JUNE 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 6 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2013年6月刊

The Transition Puzzle

转型与突围

徒步穿越中国重构与突破

FRSH 210x287 V13 PATH_190413.indd 1 19/4/13 3:14 PM

Executive Editor 主编 Liu Chen Deputy Executive Editor 副主编 Philip Liu Editor-at-large 出版人 Graham Earnshaw Associate Editors 编辑 Brenda Yang, Deng Dan

China Economic Review, English Editor 编辑 Jake Spring Staff Writer 撰稿人 Don Weinland Intern 助理 Sam Reynolds

Art Editors 美术编辑 Jason Wong

Sales Director 销售总监 Pierre Zolghadri Account Managers 销售经理 Allen Xu, Ralph Wang, Lolita Bian, Riikka Koponen Distribution Manager 发行经理 Seana Liu

Publisher 出版机构 China Economic Review Publishing Address 地址 The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road London, SE13 5PT, England

Room 1801, 18F, Public Bank Centre, 120 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong ISSN 2073-2570 Hong Kong printer 01 Printing Limited Suite M, 3/F, Tower 3, Kwun Tong Industrial Centre, 448 Kwun Tong Road, Kowloon 广告查询

Hongkong 香港 +852 3174 6136 Shanghai 上海 +86 21 5187 9633-811 Editorial Department 编辑部 letters@chinaeconomicreview.com Sales Department (Ads) 销售部(广告) ads@chinaeconomicreview.com

版权所有，未经版权所有人明确的书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式或媒介全部或部

分翻印或转载本刊内容。所有内容除特别标明外，均为本刊采编人员完成。文章中提

到的货币除特别说明外均指人民币。

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CONTENT OF THIS PUBLICATION CANNOT BE

REPRODUCED IN PART OR IN WHOLE BY ANY PERSON IN ANY JURISDICTION

WITHOUT WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER.

EDITOR'S NOTE | 编者的话

JUNE 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 6 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2013年6月刊

The Transition Puzzle

转型与突围

徒步穿越中国重构与突破

本期封面故事聚焦中国企业的转型与升级。中国企业特别是制造

业的整体运营成本连续攀升；发展中经济体在不断崛起，成熟

的制造业面临重新布局；经济大环境的不确定因素在持续增加，信息化

时代竞争加剧，产品同质化现象日趋严重。

信息技术的爆发式成长推动着传统行业的升级换代。云时代基于

云计算机技术，源于以社交为主的信息经济逐步转向大数据和移动互联

网时代。云管理模式充分运用了社交技术、移动科技、云计算等多种新

技术，而技术的突破可能会引发全面的变革，中国企业能否抓住云管理

的契机成功转型？

上海WTO事务咨询中心总裁王新奎教授将云时代的变革总结为

“智能制造和数字制造相结合的新产业革命”。国际贸易和投资规则因

这一变革而调整和重构。云计算提供了以人为核心的巨大平台，人人都

可以在这一平台上创新。而企业家必须面对的挑战是能否再度进入彼

得· 德鲁克所倡导的“企业家状态”。

招商银行前行长马蔚华指出，云时代必然会对像银行这样的服务

业产生影响，在某种意义上会决定其生存和发展。中国银行业的国际化

程度还很低，当务之急是提升管理。他相信云计算在对银行构成挑战的

同时，必定会带来巨大的发展机遇和光明的前途。

China’s transition grows more transparent by the day as

growth slows and forces both Chinese industry and the

economy to mature. China Economic Review focuses in on

this massive shift in this issue. First, the magazine turns to manu-

facturing experts at AlixPartners who offer insight into what will

happen when it costs as much to base factories in China as in the

US – a fast-approaching tipping point. The issue then progresses

to the ever important role that central policy plays in China’s

transition and how change is on the way, even if politicians are

taking their time. Last, we consider the shifting landscape of

technology as firms transition from start-ups to behemoths and

crowd the market. The pressure is on all the more for companies

like Tencent Holdings to innovate – and surely holds lessons for

firms across industries.

June 201304

目录 CONTENT

新观察

8 所想即所得

12聚焦

专栏

16重构与突破

20生存还是毁灭

访谈

26代表成都 对话世界

封面故事

31云端突击

38挑战全球化

42解码微信营销

46汽车后市场嬗变

44

48

The House View

10 In the sweet spot

Month in Review

14 Newsbriefs

Column

18 Domestic drama

22 Bad seeds

Report

48 Bringing down the house

50 Breaking the ice

64 Picking up the tab

66 An oasis of reform

封面故事转型与突围30

8

20

June 2013 05

64

70

焦点挪威

52积极信号

54新突破 新愿景

57更活跃 更开放

58以市场换创新

话题

62 O2O模式：看上去很美

68 陆游眼里的房价

看中国

70汉字的魅力

生活·晏子西游记

72青梅与啤酒

Cover story

34 The parity puzzle

40 Backed into a corner

44 The trillion-renminbi question

Spotlight: Norway

53 Light of the north

55 Renewable relations

57 Hands across the ice

59 Innovate like a Norsk

Looking at China

71 Chinese character magic

Travel journal

73 Money advice

50

55

Cover storyThe Transition Puzzle34TheUSwillmatchChinaonthecostofmanufacturingby2015.Companiesinbothcountriesmustadapt,writeIvoNaumannandSteveMaurer

目录 CONTENT

June 201306

新观察

所想即所得3D打印技术的广泛应用尚需时日

窃宝大盗用白手套摸着国宝十二生肖

的头像，将数据扫描进电脑。与此

同时，同伙在机器里瞬间就将一模一样的

兽首制造出来。这是今年贺岁片《十二生

肖》里运用到3D打印技术的场景。

3D打印是一种以三维模型为基础，

以粉末为原料，通过逐层堆积来构造物体

的技术，业内称之为增材制造（Additive

Manufacturing）。与传统制造相比，3D

打印不需要冗长的模具开发过程，省去了

繁琐的切削加工，也不占用大面积的场

地，甚至在家中就能轻松完成。

在5月于上海举行的增材制造技术

全球高峰论坛上，被誉为“中国3D打印

之父”的中国工程院院士卢秉恒教授表

示，3D打印一大特点是“所想即所得”，

只要能在电脑里设计出三维模型，3D打

印机就能实现。可大大缩短新产品开发周

期，帮助中国企业从制造走向创造。

5月在上海举行的首届中国国际技术

进出口交易会上，3D打印集聚了极高的人

气，最让普通观众惊艳的是消费品和生物

医疗产品。不少企业展示了3D打印的人工

骨骼、牙齿等模型，反映出生物医疗领域

是3D打印的重要应用方向。西安交通大学

正在联合有关医学研究机构研究人工肝脏

等活性器官再造课题。中国3D打印技术产

业联盟首席顾问颜永年教授预测，用不了

50年就能打印出所有的人体器官，人确实

有可能成为“造物者”。

美国政府去年宣布建立国家增材制

造创新机构，推动3D打印技术向国家主

流制造技术发展，这一举措刺激了世界舆

论。英国《经济学人》给3D打印戴上了

“工业革命”的高帽。

中国3D打印技术起步不算晚。美国

始于上世纪80年代中期，而中国发端于上

世纪90年代初中期，当时就有西安交通大

学、华中科技大学和清华大学等高校涉足

3D打印领域的研究。但20年后，当前中国

3D打印的大部分应用仍然集中在军工领域

的开发与模具的制造上。而仅从设备数量

上看，美国目前各种3D打印设备的数量已

占全世界40%。

继国家工信部官员去年底表态将推

动3D打印产业化后，国家科技部于今年4

月正式宣布将3D打印技术列入国家863计

划。西北工业大学凝固技术国家重点实验

室主任黄卫东教授透露，关于3D打印技术

的国家性战略正在研究制定中，国内占据

3D打印技术研究前沿的几所高校也正在

积极提出各自的建议。卢秉恒建议，对于

3D打印技术需要制定技术发展路线图，规

划基础研究、产业化、工程应用的发展路

线，从而使其真正实现产业化。

卢秉恒表示，由于精度、效率、成本

因素等限制，3D打印技术主要应用在研发

领域，何时能进入大规模工业应用还无法

预计。他指出，任何技术都不是万能的，

单批小量的复杂零部件制造、难变形材料

加工、需要快速响应的制造等应该是3D打

印技术目前应集中指向的市场部分。

美国消费者电子协会年度报告显示，

随着汽车、航空航天、工业和医疗保健等

领域市场需求的增加，3D打印机的社会需

求量将逐年增长，有望从2011年的17亿美

元增长至2017年的50亿美元。目前3D打

印最大的市场主要在消费品和电子领域，

其后是机动车、医疗和牙科领域。

3D打印技术在给人类打开无限想象

空间的同时，也展现了科技“双刃剑”的

另一面。美国制造出世界首支3D打印手枪

后，3D打印技术的负面消息不断。在枪支

受管制的英国，两名记者用从互联网购买

的3D打印机，在不到36小时内，打印出手

枪部件；并通过安检登上欧洲之星列车。

爱因斯坦说过：“科学是一种强有力

的工具。怎样用它，究竟给人带来幸福还

是带来灾难，全取决于人自己，而不取决

于工具。”如何规避一项重大技术的负面

效应，可能是人类永恒的话题。电脑设计三维模型，3D打印机制造产品

June 201308

THE HOUSE VIE W

April’s inflation figures should cool the government’s urge to play with policy

In the sweet spot

Inflation in China has been quite

the Goldilocks tale this year. First,

inflation was too hot. The con-

sumer price index (CPI), the main

gauge of inflation, hit 3.2% for Febru-

ary, coming close to the government’s

3.5% maximum for the year. Although

Chinese New Year always distorts data

and precipitated much of the increase,

the government still hinted that it

would tighten monetary policy.

Then, the numbers were too cool.

The CPI fell to 2.1% in March, which

was below analyst expectations. With

overall GDP growth slowing in the

first quarter, this revived speculation

that the central government would feel

comfortable enough with the level of

inflation to roll out stimulus spending

or ramp up loans to drive growth. That

money has generally been directed to

infrastructure projects or state-owned

companies in the past, something that

would set back the country’s need to

rebalance toward consumption.

Finally, the April CPI is just right.

The 2.4% year-on-year increase isn’t

high enough to revive any major effort

toward tightening. At the same time,

the rise from the previous month may

discourage regulators from ramping

up stimulus spending. For now, it’s an

inflationary sweet spot that calls for lit-

tle to no policy movement.

The inflation figures were on point.

So much so that analysts are having

a trouble deciding which way policy

should go. “Some people think this

would contribute to tightening, some

people think it would contribute to

loosening. This means the number

itself is not directional,” said Ding

Shuang, senior economist at Citi

Investment Research.

Stand stillEconomists say there is little ground

based on the figures for tightened

lending, a move generally taken when

regulators seek to rein in inflation.

China’s central bank did take action

to drain liquidity just after the inflation

data was released, by selling enough

three-month bills to take RMB10 bil-

lion in cash out of the market. But

that shouldn’t be taken as a tightening

measure, merely an attempt to “mop

up excessive liquidity,” as Ding put it.

The only policy levers that Beijing is

likely to pull would be on food prices,

which were primarily responsible for

the rise in inflation. Beijing could use

subsidies or state reserves to reign in

the price of pork, according to a note

from HSBC Global Research.

While 2.4% remains low, the

upward trend in the figure can’t be

neglected. Some policymakers would

like to spend China to a rebound in

GDP, but too much stimulus could

boost inflation past a safe level.

A penny saved …As regulators quibble over month-to-

month adjustment to monetary policy,

they should also focus on the benefits

of keeping inflation in the range that it

has been in for the last year rather than

whether they need to amp up GDP. A

low rate of inflation is a much needed

ingredient in China’s rebalancing.

Depositors have long lost money

on deposits because inflation has been

higher than nominal interest rates,

which are capped in China, meaning

that the real interest rate is negative.

But since April 2012, Chinese have

taken at least some real returns from

interest on their deposits. Although the

rate has fluctuated, inflation has been

below the 3.3% interest rate on depos-

its for about a year.

Some small return on deposits is a

big deal for China. Chinese held about

US$73 billion in personal deposits in

March, according to the People’s Bank

of China website.

Therefore, even an annual real

interest rate of 0.9% would equate to

US$657 million extra that consumers

could spend. As the country’s tech-

nocrats struggle to muscle the export-

driven economy toward one based on

domestic consumption, increases in

disposable income are key.

Inflation is expected to rise as the

year continues. So returns on deposits

will shrink and perhaps even become

negative. So the sweet spot the govern-

ment found itself for April will slowly

evaporate and may spur policymakers

to tighten the money supply to tamp

down inflation later in the second half

of the year. But at least for now the

government can lay down its policy

tools and enjoy a month or two of

undisturbed growth.

June 201310

RAFFLES HAINAN

While at Raffles, why not visit Hainan?

Legendary service since 1887 Our reputation travels

The new luxury resort at Clearwater Bay

Stay for 3 nights and pay for 2 with complimentary benefits valid until 30 September 2013. Terms and conditions apply.

raffles.com Reservations: (China) +86 898 8338 9888 (US & Canada) +1 800 768 9009 (International) +800 1 RAFFLES or +1 506 870 6794

15.1 CER ENG advert 205x265.indd 1 03/05/2013 10:06

聚焦

热点

李克强出访亚欧四国国务院总理李克强于5月19日至27日对

印度、巴基斯坦、瑞士和德国进行正式访

问。这是他履新后第一次出访，与四国加

深经贸合作是重点之一。中国是德国在亚

太地区最大贸易伙伴，德国是中国在欧洲

最大贸易伙伴；中瑞自贸区建设不断推

进；中印两国确立2015年双边贸易额将达

1000亿美元；近年中国和巴基斯坦双边贸

易增速在20%以上。

欧盟执意制裁中国光伏企业欧盟成员国就欧委会对华光伏征税建议案

进行投票。即使多数成员国投反对票，欧

委员仍可启动临时反倾销与反补贴措施，

制裁中国光伏企业。几十家中国光伏企业

发表联合声明，反对欧盟对华光伏产品征

税。如果欧盟执意征税，双方可能爆发贸

易冲突。

人民币对美元中间价屡创新高5月27日上午，中国货币交易中心授权公

布美元对人民币中间价6.1811，突破5月

24日创下历史低点6.1867。意味着5月人

民币兑美元中间价已经第六次刷新汇改以

来高点，累计上升超过300点。

银行业总负债132万亿元中国银监会网站发布数据显示，截至今年

一季度末，中国银行业金融机构总资产为

141万亿元，总负债约为132万亿元。资产

增加后管理难度及潜在风险也随之增大。

中国审计署称，中国农业银行业、建设银

行及进出口银行三家银行部分总支行违规

发放贷款总计逾255亿元。

广州镉超标大米多出自湖南广州市食品药品监督管理局公布镉超标的

大米及米制品生产厂家、品牌标识，其中

多批次来自湖南，且均产自当地有色金属

之乡。专家分析认为，这与湖南独特的地

理条件以及历史形成的工业布局密切相

关，而农业投入品滥用、外源性污染、养

殖业污染等因素也日渐显现。

发改委高官遭微博实名举报落马《财经》杂志副主编罗昌平于去年12月6

日在微博实名举报国家发改委副主任、国

家能源局局长刘铁男涉嫌学历造假、巨额

骗贷和对他人恐吓威胁等问题。今年5月的

官方消息证实，刘铁男涉嫌严重违纪正接

受组织调查。其被指利用行政审批大权，

做权钱交易，谋取私利。

许霆申请重审ATM机故障取款案2006年，许霆在广州办理1000元取款

时，因ATM机故障实际获取17.5万元人民

币，被法院一审判处无期徒刑。经媒体大

量报道后，二审改判有期徒刑5年。已获自

由的许霆日前向广东高级人民法院申诉重

审。此案争议焦点在于银行有无责任。

企业与市场

海外并购同比大幅下降清科集团旗下私募通统计，今年4月中国

并购市场共完成65起并购交易，其中披

露金额的有63起，交易总金额约为25.28

亿美元。与上月相比并购交易总金额下降

15.1%，与去年同期相比下降50.8%。同

比降幅较大的原因在于去年4月发生7起海

外并购，交易金额达31.60亿美元。

中国成全球矿业金属业最大买家安永会计师事务所发表报告称，中国已成

全球矿业和金属行业最大买家。2012年中

国矿业及金属行业企业在全球范围内实施

的并购金额合计达到217亿美元，占世界

整体21%。70%以上并购发起方都中国有

企业，表明中国国企是全球矿业及金属业

并购市场主力军。普华永道会计师事务所

公布的数据则显示，过去5年中国企业海外

并购额激增了5倍多。

37家央企去年借贷融资三万亿《投资者报》研究院数据显示，2012年度

A股上市公司累计融资金额达8.2万亿元，

其中融资总额最高的50家企业的融资金额

总计4.27万亿元。而这50家企业中，央企

达37家，占比74%；另有地方国企6家，

而真正意义上的民营上市公司只有2家。

马蔚华卸任招行行长1999年起担任招商银行行长的马蔚华于近

日提出不再担任招商银行主要领导职务，

并于此后主动放弃参加招商银行下届执行

董事会选举。离职后他将获得30万份招商

银行股票增值权。48岁的田惠宇成为新一

届招行执行董事候选人。

人民币对美元中间价屡创新高

June 201312

企业家群体幸福指数诺亚（中国）控股有限公司与《福布斯》

中文版发布全国首份针对企业家群体的幸

福指数调研白皮书。调研参照国际经验，

在国内首次将幸福这一相对主观、难以测

量的概念，细分为家庭、健康、财富等十

大指标，并量化成1-11级，使“幸福”变

得可测量和评估。选择企业家群体作为调

研对象，是因为他们相较于其他群体，承

担着更大的社会责任，对他们的讨论，更

具有风向标意义。

家化管理层与平安信托内斗上海家化集团大股东平安信托与管理层矛

盾激化，双方公开指责对方。葛文耀被罢

免集团董事长和总经理职务。上海家化集

团是中国最大的化妆品公司，在上海证交

所上市的上海家化联合股份有限公司是其

子公司，旗下拥有佰草集、美加净、六神

等本土品牌。

分析与预测

二线城市商业地产过剩危机高力国际发布《中国商业地产市场

概览》报告。度过了前几年的快速增长期

后，中国一线城市的商业地产市场已趋平

稳，但在大部分二线城市，商业地产却将

面临着供应过剩的危机。高力国际中国调

研董事谢靖宇表示，相比一线城市，大部

分的二线城市的商业地产需求有限，而近

两年来供应量的急剧增加势必将对租金走

势造成压力。

由于持续的需求及边远地区基础设施

的提升，上海和北京的次中心市场均继续

发展。在深圳和广州，新增供应则集中在

市区。鉴于预计未来供应量，这四个城市

的空置率在今年均会有所上升。今年，高

力国际预测上海和北京的租金走势平稳，

广州和深圳的租金下降。

高力国际分析了二线城市沈阳、大

连、天津、青岛、南京、苏州、杭州、成

都、重庆和佛山的情况后，对部分城市

（南京和大连）写字楼市场持审慎乐观态

度。大部分二线城市开发迅速而需求有

限，因此将面临供过于求的挑战。在九个

城市中，预计逾半城市将面临租金下降

（沈阳、天津、成都和佛山）。除已拥有

大量国际知名品牌的大连外，高力国际对

其他二线城市的零售物业市场保持非常乐

观的态度。这些城市的零售市场将继续以

百货商场形态为主，其租金水平将仍与零

售销售额挂钩。发展商对其转型做购物中

心模式的战略需三思而后行。

金价会不会“跌跌不休”高盛近日公布报告称，金价目前从

4月中旬的崩盘中有所回升。此次回升的

主要动力在强劲的零售需求，与其形成鲜

明对比的就是不断缩减的交易所上市基金

(ETF)持仓量。

展望未来，高盛预计金价将继续走

低。经济学家预期今年年末美国经济增长

将再加速。短期来看，金价可能维持震

荡，因美国活动指数放缓，但ETF持仓持

续大幅缩减。目前，黄金持仓抛售比预期

快，金价低于短期预期，ETF持仓进一步

放缓将会使金价持续走低。

而在美国上市的诺亚财富（NOAH）

发布的“黄金走势分析”专题研究报告认

为，黄金兼具金属属性与货币属性，金价

是这两个属性相互博弈的结果。从短期来

看，金价暴跌很可能是市场情绪到达临界

点的过度反应。而黄金的基本面并没有发

生根本性改变，因此市场大幅跳水并不会

持续。

该报告指出，从中期来看，持续多

年的黄金大牛市已步入尾声。尤其是当持

有黄金的机会成本可能发生转变，持有黄

金的吸引力也在不断减弱，因此金价面临

较强下行风险。但是，金价不会无限制下

跌。自2009年初，全球央行总体上是不

断增持黄金作为储备，尤其是俄罗斯、韩

国、土耳其等国增持非常明显。而各国央

行不断购买黄金作为储备的行为也将对金

价给予一定支持。而从长期来看，黄金可

能会迎来一轮新的牛市。毕竟，全球都相

继加入货币宽松的阵营，而多印的纸币很

可能在未来某一天造成全球范围内通胀，

从而使持有黄金的吸引力增加。

外资资产管理受挫大陆市场罗兰贝格合伙人兼大中华区副总裁和

香港办公室负责人雷启迪对《中经评论》

表示，大陆资产管理市场最大的问题还是

相关法律法规比较保守。大陆金融市场开

放较晚，所以很自然的，相关法律法规会

相对比较保守。随着大陆投资者和市场的

日益成熟，将会看到大陆的法律法规向港

台地区等其他市场慢慢靠拢。外资基金公

司成功之处有几点：不断推出新产品吸引

顾客，海外销售渠道较多，对海外客户的

认知比较深刻。而大陆因为相关法律法规

相对比较保守，很多新产品无法推出，销

售渠道与海外也不同。本土基金公司销售

渠道比较多，与国有银行关系良好，对本

土客户的认知也比较深。而外资机构缺少

这样的渠道，对本土客户的认知也没有本

土机构好。

雷启迪指出，目前外资资产管理机

构的对策是继续加强对大陆客户需求的研

究，特别是未来的需求趋势。大陆客户对

金融衍生品理解不够，因此要加强客户培

育。另外，在销售金融衍生品时，不能再

像过去那样，而要让客户清楚地了解到其

中的风险。

（本栏目大部分内容根据公开信息整理）

June 2013 13

MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFSInvestment slows as output falls behind estimatesChina’s fixed-asset investments slowed in April, Bloomb-

erg reported, citing China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Industrial output also fell below analyst estimates for the

first quarter of the year. Fixed-asset investment grew by

20.6% in January through April, down from 20.9% in the

first quarter. Industrial production hit 9.3%, just below the

expected 9.4%. The response from China’s new leadership

will indicate the level of its tolerance for slowing growth.

