portland state university presentation on technology forecasting tools

Technology Forecasting Using TRIZ Methods and Tools

Portland State University

Engineering Management of Technology Winter ’09

Richard PlattOwner – PrincipalThe Strategy + Innovation Group LLC

- All Rights Reserved -- The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 2

Presenter BioCurrent Position: (09/06 – Present)

Owner of The Strategy + Innovation Group LLCPrevious Positions (Intel): (‘95 intern, 04/97 – 09/06)

Senior Instructor for Innovation Methods and Innovation/ TRIZ Program Manager

– Recruited and trained 13 instructors + >850 Engineers, PM’s, Technology Developers and R&D personnel

Quality and Reliability Engineer (EID)Technology Development Program Manager in:

1. ATTD2. Components Research3. Server Architecture LabManufacturing Engineer (ESG) Customer Program Manager (OPSD - intern)1 Intel Manufacturing Excellence Award5 Divisional Recognition Awards2 Patents and multiple defensive publicationsRefer to LinkedIn page for further discussions

Certifications: Innovation Master® , TRIZ Expert (+240 hours training, and testing), Lean and a Greenbelt in 6 Sigma

http://www.linkedin.com/myprofile?trk=hb_side_pro


Where:

*This formula (in more simplified form) proposed first by Boris Goldovsky in 1974.

I = the degree of idealityF = a function delivered of a positive effectP = negative effect, expensesi = a number of variable Fj = a number of variable P

Law of Ideality Equation

∞

∞

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Altshuller identified a trend in which systems always evolve towards increasing 'ideality' and that this evolution process takes place through a series of evolutionary S-curve characteristics. Used as a problem definition tool, the ideality part of TRIZ encourages problem solvers to break out of the traditional 'start from the current situation' type of thinking, and start instead from what is described as the Ideal Final Result (IFR). The concept of Ideality, the Ideal Final Result (IFR), and is to not accept compromise, sacrifice or trade-offs The main law of technology evolution: all systems evolve towards the increase of degree of ideality An ideal system is a system that does not exist but its function is delivered The idea of an ideal technical system is a fundamental concept of the theory of inventive problem solving Ideality does not mean unreality. In many instances the Law of Ideality, a.k.a. the Ideal Final Result or IFR can be fully achieved. Sometimes the "ideal" product is achieved by having its function performed by another product or another part of the system, or together with another product or part. Sometimes the "ideal" process is achieved by preliminarily action being performed beforehand, so there is no need to waste time and energy at the "necessary" moment. It is important that the IFR be kept in mind at all times during the problem-solving process.


Higher Level Functionality

=Higher Value

BenefitsCosts

Improved performance

Lower expendituresFewer harmful effects

Simple Formula for Value

Business Goal:Generate a profit while delivering unrivaled customer value

Confidential

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The Law of Ideality in Action

1/1,000,000 the size; 1/10,000,000 the weight1/1,000,000 the cost10,000,000 X the performance and reliability

Functionality Functionality and and

performance performance increases increases

at at lower costslower costs

Source: Intel

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Let’s take a look at how Intel Architecture processors has obeyed the LAW of Ideality Moore’s law actually came later in time. 1956 is when the law of ideality was 1st introduced. Moore’s Law came about in 1964? Let’s look at history to see how accurately the evolution of computing has tracked Gordon’s exponential growth prediction over the past 30 years. Perhaps the best analogy for the growth in computing performance is to relate it to the evolution of the auto industry and one its major performance metrics – top speed in miles per hour. The Law of Ideality EXISTS for all engineering systems. The thing that is preventing ideality is the different subsystems w/in the engineering system reach a level of maturity at different rates. The other subsystems that are not at a high level of maturity are what is holding back the overall evolution of the system


Benefits

Costs

Increasing Value

Benefits

Costs

Conventional way TRIZ way

Innovation can be risky and expensive, it typically involves a random search for solutions (trial-and-error).

These solutions are often costly mistakes providing a time advantage to competitors.


