결정하기 어려운 순간(去住兩難)! [2014.1.21]

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2014. 1. 21 (화) ▶ 기술적 시장분석 결정하기 어려운 순간(去住兩難)! KOSPI, 단기 박스권에서의 방향성 탐색국면 ▶ 관심지표 목표치를 상회한 2013년 중국 성장률 ▶ 산업분석 기계(피팅)[비중확대] – 성기종: 1Q14 터널을 지나다 건설[중립] – 박형렬: 4분기 실적 Preview ▶ 기업분석 호텔신라[매수] – 함승희: 다가올 날들이 더욱 기대되는 세 가지 이유 ▶ 주체별 매매동향 KOSPI: 외국인 (-)262억원 순매도, 국내기관 (+)479억원 순매수 KOSDAQ: 외국인 (+)278억원 순매수, 국내기관 (+)43억원 순매수 ▶ KOSPI200 선물시장 통계 ▶ 주가 지표 코스피지수 (1/20) 1,953.78P(+9.30P) 국고채 수익률 (3년) 2.90(+0.00) 코스닥지수 (1/20) 519.99P(+1.89P) 유가(WTI) (1/20 21:49) 93.96(-0.47) KOSPI200지수 3월물 256.10P(+2.10P) 국내주식형펀드증감(1/17) 104억원 중국상해종합지수 (1/20) 1,991.25P(-13.70P) 해외주식형펀드증감(1/17) -92억원 NIKKEI225지수 (1/20) 15,641.68P(-92.78P) 고객예탁금(1/17) 134,561억원(-2,484억원) 원/달러 환율 1,063.70(+4.00) 신용잔고(1/17) 43,557억원(+185억원) 엔/달러 환율 104.26(-0.06) 대차잔고(1/17) 384,650억원(-4,164억원)

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첫 개장일 이래 KOSPI는 200일선을 중심으로 1,931 ~ 1,965p의 좁은 박스권에서 움직이고 있다. 이 박스권을 어떤 식으로 돌파하느냐가 단기 및 중기 방향성을 결정할 것으로 판단된다. 단기적으로 1,920 ~ 1,990p에서의 움직임이 예상된다. 의약품, 비 금속광물업 등 상승추세업종과 철강금속, 기계, 전기전자(IT), 운수장비업 등 낙폭과대 업종에 대한 관심이 필요해 보인다.

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1. 2014. 1. 21 () ()! KOSPI, 2013 ()[] : 1Q14 [] : 4 Preview [] : KOSPI: (-)262 , (+)479 KOSDAQ: (+)278 , (+)43 KOSPI200 (1/20) 1,953.78P(+9.30P) (1/20) 519.99P(+1.89P) (WTI) (1/20 21:49) KOSPI200 3 256.10P(+2.10P) (1/17) 1,991.25P(-13.70P) (1/17) (1/20) NIKKEI225 (1/20) 15,641.68P(-92.78P) (3) (1/17) 2.90(+0.00) 93.96(-0.47) 104 -92 134,561(-2,484) / 1,063.70(+4.00) (1/17) 43,557(+185) / 104.26(-0.06) (1/17) 384,650(-4,164)
  • 2. 2014.1.21 02-768-2129 [email protected] ()! KOSPI, KOSPI 200 1,931 ~ 1,965p . . 1,920 ~ 1,990p . , , , (IT), . 1 , 1 , , , '4( ) ' . 2014 , , . PBR 1 (KOSPI 1,946p) . KOSPI , KOSDAQ . , . ( ) . WTI KOSPI KOSPI 200 . , KOSPI WTI . , . WTI . KOSPI , WTI 1. KOSPI , WTI (2012=100) KOSPI 120 WTI 110 100 90 80 70 12.1 12.7 : Bloomberg, KDB 13.1 13.7 14.1
  • 3. 2014.1.21 , . (WB) 2014 3.0% 3.2% . 2.4% . . ISM . . 23 PMI . 12 PMI 52.7 DAX 4 . DAX . DAX 20 , . ISM 2. ISM DAX PMI 3. DAX PMI (P) (P) 17000 60 (L) ISM (R) 58 16000 (P) (P) 10000 54 DAX (L) PMI(R) 9000 56 15000 54 52 14000 50 8000 7000 46 50 6000 13000 48 12000 46 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7 5000 42 12.1 14.1 12.7 13.1 : Bloomberg, KDB : Bloomberg, KDB 4. 13.7 225 225 5. 225 (P) 18000 (/) 110 225(L) /(R) 16000 100 14000 90 12000 80 10000 8000 12.11 : Qway NEO, KDB 70 13.3 : Bloomberg, KDB 13.7 13.11
  • 4. 2014.1.21 2000 . , , . 12 '2 ' N . . . 225 . 225 KOSPI . . KOSPI, . KOSPI 200 1,931 ~ 1,965p . KOSPI 6. KOSPI VKOSPI 7. KOSPI (P) (P) 2100 KOSPI(L) 22 VKOSPI(R) 20 2000 18 16 1900 14 1800 12 1700 12.11 10 13.3 13.7 13.11 : KRX, KDB : Qway NEO, KDB KOSDAQ DAQ 8. KOSDAQ KOSDAQ 9. KOSDAQ (P) () (L) 2.5 600 (R) 2.0 550 1.5 1.0 500 0.5 450 0.0 -0.5 400 12.5 12.9 13.1 : KRX, KDB 13.5 13.9 14.1 : Qway NEO, KDB
  • 5. 2014.1.21 . KOSPI . VKOSPI . . VKOSPI KOSPI . KOSPI, 1,920 ~ 1,990p KOSPI . . 1,920 ~ 1,990p . , , , (IT), . , KOSDAQ , 509 ~ 532p V . . 120 . 60 . 509 ~ 532p .