Gradually rising inflation could rule out heavy-handed

stimulus spending as a way to boost investment and pro-

duction.

EU to impose punitive solar duties on China The European Commission agreed on May 8 to a proposal

from EU Trade Chief Karel De Gucht to impose punitive

import duties on solar panels from China, Reuters reported.

The proposal, which says the duties would be levied by June

6, is the EU’s boldest response to what it sees as China’s

dumping of cheap solar products into Europe. The EU’s

investigation into dumping accusations against China’s solar

panel makers has been extensive, but Brussels is cautious of

souring a key relationship. Yi Xiaozhun, China’s ambassador

to the WTO, said the decision was a mistake, but declined to

comment on any reactionary moves from Beijing. The EU is

also scrutinizing Chinese telecoms and airlines.

Chinese exports top expectationsChina’s exports grew faster than expected in April, rising

14.7% year-on-year compared to 10% in March, Bloomberg

reported. Imports rose 16.8% year-on-year in April, com-

pared to 14.1% in March. The country swung back to a trade

surplus of US$18.2 billion, after recording a trade deficit of

US$0.88 billion in March. The figures were announced on

the heels of trade data releases in South Korea and Taiwan

that missed expectations. Louis Kuijs, chief China economist

at Royal Bank of Scotland Group, said that exports may

actually be 9 percentage points lower than reported because

of businesses overstating export figures.

Home prices continue to riseHome prices continued to rise across China’s largest cities

in April despite aggressive efforts by the government to curb

the market, The Wall Street Journal reported. Average new

home prices rose 5.34% year-on-year in April, the fastest

rise since late 2011, according to a survey of real estate firms

conducted by data firm China Real Estate Index System.

Prices rose in 76 cities and fell in 24 others. Compared to

March, prices rose 1% to US$1,638 (RMB10,098) per square

meter. “This confirms (our) view that the recent govern-

ment control measures will not prevent housing prices from

rising,” Credit Suisse analyst Jinsong Du said.

Cadmium-tainted rice found in GuangzhouHalf of the rice being sold in markets in the southern city

of Guangzhou was contaminated with the carcinogenic

metal cadmium, according to government tests, The Wall

Street Journal reported. The Guangzhou Food and Drug

Administration tested 18 samples of rice in the city, nearly

half of which contained excessive levels of cadmium. The

news was met with anger online. “First water, then the air we

breathe, and now the earth. How can people still survive?”

commented one person on Sina Weibo, a service similar to

Twitter. Several food safety scandals have rocked China this

year, including record pollution in Beijing and dead pigs in

Shanghai’s water supply.

Microsoft to hire thousands in ChinaMicrosoft’s CEO Steve Ballmer says the company plans to

hire several thousand workers in China as its market share

in smartphones and cloud computing services increases,

Bloomberg reported. Ballmer said that China is the fastest

growing market for its new smartphone operating system,

Windows Phone 8. The mobile OS has received a tepid

response from other markets around the world. The soft-

ware giant also plans to launch its Windows Azure cloud

computing system next month as a joint venture with Bei-

jing-based 21 Vianet Group, which would make it the first

company to offer cloud computing services in China.

June 201314

China tightens rules on bond marketA Chinese finance industry body issued new rules for the

bond market on May 20 to help eliminate institutions’

advantage over retail investors, The Wall Street Journal

reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Underwrit-

ers must now set rates on short- and medium-term bonds

closer to those already on the market, reducing the markup

above the issuer’s price that underwriters could previously

sell the bonds at. Bonds can also no longer be purchased

at rates that are unavailable to retail investors. The sources

said the National Association of Financial Market Institu-

tional Investors issued the rules for the booming bond mar-

ket at a closed meeting.

Party fires top economic plannerThe Chinese Communist Party fired a top official from the

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)

in mid-May for “severe disciplinary violations,” Bloomb-

erg reported. State-run Xinhua News Agency reported

that NDRC Vice Chairman Liu Tienan was terminated,

citing the Organization Department, which is charged

with appointing officials. The Ministry of Supervision

announced it was investigating Liu on Sunday. In a Decem-

ber microblog post, an editor at Caijing Magazine accused

Liu of improper business dealings. “This is a case where the

central government tries to signal its seriousness of anti-

corruption and encouragement of real-name reporting of

corruption,” said Jiangnan Zhu, an assistant professor at

the University of Hong Kong.

Baidu eyes online video serviceChinese internet search giant Baidu said it would pay US$370

million (RMB2.2 billion) to acquire streaming television

service PPStream, The Wall Street Journal reported. Baidu

said Tuesday it would integrate the PPStream’s library into its

iQiyi online-video service. Growth of mobile video services

in China has boomed in recent years, as trends show many

Chinese consume TV content on their mobile devices. In a

similar pattern to their North American counterparts, Chi-

nese internet companies have invested heavily in acquiring

original video content to boost their offerings. While this has

been an expensive play, analysts believe it will be highly prof-

itable over time due to strong demand from advertisers for

video ads that target specific demographics.

C

M

Y

CM

MY

CY

CMY

K

GDS旗舰店会刊广告设计稿5.27下午(转曲).pdf 2 2013-5-27 16:35:27

June 2013 15

重构与突破怎样才能在全球贸易规则重构时代取得成功文 | 王新奎 上海WTO事务咨询中心总裁、上海对外经贸大学教授

专栏

最近一年多来，我深

深 体 会 到 世 界 在

变。2008年金融危机刚开

始时，美国《哈佛商业评

论》有一篇文章，谈到十

大必须关注的经济趋势。

当时我看到这篇文章后，

将其中“现在作为一家企

业，发现世界不仅仅是循

环而是重构”这段话摘了

下来。

我 的 体 会 是 全 球 贸 易 规 则 在 重

构。2011年美国国会专门开了听证会，

听证中国是不是“数据贸易”的自由贸易

体。WTO审议服务贸易政策时，西方发达

国家也提出数据贸易自由化的问题。最近

有可能会就数据贸易自由化问题引发一场

贸易争端。

国际贸易都在适应云时代的变化，或

者可能更广泛，我总结为“智能制造和数

字制造相结合的新产业革命”。所有的贸

易规则和投资规则都在调整，以适应这个

需要。而这一轮的投资和贸易规则调整的

主导权仍掌握在西方发达国家手中。

云平台包括三个部分。最核心的是

上端的云计算加上大数据，下端有两个方

面，一端是物联网和无线存储，一端是移

动终端和虚拟社区，已经不是社交网络的

概念。在这样的平台上创新，每天都会有

变化。

现在很矛盾。如果开放，我们这片云

就和世界的云连在一起；如果不开放，我

们这片云就和世界的云相隔绝。facebook

在 某 种 意 义 上 可 看 成 “ 世 界 第 二 大 国

家”—拥有10亿活跃客户，而且几乎每

天都上facebook，已不仅是社交网络和信

息传输手段。先是通信进去，再是文化进

去，现在是制造业、金融、政府管理都进

去，这是完全扁平的世界。你如果不与它

联系，就与10亿人的市场隔绝；如果让它

进来，那你做好准备了没有？从现在的变

化看，如果不能在这个新平台上创新，就

会被挤压到价值链的最底端。

今非昔比我提出五个问题。第一，我们还拥有

取之不竭的廉价劳动力吗？我们还能从农

民手中无偿取得土地吗？我们还能继续享

用经济全球化的午餐吗？我们还坚信经济

增长一定会带来福利吗？我们还能像上世

纪80、90年代，特别是中国加入WTO前

后，形成继续改革的全民共识吗？

这些都已今非昔比。20多年来经济

高速增长的经营环境，在今后5或10年将

不复存在。全世界都要适应低速增长的环

境。因为新一轮技术革命，新一轮全球产

业链和价值链的调整，往往会带来财富增

长，却很少会带动就业增长。而财富增长

并不仅仅体现在GDP增长上。

机遇不再政府调控能否永远创造奇迹？很多

企业家都在等待，现在的困难是政策引起

的，希望寄托在政策能够变，好像政府调

控永远能创造奇迹。过去20年，政府调控

的收放制度是过热就收一收，冷了就放下

来，大家觉得这种状况会永远持续下去。

但是，就像一辆车，在高速行驶时发动机

很正常，油箱里都是油。司机很清楚，稍

微动一下方向盘，就会有反应。现在不同

了，汽车开始减速。因此政府惯用或擅

长的三个调控手段—货币政策、财政政

策、产业政策，有的经济学家认为，边际

效应在不断下降，负面效果越来越明显。

所以，企业家一定要行动，要将命运掌握

在自己手中。希望再有两位数的增速，人

人都能赚钱、每个行业都有投资机遇的时

代，大概不会再来了。

研究世界经济发展的历史，特别是近

代工业革命以后的历史发现，一个国家和

民族能够抓住机遇实现20至30年的高速增

长，已经非常不容易了。中华民族已经非

常幸运了，绝大多数国家和民族没有抓住

机遇。只有少数几个国家抓住了这样的机

遇。中国已经把握了30年的机遇，还希望

有30年的机遇，这不太符合常态。

掌握命运今时不同往日。过去往往是政府在引

导企业走这条路、走那条路。现在，突围

之路在企业家脚下，企业家在探讨应该怎

么做。

过去我在教本科学生微观经济学时，

一开始就给学生灌输这一概念：企业短期

要解决怎么生产的问题，这对于企业家来

说不是问题，命运掌握在市场手中。无非

是利润多一点少一点，市场好了就多一

点，市场坏了就少赚一点。长期来看，微

观经济学的主题是生产什么的问题，这是

全球贸易规则正在重构

June 201316

王新奎

企业的存亡问题。而怎么生产，政府管得

再好也没有用。区分企业家和管理者的标

准是什么？就是决定怎么生产还是生产什

么。如果一个人既是企业家又是管理者，

就要区分不同时期思考的重点是生产什么

还是怎么生产。企业家要将命运掌握在自

己手中。在全球贸易规则重构的时代，不

管服务业还是制造业，企业都面临着生产

什么的问题。

巨大挑战在这样的形势下，企业家是否思考过

以下三个问题？

第一个问题，增长环境今非昔比，你

的企业有没有可能，如何突破增长瓶颈？

如果没有可能，不如趁早关门，不要死

撑。如果有可能，如何突破？每个企业家

都应该思考。我最近调研了几家企业，原

来都做服装，现在都在转型升级，都是在

三五年前就开始讨论了，很多都应用到了

新技术。

第二个问题，在经济全球化发展出现

新趋势时，你的企业在全球产业链和价值

链中如何定位？金融危机以来的5年中，

我一直在从事这方面的工作，最深的体会

是全球产业链和价值链正在发生革命性变

化，这一点必须要有充分认识。现在西方

经济体、发达经济体的政府极其困难，但

是全球性跨国公司极其活跃，调整极快，

并不像有些人所想的那样。他们的问题是

企业不肯借钱给政府，政府才会困难。

《第三次工业革命》提出的（互联网

技术和可再生能源的结合）是否构成革命

性变化还有待观察，但是这种现象我亲眼

目睹在发生。最近一个时期，跨国公司的

共享中心、供应链管理中心、总部研发中

心大规模向上海进军，不是过去所想像的

贸易和投资结构的情况，而是近岸转移，

就是把生产、研发、物流管理、供应链管

理全部放到离产品市场最近的地方。某种

产品在美国销得很好，就把这些环节全部

放到美国；某种产品在中国销得好，这些

环节基本上就放到上海。这种现象非常明

显，不需要招商。近岸转移的趋势肯定已

经出现。如果企业不能在全球产业链和价

值链中重新定位，而是放在很小的市场范

围内，或者思路仅仅局限于你赢我输、你

胜我败、我活你死，是没有任何意义的。

当今世界就是共存共容，关键是怎样在重

建的产业链和价值链中定位。

第三个问题，在即将到来的商业模

式创新大潮面前，是否还有可能进入企业

家状态？彼得·德鲁克讲创新，指的就是

企业家状态。他认为企业家是一种状态而

不是一种职业。一个人一生中能够处于企

业家状态的实际时间是很短的。很多企业

家在创业时处于企业家状态，经过多年努

力，企业规模做大后，其实最多是管理者

而不是企业家，因为不符合德鲁克对于创

新的定义。

当前，商业模式的创新眼花缭乱，云

计算提供了以人为核心的巨大平台。在这

个平台上，人人可以创新，大学生也可以

创新。而企业家必须面对的巨大挑战是能

否再度进入企业家状态。

如何成功怎样才能成功？很多年前，我看过

《个人在历史上的尊容》这本书，记得其

中一句话，“成功就是当机会来临的时

候，你已经具备了必要条件”。我们从小

受的教育是“有志者事竟成”，从鼓励人

的角度看是对的，但不是真理。

想要成功单靠知识还不够，还要有机

会。没有机会，可能努力一辈子都一事无

成。但是，机会来临时，谁能抓住机会？

一定是具备必要条件的人。现在，我们企

业正面临着这样一种环境，大家都感到机

会在不断逼近，都在研究苹果公司是怎么

成功的。通用汽车公司20多万雇员，市值

360亿美元；而苹果公司只有3万多员工，

市值是通用汽车的几十倍。机会是怎样向

它逼近的？

第二个问题是当机会逼近时，是否已

具备了必要条件？这是企业家需要解决的

问题，在看准机会的同时已具备了必要条

件，而必要条件确实是靠自己的努力创造

出来的—从来就没有神仙皇帝也没有救

世主。

（根据作者在2012中国管理·全球论坛上

的演讲整理）

全球贸易规则正在重构

June 2013 17

Chinese directors can play to audiences growing weary of Hollywood blockbustersBy Ying Zhu, professor and departmental chair of media culture at City University of New York, College of Staten Island

Domestic drama

To its dismay,

Hollywood has

b e e n p u t o n

notice that its high-tech

blockbusters are not far-

ing well in China so far

this year. The box office

sales for such movies are

particularly lackluster

compared to the spectac-

ular success that US studios garnered

last year, with films such as “Mission:

Impossible – Ghost Protocol” lead-

ing the Chinese box office and seeing

major ticket sales from China.

Meanwhile, to the delight of the

Chinese studios, sales for Chinese-

language films have risen sharply this

year. Speculation abounds as to wheth-

er the honeymoon between Hollywood

and its Chinese audiences is coming to

an end or just to a temporary halt.

To be fair, Chinese policies that are

protective of domestic pictures might

have played a role in Hollywood’s less-

than-par box-office performance. A

government circular issued late last

year offers a financial incentive, in the

form of rebates on screening fees, to

Chinese theater chains that receive at

least 50% of their annual box-office

revenue from Chinese films. Theater

owners therefore have a strong incen-

tive to keep a lid on box-office receipts

from imported films.

Judging by the chatter on the Chi-

nese internet, mainland audiences

legitimately appear to have discovered

anew the likability of domestic pic-

tures, at least during the first quarter of

2013, and they are willing to give these

pictures a try. Feng Xiaogang, by far

the most successful Chinese director of

popular domestic films, predicts that

the Chinese audience may yet prove to

be the savior of Chinese directors.

On-and-off Hollywood affairThe reversal of fortune between US

and Chinese studio films is not with-

out precedent. To combat declining

cinema attendance, regulators reintro-

duced Hollywood to China in 1995

with an annual quota of 10 big pic-

tures. This instantly restored Chinese

audiences’ movie-going habits and led

audiences to discover the country’s

own big-budget and high-tech enter-

tainment pictures, what the Chinese

called “domestic big-pictures.”

The domestic big pics all became

blockbusters in 1995 and total box-

office returns were 15% higher than

in 1994.

China used Hollywood’s high-cost

production values as the benchmark

for predicting quality and perform-

ance. Domestic big pics imitated their

foreign rivals, and the amount invest-

ed in several of these domestic films

set records for the time. Among big

spending productions, historic epics

dominated other genres.

Fast forward to 2013, Chinese cin-

ema’s current favor owes much to the

strong performance of films that don’t

qualify as big pics. Rather, a number

of modestly budgeted small pics with

local flavor have genuinely connected

with the Chinese audiences.

Popular domestic films such as

“Lost in Thailand” and “Finding Mr.

Right” succeeded by spotlighting con-

temporary Chinese life, something that

is often missing in the explosion-filled

Hollywood action genre and the over-

bearing historical sweep of Chinese

epics. As the director of “Lost in Thai-

land” puts it, “There is hunger from

the audience for movies that talk about

the real-life situation in China.”

There are some lessons to be drawn

from the last resurgence of Chinese

film in the mid-1990s, as that rebound

of Chinese cinema did not last. The

popularity of Hollywood entertain-

ment films led to a slew of crude imita-

tions saturated with gratuitous sex and

violence. The proliferation of cheap

knockoffs did not sit well with either

the censor or the audience. Revenue

from domestic pictures soon fell, along

with the number of domestic films

produced. Chinese cinema entered a

downturn in 1996.

The blockbuster success of “Lost in

Thailand” has spurred a wave of copy-

cats. The oversaturation of quick, if

not cheap knockoffs might again prove

fatal if Chinese studios are not careful.

Growing up with the audienceThere is a noticeable fatigue among

Chinese moviegoers who I have spoken

COLUMN

June 201318

Ying Zhu

to regarding the formulaic Hollywood flicks.

Once the novelty wears off, the attraction of sequels

becomes less appealing, particularly when the ubiquity of

Hollywood makes it less exotic, or desirable.

What we are witnessing is the maturation of a genera-

tion of Chinese cinephiles coming of age in the company of

(pirated) Hollywood films. They have outgrown their ado-

lescent infatuation with action films and now yearn for

more sophisticated films. It does not mean that they will

not time and again return to their childhood comfort zone.

It does mean that they are venturing out to explore films of

diverse style and scale.

Hollywood has yet to catch up with the evolving appetite

of Chinese audiences. The US film industry produces more

than the big-budget and high-tech action adventures. It also

produces quality films that elicit real emotions and provoke

real thinking, but they are not considered viable exports.

As the cliché has it, the dimwitted global audiences are

not capable of fathoming spoken words and savoring subtle

verbal cues. Hollywood has confined its China pictures to

action-adventure, much as China’s US pictures have man-

aged to relegate themselves to the martial-arts ghetto.

This hesitancy may be to the benefit of domestic direc-

tors. Cinematic poaching at the global scale is no longer

a one-way street. Hollywood has succeeded in repackag-

ing Asian cinema with “The Departed,” Martin Scorsese’s

remake of Hong Kong’s “Infernal Affairs,” winning an

Academy award. Meanwhile, a new generation of Chinese

directors is learning to adapt Hollywood’s small picture

style of solid story and human characters. “Lost in Thai-

land,” for example, is heavily influenced by “Midnight

Run,” the genre twisting 1980s comedy-thriller.

