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TMBA2018 11 19

GDP FED

(1)Q3 GDP Q2 0.2%

(2) Powell

Fed (3)

OPEC (4)

(5)

(6)

(16 ) STOXX600 0.2% DAX 0.11%% FTSE100

0.34% CAC 0.17%

(16 ) 0.49%S&P500 0.22%Nasdaq 0.15%

(16 )

225 0.57%Nvidia

BDI

BDI147010207/24177442.50%

2502105715301453

1051969

6.77% 11.74% 8.43%

10.52% OPEC+

12 150 /

KD

0.63% 2.49%

ETF SPDR

Gold Shares11/13 0.84

11/16

11/16 0.369%

GDP

2.1%

2018/12/3() TMBA TMBA TMBA http://tmba.tw RSS TMBA FaceBook http://www.facebook.com/TMBA.tw?fref=ts

http://tmba.tw/http://www.facebook.com/TMBA.tw?fref=ts

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

TMBA TMBA All Rights Reserved

2

Nasdaq Equity- US N O O 4

S&P500 Equity- US N O O 5

Equity- US N O O 6

2000 Equity- US N O O 7

100 Equity- Europe N O N 8

MSCI () Equity- Europe N O N 9

225 Equity- Asia N O O 10

KOSPI Equity- Asia O N N 11

Equity- Asia N O O 12

Equity- Asia U N N 13

Equity- Asia N N N 14

JCI Emerging Market U N N 15

Emerging Market N O O 16

RTS Emerging Market N N O 17

Emerging Market N N O 18

BDI Natural Resources N N U 19

Natural Resources O N U 20

Natural Resources O O N 21

S&P REITs Real Estate N N U 22

10

10

Sovereign Bond

Sovereign Bond

N

O

U

N

U

U

23

24

Currency N N U 25

Currency N N O 26

Currency N N O 27

Currency O N U 28

Currency U N N 29

Currency O U U 30

O N U

TMBA

TMBA

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3

30%

10%A

20%

15%

15%

10% 0%

TMBA

2018.11.4-2018.11.16

DM

EM

2018.11.19-2018.11.30

DM

EM

2018.11.19-2018.11.30

EM

DM

MSCI

20%

()

15%

2000

20%

RTS

15%

15%

225

15%

MSCI

20%

()

15%

2000

20%

RTS

15%

15%

225

15%

TMBA

TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


4

K

V-5-i

2008 K

2016 V

V-3

1 V-3

V-5

1.: 111022.212.92010

0.1%94.1%

82.

11/30~12/1 G20

107,200

G20

6,962 8,200 6,600 9,200

TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


5

K

V-4

V-5-i

2008 K

III

2016

IV V

1.0.8%

3.7%

(MCD)(PG)(WMT)

(TGT)(SBUX)eMarketer

111215.8%2011

16.6%1,237.3

2,650 3,000 2,500 3,200

S&P 500 G20

TMBA

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6

K

V-5-i

2008 K

2016

IV

V 2017

V-3

1.: 100.3%CPI0.2%

2.4%0.1%

2.6%3%

G20

24,000 27,000 23,000 29,800

TMBA

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7

K

2000 11/16

1527.53

2000

V-5-ii

2008 K

V-1 16

VI

V

2000

(1)10

0.8%(2)

1,460 1,750 1,350 1,875

2000 2000 TMBA

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8

K

100

11/16 7013.88

0.64%

V-2-

c

2008 K

100

7.18%

V

1)18Q3GDP1.5%(1.2%)90.2%(-0.1%)

-97.31(-117.24)ILO4.1%(4%)-0.5%(

-0.4%)2)

3)13

21

Rabb61012

May3204)

6,900 7,600 6,600 8,100

100 TMBA

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9

K

MSCI ()

3.89%

V-5-ii

2008 K

MSCI ()

