1

3462

104 8 20

2

2

3

GDP

%

/GDP 69.6 51.6 187.6 24.0 18.7 13.5

/GDP 58.8 44.0 142.0 21.7 15.2 9.4

/GDP 10.8 7.6 45.6 2.2 3.5 4.1

/GDP 129.2 97.2 350.9 45.2 40.2 29.8

GDP () 1.0 2.7 0.6 19.5 8.7 32.9

GDP (2014 )

GDP 1.2.

IFS IHS Global Insight

4

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

-60

-30

0

30

60

2000Q1 2003Q1 2006Q1 2009Q1 2012Q1 2015Q2

()

% %

0.82

IHS Global Insight

5

IMF 1

1. 1/3

2.

(1) 5

(2)

1986~2000 GDP 1% 2.18%

2001~2013GDP1%1.31%

2013GDP1%0.7%

1990 GDP

2000

Constantinescu et al. (2015)

1

(1)

(2)

6

2000 GDP

2000

2 1993 60%

2012 35%

World Bank (2015) What Lies Behind the Global Trade Slowdown?

Global Economic Prospects, January.

% (=/)

60%

35%

7

3

1. 2014 1,250

2. 2015 2025

3~5 3

1.

2.

IEK (2015/08)

8

1. 1IC 2 50%

2.

1.

2.

3.

IC

1.

2.

1.

2.

3.

1.

2.

3.

LED

IEK(2015/08)

/

9

1.

-13.4

-12.5

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q1

Q2

%

10

0.364

0.422

0.441 0.426

0.314

0.306

0.349

0.307

0.285

0.308

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

2000 2005 2010 2015/1-6

%

() 38.9 30.9 20.1

18.3 14.0 27.3

12.4 13.6 7.3

6.7 5.1 4.0

World Trade Atlas

2. 38.9%30.9%

20.1%

(2015 2 )

11

-4.4

-11.3

-5.2

31.3

-2.7 -1.2 -4.8

-21.0

-12.5

-6.9

-13.0

6.6

-13.3 -13.2

9.4

-17.1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2015Q1 2015Q2

%

2015Q2

(%) (2.9) (4.8) (1.1) (12.5) (47.2) (6.0) (18.5)

1. 2

13.2% 13.3%

2. 12

20%

12

0.349

0.368

0.320

0.340

0.410

0.388

0.416

0.433

0.491

0.380

0.392

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

2000 2005 2010 2015/1-6

%

4.7 6.7 22.3

6.6 6.6 14.9

7.7 6.7 5.7

4.1 2.8 0.2

9.1 8.7 1.7

10.5 12.2 13.3

39.9 25.3 17.0

4.1 20.4 1.6

() 6.7 6.4 4.9

FTA ITA

39.9%

25.3%17.0%

(2015 2 )

13

: %

2015/(p) 2.14 3.19 -1.29 0.59 -1.89 1.06 2.27 2.43

(3.21) (2.64) (-1.01) (1.47) (-5.39) (2.79) (4.55) (2.44)

(f) 1.01 2.92 -1.53 2.60 -3.23 4.26 0.52 1.52

(3.34) (2.89) (-1.44) (2.50) (-7.31) (5.27) (4.83) (3.28)

2015 (f) 1.56 3.05 -1.42 1.62 -2.68 2.65 1.35 1.96

(3.28) (2.76) (-1.24) (2.00) (-6.52) (4.02) (4.69) (2.88)

: (5/22)

:

1.56%

5 3.28% 1.72

14

: %

2015/Q1 (r) 3.84 3.53 -2.66 -0.20 -11.55 1.76 6.13 2.71

Q2 (p) 0.52 2.85 0.05 1.33 6.05 0.38 -1.30 2.15

(3.05) (2.75) (0.14) (2.54) (-0.06) (3.11) (3.27) (2.41)

Q3 (f) 0.10 2.94 -1.42 4.14 3.21 4.36 -0.39 1.64

(3.14) (2.80) (-1.15) (2.49) (-5.53) (4.21) (5.38) (3.57)