As the whisper in the classic “Field of Dreams” has it,

“If you build it, they will come.” The domestic film market

has been built; now Chinese directors have only to conquer

it anew – this time with contemporary culture instead of

flashy special effects.

Zhu is a leading scholar on Chinese cinema and media

studies, she is the author or editor of eight books, most

recently of “Two Billion Eyes: The Story of China Central

Television.” She is currently working on a project con-

cerning Sino-Hollywood courtship.

C

M

Y

CM

MY

CY

CMY

K

GDS旗舰店会刊广告设计稿5.27下午(转曲).pdf 1 2013-5-27 16:35:26

June 2013 19

毫无疑问，新时代的

到来必然会影响人

们的生活方式和生产方式。

云时代必然会对像银行这样

的服务业产生影响，在某种

意义上会决定其生存和发

展。我们对这个问题的认识

和理解不敢怠慢。大数据和

云时代是相联系的，我们把

《大数据》作者涂子沛从美

国请来，介绍大数据给我们带来什么？特

别是给商业银行带来了什么？

我对云计算的理解就是IT资源拥有权

和使用权的分离。云计算平台可以给产业

聚合和协同带来巨大能量。云计算时代的

制造资源在地理上是分散的，但是一旦有

需求通过云计算平台就可以快速聚合。资

源主体间的协调性在云计算时代非常高。

进入云时代，每家企业都可能成为

冠军。几年前，弗里德曼《世界是平的》

说互联网时代已经“推平”了世界。而云

计算把世界变小了，让每家企业都拥有了

无数接口。这些接口在云端开放，无限拓

展，可以帮助企业汇聚所有的需求，从定

单信息到原材料的供给，再到物流平台

和终端消费，都能够找到相匹配的资源

支持。

云时代的企业竞争力不再体现在劳

动生产力上，而是知识生产力或信息竞争

力。很多国家都在积极部署云计算、大数

据的应对措施。美国应该是先行者，预计

到2020年，美国云计算占IT业总产值将达

到30%-50%。云计算也是中国的重大机

遇。中国有几个条件，互联网用户全球最

多，拥有全球最多的PC和智能手机用户，

还有世界上最多的中小企业。这些中小企

业一旦对云计算产生迫切需求，中国经济

就会真正实现向高端的转型。

互联网金融挑战随着云时代或大数据时代的到来，商

业银行将面临怎样的危机？

银行具有IT属性，因为银行的两大

功能信用中介和支付平台，都要靠IT来支

撑。我经常说，信息技术对银行而言，就

是水和空气的关系。

银行伴随着IT信息技术的进步而发

展。电视剧《乔家大院》时代的票号，靠

马车传递票据，速度非常慢。有了电话电

报后大大前进了。过去，银行把客户资金

从这个城市划到那个城市，中间要经历很

长时间。进入互联网时代，这个问题就迎

韧而解了。

IT改变了人们的生活，也改变了人们

的需求，包括对金融的需求。假如没有互

联网的发达，没有人会对银行提出“零时

差”的要求，也不会有人提出个性化量体

裁衣的需求。有了互联网，对于服务的需

求越来越高涨。银行解决需求也要靠互联

网，IT推动了金融服务业的发展。

有几件事感到压力很大。传统银行

的结算支付业务是给社会结算搭建平台。

过去是银行一统天下，所有商品交换都是

银行结算。但从上世纪80年代起，IT企业

就开始觊觎这一业务，因为既然是借助IT

进行的，那就可以自己做。最早是比尔·

盖茨，他在80年代设计了一个软件，可以

不通过银行直接替客户结算。美国的银行

家到处奔走，试图说服政府。美国政府给

银行留了一条路，要有分工，大家都要有

饭吃。但是这事没有完。后来包括日本索

尼、中国电信运营商都在琢磨。最大的变

化就是第三方支付的出现，不得不承认这

是社会进步的结果。很多小额支付必须尽

快完成，银行满足不了。第三方支付得以

迅速壮大，每年的递增达百分之百，现在

很快就到4万亿。这就是资本的技术性“脱

媒”。

还有一件事，虽然还没有到来，但感

觉到很有威胁。就是以脸谱（facebook）

为代表的社交网络，拥有大量的客户、资

金供给者和需求者。有史以来有两种融资

模式，间接融资模式和直接融资模式，后

者就是股票交易所和债券市场。有了以脸

谱为代表的社交网络后，可能会出现第三

专栏

生存还是毁灭商业银行如何因应云时代的挑战文 | 马蔚华 招商银行前行长

《大数据》作者涂子沛

June 201320

马蔚华

种形式，就是互联网融资，这会对银行的

生存和发展带来挑战。

互联网融资不仅对银行构成挑战，

对股票交易所也有挑战。有人建议，不用

到交易所上市，在社交网络上就可以“上

市”。脸谱8亿多客户里有很多会买它的股

票，这叫“重筹融资”，实际上在现实中

已经发生了。通过互联网可以筹措资金，

银行毫无疑问着面临生死存亡的挑战，但

挑战往往也会带来机会。

大数据营销机遇比尔·盖茨当年曾说过：“你们这些

传统银行，如果不改变，就是21世纪将要

灭绝的恐龙。”这句话很刺激我，当时我

刚到招商银行，该行还很小。但我在看到

挑战的同时也看到了机遇。互联网是上个

世纪末的新事物，不管大银行、小银行、

新银行在互联网上都是平等的，都在同一

条起跑线上。只要把握好，不仅可以缩短

差距，还可以超越对手。

今天我们面对的云计算也一样，也是

新的。成败取决于你对新事物的认知和行

动。当年，我们就借助互联网技术，大胆

提出零售银行的概念。零售要设网点，我

们当年才100多个网点，还没有客户。有

人觉得是异想天开，而使异想天开变成现

实的就是互联网。如一卡通，通过互联网

技术把存折变成多种功能的银行卡，现在

已经有6000万-7000万用户。假如每个用

户有1万多元存款，就是7000亿-8000亿

元，这就奠定了零售的基础。我们在中国

第一个推出互联网银行。现在的网上替代

率近90%，而零售网点还不到1000个，这

对大银行而言微不足道，但我们渠道的销

售能力几乎和大银行一样。我们连续多次

获得国内外权威机构授予的“中国最佳商

业银行”称号。

互联网在带来挑战的同时也带来了

机遇。云计算和大数据同样会带来很多机

遇。比如，云时代的银行可以迅速了解客

户需求。大数据时代的信息是公开透明

的，完全可以通过数据分析，了解不同客

户的不同需求，从而实现精准营销，大大

减少成本。还可以根据需求的变化规律，

研究下一个产品的供给。

此外，还可以提升管理。这些年我们

就是在信息技术不断变化的时代，持续提

升企业管理的水准。云计算和大数据给企

业管理带来的冲击非常大。虽然中国银行

业在全球金融危机中没有受到什么损失，

但是老实说，我们的管理水平比西方有很

大差距。金融危机受的损失少，不是管理

能力强，也不是对风险防范的水平高，而

是没有到海里游泳，也就不可能被淹没。

中国银行业的国际化程度还很低。当务之

急是提升管理，而云计算和大数据带来了

契机。

比如，银行网点的选择和建立，过去

很多就是“拍脑袋”，“这个地方不错，

挺热闹”。缺少精准的分析判断，结果很

多网点建起来以后没有达到预期的效果。

我们请的《大数据》作者住在匹斯

堡。他把匹斯堡的社区地图不断点击，点

击到每个街道，这个街道周围的居民分

布、层次就一目了然，然后根据这种精准

设计的判断开设网点。这就是管理的提

升。

对于资本的运用也如此。现在资本很

紧张，如何节约资本要靠判断，对各个条

线的产品分配、产品需求，对于未来产品

的分析，都可以通过云计算，让资本更科

学地进行分配。还可以精准地进行资源整

合和流程改造。

《大数据》这本书给我最深刻印象的

一句话是“除了上帝，任何人都必须用数

据说话”。云计算在给银行带来挑战的同

时，也一定会带来光明的前途和巨大的发

展机遇。

（根据作者在2012中国管理·全球论坛上

的演讲整理）

对大数据进行精确地分析判断

June 2013 21

COLUMN

Rural credit is still beholden to politicians despite reforms of the last decade.By Lynette Ong, associate professor of political science at University of Toronto

Bad Seeds

Credit has been

the subject of

m u c h s c r u -

tiny in China. While

m a j o r g o v e r n m e n t -

owned banks steal the

most headlines, it’s also

important to understand

how credit operates at

the lowest grassroots lev-

els. Unsurprisingly, that system has

risks and inefficiencies of its own.

Rural credit cooperatives (RCCs)

are China’s main official banking insti-

tutions servicing borrowers outside of

cities. The lack of alternative savings

institutions and investment channels

has made RCCs very popular savings

options in rural China, where the other

option is often keeping household sav-

ings under the mattress. The banks

are then officially charged with lend-

ing those funds to support agricultural

development among farm households.

Despite this official mandate, most

of these funds did not find their way

into enterprising farmers’ pockets.

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s,

about half of all RCC loans went to

township and village enterprises

(TVEs), which are small or medium-

sized enterprises located in and man-

aged by townships and villages.

This bias toward government enter-

prises did not yield positive returns for

the cooperatives either. At the end of

the 1990s, the official nonperforming

loan rate for such cooperatives was

estimated to be 50% of total loans. My

own estimate suggests the rate of bad

loans to TVEs was as high as 80%.

Fiscal flawsIn developing countries, it is not

uncommon for rural banking insti-

tutions to direct a disproportionate

amount of their loans to large rather

than small borrowers. But there are

unique political and economic reasons

for this phenomenon in China.

Although they are officially banking

institutions, RCCs have been forced to

walk a line between China’s fiscal and

banking systems, which serve inher-

ently different economic and social

objectives. The fiscal system plays a

redistributive role: It collects taxes

from the “haves” and redistributes the

revenue in the form of social services

to the “have-nots,” at least in theory.

The banking system has an interme-

diary purpose: Banking institutions

pool capital from savers and allocate

it to borrowers, with the price of loans

reflecting the borrower's risk profile.

The intermediary role of banking

institutions improves the efficiency

of capital allocations by channeling

funds from areas with excess sav-

ings to areas with a greater need for

loans. Alternatively, the use of savings

to serve a fiscal role can bring with it

huge inefficiencies in capital alloca-

tions. Moreover, when this capital is

allocated it is often subject to political

considerations rather than hard-nosed

economic assessments. In other words,

these loans often end up in the hands

of politically well-connected borrowers

who have little incentive to repay.

Local interference in credit alloca-

tions is an unintended consequence of

the demands of Chinese political insti-

tutions. The behavior of those in local

government is largely motivated by the

Communist Party evaluation system

and by the fiscal system. Cadre evalua-

tion, the basis of officials' promotions,

emphasizes local economic growth and

improvement of fiscal revenue to the

exclusion of everything else.

Local governments in China are

additionally responsible for financ-

ing 70% of government expendi-

tures, significantly more than in most

countries. These include the bulk of

government social services. But local

governments face a systemic imbal-

ance between those expenditures and

the means they are given to generate

revenues. To meet the central govern-

ment’s demands, local officials siphon

resources from formal credit institu-

tions to finance local industrial devel-

opment to raise revenue.

Like all local bureaucratic agencies

in China, the cooperatives are sub-

ject to a dual accountability system in

which one part is political. Under the

system, managers in township coop-

eratives report to county cooperative

unions, but they were also accountable

to township party secretaries. Coun-

ty cooperative unions were also

June 201322

Lynette Ong

黄金区域低风险、高回报的投资机遇，坐享加拿大西部经济繁荣的优势及其堪比任何发达国家的商业地产连锁效应

当今动荡的全球经济使众多投资者

感到迷茫。中国住宅房地产市场

一蹶不振，人民币汇率也经历了表现最差

的一年。然而，在世界的某些区域，经济

却持续繁荣。如加拿大西部富产石油的省

份亚伯达及其邻省萨斯喀彻温，而加拿大

元则是投资者安全的避险天堂。

全球经济衰退对加拿大西部影响甚

微，该地区因丰富的石油、天然气、农

田、钾肥、钻石和铀储藏，正处于资源

推动的经济繁荣期。传统的石油和天然气

储藏覆盖亚伯达的半数地区，而过去10

年的技术革新正在打开该地区丰富的含油

沙储藏。包括道达尔(Total SA)和中石化

(Sinopec)在内的世界最大的能源公司，

在该地区大举投资，其目的是帮助亚伯达

在2018年之前将石油产量翻番。

中国的投资者或许会疑惑于如何才能

在这强劲增长的盛宴中分一杯羹，请访问

REDEV Properties(www.redevproper-

ties.com)房地产公司，为您呈现低风险、

高回报的投资机会。

成立于1981年的REDEV Proper-

ties公司向投资者提供在经济不断增长的

加拿大城市成为现存主要商业地产合伙所

有人的机会。REDEV公司帮助提升购物

广场的盈利潜能，在这一过程中使投资者

收益最大化。在4到7年后，公司出售这些

购物广场或进行再融资，为投资者提供丰

厚的利润。

在30年的经营历史中，自2001年

迄今，REDEV的创始人已经开发了逾

11,000单元的住宅地产，并帮助逾5,000

投资者成为加拿大29座商场的合伙所有

人。

在投资者中，三分之二是加拿大居

民，很多人就住在商场附近，这充分说明

了其地理位置的优越和地产的价值。这一

模式为投资者提供直接和持续的现金流和

可观的资本收益。当地产出售时，投资者

支付相对低廉的税收，同时从加拿大严格

的商业法中受益，也无需承担政府限价政

策的风险。

REDEV公司不是投机性公司。公司

从经济迅速增长地区现有的、区位优越的

主要商业地产中获得稳定收益。该模式紧

扣加拿大经济和商业地产稳定性的两大积

极趋势，特别提供5年期固定利率抵押贷

款，并以REDEV Properties名义提供

5-10年的租金逐年递增形出租。

加拿大的资源繁荣刺激了经济其它部

门的增长。零售业空间供应短缺。加拿大

人均零售面积仅为美国的一半，零售需求

持续飙升。而亚伯达和萨斯喀彻温省尤其

如此，这里的居民拥有加拿大最高的可支

配收入和最低的失业率。加拿大对零售业

空间不断上升的需求使进驻率高企（据国

际研究咨询公司高力公司(Colliers)的数

据，埃德蒙顿的进驻率自2003年起长期维

持在95%以上）成为租金上升的推动力。

在亚伯达，租金仍保持低位，为未来的租

金和资本价值上升提供了空间。

加拿大西部的人口统计数据令全世界

艳羡。该地区房产价格可承受，人口不断

增多，失业率下降。零售额增长快于地区

人口增长，通胀较低，经济学家预测，这

个拥有4百万人口的地区，在未来10年将

新增60万个就业机会。

加拿大商业地产为亚洲投资者在当今

动荡的全球经济中提供安全的避险天堂。

商业地产为通胀提供风险对冲，比住宅地

产更稳健，比股票的波动更少。然而，对

于投资者而言，很难或几乎不可能靠自己

的力量进入商业地产。REDEV公司给投

资者提供可承受的市场进入水准，使投资

者轻易获得低风险，高回报的投资机遇。

当今全球经济充满不确定性，还有什么时

候比现在转向安全投资、乐观银行账户余

额渐增更加理想呢？

更多信息，请致电本公司上海办事处 +86

21 6103 7119

访问www.redevproperties.com或

发送电邮至

infocanada@redevproperties.com

COLUMN

answerable to county party bosses.

Until the late 1990s, local party sec-

retaries had veto power over use of

personnel and financial resources held

by the cooperatives. RCC managers

formerly were appointed, evaluated

and promoted by local party secre-

taries. This system explains the bias

in lending toward local government-

related firms and projects in all locales.

Rural credit reformSince 2007, the central government

has encouraged the establishment of a

host of grassroots and informal coop-

erative financial organizations as part

of efforts to inject competition into a

sector hitherto monopolized by RCCs.

The range of new rural credit insti-

tutions includes township and village

banks (TVB), microcredit companies

and various rural mutual aid funds.

Contrary to its name, TVBs are typ-

ically established in county-level cities

that have a vibrant industrial sector.

They function like full-fledged banks,

offering saving deposits and loans but

are only licensed to operate locally.

Microcredit companies typi-

cally issue loans up to RMB10,000 or

RMB50,000 yuan but are not allowed

to accept deposits. Rural mutual aid

funds range from formal institu-

tions registered with the department

for industry and commerce that are

allowed to absorb savings as well as

issue loans, to those endorsed by the

central government for poverty alle-

viation purpose and those endorsed by

local governments that can only absorb

savings indirectly as membership fees.

The government has also restruc-

tured RCCs to some extent. In the late

1990s, cooperative management rights

were transferred from the country’s

central bank to the provincial gov-

ernments, with the intention of mak-

ing regional governments financially

responsible for the credit cooperatives

in their jurisdictions. The provincial

RCC unions are administrative organi-

zations that do not take deposits or

give loans. They represent the respec-

tive provincial governments in manag-

ing their credit cooperatives.

In addition, subject to certain con-

ditions, RCCs can choose to adopt one

of two new institutional models or can

maintain their present form.

First, rural commercial banks con-

duct business like any urban commer-

cial bank and are similarly bound by

few policy requirements. Second, rural

cooperative banks are a hybrid of rural

commercial banks and credit coop-

eratives. While they can raise equity by

bringing in investors, they are required

to allocate a certain proportion of their

loan portfolios to agricultural projects.

A majority of RCCs nationwide,

particularly those in the central and

western regions, have opted to become

rural cooperative banks.

As of now, the institutional reforms

are still ongoing. As the conversion

requires improvement in financial

performance, the goal is to ultimately

reform underperforming RCCs.

Despite institutional changes, and

the accompanying growth in assets,

liabilities and shareholders’ equities,

their long-term sustainability is not

necessarily better after restructuring.

Though formal ties between local

governments and RCCs have been sev-

ered, the former is still able to exert a

certain degree of control over resource

allocations. This is not only attribut-

able to long-standing political culture

in China, but cadre evaluation and fis-

cal decentralization still put substan-

tial pressure on local governments to

prioritize local economic development

to the exclusion of social development.

Bailouts in the name of reform

could actually worsen perceptions of

accountability at RCCs. As part of the

2003-2005 reform package, the cen-

tral bank provided RMB165.6 billion

conditional debt-for-bills swaps and

RMB830 million earmarked central

bank loans to help RCCs clean up their

debt burdens and toxic loans. The cen-

tral bank’s subsidies have encouraged

credit officers to make unjustifiably

risky decisions and to take financially

irresponsible actions.

The initial bailout raises the “moral

hazard” that RCCs will expect to be

bailed out again since they have gotten

away with bad financial decisions in

the past. The expectation of rescue

thus discourages RCCs from adopting

meaningful institutional changes.

As local-government debt mounts,

the actions of RCCs and other rural

financial institutions are a key part of

this growing risk. If reforms are not

enacted to promote lending for purely

economic grounds, the inefficiency of

lending for political reasons will even-

tually become unsustainable.

Lynette Ong is an associate professor

of political science at University of

Toronto, where she is also a faculty

member of the Asian Institute at the

Munk School of Global Affairs. This

is an excerpt from her most recent

book, “Prosper or Perish: Credit and

Fiscal Systems in Rural China,”

examining the nexus of China’s

rural credit and fiscal systems.

June 201324

INTERVIEW • REGAN RICHARDSON

All eyes on CanadaCommercial real estate in the Canadian province of Alberta is a safe, hasstle-free investment for investors worldwide, says Regan Richardson of REDEV Properties

Regan Richardson

What are the advantages for investors in looking at the shop-ping mall and commercial real estate segment of the market in Canada?We find it interesting that many in-vestors seem to think that buying residential property is the best in-vestment in real estate. The truth of the matter is that if they do not plan to live in the property, it is really not worthwhile compared to the ease of owning and managing a retail com-mercial asset. Residential property has the tremendous burden on the land-lord or resident to pay all the costs of taxes, maintenance, fees, compared to retail commercial where the ten-ant pays all these expenses. This is commonly called triple net leasing. In retail commercial real estate, the tenant pays all the costs and the land-lord nets substantially more than resi-dential property with almost no hassle. As Warren Buffet says, “any investor should only own two residential proper-ties: one to live in and one for vacation.” REDEV makes it easy for overseas investors to invest in shopping malls through direct equity shares starting at CAD $50,000 to the millions of dol-lars.

