical 43-55. And a majority says spending more on infrastructure, rather than cutting taxes, is the way to create jobs, 52-33. Public opinion is conflicted and in flux; expectations have been revised downward;no onehas won the argument about the way forward yet.

Obama connects transportation infrastructure with jobs in the campaign

Burgess Everett, Politico, 8.31.12[http://www.politico.com/morningtransportation/0812/morningtransportation218.html]Maybe, if President Barack Obamas interview with Time magazine released Thursday is any indication. Rebuilding our infrastructure, our roads and our bridges and our ports and our airports, the president told Michael Scherer, is one of those things that help make us grow [that] are compatible with fiscal discipline as long as everybody is doing their fair share. Obama indicated that after the election, bipartisan space on traditionally non-ideological issues like infrastructure should open back up once the GOP is not concentrating on his political demise, he said. We still need to rebuild our infrastructure, he said of one of an array of issues where historically at least, weve been able to bridge some of these partisan divides.

Transportation spending is sold as jobs

Burgess Everett, Politico, 1.3.12[http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71028.html]Building roads and rails is central to President Barack Obamas economic recovery plans. Congressional leaders are calling new long-term surface transportation legislation this Congresss jobs bill. So in Washington, transportation means jobs.


The public overwhelmingly supports infrastructure spending and see it as creating jobs

Washington Post 4.23.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/experts-want-to-build-public-support-for-infrastructure-projects/2012/04/23/gIQAvmMXcT_story.html]The plan to energize public support was outlined Monday in a report by transportation experts brought together by theMiller Centerat the University of Virginia. After aconferencethis past November, the group concluded that most Americans are aware of the infrastructure crisis and support spending to address it. Recent public-opinion surveys have found overwhelming support for the idea ofinfrastructure investment, the report said. After the bridge to nowhere controversies of recent years, the public has become sensitized to issues of pork-barrel spending and understandably demands to see a clear connection between federal expenditures, actual transportation needs, and economic benefits. Despite apprehension about wasteful spending, the report said, more than two-thirds of voters surveyed by the Rockefeller Foundation saidinfrastructure improvementwas important and 80 percent said spending on it would create millions of jobs.

Public supports smart investment in transportation, see it as promoting growth and jobs in their local area

Miller Center, University of Virginia 2012[Are We There Yet? Selling America on Transportation, Miller Center University of Virginia, 2012, p.9]Research and experience, however, suggest that this erosion of support for transportation investments does not necessarily extend to the American public. Most citizens voice support for public spending on transportation when they perceive that this spending will result in positive outcomes at the local level. In general, the public also remains receptive to the message that smart transportation investments can make a positive long-term contribution to economic growth, U.S. competitiveness, and job creation.


Opinion polls show public supports investment in transportation infrastructure as boosting local area jobs

Miller Center, University of Virginia 2012[Are We There Yet? Selling America on Transportation, Miller Center University of Virginia, 2012, p.16]Meanwhile, recent public-opinion surveys have found overwhelming support for the idea of infrastructure investment. In a 2011 survey conducted by the Rockefeller Foundation, for example, two-thirds of voters said that improving the nations infrastructure is important, and 80 percent agreed that federal funding to improve and modernize transportation will boost local economies and create millions of jobs from construction to manufacturing to engineering. Similarly, a poll conducted by CBS News and The New York Times between October 19 and October 24, 2011 showed that eight in ten Americans approve of government spending for roads and bridges as a way to boost employment.

The public sees TI as a jobs program that will boost their local economy and create jobs

Rockefeller Foundation Infrastructure Survey 2011[http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/uploads/files/80e28432-0790-4d42-91ec-afb6d11febee.pdf]The public understands the economic benefits of infrastructure improvement. Four in five (80%) voters agree that federal funding to improve and modernize transportation will boost local economies and create millions of jobs from construction to manufacturing to engineering. Just 19% disagree with this. And 79% agree that in order for the United States to remain the worlds top economic superpower we need to modernize our transportation infrastructure and keep it up to date. Again, 19% disagree.