  • 6. 2014.1.21 [] 02-768-3439 [email protected] 2013 2013 GDP 7.7%, 7.5% ; , ; // 2013 GDP 7.5% 1. 2013 GDP 7.7%, 7.5% 2. (%) 10 (%, ) 16 GDP 14 5 12 10 0 8 6 -5 99 02 05 08 09 11 10 11 12 13 : CEIC, KDB : CEIC, KDB , / 3. , / , 4. , (%, ) 80 (%, ,3 ) 150 (3~6 ) 60 60 100 40 40 50 20 20 0 0 -20 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 0 -50 04 07 10 13 : CEIC, KDB : CEIC, KDB 5. // 6. // (%, ) 25 (%,) 80 60 20 40 15 20 0 10 05 07 : CEIC, KDB 09 11 13 08 09 10 : CEIC, KDB 11 12 13
  • 7. () 1Q14 70% . 2 40% . (Maintain) Earnings preview 2014. 1. 21 02-768-3263 [email protected] 2013 . 40~55% 2 25~35% . -> . , . . . . . . . . , . , / . , . , , . . , 1 . 2 . , 29,500, 25,000 . , . . 1. , ('000 ) 200 () 5,000 (R) (R) (L) 160 4,000 (L) 120 3,000 80 2,000 40 1,000 0 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13P 14F : Clarkson, KDB , . . .
  • 8. () 1Q14 1. : 4Q 964 (YoY 8.5%), 198 (YoY 10.5%) 2013 4Q 4 yoy 8.5% 964, yoy 10.5% 198, yoy 12.6% 140 . . 1) / , 2) . . , (STS, Alloy) . . . 2013 11.2% 3,864, 25.6% 907, 29.2% 682 . 2014 2014 0.9% 3,830, 11.4% 804, . 7.6% 823 . 21.0% . 2014 . 1 . . . . 29,500 16.4% . , , , 2014 EPS 2,204 PER 13.5 . 1. 2013 4 Preview (, %, %p) 4Q13F 4Q12 3Q13 89 96 96 103 8.5 0.6 18 23 20 22 10.5 -14.3 KDB Daewoo YoY QoQ 20.2 24.1 20.6 21.4 0.4 -3.6 16 21 18 22 12.8 -10.9 12 16 14 17 12.6 -10.9 : K-IFRS , , : , FnGuide, KDB 2. (, , %, %p) 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 449 497 383.1 408.7 -14.7 -17.8 113 125 80.5 89.1 -28.8 -28.7 115 130 82.3 91.7 -28.4 -29.5 88 99 63 70.2 -28.4 -29.1 3,061 3,473 2,204 2,455 -28.0 -29.3 25.2 25.2 21.0 21.8 -16.5 -13.3 19.6 19.9 16.4 17.2 -16.1 -13.8 EPS () : K-IFRS : , KDB 3. (, %) 2013 2014F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QF 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q QoQ YoY 92 20 22 17 102 28 28 22 96 23 21 16 96 20 18 14 87 17 17 13 97 21 21 16 97 20 20 16 101 22 23 18 0.6 -14.3 -10.9 -10.9 8.5 10.5 12.8 12.6 21.5 18.0 27.5 21.3 24.1 16.5 20.6 14.6 19.6 15.2 21.4 16.9 20.6 16.2 22.2 17.4 : K-IFRS : , KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2012 2013F 2014F 348 72 69 53 386 91 89 68 383 80 82 63 20.8 15.2 23.5 17.7 21.0 16.5