Infancy Rapid growth Maturity

Decline

Ben

efit-

to-c

ost

Time

Technology Innovation: S-curve

Make it work

Maximize efficiency

Minimize cost

Prove idea

Next-generation

Presenter

Presentation Notes


Moore’s Law & the Law of IdealityS-Curves are located at every process change & successive generation (all the way to 300mm wafers, from 1.0u to 0.8u, and so on)

MIPSMIPS

Pentium® ProProcessor

Pentium® IIProcessor

Pentium® IIIProcessor

Pentium® 4Processor

Intel386TM DX Microprocessor

Intel486TM DX CPU Microprocessor

1

10

100

1000

10000

1985 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

MIPS

$/MIPS$/MIPS

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

$/MIPS

Silicon Technology

1.5µ

1.0µ0.8µ

0.6µ

0.4µ0.25µ

0.18µ0.13µ

Pentium®

Processor

Source: Intel

Presenter

Presentation Notes

With each processor generation, Intel doubled the MIPS capability. Amazingly, this curve obeys Gordon’s prediction of exponential cost (reduction) & the Law of Ideality. Exponential growth and cost-reduction – powerful Moore’s curves that have created a tremendous force moving the industry forward. The result has been nothing short of a quiet revolution… The ideal final result formulation works as a powerful means to dispose of mental inertia. Switching from “that’s impossible” to “it works” helps to overcome the fear of the unusual, or daring solutions. The idea is to free our minds up to be creative. The IFR acts as a goal and a guide to the designer, preventing him from straying from the superior-solution path. Straying into parts of the "solution domain" that are removed from the IFR, means accepting inferior or "patch-work" solutions. The ideal solution is more powerful than all other conceivable or yet unimaginable solutions. By accepting the IFR as the goal, the designer/inventor becomes "attached" to the best possible avenue of solution, or solution path.


The Main postulate of TRIZ • Evolution of successful technologies is governed

by certain laws.• This means that the transition…

…is predetermined.

Technology A

Technology B

Technology C

These are verified laws, tools and trends of engineering system evolution, not opinion, & have been validated as statistically significant


An Example of a Law of Evolution

Stage of evolution A

Stage of evolution B

Stage of evolution C

Presenter

Presentation Notes

We can draw an analogy between the use of the laws of TRIZ and the laws of mechanics. In Mechanics, if the position of a moving object is known at a certain moment in time, its forthcoming positions can be found by solving the corresponding equations of motion. Similarly, the laws of evolution in TRIZ serve as “soft equations”. When a current system configuration is given, further configurations can be reliably “calculated”. Knowledge of laws of TRIZ allows us to anticipate the most likely next steps in evolution of any given technology. It also helps to design better systems faster, without wasting time and resources on search for solutions randomly.

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http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://binocularsmart.com/binoculars/russian-binoculars-roof-foton-10x40.jpg&imgrefurl=http://binocularsmart.com/binoculars.shtml&h=217&w=300&sz=18&tbnid=o0Lnj5tyyhMWrM:&tbnh=80&tbnw=111&hl=en&start=6&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dbinoculars%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26rls%3DGGLD,GGLD:2005-20,GGLD:en%26sa%3DN


Typical System vs. Consumer Trend

ProductBased

Economy

ServiceBased

Economy

ExperienceBased

Economy

CommodityBased

Economy

TransformationBased

Economy

Current System

1 2 3 4 5

Competitive Pressure moves this way

Evolution of a Break-Through/Next Generation System move this way

Confidential


General Principles of an Evolutionary Trend

INCREASING BENEFITS

INCREASING TECHNICAL CHALLENGE, RISK, etc

(TIME)

Immobile Single Joint Multiple Joint Liquid Gas FieldCompletelyflexible


• There are Universal Principles & Trends of Evolution leading toward the “peak value”

– Can be used to predict “next big thing”

• Best innovations resolve conflicts (compromise-free)

• There are Universal Principles for resolving conflicts

Key Concepts

Integrated System Level Solution: Embedded Silicon

within Rigid Core with Heat-pipe Technology

By Richard Platt(Former) Technology Development Program Manager Server Board &

System Technology


Why the Need for this Concept (1999)?Inventor’s Comment: Intel has many researchers,

engineers & Intel Fellows working on evolving the technologies for the silicon device and component level. However I did not see the same amount and level of investment of R&D resources being allocated at the board or system level.

– This is especially of concern to the inventor since coming to understand TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) that evolving the technology in the super-system direction is just as an important technology vector to pursue as the sub-system level (where the primary focus is occurring within Intel today[1999]).

