1. news summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - priden · 2015-01-29 · news comment headline...

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1. News Summary (3 page) News Conclusion WTI comment 국제유가 강보합 Headline Shell 4Q14 earning shock주가 -4.3%, "$150규모 투자축소 결정." 장기 저유가 대비 포석으로 판단. 전통 7sisters안정된 재무구조 부각 News 1. Dow Chem 4Q14 earning surprise주가 +4.6%, "원재료 하락/spread Dow chem대표적 Specialty Chemical 업체, 국내업체와 단순비교 불가 News 2. 서울지방국세청, LG화학에 세금추징 1,000억원 부과 1,000억원은 LG화학의 fundamental영향을 미칠 요인은 아님 News 3. - - 2. Prices Summary (4~7 page) Daily Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Weekly Update Unit Price 1W 1M 3M 12M Refinery % % % % % Petrochemical % % % % WTI $/bbl 44.5 0.2 (3.8) (17.5) (44.8) (54.2) Ethylene 01/26 $/t 895 (3.2) (8.7) (32.5) (37.0) Dubai $/bbl 44.6 (0.4) (0.0) (16.8) (47.0) (57.0) Propylene 01/26 $/t 740 4.2 9.6 (37.6) (46.8) Gasoline $/bbl 56.4 (0.2) (0.1) (13.0) (43.2) (52.1) Benzene 01/26 $/t 685 19.1 3.8 (39.5) (50.2) Diesel $/bbl 61.5 (0.1) 0.3 (12.4) (37.8) (49.6) Toluene 01/26 $/t 600 4.3 (4.0) (42.6) (48.2) Complex margin $/bbl 9.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.8 Xylene 01/26 $/t 600 6.7 (2.4) (36.2) (48.1) 1M lagging $/bbl (2.0) 0.6 4.9 10.9 3.0 (7.7) PP 01/26 $/t 965 (3.5) (15.4) (34.6) (37.3) Petrochemical % % % % % PVC 01/26 $/t 815 2.5 2.5 (18.5) (22.4) Naphtha $/t 437 (0.9) 1.6 (10.1) (39.7) (53.2) ABS 01/26 $/t 1,465 (3.3) (7.6) (22.5) (24.5) Butadiene $/t 640 0.0 (3.0) (31.9) (36.9) (56.0) SBR 01/26 $/t 1,335 (5.7) (10.7) (26.0) (31.0) HDPE $/t 1,090 (0.9) (3.1) (6.8) (26.8) (29.4) SM 01/26 $/t 920 6.4 (5.6) (37.9) (46.0) MEG $/t 755 0.4 3.0 (1.3) (9.4) (24.7) BPA 01/26 $/t 1,780 1.4 (3.9) (18.5) (21.8) PX $/t 745 (1.7) (4.5) (10.9) (28.0) (42.1) Caustic 01/26 $/t 255 (1.9) (7.3) (17.7) (20.3) SM $/t 893 0.0 1.0 (4.9) (37.0) (45.4) 2-EH 01/26 $/t 935 0.0 (17.3) (31.0) (34.6) Commodity % % % % % Caprolactam 01/26 $/t 1,660 (4.9) (13.5) (22.4) (30.5) Natural Gas $/mmbtu 2.72 (4.3) (3.8) (6.1) (29.0) (39.1) Solar % % % % Natural rubber $/t 1,380 0.0 0.0 (8.0) (12.7) (27.7) Polysilicon 01/28 $/kg 19.1 (0.2) (0.9) (8.1) (8.8) Cotton C/lbs 59.6 0.2 3.1 (1.2) (5.5) (22.7) Module 01/28 $/W 0.61 (0.2) (1.1) (1.6) (11.1) 2015년 1월 30일 *참고: 정제마진의 변동률은 %아닌 $/bbl3. Global Peers Summary (8~9 page) Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M E&P % % % % % Petrochemical % % % % % ExxonMobil USD 87.6 (0.4) (5.7) (5.9) (7.4) (7.9) BASF EUR 79.5 2.3 4.6 12.3 15.9 0.9 Shell EUR 2,060 (4.3) (5.4) (6.7) (7.9) (3.1) Dow Chemical USD 45.0 4.6 (0.8) (2.2) (5.0) 0.6 Petrochina CNY 11.98 (2.2) (5.1) 16.0 55.8 58.7 SABIC SAR 86.3 (2.5) 9.1 (3.5) (23.1) (23.3) Gazprom RUB 145.0 (1.8) (4.3) 7.0 4.7 (1.9) Formosa Pla. TWD 77.2 0.3 1.3 7.1 10.6 (1.0) Petrobras BRL 8.8 (3.1) (14.6) (14.9) (37.6) (40.9) Shin-Etsu JPY 7,883 (1.5) 1.6 (2.0) 17.6 35.1 Refinery Renewable Phillips66 USD 70.5 3.1 4.7 (3.2) (7.7) (5.0) Wacker EUR 91.9 (2.3) 2.6 (0.1) 4.2 7.9 Valero USD 52.1 1.1 8.5 4.1 7.3 1.3 Yingli USD 1.92 0.0 (1.0) (12.7) (34.5) (68.6) JX JPY 435.8 (1.7) (2.5) (7.6) (4.3) (14.4) Tesla USD 205.2 2.9 1.8 (9.1) (13.8) 17.1 Neste Oil EUR 24.6 2.2 12.9 23.8 45.9 85.2 BYD CNY 39.8 (1.6) (0.1) 8.9 (17.3) 0.0 4. Coverage Summary 01/29 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M 투자의견 TP % P/E P/B KOSPI 1,951 (0.5) 1.6 1.8 (0.7) (6.3) 1.8 * 추정치는 12M fwd 기준임 KOSPI화학 4,017 0.1 4.8 8.7 6.4 (2.8) 2.8 * 모든 coverage 업체의 실적은 연결기준임 LG화학 199,000 0.0 3.1 9.9 (0.5) (31.3) (23.5) 매수 230,000 15.6 11.30 1.19 롯데케미칼 171,000 (1.7) 8.6 6.9 17.9 (1.2) (18.0) 매수 170,000 (0.6) 13.41 0.84 한화케미칼 12,400 (0.8) 3.8 5.1 2.1 (32.2) (37.7) 매수 14,000 12.9 7.89 0.40 금호석유화학 87,600 (1.1) 1.3 8.7 13.3 (3.0) 1.0 매수 90,000 2.7 16.20 1.90 OCI 78,500 (0.6) 4.9 (0.1) (14.7) (52.7) (58.2) 매수 110,000 40.1 15.13 0.77 SKC 29,600 (0.5) 5.0 11.3 7.6 (16.6) (4.4) 매수 37,000 25.0 9.79 0.87 국도화학 43,000 (0.1) (0.2) 4.6 3.7 (19.8) (15.7) 매수 55,000 27.9 10.08 0.61 SK이노베이션 92,500 (3.0) (0.2) 8.7 5.7 (11.1) (27.7) 매수 100,000 8.1 11.05 0.63 S-Oil 58,200 0.0 3.7 20.2 43.2 6.6 (15.0) 매수 55,000 (5.5) 19.08 1.38 GS 41,550 0.0 4.3 3.9 0.2 (11.3) (19.9) 매수 50,000 20.3 9.10 0.71 SK가스 87,900 (1.1) 2.3 (9.2) (37.0) (20.1) 21.6 매수 110,000 25.1 11.01 0.64 대우인터내셔널 27,850 (3.1) (4.1) (11.4) (17.7) (25.8) (30.0) 매수 38,000 36.4 9.81 1.29 LG상사 33,650 (0.7) 1.4 17.2 55.4 13.9 14.1 매수 34,000 1.0 11.90 0.91 SK네트웍스 8,560 4.8 10.2 (4.3) (21.8) (22.9) 6.1 매수 12,000 40.2 8.94 0.77 작성자(손지우)는 본 조사분석자료에 게재된 내용들이 본인의 의견을 정확하게 반영하고 있으며, 외부의 부당한 압력이나 간섭없이 신의성실하게 작성되었음을 확인합니다. ▪ 본 보고서에 언급된 종목의 경우 당사 조사분석담당자는 본인의 담당종목을 보유하고 있지 않습니다. ▪ 본 보고서는 기관투자가 또는 제 3자에게 사전 제공된 사실이 없습니다. 당사는 보고서의 발간시점에 해당종목을 1% 이상 보유하고 있지 않습니다.

