Market Indicators

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT

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HIGHLIGHTS 报告要点

整体市场回顾OVERALL MARKET REVIEW

SHANGHAI GRADE A OFFICE MARKET

上海甲级写字楼市场

Q-o-Q Change环比变化

Y-o-Y Change同比变化

2012 Outlook2012年预期

Rental

租金

Vacancy Rate

空置率

Capital Value

售价

Gross Yield

收益率

市场指标

Q3 2012

In contrast to falling FDI levels on a national level, in the first half of 2012, utilized FDI in Shanghai saw strong growth of 22.6 percent year on year to US$ 7.37 billion. During this period 1,681 foreign investment projects were approved in Shanghai.

The Xinhua-Dow Jones International Financial Centers Development Index, released in August, showed that Shanghai remains the world's sixth-most competitive financial center this year.

In the first half of 2012, a total of 253 foreign invested companies, 380 regional headquarters of multina-tional companies and 348 R&D centers were located in Shanghai.

Five new projects were launched in Shanghai’s Grade A office market during the quarter, adding a total of approximately 330,256 square meters of new supply. This supply included exciting projects such as L’Avenue and SOHO’s Century Avenue. Strong demand saw the average pre-commitment rate on launch of these five new buildings hit around 40 percent.

The average rental rate for Grade A premises continued to increase in the third quarter, rising by 1.2 percent quarter on quarter to RMB 8.7 per square meter per day despite the large volume of new supply.

与全国实际利用外资增幅收窄趋势不同,2012年上半年，上海实际利用外资73.7亿美元，同比增长22.6%; 同期全市新批外商投资项目1,681个。

今年八月，新华道琼斯国际金融中心指数发布，上海仍然位居全球金融中心排行第六位。

2012年上半年，在上海落户的投资性公司累计达253家，跨国公司地区总部达380家，外资研发中心348家。

第三季度共有五栋甲级写字楼项目交付使用，为市场带来总计330,256平方米的新增供应。新入市项目包括尚嘉中心以及SOHO世纪大道。在稳定市场需求的影响下，这几栋新入市项目的平均出租率达到40%。

第三季度，尽管有一批新项目入市，上海甲级写字楼平均租金，继续小幅上扬，达每天每平方米人民币8.7元，环比增长1.2%。

Utilized FDI in Shanghai grew 22.6 percent year on year to US$ 7.37 billion, in contrast to falling FDI levels on a national level. Contracted foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 15.8 percent to US$ 11.26 billion. In the first half of 2012, Shanghai approved 1,681 foreign investment projects.

The Xinhua-Dow Jones International Financial Centers Development Index ranked Shanghai sixth in terms of growth capacity for the second consecutive year, after New York, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore. Shanghai was rated number one in terms of having the most potential for the third consecutive year, based on indicators such as market, economic prospects, service and regulatory environment.

The development of Shanghai’s headquarters economy has maintained its momentum, according to the Shanghai Business Committee. By the end of June, an additional 13 foreign invested companies, 27 regional headquarters of multina-tional companies, and 14 R&D centers were established in Shanghai, bringing the totals for each sector to 253, 380 and 348 respectively.

The average rental rate for Grade A office space in Shanghai increased in the third quarter to RMB 8.7 per square meter per day, though transacted prices ranged considerably from RMB 10 to around RMB 12 per square meter per day for small units in premium buildings. The citywide vacancy rate grew to 9.5 percent due to the launch of five new projects in the downtown area including exciting projects such as L’Avenue and SOHO Century Avenue.