This concept is one of many potential concepts that attempts to address evolvement of the technology to the super-system. (Hopefully to block our competitors from potentially outmaneuvering Intel in the marketplace.)

http://epik-pcs.fm.ith.intel.com/sites/rd-innovation/TRIZ-CoP/default.aspx


Technology Trends Driving the Market (1999)

#1 TREND: The Increasing # of I/O in IA; according to Moore’s Law* states that # of transistors doubles on silicon devices every 18-24 months.

– This trend is driving the need for a enabling technologies to be developed for the individual device, (i.e. wafer level), as well as at the component level, board level and system levels to address the scaling challenges.

– INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS: • Increasing complexity & decrease in size vs. Thermal management

and Manufacturability – [(I): Device Complexity vs. (W): Use of energy by stationary Object].– And/Or combinations– [(I): Area of Stationary Object vs. (W): Object Generated Harmful Factors].

‘Moore’s Law’ correlates to the ‘Law of Ideality’ in TRIZ; Law of Ideality = All engineering systems, evolve over time, providing greater performance, functionality and benefit at lower cost and have less detrimental aspects as a part of their design and manufacture.


Technology Trends Driving the Market (1999)

#2 TREND: With the increase in the # of I/O in IA; there are greater demands for more power for supporting the devices, especially in the Server and Desktop product spaces (inventor’s background), as well as in the mobile and networking product spaces.– INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS:

• Increase in speed vs. Increased need to dissipate thermal energy– [(I): Speed vs. (W): Temperature]

• Increase in thermal energy dissipation vs. small volumetric area. – [(I): Use of energy by a Stationary Object vs. (W): Area of Stationary Object]

#3 TREND: With the increase in the # of I/O in IA; the pitch of I/O balls both from die-to-package and package-to-board is shrinking– INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS:

• Decrease in size vs. Manufacturability– [(I): Area of Stationary Object vs. (W): Manufacturing Precision or Ease of

Manufacture]. – [(I): Quantity of a substance vs. (W): Ease of Manufacture or Manufacturing

Precision]


Silicon Device (Processor)

Thermal conductive Adhesive/Grease

Rigid Core– Al ?

Cu thermal transfer plate

Conductive Adhesive

MLB: Multi-Layer Board

Silicon Device (Processor)

Silver filled Resin or Epoxy

Embedded Thermal Heat-pipe

Silicon device

Double-Sided Silicon Devices-In-Board (DSSDIB) – Embedded processors

(current component designs using gold bumps or gold wire) in Imprinted Circuit Boards w/ rigid cores.

µ-Via (4-6mil buried & blind)

Bump contact pads

Intel Patent Holder: Richard PlattTechnology Development

Intel Program Manager

Std Via (10mil drill/ 13mil fin)

Standard trace for routing on outer layer


Double-Sided Silicon Devices-In-Board (DSSDIB)1. The processor is embedded w/in the PCB through the machining/molding process of

the rigid core and then imprinting the underside of the multi layer substrate to create a routing cavity.

2. Silver filled epoxy is used on the top side of the component between the rigid core material lining, (likely nickel plated copper for the lining due to thermal transfer capabilities and aluminum for the rigid core).

3. The bottom of the imprinted cavity with the trace connections and the metal contact pads come in contact with the gold bumps of the silicon device is coated with a electrically conductive adhesive.

3. The heat-pipe running through the rigid core, essentially acts as a radiator close to the processor thermally heat-sinking the thermal energy into the liquid w/in the heat-pipe. Then through osmotic process of the thermal heat-pipe itself it transfers the heated liquid/gas to an external cooling source, (i.e. fan) that vents the thermal energy out of the system. This technology is already in use on laptops today.

4. This approach integrates all those technologies together along w/ the rigid core which provides additional rigidity and strength to already heavy and dense PCBs. The rigid core acts as stabilizer.

5. Traces (I/O), can then route out on the same layer as where the ball pads connect, and then using μ-vias the design engineer can then route to the primary side, (top surface), of the PCB.

6. Instead of needing the package to manage the environment, now the PCB can be the protective package around the silicon.

7. Cost savings are significant w/ integrating the silicon directly into the substrate &/or the rigid core.

8. The rigid core is coated w/ a non-conductive film to prevent electrical shorts.9. Opportunity to do side access fiber optics integrated into silicon and edge of substrate.

(not shown).


