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• パナソニック株式会社様向け提案書 Future Opportunities in EV Charging EV 充電インフラの事業機会

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Table of Contents

Current Status and future forecast of EV market

EV charging technology trend

Major charging models and models under development

-Battery Swapping

-Vehicle 2 Home

-Fast Charging

-Wireless Charging

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Battery Eco-system

Current status and future forecast of EV market

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Electric Vehicles Sold in the last decade Over 2.1 million electric vehicles were sold in 2018 which China crossing a million mark

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2018. Source: Frost & Sullivan

Electric Vehicle Outlook: Historic EV Sales, Global, 2007-2018

% Penetration in Passenger car

market

100 468 1,960 6,763 51,325 134,406

211,765 324,751

512,534

779,411

1,242,565

2,107,228

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

368.0% 245.1% 658.1% 161.9% 57.6% 53.4% 57.8% 52.1% 59.4% 318.8% 69.6%

Over 8 years to reach one million EVs collectively 2.3% 4X growth

0.7%

1.0%

1.5%

2,2M Draft

2019

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Electric Vehicle Outlook: Market Outlook, Global, 2019 (until August)

Europe 23.2%

Asia-Pacific 59.9%

Americas 16.7%

Africa & ME

0.2%

1,455,655 EVs sold in 2019

295 (189 BEV & 106 PHEV)

Models for Sale

~6,846,848 Total EV Car Parc

>275,000 Fast Charging Points

BEV 74.1%

PHEV 25.9%

BEV PHEV

209 176

98 88 85 76 61 58 57 56

Tesla BYD BAIC BMW Group Hyundai-Kia VW Group Nissan Geely SAIC GM

809

204 67 55 42 38 36 30 26 25

China USA Germany Norway France UK Canada Japan Netherlands Sweden

Over 2.8 million electric vehicles are likely to be sold by end of 2019 with

China leading the market with over 55% market share. EV Market Outlook 2019 (until August YTD) – Global

Electric Vehicle Outlook: EV Sales Split by Country, Top 10, (until August) 2019

Electric Vehicle Outlook: EV Sales Split by Top OEMs, (until August) 2019

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2018. Source: Frost & Sullivan

Sale

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Sale

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Total xEV Market: Sales Forecast of Hybrid And Electric Vehicles, Global, 2015–2025

Global Uptake of xEV – 2015 to 2025 In an optimistic scenario, xEVs are likely to account for 35-40% of the total passenger vehicle sales by 2025 with an

estimated volume of 40 million

Source: Frost & Sullivan

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

BEV PHEV FHEV MHEV

Hybrid Vehicles Electric Vehicles

22%

27%

22%

29%

Hybrid Sales >1.5M

New energy vehicle policy showing results

Mass production of 48V HEV

Emergence of Fuel Cells

BEV – Battery Electric Vehicle PHEV – Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicle

FHEV – Full Hybrid Electric Vehicle MHEV – Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle

MHEV・FHEVも含めて4M

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Battery Eco-system

EV Charging Technology trend

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2010 2015 2020

Batt

ery

Cap

ac

it

y

PHEV

BEV 20-30kWh 30-80kWh +90kWh

5-10 kWh 10-20kWh +20kWh

Ele

ctr

ic

Ra

ng

e

PHEV

BEV Up to 90 miles 150-250 miles +270 miles

Up to 30 miles 30-60 miles +60 miles

DC Charging

Capacity Up to 50kW Up to 150kW Up to 350kW

Strategic Analysis of Charging of Electrified Vehicles: Battery Capacity and Range Roadmap, Global, 2010–2020

Battery Capacity Range and Impact on Charging Capacity The trend is moving towards higher battery capacities over 60kWh to increase the range of an electric vehicle up to 200 miles on

a single charge.