2012年上半年，上海利用外资呈现较快增长的态势，与全国实际利用外资增幅收窄趋势不同。实际利用外资73.74亿美元，同比增长22.6%；合同外资112.63亿美元，同比增长15.8%；新批项目1,681个。

2012年度新华-道琼斯国际金融中心发展指数发布，中国大陆的金融中心中上海仍居第六位，仅此于纽约、伦敦东京、香港和新加坡。尤其在"成长发展"这一指标上上海连续三年蝉联第一，成长发展指标分别从资本市场的长长性，经济成长性，城市创新产出与城市创新潜能等四个方面对城市成长发展能力进行评价。

根据上海市商务部统计，上海总部经济保持良好发展态势。上半年共认定新设投资性公司13家，跨国公司地区总部27家、研发中心14家。截至2012年6月，外商在上海累计设立投资性公司253家、跨国公司地区总部380家、研发中心348家。

受惠于稳定的市场需求，第三季度上海甲级写字楼租金小幅上扬至每天每平方米人民币8.7元；有些超甲级写字楼小面积单元的成交价格高达每天每平方米人民币10元至12元；受到五栋新入市的项目影响，例如尚嘉中心以及SOHO世纪大道，本季整体市场空置上升至9.5%。

P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 高力国际

租金分析RENTAL ANALYSIS

图2 上海甲级写字楼分区域入住面积和空置面积

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Figure 2 Shanghai Grade A Office Occupied and Vacant Area by LocationFigure 1 Shanghai Grade A Office Quarterly Supply, Take-up and Vacancy图1 上海甲级写字楼季度供应量、吸纳量和空置率

SHANGHAI | Q3 2012 | OFFICE

L’Avenue is a premium quality 28-storey office building at the intersection of Zunyi Road and Xianxia Road in the heart of Hongqiao. The building covers a total gross floor area of approximately 140,000 square meters, of which the office component accounts for a leasable area of 46,324 square meters. In September office asking rents for the building ranged from RMB 8.5 to 9.8 per square meter per day. By the end of September, the building had achieved the highest pre-commitment rate amongst the new supply that quarter with over 60 percent of the office area leased. Transactions included the leasing of 6,688 square meters to anchor tenant 3M and 2,151 square meters to JumpStart Company.

By the end of 2015, the Hongqiao Central Business District aims to attract more than 200,000 professionals specialized in the fields of trade, exhibition and logistics, and, in excess of 50 headquarters, trade and investment institutions, as well as an estimated 500 to 700 supporting companies to this locality.

SOHO Century Avenue, invested by the SOHO Group, is a 24-storey office building in Pudong’s Zhuyuan area. The building has a total GFA of 60,779 square meters, of which 44,515 square meters are leasable office space. In September asking rents at the building ranged from RMB 9.5 per square meter per day.

In August, SOHO announced that it would shift its from “build and sell” to “build and hold”strategy, on the back of expectations for growth in rental and capital values of prime office buildings in Shanghai. By September 2012, SOHO has made 11 acquisitions in Shanghai with an accumulated transaction value of approximately RMB 25.5 billion.

A number of high profile leasing transactions were closed this quarter, including: Nike China securing 1,564 square meters at CITIC Square; Cegedim China leasing 1,066 square meters at Manpo International Plaza; Danone Group securing 7,101 square meters at Kerry Parkside; MWE China Law’s procurement of 2,123 square meters in Jin Mao Tower and Adidas leasing 17,400 square metres in Shanghai International Commerce Center as their new China headquarters office.

In the third quarter, the overall vacancy rate increased from the previous quarter’s 6.7 to 9.5 percent. Among the six major central business districts, Jing’an recorded the lowest vacancy rates, at 5.3 percent. Zhuyuan and Changning posted the highest vacancy rates, at 14.9 percent and 14.2 percent respectively, primarily due to new supply at SOHO Century Avenue and Gubei International Fortune Center II.

位于遵义路与仙霞路交界处的尚嘉中心是一座28层高的超甲级写字楼。项目总体建筑面积为140,000平方米，其中写字楼部分出租面积为46,324平方米。目前租金报价在每天每平方米人民币8.5元至9.8元之间。截止至九月底，该项目已经取得了60%的入住率，其中包括3M中国公司承租了6,688平方米以及盟诺商务承租了2,151平方米。

到2015年年底，虹桥中央商务区的发展目标是吸引约20万专门从事贸易，展览和物流等领域的专业人士。商务区的管理委员会，引进各类企业总部、功能性投资贸易机构50家左右，其他各类配套企业500至700家。