Rigid Core2 Plates A & B > Aligned with Pins > R.C. Through Holes Drilled or molded

> Heat Pipe Cavity > Retainer Rails > Silicon Device Cavity

Through Holes Drilled intoRigid Core

Alignment Pins

Silicon Cavity

Heat Pipe Cavity

Note: NOT TO SCALE -- R.C. Thickness TBDCutaway Drawing Set—Not a manufacturing Flow!

Retainer Rails


Embedded ComponentsCu Thermal Plate > Silver Epoxy > Silicon Device

Silicon Device(Gold Bumped)

Cu Thermal

Silver Epoxy


High Density Interconnect Printed Circuit Board (HDI PCB)

PCB Constructed > PCB mounted to respective half of Rigid Core via alignmentPins and PCB registration holes Note: Surface Mount Components Only (includes I/O Connectors)

Bare HDI Foil PCB mounts toRigid Core


Final AssemblyAll Components are S.M.T. > Heat Pipe & Condenser > Side A/B Joined

S.M. I/O Connectors

Side A/B Join(Registration Apparatus TBD)

S.M. Connectors w/Attachment into R.C.

Heat Pipe / Condenser Assembled into core


Final Assembled UnitEnhanced electrical performanceEfficient thermal solutionIncreased reliabilityLow ProfileLowest Total Cost product

Total Solution space = 70% Mfg & Assy process technologies + 30% product technology


Risk Assessment of Technology EffortTechnology Evaluation

Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments

Ease of Manufacturability

Specialty Manufacturing Process Yes = 1; No = 10 1 1

need to bring in New Processes, such as HDI-PCB capability, rigid core technology w/ integrated heat pipes, all SMT solutions for connectors would need to be developed. (I have new IP I am generating for that.)

Materials stage: lab, prototype, development or production?

lab = 1, prototype = 3, development = 5, production = 7 1 1

would need to develop a prototype line 1st in house to get the capability up and determine what the costs and issues would be to develop into a HVM line.

Is material specialty or commodity? specialty = 5, commodity =

10 1 10

HDI is standard technology readily available today. Aluminum rigid core can be done outside --outsourced in the short term.

Practical (least amount of effort for gain achieved)

Comaparitive against one project versus another. Multiplier of other metrics w/in the technology evaluation criteria 1 1

Do not personnaly know of any other approach that attempts a higher level of integration with the exception of Sun and IBM as comparitive systems

known vendor - sole supplierVendor known yes = 10, no = 5. Sole supplier = 5, multiple suppliers = 10 1 10

Grohmann Engineering

licensing or legal issues

Intel IP Y = 10; N = 1. Have to x-license from someone else = 5 Ability to x-license to others = 10 1 20

IDF's already submitted last year

cost POR cost = 5, more than POR cost = 1, less than POR cost = 10 1 10

Total system cost would be lower and enables a more efficient thermal x-fer mechanism than what is used today. No need to entertain refrigeration as a solution

availability of engineering know-how (internal /external / none availale) internal = 10, external = 5,

none available = 0 1 5

Grohmann Engineering, Fraunhofer Insititute and others have seen this and believe that it is a viable approach with the manufacturing capabilities that exist today.

integration w/ VFY = 10, No = 5 1 10

This would have to be a path pursued for a FOF model

R&D resources available (internal/external/none available)

internal = 10, external = 5, none available = 0 1 0

Extremely controversial approach, and requires an new perspective on architecture and business model

Is it disruptive technology? (Will this provide signifcant competitive advantage/compelling value add to feature set)

Characteristics of Disruptive Technology are: simpler, cheaper & lower perfoming. Yes = 1; No = 0, Generally promise lower margins, not higher profits. Yes = 1; No = 0, Intel's main customer's can't use the technology and don't want it Yes = 1; No = 0, 5 X 5 25

IDF submitted Yes = 10; No = 1 1 10


Technology Evaluation Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments

Unit Cost Impact

No cost benefit to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 1 Potential cost reduction to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 5 Clear cost benefit to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 10 1 10

Implication to Business Model

Technology dramtically changes the way Intel does business or introduces more business risk = 1 Manageable risks and changes to business model = 5 Technology leverage or improves business model or represetns low / mitigateable business risk =10 1 1

Return on Investment

Technology does not demonstrate a return on investment = 1 Technology demonstrates a potential return on investment = 5 Technology demonstrates a clear return on investment = 10

