wpa's weekly political brief

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 31, 2012

WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment

as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• The Public’s Economic Outlook

• The change in median household incomes nationwide and among key groups

• Changes in Party Identification Among Key Groups from 2008 to 2012

Weekly Summary

• The public has a very negative view of the current state of the economy and is feeling

hurt by the previous four years (pg. 9).

o More Americans feel as though the economy is moving toward or in a recession

than those who feel it is heading in the right direction.

o Nearly twice as many Americans feel worse off now compared to 2008 than

those who feel better off.

• Median Household Incomes dropped off significantly from the end of the recession in

June 2009 (pg. 10-11).

o Incomes have fallen more during the recovery than during the actual recession.

o Many key groups are feeling the effects, including the self-employed.

• White voter identification has shifted in Republicans’ favor among key groups (pg.

14).

o Obama’s appeal with white voters in 2008, who were key to his victory, are

increasingly identifying as Republicans.

29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%

17% 19%

31% 30%

32%

31%

47%

66% 62% 64% 63% 64% 66% 64%

77% 74%

61% 62%

62%

63%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

More than 60% of the nation feels as though the country is on the wrong track.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 32% 17%

Wrong Track 62% 77%

2010 Election

Obama’s job approval remains below 50% with less than 3 months until the election.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 46% 46%

Disapprove 50% 49%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47% 46% 48%

49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

50% 49% 49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

$50,891

$139,985

$15,992,569, 102,544

The national debt will pass $16 Trillion long before the election.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 41% 41% 42%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46%

43% 43% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

Republicans continue to hold a 2-point lead over Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot with just over two months remaining.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats 49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

53%

39%

A majority of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Source: Pollster.com

2010 Election

Americans have serious concerns about the economy. More Americans feel as though the Nation is either in, or heading into a recession and nearly twice as many people feel like they are worse off than better off since 2008.

20%

40%

39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Personal Economic Change Since 2008

Worse Off

About theSame

Better Off

42%

11%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Is the Nation Heading toward a Recession?

Headed intoRecession/Alreadyin a Recession

Unsure

Not Headed into arecession

Source: CBS News Poll, August 22-26

An analysis of the recession from Dec 2007 to June 2009 and the three following years showed that wages median household income actual fell further during the economic recovery than during the recession.

Source: Washington Post and Sentier Research

Breaking down the changes in income from June 2009 to June 2012 shows that many keep groups have seen their incomes drop considerably, including those who are self-employed dropping 9.4%.

-4.8%

-9.4% -11.0%

-4.1%

-8.9%

-4.5% -3.8%

-9.7%

6.5%

2.8%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Change in Median Household Income June 2009 to June 2012

Source: Washington Post and Sentier Research

Unemployment has remained above 8% for more than 40 consecutive months.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

125,000 =

Number of new

jobs needed to

keep pace with

population

growth

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

July 2012 8.3%

87,000 64,000

163,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

May June July

Jobs Created by Month

President Obama has remained below 50% against Mitt Romney for all of 2012


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%

43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44% 46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug 15-Aug 30-Aug

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

White voter identification has shifted in Republicans’ favor among key groups. Obama’s appeal with white voters in 2008, who were key to his victory, are increasingly identifying as Republicans.

51% 57%

40% 35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008 2012

Party Identification among White Males

Republican Democrat

42%

47% 49%

44%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008 2012

Party Identification among White Females

Republican Democrat

46% 54%

44% 38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008 2012

Party Identification among Whites 65+ years old

Republican Democrat

42%

46% 49%

45%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2008 2012

Party Identification among Whites 18-29 years old

Republican Democrat

Source: Pew Research Center

For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:

Bryon Allen Partner and COO

202.470.6300

E-mail:

[email protected]

Chris Perkins Partner

202.494.3084

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405.286.6500

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wpa's weekly political brief

News & Politics