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Page 1: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

1. News Summary (3 page)

News Conclusion

WTI comment 국제유가 강보합

Headline Shell 4Q14 earning shock로 주가 -4.3%, "$150억 규모 투자축소 결정." 장기 저유가 대비 포석으로 판단. 전통 7sisters의 안정된 재무구조 부각

News 1. Dow Chem 4Q14 earning surprise로 주가 +4.6%, "원재료 하락/spread 확대Dow chem은 대표적 Specialty Chemical 업체, 국내업체와 단순비교 불가

News 2. 서울지방국세청, LG화학에 세금추징 1,000억원 부과 1,000억원은 LG화학의 fundamental에 큰 영향을 미칠 요인은 아님

News 3. - -

2. Prices Summary (4~7 page)

Daily Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Weekly Update Unit Price 1W 1M 3M 12M

Refinery % % % % % Petrochemical % % % %

WTI $/bbl 44.5 0.2 (3.8) (17.5) (44.8) (54.2) Ethylene 01/26 $/t 895 (3.2) (8.7) (32.5) (37.0)

Dubai $/bbl 44.6 (0.4) (0.0) (16.8) (47.0) (57.0) Propylene 01/26 $/t 740 4.2 9.6 (37.6) (46.8)

Gasoline $/bbl 56.4 (0.2) (0.1) (13.0) (43.2) (52.1) Benzene 01/26 $/t 685 19.1 3.8 (39.5) (50.2)

Diesel $/bbl 61.5 (0.1) 0.3 (12.4) (37.8) (49.6) Toluene 01/26 $/t 600 4.3 (4.0) (42.6) (48.2)

Complex margin $/bbl 9.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.8 Xylene 01/26 $/t 600 6.7 (2.4) (36.2) (48.1)

1M lagging $/bbl (2.0) 0.6 4.9 10.9 3.0 (7.7) PP 01/26 $/t 965 (3.5) (15.4) (34.6) (37.3)

Petrochemical % % % % % PVC 01/26 $/t 815 2.5 2.5 (18.5) (22.4)

Naphtha $/t 437 (0.9) 1.6 (10.1) (39.7) (53.2) ABS 01/26 $/t 1,465 (3.3) (7.6) (22.5) (24.5)

Butadiene $/t 640 0.0 (3.0) (31.9) (36.9) (56.0) SBR 01/26 $/t 1,335 (5.7) (10.7) (26.0) (31.0)

HDPE $/t 1,090 (0.9) (3.1) (6.8) (26.8) (29.4) SM 01/26 $/t 920 6.4 (5.6) (37.9) (46.0)

MEG $/t 755 0.4 3.0 (1.3) (9.4) (24.7) BPA 01/26 $/t 1,780 1.4 (3.9) (18.5) (21.8)

PX $/t 745 (1.7) (4.5) (10.9) (28.0) (42.1) Caustic 01/26 $/t 255 (1.9) (7.3) (17.7) (20.3)

SM $/t 893 0.0 1.0 (4.9) (37.0) (45.4) 2-EH 01/26 $/t 935 0.0 (17.3) (31.0) (34.6)

Commodity % % % % % Caprolactam 01/26 $/t 1,660 (4.9) (13.5) (22.4) (30.5)

Natural Gas $/mmbtu 2.72 (4.3) (3.8) (6.1) (29.0) (39.1) Solar % % % %

Natural rubber $/t 1,380 0.0 0.0 (8.0) (12.7) (27.7) Polysilicon 01/28 $/kg 19.1 (0.2) (0.9) (8.1) (8.8)

Cotton C/lbs 59.6 0.2 3.1 (1.2) (5.5) (22.7) Module 01/28 $/W 0.61 (0.2) (1.1) (1.6) (11.1)

*참고 정제마진의 변동률은 %가 아닌 $/bbl임

2015년 1월 30일

*참고: 정제마진의 변동률은 %가 아닌 $/bbl임

3. Global Peers Summary (8~9 page)

Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M Unit Price 1D 1W 1M 3M 12M

E&P % % % % % Petrochemical % % % % %

ExxonMobil USD 87.6 (0.4) (5.7) (5.9) (7.4) (7.9) BASF EUR 79.5 2.3 4.6 12.3 15.9 0.9

Shell EUR 2,060 (4.3) (5.4) (6.7) (7.9) (3.1) Dow Chemical USD 45.0 4.6 (0.8) (2.2) (5.0) 0.6

Petrochina CNY 11.98 (2.2) (5.1) 16.0 55.8 58.7 SABIC SAR 86.3 (2.5) 9.1 (3.5) (23.1) (23.3)

Gazprom RUB 145.0 (1.8) (4.3) 7.0 4.7 (1.9) Formosa Pla. TWD 77.2 0.3 1.3 7.1 10.6 (1.0)

Petrobras BRL 8.8 (3.1) (14.6) (14.9) (37.6) (40.9) Shin-Etsu JPY 7,883 (1.5) 1.6 (2.0) 17.6 35.1

Refinery Renewable

Phillips66 USD 70.5 3.1 4.7 (3.2) (7.7) (5.0) Wacker EUR 91.9 (2.3) 2.6 (0.1) 4.2 7.9

Valero USD 52.1 1.1 8.5 4.1 7.3 1.3 Yingli USD 1.92 0.0 (1.0) (12.7) (34.5) (68.6)

JX JPY 435.8 (1.7) (2.5) (7.6) (4.3) (14.4) Tesla USD 205.2 2.9 1.8 (9.1) (13.8) 17.1

Neste Oil EUR 24.6 2.2 12.9 23.8 45.9 85.2 BYD CNY 39.8 (1.6) (0.1) 8.9 (17.3) 0.0

4. Coverage Summary

01/29 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M 투자의견 TP % P/E P/B

KOSPI 1,951 (0.5) 1.6 1.8 (0.7) (6.3) 1.8 * 추정치는 12M fwd 기준임

KOSPI화학 4,017 0.1 4.8 8.7 6.4 (2.8) 2.8 * 모든 coverage 업체의 실적은 연결기준임

LG화학 199,000 0.0 3.1 9.9 (0.5) (31.3) (23.5) 매수 230,000 15.6 11.30 1.19

롯데케미칼 171,000 (1.7) 8.6 6.9 17.9 (1.2) (18.0) 매수 170,000 (0.6) 13.41 0.84

한화케미칼 12,400 (0.8) 3.8 5.1 2.1 (32.2) (37.7) 매수 14,000 12.9 7.89 0.40

금호석유화학 87,600 (1.1) 1.3 8.7 13.3 (3.0) 1.0 매수 90,000 2.7 16.20 1.90

OCI 78,500 (0.6) 4.9 (0.1) (14.7) (52.7) (58.2) 매수 110,000 40.1 15.13 0.77

SKC 29,600 (0.5) 5.0 11.3 7.6 (16.6) (4.4) 매수 37,000 25.0 9.79 0.87

국도화학 43,000 (0.1) (0.2) 4.6 3.7 (19.8) (15.7) 매수 55,000 27.9 10.08 0.61

SK이노베이션 92,500 (3.0) (0.2) 8.7 5.7 (11.1) (27.7) 매수 100,000 8.1 11.05 0.63

S-Oil 58,200 0.0 3.7 20.2 43.2 6.6 (15.0) 매수 55,000 (5.5) 19.08 1.38

GS 41,550 0.0 4.3 3.9 0.2 (11.3) (19.9) 매수 50,000 20.3 9.10 0.71

SK가스 87,900 (1.1) 2.3 (9.2) (37.0) (20.1) 21.6 매수 110,000 25.1 11.01 0.64

대우인터내셔널 27,850 (3.1) (4.1) (11.4) (17.7) (25.8) (30.0) 매수 38,000 36.4 9.81 1.29

LG상사 33,650 (0.7) 1.4 17.2 55.4 13.9 14.1 매수 34,000 1.0 11.90 0.91

SK네트웍스 8,560 4.8 10.2 (4.3) (21.8) (22.9) 6.1 매수 12,000 40.2 8.94 0.77

▪ 작성자(손지우)는 본 조사분석자료에 게재된 내용들이 본인의 의견을 정확하게 반영하고 있으며, 외부의 부당한 압력이나 간섭없이 신의성실하게 작성되었음을 확인합니다.