  • 9. () 1Q14 2. : 4 Q 752 (YoY -26.2%), 74 (YoY -32.9%) 4 yoy -26.2% 752, yoy -32.9 % 74, yoy - 2013 4Q 27.2% 51 . . 1) / , 2) . . . . 2013 12.4% 3,127, 15.4% 389, 5.9% 312 . 2014 , 2014 12% 3,503, 33.2% 518, 2Q 34.3% 538 . 14.8% . 2014 . . 1 . . . 25,000 25.4% 2014 2014 EPS 1,678 PER 15 . 4. 2013 4 Preview (, %, %p) 4Q13F 4Q12 3Q13 102 66 75 85 -26.2 11 7 7 11 -32.9 10.6 10.8 10.2 9.9 12.6 -1.0 -0.3 9 5 6 11 -29.5 41.4 7 4 5 8 -27.2 41.4 KDB Daewoo YoY QoQ 14.3 : K-IFRS : , FnGuide, KDB 5. (, , %, %p) 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 433 506 313 350 -27.8 -30.8 77 92 39 52 -49.4 -43.6 80 98 89 54 11.4 -45.0 62 75 31 42 -49.7 -44.1 2,462 3,012 1,678 2,141 -31.9 -28.9 17.8 18.2 12.5 14.8 -30.0 -18.6 14.3 14.8 10.0 12.0 -30.3 -19.2 EPS () : K-IFRS : , KDB 6. (, %) 2013 2014F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QF 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q QoQ YoY 82 11 13 10 90 14 16 12 66 7 5 4 75 7 6 5 73 9 10 8 92 15 16 12 86 14 13 10 99 14 15 12 14.3 10.6 41.4 41.4 -26.2 -32.9 -29.5 -27.2 13.3 12.2 15.5 13.8 10.2 5.5 9.9 6.8 11.9 10.7 16.3 13.6 16.5 11.6 14.1 11.8 2012 2013F 2014 357 46 43 33 313 39 40 31 350 52 54 42 12.9 9.3 12.5 10.0 14.8 12.0 : K-IFRS ; : , KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research
  • 10. () 1Q14 2. (%) 3. () (R) 35 450 (L) 400 30 (%) () (R) 35 450 (L) 400 30 350 350 25 25 300 300 250 15 20 250 200 20 15 200 150 150 10 10 100 100 5 50 0 0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 5 50 0 0 06 15 07 08 09 10 11 12 : Fnguide, KDB 14 15 : Fnguide, KDB 4. 13 5. (%) () (R) 30 120 (L) (%) () (R) 20 120 (L) 18 25 100 20 80 100 16 14 80 12 15 60 10 60 8 10 40 5 20 40 6 4 20 2 0 0 1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 1Q15 0 0 1Q12 4Q15 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14 : Fnguide, KDB 4Q15 : Fnguide, KDB 6. / 1Q15 7. / (-1Y=100) 130 (PER,x) 15 13 110 11 9 90 7 70 13.01 (ROE,%) 5 13.03 13.05 13.07 : Fnguide, KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research 13.09 13.11 14.01 9 11 13 : Fnguide, KDB 15 17 19
  • 11. 4 Preview (Maintain) 4 4 . 1) Earnings Preview 2014. 1. 21 02-768-4165 [email protected] , 2) , 3) . , , . 2014 2008 . , 4 . PF . 2014 2014 , . Macro( , ) .. 13 4.3( ) -0.4 . 14 , 2.6 . Bottom Risk (2014 1 13 65% ) . 2 , Band trading , . 2014 () 6 5 4 3 2.6, : : 2 1 0 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.10 14.1 : WISEfn, KDB , . . .