Plan Popular Republican Opposition Proves

Republican opposition proves Infrastructure legislation would help president Obama win the election

Donna Cooper, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress 1.25.12[http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/technology/news/2012/01/25/10912/will-congress-block-infrastructure-spending/]None of this is news to the House Republicans. They are desperate to shift attention away from their failure to advance legislation to address our nations crumbling infrastructure because they are more concerned with blocking a jobs victory for President Obama that would help him win the 2012 presidential election.

Republicans opposed infrastructure bills because they know it will help obamas re-election

Donna Cooper, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress 1.25.12[http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/technology/news/2012/01/25/10912/will-congress-block-infrastructure-spending/]Indeed, Sen. McConnellblockedpassage of the Senate version of the Jobs Act whilelambasting the presidentfor pointing it out and blasting the Senate Democrats for not working with the House Republicans to reach a compromise. But that statement begs the question of why McConnell isnt working with his own partys leadership in the House to make sure the Senate receives a bill that has a chance of a positive vote. The answer is clear: The Republican leadership is very concerned that responding to the American popular call for infrastructure investment will benefit President Obama politicallynever mind the pain suffered by the American people and our future economic competitiveness by their failure to act.

Plan Popular AT: GOP Helped by the Plan

Infrastructure jobs dont help republicans

Burgess Everett, Politico, 8.31.12[http://www.politico.com/morningtransportation/0812/morningtransportation218.html]Republicans have made jobs the No. 1 issue in an election year thats seen little substantial legislating. But one of the few big bills that has sailed through the transportation law isnt being talked about at the RNC. Infrastructure isnt a big national topic (or as former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell recently wrote, Infrastructure may be one of the least sexy words in the English language), particularly as part of a massive political messaging event like a party convention. But if it was going to be made an issue, an event focused on jobs and the economy would seem to be a natural fit. The simple fact is that for the GOP, linking jobs to federal infrastructure investment just doesnt jive with the overall RNC theme: The private sector creates jobs, not the government.

Plan Popular Plan Seen as Bold Economic Action

The public is looking for a big economic idea, like a major infrastructure program Robert Reich, professor of public policy, University of California, 8.5.12[www.metrowestdailynews.com/opinion/x1602167679/Reich-The-anti-election-of-2012]Yet the public wants bigger ideas from the president, and wants to know what hell do in his second term to get us out of this mess. A recent New York Times-CBS News poll showed that a majority of voters believe the president can do a lot about the economy. Thats a double-digit jump from the fall of 2011. The president could propose a new WPA, modeled after the Depression-era jobs program that hired hundreds of thousands of jobless Americans to rebuild the nations infrastructure, and a new Civilian Conservation Corps.

Plan Popular Suburbs Internal Link

Federal aid for infrastructure is important for aging suburbs

Lawrence Levy, Newsday, 8.17.12[http://www.newsday.com/opinion/oped/levy-mitt-romney-and-barack-obama-can-t-forget-the-suburbs-1.3911198]Meanwhile, the iconic post-World War IIsuburbs are getting older --Levittownjust turned 65 -- and they're showing their age. Many, includingNassau,Suffolkand Westchester, require huge infusions of cash to redevelop decayed downtowns, provide affordable housing, ease traffic congestion, preserve open space and protect the environment. The federal government once paid a large share of many of these public works, which even the wealthiest suburban communities can't afford on their own. But the feds, as well as most states, have cut way back on local assistance.

Specific infrastructure programs have appeal to suburban voters

Lawrence Levy, Newsday, 8.17.12[http://www.newsday.com/opinion/oped/levy-mitt-romney-and-barack-obama-can-t-forget-the-suburbs-1.3911198]Republicans, however, have an opening. The Hofstra poll suggests that suburbanites have little confidence in the federal government, as well as in their own futures. Even as Democrats are caricaturing Ryan as a fiscal and socialDarth Vader, Republicans are calling Obama an incompetent who couldn't get the job done. TheGOPisn't talking up less help from government, but better and more affordable help. Game on. What suburbanites should fear the most, however, is neither cuts nor incompetence, but inattention to their specific, place-based problems. They need to hear how the presidential candidates will help these fragmented and sometimes isolated suburban communities with their infrastructure, education, housing, health care and other needs.