▪ 본 보고서에 언급된 종목의 경우 당사 조사분석담당자는 본인의 담당종목을 보유하고 있지 않습니다.

▪ 본 보고서는 기관투자가 또는 제 3자에게 사전 제공된 사실이 없습니다.

▪ 당사는 본 보고서의 발간시점에 해당종목을 1% 이상 보유하고 있지 않습니다.

Page 2: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

Key Chart

KOSPI/KOSPI화학 WTI/Dubai

Complex & 1M lagging margin Polysilicon & Module prices

Naphtha/Ethylene/Propylene prices Butadiene price & 1M lagging naphtha spread

3,300

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

4,500

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

15/0114/1014/0714/0414/0113/1013/0713/03

KOSPI(우) KOSPI화학(좌)(p) (p)

Naphtha Ethylene Propylene($/t) 1M lagging Butadiene($/t) ($/t)

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

15

17

19

21

23

13/01 13/07 13/12 14/06 14/11

PolySilicon Silicon Module($/kg) ($/W)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

13/01 13/05 13/09 14/01 14/05 14/09

WTI Dubai($/bbl)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

13/01 13/05 13/09 14/01 14/05 14/09

시차조정복합 복합정제마진($/bbl)

HDPE price & 1M lagging naphtha spread MEG price & 1M lagging naphtha spread

PVC price & 1M lagging naphtha spread PX price & 1M lagging naphtha spread

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

13/01 13/05 13/09 14/01 14/05 14/09 15/01

p y py

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

13/01 13/05 13/09 14/01 14/05 14/09 15/01

gg g

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

13/01 13/05 13/09 14/01 14/05 14/09 15/01

1M lagging HDPE($/t) ($/t)

-100

0

100

200

300

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

13/01 13/05 13/09 14/01 14/05 14/09 15/01

1M lagging MEG($/t) ($/t)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

13/01 13/05 13/09 14/01 14/05 14/09 15/01

1M lagging PVC($/t) ($/t)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

13/01 13/05 13/09 14/01 14/05 14/09 15/01

1M lagging PX($/t) ($/t)

자료: Bloomberg, Cischem, Petronet, Platts, Pvinsights, SK증권

참고: 상기 데이터는 일괄적으로 과거 2년치 적용

Page 3: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

News Comment

Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스)

제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로 주가 -4.3%, "$150억 규모 투자축소 결정." 제목 국제유가 강보합

결론 장기 저유가 대비 포석으로 판단. 전통 7sisters의 안정된 재무구조 부각 상승 미국 주간 실업수당 청구건수 26.5만건, 2000년 4월 이후 최저

세부 요인

1) 1회성 비용/재고손실 제외 이익은 $33억: 컨센서스 $41억 하회, 5년래 최저

2) CEO Ben van Beurden, "현재 투자 프로그램은 부담스러운 수준임."

3) 차후 3년간 투자금액 $150억 축소 결정하였음 하락

4) 세계적으로 계획된 프로젝트 중 40개 정도가 연기/취소될 것 요인

5) 장기 저유가 대비 포석으로 판단. 전통 7sisters의 안정된 재무구조 부각

Issue 1 (출처: Bloomberg) Issue 2 (출처: 각종언론)

제목 Dow Chem 4Q14 earning surprise로 주가 +4.6%, "원재료 하락/spread 확대." 제목 서울지방국세청, LG화학에 세금추징 1,000억원 부과

결론 Dow chem은 대표적 Specialty Chemical 업체, 국내업체와 단순비교 불가 결론 1,000억원은 LG화학의 fundamental에 큰 영향을 미칠 요인은 아님

세부 세부

1) 1회성 비용 제외한 이익 주당 C85, 추정치 C70을 초과했음 1) 지난 해 6월부터 국세청에 조사인력 30~40여명 투입해 세무조사 진행

2) 가장 큰 사업부인 Performance Plastics의 호조 때문임 2) 국세청 내 중수부'인 조사 4국 투입, 통상 조사 1국이 정기 세무조사

3) 원재료 가격 하락 반면 타이트한 수급 영향으로 제품 견조해 spread 확대 3) 혐의는 LG화학/하우시스 분활 과정에서 법인세 미납부 발견임

4) CEO Andrew Liveris, "저유가는 Dow에 이득, 세계 수요상승에도 기여." 4) LG하우시스는 이미 지난 해 11월 추징금 200억원 부과받아 납부

5) Dow chem은 대표적 Specialty Chemical 업체, 국내업체와 단순비교 불가 5) 1,000억원은 LG화학의 fundamental에 큰 영향을 미칠 요인은 아님

Issue 3 Issue 4

제목 제목

결론 결론

세부 세부

1) 1)

2) 2)

3) 3)

4) 4)

5) 5)

Issue 5 Issue 6

제목 제목

결론 결론

세부 세부

1) 1)

2) 2)

3) 3)

4) 4)

5) 5)

Page 4: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

Commodity Price Data

Daily Price Today 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 2013avg. 2014avg. 2015acc.

F/X USD/EUR 0.884 0.886 0.880 0.823 0.792 0.746 0.732 0.826 0.753 0.754 0.860

Change, % (0.3) 0.4 7.4 11.6 18.5 20.7 6.9 (3.9) 13.7 (0.0)

USD/JPY 118.3 117.5 118.5 120.7 108.9 102.1 102.3 119.7 97.7 105.9 118.4

Change, % 0.7 (0.1) (1.9) 8.7 15.9 15.7 (1.2) 21.5 13.8 0.0

USD/KRW 1,093.9 1,084.4 1,085.0 1,097.7 1,047.3 1,024.5 1,070.0 1,094.0 1,094.6 1,053.0 1,088.7

Change, % 0.9 0.8 (0.3) 4.5 6.8 2.2 (0.0) 50.3 3.3 0.0

Agriculture Corn 371.5 373.3 383.8 412.8 375.3 361.5 427.5 397.0 579.2 415.6 389.6

Change, % (0.5) (3.2) (10.0) (1.0) 2.8 (13.1) (6.4) (39.6) (5.9) 0.0

Soybean 968.3 970.3 976.8 1,041.8 1,043.0 1,226.5 1,269.3 1,019.3 1,407.0 1,245.5 1,001.9

Change, % (0.2) (0.9) (7.1) (7.2) (21.1) (23.7) (5.0) (7.5) (22.3) 0.0

Wheat 507.8 505.3 533.8 615.5 538.3 520.0 551.5 589.8 684.3 588.0 547.2

Change, % 0.5 (4.9) (17.5) (5.7) (2.4) (7.9) (13.9) (22.2) (2.6) 0.0

Rice 10.9 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.1 13.1 15.5 11.5 15.5 14.0 11.2

Change, % 1.2 (2.7) (8.1) (10.5) (17.3) (29.7) (5.5) 4.4 (25.9) 0.0

Oats 282.5 287.5 291.0 303.3 350.5 356.5 421.3 303.8 367.5 373.1 294.1

Change, % (1.7) (2.9) (6.8) (19.4) (20.8) (32.9) (7.0) 1.9 (14.3) 0.0

MYR/mt Palm Oil 2,147.0 2,221.0 2,272.0 2,298.0 2,260.0 2,335.0 2,535.0 2,291.0 2,405.0 2,415.1 2,303.9

Change, % (3.3) (5.5) (6.6) (5.0) (8.1) (15.3) (6.3) 13.3 (12.8) 0.0

Cocoa 2,686.0 2,715.0 2,801.0 2,964.0 2,937.0 3,177.0 2,918.0 2,910.0 2,403.9 3,006.8 2,882.4

Change, % (1.1) (4.1) (9.4) (8.5) (15.5) (8.0) (7.7) 21.2 7.4 0.0

Cotton 59.6 59.4 57.8 62.0 65.4 64.4 85.6 60.3 83.3 76.4 59.3

Change, % 0.2 3.1 (3.9) (8.8) (7.6) (30.4) (1.2) 12.6 (28.8) 0.0

Sugar 14.9 15.2 15.9 14.6 16.3 16.6 14.7 14.5 17.5 16.3 15.0

Change, % (2.0) (6.7) 1.7 (8.9) (10.6) 0.7 2.3 (15.9) (11.5) (0.0)

