part Ⅲ 证券投资 择时

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Part 证证证证证证 Unit 7 证证证证证证证 Unit 8 证证证证证证证

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Part Ⅲ 证券投资 择时. Unit 7 投资环境与择时 Unit 8 技术分析与择时. Unit 7 投资环境与择时. 知识目标 1 ) 了解证券投资环境分析知识; 2 ) 理解证券投资环境变迁中的证券价值规律; 3 ) 掌握财政政策、货币政策和汇率政策环境的分析应用。 能力目标 1 ) 具备对过热经济环境下证券价格的分析能力; 2 ) 具备对偏冷经济环境下证券价格的分析能力; 3 ) 具备对金融环境造就证券投资机会的分析能力。. 训练项目 3 投资环境分析. 任务 3 - 1 货币环境分析 (任课教师指导学生自主选择时间段) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Part Unit 7 Unit 8

  • Unit 7 1 2 3 1 2 3

  • 31 20062007102007 3

  • 1. 300

  • 2.

  • 3.

  • 32 20084

  • 1. 300

  • 2.

  • 3.

  • 33 1k2DDMS34

  • 1. 2. 3. 4.

  • Unit 7.1 1.

    1 2

    3

  • 2. 1

  • 2 3 4

  • 3. 1 2

  • 4. 1

  • 2

  • 5. 1 1

  • 2

  • 2 3

  • 6. 1

  • 2

  • 3

  • 7. 1

  • 2

  • 1. P1701 GDP GDP GDP GDP3 1 2Unit 7.2

  • 2

  • 2. 1 GDP2 163

  • 3. 1GDPGDP2GDP GDP3

  • 4. P17812 1 2 3

  • 5. 12 3

  • 1

  • 2 3

  • 4 1

  • 2 3

  • 6. 12

  • 3 1 2 3

  • 4 1 2 3

  • 7. 1 1 2

  • 3 1 24 1 2

  • 8. 1 1GDP GDP GDP 2

  • 3

  • 2 1

  • 2 3 4

  • Unit 7.3 1. 1 2 1

  • 2

  • 3 1 2 3

  • 4 1 2 3

  • 5 1 2 3

  • 2. 1 1 2 3

  • 2 1WTO 2IMF

  • 3 4

  • 5

  • Unit 7.4 1. 1 50 23

  • 2. 12345678

  • 71 GDP2123456789

  • Unit 8 1 2 3 1 2 3

  • 4 41 3991061993219947

  • 36829234219433523528012916994.78

  • 22K 30039930020095200910kKK

  • 43 730120062009

  • 441. 19999991994232. 23003993002008

  • 1

  • 2

  • 45 300399300112369

  • 46 300399300K921RSIRSI

  • 8020

  • 1. 2. 3. 4.

  • Unit 8 .1 1. 2. 3. 4.

  • Unit 8 .1.1 1. 1

    2P213

  • 2. 1 2

    3

  • 3.

    123

  • Unit 8.1.2 1. 1 2

    3

  • 2. 1234

  • 3. 1234. 12

  • Unit 8.1.3 1. 123

    2. 1K23

  • 3. 1MA2RSI3MACD4KD5BIAS

  • Unit 8.1.4 1. 123

  • 4 1 2 3

  • 2. 1234

  • 3. 1 1 2 3

  • 23

  • 8[1]1212345678

  • Unit 8.2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

  • Unit 8.2.1 1. Wave Principle1 1 2 8 353 4 32 RNEllitt1939

  • 12345ABC2.

  • 1 18 2 5123453 3ABC23353

  • abc123abc45ABC

  • Unit 8.2.21. 1 1 22 1 2

  • 3 1 2 3 Extend wave4 1 2

  • 5 1 2

  • 2. 1A 1 2A

  • 2B

    1 B 2 B3C 1 C 2 C

  • Unit 8.2.3 1. 2. 1 5A25 35 9

  • 3. 13513512345112245435

  • 4. AC123451234512345

  • 5. AAcab12345c

  • 6.

    1991234567899123456789

  • 235C1234551234

  • 7.

    112345123451234123455

  • 21234512345

  • Unit 8.2.4 1. 2. 122423BBB

  • 3. ABCCAABCCA

  • 4.

    1ABCBACABACAABC

  • 2 BACAABCABC

  • 3 BACAABCABC

  • 5. 4B

  • 6. 1

    2

    abcxabcabcxabc

  • Unit 8.2.5 1.

    15325 A3

    2.

