!!

"

!" # $ %& '$

%(

)*

'+ ,

!

)- ! #- ./01*2 3/45*6 " /07/00

#-" /48/45

9 :

; +

+:

:>

; :

'+ ,

?

$

:

+;

?: ./4@12

" 0

-

-

---

! - ./04@2 A5! - ./04A2 ? " B A7*0! - ./0052 : - : B 5

++

+ $$

?-

*$+

:: ./45*2 * D :: ./4*12 5 D :: ./4*42 + ,

' ; ./4*42 ! ! *$( '$" .2 ./4*82 . !

&-

E #&$ .2 ./4*02 ! % #6D ! ;./40*2 *$ !

; $ ./40*2 6) ? ( ./4*02 7 % 54 #

" /4*8" " " 80180/

$ ? ./4*A2 " 6 ! E ./40*2 ( '$ : ?

9

& '" /457"

" /40

& ' ./4572

:

: : &

HH&&&+

&

$

$

; ./4082DG ./4*02D '$ ./4*82

- ./4042D ./44@2

-"

/407 /5

< -

9" /40A

/1A

#&9"

/40@ 45

./4*@2 *

./401" /4472 5801

" /405 /A

;;$" /40* 8

!

!

;;$" /4*4

/5A

)

" /454 /A@

-

-+$

$

./4*82#

!

!!

!

./0842 @1

" /40A /4

./40*2

" /**5 @51@5/"/0@/ 48

(;" /044 //5" //4

99 ./40*2#- ./40*2

(

-

./4@12 /4//45

(; ./0442

G$ ./4*02

(+$ "/448

G

( #&9" /4*5 81

(+-($

+ ./487A2 ; ./478 /A42

#

&-CI

CIIC

C

CI

E"/0*/

&;" /04/ ;"

/478#;" /4*7

+

!-

+" /4*/

-" /4** /40;" /441 *7

!((( (

(JK

K

KJ

': +

>

H.K2

> H

> H

$$

B KK

> .H2 H .HK/2 > .2 H.K/2

( ./4*02

#

" /084 717A

"/084+ 84@::

?!=(%

'

':: ./4012D G ./4*/2

#

" /40*D /400

=- ./478D /4752

(

"

(((J

; '; ./44A2

!!

!

!

(

!

%

B+ ./044D /41AD /4@72+

$

!

B+" /4@7 004

B+ ./41A2 *0D ./4102 7@54

!!

B+ ./4102

B+ ./4102 7A0

B+" /4@7 58

B+" /4@7 555*

?+ %&

!

./4412

B+ ./4102

$

"

!

- 9 .@1112

'?

'?(

(

)

" "

) (

'

'

"

"

./4012 @

B+" /4/4 0/" /4*@ A*A!" /405 8

L

(-" %:: : '-$ ?" /44/ 70

B+" /4@7 55

((K(( K

B+ ./4@72 7*7

L : ( ./4052

+" /477(+" /477" /478

#; ./4052 @0@7D ./4042 /00

L > J L

L

L

!

./4*52

$

#:+& ./4882D ./4*@2D ./4012D ./4412

" /4A

! $;! &

( : L

2@04/ D854/. %

0

1

2

3

4

5

s0791 s0691 s0591 s0491 s0391 s0291 s0191 s0091 s0981 s0881 s0781 s0681

"

"

!

?'M'

-&

($ ./4002 4" /A ./4082

,'+,'+

'+ "

/450

!!,!

!; ./4012

* D( : L

0

5

01

51

02

52

03

0102 0002 0991 0891 0791 0691 0591 0491 0391 0291

0

02

04

06

08

001

021

041

061

081

) (

) (

B+" /41A /@*

" /447

$

+

6 6

$

&

&

& ./405D /4412G9 ./44A2

#&" /440 A

$

$

G

G > H

# #./4742D = ./4A52D

& ::

;

; >

;;;

> ; ;

>

!

9

9"

/448D /445

D( : L

6

8

01

21

41

61

81

02

5002 0002 5991 0991 5891 0891 5791 0791 5691 0691 5591 0591

0

001

002

003

004

005

006

007

008

009

0001

0011

0021

0031

) (

) (

$

++$ +

$

!

@

@

D!

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0102 5002 0002 5991 0991 5891 0891 5791 0791 5691 0691 5591

2-

0

2

4

6

8

01

21

) (

) (

9 ./4452' ( (+ # .@1112

M $ .@11/@11@2" 58" A

2A44/. -

L : ( 3/4*86 /" /A1

/A8

- $

'

::

?" /450

&" /4*4

&-" /405 *

$

L

B(%

"

M " " 6 D L

( -

( (

H > H .(KB2 > .HB2 H 3./K.(HB26HB(HB

&9$" /455 @/0

HB(HB

(HB

(HBHB

(HB "

/4*5D -" /4**

G;" /4A7 /AA

G;"

/4A7 /A/

&9$" /455 /87

) ./4**2'

'

G;" /45*

//1///

: :" - #P

, " //708 A5

, " 7//05

75!/0

" 0A08 /A

./4082

!" ! 86D ( :

(?

, " /570* //@//7

, " */@4@

=/1//

, " @7800 //*//0

#

?