Q4 (f) 1.90 2.90 -1.64 1.04 -7.60 4.14 1.39 1.40

(3.53) (2.98) (-1.72) (2.51) (-8.50) (6.48) (4.29) (2.99)

2015 (f) 1.56 3.05 -1.42 1.62 -2.68 2.65 1.35 1.96

(3.28) (2.76) (-1.24) (2.00) (-6.52) (4.02) (4.69) (2.88)

(5/22)

:

*

/

2.14% 5 3.21% 1.07

1.01% 5 3.34% 2.33

1. (1)(2)

(3)

2. (1)(2)

15

:

(1)=(2)+(3) (2) (3)

2015/Q1 (r) 3.84 1.25 1.94 -0.38 -0.04 -0.36 0.32 -0.27 2.59 4.21 1.62

Q2 (p) 0.52 2.72 1.52 0.01 0.29 0.23 0.06 0.91 -2.20 -0.92 1.28

(3.05) (2.18) (1.46) (0.02) (0.55) (0.00) (0.56) (0.14) (0.87) (2.30) (1.44)

Q3 (f) 0.10 1.36 1.56 -0.20 0.90 0.12 0.78 -0.90 -1.25 -0.28 0.97

(3.14) (1.49) (1.48) (-0.16) (0.54) (-0.21) (0.75) (-0.37) (1.65) (3.78) (2.13)

Q4 (f) 1.90 1.78 1.50 -0.25 0.22 -0.43 0.65 0.31 0.12 0.98 0.86

(3.53) (2.28) (1.54) (-0.26) (0.53) (-0.49) (1.01) (0.47) (1.25) (3.04) (1.79)

2015 (f) 1.56 1.78 1.62 -0.21 0.35 -0.11 0.46 0.01 -0.22 0.95 1.17

(3.28) (1.70) (1.47) (-0.18) (0.43) (-0.26) (0.70) (-0.02) (1.57) (3.29) (1.72)

: (5/22)

*

:

/

3. 3 0.1%

16

%

1 1

2014 -3.5 6.1 2.3 -0.2 -1.5 3.2 1.8 -0.4 2.4 2.7

2015

Q1-6.0 4.6 -3.0 -11.5 -17.2 2.3 -10.2 -4.7 -11.1 -4.2

Q2 -10.2 -2.2 -7.21 -14.7 -17.6 -1.9 -15.7 -5.0 -14.9 -9.8

1~ 6 -8.1 1.0 -5.2 -13.2 -17.4 0.1 -13.2 -4.8 -13.1 -7.1

7 n.a. -8.3 -3.4 -12.4 -16.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -11.9

Datastream

2. n.a.

()

1.1.4%50.6%

2

17

: %

() -

0.52 2.72 1.52 0.01 1.20 -2.20 -0.92 1.28

2.2 3.2 0.8 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.5 0.5

1.8 -0.7 1.3 -2.0 0.0 2.5 1.2 -1.3

:

20152

2

1 2

2

2015/Q1 2015/Q2

3.84 0.52

2.5 2.2

2.8 1.8

2015

%yoy

18

%

-9.81 -7.77 -2.04 -3.21

-7.21 -9.85 2.64 -2.24

-14.74 -12.88 -1.86 -0.50

-14.90 -16.07 1.17

-15.60 -20.48 4.88

-18.89 -17.53 -1.36 1.

2.

Datastream

1.

(1)

(2)

(3)

2015 2

()

19

718.0 587.7 130.3 102.1 1,435.1 1,085.8 349.3 264.3 1,068.0 808.1 260.0 91.8

142.5 122.8 19.7 27.3 233.4 273.5 -40.1 -18.4 338.3 334.5 3.9 -10.4

2014

GDP(%)

*

7.6 45.6

*

10.8

2.

(1) GDP 45.6%

(2) 1.1

5.0

(3) MERS

(4)

2015 2

20

: %

0.52 2.72 1.52 0.24 0.01 0.23 0.97

2.2 3.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.5

1.8 -0.7 1.3 -- -2.0

:

0.0

()

3.

(1) 2 2.72 0.91

(2) 2 2015

38.4%

0.9

2015 2

21

7

1. 1-6 M2 6.47% 2.14%

2. 8 13

M2

22

1.