Jobs and the economy are the key to suburban voters now

Robert Brodsky, Newsday, 8.1.12[http://www.newsday.com/elections/mitt-romney-or-barack-obama-suburban-voters-will-pick-next-president-poll-finds-1.3874645]Obama's support tracks closely with suburbanites' views of the economy. Among 1,005 suburban residents interviewed, including 844 who are registered to vote and 161 who are not, 33 percent said they were worse off financially than they were four years ago. Only 28 percent said they were doing better, and 37 percent saw no change in their fiscal condition. Those numbers are slightly more optimistic than in past Hofstra polls. Suburban residents will vote their pocketbooks in November, said Michael Dawidziak, a Bohemia campaign consultant who works primarily withRepublicans. "The economy and jobs blow everything else away," he said. "Nothing even comes close." Said Levy: "This is not your mother and father's suburb. The pain of therecessionhas reached into areas that were once the most prosperous."

Suburban voters are against government spending in the abstract, but favor specifics like infrastructure projects

Greg Sargent, Washington Post, 8.2.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/americans-hate-government-but-they-love-medicare-social-security-and-environmental-regulations/2012/08/02/gJQApvRQSX_blog.html]Anew poll out from Hofstra University, which dug deep into the opinions of suburban voters a key national swing constituency is pretty interesting along these lines. It finds Obama and Mitt Romney exactly split among these voters. But on the questions of government spending and regulation, their verdict is clear: They are inclined against them in the abstract, but areadamantly opposed to cutting themwhen the talk turns to specifics. * More than seven in 10 suburban residents say they favor cutting federal spending in general. But when you get specific, 87 percent oppose cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits. And 65 percent supportincreasinggovernment spending on infrastructure and public works projects.


Suburbanites favor protecting the environment

Greg Sargent, Washington Post, 8.2.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/americans-hate-government-but-they-love-medicare-social-security-and-environmental-regulations/2012/08/02/gJQApvRQSX_blog.html]A majority, 51 percent, says government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. But when you get specific, nearly two thirds of them say the environment should be protected by doing whatever it takes. Even when you add into the equation that regulation might cost jobs, a bare majority still says strict environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost. Keep in mind these are suburbanites, not overall Americans.

suburban voters support infrastructure spending on green jobs

National Center for Suburban Studies (Hofstra University) July 2012[Sixth National Suburban Survey, Princeton Survey Research Associates Intl, p. 19]Turning the issue around, there is majority support for increasing some government spending. Nearly two-thirds of suburban dwellers (65%) support increasing spending on roads, bridges, and other public works projects, while 30 percent oppose it. Despite recent controversies around federal money lost in supporting the Solyndra Corp., 53 percent support increasing federal spending to create green jobs that focus on the environment. Forty-one percent of suburban residents oppose such increases.

Plan Popular Suburbs Internal Link AT: Spending Unpopular

The ryan budget is very unpopular with suburban voters

Carville and Greenberg, Democracy Corps, 8.11.12[www.democracycorps.com/.../904/DCorps.Ryan.081112.pdf,Paul Ryan Pick Could Seriously Erode Romneys Support, p.2]Most importantly, this erosion was steepest among swing voters. After hearing about the Ryan budget and an even debate on both sides, Obama gained a net 9 points among independents, with Romneys vote among this group dropping to just 40 percent. Among seniors, Romneys net 11-point edge eroded to just a 2-point margin. Dramatically, Romneys initial 20-point advantage among white seniors was reduced by more than halfto just 9 points with this critical group. Among suburban voters, it is no contestafter hearing about the Ryan budget and Romneys support for it, Obama won suburban voters by an 18-point margin on the final ballot.