Coffee 160.0 167.7 160.0 165.2 189.6 180.7 117.1 166.6 126.0 177.1 169.0Coffee 160.0 167.7 160.0 165.2 189.6 180.7 117.1 166.6 126.0 177.1 169.0

Change, % (4.6) 0.0 (3.1) (15.6) (11.5) 36.6 (4.0) (23.0) 50.5 0.0

Energy WTI 44.5 44.5 46.3 53.6 82.2 101.0 97.4 53.3 98.0 92.9 47.8

Change, % 0.1 (3.9) (17.0) (45.9) (55.9) (54.3) (16.4) 7.2 (45.9) 0.0

Brent 49.0 48.5 48.5 57.9 87.1 107.7 107.9 57.3 108.7 99.5 50.3

Change, % 1.2 1.1 (15.3) (43.7) (54.5) (54.5) (14.5) (0.3) (48.3) 0.0

Natural Gas 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.8 5.6 2.9 3.7 4.3 3.0

Change, % (5.1) (4.1) (14.7) (27.0) (28.6) (51.1) (5.8) 26.2 (31.7) 0.0

Ethanol 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.1 1.4

Change, % (1.0) (2.1) (17.8) (25.8) (37.6) (25.4) (16.2) (12.7) (14.9) 0.0

RBOB Gasoline 136.3 134.5 133.1 145.3 222.1 287.1 266.1 143.5 285.0 262.6 135.0

Change, % 1.3 2.4 (6.2) (38.6) (52.5) (48.8) (5.0) (0.9) (48.5) 0.0

Coal 45.7 46.0 45.3 49.2 52.8 60.0 59.5 48.5 56.1 57.5 46.5

Change, % (0.6) 0.9 (7.1) (13.3) (23.8) (23.1) (5.8) (1.0) (15.5) 0.0

Metal Gold 1,256.9 1,284.5 1,302.1 1,183.3 1,212.1 1,299.0 1,267.2 1,182.0 1,410.4 1,266.5 1,249.3

Change, % (2.2) (3.5) 6.2 3.7 (3.2) (0.8) 6.3 (28.0) (1.3) (0.0)

Silver 16.9 18.0 18.3 15.8 17.1 20.6 19.8 15.7 23.8 19.1 17.1

Change, % (5.8) (7.6) 7.2 (0.8) (17.6) (14.2) 8.2 (35.8) (18.9) (0.0)

Platinum 1,220.9 1,254.3 1,285.8 1,202.2 1,261.3 1,480.0 1,412.9 1,207.5 1,485.7 1,384.6 1,242.7

Change, % (2.7) (5.1) 1.6 (3.2) (17.5) (13.6) 1.1 (11.2) (11.5) (0.0)

Palladium 773.4 795.6 776.6 810.3 794.8 879.1 714.7 797.0 725.9 803.4 784.2

Change, % (2.8) (0.4) (4.5) (2.7) (12.0) 8.2 (3.0) 1.7 11.4 0.0

Copper 5,484.0 5,484.0 5,665.0 6,290.0 6,815.0 7,082.0 7,127.0 6,300.0 7,352.6 6,828.1 5,828.5

Change, % 0.0 (3.2) (12.8) (19.5) (22.6) (23.1) (13.0) (7.2) (14.4) 0.0

Uranium 37.3 37.3 36.8 35.7 37.0 28.8 35.5 35.3 38.5 33.5 36.1

Change, % 0.0 1.5 4.5 0.8 29.7 5.1 5.8 (20.9) 2.5 (0.0)

HR Coil 563.0 572.0 583.0 605.0 638.0 670.0 659.0 605.0 630.4 653.2 589.9

Change, % (1.6) (3.4) (6.9) (11.8) (16.0) (14.6) (6.9) 3.1 (10.4) 0.0

Scrap 345.0 345.0 344.0 400.0 400.0 398.0 420.0 355.0 396.9 401.3 351.3

Change, % 0.0 0.3 (13.8) (13.8) (13.3) (17.9) (2.8) (1.2) (16.5) 0.0

Zinc 2,118.0 2,118.0 2,141.0 2,142.0 2,295.0 2,366.0 1,993.5 2,178.0 1,940.3 2,165.0 2,128.5

Change, % 0.0 (1.1) (1.1) (7.7) (10.5) 6.2 (2.8) (1.2) 6.0 0.0

자료: Bloomberg

참고) NYMEX, ICE, LME 중 대표지수를 사용

Page 5: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

Refining Price Data

Daily Price 01/29 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 2013avg. 2014avg. 2015acc.

Crude Oil WTI 44.5 44.5 46.3 54.0 80.7 97.8 97.3 53.2 97.9 93.1 47.6

Change, % 0.2 (3.8) (17.5) (44.8) (54.4) (54.2) (16.3) (54.5) (52.2) (6.4)

Dubai 44.6 44.8 44.7 53.6 84.3 104.9 103.8 53.6 105.3 96.7 46.2

Change, % (0.4) (0.0) (16.8) (47.0) (57.5) (57.0) (16.7) (57.6) (53.9) (3.3)

Crude Oil Gasoline(휘발유) 56.4 56.5 56.4 64.8 99.3 113.3 117.6 64.8 119.1 110.9 57.4

Product Change, % (0.2) (0.1) (13.0) (43.2) (50.2) (52.1) (13.0) (52.7) (49.2) (1.7)

Kerosene(등유) 62.3 62.3 62.1 71.2 100.9 118.4 122.0 71.2 123.0 112.6 63.3

Change, % (0.0) 0.3 (12.6) (38.3) (47.4) (48.9) (12.5) (49.4) (44.7) (1.6)

Diesel(경유) 61.5 61.5 61.3 70.2 98.9 118.5 122.0 70.2 123.4 112.8 62.8

Change, % (0.1) 0.3 (12.4) (37.8) (48.1) (49.6) (12.4) (50.2) (45.5) (2.0)

Bunker-C 41.5 41.6 41.5 48.8 74.7 92.7 95.1 48.8 95.2 86.5 42.0

Change, % (0.4) 0.0 (15.0) (44.5) (55.3) (56.4) (15.0) (56.5) (52.0) (1.4)

Naphtha 44.3 44.3 44.2 47.9 77.3 102.4 102.5 48.0 101.1 94.3 44.0

Change, % (0.1) 0.2 (7.6) (42.8) (56.8) (56.8) (7.9) (56.2) (53.1) 0.5

Dubai Gasoline(휘발유) 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.1 15.0 8.3 13.8 11.2 13.8 14.2 11.2

Spread Change 0.1 (0.1) 0.6 (3.3) 3.4 (2.1) 0.6 (2.1) (2.5) 0.5

Kerosene(등유) 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.6 16.6 13.5 18.2 17.6 17.6 15.9 17.1

Change 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 4.1 (0.5) 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.5

Diesel(경유) 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.6 14.6 13.6 18.2 16.6 18.0 16.0 16.6

Change 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.2 3.3 (1.4) 0.3 (1.2) 0.8 0.3

Bunker-C (3.2) (3.2) (3.2) (4.8) (9.5) (12.2) (8.7) (4.8) (10.1) (10.3) (4.1)

Change 0.0 0.0 1.7 6.4 9.0 5.5 1.7 7.0 7.1 0.9

Naphtha (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (5.7) (6.9) (2.6) (1.3) (5.6) (4.2) (2.4) (2.1)

Change 0.1 0.1 5.4 6.6 2.2 0.9 5.2 3.8 2.0 1.8

Refining Simple(단순) 4.7 4.6 4.6 3.2 0.1 (2.7) 1.2 3.3 0.3 (0.1) 3.9

Margin Change 0.1 0.1 1.4 4.5 7.4 3.4 1.4 4.4 4.8 0.7

Complex(복합) 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.0 6.7 3.9 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.1 8.5

Change 0.1 0.1 1.1 2.4 5.2 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 0.6

Complex(lagging) (2.0) (2.6) (6.8) (12.9) (4.9) (2.4) 5.7 (14.3) 7.7 2.2 (11.2)