    1 2 C

  • 3 1 2 3 42 541

  • 3. 12C

  • ABC12345

  • Unit 8.2.61. Fibonacci13 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 2. 1212350.61831.61842.61850.382

  • 3. 0.382 0.5 0.618 0.819 1.00 1.618 2.618 4. 1

  • 2 153 2 19932 200151993+8=2001 20062007.102001+5=2006

  • 4. 1 368 94.75 10.3820.5 194.75+(36894.75) 0.5=232 2351.4% 210.6180.8191 223523594.75) 0.819=120 235(23594.75) 1=96 (120+96) 2=108 105

  • 312.618 3105+(235-94.75) 2.618=474 520 430.3820.51 4520(520-105) 0.5=313 520(520-105) 0.382=362 1235 (235+313+362) 3=303 308 5411.618 5308+(520-308) 1.618=651 666

  • 2 1 36894.75 2 0.3820.618 666 666-(666-105) 0.618=319 314.98 368

  • 368B331A194C 9594.07.2912352102352043086175A565B666C366X523A378453BC 235.6405.07.19

  • BAC12345

  • ABC12345

  • 8[2]1 212345C6789

  • Unit 8.3 1. K2. 3. 4.

  • Unit 8.3.1 KP2181. KK2. K12

  • 1K

    2K

  • 3K

    3. K1

  • ABC

  • 2

  • 3

    4

  • 4. K1 1

    ABC

  • 21234

  • 2

  • 3

  • 4

    5

  • 6

    7

  • Unit 8.3.2 P244

    1. 1V

  • 2

  • 3

  • 4

  • 5

  • 2. 1V

  • 2

  • 3

  • 4

  • 5

  • 3. 1

  • 2

  • 3

  • 4

  • 5

  • Unit 8.3.3 P2281. 12

  • 2. Trend Channel

  • 12345

  • 3. 1

    2

    3

  • Unit 8.3.4 1. 1KK K K2 3

  • 2. 1 2

  • 3

    4

  • 3. 1 2

  • 3 4

  • 4. 12 K3

  • 8[3]1 K2112K2K3K456789

  • Unit 8.4 P2331. MA2. MACD3. RSI4. KD5. BIAS6.

  • Unit 8.4.1MA1.

    NN

    2. 1

    Ci---MA=Ci N

  • 2

    MA=C11+C22+ +Cnn (1+2+3+ +n)MA=[(C1+C2) 1+(C2+C3) 2++(Cn-1+Cn)(n-1)] [21+22+ +2(n-1)MA=C112+C222+ +Cnn2 12+22+32+ n2)

  • 3 MAEMA EMAt

    4

    Ct1+EMA(t-1) (n-1) nEMAt=Ct2+EMA(t-1) (n-1) n+1EMAt=

  • 23bsbB69sbsbssbsS

  • 3.

    1 B

    B

    B

    B

    S

  • S S S

    2 N a b

  • SSBB

  • Unit 8.4.2 MACD1. MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence

    2. MACD

    1EMAnt-1(n-1)+Ct2 n+1EMAn=

  • 2EMA12EMA26

    EMA12=(EMA12t-111+Ct2)/13 EMA26=(EMA26t-125+Ct2)/27

    3DIF

    DIF=EMA12EMA26

    4n=9DIFDEA

    DEA9=(DEA9t-18+DIFt2)/10

    5

    =DIFDEA DIFDEAMACD

  • DIFDEAMACD0bsbsbsbSbsbs

  • 3. MACD

    1DIFDEA 0 0 DIFDEA2DIFDEA 0 0 DIFDEA3MACD4MACD

  • BS

  • S

  • Unit 8.4.3 RSI1. RSI Wells Wilder2. RSI1

    NNRS=

  • 2

    N---81421

    3RSI

    4RSIRSIRSI0100RSI NN+NRSI=100

  • 3. RSI1RSI RSI80 RSI20

    2RSI RSIRSI RSI RSIRSIRSI RSI RSI

  • 3RSI RSI RSI

    4RSI

    RSI RSI RSI

  • 1008050200RSIbssbsbssbsbsb

  • BS

  • BS

  • Unit 8.4.4 KD1. KD

    1KDStochastic

    2KD

    NKD

  • 2. KD1NRSVRow stochastic value RSVCtCl/ChCl100 RSV--- Ct--- Ch---N Cl---N2KD3N RSVN 9KDN 3

  • 3. KD

    1

    D>70 D

  • 3KD

    KD KD

    4 KD KD

    RSIKD 0~100RSIKD

  • Unit 8.4.5 BIAS1. BIAS

    BIAS

    2. BIAS

    BIAS1MAn/Ct100

    BIAS--- Man---nn Ct---

  • 3. BIAS1 BIAS00 BIAS>0 BIAS0 BIAS
  • >0

  • 8[4]1 MACDRSIKDBIAS.2123MACD4RSI5KD6KD7BIAS8BIAS