SOHO中国投资的SOHO世纪大道位于浦东竹园商务区，建筑总高24层。项目总建筑面积为60,779平方米，其中写字楼部分面积为44,515平方米。目前租金报价在每天每平方米人民币9.5元。

今年八月，SOHO中国宣布将告别以往的散售模式，从“开发-销售”转向“开发-自持”。主要原因是该公司长期看好上海优质写字楼租金与资本价值的增长。至撰写报告之日，SOHO中国在上海共完成收购11个投资项目，累计收购金额约人民币255亿元。

本期主要写字楼交易包括：耐克中国在中信泰富广场租用了1,564平方米；赛捷中国在万宝国际广场承租了1,066平方米；达能亚太(上海)在浦东嘉里中心租用了7,101平方米；元达律师事务所在金茂大厦承租了2,123平方米以及阿迪达斯集团在上海环贸广场，租用了17,400平方米作为其新的中国区总部。

第三季度，上海甲级写字楼空置率由上季度的6.7%上升至9.5%。在六个核心商务区中，静安区空置率最低，仅为5.3%。竹园与长宁区空置率最高，分别为14.9%和14.2%，主要是受到SOHO世纪大道与古北国际财富中心二期这两个新增供应的影响。

Average Grade A office rental rates rose in the third quarter, increasing by 1.2 percent quarter on quarter to RMB 8.7 per square meter per day.

Jing’an district hit a historical high with average rents climbing to RMB 10.6 per square meter per day. Rental rates rose fastest in Changning district, to RMB 7.3 per square meter per day, a 7.4 percent increase over the previous quarter due to the launch of two high-profile projects in this area.

第三季度，全市甲级写字楼平均租金上升至每天每平方米人民币8.7元，环比增长1.2%。

本季度，静安区平均租金水平最高，达每天每平方米人民币10.6元。长宁区平均租金水平上升最快，达每天每平方米人民币7.3元，环比上涨7.4%，主要是受到两个新增优质项目的影响。

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Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09 Q3/09 Q1/10 Q3/10 Q1/11 Q3/11 Q1/12 Q3/12

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Quarterly Supply Take-up Vacancy Rate

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供给、需求和空置率SUPPLY, DEMAND AND VACANCY

Five Grade A office buildings were completed in the third quarter, adding a total of 330,256 square meters of new supply to the market: L’Avenue, SOHO Century Avenue, Oriental Financial Plaza, Lujiazui Finance Service Plaza, and Gubei International Fortune Center Phase II.

本季共有五座甲级写字楼投入市场，为市场带来330,256平方米新增供应。它们分别是：尚嘉中心、SOHO世纪大道，东方金融广场、陆家嘴金融服务广场以及古北国际财富广场二期。

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P 3 .高力国际

DECENTRALIZED GRADE A OFFICE MARKET 次中心商务区甲级写字楼市场

CAPITAL VALUE AND GROSS YIELD 市价和收益率

图6 次中心商务区甲级写字楼实际租金和增长率

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源: 上海高力国际调研部

Figure 5 Decentralized Grade A Office Quarterly Supply, Take-up and Vacancy Rate图5 次中心商务区甲级写字楼季度供应量、吸纳量和空置率

Figure 6 Decentralized Grade A Office Effective Rent and Growth Rate

SHANGHAI | Q3 2012 | OFFICE

A limited number of recent transactions indicate that developers still remain cautious in making land acquisitions, though buying sentiment does show some improvement over the second quarter.

In August, Shanghai Wind Information Co., a Lujiazui-based financial data provider, acquired a plot of 9,003 square meters in Pudong’s Lujiazui area for a total of RMB 800 million. This plot was designated for office and retail use, with a planned plot ratio of 4, suggesting an accommodation cost of RMB 22,000 per square meter.

Average gross yields in Shanghai’s Grade A office sector declined to 5.8 percent during the third quarter, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous quarter’s 5.9 percent. Average capital values are estimated to have increased by 2.9 percent quarter on quarter to approximately RMB 54,750 per square meter.

