""

2009

11562 3

+202 240 55 452 +202 240 55 494

bcaba brn ba :a

Zbabc

im

2008 Trickle Down Effect

2008

20082004 %19 2007-2004 %25

stabilization

Za br ana na brna

c@ m@bna ba ba aZbrna b

Z7a@a brnapbba

m

Za baba brna bm

ii

m

2007-2000 2007/2006-2005/2004

2007/2006 %5

2004 2007/2006

% 9

2007

2007/2006

na @pb 5c a a Zba

Zbam rc bau m

Zbja jua baclanua@ @

@a br ba@nanZbrna

pbbcyc bau bbana aZna a

iii

m

%40 %7.2 %9 2007/2006 11.1

.1

.2 %35 %44 %90 %10

.3 %77

2004

pb a m qa by a7a pba a brna

Zna

iv

m

2007

@a brna bna a@j La bna @kmmbg pb i ya @paaua

Za6a xanaba m a

Zpbna

pbn0a

(2005-1995)

5

7

7

9

10

11

12

17

17

18

21

24

27

27

29

30

36

39

41

42

43

44

45

1:1 72:1 83:1 84:1 85:1 86:1 97:1 108:1 109:1 11

10:1 1211:1 1312:1 14

1:2 172:2 183:2 204:2 "" ""225:2 236:2 23

1:3 2007 282:3 293:3 294:3 305:3 316:3 317:3 328:3 339:3 33

10:3 34

1:4 422:4 423:4 (2008-2009) 434:4 (2009) 435:4 2006 44

Zba b

Zaa b

1:2 182:2 193:2 194:2 205:2 226:2 22

1:3 302:3 35

1:4 44

5

akja

bra kja bc

sbra@kja@jm

iaa kja h a7c

6

2007 20072006

2004

7brna pbba

2002/2001 2:1 %46 %23 2004/2003 2003/2002 %35

(2007-1975)

1:1

1997

brnapbba

2008/20072005/2004

brnapbba b Z c

1:1Hu biI a brnba@ba m

a a

8brnapbba

2000 %0.87 2007 %0.54 4:1

5:1 2000

2004 %15 %26

3:1 1997

2:1(%)a brna

3:1(%)ba0awmbag0a bna j

4:1(%) aag@a j

5:1@(%) aa m

9brna pbba

2007/20062006/2005 2:1 1:1%28

%19 %25 6:1

2006/2005 (1999/1998

2004

2002/2001 %22 %23.5

2008 %20 2007/2006 %8

6:1(%) ba0awmba brna@k

brn@aa@na Zbbq

10

brnapbba

7:1 12007-2000

%60

%10 %16 %4

8:1 %6 %3

2

%60

7:1@(%) a@pabrnaa na(2007-2000) 6a

34

1

30 10

6 3

16

- 1 - 2

0.3

31.8 11.5 3.0

3.0 17.8

8:1@(%)pbn aa na(2007-2000) 6a

brn@ba@na@Zbrbq

32.6

11

brna pbba

%20

%7%5

%25

%13 1999 1998 2004 %5 %18

9:1

2007/2006 2005/2004 %25 %20 2006/2005 %9 2007/2006 %25

10:1

9:1(%) brnba na

bbiba brna Zbia

12

brnapbba

2007/2006 %33 %35 %13 %20 (Trickle Down Effect)

""

crowding out non-tradable

crowdingin tradable

10:1(%) pabrna@@bababa@k

bja jua brna Zbb

13

brna pbba

2008

(11:1) 3 1979%6.7

%3

%1 1994 (12:1)

11:1(%) g bja jua brnapbmHba0awmbagpabrnabI

- 3

14

brnapbba

1991

(11:1)

(12:1) 4 %1

2003%0.28 2000

2004

2006 379 2002 166.3

2004 %1.5 2007/2006 %7.1 %7.5 %2.1

2007 30

%0.5

12:1H bI ba ag bja@jua brnapbm

UNCTAD, FDI STAT, World Investment Report (2007), Foreign Direct Investment, FDI ows and Stocks, Major FDI Indicators

