weekly ounceofmarketsmacrosandeverythingelse.doc
TRANSCRIPT
Weekly Ounce of Markets, Macros & Everything Else Edition 2
US Fed takes centre stage
Jobs data for August rose by
151k against the market
expectations of 180k, but
now the average monthly
job growth has better than
expected. Unemployment
rate now stands at 4.9%. Fed
futures for Dec indicate a
46% chance for rate hike
against 42% chance yesterday and September hike looks off the table.
Indian Markets – FII Driven Rally
Nifty and Sensex are at new 52 week highs for 2016. If we look at who is
behind the rally, it has been flows from FIIs and DIIs who have been
supporting the rally very strongly. Despite the earnings being weak, markets
have surged on easy liquidity, good monsoons, and global liquidity being
loose. FIIs have invested USD 6.1bn in 2016 on an YTD basis (JanAug) into
equities alone against USD 4.46bn in the same period last year. Most of these
flows are currently through ETFs rather than long only funds like pension or
SWF funds. It is most likely that we may see some brakes on flows if US Fed
decides to hike rates. Avoid making lumpsum investments currently and
invest in a SIP/STP mode for the next few months.
Gold – Missed Rally
Gold has been one asset where investors have missed the bus in the past one
year. It has delivered almost 20% returns over a year and has been trading
higher due to USD not strengthening this year, bond yields turning negative
globally and investors pumping money into ETFs. SPDR gold trust, which has
the largest ETFs in the world saw holding increase by almost 4050% from 650
tonnes in beginning of the year to almost 950 tonnes now. Gold mining
companies in these six months have given almost 34x returns and World
Gold Funds have delivered 80100% returns. Gold may perform if there is risk
aversion as most major bonds are in negative yields so investors may remain
bullish on gold. I recommend 510% max exposure as a diversification tool
and may head towards USD 2000 levels in 23 years.
Q1 GDP FY17 – Expect a revision later
Q1 GDP for FY17 started on a disappointing note as it expanded 7.1% against
7.5% last year and 7.9% in the previous quarter. Private Final Consumption
Expenditure slowed down to 6.72 %( accurate data is not fully available so it
is kept as discrepancies; expect number to be revised later once the data is
fully available). Government Final Consumption Expenditure expanded at
18.84% as government expenditure is strong and with 7th Pay commission to
take place, it will be strong even in the next quarter. Capex continues to
remain weak with Gross Fixed Capital Formation contracting 3.1% mainly due
to weak private sector capex. Private sector capex is expected to remain
muted and only improve after 45 quarters.
Under Everything Else
●
● Janata Garage a telugu movie is a must watch for it’s very good story
and environmental concern ( being a telugu native, I may be biased)
● Start up fundings are finally seeing some action after investors have
burnt their fingers by seeing their investments facing mark downs
● Reliance Jio – Game Changer? Don’t know, lets see a fresh tariff after
the commercial Launch, though it has made voice calls free. Disclaimer:
I have been using Jio for the past 3 months and data speed has been
awesome but there has been problems with call connectivity
● Reading the Book Mossad by Michael Bar Zohar and Nissim Mishal, it’s
a must read. Very interesting how a small country has been protecting
itself from 510 hostile neighbours.