6.18%

V

ECB

1)18Q3GDP1.7%(1.7%)90.8%(1.8%)PPI

4.5%(4.3%)-0.3%(1.1%)103.3%(

3.3%)CPI2.2%(2.1%)11ZEW-22(-19.4)2)

IMF

3)GDP1.9%

2%Draghi

4)

120.25 147.82 108.83 161.67

MSCI () TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


10

K

225

21,680.34

2.56% V-5-iii

KD RSI

-1.2%

2008 K

2.65%

V-5-iii

22511/160.57%21,680.34(1)

GDP-1.2%-1%

9-7%

12.6%(2)7

201910

21,000 24,400 20,000 24,400

225 GDP TMBA

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11

K

KOSPI

2,092.4

0.3%

V-4 KD

RSI

2008 K

6.88%

V-4

KOSPI11/160.21%2,092.4

(1)103.9%4.1%

2.8%2.5%20192.9%2.3%

(2)

GDP

2,000 2,300 1,800 2,500

KOSPI TMBA

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12

K

97,97.09

0.33%

KD RSI

2008 K

8.33

I

V-4

11/160.3%97,97.09

(1)11/165.396.43

37,120(2)11

GDPGDP

(3)

9,500 10,500 9,000 11,000

TMBA

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13

K

11/16

10583.77,

-9.85%

-1.38%

C-4-c

6

4

2008 K

2008

2015

2016

C-4

(1)Fed12Powell

(2)Fed

IMF

(3)

10%(4)Q3GDP

G20

9,600 11,000 9,200 12,500

TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


14

K

11/16

2679.11

-18.99%

3.09%

C-3-iv

2,673

2008 K

2008

2015

C-3 A

(1)1021.4%(14.3%)15.6%(

14.5%)

; 106,970(,)7,288()M2

8%(8.3%)M12.7%(4%)(2)

MPA

(3)

2,500 2,691 2,400 2,800

TMBA

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15

K

V-3

12 FED

2008 K

V

(1):9YOY4.8%(:6.1%)6%(:5.75%)(2):

FedBI

(3):

1/1

(4)11

Q35.17%

DM

5,370 6,330 5,050 6,705

JCI TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


16

K

b

2008 K

V

(1): 10YOY3.31%(:3.7%)(2): (a)iphone

Nokia(b)VISA

15%(c)

11/19(3)2019

33,050 38,300 30,000 42,600

TMBA

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17

K

RTS

2

2008 K

RTS

2008

5 2011

2016

5

3

RTS1.41%5.52%

(1)103.5%(3.4%)3.1%(2.8%)PMI51.3(50)

10.71%

(2)6.77%8.43%

(3)

968 1,245 607 1,400

RTS TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


18

K

V-3

2008 K

V

(1):10PMI50.5(:47.3)10YOY4.56(:4.53)9

YOY0.1%(:4%) (2): (a)

50%(b)

(3)

BolsonaroGDP7 %

81,550 89,000 79,500 90,700

TMBA

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19

K

BDI 11/15 1020

BDI

BDI

A-4

2008 K

V

BDI 2014

BDI

BDI147010207/24177442.50%

(1)25021057

(2)15301453

(3)1051969

950 1,200 9,00 1,350

BDI BDI TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


20

K

2017/06

5 OPEC+

12 150

2008 K

2009

5 2016

5

4

(1)(EIA) 11/9 EIA 1027(320578.3)

20172(2)(a). 27.12%55.69

(b). 50/OPEC+

11/1112150/(3)

API11/9879(783)Baker Hughes

11/92888(4)

40 75 30 80

9.12%

TMBA

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21

K

6

1,200

2008 K

2012 5

Fed

5

(1)ETF SPDR Gold Shares 11/ 13

COT(2)

(3)(a). 0.24%1.64%

(b). 102.1%(2.2%)Fed11(c). 10PMI55.7(55.6)

(4)

1,000 1,300 700 1,400

TMBA

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22

K

S&P REITs 11/16

311.43

S&P Reits

REITs

2008 K

b

(1)(a)11/16154.36% (b)11/1630

4.94% (2)