- 4

15

brna pbba

2009 %2

1.65 2009/2008 2.97

17

a@bna brna qc

(2007/2006 1983/1982) 1:2

Growth Accounting 1

z brna Z c

Framework Total Factor Productivity (TFP)

1:2 2005/20041991/1990

Mustafa Nabli, Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Growth, The World Bank, 2007, Chapter 7; Hanaa Kheir-El-Din and Tarek Moursi, Sources of Economic Growth and Technical Progress in Egypt: An Aggregate Perspective, in Explaining Growth in the Middle East, edited by J. Nugent and H. Pesaran, Elsevier, 2007; and Hanaa Kheir-El-Din and Heba El-Laithy, An Assessment of Growth, Distribution, and Poverty in Egypt: 1990/91-2004/05 in Hanaa Kheir-El-Din (ed.), The Egyptian Economy: Current Challenges and Future Prospects, AUC Cairo Press, 2008, Chapter 2.

- 1

1:2(%) aba0awmba brna m

20082007/2006-1982/1981

a@bna brna qc bra a

18

a@bna brna qc

(2:2) %2.6 %4.2 %1.5

2%10

91/199096/1995

96/199500/1999

00/199905/2004

91/199005/2004

0.5462.3491.9931.509

-1.0880.0810.782-0.153

1.6332.2671.211.661

19.82423.8220.68921.178

3.2654.5582.413.325

1:2wmba ba k a b@(% a ba n)

Hanaa Kheir-El-Din and Heba El-Laithy, An Assessment of Growth, Distribution and Poverty in Egypt: 1990/9-2004/05, in Hanaa Kheir-El-Din (ed.): The Egyptian Economy: Current Challenges and Future Prospects, op.cit., p17.

2:2bb@wmba bac ba k (%)xbna a a ubnbi

Hanna Kheir-El-Din, The Egyptian Economy: Current Challenges and Future Prospects, op.cit.

1996/1995 1991/1990

2000/1999 1996/1995

2005/2004 2000/1999

Employment-Intensity of Growth

19 - 2

a na a qq Zbbq

19

a@bna brna qc

(2:2) Employment Elasticities to Growth and

GDP3

%1 %0.66

(3:2) (%28) (2007/2006 2003/2002) %12.3

%0.51 %0.45)

2:2na pbba ba0awmb ba na pb m

" " 2008 (130)

1991/1990 1981/19802005/2004 1992/1991

0.230.770.470.310.690.25 0.460.540.660.60.40.66 0.310.690.280.310.690.34

0.510.490.390.540.460.38 0.480.520.450.490.510.46

0.520.480.510.540.460.43

" " - 3 2008 (130)

2008 (%) *

3:2ba pabrna@bababa k(2007/2006 2003/2002) 6a

(%)

15182.8*(40.8)

22035(59.2)

37217.87.22

11492.4(18.2)

51807(81.8)

63299.412.29

67286.9(46.5)

77320.3(53.5)

144607.228.07

2028.7(18.8)

8770(81.2)

10798.72.1

62615.5(51.1)

59910.3(48.9)

122525.823.78

75803.7(55.4)

60945.7(44.6)

136749.426.54

234410(45.5)

280788.3(54.5)

515198.3100

20

a@bna brna qc

%28 %0.57 2007/2006 4%7.2

Agriculture Transformation Strategy

2005/2004 (3:2) 2007/2006%7.2 (4:2) 2007/2006 %1.85

2008

4:2@(%)ba@0awmba@pbba b(2007/2006 2005/2004)ba

2005/20042007/2006

0.000.530.530.000.570.57

0.720.821.540.531.321.850.040.30.340.080.820.90

0.540.420.960.590.621.21 0.270.440.710.461.071.53

0.010.610.620.010.440.45 0.300.000.300.320.000.32

0.000.120.120.010.330.34

1.883.245.122.005.177.17

3:2@(%)ba@0awmba@pbba b(2007/2006 2005/2004)ba

2008

(c -@3:2 )(l -@3:2) 2005/20042007/2006

- 4

21

a@bna brna qc

5

%54.4 3:2 2007/20062003/2002 %5.2 2007/2006%72

%7.2

Trickle Down Effect 6 " "