What economic factors make many people view Canada as a “Safe Haven” for investment in these volatile times?The Canadian banking sector is rat-

ed to be the best in the world. The country’s high standard of living and abundant resources make Canada one of the most desirable places to live in the world.

The province of Alberta is often spoken of as a high-potential investment region these days. What the main advantages you see for investors in looking at Alberta?Alberta is benefitting from a strong economy that has been the corner-stone for Canada’s economic security. The abundance of natural resources has drawn Canadians from every province in search of jobs and a bet-ter life. This means Alberta’s provincial economy will continue to experience growth for decades due to the high global demand for oil, gas, uranium, and potash.

What are the key factors inves-tors should consider when mak-ing a choice between different

shopping mall investment oppor-tunities?The answer is simple, “location, loca-tion, location” and a strong and com-plimentary tenant mix. REDEV has a proven formula of 100% success. Be-cause we purchase existing shopping malls, we are able to review the history and look at “true data” before we ac-quire a retail property.

What factors would make now a good time for investors to look at this kind of opportunity?Our shopping malls benefit from Al-berta’s low unemployment, extremely low vacancy rates, and robust job growth over the next decade, if not decades. Investors looking for low risk investments with high yield returns re-invest over and over again with us be-cause we have 100% record of success.

This investment is perfect as a me-dium hold investment that can pro-duce returns in 4-7 years of 15%-20% P.A. on average.

How does Canada stack up against other countries as a place for foreign investment? Why?Canada stacks up quite impressively against other countries in the for-eign investment category. It has the most stable banking system in the world and a strong currency that puts it at the top for foreign investment. This is why REDEV’s motto is “sim-ple, stable, secure.”

CO

-PU

BLISH

ED AR

TICLE

访谈

代表成都 对话世界专访成都百扬实业有限公司总经理官维文 | 海风

为迎接“2013成都《财富》全球论

坛”的召开，论坛主会场所在地

的成都锦江区于4月中旬在上海隆重举行

了“2013年成都市锦江区现代服务业投资

说明会”。

说明会吸引了来自海内外的100余

家企业近200多名嘉宾参会。现场气氛热

烈，反响强烈。利用会议休息时间，《中

经评论》慕名采访了成都百扬实业有限公

司总经理官维先生。

他是一位沉稳、慎思、儒雅的企业管

理者，言谈之间不失热情和坦诚。采访话

题围绕着百扬大厦—这一由成都百扬实

业有限公司在蓉城CBD核心区天府广场

精心打造的高端商业综合体和城市地标展

开。

问：如何看待上海市场对于百扬大厦

的重要性？

答：上海是面向世界的国际化大都

市，也是国际品牌和国内外大企业云集之

地。百扬大厦是成都全新的城市综合体，

其业态涵盖国际甲级写字楼、高档百货卖

场、云顶观景会所及高档餐厅，

整体定位是高端、精品、国

际化，着力于吸引国际品牌

和国内外大企业入住。从这

个角度看，上海市场可谓“

商家必争之地”。因此，我

们希望加大上海地区

的 宣 传 推 广 力

度，进一步扩大百扬大厦的知名度和影响

力。我们不放弃哪怕一次这样的机会，这

也是我们高度重视并积极参与这次投资说

明会的原因之一。

问：此次来上海有哪些收获？准备规

划哪些新项目？

答：我经常来上海，每次来都会抽

时间进行商务考察。这次来上海，对包括

外滩一些著名音乐酒吧在内的高端餐饮场

所进行了重点考察。希望对正在筹划中的

百扬大厦云顶商务酒吧起到一定的借鉴作

用。

我们曾经考虑过引进纯主题会所，

但经过可行性分析后，发现成功的几率不

高。考虑到百扬大厦整体定位和入驻客户

的品质，现在规划引进一家与大厦气质相

符的商务酒吧，为中外商务人士提供一个

休憩放松和业务洽谈的舒适平台。成都有

相当发达的餐饮文化和浓厚的休闲氛围，

这与地域文化和人们的生活习惯有关。但

这些场所普遍比较大众化，还稀缺高端精

品酒吧。而百扬大厦坐落于成都的城市心

脏之地，是成都崭新的商务地标楼

宇，非常有利于打造一个更具

国际特色的精品休闲场所。我

们希望从酒吧的定位、风格、

装潢和服务等各个方面，充分

展现时尚精致、舒适私密的特

色。我们希望酒吧的落成能给大

厦的尊贵客户提供更好的服务，

同时也给成都增添一道靓丽的休闲风景。

问：百扬大厦有哪些独特的地理优

势？

答：成都是西部最大的中心城市，也

是极具包容性的城市。市场覆盖四川省并

辐射西部地区8个省市区3亿人口。现代服

务业发展迅速，消费旺盛，城市的对外吸

引力、辐射力和城市综合服务功能日益增

强。成都也是中国私家车消费意识最超前

的城市，私人轿车拥有量全国排名第三。

双流国际机场已成为中国大陆第四大航空

城。这座城市每年吸引着数以万计的全球

游客慕名而来。

在成都的商业版图中，天府广场商

圈东接盐市口商圈，向西与城西经济圈相

呼应，向北与天府广场为邻，向南则是城

市发展的黄金轴线人民南路的起点。同时

也是城市金融机构、高端百货、品牌旗

舰店、休闲娱乐中心最集中的区域。百

扬大厦独特的地理优势，便是紧邻天府

广场—这里不仅是成都和四川的文化中

心，也是大西南地区的文化商业中心，文

化的聚集效应大大地提升了该地段的人

气。

百扬大厦坐落于城市中心的黄金区

位，享有四通八达的交通网络，这些都吸

引着国内外著名企业争相进驻。大厦周边

配套设施齐全，星罗棋布着众多的银行、

中高档酒店和名牌餐饮；这里交通便捷，

地铁一号线与地铁二号线交汇的天府广场

站有两层专属通道直达大厦。入住百扬

大厦，既能享受交通便利和齐全配

套，更能彰显企业的品牌和实力！

问：百扬大厦在软硬件上有

哪些创新和特色？

答：一流的硬件和服务为百扬

大厦的高品质提供了保障。大厦拥有

官维先生

13部进口KONE高速电梯、700平米写字

楼独立大堂，净层高达3米的办公空间以及

架高网络地板等，都使大厦的硬件指标完

全符合国际甲级标准。

硬件能吸引客户，软件才是留住客

户的重要因素。在保证一流硬件配套的同

时，百扬大厦更强化“软件”的重要性，

为此重金打造了自己的专业物业服务公

司。成都百扬嘉欣物业服务团队秉承“用

心服务于心”的公司理念，开创了成都唯

一的访客净化终端、客服专递枢纽等特色

服务。为提升全体工作人员的亲和力，

大楼保安不着传统保安制服，而是身着

西装。我们对每位工作人员进行全方位

培训，细致到每一个笑容，通过认真落实

“用心”的服务理念，赢得了大厦客户的

一致好评。

问：百扬大厦甲级写字楼目前客户入

住情况怎样？

答：大厦于去年5月全面亮相。目前

入住率已达40%，其中包括惠普、美国礼

来、中粮、固特异、中化集团旗下中国对

外经济贸易信托有限公司等世界五百强客

户，以及10余家各行业龙头企业，涵盖金

融、科技、医疗等多个领域。特别还赢得

了发达国家的领事馆和跨国银行的青睐。

我们希望通过持续不断地努力，能够更上

一层楼，吸引更多看好西部地区发展、看

好成都未来影响力的优秀企业和机构。

问：在成都的国际化进程中，百扬大

厦将起到怎样的作用？

答：面对成都这座历史名城的国际

化大潮，作为有影响力的本土企业，我们

有着同样的抱负，更有强烈的责任感投身

这一大潮。拔地而起的百扬大厦，在升级

城市一级商圈的同时，更以一种崭新的姿

态，代表着成都本土企业走向世界、对话

世界、融入世界，引领城市的国际化潮

流，运筹城市商务的全新时代。作为这座

城市的崭新商务地标，百扬大厦愿意代表

成都，对话世界！

问：作为成都的商务旗帜，这次财富

论坛在成都召开，百扬大厦有没有针对性

地安排国际性的推广活动？

答：正如你所谈到的，百扬大厦代表

着成都的商务形象。对我们来说，百扬大

厦不仅是位于城市中心的国际商务地标，

而且是成都城市精神的一种承载。众所周

知，成都的蜀文化囊括了关公的忠诚、诸

葛亮的智慧、刘备的仁义……时至今日，

成都人仍以之为傲。对于百扬大厦来说，

忠诚、智慧、仁义的城市精神，也是当今

时代最需要的商务精神。秉承这一理念，

我们最近将陆续推出系列商战题材的微电

影，通过关羽、诸葛亮、刘备等三国人物

来重新诠释现代商务精神。希望通过视频

网站、微博、微信等多渠道传递百扬大厦

所秉承和推崇的商道精神，让世界更深度

地了解百扬大厦，热爱成都这座财富之

城、成功之都！

百扬大厦是成都百扬实业有限公司历时精心铸造最具商业向心力的“城市地标”。大厦占地面积14.2亩，建筑总面积近14万平方

米；楼层总数共计42层，其中地上37层，地下5层，约500个地下停车位；是集国际甲级写字楼、高端时尚百货、云顶观景商务会

所及高档餐饮等多种业态的商业综合体，具备国际会议、商务办公、购物、餐饮休闲等复合形商务、商业功能。

June 2013 27

China is addicted to debt and shows few signs of kicking the habit, says Francis Cheung

Weighed down

Credit can be like steroids for

developing countries. Pump

loans to businesses and gov-

ernments, and they will be better able

to tap into the latent opportunities of

an undeveloped economy.

But as Francis Cheung, head of

China and Hong Kong strategy at

brokerage CLSA, points out, China

has become addicted to debt to fuel

growth. And like habitual steroid use,

eventually growing debt will threaten

the health of the overall system.

Cheung has just authored a report

sounding the alarm on how the lev-

els of debt are piling up with no sign

of slowing while bringing fewer ben-

efits to the economy. More than half

of China’s total debt was added in the

past four years, the bulk of which came

from shadow banking and bonds. The

country’s debt level sits at roughly

205% of GDP as of 2012.

On the sidelines of the CLSA China

Forum 2013 in Beijing in May, Cheung

spoke to China Economic Review

about where the biggest risks lie and

possible solutions, even if it’s unlikely

they’ll be enacted.

China’s debt problems have been

growing for some time but, particu-

larly this year, they have been the

subject of more scrutiny. Why do you

think that is?

For me, it’s pretty straightforward.

China had a big stimulus in 2009, I

understand that. We had a lot of debt,

I understand that. But since 2009, we

just kept on adding more debt. In the

first quarter, social financing increased

58% year-on-year. I just didn’t get it.

And the [GDP] growth wasn’t grow-

ing. So for investors who are shrewd-

er, they’re saying, “Hey, we’re adding

more debt but we aren’t seeing more

growth. What’s happening here?” For

the more widely read public, they’re

saying, “Hey, there’s been some big

downgrades on China’s debt from

Moody’s and Fitch” because the debt is

higher than they anticipated.

You keep running harder to stay

still now. Ultimately, the simple

answer is that it takes more debt to

generate growth rate now. And that

means the growth rate is probably

too high; it’s probably not a sustain-

able growth rate. The question is

what growth rate should we target?

And would the leadership allow for a

more sustainable growth rate and let

the debt stabilize? Or are they going to

go for a higher growth rate and let the

debt build up?

Remember, we’re at about 200%

debt to GDP now, and we had a bunch

of debt downgrades already. I think

that could go to 250% by 2015. Can we

maintain a 7% growth rate? That I think

is what we’re thinking about internally.

[Some have said] China can grow at

8%. I have no doubt we can grow at 8%.

But tell me what will the debt be if we

grow at 8%? I say we do 7%.

The world is a strange place now:

Adding debt is not a bad thing. Printing

money is not a bad thing. Can you keep

it going? Yeah, you can print money

now. So you can keep it going. In fact,

China is not printing money, all this

hot money is coming into the country.

It is the one place not printing money.

China isn’t a rich country. At 250%

[debt to GDP ratio], you’re actually

pushing US kind of levels. I see it as a

big anchor [weighing down the coun-

try].

China is headed toward the mid-

dle income trap, where wages could

be too high to compete in low-end

industries but the country is not yet

on an equal footing with developed

countries to compete at the high end.

What impact will debt have on this?

I did an analysis that said local govern-

ment debt was serviceable. But because

you have spent a lot of money servicing

this debt, that’s already a half-a-percent

drag on your GDP growth. The more

debt you have, the more drag to your

INTER VIE W

Francis Cheung

June 201328

GDP growth because more money is

going to service the debt. And that’s

why I say the debt is a drag.

Also, if the debt was really produc-

tive, I don’t think it would be climbing

that fast. I think you’d have a high-

er growth rate instead of a declining

growth rate … It’s only going to get

worse. I don’t see marginal efficiency

of debt getting better.

What does the middle income trap

really tell you? You can’t compete at

the low end because your wages are too

high, but you can’t compete at the high

end because you don’t have the R&D

… China needs to be more innovative

than anyone else to move out of the

middle income trap … China has to

become more productive. Productivity

has decreased, that’s why the debt is

increasing. So we need to reverse that

somehow.

You’re saying that amounts spent on

servicing higher debt could be spent

on encouraging industries based on

consumption, for example?

Yes. Health care, pensions. You can

invest in consumption, build a social

safety net. In the investment [growth

model] angle, I’m not really sure

what’s left because even the strategic

industries are all overcapacity. What

likely needs to happen is let the private

sector have more places to invest, then

they can borrow the money and use it

more productively. This will make the

[state-owned enterprises] take a big

hit, which is dangerous because SOEs

aren’t very competitive to begin with,

then you can actually have increased

productivity. There’s just no magic

solution here. This is from research

we’ve done a while ago: No country

has become rich by growing SOEs.

Countries become rich because they

have a dynamic private sector.

You said in your presentation that

SOEs are most at risk of bad debt. If

the country shifts away from SOEs,

won’t that raise that risk of bad debt?

There’s a section of the presentation

about how sustainable the debt is,

where I review everything … The worst

[debt holders] I found were the SOEs

because their return on equity was

5% with an 115% debt to equity ratio.

If I were a bank, I wouldn’t be lend-

ing to these guys. It isn’t the absolute

[amount of debt] I’m worried about,

it’s the trend. The State-owned Assets

Supervision and Administration Com-

mission (SASAC, China’s regulator of

SOEs) is quite worried about this, ear-

lier they said they wanted the SOEs to

raise profit growth by about 10%. I’m

not sure how they can do that. The

only way they can do that is if they cut

expenses further … You shouldn’t be

giving debt to companies that only gen-

erate a return on equity of 5%.

Local government debt is a problem,

in part, because they have few means

of raising money. Could property tax

generate the needed revenue?

The property tax for some reason has

been very disappointing … It’s not

that mechanically hard to do. People

say it is, but I question that. But you

can always find a way around that by

saying that all new transactions are

subject to property tax and grandfather

in the old ones. But obviously there’s a

lot of vested interests [that oppose it].

Especially in Beijing here, we should

have been one of the first places to

have it but don’t have it. There’s too

many vested interest here.

June 2013 29

P31 云端突击

P38 挑战全球化

P42 解码微信营销

P46 汽车后市场嬗变

转型与突围

封面故事

June 201330

云端突击中国企业应抓住云时代的机遇实现转型与升级文 | 晗军

中国企业特别是制造业近年来的整体

运营成本在不断攀升。过去依赖低

资源使用成本，低价占领全球市场的时代

正在快速终结，而其他发展中经济体在不

断崛起，呈现出更具吸引力的资源优势，

成熟的制造业面临重新布局。另一方面，

全球成熟的发达经济体持续低迷，发达国

家的需求日益萎缩，中国经济大环境的不

确定因素持续增加，信息化时代竞争加

剧，产品同质化现象日趋严重。企业转型

迫在眉睫，却又举步维艰。究竟怎样才能

冲出重围，浴火重生？

云管理时代互联网的快速发展将推动传统行业实

现升级换代。一系列统计数据佐证了这一

趋势。

艾瑞咨询数据显示，截至去年12月

底，阿里巴巴小额贷款业务（包括浙江阿

里巴巴小额贷款股份有限公司与重庆阿里

巴巴小额贷款股份有限公司两大实体）

累计服务企业超过20万家，户均贷款额

为67000元。去年，网络购物交易额为

13030.3亿元，占比社会消费品零售总额

为6.29%；今年第一季度，网络购物交易

额为3520.8亿元，占比社会消费品零售总

额为6.35%。网络购物对实体经济的渗透

越发明显。

“互联网行业的快速发展，对实体经

济以及传统行业的影响也愈来愈大。互联

网对于实体经济与传统行业的影响主要体

现在促进传统行业改变、补充传统行业服

务盲区、促进线上线下融合三个方面。”

艾瑞咨询分析师徐昊表示。

云时代起源于云计算机，源于以社交

为主的信息经济逐步转向大数据时代和移

动互联网时代，而现在管理模式充分运用

社交技术、移动科技、云计算等多种新兴

技术，因而进入了云管理时代。

金蝶国际软件集团董事局主席徐少春

认为，中国企业正处在令人兴奋的移动互

联网时代和崭新的云管理时代，这也是中

国企业家感到特别纠结的时代。

他发现很多企业存在如下弊端：依靠

单一商业模式，研发比较封闭，距离客户

很远，运营效率很低，成本很高，缺乏创

新基因，凝聚力不强；企业领导还不习惯

用更加民主的方式来管理，而是习惯家长

式的管理。

“云管理能够帮助我们破解这些纠

结。”徐少春说道。他提到的一份调查资

料显示，80%的财富500强公司主管表

示，在企业范围内的社交化协同能力将是

未来成功的关键；56%受访的公司主管相

信，云管理将使他们的组织更加灵活、更

具竞争力；90%的公司将在2014年前支持

基于个人智能终端的企业应用。

移动互联、社交网络、云计算三大技

术催生的云管理模式正成为促进企业转型

的强劲推动力。徐少春表示，金蝶已将社

交网络金蝶微博与ERP有机结合，使原本

刻板、机械的ERP流程在原有基础上注入

了生活化、人性化元素，使企业管理更有

趣、更随意、更流畅，这将颠覆现有管理

模式，引导企业员工从被动管理走向主动

管理，不断汇聚正能量，通过每个人的自

我管理来实现组织卓有成效的管理。

加强风险管控从2008年的金融危机到2010年的欧

债危机到现在的后危机时代，从世界范围

来看，金融危机深层次的影响仍在显现。

如企业投资信心不足，内需拉动不起来。

中国经济增长速度首次跌破“8”，国际货

币基金组织对今年的增速预期也放低了。

国际经济形势萎靡不振，中国经济形势受

大环境影响，导致在未来一个时间段内将

会是低增长的态势。

June 2013 31

“当前经济环境下，处于转型期的

中国企业需要面对两大挑战：首先是规模

扩大化的趋势，这要求我们在未来10年

甚至更长时间要强化集团管控、实现转型

升级。其次是新技术的创新，包括管理技

术的创新，如移动互联网、社交网络、云

计算等新兴技术的应用，已经在改变传统

的管理模式，这迫使我们要将新技术作为

转型的支撑力量，而不是被新技术所淘

汰。”金蝶软件集团管控高级顾问王晨光

分析道。

在经济下行的情况下，企业的声音

是什么？在去年的一个国企会议上，国资

委财务监督与考核评价局一位处长表示：

“过去财务工作更多是以核算和报告为重

点的传统财务管理，未来应更多地向集团

管控、价值管理，共享服务等方向发展。

加强集团管控仍是央企管理的核心。”

“ 欧 洲 债 务 危 机 持 续 发 酵 ， 导 致

2012年公司各项成本费用大幅上浮。因

此，公司在费用报销时，增加了重要的一

条，除了财务合规外，就是不能超预算报

销，费用控制额外严格。”中石化集团财

务部负责人表示。

格力总裁董明珠去年曾说：“格力电

器的IT规划希望能够给出未来10年的发展

战略，要能够支撑格力掌控全中国、乃至

海内外所有成员单位的经营状况，加强对

成员单位的管控。”