Time Taken to

Charge PHEV

Time Taken to

Charge BEV

~10-20 minutes

~40-60 minutes

~7-13 minutes

~20-55 minutes

~<5 minutes

~<15 minutes

Key Takeaway

Moving forward most of the models will have bigger battery packs to extend their e-range. Therefore 50-150 kW chargers can’t

compensate the charging times, it will become evident to adopt 350kW+ DC charging capable models and infrastructure

EV Spec Trend

NISSAN LEAF 62kwh 458㎞(280mile)

BMW I-NEXT

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Vehicle –side Charging Technology Roadmap – BEV & PHEV While BEV’s are moving towards 150kW+ DC charging OEM’s will start introduction 50kW+ DC charging on

their PHEV models by 2018/19

11 kW (Possible post 2020) 7.4 kW (BMW, NA and Japanese OEM’s)

3.6 kW (German OEM’s – First wave of application)

Premium Brands to get 50 kW DC Charging

6.6-7.4 kW 3-3.7 kW

2010 2015 2020 2025

PH

EV

OB

C

DC

W

EV

C

OB

C

DC

W

EV

C

11 kW (BMW, Daimler, VW, PSA)

22 kW (VW group) Premium PHEV Models Upcoming mass market lower segment PHEV’s to still

have 3-3.7kW OBC while the majority of models to have

a 7.4kW plug

Nil

150 kW (Sports & High performance segment) VW family to introduce 150kW DC charging on PHEV’s,

while many PHEV do not require DC charging

3-3.7 kW (Mass market lower segment) 6.6-7.4 kW (Every BEV model to switch to ~7.2kW)

Long range BEV segment, 3.7kW to become obsolete

while the others are expected to hold an equal market

share of about 30% each

All BEV’s to get 50 kW DC Charging

150 kW+ (Major OEM’s and long range BEV’s)

350 kW+ (Premium OEM’s & Luxury Start-ups) While Ultra-Fast Charging is being popularized premium

models and luxury start ups move towards 350 kW

charging pushing EV’s into a league better than ICE

11 kW 7.4 kW 3.6 kW

While BEV’s focus on 350kW charging capabilities, PHEV’s are expected

to start the trend of wireless charging with

Mercedes being the first model to feature WEVC

OEM’s in Focus : BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Ford, GM,

RNA, Toyota


EV

NISSAN LEAF STD: 3kw MOP:6kw(￥110k)

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OBC : 2025 Fact Sheet By 2025, about 214 models to feature a 7.4kW on-board charger closely followed by 11kW with 68 models

11kW, 16.1%

22kW, 14.6%

43kW, 0.9%

3.7kW, 8.9%

7.4kW, 59.4%

Percentage Split by 2025

OEM Strategy

OEM’s are will do away with

3.7kW OBC for all BEV models

while PHEV’s could be limited

to 11kW for premium models

and 7.4kW for others

Number Of Models

214 models on 7.4kW

41 models on 22kW

68 models on 11kW

24 models on 3.7kW

Technology Roadmap

6.6-7.4 kW

3-3.7 kW

2015 2020 2025

BE

V

PH

EV

6.6-7.4 kW

3-3.7 kW 6.6-7.4 kW

11 kW

22 kW

43kW

11 kW

22 kW

Premium (vs) Mass Market Models Strategy

• Premium models such as BMW, Daimler, Volkswagen group etc

will adopt 11/22 kW OBC’s on their upcoming PHEV models.

• Whereas on BEV, High performance & luxury makers such as

BMW, Damiler, VW group along with mass market OEM’s are

expected to adopt 11/22kW OBC. Start-ups such as Lucid,

Rimac, Faraday Future and premium OEM’s with long range

BEV’s are set feature a 22kW OBC by 2020.

Strategic Analysis of Charging of Electrified Vehicles: OBC 2025 FactSheet, Global, 2025


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Electric Charging Roadmap – OEM EV WEVC Strategy American OEM’s are the first to adopt 11kW wireless charging systems post 2020 while European OEM’s are choosing PHEV’s

are their first choice of application

BMW

Daimler

GM

Toyota

VW

7.4 kW (iSeries PHEV)

3.6 kW (5 series PHEV – First application)

3.6 kW (S class – First Application, followed by other models)

Premium Brands to get 7.4 kW WEVC

11 kW (Future GM Models)

7.4 kW (A variant of WEVC capability PHEV)

3.6 kW (First Application on Audi models)

BMW

Daimler

GM

Ford

RNA

7.4 kW (Rolls-Royce BEV)

3.6 kW (i3)

7.4 kW WEVC (EQ based)

3.6 kW (Model E)

7.4 kW (Chevy Bolt)

11 kW (Future GM Models)

11 kW (Leaf – Variant level Introduction)

2017 2020 2025

BE

V

PH

EV


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Dealership, 4%

Gas Station, 2%

Hotel/Lodging, 23%

Parking Garage, 8%

Recreation/outdoor, 3%

Residential, 2% Restaurant,

school uni, 2%

Shopping center, 13%

Store/Retail, 6%

Train station, 1%

Workplace, 8%

Other, 29%

Charging Station Installation by Location, 2018

Hotels and Shopping

centres should be

first target for

Industry players

Strategic Locations

EV Charging Installation by Owner Type Charging stations will be installed mainly in location which will be a point of interest for users and tend to spend more than an hour.