Plan Unpopular General

the public doesnt support federal infrastructure spending

Ken Orski, Editor, Publisher of Innovation NewsBriefs, 2.5.12[Innovation NewsBriefs is a transportation newsletter that has been published for 20years. Orski was formerly Associate Administrator for the Federal Urban Mass Transit Administration, http://www.newgeography.com/content/002662-why-pleas-increase-infrastructure-funding-fall-deaf-ears]There are various theories why appeals to increase infrastructure spending do not resonate with the public. One widely held view is that people simply do not trust the federal government to spend their tax dollars wisely. As proof, evidence is cited that a great majority of state and local transportation ballot measures do get passed, because voters know precisely where their tax money is going. No doubt there is much truth to that. Indeed, thanks to local funding initiatives and the use of tolling, state transportation agencies are becoming increasingly more self-reliant and less dependent on federal funding.

the public is skeptical of crumbling infrastructure claims because they dont see it- many proponents of new spending have a financial interest

Ken Orski, Editor, Publisher of Innovation NewsBriefs, 2.5.12[Innovation NewsBriefs is a transportation newsletter that has been published for 20years. Orski was formerly Associate Administrator for the Federal Urban Mass Transit Administration, http://www.newgeography.com/content/002662-why-pleas-increase-infrastructure-funding-fall-deaf-ears]Along with Lane, I think the American public is skeptical about alarmist claims of "crumbling infrastructure" because they see no evidence of it around them. State DOTs and transit authorities take great pride in maintaining their systems in good condition and, by and large, they succeed in doing a good job of it. Potholes are rare, transit buses and trains seldom break down, and collapsing bridges, happily, are few and far between. The oft-cited "D" that the American Society of Civil Engineers has given Americas infrastructure (along with an estimate of $2.2 trillion needed to fix it) is taken with a grain of salt, says Lane, since the engineers lobby has a vested interest in increasing infrastructure spending, which means more work for engineers. Suffering from the samecredibility problem are the legions of road and transit builders, rail and road equipment manufacturers, construction firms, planners and consultants that try to make a case for more money.


many examples where public doesnt support infrastructure projects

Ken Orski, Editor, Publisher of Innovation NewsBriefs, 10.20.10[Innovation NewsBriefs is a transportation newsletter that has been published for 20years. Orski was formerly Associate Administrator for the Federal Urban Mass Transit Administration, http://www.newgeography.com/content/001822-living-in-denial-about-transportation-funding]Indeed, what the lawmakers see is just the opposite. They witness New Jersey voters strongly approving Governor Chris Christies decision to cancel work on the long-planned rail tunnel under the Hudson River because, says the Governor, "the state simply doesnt have the money" to pay for overruns in the potential $9-14 billion project. Mr. Christie, no doubt, has in mind the experience of Bostons Big Dig which was projected in 1982 to cost $2.8 billion and ended up costing $15 billion. The lawmakers also see Republican candidates for governor in California (Meg Whitman), Florida (Rick Scott), Ohio (John Kasich) and Wisconsin (Scott Walker) pledging to cancel high-speed rail projects in their states if elected and running ahead of their Democratic opponents who unanimously support President Obamas $8 billion high-speed rail initiative. They see the public greeting with a yawn a bold and visionary Amtrak proposal to link Boston and Washington with a dedicated high-speed rail line.

The public doesnt support infrastructure programs even in urban states

Ken Orski, Editor, Publisher of Innovation NewsBriefs, 10.20.10[Innovation NewsBriefs is a transportation newsletter that has been published for 20years. Orski was formerly Associate Administrator for the Federal Urban Mass Transit Administration, http://www.newgeography.com/content/001822-living-in-denial-about-transportation-funding]More evidence of public reluctance to spend on infrastructure comes from the findings of a new October 2010 survey by the Pew Center on the States and the Public Institute of California titled "Facing the Facts: Public Attitudes and Fiscal Realities in Five Stressed States." By a large margin, respondents in five states (California, Arizona, Florida, Illinois and New York) showed a strong unwillingness to support additional transportation funding and offered to put transportation on the chopping block when asked which of their state's biggest expenses they would least protect from budget cuts.


