psg woodhill junie/june 2014€¦ · junie/june 2014 affiliates of the psg konsult group are...

PSG WOODHILL JUNIE/JUNE 2014

Affiliates of the PSG Konsult Group are authorised financial services providers

2014 – DIE JAAR SOVER

In ons Desember/Januarie uitgawe van ons nuusbrief het ons die 2013 jaar wat

was en sommige van die faktore wat die ekonomie en beurs geraak het,

bespreek. Dit is nou ses maande later en ons wil graag kyk wat die afgelope

halfjaar gebeur het, asook wat gebeur het met sekere aandeelkeuses wat ons

gemaak het.

Januarie

Ons het die nuwe jaar met bietjie onsekerheid ingegaan nadat die

Johannesburg Effektebeurs ‘n aggressiewe lopie van 2 270 punte gehad het in

Desember. Die beurs open in Januarie op 46 590 met skeptiese vooruitsigte vir

die jaar wat voorlê. Die beurs het teruggetrek in hierdie maand soos ons

verwag het en sluit af op 45 132 punte. Ons aandeelkeuse vir die maand was

Sasol wat ons rondom R 520 per aandeel ingekoop het. Teen einde Mei se

pryse staan dit op R 596 per aandeel wat ons los met ‘n 14.62% groei tot

dusver.

Februarie

Die maand van rooi rose en sjokolades was omtrent spesiaal vir die beleggers

wat in die begin van Februarie hul kapitaal belê het in die Top40 aandele. Die

Top40-indeks het van 40 432 punte versterk na 42 772 punte. Ons

aandeelkeuse vir die maand was Woolworths, wat ons aangekoop het rondom

die R 60 vlak. As ons dit vergelyk die huidige pryse, wys dit groei van meer as

25% vir die tydperk. Aan die einde van Februarie sluit die JEB op 47 329.

Maart

Pinnacle Holdings – Ek glo nie ek hoef meer as dit te sê om ‘n koue rilling langs

enige van hul aandeelhouers se rugstring af te jaag nie. Op 25 Maart kondig

Pinnacle aan dat een van hul direkteure, Mnr Tshivase, gearresteer is oor hy,

volgens aantuigings probeer het om ‘n lid van die Suid-Afrikaanse polisiediens

om te koop met die doel om ‘n staatskontrak te wen vir die maatskappy. Na

die aankondiging van die insident, het Pinnacle se aandeelprys van R 20.06

geval na R 11.45 in slegs twee dae; sedertdien is dit nog altyd onder druk. Ons

aandeelkeuse vir die maand was Standard Bank – ons het die aandeel gekoop

rondom R 122 per aandeel. Die huidige pryse draai rondom R 144 per aandeel,

wat groei van 15.6% in slegs drie maande beteken. Die JEB sluit Maart af op

47 771 punte.

INHOUD

1. 2014 – Die jaar sover 2. How familiarity breeds comfort 3. PSG Wealth Solutions Funds – an overview (part 1)

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rondom R 122 per aandeel. Die huidige pryse draai rondom R 144 per aandeel, wat groei van

15.6% in slegs drie maande beteken. Die JEB sluit Maart af op 47 771 punte.

April

In April was almal se aandag meer gevestig op die plakkate teen die lamppale as op die mark.

Dit was ‘n relatiewe stil maand weens die groot hoeveelheid onsekerheid rondom die politiese

welstand in Suid-Afrika en slegs twee weke om besigheid te doen as gevolg van al die

vakansiedae. Sonder enige groot verwagtinge het die beurs steeds 765 punte gedurende die

maand verstewig tot 48 870 punte.

Mei

Na die verkiesing en al die vakansie dae wat in Mei afgehandel was, kon mens uiteindelik weer

konsentreer op dit wat geld maak en nie geld kos nie. Ons aandeelkeuses vir die maand was

DBXUS en Coronation Fund Managers wat ons rondom R 18.58 en R 93.50 onderskeidelik

gekoop het. Huidiglik verhandel hierdie aandele teen ‘n winspersentasie van 4.8% en 4.5% vir

minder as ‘n maand. Verder was dit ‘n opwindende maand waar die JEB vir die eerste keer bo

50 000 punte gesluit het. Met die JEB wat so hoog is, maak dit dinge regtig moeilik vir nuwe

beleggers en laat dit mens regtig wonder of die stelling ‘sell in May and go away’ hierdie jaar van

toepassing gaan wees…

Junie en vooruitsigte

Daar is baie gemengde gevoelens as dit kom by die vooruitsigte vir die ses maande wat kom. Ons

kristalbal is buite werking maar is vas oortuig dat dit baie uitdagend gaan wees. Vrae kom na

vore soos hoe lank ons ekonomie nog plaaslike stakings kan dra; hoeveel keer kan Gill Marcus en

haar span die rentekoerse dieselfde hou? Al wat ons kan doen is om elke dag te vat soos dit

kom, goeie aandeelkeuses maak soos die afgelope ses maande en voort te bou op wat ons nou

het.

Dit is ook belangrik om te onthou dat as ons terugkyk na die laaste drie jaar, die mark werklik

eers begin presteer het in die laaste gedeelte van die jaar.