  • 12. 4 Preview 4 : n 4 : 4 . 1) , 2) , 3) . , , . , . 1) : 2014 , . . 2) : 2008 . , 4 . PF . 3) : , , . 1. 4 vs. () 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 GS : FnGuide, KDB 1. 7 4 2013 (, %, %p) 4Q13F YoY QoQ Difference 2013F 23,660.7 4.7 1,322.0 5.6 -214.0 -0.9 -390.9 -348.8 -1.5 6.2% -3.6 23.9 0.8 -127.6 -4.4 -192.9 -212.3 -2.9 15.4% 1.2 30.5 0.6 -27.5 0.5 5.1 24.3 -0.1 20,500.5 3.5 1,012.8 4.9 -295.3 -1.4 -372.0 -280.7 -1.4 22,270.5 8.3 1,067.0 4.8 774.9 3.5 420.7 310.7 1.4 23,722.6 -62.0 365.7 1.5 474.0 414.1 1.7 -579.7 -2.4 -864.9 -762.9 -3.2 84,730.8 4.7 4,388.3 5.2 -433.2 -0.5 -761.6 -787.5 -0.9 : FnGuide, KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research
  • 13. 4 Preview 2. 4 14 4 - 800 : 270, 530 2014 - 1,100 (2013 1,400 ) - : 800, DSA 720 (2013 DSA 1,100 ) - 2014 DSA 250 ( 91.4% ) - 200 - 68 - GK 380 - UAE - KOC pipeline 5 : - 330 - : PF ( ) ( 8 PF ) - 141 - 0.3~0.4 - : - 17 - - 20 200 - (200/ ) - (, ) - 59 - 1,300 ( ) - vs. Change order , 14 1 - 2(PF ) 300~400 - 700~800 - 1 : 500 - SOC 300 - PF : 100% - 140 GS - 4 260 - PF - 120 - - - - 4 14 - 2, , - 160 - GK 850 : KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research
  • 14. 4 Preview : 2014 n 2013 . 1 1) , 2) , 3) , 4) . n 2014 1) PF 20~30% , 2) / , 3) . 4 . , 2014 . 3. 2013 List GS () Oil Company NO.1 U.A.E 3 Ruwais Refinery Expansion Project - PKG 2 Ruwais Refinery Expansion Project - PKG 7 IPC EVA BlackGold Project Takreer Inter Refinery Pipeline -2 CO2 Compression Ma'aden Aluminum Rolling Mill Dow-Mitsui Falcon Project TAKREER RRE Utilities & Offsite Shaybah Increase Gas Handling Shaybah NGL Power Generation Shaybah #1 Inlet & Gas Treatment Shaybah NGL #2 Recovery & Utilities Takreer Carbon Black & Delayed Coker JED (JERP #4 Coker Units) JERP #3 Aromatics Units 07/2010 07/2011 12/2009 12/2009 12/2010 08/2010 10/2010 04/2011 02/2011 11/2010 12/2009 03/2011 03/2011 03/2011 03/2011 07/2012 07/2009 07/2009 (3Q) 05/2014 01/2014 02/2014 02/2014 10/2013 01/2014 03/2014 01/2014 03/2014 09/2013 02/2014 05/2014 03/2014 06/2014 07/2014 01/2016 07/2013 08/2013 (3Q) 1,621 1,089 3,541 620 174 558 718 108 946 461 3,101 1,157 616 682 788 2,843 487 771 200 40 452 45 0 245 227 28 83 29 219 216 70 157 238 2,550 30 12 : , KDB 4. : 2014 () 12 PF GS : , KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3Q13 988.1 1,600.0 637.3 2,100.0 76.1 2,200.0 PF 870.0 1,000.0 385.4 1,400.0 1,400.0 1,029.4 1,648.9 625.9 1,819.8 287.7 2,189.2 870.0 1,000.0 413.6 1,400.0 1,137.6
  • 15. 4 Preview 2014 , 2 2014 2 . 2014 2 . 1) , 2) , 3) . 2014 Valuation , (, ) . 2. 2014 () 6 5 4 3 2.6, : : 2 1 0 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.10 14.1 : WISEfn, KDB 3. 2013 () 5 4 3 2 1 0 13.1 -0.4 13.4 13.7 13.10 14.1 : WISEfn, KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research
