The Future of Software Engineering

中国科学技术大学软件学院孟宁

2010年 12月

Contents

14.1 How have we done?

14.2 Technology transfer

14.3 Decision making in software engineering

14.4 The professionalization of software engineering: licensing, certification and ethics

Chapter 14 Objectives

♦ The Wasserman principles and how we have done

♦ Technology transfer

♦ How researchers provide evidence for technology adoption

♦ Decision making in software engineering

♦ Next step in research and practice

14.1 How Have We Done?

♦ Use complex languages

♦ Use patterns and abstractions

♦ Apply formal methods

♦ Build a vast array of tools

14.1 How Have We Done?Challenges Ahead

♦ Provide great accuracy in the large: we can tell– when a space vehicle will reach Mars– when a chemical reaction will reach a critical

stage♦ Do not have accuracy in small: we cannot

tell– precisely when a software product will fail

again– exactly how a user will exercise system’s

function

14.1 How Have We Done?Wasserman’s Steps to Maturity

♦ Abstraction♦ Analysis and design notations♦ User interface prototyping♦ Software architecture♦ Software process♦ Reuse♦ Measurement♦ Tools and integrated environments

14.1 How Have We Done?What Now?

♦ Should consider how well we move the new software engineering ideas into practice

♦ Must consider how well our research and practice support decision making about processes, resources, and products

14.2 Technology Transfer

♦ Producers: create and use new technologies

♦ Consumers: adopt and use new technologies in new products and services

14.2 Technology TransferHow We Make Technology Transfer Decision Now

♦ In the 1960s and 1970s, it took an average of 7.5 years for new technology to become widely available

♦ Because of time-to-market pressure, new technologies must prove themselves quickly

14.2 Technology TransferAdopter Types

♦ Innovators♦ Early adopters♦ Early majority♦ Late majority♦ Laggards

14.2 Technology TransferEvidence Supporting Technology Decisions

♦ Researchers: reproducible validation methods – theoretical proof, static analysis, and

simulation

♦ Practitioners: methods relevant to their environment– case studies, field studies, and replicated

controlled experiments

14.2 Technology TransferTypes of Evidence and Their Audiences

What will you do for your new technology？

14.3 Decision-Making in Software Engineering

♦ Two points of view of decision-making– Descriptive描述性的 : provides evidence abo

ut how decisions are actually made– Prescriptive说明性的 : provides frameworks a

nd methods to help decision-makers

14.3 Decision-Making in Software EngineeringRoots of Decision Science

14.3 Decision-Making in Software EngineeringElements that Affect How We Make Decision

14.3 Decision-Making in Software EngineeringIssues in Group Decision-Making

14.3 Decision-Making in Software EngineeringTypes of Decision

♦ Strategic decision: affects the well being and nature of the organization

♦ Tactical decision: affects pricing, employee assignment, customer interaction, or operations

♦ Routine decision: repetitive in nature, local in scope, and guided by organizational rules or policies

14.3 Decision-Making in Software EngineeringHow We Really Decide

♦ Bias Caused by Decision Context 背景偏见♦ stereotype threat 刻板印象威胁♦ status quo bias现状偏见♦ Individuals exhibit a marked preference for case-

specific,or singular information个体对特定情况和单一信息由明显偏好

♦ 一个因素出现的越久远，回忆者降低其重要性的倾向就越高

♦ Anchoring-and-adjustment锚定和调整♦ 不愿表现的消极

14.3 Decision-Making in Software EngineeringExample Used in Assessing Group Effects

Condition Error rate

Subject is alone 1%

With one person who says A 3%

With two people who say A 13%

With three people who say A 33%

With six who say A and one who say B 6%

14.4 The Professionalization of Software Engineering:

Licensing, Certification and Ethics

♦ Improve software engineering education

♦ Licensing or certification to improve process and product

谢谢大家！

References软件工程 - 理论与实践（第四版 影印版） Software Engineering: Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition),Shari Lawrence Pfleeger,Joanne M. Atlee ,高等教育出版社软件工程 - 理论与实践（第四版） Software Engineering: Theory and Practice (Fourth Edition),Shari Lawrence Pfleeger,Joanne M. Atlee, 杨卫东译 , 人民邮电出版社软件工程—实践者的研究方法（ Software Engineering-A Practitioner’s Approach ） ; ( 美 ) Roger S. Pressman 著； 机械工业出版社 ISBN ： 7-111-07282-0http://code.google.com/p/advancedsoftwareengineering/