经济下行时期企业面临经营困难：订

单在减少，销售业绩和利润在下滑，费用

成本难以有效控制，大量的应收账款难以

收回，库存占用大量的资金积压，从而增

加了企业的运营成本。

根据企业经营所面临的困惑，再看集

团型企业，这一市场上经济主体的发展也

存在软肋。集团公司具有规模经济效益、

速度效益、网络效益，但集团公司本身由

于是跨地域，子公司在为集团创造利益的

同时也带来了管理黑洞，集团总部在创造

价值时也会有巨大的内耗。面对企业的经

营压力和自身瓶颈，应该如何应对？

“越是在经济环境不好的时候，越

是要加强企业财务的管控，越是要摸清家

底，对资源进行有效整合。”金蝶集团财

务管控首席专家尚惠红说道。

国家5个部委于2008年联合发布《企

业内部控制基本规范》，要求中国企业按

规范施行，其中包括财务、运营、合规和

风险管理等。

王晨光说道：“集团财务管控需要严

谨、完整、一丝不苟，云管理的工具能够

让它变得轻松无比。”

尚惠红介绍，金蝶ERP现在名为“

社交化ERP”—云管理的转型推动了移

动应用，手机、iPad可以将ERP、财务信

息、人员信息等随时随地进行业务处理。

还有社交应用，前段时间金蝶微博“云之

家”上线，而社交化ERP是基于协同合

作沟通处理，可以将集团财务部全部加入

关注，成为一个小组，实时在线与他们沟

通，也可以对ERP与“云之家”这样的微

博产品进行无缝集成。过去要打电话查，

现在通过微博可以实时在线与所在小组沟

通，与想要了解的相关人和事沟通。还有

金蝶友商在线，这是金蝶2008年推出的社

交化ERP产品战略。

云技术、移动网络和微博的出现，打

破了过去的条条框框，促使沟通更便捷、

社交更畅达。尚惠红表示，云时代的金蝶

新产品特性更加聚焦在“社交、标准、开

放”。

柳工集团正在做内控体制建设，在

设计体制时主要考虑的问题是要让内控落

地，而不仅仅是形成纸面文件。柳工集团

CIO兼总裁助理王庚表示：“我们把内控

提到信息化的角度来看，也就是给信息化

的发展规划赋予灵魂，基于内控为导向来

建立信息化发展规划。”

从目前发展来看，信息化技术将各项

指标抽取出来进行内部对比和分析，能够

承担内控的大部分职责。“当然也有一部

分不可控的风险，信息化还不能够解决，

只能通过人工来处理。”他说道。

封面故事

抓住云管理的契机实现转型和突围

June 201332

加大两端投入“中国制造业经过30年的高速发展，

从创业到崛起到行销世界，现在进入了痛

苦的转型期。”清华大自动化系统集成研

究所所长范玉顺教授表示，“现在是两头

受挤，美国、欧洲发展高端制造；而低端

制造在流失，日子不好过。”

金蝶中国PLM总架构师姚文兵分析

道：“30年来中国制造业之所以所向披

靡，最根本的原因是成本优势，而近年来

成本优势已逐步丧失。”

“企业应该寻找到生态链条。”姚文

兵指出，中国制造企业数量庞大，但没有

形成良好的企业生态链，没有对产业链资

源进行很好的整合，很多制造企业管理比

较粗放，导致整体经济效率偏低。

中国制造企业一直处在微笑曲线的

底端。“我们一直想方设法突破，这么多

年来一直在努力，但产生效果需要较长时

间，需要社会各方面包括教育和法律的共

同努力。”他说道。

中国大量引入外资，也创办了众多的

合资企业，希望通过市场换取先进技术。

但从效果看，似乎并没有换来很多新技

术，制造企业依然创新乏力。本土企业如

何才能真正具备创新能力？

早在20年前施振荣就提出了微笑曲线

的理论，直到今天仍然适用，而且更加凸

现其深刻的管理内涵。施振荣认为，应该

积极加大对微笑曲线两端（市场和产品研

发）的投入。因为市场是创新的龙头，有

了市场需求自然就会引发创新，随着对创

新的不断投入，创新能力就会逐步提升。

他相信，只要找到方法，在二三十年时间

里持之以恒，中国制造就一定会跻身世界

一流行列。

海尔双赢模式一些优秀的中国企业经过几十年探索

出来的管理实践也越来越受本地企业家的

关注，如海尔的“人单合一双赢”模式、

华为基本法、联想的“建班子、定战略、

带队伍”企业管理理念等。

海尔集团高级副总裁兼首席财务官谭

丽霞透露，去年上半年大约有33家企业到

海尔集团取经，他们普遍陷入高库存、高

成本和低利润的困境。

张瑞敏说过：“企业现在唯一能做

的就是跟上用户点击鼠标的速度。”这正

是海尔管理创新希望实现的目标。海尔

“人单合一双赢”模式的本质就是希望能

够发挥每一个人的才能和价值。互联网时

代对于企业的挑战是“无边界”。企业成

功的标志不是拥有多少资源，而是能够创

造出多少资源。“人单合一双赢”模式是

员工和利益相关方为了用户资源的共同目

标而工作，为了实现员工与利益相关方的

共赢，也是一种新的激励文化。

“以用户为中心，企业的组织一定

要改变。我们在转型过程中，首先把组织

从正三角变成倒三角—核心是观念的改

变，由原来员工听领导，领导要干什么就

干什么，变成员工听市场的，企业听员工

的。”谭丽霞说道。

海尔8万名员工已变成2000多个自

主经营体，形成了由市场驱动的网状小组

织，他们不是在领导的组织下工作，而是

在创造用户价值这个统一的全员契约下工

作。海尔赋予这些小组织新的运行机制，

也即“三权”机制：给员工用人权、分配

权和现场决策权。

最主要的工具是青岛管理创新专利

001号，核心是“战略损益表”。第一项

是围绕用户零距离的战略，看用户资源到

底在哪里。第二项是用什么样的组织资源

来创造用户价值。第三项是在无边界的用

户资源下，用什么流程来做。最后是从

“人单合一”的角度来考察用户资源、无

边界团队和流程是否优化。

再看变革的效果。从2007年起实

施，海尔过去5年的复合利润增长率达到

38%。今天，海尔已成为世界白色家电

第一品牌。张瑞敏说过，“没有成功的企

业，只有失败的经验。企业不管做什么，

只要踏准了时代的节拍，就一定会成功。”

海尔的战略转型方向，从1984年张

瑞敏主政以来，经历了名牌战略阶段、多

元化战略阶段、国家化战略阶段、全球化

品牌战略阶段。海尔的“人单合一双赢”

管理模式是为了适应全球化品牌战略的需

要而提出，这种管理模式是将员工为客户

创造的价值和客户资源合在一起，以员工

创造的客户价值体现自身的价值，每个人

成为细分单位经营体的成员。提出的背景

是全球化的挑战、互联网时代的机遇与挑

战、行业之间的激烈竞争等多种因素。

海尔也提出了自己的变革措施，如变革模

式、理念先行、倒三角组织体系、建立自

主经营体运营管理体系、为人才提供保

障、有氛围的企业文化。变革的目的是实

现战略转型、重塑竞争优势、激发活力。

某种技术的突破将会带来全面的变

革，中国企业能否抓住云管理的机会，为

转型和突围助一臂之力？著名管理学家成

思危指出，根据中国管理模式的三角模

型：深邃的管理哲学、先进的管理理论再

加上杰出的管理实践，这三者结合起来，

才能真正地创造出中国的管理模式。

June 2013 33

The US will match China on the cost of manufacturing by 2015. Companies in both countries must adapt, write Ivo Naumann and Steve Maurer of AlixPartners

The Transition Puzzle

COVER STORY

June 201334

It happens regularly in virtually

every segment of every indus-

try: A newcomer arrives, offers

an advantage that competitors

in the segment can’t match

and rapidly begins to build both its

business and market share.

What often follows, however, is also

predictable: The market adapts, the

advantage diminishes and the new-

comer finds that it is in a vulnerable,

rather than valued, situation.

Early in the last decade, China

became both the disrupting newcomer

in the global manufacturing sector and

the attractive, often low-priced, suppli-

er – so much so that in the West “off-

shoring” became nearly synonymous

with “made in China.” Two years

ago, however, the sea change toward

China began to equalize. In fact, new

AlixPartners research reveals that –

according to current trends such as

wage inflation in China and exchange

rates that impact total landed costs

(that is, all aspects of bringing a prod-

uct to its point-of-sale) – the US is on

track to achieve cost parity with China

as a base for manufacturing operations

by 2015. In other words, on average,

manufacturing an item in the US to be

sold there will cost the same amount

as manufacturing it in China and ship-

ping it back to the US.

The problems with cost parityWhen companies in one country can

offer the kind of significantly lower

manufacturing costs that China has

been able to provide, a number of

issues are often overlooked as “the cost

of doing business.” For US companies

doing business with China, those issues

include having to deal with a long sup-

ply chain, the need to often carry more

inventory and the risk of obsolescence

when a product takes a month or long-

er to be shipped across the ocean.

Cost parity between China and the

US would change that dynamic dra-

matically. It makes executives question

where it is best to invest – and do busi-

ness – in the future.

It’s already shifting executive atti-

tudes. AlixPartners also recently con-

ducted a survey of 137 top manufac-

turing executives in the US across a

wide range of more than 10 different

industries. Overall, 84% said the deci-

sion to “nearshore” (in other words,

source from the Americas) is impor-

tant to their respective companies, up

from 53% in last year’s survey. Nearly

half of those surveyed view nearshor-

ing as an opportunity, and 90% of

that amount either have nearshored or

expect to nearshore in the next two to

three years.

There are two important lessons to

be drawn from this research: One for

US companies considering a shift from

offshoring in China to nearshoring in,

for instance, Mexico and another for

Chinese companies looking to remain

competitive when low wages are no

longer the main driver.

US firms, look before you leapFor companies considering nearshor-

ing, the most attractive advantages are

generally lower freight costs and the

ability to move products to market

faster. Perhaps the most eye-opening

news from our recent survey is that

June 2013 35

executives said the US is an equally

attractive location for nearshoring as

Mexico is.

There is, however, a significant

caveat when interpreting this research

– Average statistics for industries or

manufacturing overall should not be

applied blindly when making specific

decisions. Instead, a full analysis must

be done of the product type, location,

transportation and other variables

affecting total landed costs, including

duties and the expense of inventory in

transit.

Assuming that all instances will

adhere to industry-wide statistics when

making decisions regarding products

and services illustrates the inherent

danger in not “looking before you

leap.” Not all products and situations

adhere ot the averages. A deeper analy-

sis of the data shows that China still

COVER STORY

has – and is expected to continue to

have – the cost advantage in items such

as machined aluminium parts, plastic

molded parts, non-denim slacks and

knit apparel, to name a few.

Other factors to consider before

making manufacturing changes

include those inherent in switching

sources of manufacturing, such as the

capital hurdles involved in tooling and

transition, exchange rates and regula-

tory approvals. China, for its part, still

has advantages it can hone to counter

– and perhaps blunt – current trends.

For Chinese companies, more than the price must be rightLow labor costs, combined with a busi-

ness-friendly regulatory environment

and an abundance of both skilled and

unskilled workers, have long been a

boon to the Chinese economy.

In certain areas, Chinese companies

are likely to continue to have a cost

advantage. In others, however, poten-

tial cost parity will lead corporate deci-

sion makers to look at other means of

differentiating their business and will

force the conversation to shift beyond

cost and toward the larger issue of

overall value.

This is especially significant on the

global stage where both India’s rupee

and Mexico’s peso have weakened,

reducing those countries’ costs relative

to both Chinese and US production.

Our research suggests that Chinese

companies would do well to quickly

institute measures that simultaneously

distance themselves from perceptions

they are “lowest cost providers” and

demonstrate their potential strength

higher up the value chain in areas such

as manufacturing design support.

June 201336

To do this, however, requires over-

coming the reservations that many US

companies have about sharing trade

secrets and intellectual property with

Chinese companies. Even the most

ethical Chinese companies will need

to overcompensate when protecting

customer proprietary data to over-

come the reputation that many Chi-

nese companies have for unscrupu-

lously copying parts and products. To

do so will take time, which is why the

need to take the next step and become

a valued supplier partner cannot start

too soon.

AlixPartners is a global firm offering

advisory services including enterprise

improvement, turnaround and restruc-

turing, financial advisory services and

information management services.

Ivo Naumann and Steve Maurer are managing directors at AlixPartners, a

global business advisory firm. Naumann heads the firm’s activities in mainland

China, and Maurer leads the firm’s manufacturing practice for the Americas.

June 2013 37

挑战全球化通过跨国并购实现进军全球市场的宏大目标文 | 铁琴

虽然中国企业“走出去”已历经30

个年头，但仍习惯将“本土”和

“海外”划分为泾渭分明的区域，将“本

土”视为管理、决策和研发的大本营，将

“海外”定义为开拓资源和销路的新空

间。近几年，随着自身产品与竞争力的显

著增强，不少优秀的中国企业开始进行真

正的全球化资源配置和布局，通过“走出

去”获取综合竞争力，实现从“国际化”

向“全球化”的转变。

“世界正在变平，中国也正在向全球

最大经济体前进，这不是会不会的问题，

而仅是时间的问题。与此同时，越来越多

的中国企业正在步入全球化的新阶段，面

临的挑战也是巨大的。” 西门子中国总裁

兼CEO程美玮表示。

天津聚龙集团董事长杨学犟说道：

“我们始终坚信一点：全球化是一张单程

票，必须坚定地走下去，只有在世界舞台

上经受历练，才能真正获得全球化的竞争

力。”

跨国并购是中国企业“全球化”的重

要途径之一。根据私募通统计，今年4月

共完成6起跨国并购，其中海外并购4起，

外资并购2起。4月跨国并购共有5起案例

披露金额，披露总金额为2.33亿美元。其

中，披露交易金额最大的是中石化冠德收

购荷兰Vesta Terminals。该案例是中石

化冠德继完成收购印尼PT. West Point之

后的又一海外并购案例。Vesta Termi-

nals主要经营石油产品和生物燃料的仓储

码头，该项收购有利于中石化冠德提升经

营海外仓储的经验，进而有机会实现其散

装液体仓储码头业务在欧洲的扩张。

联想模式联想并购IBM PC是一个著名案例。

《再联想》作者张小平提出了“联想模

式”的概念，这也正是联想国际化10年的

经验总结。联想模式包含了屋顶图、双模

式、双拳战略、赢文化、4P文化、文化鸡

尾酒、六字方针、创新三角、LEC领导架

构、拐大弯策略和信息化建设等10多条经

验。

联想具有很强的学习精神，像吸水海

绵般拼命学习，好学习、懂学习，自信而

不自卑地向标杆企业讨教，这无疑成为它

迅速成长的基础。柳传志当年穿着旧西装

参加IBM在北京的盛会，那份莫名激动和

希望心情至今难忘；为充分直接交流与坦

诚沟通，杨元庆克服困难坚持学习英语，

经过数载摸索、学习、沉淀，最后一鸣惊

人；2000年秋天，联想高管们飞往美国

考察学习，试图到大洋彼岸的硅谷寻求答

案。

人们总习惯性地以2004年12月8日收

购IBM PC部门作为联想国际化的起点。

也有那些对联想历史稍有了解的人，可能

会把时间推前到2000年9月，将杨元庆及

联想高管团队的“美国硅谷之行”视为扬

帆远航的起锚之时。然而事实皆非如此。

张小平研究发现，其实早在联想成立之

封面故事

越来越多的中国企业正在步入全球化的新阶段

June 201338

初，就具备了“国际化基因”。他引证的

例子是1988年4月18日，那时联想早已

完成了起先承诺的“年产值200万元”的

“宣誓”目标，柳传志将政府官员、公司

客户和媒体记者都请进人民大会堂，当众

宣布了“进军海外誓师大会”。联想制定

了详细的“三步走”战略：第一步，进军

香港，建立一家贸易型公司，用以积累资

金，了解市场，探索国际化经验，为海外

扩张做准备；第二步，建立起一家包括研

发中心、生产基地和国际营销网络，集研

究、生产和销售的技、工、贸一体的跨国

公司；第三步，形成规模经济，努力跻身

发达国家计算机产业行列。

联想的宏伟蓝图多少有点理想化色

彩，这也与它的产品、受众、专营渠道以

及品牌定位有关。与华为不同，联想做的

是庞大、活跃、时尚的PC及互联网市场，

所以“联想必须保持更为开放、更为积极

和更为敏锐的姿态”。与高调的作风、常

处在舆论的风口浪尖的处境不同，联想也

非常注重内在的修炼，重视打造扎实的管

理系统。1990年就出台了《联想集团管理

大纲》，“将联想发展成跨国集团”被写

入大纲，并从制度到行动上予以保障。4

年后，也就是“誓师大会”后的第六年，

联想在香港成功上市，正式进驻这个桥头

堡。

香 港 只 是 联 想 国 际 化 征 程 的 第 一

站，至于随后的故事，很多人都耳熟能

详。2003年，联想将“Legend”的旧

Logo换为全新的“Lenovo”。当年底，

正在寻觅海外并购契机的联想收到IBM抛

出的橄榄枝，此后经过一年多的论证与谈

判，联想终于以12.5亿美元的价格收购

IBM PC业务。

宝贵经验同样是“引进来，走出去”。联想

的个案让人联想到华为、海尔、TCL与中

兴，也包括上汽、平安、中铝、中海油。

尽管人们不得不承认，在中国企业的国际

化大潮中，成功者凤毛麟角，失败者不计

其数，但成败之间，前述这些企业有很多

值得学习与品鉴的地方。例如张小平指

出，与联想、TCL通过海外并购的跨越式

激进做法不同，海尔采取相对温和的国际

化路径：自建为主，并购为辅。华为与中

兴这两家电信设备商也是稳健、谨慎的渐

进式国际化的践行者。华为董事长任正非

深谙“农村包围城市”的精妙，这样做既

能避免华为因国际化管理和运营经验的不

足而带来的损失，又真正接触了当地市场

和消费者，为以后深耕市场、开疆辟土打

下基础。

30多年来，中国许多企业一度辉煌

却又难以避免失败的命运，大多数与速度

有关，不是“快死”就是“慢死”。企业

发展速度的快与慢、脉动节奏的拍子，那

是非常讲究谋略及境界，因为时时刻刻都

与市场、行业、国家和世界有关。而企业

知进退是最难的，如果企业领导者一意孤

行、执迷不悟，最终结果可想而知。联想

总是及时调整战略，善于总结经验教训，

总能恰到好处地掌握着进退的节奏感，深

知分寸。前提一定是企业领导者及其高管

团队的睿智、敏感与前瞻思维。

走出中国迈向世界，将“联想”延伸

到全球市场的每一角落。其实跨国收购、

并购不算难，满世界去设立分厂、分公司

也不算难，最难是在文化的融合、人才之

间的沟通融和、团队彼此间的磨合；只有

企业文化融合好了，才能通行无阻地遨游

世界。而联想的国际化提供了借鉴，他们

已取得初步的宝贵经验。

联想并购IBM PC业务后，东西方文

化的冲突和矛盾、激荡和碰撞势必扑面而

来。但联想并没有强制性地用一种文化替

代另一种文化或者偏重某种文化，这就为

融合提供了先决条件。在融合过程中，联

想提出“坦诚、尊重、妥协”的六字方

针，并且将IBM讲究创新、尊重员工、服

务客户、追求卓越等因素吸收进来。

杨 元 庆 在 多 个 不 同 的 场 合 曾 经 说

过：“大杂烩的公司不可能成为伟大的公

司，联想在中国成功的文化基础和业务模

式基础是联想未来的根。”

2011年9月8日，联想正处于国际化

的上升期内，柳传志在这一天表情轻松而

语气坚定地说：“我很慎重很认真地宣

布，联想国际化已经成功。”

进入全球市场后怎么办？“机遇稍纵

即逝，变幻莫测的全球市场更是如此，把

握住市场的动向是为了掌握扩张的最佳时

机。要在国际市场上取得成功，必然要随

时关注市场动向，合理预测并牢牢把握住

机会。在信息时代，中国企业在此方面需

要投入更大的精力，合理有效地利用有价

值的信息，通过研究产生效应。” 罗兰贝

格高级合伙人刘文波说道。

完成国际化的中国企业还须具备怎样

的条件才堪称“伟大的公司”？“若要成

就伟大公司要关注三点：首先要始终关注

和激励优秀的人才，第二要做到有利润的

高质量增长，第三要打造卓越的品牌。”

程美玮说道。

June 2013 39

COVER STORY

After the Alibaba-Weibo deal, necessity will breed innovation at Tencent

Backed into a corner

The news of e-commerce giant

Alibaba Group buying a chunk

of the Sina Weibo microblog-

ging service shook the Chinese tech

industry more than any deal since last

year’s online video merger of Youku

and Tudou.

Alibaba and Sina will make for for-

midable partners and likely have other

industry heavyweights on the backfoot.