  • 16. (008770) / 4Q13 review: 60(-73.4% YoY), 68 4Q13 5,875(+6.4% YoY) 60(- Company Report 2014.1.21 73.4% YoY) 5,693 68 . 85 126 . (Maintain) 30 -13 (, 12M) 95,000 . . (14/01/20,) 77,200 2014 upside catalysts 23% 2013 2014 upside catalysts . 89 97 , . 4 5.1 147.2 12.1 1,953.78 +20.7% key driver . 2, 3 2.9% . 3,030 40 81.5 40.7 0.06 41,450 77,200 . 12 83.4 86.6 (3Q 6.5%4Q 2.2%) . (13F,) Consensus (13F,) EPS (13F,%) MKT EPS (13F,%) P/E (13F,x) MKT P/E (13F,x) KOSPI () () (%) (%) (12M) 52 () 52 () (%) 190 1 15.2 17.0 6 13.9 9.1 +12.0% . , 2014 . 2013 2014 . -110 204 . , . 4Q13 4Q12 , . 1 1,055 5.5% . KOSPI 170 . 95,000 150 130 110 . 2014 , 90 70 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.1 . 95,000 . [/, /] 02-768-4172 [email protected] (12) () () (%) () EPS () ROE (%) P/E () P/B () 12/10 1,440 81 5.6 49 1,235 9.0 22.5 2.0 12/11 1,764 96 5.4 56 1,401 9.6 27.5 2.7 : K-IFRS , : , KDB 12/12 2,190 129 5.9 101 2,535 15.8 17.3 2.6 12/13F 2,275 89 3.9 18 452 2.6 147.2 4.0 12/14F 2,702 192 7.1 135 3,371 18.2 22.9 4.0 12/15F 3,010 289 9.6 222 5,542 24.8 13.9 3.2
  • 17. 4Q13 Review 4Q13 review: 60(-73.4% YoY), (68) (1) : 5,180(+8.8% YoY), 113(+2.2% YoY), 2.2% 4 +3.7% . . . 6.5% 2.2% . . 2014 . (2) /: 695(-8.7% YoY), -53 70% . 5 -3 , 50 -53 . 30 . 2013 one-off , 2014 . 1. 4Q13 review (, %) 4Q12 3Q13 552.1 22.5 4.1 22.0 16.7 680.0 40.3 5.9 25.5 19.6 4Q13P KDB 587.5 6.0 1.0 -1.3 -1.5 569.3 6.8 1.2 4.9 3.7 602.9 12.6 2.1 9.0 6.9 YoY QoQ 6.4 -73.4 -13.6 -85.1 TTR TTR -105.1 -107.8 : K-IFRS : , KDB 2. 4Q13 (, %) 4Q13P + + + : K-IFRS : , KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB 587.5 69.5 518.0 6.0 -5.3 11.3 1.0 -7.6 2.2 569.3 77.9 493.7 6.8 -2.4 9.2 1.2 -3.0 1.9 3.2 -10.8 4.9 -11.8 N/A 23.1
  • 18. 3. (, %) 13F 13F 14F 2,257 89 24 19 2,699 193 179 136 13F 2,275 88 23 18 2,702 192 177 135 14F 0.8 -0.9 -3.4 -3.5 14F 0.1 - 4Q13 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 : KDB 4. / (, %, , ) 1Q12 + + + Growth (YoY) + + Profitability + [] 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13P 11 12 13F 14F 487 67 420 556 71 486 595 78 517 552 76 476 473 34 439 534 36 498 680 69 611 588 70 518 1,764 263 1,501 2,190 291 1,898 2,275 209 2,067 2,702 346 2,356 13.7 86.3 31 5 26 28 21 12.7 87.3 41 7 34 51 39 13.1 86.9 35 6 29 33 25 13.8 86.2 23 7 15 22 17 7.2 92.8 9 -5 13 -25 -19 6.7 93.3 34 -1 35 19 14 10.1 89.9 40 1 40 25 20 11.8 88.2 6 -5 11 4 3 14.9 85.1 96 31 65 74 56 13.3 86.7 129 25 104 133 101 9.2 90.8 88 -11 100 23 18 12.8 87.2 192 20 172 177 135 32.1 17.8 34.7 107.2 35.0 129.7 96.5 77.6 38.0 9.6 43.4 229.8 -19.4 780.4 481.5 602.5 23.4 9.2 25.9 5.9 -50.7 40.5 53.5 49.9 8.0 7.3 8.2 -37.0 22.3 -49.2 -25.3 -24.8 -2.8 -48.6 4.5 -72.3 TTR -48.5 TTR TTR -4.0 -49.0 2.6 -17.8 TTR 2.6 -63.7 -63.3 14.4 -11.7 18.3 15.3 -91.9 38.7 -21.6 -20.7 6.4 -8.7 8.8 -73.3 TTR -25.1 -81.2 -81.2 21.5 10.7 23.6 23.2 110.3 3.1 12.3 12.7 24.1 10.6 26.5 34.6 -18.5 59.5 81.5 81.0 3.9 -28.4 8.8 -31.6 TTR -4.5 -82.6 -82.1 18.8 65.9 14.0 117.1 TTB 72.5 662.4 643.4 6.3 7.2 6.2 5.7 4.3 7.4 9.8 7.0 9.2 7.0 5.9 8.0 5.6 5.5 4.2 4.1 9.7 3.2 4.0 3.0 1.8 -14.3 3.1 -5.3 -4.0 6.3 -3.6 7.0 3.5 2.7 5.9 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.9 1.0 -7.6 2.2 0.7 0.5 5.4 11.7 4.4 4.2 3.2 5.9 8.6 5.