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Battery Eco-system

Major Charging models and models under development

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Battery Swapping Tesla’s automatic battery swapping business model is expected to be adopted in the next 2-3 years

Drive into a Tesla Supercharging Station

Charge the battery (80%) free of charge in

20 minutes and drive away

Swap the battery with a Fully-charged battery pack

Drive back to the swap station to collect the old battery after it

is 100% charged.

Retain the battery pack; however, Tesla submits a bill with the

difference in value of the battery pack depending

on its age.

Pay a service fee of $60–$80 (depending on the local rates)

for 100% charge of the battery

Scenario 2 • Tesla’s patented battery swapping

station allows a swap in under 2 minutes.

• Battery swapping can reduce the purchase cost which will increase sales.

Each station has to maintain 50 battery

packs

The company runs the risk of loss if the business model fails; however, it will not affect the overall business

Scenario 1

Note: The battery swapping stations will be installed in the current supercharger network locations, and the investment cost will be

approximately $500,000 per station.

Future Opportunities in EV Charging: Battery Swapping, Global, 2019-2030


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Battery Swapping Out-of-the-box business models allow users to pay only for the amount of battery consumed with the

integration of the latest battery chemistry –Tank Two-

Tanktwo EV charging station

Electricity Utilities

Online Payment

Tanktwo cloud system

Electric Vehicle

Transfer third party online transaction to support different payment methods

Verification of the string cell identification user request with final

swap pricing

Future Opportunities in EV Charging: Battery Swapping—TankTwo String Cells, Global, 2019-2030


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Vehicle 2 Home (continued) Energy and Data Flow Diagram

Smart Meter DSO

the Distributed System Operator

EV Renewable Energy Systems

Household Loads

Energy

Data

Home and Grid

Home Energy Management System

Future Opportunities in EV Charging: Vehicle 2 Home, Global, 2019-2030

Source: Garcia et al., Frost & Sullivan

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Vehicle 2 Home Integration with smart metering will unlock significant opportunities

Key Characteristic Features of the V2H

System

No contractual obligation with the utilities promoting

electricity pricing optimization while minimizing the operating cost of

vehicle.

The integration of smart meter with bi-directional charging gives flexibility to customers to respond to fluctuating electricity pricings.

The EV is charged during times of low demand and low rate while the stored power from the vehicle is used to power the house

when there is peak demand. Such a system is effective in times of power blackout and

emergency situations. This results in significant savings in energy bills.

The V2H model encourages the optimal utilization of renewable energy. House owners can utilize the stored electricity from EVs to keep the house powered during the night and sell the excess electricity from renewable resources

providing extra incentive.

Future Opportunities in EV Charging: Vehicle 2 Home, Global, 2019-2030


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Fast Charging Requirements and Path to Growth

Requirements

Path to Faster Charging

Stakeholders Involved

Frost & Sullivan analysis reveals that customers are in favor of EVs that go from 0% to 100% state of charge within five minutes, and those that can travel at least 160 km on a single charge.

The charging time is dependent on the state of charge, total energy capacity of the battery, battery type, and type of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). A critical element in fast EVSE is safety and efficiency during power conversion, which depends on an efficient opt coupler and charging station topology.

Future Opportunities in EV Charging: Fast Charging, Global, 2019-2030


• National and regional government • OEM/ Car manufacturers • Electricity producers • Electricity grid operators • Oil companies • Infrastructure providers

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Inductive (or) Wireless Charging Majority of inductive charging applications are focused on stationary charging features as opposed to

dynamic charging

Image Source: Pixabay

Inductive charging is likely to be popular in both Europe and the US.

However, public charging infrastructure will be predominant in

Europe. Inductive charging in stationary applications preferred until 2020 and dynamic charging

adopted post 2020.

There are three associations (SAE, IEC, and ISO) working on the development of inductive charging standards. However, the lack of coordination between associations is obstructing OEMs to introduce inductive charging in electric vehicles.