popularity of federal transportation programs is declining

Ken Orski, Editor, Publisher of Innovation NewsBriefs, 10.20.10[Innovation NewsBriefs is a transportation newsletter that has been published for 20years. Orski was formerly Associate Administrator for the Federal Urban Mass Transit Administration, http://www.newgeography.com/content/001822-living-in-denial-about-transportation-funding]As one of our colleagues, a sincere and lifelong transportation advocate, put it, "the transportation community is mostly talking to itself and living in denial about the changing political mood." That moodin the nation at large as well as in the next Congress is unmistakably becoming more conservative and skeptical of big government. An overwhelming 70 percent of Americans think the government does not spend taxpayers money wisely, according to a recent Rasmussen poll. Newly elected members of Congress will be marching to the drum of fiscal discipline and looking for ways to curb out-of-control spending, a GOP aide told us. Congress will be closely questioning costly new federal initiatives no matter how well intentioned, he added. The expansive federal-aid surface transportation program as we have known it in the past may no longer be thought politically acceptable or fiscally affordable.


The public believes we cant afford infrastructure investment or doubts its effectiveness

Norm Mineta, former Transportation Secretary, 2012[Are We There Yet? Selling America on Transportation, Miller Center University of Virginia, 2012, p.6]Despite broad support in principle, however, active public engagement on these issues has been elusive. While many Americans experience the inefficiencies of our current transport systems on a daily basis, other impactssuch as the impact of lost productivity on the broader economy or the impact of high transportation costs on the price of goodsare less immediately obvious. Faced with other urgent concerns and economic challenges, many Americans believe we simply cant afford to invest in transportation repairs and upgrades given our countrys current budget situation. Many also do not have faith that money allocated to transportation projects will be used in the most efficient and effective ways possible. Simply put, there is a lack of confidence and trust in the ability of policymakers to make good decisions in transportation policy and planning.

Plan Unpopular Even if Like TI, They Dont Like Federal

public does not trust federal infrastructure spending

Kenneth Orski, public policy consultant, May 17, 2012[http://www.infrastructureusa.org/advocates-of-higher-spending-are-facing-a-skeptical-audience/]Infrastructure Investment did not even make the top ten list of public priorities in the latest Pew Research Center survey of domestic concerns cited at the conference. Calls by two congressionally mandated commissions to vastly increase transportation infrastructure spending have gone ignored. So have repeated pleas by advocacy groups such as Building Americas Future, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Transportation for America. Why do appeals to increase infrastructure spending fail to resonate with the public? One widely held view is that people simply do not trust the federal government to spend their tax dollars wisely. As proof, evidence is cited that a great majority of state and local transportation ballot measures do get passed.

Programs from Washington are unpopular

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]The anti-Washington sentiment at the grassroots level remains strong and may be growing stronger. The Tea Party movement has furnished ample evidence that anti-Washington sentiment can become a powerful organizing force at the grassroots level. The approval rate for Congress has dropped below 10 percent. Washington is more unpopular than ever. Theres no way that Barack Obama can alter this reality: He is the candidate who lives in Washington and Mitt Romney is the candidate who has never lived in Washington.

Plan Unpopular Spending/Big Government

Voters are angry at government spending and deficits

San Francisco Chronicle 9.3.12[http://blog.sfgate.com/nov05election/2012/09/03/the-balance-sheet-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-ten-political-assets-liabilities/]Most Americans are angry and/or upset by the record federal deficits and the explosive growth in the national debt during the Obama presidency. The presidents lowest rating on any issue is the budget deficit. Just 30 percent of voters approve of Obamas handling of the federal budget. Even a substantial portion of Obama supporters have reservations about his economic stewardship of the nation. And Obamas five-year budget projects offer little relief in the red ink. The Democrats only hope is to convince voters that the deficit would increase even more under the proposed Romney-Ryan tax cuts.

