Country Study: IndonesiaPopulation, Family Planning Policy, Demographic Dividend, and Development in Indonesia

Muhamad Sowwam

AgendaIndonesia at a glancePopulation Problem In Indonesia

and some Lessons from the book and its Policy suggestion

Demographic Dividend

Indonesia at a glanceArea: total: 1,904,569 sq km land: 1,811,569 sq km water: 93,000 sq km

Indonesia comprised of more than 17.000 islands

Population: 240,271,522 (July 2009 est.)

Population Density: 132.6/km2

Distribution matters?

Demographic Indicators

  2005-2009 2015-2020annual population 

growth 1.26% 0.99%

TFR 2.3 2.1

IMR 41.6 29.2Number of birth/year 4524 million 4325 million

replacement level 1.07 0.98

expectation of life 66.8 69.9

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Republic of Indonesia

Problems 1 Highly concentrated people in

some regions ◦Almost 70% people lived in java island◦Agricultural land conversion;

considering that java is one of the most fertilize land in Indonesia food insecurity

High population growth rate◦The family planning program was tends

to be ineffective since 1990sincrease the Indonesia growth rate

Population Density: Indonesia

Unequally distributed: almost 70% people lived in java

Number of Households Below Poverty Line

Population is not solely the problem of numbers,; distribution matters

Percentage of Poor Peoples

Papua is the highest region with high percentage of poor peoples; still java has high percentage of poor people

1. High concentrated peopleSome lessons from the book:

◦ It is not the number of people per se that is causing population problems but their distribution in space.

◦ Many regions in Indonesia under populated for instance, eastern region Indonesia (caused by the availability of resources)

◦ Others simply have too many people concentrated in too small area, java

Policy suggestion◦ Redistribute people to the other

regions/transmigration that take into account the diversity of ethnicity.

◦ Regional development outside java to either attract people to migrate from java or to prevent migration in to java.

High population growthTo reduce the population growth Indonesia

need to control its fertility rate with adopting the family planning program.

Indonesia has achieved one of the most impressive records in fertility reduction over the past two decades. The country's total fertility rate has declined from an estimated 5.5 in 1967-1970 to 3.4 in 1987

National Family Planning Coordinating Board (BKKBN) is a public sector organization responsible for planning and coordination of almost all family planning activities in Indonesia.

Program stages The program employed a clinic-based design and was highly

dependent on Ministry of Health inputs (Hull and Hull 1986). Family planning outreach services were provided by mobile teams staffed by medical and paramedical personnel.

After the implementation of the second five year planning in 1974, BKKBN became more community-based. Under the current system, each village has a village contraceptive distribution center (VCDC).

Villages have primary health care and family planning volunteers. Most villages also have Family Welfare Groups(PKK) which meet on a monthly basis.

Proposed new strategy is know as KB mandiri or "family planning self-sufficient” strives to redirect the attitudes and behavior patterns of individual family members.

1988 , Another new orientation is the Gerakan masyarakat keluarga berencana” or the "community family planning movement.“ develop a program whereby community members such as villages head, religious and cultural leaders to promote the program.

Family planning programSome lessons from the book that

related to the success of the program (reduce the fertility rate):◦The increase of opportunity cost of

women in Indonesia (Becker, 1976) the development of manufacture industry in 1970.

◦The increase years of schooling of women in Indonesia (Ageles, Guilkey, and Mroz 2005)

Other lessons from the book1) From the empirical argument;

population growth has negative relationship with income per capita.• Demographic transition:

Declining fertility reduce the proportion of young unproductive ages (<15 years)

Declining infant mortality increase the number of infants who survive to older ages

Leading to change in population age structure Explosion of work ages proportion; Age

dependency ratio declined substantially

Demographic Transition and Explosion of Working Age and Per Capita GDP in Indonesia

Source: Blane D lewis, demographic transition and economic growth in Indonesia

Death and fertility rate

Inverse Dependency Ratio

Percapita GDP

Confirm the book that population growth has negative relationship with income per capita

Demographic BonusChanges in age structure leading to

economic bonus of demographyThe road to the opening of windows of opportunity

Windows of opportunity◦The Indonesian windows of opportunity will

open in 2020-2030◦Age dependency ratio at its lowest level 44

young population compared to 100 workers◦Once in a lifetime◦ Increase again after 2030 due to rapid

increase of older population

Age dependency ratio per 100 working age population

1971 2000 2020-2030 >2030

86 54 <50>50 Increase again due to rapid increase 

of elder people

100)6415(

)65()15( xP

PPratiodependency

Demographic Dividend: Indonesia Window of opportunity

Windows of opportunity assumptions:

The reduction Total fertility rate 1.86 per woman and infant mortality 18.9 per 1000 births in 2030. can be achieved.

Potential ConsequencesAbundant workers with productive

employment will increase income per capita

Increase in household saving lead to productive investment to open employment

Small family value provides opportunity for women to enter labor marketincrease household incomes

Large number of good quality human capital is an asset to economic growth

Current problems related to Windows of Opportunity IssueLacking in employment

opportunityDeclining workers in the formal

sector; increasing numbers of worker in the informal sector

Low education of the labor forceLow incomeHigh percent population under

poverty line

Who will be in the labor force when the windows of opportunity open in 2020-2030?

1) Those born between 1955-2004 who already in the labor force ad children born in between 2005-2015 who will be in the force (new entrance).

2) children aged 15 years old who already in the labor market will be there until aged 65 or die.How many are they?

What should Indonesia do to anticipate the opening of windows of opportunity?

Policy suggestions: ◦ Revitalize the family planning program to ensure

the population growth rate. Increase the persuasion approach not “coercion” approach to minimize the trauma.

◦ Delay marriage age and preparation to enter marriage and family.

◦ Distribute the resources (particularly food) to reduce food insecurity and child malnutrition in some regions.

◦ Developing good quality of human capital; Need a concerted effort to increase better nutrition and health, high quality of education, knowledge and technology, language and communication ability.

Thank You

Refferences:

Blane D. Lewis. “Demographic Transition and Economic Growth In Indonesia”. NUS.

Dov Chernichovsky, et all. “The Indonesia Family planning Program: an economic perspective.” Population and human resources departement. World Bank. 1991

Iwu Dwisetyani utomo, et all. “Village family planning volunteers in indonesia: their role in the family planning programme”. Reproductive health matters journal. 2006

gustavo angeles, david.guilkey, and thomas a. mroz “The Effects of Education and Family Planning Programson Fertility in Indonesia” University of Chicago. 2005

Sri moertiningsih. Bonus Demografi menjelaskan pertumbuhan penduduk dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi (demographic dividend explanation the relationship between economic growth and population growth). Pengukuhan Guru besar FEUI. 2005