spatial forecast presentation

8/9/2019 Spatial Forecast Presentation

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Company

name-1

01-04-06-

Long-Range SpatialLoad Forecasting


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Company

name

-2

Spatial Forecasting

Locational forecasts of load growth by assigning load

to available land.

Determines spatial characteristics of long range load

growth.

Most accurate applied to undeveloped land.

Overall forecast tied to corporate econometric energy

/ demand forecast.


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Company

name

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Infrastructure

Interstates / highways

Major Roadways

Railroads Waterways

Longitude / latitudecoordinate based

Can be imported from GISdatabases, or fromcommercially-availabledatabases


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Company

name

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Land Use Definition

Three main classes:

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Other classes also available

Can be based on:

Land-use databases

Satellite Imagery

Planner's knowledge and

maps


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Company

name

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Land Use Definition Detail

Existing development is

designated according to

land use type.

Undeveloped areas are

designated according tozoning / development

plans.

Future Development

(Outline Only)Existing Development

(Solid)


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Company

name

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Spatial Forecasting

Precedence of load growth in available areas

determined by proximity to:

Infrastructure

Interstates / Highways

Major Roadways

Railroads

Waterways

Surrounding Development

Residential

Commercial

Industrial


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Company

name

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Growth of Small Areas

Governed by S-curve

characteristics

In each year, growth of

small areas constrained

by overall growth in thestudy area0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Years

PercentGrow

th

Start = 0, tau = 5

Start = 0, tau = 10

Start = 5, tau = 5

0)t(L = for t < t0

=

20 )tt(

max e1L)t(L

for t > t0


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Company

name

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Spatial Forecast Calibration

The spatial forecast is calibrated to known weather-

adjusted load levels in Year 0 using:

Substation Area Definition

Areas served by each substation defined

Load areas calibrated to non-coincident peak load

TLM (Transformer Load Management) Data

Optional

0.5 x 0.5 mile areas, for example

Load areas calibrated to peak load in each area


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Company

name

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Substation Area Definition

Substation service

areas defined based

on predominant

station serving each

TLM area.


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Companyname

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TLM Load Density

TLM load density by

quarter square mile

areas, for example

TLM data allows

density calibration to

experienced load level


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Companyname

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Forecast Results

Forecast provides a

yearly, stepped

evaluation of the

spatial load growth.Year 10

Year 20Year 0


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Companyname

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Spatial Forecast Results

Forecast results show spatial distribution and

magnitude of load growth.

Results available in visual (map display) format and

tabular format

Results can be rolled up by:

Substation

District

Land Use Classification


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Companyname

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Spatial Forecast Caveats

Most accurate when substantial vacant land isavailable for development. (Relatively inaccurate inredevelopment areas, e.g., CBDs, gentrification

areas.)

Best applied to determine long range trends. (Initialgrowth rates from short-term substation loadforecasts.)

Load growth allocations based on overall econometricforecast.


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Spatial Forecast Accuracy

A four year old forecast was recently reviewed foraccuracy and found to provide accuracy within 4% formultiple (6-8) substation areas.

The the review considered:

Major load transfers

Differences in forecast/actual weather conditions

Deviations in large spot loads

Multiple substation areas were used since there wassignificant discretion in new load substationconnections


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Spatial Forecast Accuracy

The four year old forecast review also considered

deviation between the econometric system-wide load

growth forecast and the actual system-wide load

growth over the prior four years.

Accounting for these differences showed the forecastwas:

2.5% accurate in all but two of the multiple substation areas

5% accurate on a per substation basis for approximately85% of the substations.

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