Voters moving toward favoring smaller government

Chris Cillizza, Washington Post, 8.27.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/08/27/the-10-numbers-that-matter-in-the-new-washington-post-abc-news-poll/]Small government > big government: In the decades-long fight over how much government is enough/too much, the forces of small(er) government seem to have won out at least for the moment. Fifty-six percent of people said they favored smaller government and less services while 38 percent said they preferred a larger government with more services. Those numbers are particularly important given that a part of Obamas 2008 campaign was premised on the idea that government was necessary and could be a good thing something people felt acutely after the Bush administrations (mis)handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Plan Unpopular Only Like TI if it Helps Them Directly

The public is skeptical of infrastructure spending and support it only if it helps them locally

Miller Center, University of Virginia 2012[Are We There Yet? Selling America on Transportation, Miller Center University of Virginia, 2012, p.16-7]Of course, public support for infrastructure spending including transportationis neither universal nor unconditional. After the bridge to nowhere controversies of recent years, the public has become sensitized to issues of pork-barrel spending and understandably demands to see a clear connection between federal expenditures, actual transportation needs, and economic benefits. The priority accorded to transportation investment also varies from region to region and community to community, since most Americans view infrastructure challenges and successes through the lens of what is happening in the places where they live and travel.

Plan Unpopular AT: Suburbs Internal Link

Suburban women support lower government spending to reduce the debt

Heidi Kelly, political and communications consultant, CrossCut, Seattle, 8.16.12[http://crosscut.com/2012/08/16/op-ed/110050/andrea-mitchell-paul-ryan-suburban-women-wrong/]Suburban women are still concerned about womens issues as baby boomers perceive them, but Generation X knows that a better health care system and a stronger education for our children depend on whether our generations can come together and fix the federal budget. This election is about asking the federal government to do what suburban women have been doing for the last four years: pay down our debt, balance the budget, do more with less, and begin to rely on each other instead of the government. Women dont want Social Security or Medicare cut to shreds because our parents depend on them, but we believe these entitlements can and must be reformed and brought into the modern era, so we dont bankrupt our childrens future. Paul Ryan is speaking our language. It should be perfectly obvious why the first national politician to spring from Generation X focused his attention completely on the budget crisis. He understands that we want to protect the generations that sandwich ours, and that makes him the perfect pick to appeal to suburban women; women who are worried simultaneously about the future of their parents and their own children.

The public generally supports smaller government, especially independents

William Galston, Brookings Institution, 5.10.12[Six Months To Go: Where the Presidential Contest Stands as the General Election Begins, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/05/10-obama-campaign-galston]Beyond this overall shift, there is evidence that the high-profile controversies during Obamas presidency have affected public attitudes on what has become the defining ideological question in our politicsthe role of government. As recently as 2004, almost half of all Americans were satisfied with the size and power of the federal government. Four years later, 41 percent were still satisfied. This year, only 29 percent remain satisfied. (Among Independents, the number is even lower24 percent.) For the first time in at least a decade, dissatisfaction with the federal government now exceeds dissatisfaction with major corporationsa remarkable fact, given the damaging misjudgments so many businesses made in the years before the Great Recession. Having made aggressive use of the federal government to stimulate the economy and reform health care, President Obama now finds himself playing ideological defense. In the most recent ABC/Washington post survey, only 22 percent of the respondents said that his views on the size and role of government were a reason to support him for reelection. Nearly twice as many39 percentsaid that his views were a reason to oppose him.

Plan Unpopular AT: Suburbs Internal Link

Swing, independent voters are critical of Obama on the issue of spending and deficits

William Galston, Brookings Institution, 5.10.12[Six Months To Go: Where the Presidential Contest Stands as the General Election Begins, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/05/10-obama-campaign-galston]A recent report found Obama statistically tied with Romney among Independents in swing states, with 36 percent of these Independents up for grabs. Among these Swing Independents, Obama now enjoys a lead of 44 to 38 percent. But there are some warning signs. These voters are split on Obamas economic management, and they strongly prefer Republicans both on the budget deficit and government spending, issues of great concern to them. And according to the report, they are not much moved by the fairness argument. By 57 to 38 percent, they said it was more important to fix the budget deficit than to reduce the income gap. A plurality42 percentthought that reducing the budget deficit was the single most effective way of strengthening the economy.

