Top Trends in the New Year | The Manager in the Future | The Trend Tornado | Reflecting on the Past for the Future

2011 Trendswww.watercoolernewsletter.com

volume 5 issue 3 january/february 2011

Trends Expert

Dr. James CantonFuturist, Author, and Visionary Business Advisor

It’s 2011, and it’s no surprise that the major shift in the marketplace is the tectonic transformation we’ve been watching for more than five years: the Internet as a channel for reaching consumers, creating a new ecosystem in the marketplace for communicating in a real-time innovation economy.

There is an overwhelming “innovation juggernaut” of new technology exploding onto the scene that is redefining the fundamental relationships between customers, organizations, channels, vendors, hirers, and the market, and it’s making traditional marketing obsolete. Leading companies are shifting advertising away from usual channels like TV and print ads to communications like Twitter and Facebook. Technology will go beyond social networking and become a true on-demand innovation economy through cloud/mobile computing.

And nobody is ready for this. It’s the end of business as usual, and many organizations are not geared up for how fast the innovation is emerging. Sadly, most are operating as they did in the twentieth century – with some functions still stuck in the nineteenth! Most are still dealing with old legacy systems, HR-based writing, and theories of learning that are a hundred years old. Even R&D groups are hierarchal and paper-driven. Companies will have to re-examine their reason for being – literally what they do and what value they bring that people will pay for – and then transform themselves. That transformation will be tested in 2011.

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TRENDSMarketplace for the

New Year

in the Business

TOP

www.watercoolernewsletter.com2011 Trends 3 2

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5.

3.For the past 25 years, I’ve told leaders that they need a new agility that is more predictive and anticipatory. They must be more like futurists – more attuned to online, cloud-based services that enable skill development and the ability to empower people. This is critically important for organizations because the key driver of success is not just innovation – it’s talent. Currently, most people don’t have the right kind of skills and capabilities to meet the challenges of the aggressive shift to a global, connected economy. We’ve all been concerned about the sustainability and viability of our organizations rather than being predictive.

Traditionally, an organization’s focus on training is for leadership, team building and communication skills, business effectiveness, and such. I’m not saying that we should discard these, but instead that we recast them in light of the new paradigm and focus them on managing complex systems.

We are currently not doing a good job of managing complexity. We need people who

understand how to manage complexity

at a high level, given the transformation in business and the dynamic global economy. If an organization is to be successful, its leaders must understand the fundamental explosion that is happening in organizations in terms of globalization, complexity, and innovation. The chief concern is the forecast that 25% of most organizations will not have the culture of readiness, or “future readiness,” to respond to this challenge and may not be agile enough to survive.

In terms of managing people, these are the key trends Dr. Canton sees for 2011:

Recognizing that we need to keep our workforce whole. Organizations have adopted a new norm: to attempt to get more out of people with less. This is not a sustainable business strategy, and nobody is talking about it. It’s the elephant in the room. Unfortunately, leadership is so terrified of losing their own jobs that they become complicit with this conspiracy. As a futurist, my job is to remind leaders that it’s not sustainable to burn out your workforce or believe that they should be working as hard as you’re working with fewer teammates. This is simply not a sustainable future-focused strategy.

Guaranteeing a better life balance for people. For an organization to deliver on high performance with exceptional teamwork to create quality products and services, it needs the best people. If talented people are let go because of budgets, leaders need to manage their expectations down, not up, or they will lose people. Starting this year, the economy will be recovering. There will be a mad rush to hire top talent, and the best people will leave rather than getting burned out. The U.S. is actually experiencing a “brain drain,” in that top people are realizing that they can make more money and have a better quality of life in Europe or Asia. American productivity and innovativeness are valued around the world, but we are failing to balance quality of life, realistic expectations, and the spectrum of productivity.

Bringing training into the 21st century. What leader would go to the IT department and say, “I need something programmed in COBOL”? But when we look at the way we train people,

we see that we’re using the same systems as 25 years ago. It’s time to devote more innovation to training people using media they are familiar with, like Second Life-type tools and game technology. Many markets have adapted their culture in this way. Healthcare is a good example. Young surgeons all grew up playing computer games, and this is what they’re using in the operating room – robotics, combined with true surgical expertise. We need to rethink the competency opportunities we are providing. We don’t need to throw everything out, but rethink it in terms of more up-to-date technology.