Change 0.6 4.9 10.9 3.0 0.4 (7.7) 12.4 (9.6) (4.2) 9.3

자료 : Petronet, SK증권

참고 1) Crude Oil 가격은 현물(spot) 기준으로 선물(future) 가격과 다를 수 있음

참고 2) Gasoline은 95RON, 경유는 L/P 0.5%, Bunker-C는 380cst/4.0% 기준임

Page 6: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

Petrochemical Price Data

Daily Price 01/29 01/28 01/27 01/26 01/23 01/22 01/21 01/20 01/19 01/16

Spot Price Naphtha CFR Japan 436.5 440.5 426.5 422.3 432.8 429.8 429.5 433.8 436.5 427.8

Ethylene CFR SE Asia 880.0 880.0 880.0 890.0 900.0 920.0 920.0 940.0 940.0 940.0

Propylene FOB Korea 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 800.0 742.0 742.0 725.0 712.0 712.0

Butadiene FOB Korea 640.0 640.0 645.0 650.0 650.0 660.0 655.0 650.0 650.0 670.0

HDPE CFR FE Asia 1,090.0 1,100.0 1,110.0 1,110.0 1,125.0 1,125.0 1,135.0 1,135.0 1,140.0 1,140.0

LDPE CFR FE Asia 1,110.0 1,115.0 1,115.0 1,135.0 1,135.0 1,135.0 1,135.0 1,150.0 1,150.0 1,150.0

LLDPE CFR FE Asia 1,190.0 1,115.0 1,115.0 1,120.0 1,125.0 1,130.0 1,145.0 1,145.0 1,145.0 1,145.0

MEG CFR China 755.0 752.0 732.0 727.0 737.0 733.0 730.0 719.0 718.0 704.0

PP CFR FE Asia 968.0 968.0 968.0 968.0 968.0 968.0 968.0 968.0 968.0 983.0

PX CFR China 744.5 757.0 755.0 771.0 795.0 779.5 761.5 745.5 742.0 722.0

PTA CFR China 575.0 577.0 575.0 575.0 580.0 585.0 575.0 567.0 567.0 563.0

Benzene FOB Korea 620.5 625.0 632.0 644.5 684.0 642.0 608.5 590.5 590.5 570.0

Toluene FOB Korea 586.0 587.0 574.0 576.0 605.0 597.0 563.5 543.5 516.5 502.5

Xylene FOB Korea 591.0 591.0 586.0 596.0 600.0 600.0 586.0 576.0 571.0 561.0

SM FOB Korea 892.5 892.5 884.5 884.5 886.5 883.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 821.5

Weekly Price Last Week 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 2013avg. 2014avg. 2015acc.

Spot Price Naphtha CFR Japan 432.5 428.0 511.0 710.0 843.5 949.0 961.0 923.0 865.9 436.0

Change, % 1.1 (15.4) (39.1) (48.7) (54.4) (55.0) (53.1) (50.0) (0.8)

Ethylene CFR SE Asia 895.0 925.0 980.0 1,325.0 1,492.5 1,420.0 1,452.5 1,353.8 1,401.1 941.3

Change, % (3.2) (8.7) (32.5) (40.0) (37.0) (38.4) (33.9) (36.1) (4.9)

Propylene CFR SE Asia 740 0 710 0 675 0 1 185 0 1 267 5 1 390 0 1 380 0 1 326 5 1 254 2 725 0Propylene CFR SE Asia 740.0 710.0 675.0 1,185.0 1,267.5 1,390.0 1,380.0 1,326.5 1,254.2 725.0

Change, % 4.2 9.6 (37.6) (41.6) (46.8) (46.4) (44.2) (41.0) 2.1

Butadiene CFR SE Asia 625.0 625.0 940.0 975.0 1,405.0 1,450.0 1,435.0 1,441.1 1,281.7 741.3

Change, % 0.0 (33.5) (35.9) (55.5) (56.9) (56.4) (56.6) (51.2) (15.7)

Benzene CFR SE Asia 685.0 575.0 660.0 1,132.5 1,207.5 1,375.0 1,367.5 1,327.9 1,243.1 637.5

Change, % 19.1 3.8 (39.5) (43.3) (50.2) (49.9) (48.4) (44.9) 7.5

Toluene CFR SE Asia 600.0 575.0 625.0 1,045.0 1,120.0 1,157.5 1,215.0 1,203.7 1,082.5 597.5

Change, % 4.3 (4.0) (42.6) (46.4) (48.2) (50.6) (50.2) (44.6) 0.4

Xylene CFR SE Asia 600.0 562.5 615.0 940.0 1,050.0 1,155.0 1,210.0 1,201.1 1,055.7 591.9

Change, % 6.7 (2.4) (36.2) (42.9) (48.1) (50.4) (50.0) (43.2) 1.4

Spread Ethylene -Naphtha 462.5 497.0 469.0 615.0 649.0 471.0 491.5 430.8 535.2 505.3

Change, % (6.9) (1.4) (24.8) (28.7) (1.8) (5.9) 7.4 (13.6) (8.5)

Propylene -Naphtha 307.5 282.0 164.0 475.0 424.0 441.0 419.0 403.5 388.3 289.0

Change, % 9.0 87.5 (35.3) (27.5) (30.3) (26.6) (23.8) (20.8) 6.4

Butadiene -Naphtha 192.5 197.0 429.0 265.0 561.5 501.0 474.0 518.1 415.9 305.3

Change, % (2.3) (55.1) (27.4) (65.7) (61.6) (59.4) (62.8) (53.7) (36.9)

Benzene -Naphtha 252.5 147.0 149.0 422.5 364.0 426.0 406.5 404.9 377.3 201.5

Change, % 71.8 69.5 (40.2) (30.6) (40.7) (37.9) (37.6) (33.1) 25.3

Toluene -Naphtha 167.5 147.0 114.0 335.0 276.5 208.5 254.0 280.7 216.6 161.5

Change, % 13.9 46.9 (50.0) (39.4) (19.7) (34.1) (40.3) (22.7) 3.7

Xylene -Naphtha 167.5 134.5 104.0 230.0 206.5 206.0 249.0 278.1 189.9 155.9

Change, % 24.5 61.1 (27.2) (18.9) (18.7) (32.7) (39.8) (11.8) 7.5

자료 : Cischem, Platts, Bloomberg, SK증권

참고 : Spread는 Polymer와 Naphtha의 가격차이임

Page 7: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

Weekly Price Last Week 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD 2013avg. 2014avg. 2015acc.

Spot Price HDPE CFR SE Asia 1,155.0 1,180.0 1,230.0 1,550.0 1,570.0 1,500.0 1,520.0 1,467.0 1,524.9 1,191.3

Change, % (2.1) (6.1) (25.5) (26.4) (23.0) (24.0) (21.3) (24.3) (3.0)

MEG CFR SE Asia 740.0 707.5 775.0 855.0 912.5 1,005.0 1,032.5 1,053.2 934.1 734.4

Change, % 4.6 (4.5) (13.5) (18.9) (26.4) (28.3) (29.7) (20.8) 0.8

PVC CFR SE Asia 815.0 795.0 795.0 1,000.0 1,010.0 1,050.0 1,005.0 1,014.5 1,013.9 800.0

Change, % 2.5 2.5 (18.5) (19.3) (22.4) (18.9) (19.7) (19.6) 1.9

PP CFR SE Asia 965.0 1,000.0 1,140.0 1,475.0 1,510.0 1,540.0 1,535.0 1,487.7 1,503.0 1,058.8

Change, % (3.5) (15.4) (34.6) (36.1) (37.3) (37.1) (35.1) (35.8) (8.9)

2-EH CFR Korea 935.0 935.0 1,130.0 1,355.0 1,420.0 1,430.0 1,420.0 1,470.2 1,397.1 992.5

Change, % 0.0 (17.3) (31.0) (34.2) (34.6) (34.2) (36.4) (33.1) (5.8)

ABS CFR SE Asia 1,465.0 1,515.0 1,585.0 1,890.0 1,925.0 1,940.0 1,905.0 1,949.9 1,897.7 1,522.5

Change, % (3.3) (7.6) (22.5) (23.9) (24.5) (23.1) (24.9) (22.8) (3.8)

SBR CFR SE Asia 1,335.0 1,415.0 1,495.0 1,805.0 2,015.0 1,935.0 1,920.0 1,877.5 1,430.0