Suburban Voters Are Truly Swing Voters

Suburbanites are key swing voters

Lawrence Levy, Newsday, 8.17.12[http://www.newsday.com/opinion/oped/levy-mitt-romney-and-barack-obama-can-t-forget-the-suburbs-1.3911198]RepublicanMitt Romney's anointment last weekend of conservative iconPaul Ryanelectrified activists on the right and the left. But it's also good news for the more moderate, independent voters who really determine national elections. I'm talking about the suburbanites. And if they've been feeling left out of the debate while Romney andPresident Barack Obamahave sought to secure their "red" and "blue" core voters, Ryan's ascension to the ticket solidifies those bases -- and assures that both campaigns will shift toward suburban swing voters. If the candidates are smart, they'll also shift to the economic, social and environmental problems increasingly plaguing these communities. As a newUniversity of Minnesotastudy of American suburbs warns: "Policy makers could pay a political price for failing to connect" with voters in these diverse and needy places. And based on Hofstra University's latest National Suburban Poll, which has Romney and Obama in a dead heat among suburbanites, one in four respondents said they could change their minds before Election Day.

Suburbanites have little political loyalty they will switch easily from one party to another

Lawrence Levy, Newsday, 8.17.12[http://www.newsday.com/opinion/oped/levy-mitt-romney-and-barack-obama-can-t-forget-the-suburbs-1.3911198]More than 50 percent of the U.S. population lives in the suburbs, and party-switching is almost a pastime, especially in so-called inner-ring suburbs like those closest to New York City. On average, these suburbs "are evenly split between Democrats andRepublicans, and are often the political battlegrounds that determine elections," said theMinnesotastudy, conducted by Myron Orfield and Thomas Luce for the Institute for Metropolitan Opportunity. "They are more likely than other voters to switch parties from one election to another and, as a result, often decide the balance of state legislatures andCongressas well as the outcomes of gubernatorial and presidential elections." Hofstra's poll, released Aug. 3, showed marked gains for Obama among suburbanites nationwide -- moving him to a tie with Romney after having been down against him in a theoretical matchup in December. The shift, also seen in several measures of favorability among suburbanites, seems to reflect a rising confidence in the economy. But it's all fragile. Although improved, confidence in the economy is relatively low.

Suburban Voters - AT: Voters Have Already Decided

Most voters have decided, but suburban voters swing back and forth

John King, CNN, 5.16.12 [lexis]If you go back a campaign, go back four more years, four more years, four more years, the state hardly changes. Certain areas are locked in Republican, certain areas locked in Democrat. But you have the area, thesuburbanarea right around Cincinnati, thesuburbanarea right aroundColumbus and the suburbanarea up along the lake up around Cleveland.Suburbanvoters and as you mentioned,suburbanwomen, like in Pennsylvania, in those bigger states when they are locked so close, that's usually the key.

Suburban voters havent made up their minds they havent been paying attention yet

Reid Wilson, National Journal 7.17.12[http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/suburban-mothers-are-fall-s-key-swing-voters-20120712]President Obama and Mitt Romney can talk all they like, but the voters who will decide this year's presidential election aren't listening yet. That's because prototypical key swing voters this year are far more concerned with guiding their families through the slow and grinding economic recovery than they are with presidential politics. Those voters most likely to remain undecided about their presidential preference are taking on a distinct profile, according to pollsters on both sides of the aisle: They're suburban white women, between the ages of 35 and 55, who probably haven't attained a college degree and who have kids under the age of 18. They very likely voted Democratic in 2008, then turned around and voted Republican two years later if they voted at all.

Suburban Voters - Uniqueness

Neither Obama or Romney has reached suburban voters yet

Reid Wilson, National Journal 7.17.12[http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/suburban-mothers-are-fall-s-key-swing-voters-20120712]With such weighty economic situations on swing mothers' minds, both pollsters say neither Obama's nor Romney's campaign has truly reached these voters yet. And both candidates face challenges in relating: Obama contends with a sense of disappointment that his first term hasn't sped the economic recovery as much as they expected or that the recovery is leaving them behind. Romney contends with a growing sense that his business experience demonstrates he would favor the wealthy over the middle class.