Unknown. Would need a full in depth finance analyst to investigate this. No resources currently allocated to support

Reasonable business risk

Yes = 10; No = 1 1 10

Yes, since you would develop this in-house and only select one of your customersw to work with on this to develop the prototypes to prove out the business model and the technology. Business model now moves to entire PCB being delivered to OEM, end-user,

Applicability

Technology is limited to 1 or 2 products and/or market segments = 1 ; Technology can be applied across market segments but is limited to either cpu or non cpu.= 5 Technology can be applied across market segments and cpu and non cpu.= 10 1 10

Scaleability

Technology is limited to 1 generation = 1 ; Technology can be applied across multiple generations but limited segments = 5 ; Technology can be applied across multiple generations and segments = 10 1 10

I/P control

Intel has very little control of I/P = 1 Intel will share technology I/P with supplier = 5 Intel owns I/P = 10 1 10


Technology maturity/ Time to development

Technology will take 3 to 5 years to develop = 1 Technology will take 2 to 4 years to develop = 5 Technology will take 1 to 3 years to develop = 10 1 1

Potential benefit

Technology will have limited benefit and is really an extension of existing technology =1 Technology will provide performance or cost benefit = 5 Technology will provide performance and cost benefit = 10 1 10

Risk

Technology may have significant reliable issues. Will require significant effort and >4 years develop = 1 Technology may have some reliable issues. Will require moderate effort and 2 to 4 years to develop = 5 Technology may has no apparent reliable 1 1

52

Technology Evaluation Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments


Now doing it Faster

Using a software tool can speed up the process, instead of hours or days, now you can do it in minutes


Backward Citations View Patent Details Patent Forward

Citations View Patent Details

5793611Cooling device with thermally separated electronic parts on a monolithic substrate

6292366 7294529 Method for embedding a component in a base

5355942 Cooling multi-chip modules using embedded heat pipes

Printed circuit board with embedded

integrated circuit

7286359 Use of thermally conductive vias to extract heat from microelectronic chips and method of manufacturing

5306866 Module for electronic package 7176382 Electrical circuit board and method for making the same

5199165Heat pipe-electrical interconnect integration method for chip modules

7165321 Method for manufacturing printed wiring board with embedded electric device

4774630Apparatus for mounting a semiconductor chip and making electrical connections thereto

6991966 Method for embedding a component in a base and forming a contact

4739443 Thermally conductive module 6788537 Heat pipe circuit board

4734315 Low power circuitry components6680441 Printed wiring board with embedded electric

device and method for manufacturing printed wiring board with embedded electric device

4631636High density packaging technique for electronic systems

6490159 Electrical circuit board and method for making the same

4327399 Heat pipe cooling arrangement for integrated circuit chips

(Quick) Patent Strength Analysis

Original Patent

12 more patents reference this patent

http://www.metricsgroup.com/patentcitations/secure/hsrch_rslt.cfm?patn_id=5793611&cfid=1151028&cftoken=58365846

http://www.metricsgroup.com/patentcitations/secure/hsrch_dtl.cfm?patn_id=5793611&base=6292366&cfid=1151028&cftoken=58365846



































Evolutionary Potential

0 1 2 3 4 5X

Customer Expectation

Repeat for other trends…

Dynamisation

Dimensionality

etc

Used by Permission DL Mann

“Blue” area (trend potential), can be used to suggest R&D and TD direction as well as a focused brainstorming tool on current problems, instead of opinion based decision making.


Evolutionary Potential….

…can be performed

- for a specific system- for a component within a system

- for a process-

for a whole company- for an industry



Sub System A

System

Evolutionary Potential Hierarchy

Sub System B Sub System C Sub System D etc

X

Y


Blue plot area is the potential, unexplored and undefined, opportunity to exploit and evolve the system to the next TRUE Evolutionary / Revolutionary step.