Alibaba is the country’s largest e-com-

merce company with a near monopoly

on the industry through its Taobao and

Tmall online sales platforms. Weibo,

owned by Sina, is China’s leading social

media service.

Notably under threat are Tencent

Holdings and Baidu.com. The Alibaba-

Sina deal will better be able to oppose

the rise of Tencent’s social chat service,

WeChat, which has been a runaway hit

for the company that previously relied

on a more traditional instant messaging

service and online gaming. Baidu, the

country’s leading search engine, may

find a rival to its dominance in online

advertising after the Alibaba and Weibo

tie-up. The new partnership will force

both companies to adjust strategies.

Baidu’s main moneymaker is adver-

tising – it holds 30.9% market share in

online ad revenue as of 2012 – associ-

ated with its lock on the search engine

market. But e-commerce No. 1 Alibaba

is also deceptively the No. 2 online ad

player with a 15.3% market share.

The fear for Baidu is that Sina might

limit its access to real-time searches

of Weibo content, as investment bank

Citi pointed out in a recent note. (With

commanding 80% market share in

search, Baidu is unlikely to be barred

from Sina content outright, however.)

Alibaba could also direct its vendors to

advertise more on Weibo and could try

to make the microblog service a more

prominent entry point to Taobao and

Tmall rather than Baidu searches.

Tencent, by contrast, mostly faces

a threat to its WeChat social chatting

service. That service, which allows

instant messaging with friends that is

more intimate, is gaining users far fast-

er than Weibo and appears to have sto-

len the online momentum that Weibo

previously had. The Alibaba-Sina deal,

however, means it will no longer be

only WeChat that wins.

Both Tencent and Sina have strug-

gled to monetize their respective social

media services and now Sina will clear-

ly take the lead. The Alibaba deal will

bring Sina US$380 million in ad and

e-commerce revenue over the next

three years.

Baidu’s challenges may seem dis-

tant from Tencent’s, but the goal for all

companies is similar: attracting users

who have a finite amount of time to be

online, regardless of whether they are

shopping for handbags, watching “The

Big Bang Theory” or chatting with

friends. Each firm wants to maximize

the time spent on their service and

then try to get the most money out of

those users. The Alibaba-Sina deal will

attempt to fence users further into the

two sizeable realms of each company.

Tencent and Baidu will need to take

very different approaches in this fight

for user time and money. Baidu has

June 201340

全球十大顶级房产商竞相首秀LuxProperty第十届上海臻品物业(春)私人品鉴会圆满举办

作为中国最高档的顶级物业私人展览，LuxProperty 2013第十届上海臻品物业(春)私人品鉴会日前于

2013年4月13-14日两天在上海美术馆顶层K5会所成功举办。

全球十大知名地产商纷纷将本届LuxProperty臻品展作为亮相中国市场的独家首秀平台，带来

了精心挑选的臻品豪宅项目，引起现场买家的强烈兴趣和关注。包括堪称全球十大地产开发商之一的

英国最大开发商Barratt邦瑞、澳洲Sunland、香港兴业集团、美国AEG集团、塞浦路斯Pafilia、巴

哈马Bahama等纷纷展示其屡获殊荣的旗舰住宅。

两天内，LuxProperty臻品展共有725位上海高净值财富买家到场参观，现场达成意向成交超过

2亿元人民币，每个展台平均累计近100位潜在买家。根据主办方的现场调查及访问，发现国内高端买

家对于海外臻品华宅的购买意愿非常热切，每套总价为60-120万美金的项目倍受关注，而主要热门

国家仍为英国、美国和澳大利亚。绝大多数买家表示购房的目的在于投资、子女教育和移民。

经过五年的不断创新、求变、升华，LuxProperty臻品展业已成为全球房地产业首屈一指的顶

级私人展览，为高端买家和奢华物业搭建最佳交流平台。第十届LuxProperty臻品展再次打破普通展

览的常规格局，让每位到场贵宾在优雅奢华的氛围中寻找到属于自己的梦想居所。

already decided that rather than going

head-to-head with Alibaba and Sina,

it will bet on online video as a way to

advertise. The search company con-

solidated its control of video streaming

site iQiyi in 2012 and announced that it

would buy the video unit of PPStream.

Baidu will go up against a differ-

ent set of players in video. The recent

deals will give Baidu a combined mar-

ket share of 16.1%, leapfrogging to the

No. 2 spot behind Youku-Tudou with

21.5%. PPS is also strong in mobile

streaming, an underdeveloped area.

Unlike Baidu, Alibaba and Sina,

Tencent does not have the option to

look outward and partner up with

other players. Tencent will continue

to make small acquisitions, but there

aren’t clear deals to be that would come

close to rivaling Alibaba and Sina.

Instead, the company must look

inward to innovate and get netizens to

spend time and money on their serv-

ices, rather than merely buying users.

The number of WeChat downloads

continues to grow, so the key will be

making money off of that expanding

user base. The company is taking steps

to do that by adding the ability to make

purchases from within the app.

That alone won’t be enough. Ten-

cent has its work cut out for it, with less

than 5% share of both business-to-con-

sumer online sales and the advertising

market in 2012.

But if any company can innovate

itself out of a tight spot, it’s Tencent.

The firm has proven to be one of Chi-

na’s most dynamic internet companies.

The firm first succeeded with its tra-

ditional instant messaging service QQ

but later found purchase in gaming.

As online gaming growth slowed,

Tencent again delivered with WeChat.

Two years ago, few would have pre-

dicted the runaway success of the

mobile social messaging service given

the newfound dominance Weibo. The

app has the potential to go global,

which would be a first for a Chinese

internet service.

Unable to buy its way to growth

like Baidu, Tencent has both the track

record and the need to innovate. The

Alibaba-Weibo tie-up may have been

the most recent event to shake up the

Chinese internet. But Tencent may

be the company to watch for the next

major internet game changer.

June 2013 41

解码微信营销这一创新产品有待形成可盈利的商业模式文 | 晗军

当你在公共场所看到有人在用手机不

停地摇晃着，可能意味着此人正在

使用微信的“摇一摇”功能寻找附近的朋

友。上线仅两年，这款由腾讯公司推出的

新产品就迅速走俏。

人们似乎普遍相信，中国企业缺乏

创新能力，中国新媒体的商业模式均从美

国复制而来。但微信的横空出世打破了这

一“魔咒”。

在微信之前，国外的产品进不来、

本土的产品出不去，中国互联网产品形同

“孤岛”已经好多年。上线两年迅速崛起

的微信成为罕见的突围者，而且用户每天

都在飞速增长。

今年1月15日，微信团队在其腾讯官

方微博上宣布其用户突破3亿人。而据艾瑞

咨询统计，截至去年底，中国移动、中国

联通和中国电信三大运营商的移动用户量

分别为7.1亿、2.4亿和1.6亿。（见图表）

此消彼长，微信对移动运营商的短信

业务构成了实质性的冲击。国家工信部今

年3月表示，微博、微信等新型移动信息

服务对短信的替代作用非常显著。微博、

微信的信息发布功能促使用户不再订购短

信类信息服务，使得此类短信量同比下跌

18.5%。

微信使用流量即便按照每兆1元钱的

高资费计算，也可发送接收上千条文字小

消息，而手机短信收费为每条0.1元。微信

可以即时发送文字、语音、图片和视频，

而短信和彩信则只能发送文字和图片。

“如果微信不是以代替短信的方式

出现，很难达到现在目前的规模。”唱吧

CEO陈华认为。

微信于2011年1月上线，积累1亿用

户花了14个月，从1亿用户增长至2亿用

户花了6个月，而从2亿用户增长到3亿用

户，仅用了4个月。这表明微信进入了用

户增长爆发期。资深微信营销专家程小永

和李国建预计，今年年底将达到5亿用户。

进军国际市场2011年4月，微信以英文名WeChat

正式进入国际市场；同年10月开始支持繁

体中文语言界面，增加中国香港、中国澳

门、中国台湾、美国、日本五个地区的用

户绑定手机号，加入英文语言界面；12月

实现支持全球100个国家的短信注册，语

言版本不断增加……已遍及100多个国家

和地区，拥有15种不同语言的版本。

《纽约时报》在一篇文章中将微信评

价为“正积极尝试扭转中国本土互联网产

品无法推向世界的命运”。WeChat在美

国拥有非常好的用户口碑。BDA咨询公司

的董事长邓肯·克拉克（Duncan Clark）

认为，微信打破了长期以来西方对“中国

制造”的刻板成见。据微信项目总监刘乐

君介绍，微信将在美国、东南亚等地建设

数据中心，以加快响应速度，进一步提升

用户体验。

“除了语言的不同，和一些实在绕不

过去的、非常细微的本地化改造，其他的

几乎都是一模一样。”“微信之父”—

腾讯公司高级副总裁张小龙表示，“其实

这一点西方著名企业早就做到了。我们希

望做一款产品，超出了创作地的文化因

封面故事

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

单位：亿

来源：艾瑞咨询

June 201342

素，成为全球通用的一种文化符号。”

“以上只是世界各地人们使用微信

（WeChat）的一个缩影，但却展示了微

信有着深远的民族意义及对企业来说非常

实际的现实意义。这不仅意味着，第一款

来自中国的移动互联网产品受到了全世界

的青睐，更意味着，以后中国企业进行

全球营销，通过我们自己的微信就可以

了。”程小永和李国建在他们合著的《微

信营销解密》中如此写道。

基于交友文化媒体评论员郑渝川认为，微信的传播

基于交友文化，可以导入QQ好友、手机

好友，可以找出身边的人，让用户之间产

生信赖，而这是微博以及互联网时代的其

他通讯、社交工具所无法赋予的特性。

程小永和李国建指出，“微信改变

我们的生活”、“微信改变企业的营销环

境”，而“之所以会被改变，是因为企业

目标用户的沟通交友方式、获取信息及服

务的方式改变了。每一个新媒体的出现，

都会带来企业营销方式的巨变。微信也不

例外，它已经拥有了近4亿用户，而且专为

企业提供了公众平台和技术开发平台，企

业可以在微信上完成从市场调研到客户管

理、客户服务、销售支付、老客户维护、

新客户挖掘等的所有工作。”

“微信已经成为企业精准营销的核

心。”皮皮精灵助理总裁、炎黄网络创始

人管鹏表示。

“微信在满足人类沟通需求基础上建

立起的熟人社交模式与现有的所有媒介都

不一样，它的出现足以变更我们一贯的营

销思路。”《创业家》杂志社社长牛文文

乐观地预计，“微信营销适合于所有想在

移动互联网时代抓住机会的个人和企业。”

安居客CEO梁伟平表示看好微信，

因为创造了一种原来没有的体验，而人们

需要获得精神上的愉悦感。

“微信与新浪微博在移动端相较其他

社交App优势突出。”艾瑞咨询分析师杨

雪斌表示，“微信和新浪微博满足了网民

的沟通、分享等基本社交需求，对其他社

交类App形成使用时长上的威胁。”

如何实现盈利虽然一些支持者将微信说得神乎其

神，但也不乏质疑之声。浙江传媒学院互

联网与社会研究中心秘书长杨吉博士就发

问道，微信的O2O能否形成闭环，它的

网络隐私和安全隐患如何防范？企业可以

利用wifi免费地向众多关注它的客户发布

信息，但会不会因此不加节制逐渐演变成

信息骚扰？企业该如何协调高昂的信息回

复成本和客户较高期望值之间的关系？还

有最重要一点，微信具备了一套完整、成

熟的商业模式了吗？它和其他社会化媒体

比，是互补还是取代，它真的就有过人的

吸金能力吗？

郑渝川表示，借助微信创建的更强用

户黏性和更高信赖度，微信营销浮出水面

也就顺理成章。他指出：“问题在于，从

一般意义上的电子商务，到手机客户端营

销，再到微博营销、微信营销，以及五花

八门、形形色色的‘云营销’新概念，让

企业家、营销人、商业研究者应接不暇。

很多华丽的营销新概念背后，难以掩盖的

是乏善可陈的应用，概念很快过时，让好

些企业为之投入的巨资白白打了水漂。从

这个意义上讲，宣传推广微信营销，应客

观务实的判断其生命周期和应用潜力。”

艾瑞咨询移动端网民网络行为监测系

统数据显示，今年2月，微信在App端月

度使用时长达到2.6亿小时，新浪微博达

到1.3亿小时。新浪微博去年全年收入为

6600万美元，微博广告收入占比77%。截

至去年12月，新浪微博注册用户达到5.03

亿。而目前已拥有3亿用户的微信还远远看

不到盈利的前景。

在传出微信收费的消息后，腾讯公司

迅疾予以否认。微信的3亿多中国用户在4

月中旬收到微信团队的留言：“近期在微

博上流传的‘微信要对用户收费’，纯属

有人恶意造谣，请大家不要相信谣言。微

信绝对不会对用户收费。”

然而，宣誓绝不收费的微信怎样才能

实现盈利呢？据张小龙透露，微信团队监

测的数据显示，微信朋友圈每天的发帖量

早已大大超过了微博最鼎盛的时期。程小

永和李国建将微信的“朋友圈”称为中国

版的图片社交应用Instagram。“那么谁

会是下一个国内版的Instagram呢？微信

朋友圈其实是最有希望的一个。”他们写

道。

“微信已经成为移动端的重要入口，

如何在即将成为开放平台的微信上创业，

并形成有价值的商业模式，是我们风险投

资者非常关注的。”达晨创投合伙人赵小

兵表示。

微信的传播基于交友文化

June 2013 43

China’s leaders are laying the groundwork to enact difficult reforms

The trillion-renminbi question

China’s top leaders gathered

together on April 25 for what

state media called a “special

session” on the economy. Led by Com-

munist Party General Secretary Xi Jin-

ping, the seven members of China’s

highest governing body discussed how

the country could ensure continued

steady economic growth and stimulate

domestic consumption. They parted

ways agreeing to boost growth but to

do so carefully, avoiding aggressive

credit and investment growth that

could bring on new financial risks.

These broad platitudes were in line

with earlier remarks by top leaders, but

there was a renewed sense of urgency

following the release of disappointing

economic data for the first quarter.

While GDP expanded only 7.7% in the

quarter, new credit was higher than

expected. That indicated the country

was earning less GDP bang for its stim-

ulus buck, in the words of China strat-

egist Patrick Chovanec.

Some people attributed slower

growth in the first quarter to the Chi-

nese government’s efforts to rebalance

the economy – defined as increasing

levels of consumption, lowering invest-

ment in real estate and accelerating

growth in the service sector. “We need

to sacrifice short-term growth for the

purposes of reforms and structural

adjustments,” central bank governor

Zhou Xiaochuang said on April 20.

But a closer look showed that was

not the case. The outlook for Chinese

economic rebalancing actually wors-

ened in the first quarter relative to the

first half of 2012, Nicholas Borst, a fel-

low at the Peterson Institute for Inter-

national Economics in Washington,

DC, wrote in a recent blog.

Last October, Borst and his col-

leagues identified five main indicators

that they track to determine whether

the Chinese economy is rebalancing:

disposable income, real bank depos-

it rates, residential real estate invest-

ment, loans to small businesses and the

growth speed of the service sector.

In the first quarter, two of the five

indicators received negative marks:

Urban disposable income grew slower

than GDP, and residential real estate

investment grew rapidly in the first

quarter of this year, both signs of an

increasingly negative economic pic-

ture. “One should not put too much

stock in the data from any one quarter,

but it is hard to make the argument

that the Chinese economy is rebalanc-

COVER STORY

June 201344

ing quickly,” Borst wrote.

Courage of convictionsIt’s clearly a bad sign that the govern-

ment hasn’t begun rebalancing the

economy, despite much talk of its

necessity. But it’s still too early to con-

demn them for lack of effort.

Xi and his second-in-command,

Premier Li Keqiang, took up the top

government posts in March, too late

to influence the course of first-quarter

growth. These men clearly understand

that their economic model is losing

steam, and they are better positioned

than their predecessors to make the

necessary changes.

Xi also remarked at the Boao

Forum in Hainan province in early

April that China is looking to rein in

growth to sustainable levels and bal-

ance economic prosperity with other

issues such as environmental protec-

tion. And in his first press conference,

Premier Li invoked “reform” more

than 20 times. Li has repeatedly reiter-

ated that reform has been China’s big-

gest dividend, writes Damien Ma, a fel-

low at The Paulson Institute in Chica-

go. “With many arguing inside China

that the reform momentum has been

sapped, the new leadership is clearly

intent on reinvigorating it,” Ma wrote.

To reduce the role of investment in

the economy and empower consumers,

Xi and his cohorts must trim back state

monopolies and allow market forces

to distribute capital to the parts of the

economy where it can be used most

efficiently, rather than to the parts of

the economy that are the best con-

nected.

Cutting powerful vested interests

off from cheap sources of capital will

be a painful process. But most Chi-

nese say Xi has the political courage

and capital to pull off such a dramat-

ic change. Xi has launched an ambi-

tious corruption crackdown, and he

is leading the government in a quiet

and sustained effort to iron out local

government debt problems and bring

a ballooning shadow banking sector

and wealth management products into

the fold.

In addition, Xi looks more able

than his predecessor to bring certain

interest groups into line, such as state-

owned enterprises. Political analysts

say that the reduction this year of the

Politburo Standing Committee from

nine to seven members and the shift

from a roughly 50-50 split between

factions to a committee dominated

by Xi’s princeling party will give him

greater ability to enact more contro-

versial reforms.

China does have sustainable sourc-

es of growth to tap, but the govern-

ment must have political courage to

scale back its controls on the economy.

These reforms will include embracing

creative destruction and allowing inef-

ficient businesses to fail, argues Cho-

vanec, the China strategist.

In a speech in Shanghai last August,

Chovanec pointed out that the main

driver of China’s growth since Reform

and Opening in the late 1970s was not

central policies, but the government

merely getting out of people’s way –

allowing them to sell their extra pro-

duce, start a small business or own

their own property.

Liberalizing still-tightly control-

led portions of China’s economy can

bring similar dividends in the future.

“There’s a huge amount of untapped

potential in the Chinese economy

if there is the courage to adapt and

embrace it,” Chovanec said.

This will be an uncomfortable

process, but there is no other good

option. The rhetoric of China’s top

brass shows they understand this, and

they are trying to prepare their col-

leagues for the transition. Premier Li

said much the same thing in a brief-

ing at the Great Hall of the People in

March. “It’s about cutting power, it’s

a self-imposed revolution,” he said. “It

will be very painful and even feel like

cutting one’s wrist.”