Obama and Romney remained tied with suburban voters

NBC Poll (August 20), 8.21.12[http://www.theblaze.com/stories/nbcwsj-poll-shows-romney-support-among-blacks-at-zero-percent/]NBC Newsbreaks down the numbers from the poll: Obama continues to lead Romney among key parts of his political base, including African Americans (94 percent to 0 percent), Latinos (by a 2-to-1 margin), voters under 35-years-old (52 percent to 41 percent) and women (51 percent to 41 percent). Romney is ahead with whites (53 percent to 40 percent), rural voters (47 percent to 38 percent) and seniors (49 percent to 41 percent). And the two presidential candidates are essentially even when it comes to the swing groups of suburban voters, Midwest residents and political independents.

Suburban Voters Romney Barely Ahead

Romney is ahead in the suburbs now, but Obama is gaining, but suburban voters can swing back easily

National Center for Suburban Studies 8.1.12[http://www.hofstra.edu/Home/News/PressReleases/080112_SuburbanPoll.html]While Romney still holds a lead over Obama among suburban independent voters, 45 percent to 41 percent, his support from these critical swing voters is eroding, according to the sixth poll for the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. The number of independent suburban voters who give Obama a positive job rating stands at 40 percent, compared to 33 percent in 2011. And 41 percent of independents in the suburbs would vote for the president over Romney, up from 29 percent in 2011, the poll found. This shift means Obama and Romney are tied at 46 percent among all registered suburban voters. In 2011, suburban voters favored Romney over Obama, 48 percent to 40 percent. Suburban voters have been deciding national elections for about a generation so it's positive news for President Obama that his prospects have improved in the Crab Grass Frontier, said Lawrence Levy, Executive Dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies. But his standing with suburbanites -- which tracks with their feelings about the economy -- is volatile and could shift dramatically by November if they lose faith in their financial futures.

Suburban Voters Decide Key Swing States

Suburban counties are key in battleground states and they swing back and forth based on political preferences, not demographics

The Hill GOP12, 8.1.12[http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/romney-obama-tied-among-suburban-voters.html]Obama is doing best with suburban women, minorities, young voters, and those with a college degree. Romney is doing best with suburban men, whites, those over 35 years-old, and those with some college. We've been hearing for a while that the election will be won or lost in the suburbs, and that's true. There are a boatload of suburban counties in battleground states that supported Bush in 2004 but switched to Obama in 2008. In some cases, a simple matter of demographics caused the shift. But in quite a few (like Hamilton County, Ohio), it wasn't demographics. It was just a pure shift in preference among suburbanites.

The suburbs are key to ohio

John King, CNN, 5.16.12 [lexis]Now, why will this be a battleground in the fall? Well, because it always is. Let's go back and take a look. This is the 2008 election. Again,Senator Obamawinning a decent margin there, 52-47. But that's pretty close. If you go back to 2004,George W. Bushjust barely winning. What's different about 2008 and 2004? Look down here. Hamilton County, Cincinnati area down here,President Obama,thenSenator Obama,then carried it then. Make that go off.President Bushcarried it in '04.President Bushcarried it in 2000 as well. Also the suburbs around Cleveland, the suburbs aroundColumbusand again that area down around Cincinnati, those are the big battlegrounds in a general election in Ohio.

Suburban Voters AT: Its A Base Election

Not just a base election - Obama campaign trying to win the base and independent women

Chris Cillizza, The Fix, Washington Post, 8.19.12[http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2012-election-more-about-base-than-undecideds/2012/08/19/2cd2f98c-ea02-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_story.html]Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, acknowledged that 2012 is more a base election than a persuasion one but said that its both. She added: Though undecideds are small, you still have 15 percent of Obama voters and 25 percent of Romney voters who would consider voting for some

november evidence core

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