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 -5.3 4.8 1.0 0.8 7.1 5.9 7.3 6.6 5.0 1,132 3,370 2,481 899 525 1,152 3,225 2,857 918 667 1,133 3,700 3,099 955 965 1,090 3,442 2,703 746 680 1,085 3,725 2,580 713 723 1,123 3,504 2,951 627 1,013 1,111 4,020 3,721 726 1,696 1,060 3,752 3,088 672 932 1,108 12,694 9,795 3,289 2,220 1,127 13,737 11,140 3,519 2,837 1,094 15,001 12,340 2,737 4,363 1,055 16,082 14,929 2,833 6,147 ` : , KTO, KATA, KDB KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research
  • 19. 2014. 1. 21 02-768-2601 [email protected] KOSPI / () (: ) ( 478.9 / 5 403.7) 5 () 5 -632.6 432.8 ( -262.0 / 5 -2203.1) 5 207.2 -372.5 -139.2 192.2 207.6 -61.8 141.8 -390.6 -57.1 -244.9 63.3 247.6 104.2 648.9 -39.6 -125.2 55.4 114.1 74.5 -112.8 -32.0 -302.8 31.3 107.5 160.4 () 5 9.8 KODEX 294.2 -197.9 91.1 5 -462.0 -1,217.8 -202.8 -1,107.6 -178.8 -347.7 -62.6 -378.2 -30.9 -226.3 () -132.4 5 155.8 388.5 5 5 560.1 KODEX 200 -424.4 65.9 KODEX 200 468.8 KODEX 213.1 -49.2 SK -130.0 -673.0 67.4 417.5 -251.4 -1,048.2 176.8 270.4 -106.1 339.1 CJ 65.0 208.4 -143.4 198.9 148.7 -113.7 -79.7 105.0 380.7 -71.8 -206.7 NAVER 58.7 13.4 -106.7 SK 17.7 -143.2 -519.8 56.9 -285.4 -132.0 -836.6 80.0 120.8 -71.1 73.3 100.3 -49.8 53.0 -16.6 SK 51.9 SK 66.7 -1,963.1 -39.3 -73.9 43.5 32.0 -65.9 -10.2 64.7 91.3 -37.8 -124.0 42.6 11.7 -58.2 -103.4 63.7 72.6 -35.8 -94.1 38.7 -56.6 -82.3 343.0 GS 107.9 -28.9 POSCO -102.1 -45.6 -66.6 -138.8 KOSDAQ / () (: ) ( 42.9 / 5 -145.5) 5 -112.6 () 5 5 5 113.5 -62.4 -95.3 -31.0 97.8 IT 38.4 94.9 -34.5 -22.2 59.3 74.5 IT -31.0 -78.1 24.3 27.5 . -30.2 -26.7 39.6 27.1 -22.7 -98.3 24.2 -23.1 -76.8 29.9 . 21.3 -20.5 187.8 . 26.6 87.7 -86.6 29.2 -174.1 21.9 26.5 18.4 47.9 SK 18.0 23.1 () 5 306.0 -322.3 257.3 ( 277.8 / 5 951.4) 9.5 34.2 . -16.3 3.0 -11.7 163.7 5 -144.7 () -43.5 5 5 -33.4 241.3 192.9 -31.8 -25.8 19.7 37.8 203.0 -17.8 6.4 -24.1 -32.6 CJ 28.4 47.3 -14.5 -9.4 -18.7 46.0 20.5 25.7 -13.7 4.3 8.2 -18.4 10.9 SK 16.0 27.6 -12.7 17.3 16.8 8.7 CJ -17.8 -21.7 GS 14.0 -132.4 -10.6 6.9 14.4 45.1 -17.7 -74.8 13.4 134.6 -9.8 3.0 12.1 -9.7 -13.0 15.0 13.2 -8.4 52.2 63.2 JYP Ent. -13.0 86.3 12.2 -9.7 43.9 10.7 GS 11.9 AP 11.3 -44.2 , 5: CHECK ( , 5), 5 (-) -0.3 IPS 156.7 74.6 -8.2 -8.2 -6.9 -11.4
  • 20. 2014. 1. 21 KOSPI (: ) KODEX 200 28,497.1 -7,808.1 9,990.7 -7,608.1 8,088.1 SK -7,606.1 6,196.7 SK -4,011.0 7,261.7 -6,422.5 5,321.1 CJ -3,208.1 TIGER 6,060.8 -4,889.1 3,368.6 -2,433.8 5,008.2 -4,702.0 3,326.9 S-Oil -2,411.6 4,800.1 SDI -4,404.0 2,958.3 -2,310.3 4,160.3 -4,310.5 2,147.6 -1,906.8 3,994.4 -3,730.1 2,049.1 SK -1,742.7 TIGER 3,793.4 -3,022.9 1,861.0 -1,700.9 3,201.8 TIGER -3,016.5 1,843.4 -1,533.0 12,164.7 -1,583.1 6,360.2 TIGER 200 -6,896.9 4,371.3 -2,443.8 KODEX 200 SK 1,316.9 SK C&C -653.5 KODEX 604.1 -619.7 4,260.1 SK -2,143.5 559.7 -501.7 3,868.7 -1,991.9 558.8 -468.3 KODEX 200 3,593.2 -1,916.5 