June 2013 45

汽车后市场嬗变想要成功实现转型并不容易文 | 胡莹 林瑜瑶

汽车后市场巨大的潜在机会和混乱的

早期发展格局让许多人看到了商

机。在发达国家，汽车售后服务市场是整

个汽车产业链中最稳定的利润来源，约占

总利润的60%至70%，而中国目前的汽车

后市场比重不到30%。汽车供应量持续增

长，竞争日趋激烈，新车销售利润将不断

缩水。而利润丰厚的汽车后市场已成为潜

力十足的蓝海，市场格局将发生翻天覆地

的变化。

现状与转型与欧美眼里的代步工具不同，由于

尚未全面普及（上海市仅20%家庭拥有私

家车），汽车在许多中国人眼中仍然是身

份与地位的象征，豪车更是人们炫耀的资

本。因此大多数车主并不在意养车成本，

汽车维修保养基本在4S店内完成。随着家

用轿车普及和车主低龄化，家庭对于养车

成本越来越敏感，超过3年保修期的车主越

来越关注汽车后市场的价格和质量。

汽车后市场企业主要包括制造业、

流通企业和维修企业，其中维修企业主

要分为两大部分，一是4S店，二是路边

店。4S店业务来源除了保修和事故车业务

外，就是经济实力相对雄厚的“奢侈品”

拥有者的替换件和保养业务。而路边店业

务主要来自经济实力差的低端消费者，其

替换件主要来自于汽配城。因此，后市场

隐约呈现出一种简单的极端化局势，处于

中间过渡阶段的企业规模相对较少。同

时，美车饰、黄帽子、美国NAPA（全国

汽车配件联盟）和Autozone等相对规范的

品牌汽车后市场流通企业受到市场挤压，

经营大多出现水土不服。

中国与美国汽车后流通企业的区别

非常明显。中国汽车后市场流通企业多以

提供美容装饰件为主，而以维修保养件为

封面故事

辅。而美国汽车维修配件占据商场的重要

柜台。美国人动手修理自己的代步工具极

为平常，相形之下，中国人动手拆奢侈的

宝贝，似乎有些不可思议。汽车流通业的

业态相对单一。

同样不难理解汽车后市场制造企业格

局。由于维修和流通企业都没有形成大规

模的连锁，无论是质量控制能力还是动力

都十分不足。因此，汽车后市场制造企业

也呈现出两极分化的格局。受控于主机厂

的原厂件，在汽车行业近乎严苛的质量要

求下，原厂件的质量水平相对较高；而非

原厂件产品质量诚信成为严峻问题。

中国社会科学院《2012-2013中国

汽车社会蓝皮书》预测，5年后中国家庭

汽车拥有量将达40辆/百户，10年左右将

达到或接近60辆/百户。当汽车成为大众消

费品后，必然会推动汽车后市场的根本变

化。而这一市场的转型，既带有中国一般

产业转型的特征，又多了一些独特性。维

修企业的发展将与商业模式创新、技术创

新和质量改善交织在一起；而难以避免的

转型还包括电子商务时代线上业务对线下

模式的冲击。

品牌与电商商业模式创新与连锁企业涌现。目

前，后市场最突出的质量问题是假冒伪劣

产品，体现在制造、流通和维修等方方面

面。由于中国汽车独立后市场中配件制造

企业整体质量管理能力偏低，尽管汽配城

已经完成了从路边店向有形市场转型，却

仍然处于无序管理状态中，虽然4S店能够

保证质量，但是价格居高不下，而路边店

还处于集贸市场阶段。因此，汽车后市场

可以说是经营无序，假冒伪劣、劣币逐良

币的现象屡见不鲜。

鉴于当前汽车后市场鱼龙混杂问题解

决的关键在于缺乏大体量的龙头企业，伴

随着汽车后市场规模的攀升，势必会出现

一些品牌化的连锁企业，借品牌的渗透力

重塑后市场竞争生态。同时，连锁模式的

优势意味着规模采购和统一配送，为加盟

企业减少因熟悉市场环境、搜索政策法规

等造成的时间与资金成本等，马太效应适

用于汽车后市场行业。当扩张的达到了企

业竞争的边界之后，成功的企业进入殊死

搏杀之中，在填满后市场业态的同时，也

会大量挤掉落后者。“快鱼吃慢鱼”既适

用于曾经的白色家电行业，同样适用于发

展初期的汽车后市场业。

尽管业内的绝大多数人都对后市场连

锁大品牌的诞生抱有积极乐观的态度，也

不乏企业进行深度尝试，美国汽车售后服

务著名品牌NAPA几进几出中国正是这种

尝试的结果。然而，由于汽车后市场体量

的增长是缓慢的过程，中国汽车制造质量

的提升也如是。在供需双方信息高度不对

称的情况下，企业确实能够通过品牌获得

消费者的信赖，但企业品牌的建立却又以

消费者群体扩大和消费文化变化为前提，

一个死循环自此诞生。打破死循环的药方

在于商业模式创新。当年，NAPA走出汽

车后市场质量诚信陷阱，正是凭借高度一

体化的商业模式。

信息技术与电子商务的兴起。当今社

会已进入了高速发展的通讯时代，线下到

线上购买方式的转变正日益渗透到每一个

行业。美国汽车后市场中，电子商务的分

量也在日益加大。在中国，虽然出于专业

服务需求和购物习惯等原因，传统店铺模

式仍然占据主导地位，但电子商务模式发

展势头强劲。

与传统购物模式有所不同，当进场、

浏览、购买、支付和物流等活动都以网络

为载体进行之时，企业可以用低廉的成本

June 201346

记录和反馈交易。这种实时更新的数据库

正日益构成企业科学决策的基础，也能在

很大程度上解决当前汽车后市场鱼目混珠

的乱象。

网络交易积累形成区域汽车品牌数据

库不但可以让企业降低库存，还能与前市

场链接起来，一起通过数据挖掘发现汽车

整体改善的空间，实现互利共赢。在所谓

的“大数据”时代，数据堪比石油，深度

的数据挖掘将给企业带来许多意想不到的

收获。鉴于汽车后市场电子商务的巨大价

值空间，汽车后市场线上企业势必能找到

一席之地。

分享与信任汽车后市场属于极度复杂而多变的行

业。尽管方向已相当清晰，要成功实现转

型并不容易。

战略联盟与价值链延伸。中国汽车后

市场可谓百废待兴，既无可供依赖的行业

标准，又无足够高质量的制造企业，更无

能够引导行业竞争生态的大型连锁企业，

加上尚不成熟的消费者群体。克服困难，

固然需要创新和创业精神，但想凭借一方

的力量重塑后市场环境，难度可想而知。

而战略联盟可以整合多方的优势资源，

实现灵活与规模共存，如NAPA+GPC模

式。市场发展成熟后，将会出现更为独立

的竞争业态，如Pepboy模式或Worldpac

模式。前者是汽车零售界的沃尔玛，后者

是多品牌原厂件集成服务商。电子商务服

务企业也不例外，以汽车生活服务平台车

蚂蚁为例子，在与上百家汽车服务机构进

行捆绑式合作的基础上，车蚂蚁整合了商

家信息，为客户提供平台分享体验。

相比之下，在既有业务基础上进行价

值链延伸，则以让企业兼具资金基础和联

盟的部分优势。如上汽集团继以“安吉物

流”成功入驻汽车物流后，又试图涉水汽

车后市场电子商务。众多汽车品牌经销商

也跃跃欲试，以图更大发展。

坚守阵地与适时推动。从发达国家汽

车后市场业态演进的规律来看，在市场成

熟的不同阶段，会诞生大相径庭的企业业

态。如市场发展初期，由于标准匮乏、诚

信问题严峻、企业规模小，纵向联合的高

度一体化能够最大化企业所提供的产品和

服务价值。而随着市场越来越成熟，仅通

过配送体系降低成本已经足以形成企业的

核心竞争力，高度一体化下巨大的管理成

本反而成为累赘。因而，分析市场环境中

存在的问题，适时推动企业竞争模式向新

的方向演进，对于仍然处于转型初期的汽

车后市场是实现可持续发展的关键。

在这个过程中，汽车维修、配件企业

可以不断寻求创新。如针对司机与乘客的

健康、实用的功能性产品在市场上出现，

环保类产品和人性化的宠物用品等精细服

务。又如，充分利用与客户交流的时间创

造价值，美国的汽修连锁店Five Star在实

际中采用了这种模式，更换机油只需一半

市场价，同时提供免费诊断服务，逐渐赢

得顾客的信任。这恰恰是汽修业最为关键

的成功要素，这种模式或许可以借鉴。

（作者分别来自上海机动车检测中心和上

海大学悉尼工商学院）

大多数汽车维修保养都在4S店内完成

June 2013 47

REPORT

Investors and officials are tripping up China’s new policy for cooling the property market

Bringing down the house

Making a house into a home

is difficult. Especially

when you’re a country

trying to do it for the bulk of your

housing stock. China has tried to curb

investment purchasing to bring down

prices for those buying a first home

but has found that’s not so easy.

In the latest wave of measures to

deter speculative buying, the central

government enacted a 20% capital-

gains tax on the sales of second homes

on April 1. It also raised the required

down payment for second homes from

60% to 70% and increased mortgage

rates to from 1.1% to 1.3%, although

these policies have been implemented

differently across the country.

Home prices have dodged the

effects of the policies thus far. Pric-

es actually climbed the fastest in 18

months in April. They rose 5.34%

higher year-on-year last month.

The latest policies have at least

slowed property sales, much to the

relief of some policymakers. The trans-

action volume of home sales fell 13%

month-on-month in April, a sign that

cooling tactics are starting to work.

Early this month, Moody’s Inves-

tors Services predicted sales and pric-

es would slow for the full year 2013.

However, predictions for what the

market will look like six months from

now are mixed.

Trickle downThe decrease in sales is part of the

intended effect, but the housing con-

trols have missed the the government’s

main target – lower home prices for

first-time buyers and less speculative

investment into the sector. Lower sales

should eventually result in lower pric-

es, although that will take time.

In fact, the recent measures have

likely boosted prices in some segments

of the market. Some sellers might have

raised the price on the property to

make up the cost of paying the 20%

tax, which “may increase prices over a

short period of time,” said James Mac-

donald, head of research at property

firm Savills China.

Investors and local officials are also

often unwilling to sell at a lower price,

even if it greatly reduces their chance

of selling.

Soon after the new policies were

announced, property developer Soho

China CEO Zhang Xin told The

Wall Street Journal that they would

not effectively root out China’s real

estate problems. Investors own large

amounts of property and, because

China has very limited taxes on hous-

ing, hold it at nearly no cost. Zhang

said that without annual property

taxes, investors can continue to lock

up housing supply and drive prices up.

Officials in Chinese cities also have

an interest in keeping prices high. The

performance and promotion prospects

of local cadres is heavily influenced

by the amount of funds they raise for

June 201348

development projects, according to a

Standard Chartered report issued in

April. By keeping prices high, they

make more money on land sales, a

major means of raising revenue. “The

more money you raise from selling

land, the more you have to spend on

big infrastructure projects and the big-

ger the impression you make on your

superiors,” the report said.

Limbering upDespite the backward incentives for

local cadres, some places appear to

have gone further than others to enact

the new policy. Unlike cooling meas-

ures in the past, local officials may

have been allowed to implement the

new policy according to the tempera-

ture of the local market, said Macdon-

ald at Savills.

A varied rollout of the measures

could have a positive effect because

property markets within China vary

greatly. Macdonald noted that any

flexibility in the policy was unofficial.

Variations are evident a month and

a half after the controls were official-

ly enacted. Beijing was the only city

to seriously implement the 20% cap-

ital-gains tax. Sales volumes of new

homes still increased there, however.

In Guangzhou, stronger controls on

mortgages led to a reported 50% slow-

down in sales.

Officials in second-tier cities have

had a much lighter touch, according

to Johnson Hu, a property analyst at

investment bank CIMB Group. Sales

slowed by about 10% in second-tier

cities in April, less than expected,

which could actually indicate that local

governments have too much leeway.

“That’s a very small percentage of

decline, even for the first month of

policy tightening,” Hu said. “If the

local governments don’t do anything,

I foresee the sales volume rebounding,

and that will bring up the home price

in the future.”

The next moveHu was not optimistic that the latest

measures would be enough to keep

increases in property price at an

acceptable level, ideally matching the

rate of GDP growth. Housing is often

deemed unaffordable when prices

climb faster than GDP or personal dis-

posable income. Annual GDP is rising

in the single digits yet housing prices

climbed by more than 40% year-on-

year in the first two months of 2013.

Based on current trends, which

included the launch of more real estate

projects in the next few months, Hu

predicts a rebound in property sales

later this year, which would likely

require the government to step in once

again with a new set of controls.

Macdonald didn’t rule out the pos-

sibility of new property measures this

year, but he said the government will

be conservative in issuing further pol-

icy. While aiming to slow sales and

prices, authorities do not want to over-

shoot and cause a major market drop.

But if the more flexible policies

are not enough to bring prices within

reach of first-time home buyers, the

government will need to consider

harder-hitting measures.

Despite the widespread resistance

to an annual property tax, specula-

tors holding large amounts of property

should be forced to pay out when they

horde real estate. Taxes may be the

only effective deterrent to investors.

In the longer term, revising the

way that local cadre performance is

assessed could bring prices down. Rais-

ing money off land sales shouldn't be

the key to impressing senior officials.

However prices are ultimately

deflated, officials will need to set their

targets low enough to make housing

affordable for as many first-time buy-

ers in the market as possible. With a

growing wealth gap in China, the met-

rics used to determine affordability

could be ineffective. GDP growth or

per capita disposable income is skewed

by the wealth disparity and, if used to

set prices, will exclude many from the

housing market.

Transition is tough. Lower sales and

prices will translate into lower eco-

nomic growth. More cooling measures

will not make friends in Beijing, where

vested interests hold large quantities

of apartments and villas. But getting

homes out of speculators' hands and

opening them for families should be

the government's top priority.

June 2013 49

REPORT

China’s invitation to the Arctic will help keep the country’s thirst for resources in check

Breaking the ice

When the Arctic Council,

a body of eight Arctic

states, met in May to dis-

cuss underwater fiber optics, China was

surely in the room. The council granted

China – thousands of miles from the

North Pole – a permanent observer seat

on the council last month, a status the

country has long sought out.

The wide coverage of China’s gran-

diose-sounding ascendance to the

council underplayed that it is essential-

ly a toothless organization. The Arctic

Council doesn’t make policy decisions

on the region, nor does observer status

allow China to vote on the body’s agen-

da. When it comes to resource deals in

a region estimated to hold 30% of the

world’s undiscovered gas, the council

will have little sway in keeping players

such as China out. China’s footprint is

already in the snow.

Its dealings with Greenland, still

technically part of Denmark, are a good

example of its inroads in the region.

The Copenhagen Post last year reported

that China would invest US$225.5 in

airports and shipping infrastructure in

Greenland’s capital. EU Commission

officials have also noted that China is

conducting mining feasibility studies

on the mostly barren land mass.

China and Iceland signed a free-

trade agreement last month, but Chi-

na’s interest there go beyond trade.

Damien Degeorges, a researcher at the

University of Greenland, told China

Economic Review late last year that

the island-state “is seen by some as a

future hub for Chinese shipping activ-

ity in the region.”

China’s trip through the Arctic Sea

last year would support that suspi-

cion. Last summer, Chinese icebreak-

ing “Snow Dragon” sailed north from

China, around Russia to an Icelandic

port and back again. Other countries

in the region that are more wary of

China, such as Norway and Russia,

watched carefully as the ship made its

way through the icebergs.

With little other recourse for

nations that are nervous about China’s

activity in the region, the Arctic Coun-

cil’s mantra might as well be “If you

can’t beat them, have them join you.”

Although the council has little power

to act, it can still play a role in foster-

ing peaceful relations. The council is

the primary forum for communication

and cooperation on the preservation

of the Arctic environment. If problems

or abuses arise during China’s Arctic

expeditions, the council will be the

arena in which to engage the country.

Participation on the council will also

foster a much-needed understanding

between interested nations like China

and the Arctic countries, said Lawson

Brigham, a governor at the American

Polar Society and a senior fellow at the

Institute of the North in Anchorage,

Alaska, in an interview with China

Economic Review late last year.

Despite the urge to shut China out

(something Norwegian officials report-

edly threatened), coming face to face

with China on environmental issues

will be the most effective way of dealing

with the country that – at least on its

home turf – has shown little regard for

the state of its natural environment.

China is in the Arctic, with or with-

out welcome. Now it’s up to the Arctic

Council’s members to pressure China

to respect the environment. Facing off

with China in a meeting room should

yield more peaceful results than a con-

frontation on the ice.

June 201350

积极信号中国与挪威的经贸关系正在逐步加深

今年5月上旬，国内领先的支线船舶

出口公司舜天船舶宣布与国内另外

两家公司一起，与挪威宝澳海洋平台供应

船舶公司签订合同，为其建造并出售2艘多

功能海洋平台供应船，合同金额约9亿元人

民币。5月21日，挪威船级社（DNV）披

露，已在中国成立专门的海工专家组，以

顺应中国海洋工程行业的迅速发展，支持

中国船东、船厂和专业设计院在海工领域

的技术需要。

此前，中国如愿以偿成为北极理事

会正式观察员，而挪威早就表达了赞成之

意。未来二三十年，北极地区海冰将有可

能在夏季全部融化，这为利用北极航道通

往北美和欧洲提供了可能，而冰川的自然

资源也极其丰富。诸多迹象显示，世界最

大国家与欧洲最小国家之一的经贸关系正

在日益加深。

2010年底诺贝尔和平奖颁发后的一

段时期，中国与挪威的关系曾一度受挫，

跌入谷底。中方取消了双方高层会议和

政治对话，无限期延迟了自由贸易协定谈

判。一些贸易合作项目也临时终止。挪威

对中国的三文鱼出口量大幅下降。2012年

6月，挪威前首相邦德维克欲入境中国，被

中国驻挪威使馆拒签。在这一摩擦中，中

国受到的经济损失微不足道。挪威统计局

数据显示，2012年挪威与中国的双边贸易

额仅为103.5亿美元。而当年中国的进出

口总额高达3.8万亿美元，对中国而言，中

挪双边贸易额几乎可以忽略不计。

虽然贸易额不大，但中国与挪威的

经贸往来具有很大互补性。近几年，中国

对挪威的投资进展顺利，在挪威的中资机

构包括华为公司、中兴通讯、中海油服公

司、中远北欧有限公司等，分别从事通讯

设备市场推广、海上石油平台、航运等业

务。中国从挪威引进的技术主要涉及水

电、医疗和环保等领域。

挪威与中国在石油领域的合作已有20

多年历史。2008年9月，中海油服有限公

司斥资25亿美元收购挪威著名钻井服务商

AWILCO。2009年，中海油公司与挪威

国家石油公司在墨西哥湾四个区块达成合

作。2010年，中国中化集团以30.7亿美元

收购挪威国家石油公司巴西Peregrino项

目40%权益，此后又与挪威国家石油公司

签署战略合作备忘录。

除了传统产业领域，双方在金融领域

的合作也取得一定进展。今年3月，中国

建设银行与卡塔尔、挪威和阿塞拜疆三国

主权财富基金共同认购了俄罗斯外贸银行

（VTB）55%新增股权。

挪威对中国的直接投资始于1983

年，项目主要集中于石油化工、冶金、船

舶设备、绿色能源、医药、造纸、渔业

等。挪威国家石油公司、挪威船级社等企

业在中国开设了工厂或分公司。

挪威的财富基金正将投资方向从欧洲

转向亚洲和新兴市场，以寻求更高利润。

今年4月底，全球最大投资机构之一的挪威

June 201352

焦点 挪威

More interactions are expected between Norway and China as Arctic ice melts

Light of North

May 15 was a big Arctic

day for China, the day it

won permanent observ-

er status in the Arctic Council after

a seven-year wait. It was also a day

that could help Norway and China

to improve their relationship, given

Norway’s support for China’s applica-

tion.

China and Norway may be opposi-

ties in geography and scale, but

Norway was one of the first western

nations to recognize the People’s

Republic of China after 1949, and also

the second European country to grant

China market economy status.

Norway has only 5 million peo-

ple, while China has its famous total

population of over 1.3 billion, but in

terms of GDP per capita their roles

are reversed. Statistics from the World

Bank indicate that China’s GDP per

capita was USD 5,445 in 2011, in 88th

position on the global table while

Norway had GDP per capita of USD

98,081, ranking 3rd worldwide.

Norway has the potential to be role

model for China in many areas. Its

expertise in terms of environmental-

ly-friendly products and research and

energy could be leveraged in various

ways by China, beset by environmen-

tal and energy issues.

China as the world’s major export-

er of relatively cheap products has

the advantage of a huge reservoir of

human resources, available for use by

Norwegian manufacturers, and con-

sumer markets with huge potential.

As the Arctic sea ice, which pre-

viously separated the two countries,

melts, the economic future of Nor-

way and China will be fundamentally

reshaped. The complementary aspects

of these two countries may trigger

more interaction and create signifi-

cant opportunities for further coop-

eration.