Change, % (5.7) (10.7) (26.0) (33.7) (31.0) (30.5) (28.9) (6.6)

SM CFR SE Asia 920.0 865.0 975.0 1,482.5 1,520.0 1,702.5 1,725.0 1,737.4 1,547.1 909.4

Change, % 6.4 (5.6) (37.9) (39.5) (46.0) (46.7) (47.0) (40.5) 1.2

Caustic FOB NEA 255.0 260.0 275.0 310.0 307.5 320.0 335.0 323.6 310.0 262.5

Change, % (1.9) (7.3) (17.7) (17.1) (20.3) (23.9) (21.2) (17.8) (2.9)

PX CFR SE Asia 812.5 740.0 835.0 1,067.5 1,265.0 1,335.0 1,432.5 1,497.3 1,228.5 791.9

Change, % 9.8 (2.7) (23.9) (35.8) (39.1) (43.3) (45.7) (33.9) 2.6

PO CFR China 1,780.0 1,755.0 1,852.5 2,185.0 2,365.0 2,275.0 2,450.0 2,030.2 2,179.2 1,788.8

Change, % 1.4 (3.9) (18.5) (24.7) (21.8) (27.3) (12.3) (18.3) (0.5)

Caprolactam CFR SE Asia 1,660.0 1,745.0 1,920.0 2,140.0 2,195.0 2,390.0 2,360.0 2,393.9 2,233.4 1,780.0

Change, % (4.9) (13.5) (22.4) (24.4) (30.5) (29.7) (30.7) (25.7) (6.7)

PTA CFR SE Asia 602.5 585.0 645.0 820.0 920.0 962.5 1,005.0 1,077.4 911.7 611.3

Change, % 3.0 (6.6) (26.5) (34.5) (37.4) (40.0) (44.1) (33.9) (1.4)

Spread HDPE 722.5 752.0 719.0 840.0 726.5 551.0 559.0 544.0 659.0 755.3

Change, % (3.9) 0.5 (14.0) (0.6) 31.1 29.2 32.8 9.6 (4.3)

MEG 307.5 279.5 264.0 145.0 69.0 56.0 71.5 130.3 68.2 298.4

Change, % 10.0 16.5 112.1 345.7 449.1 330.1 136.0 350.7 3.1

PVC 382.5 367.0 284.0 290.0 166.5 101.0 44.0 91.5 148.0 364.0

Change, % 4.2 34.7 31.9 129.7 278.7 769.3 317.8 158.4 5.1

PP 532.5 572.0 629.0 765.0 666.5 591.0 574.0 564.8 637.1 622.8

Change, % (6.9) (15.3) (30.4) (20.1) (9.9) (7.2) (5.7) (16.4) (14.5)

2-EH 502.5 507.0 619.0 645.0 576.5 481.0 459.0 547.2 531.3 556.5

Change, % (0.9) (18.8) (22.1) (12.8) 4.5 9.5 (8.2) (5.4) (9.7)

ABS 1,032.5 1,087.0 1,074.0 1,180.0 1,081.5 991.0 944.0 1,026.9 1,031.9 1,086.5

Change, % (5.0) (3.9) (12.5) (4.5) 4.2 9.4 0.5 0.1 (5.0)

SBR BD spread 710.0 790.0 555.0 830.0 610.0 485.0 485.0 595.8 688.8

Change, % (10.1) 27.9 (14.5) 16.4 46.4 46.4 19.2 3.1

SM 487.5 437.0 464.0 772.5 676.5 753.5 764.0 814.4 681.2 473.4

Change, % 11.6 5.1 (36.9) (27.9) (35.3) (36.2) (40.1) (28.4) 3.0

Caustic

Change, %

PX 380.0 312.0 324.0 357.5 421.5 386.0 471.5 574.4 362.6 355.9

Change, % 21.8 17.3 6.3 (9.8) (1.6) (19.4) (33.8) 4.8 6.8

PO propylene sprea 1,040.0 1,045.0 1,177.5 1,000.0 1,097.5 885.0 1,070.0 703.7 925.0 1,063.8

Change, % (0.5) (11.7) 4.0 (5.2) 17.5 (2.8) 47.8 12.4 (2.2)

Caprolactam benzene spread 975.0 1,170.0 1,260.0 1,007.5 987.5 1,015.0 992.5 1,066.0 990.3 1,142.5

Change, % (16.7) (22.6) (3.2) (1.3) (3.9) (1.8) (8.5) (1.5) (14.7)

PTA px spread 33.8 67.0 60.5 72.8 34.5 28.0 2.3 29.2 51.8 56.9

Change, % (49.6) (44.2) (53.6) (2.2) 20.5 1,400.0 15.5 (34.8) (40.7)

자료 : Cischem, Platts, SK증권

참고 : Spread는 Naphtha spread로 일괄적용

Page 8: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

Global peers

Currency 01/29 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD MKT CAP

(mil USD) 14E 15E 14E 15E 14E 15E

Petrochemical

Dow Chemical USD 45.0 4.6 (0.8) (2.2) (5.0) (15.8) 0.6 (1.3) 54,251 15.2 14.7 2.1 2.0 7.9 8.2

Du Pont USD 72.7 1.4 (3.2) (2.8) 8.8 9.8 19.8 (1.7) 56,224 18.1 17.3 4.2 4.5 10.1 10.2

Eastman USD 68.6 (0.0) (5.3) (10.1) (7.9) (15.8) (8.1) (9.5) 11,496 9.9 9.2 2.3 2.1 7.1 6.2

BASF EUR 79.5 2.3 4.6 12.3 15.9 (1.6) 0.9 13.8 98,866 14.5 14.3 2.6 2.4 8.5 8.3

Akzo Nobel EUR 64.3 0.7 3.4 12.8 24.2 17.6 18.9 11.5 17,910 20.8 17.1 2.8 2.6 10.5 9.1

Arkema EUR 62.6 1.3 2.5 13.5 32.2 (8.4) (19.0) 13.6 6,885 17.3 14.3 1.6 1.5 7.3 6.0

Lanxess EUR 41.7 (1.0) 10.3 7.5 2.1 (14.0) (14.4) 8.3 5,534 21.0 19.3 1.7 1.6 6.7 6.6

Sumitomo Chemical JPY 473 (3.1) 3.5 (2.7) 29.2 20.4 6.3 (1.3) 7,213 15.8 10.4 1.1 1.0 9.0 8.1

Mitsubishi Chemical JPY 611 (0.9) 5.9 2.4 15.7 33.5 34.5 3.8 6,696 16.7 13.1 0.9 0.9 7.5 6.3

Shin-Etsu Chemical JPY 7,883 (1.5) 1.6 (2.0) 17.6 20.8 35.1 0.2 24,683 25.7 23.2 1.8 1.7 9.8 8.9

Asahi Kasei JPY 1,156 (0.9) 3.6 2.8 33.7 40.5 41.5 4.5 11,248 15.8 14.8 1.6 1.5 7.3 6.9

JSR JPY 2,034 (1.6) 7.0 (3.7) 7.6 11.9 11.6 (2.0) 4,248 16.4 14.6 1.4 1.3 6.8 6.0

Nitto Denko JPY 7,124 (1.1) (0.7) 3.1 24.0 52.5 58.4 5.2 7,651 17.8 15.9 2.1 1.9 7.7 6.9

SABIC SAR 86.3 (2.5) 9.1 (3.5) (23.1) (32.9) (23.3) 2.9 89,986 10.3 12.9 1.6 1.5 5.7 7.3

Yansab SAR 47.7 (4.6) 9.6 (4.4) (26.1) (34.3) (35.1) 0.1 11,023 10.9 13.3 1.8 1.7 7.0 8.6

Formosa Plastics TWD 77.2 0.3 1.3 7.1 10.6 (0.6) (1.0) 6.8 16,369 23.4 20.3 1.8 1.7 35.2 29.3

Formosa Fiber TWD 69.6 (0.6) 0.9 3.0 (0.9) (5.8) (12.3) 4.0 15,342 24.6 21.2 1.5 1.4 17.1 16.2

Nan Ya Plastics TWD 65.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 6.1 (8.7) (0.6) 0.3 17,282 16.3 17.2 1.7 1.7 19.6 18.0