Learning about new ways of thinking. New discoveries in neuroscience tell us that 70% to 80% of behaviors are unconscious motivations. Leaders and trainers need to gain the ability to bring new concepts like brain plasticity and multiple kinds of intelligences to the business to increase learning and manager development. This is the year to get more involved in introducing these ways of thinking and using their possibilities in new learning opportunities.

Preparing for the digital tsunami. In every vertical industry, we’ll see an explosion of digital information – not just data but video, audio, pictures – that organizations will have to make sense of. All of our customers are on social networks, and we’ll need the ability to manage this in organizations. How do we sort through all this and integrate it into our learning systems? In a world where you can Google a site, pay $300, and map your own genome, what can we expect? We will need to work with all kinds of new information about many new and different areas. It’s going to be a tough year to manage information.

Within organizations, we need to create knowledge banks in cloud computing. Our key trends, every application, program, training, capability, storage, virtualization, and modules should all be up in the cloud. Cloud-based knowledge management will be very important. This is a big transformation. Some organizations are future-ready for this; some think they’re still moving paper. Cloud-based knowledge management related to training is very important.

My challenge is for people on every level of your company to be on the leading edge. Don’t wait for your competitors, investors, or customers to wake you up to this! You be the ones to lead.

Dr. James Canton is the author of The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the 21st Century, and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century. He is CEO and Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank that advises business and government on future trends.

For more about Dr. Canton and the Institute for Global Futures, go to www.globalfuturist.com.

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25% of most organizationsmay not have the “futurereadiness” and agilityneeded to survive.

TOP TRENDS in the Business Marketplace for the New Year

2011 Trends4

the

FUTURE is NOW

For traditional managers, the future looks bleak. However, for those who want to coach and develop people, your time has arrived! Just as a business has to meet its customers’ needs, managers must meet the needs of their employees.

Many of today’s managers believe that meeting the needs of their employees means that they have to have all of the answers, solve all the problems, and “tell” others how to implement their solutions. Managers often present their set of assessments, telling employees what they believe, followed by what they want employees to do. Later, managers check in to be sure the job was done correctly, and then tell people how to improve or change to meet their standards or those of the business.

In Dr. Canton’s article (page 1) he challenged people on the organizational level to be on the leading edge. I agree that “the future is now” for managers, and only the great managers will survive – those who know how to ask powerful questions and coach their staff, allowing everyone see their own successes, challenges, opportunities, and even the need for change. Coaching and asking the right questions are the tools that future managers will need to help employees create and implement their own solutions. Managers will engage employees in real conversations that value employees’ experiences and points of view. They will access experiences from inside and outside of the workplace, regarding employees as “whole people” and tapping into their passions, knowledge, and experience. If managers can do this well, in return they will receive the most valued contribution any employee can make – their discretionary effort.

Industry Perspective

By Gary Magenta, Senior Vice President, Root Learning with Mark Blankenship, Vice President, Human Resources, Jack in the Box

Working with staff in this manner requires real coaching skills and the ability to ask powerful questions! Let’s look at two short performance-based dialogues between a manager and an employee.

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Yesterday’s Manager: Manager: Jacob, your performance hasn’t been up to par, and you’ve been taking way too long to get your work done. You didn’t meet the goals set out for you, and you’ve been coming in late and leaving early. Do you understand what I’m talking about?

Jacob: I understand.

M: I need to see some improvement in your performance or we’re going to have a more serious conversation. I also expect you to adhere to our normal work hours. Do you have any questions?

J: No, no questions. I’ll do better. Thank you.

M: Thanks. I know you will.

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The “Manager

of the Future”–

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The Manager of the Future: Manager: Jacob, do you have some time to talk?

Jacob: Yes, I have about a half-hour right now.

M: Good! I’m interested in hearing how things are going with you.