Regional developments of inductive charging technology is mainly based on initiatives from local automakers and technology developers. Audi, VW, BMW and Daimler have adopted the technology in Europe, Nissan, Toyota and Honda in Japan, and GM in the US.

Over 90% of inductive charging technology developers are focusing on stationary applications with a power output up to 3.6kW mainly for PHEVs. Post 2018, inductive charging application up to 7kW will be introduced mainly for pure electric vehicles.

IEC 61890 and SAE J2954 are working towards harmonizing inductive charging globally by standardizing the transmitter configuration, receiver location on the vehicle, communication protocol, and operating frequency.

Future Opportunities in EV Charging: Inductive (or) Wireless Charging, Global, 2019-2030


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Inductive (or) Wireless Charging (continued)

Qualcomm, Witricity and ZTE are the key suppliers of the wireless technology, further co-development and

partnership will help in implementation of their technology Future Opportunities In EV Charging: Wireless Charger Supplier Benchmarking, Global, 2019

Supplier

Wireless Passenger Car Charging Wireless Bus/Public Transport

Charging

Partnership 3-3.7 kW 6.6-7.4kW 11-22kW 50kW+

University of Auckland, FIA Formula E, Nichicon

SEV (Germany)

Hella kGaA

Hueck & Co

TDK, IHI

China State Grid


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The charging plate housing the primary coil is lowered to transfer energy using the magnetic induction principle with the plate situated on the charging points at the bus stop on the road.

Wireless Communication System Primary Pad or

Coil

Secondary Pad or Coil

Charging Unit

Battery Cells

Battery Cells

Future Opportunities In EV Charging: Inductive or Wireless Charging, Global, 2019

Milton Keynes Inductive Charging Case Study

Inductive (or) Wireless Charging (continued)

Key Takeaway: (I) Trickle charging of the electric buses overnight for an approximate time of 6 hours at 20 kW minimum charge capacity ensures elimination of the traditional model of commissioning a substation at the bus depot.

(ii) The presence of wireless chargers in bus stops reduces the range anxiety as the buses get charged during embarking and disembarking of passengers. This also ensures lesser charging requirements when the vehicle is not in use.

(iii) Trial runs have shown that this initiative can remove nearly 5 tons of harmful emissions from Milton Keynes every year. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Wireless (or) Inductive Charging Supplier—ElectRoad On-ride EV recharging through Inductive Technology under the pavement combats cost, weight, and anxiety

issues

Key Partnerships with ElectRoad for Wireless Charging Infrastructure

Supporting Services 2025-2030 Vision - Partnership

Business Partnership Biomedix Incubator Ltd. has plans of acquiring ElectRoad. ElectRoad and Biomedix Incubator Ltd. signed a strategic agreement with Dan Bus Company, which will invest up to $2.2 million for public transport electrification.

Wireless Charging Technology

ElectRoad bagged a $120,000 investment from the Israeli government to test the technology on a 1/2 mile route in Tel Aviv. Future plans include a 11-mile path implemented between the city of Eilat and the Ramon International Airport.

Image Source : Wikipedia

Company Profile: ElectRoad is an eMobility start up from Israel, primarily focused on charging EVs from electrified roads through its proprietary Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer technology.

Recognition: 2017- Awarded by Katerva in the Global Transportation Category.

Funding: Dan Public Transportation Co Ltd Horizon 2020 ,Capital Nature

Future Opportunities In EV Charging: Inductive or Wireless Charging, Global, 2019

Source: ElectRoad, Frost & Sullivan

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Ease Of Operation, Speed, Pricing, and Commonality: Uptake in charging solutions play a key role in eliminating the anxiety of availability of charging infrastructure for EV users. Also, the ease of operation, speed of charging, pricing, and support for a variety of EVs are expected to be crucial in ensuring the solution succeeds on a mass scale. Digital support for charging solutions will be a value addition for consumers as well.

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1 The Future of EV and ICE: EV innovation and Global sales volume expected to continue to grow, but china's trend as a driving force needs attention. And ICE will continue to survive for the time being.

Partnerships/Collaborations: Forming partnerships or collaborating with end supplier utilities, technology solution providers, or digital platform providers to maximize the uniqueness and value add quotient will play a key role in shaping the charging solutions industry.

The Last Word


powerpoint presentation...rimac, faraday future and premium oem’s with long range bev’s are set...

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