13%

10

86%188%2000Fed

PowellFed

280 320 230 325

S&P REITs : S&P Reits TMBA

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23

K

10

11/16 3.06 %

2008 K

10

08

11~12

(1) 302009

303.4

(2)2

Fed10

300(3)

2.9% 3.25% 2.7% 3.75%

10 TMBA

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24

K

10 11/15

0.36

ECB

2008 K

10

08 11~12

18

18

0.2%~1.0%

1)18Q3GDP1.1%(2.3%)90.3%(2.5%)

0.2%(-0.3%)184(172)10CPI2.5%(

2.5%)PMI53.1(54.1)11ZEW-24.1(-24.7)2)

Q3GDP

3)613

2.4%214)

0.2% 1.0% -0.1% 1.4%

10 TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


25

K

11/15 97.1

B 2

88.5

2008 K

2008

2016

97

2.00%~2.25%9PCE YOY: 2.0%9CPI YOY: 2.2%12/19/2018

(1)10ISMPMI60.3

PMI54.854.9(2)10CPI2.1%FED

2% (3)0.8%

(4)9FOMC

2%

94.0 98.0 91.0 99.0

TMBA

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26

K

EUR/USD 11/16

1.1412

II 2018

2008 K

2010 C

X

(A,B,C)

17

1Q

ECB

(Deposit Facility):-0.4%10CPI YOY: 2.2%10CPI YOY: 1.1%9(IHS Markit)

52.7(54.1):12/13/2018

(1)3Q GDP10CPI8

GDP1.9%(2)10PMI

53.1PMI53.7(4)ZEW

-22(5)

2%

1.13 1.15 1.05 1.2

TMBA

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27

K

GBP/USD 11/16

1.2825

II

2008 K

2010 C

X 2013

(A,B,C)

2009

1.2

(Repo):0.75%10CPI YOY: 2.4%(2.4%)CPI YOY:2.1%(1.9%)10

51.1(53.6)54.3(53.5)3Q18GDP YOY:1.5%

:12/20/2018

(1)3Q GDP YOY1.5%

(2)3Q4.1%

103.2%()(3)

1.26 1.32 1.2 1.4

TMBA

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28

K

AUD/USD 11/16

0.7331 I-2

I-3

I-4

60

I-4

2008 K

I-4

O/N Cash1.5%3Q18 CPI YoY1.9%3Q18 CPI QoQ 0.4%2018/12/4

(1)11/6RBA1.5%2711/9 RBA4Q18

GDP YoY3.5%4Q192.25%2Q204.75%

(2)11/13NAB12 15

11/143QYoY 2.3%2.10%

(3)11/155.00%5.00%5.10%32,800 20,000

7,80065.6%65.5%

0.717 0.733 0.711 0.737

: RBA TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


29

K

USD/CNY 11/16

6.94

6.63%; USD/CNH

11/16 6.92,

6.24

Fed

11/7

3 1

100

2008 K

2016 IMF

SDR

()

1.50%4.35%MLF3.3% ; 10CPIYoY2.5%

(1)10CPI2.5%PPI3.3%(3.6%)CPIPPI

(2)103.053(3.087)

(3)

(4)11/166.9377USD/CNY-0.27%

USD/CNH-0.4%Fed6.97

6.9-6.977

6.8 7.0 6.6 7.2

:

TMBA

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________


30

K

USD/JPY 11/16

112.83

III-1

2008 K

BOJ

BOJ 11/13

GDP

19 9

BOJ-0.1%9CPI YoY 1.0%2018/12/20

(1)11/143QGDP QoQ -1.20%3.00%-1.00%QoQ

-0.3%QoQ -0.9%4Q GDP

(2)11/14

(3)11/5PMI 52.450.2

MoMPMI

BOJ11/5 BOJ

112.40 114.10 112.19 114.63

TMBA

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31

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