(1)

(2)

2. 3,179 3,596 13.1% 984 1,033 4.9%

3.

(1) IMF 0.5 IMF 4 1

(2) IMF20145 3

(3)

GDP 1 GDP

4

() GDP 0.4% GDP 1.5%

GDP 1.5% GDP 3.0%

IMF (2014), Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment, World Economic Outlook, Oct..

23

Q1 Q2

8.8 12.9 10.1 3.6 -20.3 34.8 12.3 -2.3 1.4 2.7 -4.2 -9.8

() 4.6 5.8 5.0 -0.3 -6.2 15.2 3.4 -1.8 0.9 1.1 -1.7 -5.0

1.8 1.9 2.3 1.1 -3.2 5.5 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 -2.0 -2.0

-0.1 1.3 1.1 0.5 -2.9 3.3 0.7 -0.8 -0.3 0.3 -1.0 -1.2

0.2 1.6 -0.1 -0.5 -2.8 3.9 1.8 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 0.7 -0.2

2.3 2.3 1.8 2.9 -5.2 6.9 3.0 -0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -1.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 20152009 20102005 2006 2007 2008

1.

2.

1 6 6 8.7% 10.5%

24

%

%

%

2005 29.20 23.89 5.31 3.6 3.0 0.7

2010 33.14 24.23 8.92 4.8 3.5 1.3

2014 31.76 21.30 10.46 5.3 3.5 1.7

2005-2014 30.94 22.58 8.35 44.1 32.2 11.9

2015

25

LG

1.

2.

3.

RTAs

IMF 6 RTAs

25%

TPPRCEP

26

()

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD (2015)

skill mismatch

OECD

27

(entrepreneurship) 7

1. 2011

2. 2013

3. 2015 9

28

: %

(GDP)*

2009 -1.57 -0.09

2010 10.63 9.84

2011 3.8 -0.63

2012 2.06 1.92

2013 2.23 3.63

2014 3.77 5.73

2015/Q1 3.84 8.76

Q2 0.52 5.95

:

2013

TOT

8

*

= GDP

+

+

-

-

+

T = M(1

1

)

T = E(1

1

)

()

()

T T M/PM M/PE E/PM E/PE

29

A. Y=C+I+G+X-M

B. 1 Y=(C-Cm)+(I-Im) +(G-Gm)+(X-Xm)

2015 2 : %

(A) (B)

(Y) 0.52 0.52

2.73 0.92

(C) 1.52 0.55

(I)2 0.97 0.37

(G) 0.24 0.00

-2.20 -0.40

(X-M) -2.20

(X-Xm) -0.40

1. CmImGm Xm CIG X M=Cm+Im+Gm+Xm 2011

2.

30

2015

: %

(A) (B)

(Y) 1.56 1.56

1.78 0.84

(C) 1.62 0.89

(I)2 0.47 0.23

(G) -0.32 -0.28

-0.22 0.71

(X-M) -0.22

(X-Xm) 0.71

1. CmImGm Xm CIG X M=Cm+Im+Gm+Xm 2011

2.

31

1. Constantinescu, C, A Mattoo and M Ruta (2015), The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural? IMF Working

Paper, Jan..Flanders, Stephanie (2015), The Warning Signs of Trade Stagnation, Financial Times, July 28.

2. 2008 55.0% 2013

72.8% 55.7% 66.1%

3. IEK (2015/08)

()

4. IMF Blanchard IMF IMF

IMF Giles, Chris (2015), IMF

Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard to Retire, Financial Times, May 14.

5. IMF (2014), Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment, World Economic Outlook, Oct..

6. Kpodar K. and Iman P. (2015) Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lesson or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An

Empirical Investigation, IMF working paper No. 15/177

7. Narea, Nicole (2015), Dell Pushes UN To Adopt Entrepreneurship In Its New Global Development Agenda, Forbes,

Aug. 6. Smith, Daniel (2010) The Role of Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, Undergraduate Economic Review:

Vol. 6: Iss.1, Article 7.UNCTAD (2004), Entrepreneurship and Economics Development, May.

8. 100 () 1 5 50

10