riwc_lord filkin
TRANSCRIPT
An Ageing World – what does it mean for us?
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26 October 2016
Lord Geoffrey Filkin
Chair, Centre for Ageing Better
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An ageing world: more older people
230 million more people aged 65+ by 2025
60% increase in people aged 65+ by 2030
Three times as many people aged 80+ by 2050
Europe oldest; Latin America ageing fast; Africa slowest
Asia the oldest - with 55% of the world’s 65+ population
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World population aged 65+ (%), 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013,2014; International Data Base, U.S. population projection
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World population aged 65+ (%), 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013,2014; International Data Base, U.S. population projection
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An ageing world: longer lives
Globally, we are now living 35 years longer, on average, than in 1970
Since 1970, life expectancy has increased by 30 years in Asia; 10 years in Africa
From 2013 to 2045, Asia’s median age will increase by 9.5 years; Africa’s by 5 years
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Great opportunities
Extra years present a great opportunity
But there are big variations in later life well-being. For example:
People unhappier in Soviet Union/E. Europe
Happier in Latin America and richer English speaking nations
What can we do to enjoy our longer lives?
Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
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A social revolution
A massive change to the world is creating very different societies
Caused by smaller families and later deaths
So we have more older and fewer young people
Affects all countries and all people though the rate of change varies
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What makes for a good later life?
In the UK the evidence shows that a good later life depends on:
Enough money
Good enough health
Social relations
Meaning and purpose
A home and neighbourhood that supports us
Are these the main factors in your country?
Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
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How to prepare for a longer life?
Enough income - public pensions may be limited
Many will need to work for longer and save more
Try to keep healthy
Have meaning
Be socially active
Prepare with families for later frailer years
But, we are not good at doing these!
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Disabilities in later life
Rates of disability and of long term conditions increase with age
Hence, we will see an increased prevalence of, for example:
Deafness Dementia Diabetes Hypertension Cancer Frailty
Therefore, there will be an increased need for social care
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Disabilities in later life
Governments need to assess potential growth of disabilities and address four key issues:
Prevention – healthy lifestyles, less pollution
Help people help themselves – lifestyle choices, planning
Develop home-centred support
Re-shape health and care services for chronic illnesses
These changes and challenges will be with us for decades
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Fiscal challenges for government
Source: OECD Demographic and Labour Force database
Older population will grow twice as fast as working age population
More demand for health, pensions and support for people with disabilities
But fewer in work, relatively – so lower tax revenues!
A two-fold fiscal challenge
Number of people aged 65+ as % of labour force (15 to 64 years)
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What should governments do?
Assess what is happening now and in 10 and 20 years’ time
Consider social changes – family centred support?
Countries have different welfare traditions
Governments cannot do it all but can do much
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What should governments do?
Governments cannot do it all but they can:
Have a plan and a vision for their aging society
Promote the benefits of a longer life
Encourage later working and saving
Reduce smoking, obesity, poor diet, smoke pollution
Re-shape health systems
Review welfare settlement for rising demands
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How can we enjoy our longer lives?
It’s a lifetime goal
Work later, if you can, 30% do in Latin America, Asia and Africa
Save more - over a lifetime
Live a healthy life - avoid smoking, obesity, inactivity
Keep good social relations and a purpose to life
Live in a home suitable for our later years
Plan, prepare, discuss in the family
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How can we enjoy our longer lives?
Great opportunities from longer lives, even with disabilitiesWe do not need to be rich or in perfect health to be happy!
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References
Most data in this speech is from:
An Ageing World: 2015 - US Departments of Commerce, Health and Human Sciences.
Ready for Ageing? - 2013 House of Lords. The Filkin report.
Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
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About the Centre for Ageing Better
An independent charitable foundation launchedin January 2015 supported by the Government
We work for a society in which everybodyenjoys a good later life.
Secured a 10 year endowment fromthe Big Lottery Fund.
We are part of the network of What Worksorganisations that promote the better useof evidence.
Contact
Centre for Ageing BetterAngel Building, Level 3407 St John Street, London EC1V 4AD
020 3829 0113ageing-better.org.uk
Registered Company Number: 8838490 & Charity Registration Number: 1160741 19
Geoff [email protected]
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Appendices
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Health inequalities
Source: Department of Health analysis of General Household Survey 2006
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Later life in 2015
Factors contributing to a good later life:
Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
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World population aged 65+ (%), 2016
Source: Population Reference Bureau – www.worldpopdata.org (2016)