J: Fine – I mean, I’m a bit stressed because of the new system we’ve implemented. I’m not used to the new technology, and it’s taking me twice as long to get my work done.

M: What else?

J: Well, my dad has been really sick, so I’ve had to juggle work with being his primary caregiver.

M: I’m sorry to hear about your dad. It sounds like you have a lot going on right now. How have these challenges affected you?

J: Oh boy! I know that my work performance has suffered, and that’s been weighing on me. I’m also preoccupied with my dad. It’s been hard enough to get to work on time, let alone master the new system.

M: Would it help if we spent the rest of our time together brainstorming some ways to address your performance concerns and the time needed to care for your dad?

J: Ah! That would be great!

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Which dialogue would you rather participate in? Which dialogue will yield the best results, build trust, and ultimately garner Jacob’s discretionary effort?

When I discussed this approach with Mark Blankenship, Vice President, Human Resources at Jack in the Box, he brought up the impact of this kind of leadership on organizational performance as well as growing talent. He said, “If I told you that good leadership and coaching behaviors led to increased engagement, and the correlation between employee engagement and discretionary effort was .72 you might say, ‘Okay – that’s nice.’ If I then told you that the correlation between discretionary effort and sales was .65, you might say, ‘Interesting.’ But what would you say if I told you that if Jack in the Box could move the bottom quartile restaurants as measured on employee engagement to the second quartile, sales would improve by 18% and turnover would go down by 25%? This is exactly the difference in performance achieved by leaders who ask rather than tell, who engage rather than push away, and who see their job as building individual capability instead of managing tasks.”

So for both developing talent and leading an organization to new heights, it comes down to a few simple rules – engage each employee as a whole person, ask powerful questions, and coach your employees to success.

What questions have you asked your employees lately? Share them with me by going to my blog at http://goo.gl/O8W8s.

Leaders need to see their

job as building individual

capability instead of

managing tasks.

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The TREND

Tornado

Recognizing that we need to keep our workforce whole.

1. Dr. Canton says that it’s not sustainable to burn out your workforce. Is this happening at our company? Are we trying to do more with fewer people? Can we name some examples of where this may be happening?

2. If possible burnout is an issue, how do people feel about it? Are they willing to work harder than ever if they’re convinced it’s only for the short term?

According to futurist Dr. James Canton, we should expect an “innovation

juggernaut” of new technology that will make

“business as usual” obsolete. How ready is your

company for the fierce winds of change that will

change our landscape? Gather a group of people

around this sketch and have a conversation about

your “future-readiness.”

Choose the trend or trends that most resonate

with you and your team. Discuss the questions for

each one. Write on the visual whenever you have

something to add and answer the questions on the

lines provided. This should be a group effort!

3. Is leadership at our company aware that people are feeling burned out? If so, what is their reaction? Are they afraid of losing their own jobs? Are people encouraged to just “make do” and get used to a “new normal”?

Guaranteeing a better life balance for people.

1. Workers in Asia and Europe have a better quality of life than Americans, says Dr. Canton, because they work fewer hours and have more free time. Is our company looking at life balance for our people? What kinds of things are we doing?

2. As the economy starts its turnaround, what are the chances that the brightest people from our company will leave to work in places where they have a better life balance? Have you heard any “watercooler talk” about this?

3. What are people’s expectations for “life balance”? What would you like to see at our company to support your own life balance?

Bringing training into the 21st century.

1. Do we consider our training “cutting edge”? Are we using technology to learn? If so, what is the best example of this?

2. If we are still using “old” forms of training, what would you like to see changed? How would newer, tech-savvy ways of learning benefit you?

3. In what ways do you “learn at home” using technology? What elements of this could we use to train people at our workplace?

Learning about new ways of thinking.

1. New discoveries in neuroscience will change the way businesses “think.” What do you know about different ways of thinking? What have you read or heard about?

2. If you knew more about how people learn and think, would it help you do your job better? In what ways?

3. What should our company do to serve the learning and training needs of people who think in different ways? How would that benefit all of us – even the “traditional thinkers”?

Preparing for the digital tsunami.

1. Dr. Canton doesn’t call this a “trend,” but a “tsunami”! How much has this tidal wave of technology affected you in your work life? In your home life?