近期一系列的市场交易显示，开发商们拿地仍然非常谨慎，虽然从今年第二季度开始，房地产企业拿地积极性明显有所提高。

今年八月，一家总部设在上海浦东陆家嘴金融区，主营业务为金融财经数据领域的公司，上海万得信息技术股份有限公司以人民币8亿元在浦东陆家嘴板块拿下一幅出让面积9,003平方米，规划用途为商办的地块，折合楼板价为每平方米人民币22,240元。

第三季度上海的甲级写字楼租金回报率从上季度的5.9%下降至5.8％，较上一季度下降10个基点。据估计，上海甲级写字楼整体价格平均为每平方米人民币54,750元，环比增长2.9％。

Two new decentralized office buildings were completed during the quarter, adding almost 47,961 square meters of new office space to the market.

Chamtime Corporate Avenue is a 27-storey office building located at the intersection of Haining Road and North Zhejiang Road in Zhabei district. The building comprises a total of 47,123 square meters, of which approximately 36,000 square meters are designated for office use. Asking rentals at the building ranged from RMB 4.5 to 5.5 per square meter per day.

Xinhua Insurance Building is an 18-storey office building located in the North Bund area. The building comprises a total of 25,686 square meters, of which 11,961 square meters are designated for the leasing market. Asking rentals at the building ranged from RMB 5.5 to 6.5 per square meter per day.

Absorption of office premises in the decentralized area in the third quarter was approximately 36,537 square meters, pushing the overall vacancy rate down to 25.6 percent. Average rental rates grew to RMB 5.1 per square meter per day, a 2.9 percent increase from the previous quarter.

本季度有两栋次中心商务区甲级写字楼落成，为次中心商务区甲级写字楼市场带来47,961平方米的新增供应。

长泰企业广场是一栋27层高的甲级写字楼，位于闸北区海宁路和浙江北路交叉口。总建筑面积为47,123平方米,其中写字楼部分面积为36,000平方米。目前该项目租金报价在每天每平方米人民币4.5至4.5元。

新华保险大厦是一栋18层高的甲级写字楼，位于北外滩板块。总建筑面积为25,686平方米,其中用于出租的写字楼部分面积为11,961平方米。目前该项目租金报价在每天每平方米人民币5.5至5.5元。

第三季度，次中心商务区甲级写字楼净吸纳面积约为36,537平方米，推动整体空置率下降至25.6％。市场平均租金上升至每天每平方米人民币5.1元，环比增长2.9％。

图4 上海甲级写字楼分区域平均实际租金

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Figure 4 Shanghai Grade A Office Average Effective Rent by LocationFigure 3 Shanghai Grade A Office Effective Rent and Growth Rate图3 上海甲级写字楼实际租金和增长率

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Huangpu Jing'an Lujiazui Zhuyuan Changning Xuhui

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'000 sq mQuarterly Supply Net Take-up Vacancy Rate

Accelerating success.

CHINA:Shanghai16F Hong Kong New World Tower300 Huai Hai Zhong Road Shanghai 200021 PRCTEL +86 21 6141 3688FAX +86 21 6141 3699

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本文件由高力国际准备，仅作广告和参考之用。高力国际未对其中的信息，包括但不限于其内容、准确性和可靠性作出任何明示或默示的保证、陈述或承诺。任何有意者应自行求证信息的准确性。高力国际明确排除适用所有由本文件得出的推测或默示的条款、条件和保证，对由此引发的损失和损害亦不承担任何责任。此出版物的版权由高力国际和/或其许可方所有。©2012

发布于 2012年9月24日

Derek LaiDirector∣Office Services Landlord Representation∣East ChinaInternational PropertiesDir +86 21 6141 3624Derek.Lai@colliers.com

Michael WuDirector∣Office Services Tenant Representation∣East China Dir +86 21 6141 3638Michael.Wu@colliers.com

Date of issue: Sept 24 2012

Table 1 Major Office Leasing and Sales Transactions in Shanghai During Q3 2012表1 2012年第三季度上海写字楼市场主要交易案例