Sinopec Shanghai CNY 4.08 (0.2) (1.7) (4.9) 15.3 24.0 37.8 (5.8) 4,565 #N/A N/A 24.7 2.5 2.3 29.4 10.3

Sinopec Yizheng(FibeCNY 6.19 3.0 9.6 5.6 47.0 122.7 126.7 5.8 2,134 33.8 28.5 3.3 2.9 7.3 6.6

Reliance INR 929 2.5 5.2 3.6 (2.3) (7.6) 11.1 4.7 42,972 12.4 11.4 1.3 1.2 9.6 8.4

Industries Qatar QAR 149.2 0.1 2.8 (14.0) (23.5) (14.0) (17.9) (11.2) 30,203 13.7 12.5 2.7 2.7 54.9 51.8

PTT Chemical THB 56.3 0.4 3.7 8.7 (8.9) (15.1) (20.2) 9.8 9,654 10.4 10.6 1.4 1.3 5.8 5.9

Petronas MYR 5.1 (3.6) (3.0) (6.2) (16.4) (24.6) (23.1) (5.9) 15,942 14.4 13.9 1.8 1.7 7.1 6.7

PBRPER EV/EBITDA

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

LG화학 KRW 199,000 0.0 3.1 8.4 (1.2) (31.6) (23.5) 9.9 16,032 0.0 12.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 5.0

롯데케미칼 KRW 171,000 (1.7) 8.6 5.6 15.5 (3.7) (19.1) 6.9 6,745 22.2 12.9 0.9 0.9 7.9 5.8

한화케미칼 KRW 12,400 (0.8) 3.8 2.1 2.5 (33.5) (38.0) 5.1 2,611 28.9 15.9 0.5 0.5 11.3 9.6

금호석유 KRW 87,600 (1.1) 1.3 7.0 12.5 (3.5) (0.7) 8.7 2,500 32.9 16.6 1.9 1.8 12.8 9.8

SKC KRW 29,600 (0.5) 5.0 7.6 2.4 (16.9) (4.7) 11.3 1,046 14.7 9.2 0.9 0.8 9.3 8.2

국도화학 KRW 43,000 (0.1) (0.2) 1.2 2.0 (20.2) (16.5) 4.6 278 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.7 0.0 5.3

효성 KRW 3,445 (0.6) (7.9) 20.0 16.6 (23.4) (38.6) 21.3 2,212 9.0 8.2 0.9 0.8 9.1 8.6

Average (0.3) 2.7 2.5 7.3 0.7 2.8 4.0

Refinery

Valero USD 52.1 1.1 8.5 4.1 7.3 4.5 1.3 5.2 27,734 8.6 10.1 1.3 1.2 4.3 4.9

Conoco Phillips USD 62.8 0.4 (3.8) (10.4) (11.2) (25.8) (4.6) (9.0) 80,636 11.8 45.0 1.4 1.4 4.4 6.3

Formosa PetrochemicTWD 67.2 (1.2) 0.0 (1.9) (5.1) (13.1) (11.8) (2.2) 23,930 35.3 24.7 2.7 2.6 18.8 14.9

Tesoro USD 80.4 (1.7) 5.1 6.4 20.1 34.1 55.1 8.2 6,887 11.7 12.9 2.2 2.1 5.7 5.7

Marathon Petroleum USD 90.0 0.8 7.2 (1.2) 3.0 13.0 4.0 (0.3) 26,045 12.1 12.1 2.4 2.1 6.4 6.2

Devon Energy USD 58.7 0.5 (4.1) (4.0) (1.7) (24.1) (0.5) (4.1) 23,958 11.4 17.2 1.1 1.0 5.0 5.7

Hollyfrontier USD 35.0 1.2 6.3 (7.6) (20.8) (22.4) (23.5) (6.5) 9,513 12.1 12.8 1.2 1.2 5.3 5.4

Phillips 66 USD 70.5 3.1 4.7 (3.2) (7.7) (14.5) (5.0) (1.7) 44,474 11.1 11.2 1.8 1.7 6.2 6.6

Murphy Oil USD 43.7 0.6 (9.2) (13.6) (16.0) (35.0) (27.8) (13.5) 11,307 13.0 #N/A N/A 0.9 1.0 3.2 5.6

JX Holdings JPY 435.8 (1.7) (2.5) (7.6) (4.3) (19.3) (14.4) (7.2) 12,437 74.8 7.3 0.5 0.5 19.5 10.0

Cosmo Oil JPY 158.0 (1.3) (1.3) (7.1) (6.5) (24.4) (22.5) (7.6) 1,693 #N/A N/A 8.9 0.6 0.6 19.3 11.3

Idemitsu JPY 1,976.0 (1.2) 0.1 (1.3) (5.1) (8.5) (14.1) (1.1) 3,603 #N/A N/A 8.0 0.5 0.4 13.0 8.3

Tonengeneral JPY 1,044.0 (0.9) 1.3 1.4 10.4 14.1 15.9 1.5 4,986 39.3 21.9 1.3 1.3 3,108.4 14.0

Nesteoil EUR 24.6 2.2 12.9 23.8 45.9 76.8 85.2 22.7 4,655 17.7 15.7 2.1 2.0 10.3 8.8

Ashland USD 117.4 0.7 (1.7) (2.9) 10.4 8.7 24.8 (2.0) 7,291 19.7 16.4 2.3 2.5 9.0 8.7

Fuchs Petrolub EUR 36.3 0.6 3.7 8.4 23.6 15.6 7.1 9.2 6,087 23.2 21.8 5.7 5.0 14.2 13.4

SK이노베이션 KRW 92,500 (3.0) (0.2) 7.7 3.9 (12.7) (27.2) 8.7 10,926 N/A 12.5 0.6 0.6 20.2 8.6

S-Oil KRW 58,200 0.0 3.7 19.6 41.3 5.8 (15.2) 20.2 7,186 N/A 16.9 1.4 1.3 61.6 10.0

GS KRW 41,550 0.0 4.3 3.4 (1.5) (11.2) (19.0) 3.9 4,435 N/A 12.1 0.6 0.6 27.9 11.6

Average 0.0 1.8 0.7 4.5 (2.0) 0.4 1.3

* Bloomberg 기준 / valuation multiple 또한 Bloomberg consensus 기준임

* 국내업체의 multiple은 Dataguidepro 기준임

Page 9: 1. News Summary (3 page) 2015년 1월 30일 - Priden · 2015-01-29 · News Comment Headline (출처: Bloomberg) WTI Comment (출처: 연합뉴스) 제목 Shell 4Q14 earning shock로

Global peers

Currency 01/29 1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD MKT CAP

(mil USD) 14E 15E 14E 15E 14E 15E

E&P/Shale

Exxon Mobil USD 88 (0.4) (5.7) (5.9) (7.4) (15.4) (7.9) (5.3) 415,489 12.2 20.3 2.0 2.0 5.6 7.5

BP GBP 425 (1.9) (0.8) 1.6 (4.6) (12.3) (10.9) 3.4 146,151 10.1 15.7 0.9 0.9 4.1 4.9

Shell EUR 2,060 (4.3) (5.4) (6.7) (7.9) (14.7) (3.1) (4.3) 228,766 8.6 13.3 1.1 1.0 3.8 4.9

Chevron USD 103 (0.7) (5.4) (9.1) (12.1) (22.2) (11.2) (8.2) 223,088 10.7 22.1 1.3 1.3 4.4 5.9

Total EUR 45 (1.4) (0.3) 2.7 (3.2) (14.0) 6.0 5.6 137,581 9.4 13.0 1.2 1.1 4.3 5.1

Sinopec CNY 6 (2.8) (6.4) (1.4) 19.6 19.1 37.2 (5.1) 87,784 10.8 12.7 1.2 1.1 5.8 6.1

Petrochina CNY 12 (2.2) (5.1) 16.0 55.8 53.6 58.7 10.8 222,582 17.6 20.5 1.8 1.7 7.7 8.3

CNOOC CNY 19 (0.2) (1.0) (7.5) 7.2 7.5 (10.9) (7.2) 15,564 11.5 11.4 1.9 1.8 7.4 7.9

Gazprom RUB 145 (1.8) (4.3) 7.0 4.7 10.4 (1.9) 11.3 99,671 2.8 2.8 0.2 0.2 1.9 2.2