2007/2006 %40 %9 11.1 2008/2007 13.2

(4:2)

5- Industrial Modernization Center, Overview of Egypt's Agriculture Sector Transformation Program, Cairo, 16 July 2008.6- Commission on Growth and Development, "The Growth Report: Strategies For Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development", World Bank, 2008.

a a brna Zbrbq

22

a@bna brna qc

.1 4:2

2007/2006

.2 %35 %44 (5:2) 2006 %28.7 %10 %33

1998 72006 575

2 (6:2) %10 Modern Economy " "

4:2n babg Ba jB BaaB k@(%)ba

1996/19952000/1999

2005/2004

World Bank, Arab Republic of Egypt (ARE), Poverty Assessment Update, Washington DC, September 16, 2007.

2006

5:2a na ba

(%) 27.9 16.1 7.6

28.7 4.3

15.4 100

Ragui Assaad, Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, 2006

6:2a

(%) 100 22 9.1 2

90.9 20

28.5 5.7 35.0 7.0 36.5 5.3 10.0 2.0

7- Ragui Assaad, Egyptian Labor Market Survey (ELMS), 1998; and Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), 2006 both published by the Economic Research Forum (ERF) in Cairo.

23

a@bna brna qc

%28.5

%26.5

(Decent Jobs) " " (5:2)

Initial .3 Distribution of Income

2005/2004 %40 %20 %15 %28 (3:2) %50.6 %26.2

%76.8

external shocks

(6:2)

5:2aa 7@ba bbi ba pbjm uc@m@(%)a bvy a b

Ragui Assaad, The Dynamics of Decent Work in Egypt, Population Council, June, 2008.

10-(49-10)(99-50)(100+)

6:2@(%)a na H2008@ M@2000 bI

2008

00

00

00

00

01

01

01

01

02

02

02

02

03

03

03

03

04

04

04

04

05

05

05

05

06

06

06

06

07

07

07

07

08

08

08

24

a@bna brna qc

2006 " " %66 %22 %30 2008

"" %20 %16.4 1423"%20 1222 1592 1854 " " " ""

%7 0.66 %4.2%2.9 %2.1

%19 %25 %18 %10-9

8

jn Zbia

- 8Mahmoud Mohieldin, Strategy of Economic Growth in Egypt, Discussion Paper, Cairo University, December, 1996

25

a@bna brna qc

(2012/2011-2008/2007) %8.5 %23 20.1 2012/2011 23.9 %9.1 %5.5

750 4.5

%8-7 92009/2008 %6%5 %21.2

%27.7

%7

15-10

19 2008 - 9

27

qa ba a

(2008/2007 - 2005/2004)

2005-) (1995

1993 814

2 12

215 295 125 430 195 20 2 1.7 2 2.1

%23.5%15%76 1%107 %11.4 %51.6 %562 %21.1 %68

b Z c

%7 - 1 2007 2007 - 2

Zqa@ba aby a

sbra a

28

qa ba a

%18.6 %8.4 %60.8 2005 3000

3 167 (1:3) 100 40 23 (%60) 9 (%24) 15 (%5)

(%2) 3(%9)

440 779 2007 167 4 12 23

5

(2:3) 5

Standard International Trade Classication

Revision3 (SITC Rev.3)

6

7

2:3 %27 (%25) (%22) (%23) (%3)

2:3 %65 (%20) (%11)

(%4)

1:3() 2007 qa pb@banaa

2007

2007 - 3 - 4

2007 .2007 - 5

- 7 - 6

29

qa ba a

(2005-2000) (1999-1995) 44 96

2002 1999

(4:3) (2005-2000) %5

8(2005-1995) (3:3)

(3:3)

(1998-1995)

2:3(%)pb ba baba na

2007

(cM2:3 )(lM2:3)

27

23

25

3

22

4

20

11

65

pb ba ba pb ba na

2007 2006 2008 - 8

2007

3:3na yaa pba ac m(2005-1995) 6a pb

%

30

qa ba a

(1999-1996) %53 %13 1999-) %76 (2005-2000) (1996

%8-2005

20052004

4:3bna pba@ac@ m(%) ba vy brna

(2005-1996) 6a

2007

38 %21 33 4 %43 %17 %2

(1:3) %70 %80

1:3a pb ba ubna pbba

(%)