District 区域

L’ Avenue尚嘉中心

Lease租赁

JumpStart盟诺商务

Nike China耐克体育中国

Changning

长宁

Changning

长宁

Jing’an

静安

Xuhui

徐汇

Jing’an

静安

Huangpu

黄浦

Pudong

浦东

Pudong

浦东

Pudong

浦东

Xuhui

徐汇

L’ Avenue尚嘉中心

Lease租赁

3M3M公司

CITIC Square中信泰富广场

Lease租赁

Modern Services Complex Building 32

漕河泾现代服务园32号楼

Lease租赁

Tyco Healthcare泰科医疗

Manpo International Plaza万宝国际广场

Lease 租赁

Cegedim China Co.Ltd

赛捷中国

Lease / Sale 租赁 / 买卖

Company公司

Approximate GFA (sq m)总面积 (平方米)

Building Name大楼名称

Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research数据来源：上海高力国际调研部

Platinum新茂大厦

Kerry Parkside浦东嘉里中心

Lujiazui Software Park Building 12

陆家嘴软件园12号楼

Lease租赁

Lease租赁

Lease租赁

SONY

索尼

Danone Group

达能亚太(上海)

Autodesk

欧特克(上海)

Jin Mao Tower金茂大厦

ICC上海环贸广场

Lease租赁

Lease租赁

MWE China Law Office

元达律师事务所

Adidas

阿迪达斯

MARKET OUTLOOK 市场展望

James Shepherd Senior DirectorResearch and Advisory ServicesCorporate and Institutional ServicesEast and Southwest ChinaDir + 86 21 6141 4315James.Shepherd@colliers.com

This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general informzation only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s). ©2012. All rights reserved.

62 countries on 6 continentsUSA: 147Canada: 37Asia: 36Australia and NZ: 165Latin America: 19EMEA: 118

• $1.8 billion in annual revenue• 237 million sq m under management• Over 12,300 professionals

SHANGHAI | Q3 2012 | OFFICE

Given the steady growth performance of Shanghai’s economy in the first nine months of 2012 amidst a weak global business climate, Shanghai’s economic outlook is positive, and the Grade A office market should continue to experience solid demand for the remainder of 2012.

Colliers International expects rentals in the overall market to remain flat in the fourth quarter as new supply is absorbed. The vacancy rate is expected to maintain a level of around 8 percent as only one office building, Jing’an Kerry Center, is scheduled for launch in the fourth quarter of 2012.

In July, the Shanghai government announced that it intended to release details of a new rule to encourage multinational companies to set up their regional headquarters in the city by improvements to the investment environment and rewards for newly established headquarters and multinationals upgrad-ing their existing China headquarters to Asia or Asia-Pacific headquarters. No further information was available by the end of the third quarter．

Foreign investment remains an important KPI for Shanghai’s leadership, and city officials are expected to continue their attempts to attract multinational companies from the technology and service sector, in turn supporting future demand for office premises.

尽管今年全球商业环境不太景气，但今年首九个月，上海总体经济水平在表现平稳。对未来数月上海经济形势判断持积极乐观态度，与此同时，市场对甲级写字楼需求仍将保持稳定。

高力国际预计，第四季度市场整体租金将保持平稳，新入市的项目将陆续被市场吸纳。空置率预计将徘徊在8％左右，2012年第四季度仅有一栋超甲级写字楼，静安嘉里中心将入市。

今年七月，为进一步完善投资环境，上海市将于近期出台鼓励跨国公司设立地区总部的实施意见。新的措施将主要侧重于改善投资环境。具体而言，它会为新成立的总部或跨国公司升级他们现有的亚洲或亚太总部中国总部，提供集聚实体业务，拓展功能、提升能级。截止至三季度末，尚无具体细则出台。

外商投资仍然是上海城市经济发展的重要绩效考核指标，市政府领导们将继续吸引更多从事技术领域或服务性行业的跨国公司，这样一来将会积极地刺激和产生了广阔的市场需求。

6,688

2,151

1,564

1,514

1,066

801

7,101

4,574

2,123

17,400