2. Do you network electronically? Does our company have a way for us to communicate through a website or wiki? Do we use LinkedIn or Facebook or Twitter? If we don’t, why not?

3. Are we prepared to manage the information load that’s approaching? If we still do things the 20th-century way, what will it take for us to make the leap?

Try this with your team!

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Frorr m1776 tott 2011:GOOD STRATEGIES

Never Go Out of Date

www.watercoolernewsletter.com 9 2011 Trends

“We should not look back unless it is to derive useful lessons from past errors, and for the purpose of profiting by dearly bought experience.” George Washington

The beginning of a new year always provides an opportunity to take stock of our current state and speculate on the road ahead. 2011 has the good fortune of having been saddled with about as much baggage as any year in recent memory. Our hope is that this is the year that jobs return, the economy strengthens, we figure out how to harness the promise of new technologies, and we find a way to regain the commitment and engagement of our employees.

Industry Perspective

By David Kalman, Managing Director, Root Learningwith Tom Vitro, Vice President Leadership Development, PepsiCo

At a time when most people are looking to the future, it also makes sense to look back for some inspiration and clarity about how we will enable the shift from the inertia that has been caused by all the fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the marketplace to aligned and aggressive movement toward the goals of our businesses. If we look a long way back, to the beginnings of the United States, we can find some wisdom that could help us in this new decade of the 21st century.

In George Washington’s military and political career, he had a unique ability to inspire deep trust, loyalty, and commitment. As we consider what Washington’s

men endured at Valley Forge during the War for Independence, when things were not going well and even the weather was against them, we can see some parallels between December of 1776 and December of 2010.

Clearly, what we’re facing now isn’t as painful or difficult as what the Colonials had to deal with, but there are some interesting similarities between the emotions – fear, uncertainty, doubt – and what it took to get them “unstuck” and where we are today. It’s reassuring to know that “we’ve been here before” and we know how to move forward. It comes down to returning to what we know works.

In my view, this is what our early leaders had that we still need today:

• Trust and confidence in leadership. Despite hardships, Washington never lost the confidence of his men and their belief that he would lead them to victory. He and his team always projected an aligned front and commitment to the plan regardless of their own differences. The troops never saw a less than confident or less than unified leadership team.

Tom Vitro, VP Leadership Development at PepsiCo, has another take on this approach. He says, “Great leaders surround themselves with talented people, and then trust them to do their jobs. I’ve heard it said that great leaders don’t get people to do their jobs – they get people to do their best. Delegate responsibly, set the bar high, provide support, and remove barriers when necessary, but above all get out of the way. You may be surprised at the engagement, creativity, and ownership that emerge.”

• A solid strategic plan. Washington and his team developed a strategy that used the strength of their forces against the weaknesses of the enemy. In communicating this plan, the leaders built pride and passion that gained buy-in and commitment to the battle plan.

• Constant reminders of the ultimate goal. Each soldier had joined the cause not to “fight” but to help create something together. Washington reminded them that they were not just waging a war – they were fighting for a better way of life, one that hadn’t existed anywhere before.

As we begin another year and look ahead with all the enthusiasm, excitement, and hope that the future deserves, let’s remember that we have the ability to jump-start our organizations and get our people back in the game. If we take a page from Washington’s playbook, it just takes some inspirational leadership, a winning strategy, and a reminder of what our collective efforts are helping to build.

Talk to me! Do you have any other stories about strategic plans from the past that have value now – maybe even more value than they did originally? Go to my blog at http://goo.gl/IUMeS to share.

Great leaders don’t get people to

do their jobs – they get people to

do their best.

www.watercoolernewsletter.com2011 Trends 11 10

By Ed Francis,

Managing Director, Digital Interactive,

Root Learning

Industry Perspective

Every new year brings hundreds of predictions and thoughts about future trends. Just five years ago, Josh Bersin predicted that the LMS market would be booming, yet last month Richard Nantel predicted the demise of the LMS. In this issue of the Watercooler, Dr. James Canton (page 1) presents a more nuanced picture based on the changing nature of the workforce and the “overwhelming innovation juggernaut of new technology.”