553.9 KT -386.1 1,889.8 -1,831.1 KB 373.1 SK -347.6 1,503.4 SK -1,684.5 347.2 POSCO -340.4 1,495.5 SK -1,419.0 265.4 LG -330.0 KB 1,374.2 -1,350.9 LG 248.5 -320.4 1,223.6 KT&G -1,178.2 KOSPI / (: ) KODEX 2,603.7 21,309.8 3,874.5 17,677.8 SK 5,296.1 6,674.3 527.6 3,783.3 4,259.0 6,467.8 LG 200.8 2,961.5 2,421.6 2,736.4 728.2 2,627.9 448.7 38,852.6 4,673.7 LG 4,359.3 SDI 1,056.5 SK 12.6 7,176.5 4,386.1 4,979.3 LG 3,336.1 833.7 2,074.1 LG 3,774.0 684.6 648.8 2,045.0 4,345.3 160.4 2,866.9 299.3 5,694.2 66.6 13,203.8 44.2 , (-)
  • 21. 2014. 1. 21 KOSDAQ (: ) 6,101.0 -3,229.3 1,615.6 CJ -2,246.1 2,073.6 CJ -2,800.4 1,171.5 -1,080.2 1,886.2 -1,918.4 657.1 KH -921.2 KH 1,499.8 SK -1,653.1 421.0 S&C -647.8 1,420.4 -1,200.2 381.4 -623.8 1,040.1 -1,059.4 374.7 -590.7 AP 749.8 JYP Ent. -882.7 314.6 -439.6 718.1 -851.5 311.6 -424.6 IPS 579.3 -682.5 276.2 -407.9 490.3 -605.3 269.1 -387.8 97.2 -517.0 GS 1,081.4 -2,247.5 92.3 -404.8 978.4 CJ -846.9 88.7 CJ E&M -322.1 943.9 -461.6 87.0 -238.5 865.2 -233.1 68.0 -205.3 855.8 -229.7 ICT 56.1 -146.9 415.8 -218.1 49.9 AP -92.6 400.5 SBS -196.3 KG 47.5 -75.7 364.7 -168.9 44.0 -72.2 236.6 -163.1 43.3 -71.9 182.6 SK -153.2 KOSDAQ / (: ) 24,126.7 8,772.6 55.7 2,579.7 1,221.9 1,442.1 1,056.8 1,839.1 GS 1,398.8 1,185.8 1,777.4 1,300.4 440.2 957.7 JYP Ent. 116.1 1,298.6 83.2 694.0 654.1 633.9 38.0 561.1 (Reg.S) 16.5 417.7 144.6 99.4 319.0 507.6 287.6 312.6 487.0 484.0 260.1 658.4 249.3 ICT , (-) 58.2 418.5 93.4 1,365.9 65.2
  • 22. KOSPI200 2014.1.21 02-768-4120 [email protected] KDB (www.kdbdw.com) AI/ KDB (www.kdbdw.com) > > > AI/ > KO S P I 200 1403 1406 1409 KS P J3J6S 253.46 254.00 255.60 257.70 1.55 253.66 253.90 255.85 257.15 1.55 255.06 256.25 257.50 257.15 1.60 252.00 252.45 254.15 257.15 1.50 254.81 256.10 257.25 257.15 1.55 1.35 2.10 1.65 -0.55 - 255.79 257.45 259.02 1.66 * 46,482 165,150 88 1 187 ** 2,158,008 21,034,264 11,265 129 47,769 - 105622 (-2204) 1981 (166) 253 (9) - 0.00 0.02 0.14 - 1.24 1.09 - *** 2.65% (CD) 0.00 0.961 0.309 : (* , ** *** ) = / , KSPJ3J6S : 3 6 1 , (: ) 81,243 47,828 31,842 107 2,358 313 1,460 87 76,355 49,031 36,140 236 1,768 298 1,308 101 4,888 -1,203 -4,298 -129 -5,280 -2,120 -1,529 -193 -1.24% -6.32% 14.30% 2.45% 47.7% 3.10% 29.3% 20.6% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 590 15 152 -14 9,229 -37.61% 0.2% -361 55 200 5.49% -7.45% : (%)=(/(+))X 100, ETF () () T I G ER 200 155 0.61% 694 17,810 KO DEX 200 155 0.61% 7,104 181,927 T I G ER 200 KO DEX 200 258.21 256.10 1.56 /100 257.55 257.05 e f f .d e l t a 1.15 1.15 3.44 d i f f /b a s i s 1.08% 0.88% 1.33% 1.29 41.73% T I G ER 200 KO DEX 200 NA V 10.86% (ET F -NA V )% T /E 258.66 () 3.40 25,788 25,743 -0.13% -0.15% 0.01% 0.01% 350 900 () 1,000 400 3.85 () 95,150 168,800 1 : effective delta() = ETF /KOSPI200 2 : = (C-P)+X exp[-rt], = (C-P)exp[rt]+X , , -- 3 : / - KOSPI200 /, 4 : TE(tracking error)=[(NAV /(KOSPI200X 100))-1]X 100(%)