" /4** A@

> . J 2 H . J K 2

> @

> @

G

L : (D D %

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

RDE

?!'?)??'

!/A" /4** @A4@85!/8, " /574@"

7*! " /40* @*L : ("

2$

I-" /44/ 5/7

E+$ ./4*A2 '+ 4/@" @// ./40*2 /8

'

E+$" /4*A @A8*

" /4*5 /47@17D @4A7@1

1@4/ 2@54/. (%

(

'

(?

#

? ./40*2%=

%((

)

( > 7578 K 115* %( @ > 1*A.A@/2 .4@*2

" /401 5/

'

!

, ! *$+ ./4412 8

!

+$* ! , D! D( : L

03-

02-

01-

0

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

5002 0002 5991 0991 5891 0891 5791 0791 5691 0691

6-

4-

2-

0

2

4

6

8

01

21

41

61

0002

) (

/

) (

./4*52 @550 ./4*82 @AA8 $ - % = ( %" , " //@/44/ @5*% ./4*42 /0@

!

E+$ ./4*A2 '+ 8/" 504D '+ 8@" *A8 > / 5A*@ K @ *704 K / 5A*@ 7

K @ *704 7 > / 5A*@ K @ *704 K / 5A*@ . 27

@ *704 . 27 K

7

5A*@

*704

OLS - ) (

arms importt ln (arms imports)t

D64-72t -2,872.1 (0.9)

-12.95 (6.67)*

D73-89t 9,030.6 (8.77)*

5.74 (11.93)*

D64-72t oil incomet-3 0.606 (1.68)

D73-89t oil incomet-3 0.058 (8.15)*

D64-72t ln (oil income)t-3 2.28 (10.58)* D73-89t ln (oil income)t-3 0.34 (8.14)* R2 0.93 0.98 Adj. R2 0.92 0.98 F-statistics 100.234 393.157 DW 1.45 1.94

(*) P < .001 (two tailed test)

@

#

> 1440 ./4082 '+ @@" 40, ! *$+ '.

! 86 .

M D

9; % ./40*2 8A88

M D

$&

GG

($ ./4042 /1

-" /4** 8*0)9 ./4072 A485

./4412

,

./4*82 @185D ./4**2 /8/@" /48

! ./40*2 @/ ./4**2 @78

" /4** @A8

G-" /40/ /0@

./4**2 @8@

- ./4**2 @A@

( ./4012 @AA

"

% ./4*42 /18" @/8D I- ./44/2 80/

./4*52 @@50D ./4*82 @A70D I- ./44/2 847*

:: ./4002 /18

$

#

G ./4*02 /

I-" /44/ A@/

./4*52 @@1@71D '

G"

/4*0 74

I-" /44/ 5A7

I- ./44/2 84*

.+ 8 " 7**8

! ./40*2 @8

!/8

!/5

!8

!/8

# ./40*2

./40/2 /*

#

.+ 8 " /8A4/D ; ./44/2

($" /404 /7

!/5, " @@*08

($ ./4042 55*1

($" /404 @/8

+ @/5

($"

/404 /*

(

#

6" /441

, " /1508

L- ./44@2 48

!

L (-" %:: :

'-$ ?" /44/ @1

, " /7*4@

%(

" 7/@41I- ./44/2 */0, " *700D @**00, " A508

/*@05

" 8 +.

50A*

A*/ 2044/. DA7/ 2804/. D15/ 2104/. D1* 28*4/. $-? ( ? L188 +' 2/44/. $? :

! "

!* ./40*2

, " @4/@05

!*" /40* '+ *0" @1A8

!*" /40* 71*

/40* A8

#

"

.+ 8 " /A500

!/8

" *A05" @5805.+ 8 " @800.+ 8 " /7800D " @8*00

!/8

, " /@400, " @4000

!/8

& ? ./44/2 4//& ? ./44/2 @85@58D , " *700

&

&

& ?"

/44/ @5*

& ./44/2 /4

L : ("

.+ 8 " *74/ .+ 8 " 7174/

?'M'

, " /0@4/D 574/D //74/.+ 8 " /044/, " /0@4/ " /7/@4@

!" ! . $2 .

7.9 163.9 Exxon-Mobil 0.382 25.5 17.8 Lookheed Martin

: Exxon / Mobil

: General Dynamics Tactical Aircraft & Space, Loral, Martin Marietta, G.E Aero

8.6 105.4 RD / Shell 1.1 58 16.3 Boeing

:

Eqilon (56%), Motiva (35%)

:

Rockwell Aerospace, McDonnell-Douglas

5.0 83.6 BP-Amoco 0.491 19.4 15.2 BAE System :

BP, Amoco, Atlantic Richfield

: Alenia Marconi (50%), Saab (20%), AES, Airbus (20%), Matra BAE (50%), Astrium (34%), Eurofighter (37%)

3.9 82.9 Total Fina Elf 0.404 19.8 14.5 Raytheon :

Total, Fina, Elf-Aquitaine

: E-System, Hughes, Texas Instruments Defense Sys. & Elec.

0.45 41.9 Sinopec 0.100 8.9 8.9 General Dynamics :

Teledyne Vehicle, Lucents Adv. Tech., GTE Gov. Sys., Gulfstream

# .+D !$ .@A*@1112D D $D !$