Rosneft RUB 227 (2.1) (6.3) 12.3 (3.0) 2.8 (7.2) 15.7 73,724 4.8 5.3 0.5 0.5 2.7 3.1

Anadarko USD 80 1.2 (1.7) (4.4) (12.2) (26.6) (1.4) (2.9) 40,911 17.3 88.0 1.9 1.9 4.4 6.9

Petrobras BRL 9 (3.1) (14.6) (14.9) (37.6) (55.4) (40.9) (12.7) 76,072 5.5 5.4 0.3 0.3 5.3 4.8

Lukoil USD 41 (2.3) (6.1) 3.0 (12.7) (25.1) (25.9) 4.1 47,589 4.1 4.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A

Kinder USD 102 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 24.6 28.5 0.0 34,750 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

Statoil NOK 128 (3.5) (6.8) (3.5) (19.1) (29.7) (13.7) (2.1) 76,826 9.8 16.4 1.1 1.1 2.2 2.7

BHP AUD 29 0.0 0.3 (2.5) (14.3) (25.9) (21.5) (1.4) 166,879 13.8 14.3 1.5 1.4 6.1 6.1

PTT E&P THB 113 1.8 3.2 (1.7) (21.3) (32.3) (28.0) 0.9 18,930 9.6 11.6 1.1 1.1 2.9 3.5

Petronas gas MYR 22 (0.1) 0.5 (0.4) 0.9 (5.8) (3.4) 0.2 13,585 25.7 24.5 4.1 3.9 14.3 13.7

Chesapeake USD 19 0.4 (2.1) (4.0) (11.0) (29.0) (25.3) (1.8) 18,071 11.7 21.1 0.9 0.9 5.3 6.7

Noble Energy USD 48 3.1 1.6 (0.7) (18.3) (30.6) (24.9) 0.2 22,724 19.7 41.3 1.7 1.7 6.0 6.6

Average 0 (1.0) (3.3) (1.0) (4.4) (11.0) (5.4) 0.1

PV

WACKER EUR 91.9 (2.3) 2.6 (0.1) 4.2 1.3 7.9 0.9 6,067 20.0 28.0 2.1 2.0 7.0 6.1

GCL-Poly HKD 1.7 (4.0) (2.9) (4.5) (36.5) (36.5) (37.4) (6.1) 5,384 11.7 8.8 1.4 1.2 7.6 6.7

PER PBR EV/EBITDA

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

REC NOK 102.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.5 20.1 28.3 0.0 515 11.2 8.8 2.0 1.6 7.0 5.5

SunEdison USD 19.2 1.4 (0.1) (3.1) 2.3 (9.8) 36.6 (1.6) 3,746 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 35.9 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 35.9

Canadian Solar USD 19.8 0.2 4.2 (16.1) (33.1) (23.6) (50.2) (18.1) 1,837 4.9 4.2 2.4 1.7 4.0 3.6

JA Solar USD 7.8 0.3 1.6 (3.1) (5.3) (15.8) (16.7) (5.1) 404 8.3 6.1 0.5 0.4 3.5 3.6

Trina Solar USD 8.9 2.0 5.6 2.8 (15.1) (23.2) (39.4) (4.3) 1,154 10.3 7.8 0.7 0.6 6.5 5.0

Solar City USD 49.4 0.6 2.0 (12.2) (9.1) (33.0) (31.5) (7.6) 5,926 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 7.9 10.6 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

Yingli USD 1.9 0.0 (1.0) (12.7) (34.5) (42.3) (68.6) (18.3) 1,018 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 15.4 #N/A N/A 12.6 7.6

First Solar USD 42.4 (0.8) 1.1 (4.6) (24.6) (35.2) (14.8) (5.0) 4,942 15.9 9.5 0.9 0.8 5.9 4.4

한화솔라원 USD 1.0 (1.0) 1.0 (11.7) (52.4) (54.6) (64.1) (10.9) 230 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

OCI KRW 78,500 (0.6) 4.9 (0.8) (14.7) (53.0) (58.7) (0.1) 4,216 N/A 20.9 0.7 0.7 7.2 5.6

웅진에너지 KRW 1,570 2.6 5.4 19.4 13.4 (37.2) (28.3) 17.2 136 N/A 0.7 0.7 7.2 5.6 9.0

신성솔라에너지 KRW 1,385 4.9 21.5 37.1 35.1 11.7 20.4 35.8 60 N/A 0.7 7.2 5.6 9.0 8.2

Average 0.2 3.3 (0.7) (10.6) (23.7) (22.6) (1.7)

Gas Company

Towngas China HKD 6.8 (0.6) (1.2) (14.3) (14.7) (24.7) (27.0) (13.9) 3,123 14.9 12.6 1.3 1.2 15.8 13.8

Kulun HKD 8.1 (1.8) 0.9 10.9 (20.8) (38.6) (37.5) 11.1 13,520 10.6 10.9 1.2 1.1 5.9 5.4

Beijing Enterprise HKD 59.7 (0.6) (2.1) (1.0) (5.2) (12.7) (10.6) (1.9) 10,918 15.3 12.8 1.3 1.2 16.0 14.2

ENN Energy HKD 46.9 2.2 (1.9) 7.2 (4.9) (15.8) (8.1) 6.5 7,113 18.1 16.0 3.6 3.0 9.7 8.6

China Resources GasHKD 18.9 1.8 (0.6) (2.8) (14.4) (23.4) (22.6) (6.1) 7,004 16.4 13.9 2.6 2.2 10.7 9.3

China Gas Holdings HKD 12.2 (0.3) (0.7) 1.5 (9.6) (21.5) 10.9 0.0 7,081 18.8 15.3 3.3 2.8 14.0 11.7

Shenzen Gas HKD 11.2 0.9 1.4 (0.5) (2.6) 16.7 13.1 (1.6) 2,113 9.8 10.0 1.2 1.1 8.4 8.9

Shann Xi CNY 11.6 (1.2) 0.3 5.5 1.3 20.3 22.2 7.6 1,599 27.7 20.6 2.9 2.6 14.2 11.7

Suntien HKD 1.8 (3.8) (3.8) 9.4 (13.8) (26.8) (48.2) 8.0 1,617 12.5 9.5 0.7 0.6 7.3 5.9

China Oil & Gas HKD 1.0 0.0 (2.0) (3.9) (20.2) (27.7) (23.3) 1.0 831 10.0 8.5 1.3 1.1 5.7 4.5

Average (0.3) (1.0) 1.2 (10.5) (15.4) (13.1) 1.1

EV

LG화학 KRW 199,000 0.0 3.1 8.4 (1.2) (31.6) (23.5) 9.9 16,032 14.2 11.6 1.2 1.1 5.9 5.3

삼성SDI KRW 126,000 (1.9) 8.6 5.4 2.9 (20.3) (12.2) 8.6 6,083 55.8 24.4 0.8 0.8 15.2 9.5

Panasonic JPY 1370.5 (2.1) 3.4 (6.3) 10.6 10.5 11.0 (4.0) 29,663 17.4 15.1 1.8 1.6 5.5 5.1

GS Yuasa JPY 525.0 (0.9) (1.3) 0.6 (3.0) (26.3) (8.7) 1.9 2,328 13.8 11.3 1.5 1.3 7.6 6.7

NEC JPY 361.0 (0.6) 1.4 1.7 (3.7) (7.4) 27.1 2.3 7,243 18.5 13.3 1.3 1.2 7.0 6.5

BYD Auto CNY 39.8 (1.6) (0.1) 8.9 (17.3) (22.7) 0.0 4.2 14,090 96.0 44.0 3.8 3.6 19.1 15.1

Tesla Motors USD 205.2 2.9 1.8 (9.1) (13.8) (8.8) 17.1 (7.7) 21,482 353.2 74.6 27.5 22.3 81.6 33.6

Kandi Technologies USD 13 1 1 2 3 1 (0 9) (15 4) (20 9) 10 7 (6 4) 438 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/AKandi Technologies USD 13.1 1.2 3.1 (0.9) (15.4) (20.9) 10.7 (6.4) 438 #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

Average (0.4) 2.5 1.1 (5.1) (15.9) 2.7 1.1

* Bloomberg 기준 / valuation multiple 또한 Bloomberg consensus 기준임