  • 23. KOSPI200 2014.1.21 (%) 0.128 (%) 0.134 (5,%) 7.7 1402 0.122 (%) (20,%) 12 1403 260.0 257.5 255.0 252.5 250.0 257.5 255.0 252.5 1.41 2.34 3.65 5.10 7.00 4.40 5.70 7.00 (p) (p) 0.57 0.89 1.05 1.35 0.70 1.10 0.80 12.10 12.50 13.20 13.40 14.40 13.40 13.70 13.50 () 153,892 125,825 49,873 11,228 3,025 62 47 14 () (p) 25,497 17,068 8,369 4,223 2,953 210 463 96 (p) (%) -1.70 10.30 -1.45 11.30 -1.20 11.80 -0.93 12.20 -0.72 12.70 -1.15 12.90 -0.80 13.10 -0.80 13.60 () 1,671 5,111 12,606 64,068 113,779 47 66 79 () Put 0.34 (%) Ca l l 2,746 3,029 7,707 12,929 22,796 142 1,863 362 : , CHECK II Ca l l (: ) 460,466 235,223 229,343 0 145 58 7,817 246 459,765 240,913 224,199 0 145 39 7,949 294 49.3% 0.0% 0.0% 701 -5,690 5,144 0 0 19 -132 -48 12,855 12,630 -19,048 -10 -1,410 -1,689 -3,340 -17 Put 25.5% 24.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 457,575 203,292 81,293 0 250 206 257 5,023 459,069 195,406 88,113 0 250 186 244 4,628 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1,494 7,886 -6,820 0 0 20 13 395 4,188 -4,456 2,366 0 -121 -40 76 -2,013 61.3% 26.7% 11.3% 0.0% 0.6% : P UT CA L L ( ) 5,621,828 9,162,943 9,246,464 5,624,332 - - - - 5,621,828 9,162,943 9,246,464 5,624,332 - - 0 - 0 - 0 0 ( , ) (%) (%) (%) (%) 330 0.12 19,095 0.68 328 0.12 17,038 0.60 12,475 4.52 375,489 13.28 11,777 4.27 451,398 15.97 12,806 4.64 394,584 13.96 12,105 4.39 468,436 16.57 (p ) 1.425 1.325 1.225 1.125 1.025 0.925 0.825 0.725 94 483 1001 553 1326 1472 478 -149 : 1
  • 24. 2014.1.21 02-768-4155 [email protected] 01/20 () 01/17 () 01/16 () 01/15 () 01/14 () 1,944.48 1,957.32 1,953.28 1,946.07 1,967.20 1,968.24 1,969.30 1,969.49 1,969.97 60 1,993.65 1,995.02 1,996.88 1,998.48 2,000.13 120 1,953.78 20 1,974.92 1,974.51 1,973.97 1,973.26 1,972.61 99.32 98.79 99.39 99.18 98.79 20 60 98.02 97.74 97.30 34,814.1 38,310.6 35,217.7 0.29 0.30 0.33 0.31 50 20 50 50 40 40 110.50 ADR 97.47 33,345.4 0.25 98.00 28,704.6 () 113.19 110.13 106.63 107.89 93.60 92.19 90.79 89.56 88.32 102.98 99.55 129.21 121.07 121.37 01/20 () 01/17 () 01/16 () 01/15 () 01/14 () 519.99 518.10 517.83 515.97 512.27 20 504.22 502.43 500.81 499.23 497.84 60 508.60 508.79 508.91 509.14 509.37 120 521.47 521.66 521.86 522.06 522.27 20 103.13 103.12 103.40 103.35 102.90 60 102.24 101.83 101.75 101.34 100.57 16,199.7 17,595.3 18,292.3 18,723.8 16,257.7 1.30 1.42 1.48 1.52 1.32 80 80 80 70 70 116.80 121.04 117.73 113.22 110.70 93.29 91.30 89.37 87.67 86.03 302.46 295.83 285.85 275.59 203.44 01/20 () 01/17 () 01/16 () 01/15 () 01/14 () (3, %) 2.90 2.90 2.89 2.91 2.90 AA- (3, %) 3.33 3.32 3.32 3.34 3.34 / () 1,063.70 1,059.70 1,063.40 1,062.70 1,059.10 /100 () 1,021.23 1,015.14 1,014.99 1,017.33 1,024.97 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.48 2.49 (, ETF) - 104 319 305 345 (, ETF) - -92 73 -57 -19 () - 156 142 68 -195 () - 3,250 -940 -413 -7 MMF () - 768,985 770,306 747,219 734,380 () - 134,561 137,045 141,974 146,210 () - -2,234 -4,276 -4,347 7,495 () - 1,629 1,580 1,586 1,655 () - 43,557 43,372 43,185 43,000 VR () ADR VR CALL(%) 20