ATC Global 2014 The Sustainable Development of the Air Transport Industry 航空运输业的可持续发展

Robin Deransy Senior Expert

Environment and Climate Change 17/09/2014

World Airline Route Map

ATC Global 2014 2

June 2009 traffic – Source: Wiki-media

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Europe in World Traffic 2010/2036

2010

2036

Source: ICAO/CAEP ATC Global 2014

4

25

2035 -10%

-5%

5%

Flig

hts

in E

urop

e (M

illion

)

Annu

al G

row

th

2030 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 2025

15

0

20

10

5

-5

IFR traffic in Europe 1960-2012 historical figures 2013-2035 forecast

0%

Long-Term Trend before 2009

Long-Term Trend

=

Annual Growth

Actual Traffic

Long-Term Average Growth

Forecast Trafic

Traffic growth in Europe

Source: EUROCONTROL STATFOR

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Traffic, Fuel Burn and CO2 Emissions 2050

Traffic (AAE)

Fuel efficiency +1.5%/year (Industry)

Total fuel consumption (AAE)

Total CO2 emissions (AAE)

Fuel efficiency +2%/year (ICAO) Industry objective: +1.5%/year Fuel Efficiency + CNG 2020+ ICAO objective: +2.0%/year Fuel Efficiency + CNG 2020+

Industry objective: +1.5%/year Fuel Efficiency & -50% CO2 in 2050 vs. 2005

Source: Flying in 2050, Initial Report 31/10/2011, updated 10/11/2011, Académie de l’Air et de l’Espace (AAE, Fig. 7, p. 65)

CNG = Carbon Neutral Growth ATC Global 2014

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Getting From Here to There!

Source: ICAO/CAEP ATC Global 2014

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Technology - Reduction at Source A (Very) Rough Guide to the 2050 Fleet Aircraft Status 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

B737 Production

Operations

B737NG Production

Operations

B737Max Production

Operations

B747-400 Production

Operations

B747-8 Production

Operations

B777 Production

Operations

B777X Production

Operations

B787 Production

Operations

A320 Production

Operations

A320Neo Production

Operations

A330 Production

Operations

A350 Production

Operations

A380 Production

Operations

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ATM’s Contribution to Global CO2 Emissions

Source: CANSO ATC Global 2014

9 9

Operational Measures

Global Emissions

From this……

…..to this

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ATM concepts mitigation environmental impacts

10 10

Source: SESAR/Airbus “Green trajectory” ATC Global 2014

Airport Collaborative Decision Making

Improve predictability

Improve on-time performance

Reduce ground movement costs

Optimise use of infrastructure & reduce congestion

Reduce ATFM slot wastage

Flexible pre-departure planning

Reduce apron & taxiway congestion

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CDG

VIE BUD

Initial phase

Ongoing

A-CDM Airport

PRG

ZRH MXP

AMS

FCO

MUC

LYS

LIS

BRU

WAW

OSL

ATH

HER

BCN

SXF

GVA

IST MAD

PMI

LGW

DUS

FRA

RHO

TLS LIN VCE

MAN

BHX

DUB

CPH

LTN

LJU

ORY

LHR

A-CDM 2015

STR

HAM KBP

HEL

ARN

SOF

A-CDM 2014

A-CDM Implementation Status

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CDO – Continuous Descent Approach

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AIRCRAFT TYPE

AVERAGE FUEL BURN SAVINGS (KG) FROM

FL210

TIME SAVINGS (MIN) TO DESCEND FROM FL210

A320 85 KG

13% (2 min)

A340 258 KG 14% (2,9 min)

A340-600 261 KG 11% (2 min)

CDO is an operation, enabled by airspace design, procedure design and ATC facilitation, in which an arriving aircraft descends continuously, to the greatest extent possible, by employing minimum engine thrust, ideally in a low drag configuration, prior to the final approach fix.

ATC Global 2014

Environmental policies

Combination of policy tools over time

CO2 emissions (kg)

Actual fuelburn (kg)

Idle fuel burn (kg) (optimum trajectory)

Available tonnekilometre (ATK)

Revenue tonnekilometre (RTK)

Aircraft fuel efficiency

ANS fuelefficiency

Net carbon content

Load factor

Airlines/ Manufacturers

Air navigationservices

Alternativefuels Horizontal

en route profile

Taxi phase

Vertical en-route profile

Terminal holdings CO2 efficiency

(kg)/RTK

94%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

<1h

<2h

<3h

<4h

<5h

<6h

<7h

<8h

<9h

<10h

Flight duration in hours

cum

ulat

ive

%

FlightsFuel Burn

12% of flights >3 hours, burn 60% of fuel 20% of flights <1 hour, burn 4% of fuel

Source: PRC

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Measuring the Horizontal En-Route Profile

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KEA Indicator

requires surveillance

data

KEP Indicator

City pair distance (Great circle distance)

Shortest Route

Shortest Available Route

Last Filed FPL

Actual Trajectory

Business need: “Get from A to B” = direct route

Planning Operations Leng

th o

f Tra

ject

ory

Route Network Design

Route & Airspace Availability

Awareness and Choice

ATC Separation Fragmentation

Wind-optimum Cost-optimum

Difference due to planning limitations

Ref

eren

ce d

ista

nce

Extr

a di

stan

ce

Ref

eren

ce d

ista

nce

Extr

a di

stan

ce

Based on information known in advance

Tactical decisions based on updated information

Horizontal Flight (in)Efficiency = Extra distance / Reference distance (expressed as %) KEP = Horizontal Flight Efficiency of route on Last Filed Flight Plan (~ planned fuel consumption) KEA = Horizontal Flight Efficiency of actual (flown) trajectory (~ actual fuel consumption)

Source: PRC ATC Global 2014

5.42 5.385.18 5.15 5.11

3.29 3.17 3.12

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

rout

e ex

tens

ion

(%)

Source: PRU analysis

Target RP1 Targets RP2

Filed flight plan

Flight efficiency first measured in 2006: continuous improvement since then Good routing efficiency of ANS (≈3%) compared to other transport modes

• Yet significant economic impact (fuel burn, flight time) • Impossible to reach 0% with full civil-military traffic load

SES targets on Environment set for 2014 (FPL), 2019 (Actual, FPL) Improved flight-efficiency (from 3.29% in 2011 to 2.6% in 2019: SES target)

compensates for air traffic growth up to 26% until 2019 Carbon-neutral growth of aviation (due in 2020)

already being met as far as European ANS is concerned!

Actual flown trajectory

ENVIRONMENT:

Performance targets on en route flight efficiency within Single European

Sky (SES) scheme

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Source: PRC ATC Global 2014

Environmental performance

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ENV Impact Assessment Models & Tools

AEM Advanced Emissions Model

ALAQS Airport Local Air Quality Studies

STAPES SysTem for AirPort noise Exposure Studies

used for:

Policy Options assessments

Regulatory Impact Assessments

Assessment of Current and Future operations

Assessments of SESAR operational concepts FP projects

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IMPACT – Noise and Emissions in the cloud

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Source: EUROCONTROL EEC

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Collaborative Environmental Management

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Source: EUROCONTROL

ATC Global 2014

Leading-edge research REACT4-C, FORUM-AE

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robin.deransy@eurocontrol.int +33 1 69 88 74 78

ATC Global 2014