- One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one

person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute - William Feather

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/william_feather.html


HOW FAMILIARITY BREEDS COMFORT People are adverse to change, we stick to what we know which means that we are naturally drawn towards the familiar

and in fact, most of our decisions are underpinned by this trait. Think back to the last car you bought, the brand of

clothing you wear or the last restaurant you visited and the specific dish you ordered, chances are that you would have

stuck to the same make of car you have been driving for the last ten years, bought the same brand of clothing and gone

to same restaurant and ordered the same meal that you always do. Why? Because you know what you are going to get,

i.e. you are familiar with it and there is a low probability of being disappointed. I am not implying that there is something

wrong with having personal preferences, but I want to explore the potential pitfalls of how familiarity can breed a false

sense of comfort, especially when it comes to financial planning decisions.

Companies use advertising to create touch points with customers in order to create awareness which hopefully leads to

familiarity. As an example, when a new asset manager launches their funds to the public they spend the majority of their

time getting the message out through presentations and face-to-face meetings. The purpose of spending time on the

ground is to familiarize investors with their offering.

Only once the face-to-face marketing is done will the company launch print, television or radio campaigns. The reason

why this approach works is because you might have the best television, radio or print ads but if you are deemed

“unfamiliar” by investors or financial advisors the ad campaigns alone will not breed comfort.

Another method used to create familiarity is repetition. Some companies might not have a strong brand or value

proposition so they revert to repetition to create a sense of familiarity with customers. A good example of this is the

company that advertises their investment product during Super Rugby halftime breaks (I am referring to the one that

guarantees 19.5% return per annum). Every week we are exposed to this ad and every time we see it our brain will make

a connection to the previous times and a false sense of comfort could be created. So beware of repetition.

Your employment creates familiarity which in turn can create a false sense of comfort. It is very rare that employees who

invest all their net worth in the business they work for have it turn out to be a Google or Microsoft story, these business

unfortunately are exceptions to the rule. Remember there is a material difference between being familiar with a business

and investing in that business, these decisions need to be kept and dealt with separately.



In conclusion, I want to warn investors against the dangers of becoming comfortable just because a product or service

provider seems familiar. As humans, our brains are conditioned to spot things that seem familiar to us and our brain will

even play tricks on us to force connections which might not be there, to create a false sense of comfort. Advertisers,

product and service providers are well aware of this and use this to their advantage so beware and remain cautious, a

hint of scepticism is most welcome when it comes to your financial planning decisions.

Therefore next time when you get a warm fuzzy feeling in the bottom of your stomach after recognizing a product,

please take a minute to consider whether familiarity might be breeding a false sense of comfort.


Vir weeklikse aandeelwenke, gaan luister gerus na Derik op www.meesterplan.co.za. Die

videos is ook beskikbaar op www.youtube.com.

Ons beplan om in die volgende paar maande weer ‘n aanbieding of twee te hou, ons sal u op

hoogte hou van datums en onderwerpe.

Verder is ons beskikbaar vir enige navrae – of net om te gesels oor die markte.



The PSG Wealth Solutions Funds are PSG’s multi-

manager funds. Multi-manager funds consist of

multiple specialised funds. Each specialised fund may

invest across different sectors and markets, or have

managers investing in the same asset class, but have

different investment styles. For example, large cap

value fund versus large cap growth fund.

This theory is founded on the premise that not all

investment managers are good in all markets and that

not all managers are successful at all times. Spreading

the investment capital across different asset classes or

markets allows the investor to achieve the necessary

diversification, reducing risk without sacrificing the

return. So, instead of having one fund that is invested

across different sectors, you have one fund that is

invested across different funds.

PSG Wealth has a number of multi-manager funds,

which we will discuss in more detail over the next two

months. In this month’s newsletter, we will start off

with the more conservative to moderately

conservative funds.

The Enhanced Interest Solution

The Enhanced Interest Solution returned 5.7%, while

the average money market fund returned 5.2% for the

last 12 months to end of March 2014. The futures

market is currently pricing in further interest rate

hikes for 2014. This enables the Solution to purchase

instruments at more attractive forward rates than

those that are available to traditional money market

funds with shorter reaches within more restrictive

mandates.

The Income Solution

Over the last 12 months, the Income Solution also

delivered 5.7%, albeit at greater volatility relative to

the Enhanced Interest Solution. The benchmark (SteFI

12 month Cash Deposit Rate) returned 5.56% over the

same period. We expect the future rolling 24-month

return to be roughly 2% more than the return of

money market funds. Although the Enhanced Interest

Solution outperformed the Income Solution on a risk-

adjusted basis, the required investment horizon for

the Income Solution is at least two years while the

horizon for the Enhanced Interest Solution is one

month. It is important to remain aware that the

Income Solution is not geared towards short-term

cash flow requirements. The Enhanced Interest

Solution also does not aim to generate returns via

capital appreciation and will therefore lag alternatives

(like the Income Solution) that do.

PSG WEALTH SOLUTIONS –

AN OVERVIEW



The Preserver Solution

Over the last three years the Preserver Solution returned 11.7%. The

CPI+3% benchmark returned 8.7% and the average low equity fund

produced 9.9% over the same period. Even with the market volatility in

March, the Preserver Solution still managed to generate a return of

1.06% for the month. Although the Solution now has almost 37%

invested in equities (of which more than half is invested abroad), the

solution remains extremely well diversified across local and offshore

asset classes.

Source: PSG Wealth Quarterly Investment Update

PSG Woodhill Global House, 296 Glenwood Weg

Pretoria t 012 472 9834/5

f 086 508 4227 [email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

www.psg.co.za/woodhill

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