矿业 2013 - 信心危机

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咨询. 矿业 2013 - 信心危机. John Gravelle. 严格私有及保密. Draft. 1. Section 1 – Highlights. 何为矿业 ?. 市场总值排名前 40 的上市矿业公司业务分析 信息来源于最新公开上市信息 未作任何调整以反映不同审计报告要求或年终情况 ( 报告中的期限为 2011 年 4 月 1 日至 2012 年 12 月 31 日 ) 包含了各 类型公司(如 Glencore trading 和 BHP Billiton 石油公司 , 注解处除外) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mine 2012

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John Gravelle11?40(20114120121231)Glencore trading BHP Billiton , 40Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 1 Highlights2PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx2102013: 2012:2011: 2010:?2009:2008:2007:2006:2005:2004:Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 1 Highlights3PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx37,3106%49%680450108043013%24%5CEO 15% 380 2013 1,100, 201221%20122013417%Mine 2013 A Confidence Crisis4PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx2011 was a year of a great contrast for the mining industry - record profits for the Top 40 of $133 billion (up 26%) but market capitalisation fell by 25%Heightened shareholder calls for capital disciplineTop 40 invested $98 billion in capital projects in 2011 - plan for a further $140 billion for 2012 Continued structural change of high commodity prices, underwritten by higer production costs and lower grades. However, this does not guarantee increasing gross marginsStory for the future will be about bringing on supply through the right projectsThe market doesnt seem to be buying the industrys long-term growth story, sending share prices lower - 2011 has shown the growing disconnect

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Mine 2013 A Confidence Crisis5PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx ... . CEOs . ... Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 2 The market has lost confidence in mining...6PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx6...

Mine 2013 A Confidence Crisis217%85%92%Section 2 The market has lost confidence in mining...7PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx7...2013201212013833%201362013

Mine 2013 A Confidence Crisis(33)%22%16%Section 2 The market has lost confidence in mining...8PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx840Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 3 A look at 2012s Top 40 40 35% 10201253 : 31/12/11 : 94 31/12/12: 89 30/04/13: 55 31/07/13: 58

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9PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptxJOINERSMarket Cap $bn

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth 14.0

KGHM Polska Miedz Spolka Akcyjna 12.1

Minera Frisco 10.9

Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal 9.5

Eldorado Gold 9.3

LEAVERSRandgold8.8

Compania de Minas Buenaventura 3.3

Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation 5.9

Turquoise Hill 9.0

Peabody Energy3.9

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, 3

Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 3 A look at 2012s Top 4010PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx10...?

Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 3 A look at 2012s Top 4011PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx ?20075 BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale, Anglo American, Xstrata 40% () 201263%Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 3 A look at 2012s Top 4012PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx 4050% ...Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 3 A look at 2012s Top 402008, ; 40 . 13PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx... Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 3 A look at 2012s Top 40402013201221%4013% 24% .50% 14PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx14... 13% 7% 3%, 11%

Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 4 Soft prices and increased costs hurt the bottom line...15PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx2011- 2013Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 4 Soft prices and increased costs hurt the bottom line...$/dmt$/oz$/tonne$/tonne2011 1681,5681218,82820121281,670967,962-24%6%-21%-10%2013 1401,593917,646201371271,286776,90716PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptxIron ore did not hit record highs16... 8% : Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 5 but balance sheets remain healthy...17PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx 4% 6820.102011 13% 201224%Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 5 but balance sheets remain healthy...18PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx1040430 40 Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 5 but balance sheets remain healthy...*i40

19PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptxCEO....

CEO,

Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 7 So, how are the Top 40 trying to win back confidence?

/ 20PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx... Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 7 So, how are the Top 40 trying to win back confidence?Andrew McKenzie CEO,BHP Billiton, ,

, 21PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx , 2013, 2014..

Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 8 Outlook IMF Forecast22PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx Mine 2013 A Confidence CrisisSection 8 Outlook 40% ( 82% 50% ). 23PwCDraft21/08/2013 C:\Users\John M Matheson\Documents\06 Mining\50 Mine 2013\40 Report\FINAL VERSION\Presentation slides\Mine 2013_Presentation Slides_ Updated_21 August 2013.pptx201424PwC LLP!25PwC LLP