wpa's weekly political brief 120309
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 9, 2012
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WPA’s Key Weekend Charts
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday morning.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Super Tuesday Overview
• Remaining states available
• A look at the problems facing Santorum and Gingrich.
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Weekly Summary
While Romney did not win Super Tuesday decisively, he won enough to establish a commanding
position over Santorum and Gingrich, taking 208 delegates to Santorum’s 84 and Gingrich’s 68.
• Romney has more than double Santorum or Gingrich’s delegate counts.
The issue that Santorum and Gingrich face is now one of numbers; they can’t just win, they need to
win big. By far the easiest place to do this is in winner-take-all states. But even here, Romney
probably has enough of an edge.
• Only Wisconsin, with 42 delegates has a reasonable chance of going to Santorum.
• While anything can happen, Utah (40), New Jersey (50), and a majority of California (172)
are likely Romney wins.
This would leave only proportional delegate states to make up the difference and overtaking
Romney in those states would require a change in the political landscape. The slow and steady
numbers game is finally working for Romney.
Meanwhile Obama is seeing a bump in his economic rating, though hasn’t yet translated into overall
support.
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American satisfaction with the direction of the country remains low.
Source: Real Clear Politics
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 32%
57% 63% 63%
75%
64% 62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
Direction of the County
Approve Disapprove
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Job approval for Obama remains just under 50%, and has been stable for the last few months.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 49% 49%
Disapprove 47% 47%
46% 52%
44% 43%
49% 49% 42%
51% 52%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
Unemployment stayed even with its January position at 8.3%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted
7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50%
10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50%
Gallup Data
9.1%
8.8%
10.3% 10.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
February, 2012 8.3%
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Obama’s rating on the economy has improved with the stirrings of economic recovery.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll
58%
44%
41% 36%
39% 48% 35%
52% 58%
63% 60%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4/20/2009 10/5/2009 1/17/2010 5/11/2010 9/13/2010 1/10/2011 6/20/2011 12/12/2011
Obama on the Economy
Approve Disapprove
Page 8
Democrats maintain their slight edge on the generic ballot, but neither party is showing momentum.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Republicans 43% 44%
Democrats 44% 45%
41% 42% 43% 42% 45%
44% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
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$49,421
$136,739
$15,476,931,815,200
Each citizen’s share of the debt has increased $191 since last week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
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While he didn’t deliver a knockout punch, Romney did take over 50% of the delegates available on Super Tuesday.
Candidate Super Tuesday
Delegates
Romney 208
Santorum 84
Gingrich 68
Paul 21
Romney
Santorum
Gingrich
Super Tuesday Wins
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After Super Tuesday the problem for Gingrich and Santorum becomes more stark, with 34% of the available delegates already accounted for.
Already Voted
Early to Mid March
Late March to Early April
Late April
Early May
Later
Candidate Delegates
Romney 404
Santorum 161
Gingrich 105
Paul 61
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Proportional wins like Oklahoma, Tennessee and North Dakota won’t help Santorum catch up, and Romney is likely to take a majority of the remaining winner-take-all states. We are approaching or at the point where Romney’s slow aggregation of delegates will be insurmountable.
14
25
11
13
10
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Oklahoma Tennessee North Dakota
Santorum Wins
Santorum Romney
Winner-Take-All States Remaining
State
Likely Romney Utah, California*, New Jersey
Likely Santorum Wisconsin
Either Way Maryland, Delaware, District
of Columbia
*Winner-take-all by CD, Romney has been leading statewide
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