In the area of learning and performance programs, the proliferation of social media, gaming, and mobile devices has generated a great deal of excitement. With the Millennials entering the workforce, everyone wants to be on the cutting edge, but it is equally important to keep in mind the cornerstones of the past. Organizations feel a sense of urgency about quickly adopting cutting-edge tools and learning techniques, but there are inherent risks and increased expenses involved. Often, it is good to take a measured approach to addressing trends to determine which is fad and which will produce business results. Let’s take a deep breath, step back from the complexity, and look carefully at the trends involving the Millennials and how to address them.

REFLECTING on the Past to Handle the Future

in Learning and Performance

Who are These People? The issue is simpler if we make one safe assumption: Millennials will not overwhelm the current workforce in the next few years. Even though there are millions in the job market today, the Gen Xers and Baby Boomers still make the rules. With this in mind, the first measured action to take is to help transition the Millennials into the workplace. One of the biggest gaps we’ve observed with new hire training and orientation is the lack of some very basic competencies that are still essential – such as accountability, critical thinking, grooming, and even etiquette. An effective learning and performance program will address these areas.

When we think of Millennials, we think of texting, Facebook, Twitter, and mobile computing. While revolutionary, these are essentially enablers to learning and performance, much as the telephone, the punch card, the personal computer, the laptop – and yes, even the Commodore 64 – were innovative enablers of their respective eras. The question is, “How can we use these enablers to enhance known ways in which people learn?” The obvious answer is speed and access to information…which is little different from open-book tests. Less obvious answers include using multimedia

story lines, or modern-day parables, to help increase retention, or replacing specific instructions with guiding values to allow learners to synthesize information rather than memorize. This doesn’t apply to all content areas, but organizations do tend to provide overly detailed content that can be painfully accessed via two-and-a-half-inch screens. The goal is honorable: mitigate the risk of failure. But the results can be harmful: lack of critical thinking skills. An effective learning and performance program doesn’t provide all the answers. It challenges people to think.

Design vs. Technology A final point – gaming and game theory is closely associated with Millennials, but game theory has been around since the 1930s, with a focus on systems thinking, collaboration, and the end user. Adopting gaming doesn’t mean installing Nintendo Wiis in the workplace; it means using the concepts that make game theory effective.

Dave Ferrier, who leads Training and Development at Comcast, recently commented to Root about integrating video game design into the world of IT services. He said, “Why are so many applications designed to make

sense to the guy who programmed them but not to the person who uses them? Good games allow you to pick them up, start playing, die without too much of a penalty, and then hit reset. But we spend three weeks training our agents how to use our billing system and they still make significant mistakes. I’ve seen M&Ps that are 46 steps long to perform a single activity. Even the most diabolical puzzle game wouldn’t inflict 46 steps on a player to solve it!”

Dave’s words bring to mind a very important lesson: When trying to quickly react to technology trends, even the most effective learning and performance program won’t help a poorly designed system or workflow.

Do you agree or disagree? I’d like to hear what you think. Go to my blog at http://goo.gl/gc5WW and let me know.

An effective learning program

doesn’t provide all the answers.

It challenges people to think.

5470 Main Street Sylvania, OH 43560

Lunch & Learn for Buyers, February 9 Join us for an informal, interactive, and free session to preview our development program for managers – Compass – at a Lunch & Learn in Dallas on February 9.  Email or call Adam Scott at 419-725-1043 ascott@rootlearning.com for more information. Or register by going to http://bit.ly/fqmqUo.

Manager Development Program:  Public and Evaluator Session, March 16 and 17 The Compass Team and Root Learning invite managers and evaluators to attend a session on our Compass Manager Development program on March 16 and 17 at our headquarters in Sylvania, Ohio.  Our highly interactive program gives participants a unique approach to developing outstanding frontline talent for your business.  Space is limited.  For more information, contact Adam Scott ascott@rootlearning.com 419-725-1043 or Alison Lazenby alazenby@rootlearning.com 419-725-1044.

The next issue of the newsletter will be published in March/April 2011

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