Evolutionary Plot For PC (Laptop):

Confidential


012345

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

012345

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Twin Focus of Business Trends:

Internal Organization External Market


Current Business Model Maturity

Customer Expectation

Customer Purchase FocusProcess Thinking

System Robustness

MBP(Sim)

MBP(Var)

MBP(IncDiff)

Segmentation

Sense Interaction

TransparencyBoundary Breakdown

Controllability

Needs Hierarchy

Human Involvement

Interaction

Listening

Market Research

DynamizationVertical/Horizontal

Benchmarking the MasterFoods business model against best businesspractice from a consumer-facing perspective:

MasterFoods

Iams


Competitor’s Our Product or Service Our Competitive AdvantageProduct or Service

+

“Global Benchmarking”

Analysis can also can be conducted along the lines of the Evolution of Business, IT & Software best practices



Examples: Business Evolutionary Trends

Demographics Findographics Psychographics Autopoeisis

Trial and Error Process Mapping Multiple Processes Process of Processes


Overall Motel

Front Desk House-KeepingBack OfficeGuest Services

Hierarchical Breakdown:


Evolutionary Plots of the business, technology, processes, products and services creates an Innovation Roadmap for the Business Unit


Infancy Rapid growth Maturity

Decline

Ben

efit-

to-c

ost

Time

Technology Innovation: S-curve

Make it work

Maximize efficiency

Minimize cost

Prove idea

Next-generation

Presenter

Presentation Notes


Special Case: System Revival

Possible reasons:• New technology/material emerging• New situation


Example: History of Armor

Defense effectiveness

Time

Police Anti-riot Attire


Example: History of the Shield

Defense effectiveness

Time


Example: Sailing ShipsEffectiveness (distance,

speed, capacity)

Time

http://www.downtheroad.org/southamerica/images/New_Folder8/DSC00150.JPG


1st Stage of the S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations

Indicators

New system, not yet on market.Components from other systems, rather than custom components.Integrates with supersystem elements. The new system must change or adapt to the supersystem.Consumes resources not intended for it.Number and magnitude of system modifications increase and then decrease almost to zero (like Darwin's Law – only the strongest systems win).System integrates with leading alternative systems.

RecommendationsOne should work with existing infrastructure and resources.It makes sense to integrate the ES with systems that are leading at the moment.Main efforts should be concentrated on identifying and eliminating bottlenecks that prevent the system from entering the market.A forecast for supersystem development is required for systems that are in the 1st stage of evolution.Profound changes in system composition and in composition of its components (up to switching to another principle of operation) are admissible. It makes sense to develop the system with the intention of using it in one specific field - where the ratio of its advantages and disadvantages is the most acceptable.It is necessary to analyze physical and supersystem limitations of development with the aim of finding out the degree of promise of an ES.


2nd Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations

IndicatorsHas not reached its development limits.There are a number of potential niches.Spreads to many areas.Differentiation among different system types grows.Uses existing supporting systems.Linear relationship between improvements made and resources required.Differences between system generations increases, then decreases almost to zero.System begins to consume resources customized for it.

RecommendationsIt makes sense to solve problems by adapting the system to new fields of application.It is possible to focus on compromises and solutions aimed at limiting disadvantages, without eliminating them entirely.It is possible to utilize specially adapted resources of the supersystem.Moderate-degree changes should be introduced to the system design and the design of system components (without changing their principles of operation).


3rd Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations

IndicatorsHas reached some development limits.Development is limited by contradictions.Is used in many areas.Combines with alternative systems.Acquires new functions not correlated with the main function.A number of systems exist to support the system.Improving functionality requires a disproportionate amount of resources.System generations differ mainly by design and service functions.

RecommendationsFor the near and moderately distant future, one should be solving problems aimed at reducing costs, developing service sub-systems, and improving design.For the distant future, one should try to switch to another principle of operation for the ES or its components, which resolves contradictions hindering further development (overcoming limits).Deep trimming, integration of alternative systems, and other techniques of transition to the supersystem are highly effective.


4th Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations

Indicators

Forced out by more effective systems, which reach the 2nd stage of evolution.Supersystem changes reduce the need for the system.Supersystem changes make the existence of the system difficult – for example, resources needed by the system disappear. Continues to function only in highly specialized fields.Profitability decreases.Moves into the category of souvenirs, decorative objects, antiques, and so on. Begins to be used for entertainment; moves to the category of toys. Moves to the category of sports apparatus.

Recommendations

For the near future, one should be solving problems aimed at reducing costs, developing service subsystems, and improve design.For the moderately distant future, one should look for fields in which the system would still remain competitive.For the distant future, one should try to switch to another principle of operation (for the ES or its components) which resolves contradictions hindering further development (limits overcoming).Deep trimming, integration of alternative systems, and other techniques of transition to the supersystem are highly effective.


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