(%)

(%)

0513.213.2

10513.226.4

20410.536.9

3025.342.1

40718.460.6

50410.571.1

6037.979.0

7025.384.3

8025.389.5

410.5100.0

qa aa@a Zbrbq

31

qa ba a

(5:3)

%95 %58 (6:3) %34

%18 (%3) (%8)

(%3)

%52 %16

5:3(%) brna bbna a

6:3(%)pba upba aug pbu

- 9

32

qa ba a

2005) 9(2007 20063.4 2006 %22.1 2005 2.8 2007 %50 %7.83 %752007 1.2

%20.1 2.6 3.1 2006 2007 2005 2.9 %7.8 %25 %75 2007 2005 2007 0.4

2007%10.42006%15.6 36 %50 19 2005 21

2007 15 2006

2000 (2007-2005) 2007

(7:3) " " " %55 " " (%50) " "(%45) " (%37) " " " " %8 %5

%29 (%24) (%19) (%14) (%14) %32

7:3(%) b qa brnap

5

55

8

50

1345

13

37

13

32

18 26 24

33

qa ba a

%21 (%16)

(%10)

(%43) (%24) (%35) (%29)

(8:3) %61 %2 %37

10

(9:3)

8:3(%) pba b

37

61

2

- 10

9:3(%) qbi brnapa pa@apba

34

qa ba a

%15 11%5

12

%67 %28 %24 %20 %20

(%8)

(9:3)

2008

7

%68 (%27) (%35)

(%8)

(10:3) %61 %13 %37 %34

10:3(%)xbna p am bc

- 11 2004 - 12

35

qa ba a

13

%76 %66 %50 %53 14

%90

15

%42 %25 %31

%47 %21

(2:3)

- 13

- 14 - 15

2:3rnau@brnab@pby6c

(%)

53 47 47 45 45 45 45 37 37

36

qa ba a

2000

a Zbia

37

qa ba a

39

a bna

""

" " " " " "

" "

" "

a bna iaa a

40

a bna

" " ""

.1 " " 2004

.2 1990 130 2002 173 85 177 115 119

.3

.4

.5

41

a bna

.6 " "

1979 1994

1 134

2006/2005 114 58 77 2007/2006 122 71 13481 2008/2007 131 2009/2008

ba@bna m@Z c

131124 2006 9 - 1

"Global Competitiveness Index"

42

a bna

(1:4) 26

36 31

(2:4)

1:4ba bna @a@paa kmm

2009/20082008/20072007/2006

(26) (27) (31)

(35) (36)

(37) (48) (37)

(37)

2:4ji@b bn a a kmm(2009-2008) bc b9a a

125

70 2007/ 127 2008 38 33 28 25 %17 (1) (3) (%15) (2) (4) (%13) (7) (%7) (6) (%7) (5) (%8)

(%7)

181

aja ba ba ac@m Zbbq

43

a bna

(3:4) 125 2006 2007 40 2008 2009 114

181 11

2008 2007 2009

18 13 18 16 (4:4)

1991

2007 33 141 2006 68 1 35 (1:4)

165 163

3:4ba b a@bapb1a@kmm(2009-2008)

151 145

128 125

114 125

24 26

70 83

84 115

41 55

107 108 85 101

4:4b9@a a i@kmm(2009) bc

@ ba ba brna m@Zbrbqna@bvn zna a@ @

- 1

44

a bna

%2.5 %28.3

(5:4)

(1

(2

(3

(4

1:4ba brna mpa @kmm

*

200520062004200520052006

683379818177

5:4bc ji@b g aa bja jua@brna( ) 2006ba a

2005 *

a Zbia

45

pbna

2008

%7 2009/2008

%4

a pbyapbba Z c

pbna

46

pbna

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-1

-2

-3

a Zbbq

47

pbna

-4

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

-1

na7a brna m Zbrbq

na@a Zbia

48

pbna

-2

-3

-4