主权财富基金公开要求中国向国外投资者

开放国内市场，并称打算向中国投资数十

亿美元。该主权财富基金主管称，人民币

债券离岸市场相当小，而且流动性不大；

在岸市场虽然很大，但外资却无法参与。

挪威市场还受惠于中国消费能力的提

高。中国游客海外购物已渐成时尚。挪威

最大免税公司Global Blue Norway数据显

示，中国游客2012年在挪威购买的免税商

品数额比上年增长40%，这两年中国游客

购买的免税商品总额达6500万克朗（约合

7150万人民币）。

中国与挪威的自由贸易区谈判已中断

两年多，但最近的一些动向释放出双边关

系有望改善的积极信号。人们有理由相信

双边自由贸易区谈判即将梅开二度，两国

的经贸合作也会全面开花。

June 2013 53

SPOTLIGHT NOR WAY

新突破 新愿景加入北极理事会将为中挪的后续合作奠定扎实基础

在环保呼声渐高的大背景下，中国当

选为北极理事会观察员，这一新身

份将为中国以及一贯对其支持的挪威带来

怎样的积极影响？为此本刊采访到挪威驻

华公使尼尔斯（Nils Martin Gunneng）

先生，他与我们详细探讨了两国未来合作

关系的走向。

问：挪威对中国获得北极理事会正式

观察员地位有何看法？

答：我认为中国及其他诸国获得观察

员地位一事是对北极理事会重要地位的肯

定，确立了其作为国际论坛在探讨北极事

务方面所起的作用。挪威外相用“重要突

破”四个字来形容他对中国成功加入理事

会的看法。我们对于中国能加入进来感到

由衷的高兴，这为双方后续合作提供了便

利。

问：中挪两国能以何种方式就北极地

区的发展进行合作？

答：我认为可能有很多种。首先是

科学研究领域，其次是政治合作与商业合

作。目前需要将三者有机的结合才能进

一步在北极地区展开合作。就科学研究而

言，由于中国及其他亚洲国家拥有的相关

专业技术对北极地区的发展甚为关键，很

多挑战都可以通过国家或机构之间的紧

密合作来得到解决，涉及的研究可以是

气候变化，以及冰雪、大气、生物学和

地质学。另外还有很多问题有待进一步研

究。就政治合作而言，我们之前与中国有

过两轮北极对话，目的在于制定相关的区

域议题，了解我们各国在北极地区所处的

位置，了解挪威作为主要参与国所处的位

置，以加深对彼此看法的了解。

问：在北极地区未来经济发展过程中

国应扮演怎样的角色？

答：最重要的问题在于自然资源和储

备丰富的北极地区有着较为脆弱的生态系

统。所以展开经济活动时我们须在对资源

进行责任管理和环境保护之间求取平衡。

这是每个北极理事会员都需要了解的，也

是所有人都必须承担的责任。

问：挪威面向中国的海鲜出口市场状

况如何？

答：我们直接将海鲜运送到中国消

费者手中，同时还提供各类原材料加工服

务，以将海产品从中国再运送到其他市

场。中国目前是挪威第五大海鲜市场，去

年挪威共计向中国出口了1.56亿吨海鲜。

问：挪威能为中国带来哪些船舶技术

支持？

答：就船舶业而言，挪威能提供的技

术支持种类有很多，涉及的领域包括发动

机、渔泵系统、表面涂层、供暖系统等。

这些技术都具有环保、高效及节能的特

点。

问：挪威在近海油气开发领域有哪些

技术优势可供中国利用？两国在该领域开

展了哪些合作？

答：挪威在近海油气技术领域一直处

于领先地位。覆盖的油气开发领域范围很

广，从近海供应船和钻机设计、导航、定

位系统到大型项目管理。而挪威国家石油

公司（Statoil）在这一领域始终走在世界

前列，另外挪威还有一些小企业也提供相

关的高性能工程设备。

中挪两国已在这一领域展开了诸多合

作。一些挪威船东正在中国建造近海供应

船和钻机，所采用的设计和大型部件来自

挪威，但其他资源则由中国提供。同时还

有一些挪威企业为中国公司提供设计方案

和设备。这一领域的合作前景较为广阔。

另外还有很多中国企业在挪威投资，如中

海油田服务股份有限公司数年前收购了挪

威的Awilco，后者是深海钻机领域的佼佼

者。中海油田公司借此交易一举成为欧洲

油气市场的主导企业之一。

问：海运行业有关气体排放的规定愈

发严格，挪威将怎样协助中国达到类似标

准？

答：为应对不断增长的环保需求，挪

威在造船和船舶设备领域已开发出了一系

列广泛的技术解决方案。我们制定的若干

海上运输规定严格程度在全世界居首，这

也使得挪威企业在相关领域一直处于领先

地位。另外，我需要特别强调的一个方面

是挪威在开发液化天然气装置作为海上运

输燃料系统方面所作的贡献，这一应用已

为环境带来了诸多益处。

问：挪威在保持环境清洁方面有什么

秘诀？

答：首先，挪威制定了强大的环保政

策，对导致污染的企业课以重税，并出台

了一系列举措鼓励企业和个人实施环保。

其次，挪威供电来源98%是可再生能源，

其中96%属于水力发电。第三，我们在脆

弱的生态系统和经济活动间求取平衡。

尼尔斯先生

June 201354

焦点 挪威

Permanent observer status for China on the Arctic Council will be the basis for more and better cooperation in the Arctic, says Nils Martin Gunneng, Norway’s deputy ambassador to China

Renewable relations

As“Go Green” ini t ia t ives

gain traction, China has the

opportunity to renew its com-

mitment to international and environ-

mental organizations. That could bring

further cooperation with Norway, a

country renowned for its environmen-

tal-friendly technologies and policies.

Nils Martin Gunneng, deputy chief of

mission at the Norwegian Embassy in

Beijing, spoke to China Economic

Review on the state of Sino-Norwe-

gian relations.

In terms of the shipping indus-try, what role can Norway play in assisting China to meet ever-tightening emission regulations? Increased environmental awareness

and international environmental con-

ventions have resulted in an increasing

demand for environmentally-friendly

solutions, in line with Norway’s inter-

national and environmental com-

mitment and the growing market for

maritime environmental technology.

Our shipbuilding and ship equipment

industry has developed a number of

technological solutions to meet the

increasing demand for environmen-

tally-friendly approaches. We have

formulated some of the most strin-

gent regulations in the world for our

coastal transport in Norway. That

has put Norwegian companies in the

forefront of the industry - developing

and adopting solutions for cleaning

up maritime transport. One thing I

would mention particularly is Nor-

way’s ability to contribute liquefied

natural gas (LNG) fuel systems, the

whole machinery operating on LNG

as a maritime fuel for ships, which has

many environmental gains.

What is the state of the seafood trade between Norway and China?When it comes to seafood exports, we

deliver seafood directly to consumers

in China and also provide raw mate-

rial for processing and re-export from

China to other markets. China is now

Norway’s fifth largest market for sea-

food. In 2012, we exported a total of

156,000 tons of Norwegian seafood to

China.

What know-how does Norway have that it could provide to China in the maritime segment?When it comes to the maritime indus-

try, there is an enormous amount that

Norway could provide – motors and

engines, fishing pump systems, surface

coatings, heating systems – all of them

are very clean, effective and energy sav-

ing.

What offshore oil and gas tech-nology does Norway have that China could utilize?As you know, we are a leading nation

when it comes to offshore oil and gas

technology. We are engaged in eve-

rything from offshore supply vessels

and rig design, navigation, position-

June 2013 55

SPOTLIGHT NOR WAY

ing systems and large project man-

agement. Statoil is a world leader in

offshore oil and gas technology and a

multitude of small Norwegian compa-

nies provide high performance engi-

neering equipment in this sector.

What form might the coopera-tion take within offshore oil and gas sector?There are already considerable coop-

eration between Norway and China.

Norwegian owners are building off-

shore supply vessel and rigs in China,

using often Norwegian design and

large component of Norwegian equip-

ment and then Chinese firms build

the ship. Norwegian companies are

also providing designer equipment to

Chinese companies, building China’s

first indigenous deepwater drilling rig

with correspondent dynamic position-

ing system, drilling equipment that fits

the market.

So this is obviously field for coop-

eration that is already well-developed.

Also, there are a lot of Chinese com-

panies looking to invest in Norway.

One is China Oilfield Services Lim-

ited (COSL) which some years ago

bought a Norwegian company called

Awilco, which is a very big company

when it comes to deep-sea drilling rigs.

COSL is actually now a major player in

Europe because of that purchase.

What role should China play in shaping the economic future of the Arctic?The Arctic is an area with large depos-

its and natural resources as well as vul-

nerable eco-systems. When it comes

to economic activity, we will have to

strike a balance between responsible

resource management and environ-

mental concerns. Every player in the

Arctic will have to be aware of this and

that is the role we all should play –

striking that balance between respon-

sible resource management and envi-

ronmental concerns.

In what way can China and Norway work together for Arctic development?I think there are many possibilities.

Scientific research comes first, then

political cooperation and commer-

cial cooperation. You need all three

in order to be successful in the Arc-

tic. Scientifically, many challenges can

be addressed through close research

cooperation between institutes and

states. China and other Asian countries

have technology expertise that is highly

relevant and valuable for the devel-

opment of the Arctic. Research into

climate change for instance, and also

snow and ice, atmosphere, biology and

geology. There are a lot of issues that

could be looked into. When it comes

to political cooperation, we previously

have held two rounds of High North

dialogues with China. This is in order

to shape the agenda of the Arctic and

to increase understanding of our coun-

tries’ position in the Arctic and the

position of ourselves as a major player

and get understanding for our views in

the Arctic.

What is Norway’s view on China gaining observer status at Arctic Council?I think the granting of observer status

to China and other countries confirms

the Arctic Council’s key position as an

international forum for discussion on

Arctic issues. And you know the Nor-

wegian foreign minister described the

situation as “a major breakthrough”.

So we are thrilled to have China as

a permanent observer in the Arctic

Council to further strengthen coopera-

tion with China.

Norway is renowned for its en-ergy sustainability and envi-ronmentally-friendly measures. What is the secret of Norway’s clean environment? I think it comes from several things.

First, Norway has a strong environ-

mental regulatory policy. We have

placed high taxes on polluting activ-

ity. We have in place strong incen-

tives for companies and individuals to

go green, to clean up their acts. And

secondly, Norway has a power sector

that is around 98% renewable energy,

96% percent of that being hydropower,

so there’s very little emission coming

from that sector. The third point is

related to what we talked about earlier

with the needs in the Arctic and also

Norway generally to strike that balance

between vulnerable ecosystems and

economic activity.

June 201356

焦点 挪威

更活跃 更开放挪威企业在中国市场的活跃度有待提高

挪威在中国加入北极理事会一事上所

做的努力是两国间关系日益加深的

积极信号，北京咨询公司China Policy挪

威业务经理埃兰德（Erlend Ek）先生如

是说。

他认为，对挪威企业而言中国市场的

吸引力在于，“首先中国的消费群体非常

庞大，挪威企业当然希望能从中获益。另

一方面中国又是最重要的劳力密集型工业

产地，所制造的产品不仅具有成本优势，

质量也有一定保障。所以许多投资人士认

为中国市场充满着各类机遇。”

“挪威企业通常习惯于‘按规矩办

事’，但对华投资通常需要涉及到很多

人、机构以及条规，致使情形变得较为复

杂。若他们能更好地了解自己的同行如何

看待中国各类问题，在与对方进行谈判时

则能更得心应手。”他说道。

“目前有超过200家挪威企业在中

国设立了代表处，包括所有传统型企业和

大型企业。但我可以毫不夸张地说这些企

业在中国市场的活跃度并不如预想的那样

高。其中一个原因是这些企业中的挪威籍

管理人士对中国的语言以及本土化运作的

方式仍不十分了解。但挪威海事企业是例

外，这类机构的活跃度很高。”他补充

道，“但就如何帮助它们了解和利用中国

的政策而言，China Policy还有很多要做。

所以必然会将触角伸至更多挪威企业。”

对中国企业收购、投资北欧企业的行

为，他的看法是：“中国‘走出去’战略

十分令人振奋，其中蕴含无限机遇。挪威

已作好准备，取决于中资企业能否抓住机

遇，冲破限制。一些具有开拓精神的中资

企业在这方面已取得了一定成功。它们将

收购受困企业作为长期战略的组成部分，

并不断摸索经营之道。但若想在挪威市场

真正立足，中国企业需摒弃固有的机构化

管理方式，尝试更多其他经营模式。”

Norway’s efforts to help China gain entry to the Arctic Council as an observer has been noted and provides hope for the bilateral relationship, says Erlend Ek

Hands across the ice

During the past few years,

relations between China and

Norway have passed through

various temperatures from warm to

freezing. But there are several endur-

ing areas of mutual interest between

the two countries particularly in terms

of energy, maritime issues and Arc-

tic cooperation. China Economic

Review spoke to Mr. Erlend Ek, Nor-

way country manager for China Policy,

a Beijing-based research and consult-

ing agency serving a variety of organi-

zations including MNCs, funds, gov-

ernments, research organizations, UN

agencies, foundations and NGOs.

What is the appeal of the Chinese market to Norwegian

investors? And what are Nor-wegian enterprises aiming for when they look to invest in China?China is firstly a huge consumer mar-

ket and the Norwegians would like a

piece of the growing cake. But China is

also the most important manufacturer

of low-cost and reliable goods. Many

see China as the land of opportunities.

Norwegians are used to following the

rules, but investing in China always

involves many people, organizations

and regulations, which can make the

reality very complex. If they under-

stand how their counterparts view

China’s issues and challenges they are

much better prepared for discussions

with their counterparts.

How actively do you see Norwe-gian companies establish busi-nesses in China? There are now more than 200 Nor-

wegian companies represented in

China, including all the traditional

and large ones. I think it is safe to

say that they are not as active as they

should be. One reason is that still

very few Norwegians in these com-

panies possess sufficient knowledge

of the Chinese language and operat-

ing in the Chinese environment. The

exception is the maritime industry.

They have been impressively active,

but to use a language they under-

stand, we have also much to offer

them in terms of navigating Chinese

policy waters.

June 2013 57

SPOTLIGHT NOR WAY

以市场换创新中挪两国在经贸领域具有一定互补性

挪威船级社（DNV）医疗卫生（中

国）总裁高劲松先生于近日接受

本刊采访，畅谈了对中挪两国经贸关系的

看法。高劲松先后获得复旦大学电子工程

系学士和硕士学位，并曾在挪威商学院担

任讲师和研究员。另外，他还参与编写了

专注探讨中国经济的挪威语书籍“KINAS

ØKONOMI”。

问：在中挪经贸关系中，挪威的最大

优势是什么？中国的优势在哪里？

答：挪威最大的优势在于它与中国有

很多不同。比如美、中是两个大国，但挪

威是小国，或者就像老子所说的是“小国

寡民”。挪威的优势包括创新意识以及对

质量的重视，当然还有一些优势行业，比

如石油、海事等。中国的优势，最明显的

就是市场容量大，另一方面则是中国文化

所体现的较强适应力和灵活性。两国在这

些方面有一定的互补。

问：在双方的经贸往来中，中国最应

该向挪威学习什么？

答：中国在许多方面需要向挪威学

习。首先是创新体系，我们知道从中国制

造到中国创造还有很长的路要走，但是创

造的本质还是创新体系。还有就是人本主

义的价值观。中国人讲天人合一，以人为

本，我在挪威有这方面的亲身经历。只有

将人放在第一位，创造力和生产力才能更

高。最后就是对质量的毫不妥协。

问：挪威对中资企业的收购行为持什

么态度？中国企业希望从中得到什么？

答：我觉得，实际的态度概括来说即

是“开放中有审慎”。中国投资者带来的

不仅是资金，还有中国的市场（渠道）。

对于很多被收购和投资的企业，这点十分

具有诱惑力。但是挪威商界非常注重企业

社会责任，在这方面对中国有一定顾虑。

从中国企业的角度来说，它们进行类似交

易的目的在于以市场之名得技术之实，兼

品牌之利，当然还看中其背后的国际化经

验和人才。

问：在哪些领域，挪威在全球处于领

先地位？

答：从有形的层面来看包括石油钻

井、深海勘探、通讯、铝业以及水电。无

形的则是指可持续发展领域，以及企业社

会责任方面的理念。事实上可持续发展这

个词最早就是由挪威前首相Gro Harlem

Brundtland提出的。

问：你负责的部门在中国开展业务

时，遇到的最大困难是什么？如何解决？

答：主要问题是很多中国人对挪威这个国

家并不了解，甚至不知道它在哪。比较大

的困难在于DNV是一家有着全球价值观的

国际化企业，但在很多方面需要和中国的

本地化运作方式融合。也就是我刚才所谈

到的如何将挪威的价值体系、人本主义、

创新理念与中国市场规模在实际中结合。

在这里我可以内外部各举一例。在一次

DNV内部讨论中，我们提出了5年后在中

国市场占有率达到70%的目标，但一位英

国同事却表示反对，他的看法是如果我们

所占的市场份额太大，就会滋生内部的腐

败和低效率，而这样对中国的医院和市场

是不负责任的。所以不应大到接近垄断，

保持在40%-50%的市场占有率就可以。

从这里你可以看出他的观点与中国的价值

观是相反的。另外，DNV如何与中国的医

院相结合？比方中国的以药养医、大方子

大检查，这也是考验。

对挪威企业而言，我觉得有效的解决

之道并非单方面的妥协，而是寻求平衡。

在深入理解中国市场的同时又不丧失价值

观，力求做到透明。

问：谈谈你所了解的挪威投资人士对

中国市场的看法？

答：有一些投资者持相当热切的态

度，要知道中国的市场非常大。对于450

万人口的国家来说，中国的一切数字都大

到难以想像。举个例子，中国有20000家

医院，但欧盟一共才17000家，美国也才

6000家医院。“数字大到吓人”是挪威人

在形容中国市场时经常讲的一句话。另外

一些挪威投资者认为中国有很多本地化的

运作方式，所以对当地市场的很多做法有

些困惑，但不一定都是负面的。简言之，

挪威投资人认为中国是对冒险家来说最好

的乐园，但随时也有一招致命的危险。

As a Norwegian, what’s your take on Chinese acquisitions of northern European companies?Personally, I find the Chinese ‘going

global’ project exciting. I see a world

of opportunities and hope. Norway is

well prepared for this, so it is up to the

Chinese companies to grasp the oppor-

tunities and manage the constraints.

The first path-breakers have seen some

success in acquiring distressed compa-

nies as part of their long-term strategies.

They are learning from this, but to really

compete in Norway, Chinese companies

need to develop new ways of operating

and break away from following patterns

encoded in their institutional DNA.

Visit China Policy at policycn.com.

June 201358

焦点 挪威

China and Norway are complementary to each other in economic and trade areas, says academic and businessman Jinsong Gao

Innovate like a Norsk

Jinsong Gao is now Director Gen-

eral at DNV Healthcare China, a

Norwegian risk management

provider. Previously, he served as a

researcher and lecturer at the BI Norwe-

gian Business School from 2006 to 2011.

He is also co-author of the book “Chi-

na’s Economy.” He spoke to China

Economic Review about Sino-Norwe-

gian economic and trade relations.

What are China and Norway’s respective advantages in terms of their bilateral economic and trade relations?Norway’s biggest advantage lies in its

difference to China. Both America

and China are big powers, but Nor-

way is a kind of a small nation. Other

advantages of a Nordic country such as

Norway include its systems for inno-

vation, quality control measures and

such areas as oil, gas and maritime

resources. On the other hand, China is

a huge market with a great measure of

flexibility. The two countries are thus

complementary to each other on these

levels.

What are the most important lessons that China can learn from Norway in terms of doing business?China can learn a great deal from Nor-

way. What comes first is the estab-

lishment of systems of innovation.

It is a long way to go for the world’s

second biggest economy from “Made

in China” to “Innovated in China”.

The nature of innovation lies in its

underlying system. Another aspect is

humanism. There is a saying in China

which fits in with the values of our

Norwegian peers: “Integrating human-

ity with nature.” Last but not least,

Norwegian businesses never give in to

demands which may undermine the

quality of products or services.

What is Norway’s perspective re-garding acquisitions by Chinese companies? Actually Norwegian enterprises and

the government are quite cautious

when they look to reach M&A agree-

ments with Chinese counterparts.

What Chinese investors can provide

is not only financial support but also

the huge market, and it is a juicy bonus

for many Norwegian targets. But Nor-

wegian business circles are concerned

about the fulfillment of CSR [Corpo-

rate Social Responsibility], to which

they attach great importance, by Chi-

nese investors. As for Chinese deal-

seekers, they are actually seeking for

technology expertise when expand-

ing their presence in Norway, as well

as brands, international management

experience and talent.

What sectors of the Norwegian economy have been leading the global market?Leading areas include oil drilling, deep

sea exploration, telecommunications,

aluminum and hydropower. In terms

of intangibles, all sustainable segments

and commitment to CSR. Actually,

the word “sustainability” was firstly

proposed by Norway’s former prime

minister Gro Harlem Brundtland.

What opinions do Norwegian investors have about the China market?Some investors are eager to expand

their footprint in China. For a coun-

try like Norway with only 4.5 million

people, all numbers about China are

too big to imagine. For example, there

are 20,000 hospitals in China, but the

number of hospitals for the whole of

the European Union is 17,000. Norwe-

gians always say they are “scared by the

numbers” when it comes to the China

market. Some Norwegian buyers may

be confused about the local practices

of some Chinese companies, which

are not always negative but need to be

clarified. In short, China is heaven for

some Norwegian adventurers but hell

to others.

June 2013 59

SPOTLIGHT NOR WAY

CO

-PU

BLI

SHED

AR

TIC

LE

作为艾克尼斯集团（Ekornes Group）旗

下的子公司，Ekornes ASA是北欧地区

最大的家具生产商，目前已登陆奥斯陆证交所。

该公司拥有艾克尼斯、思特莱斯（Stressless®）

以及Svane®等品牌，其中思特莱斯已成为业内

最具知名度的品牌之一。

Ekornes ASA目前在挪威设有四家生产工厂，

并通过在东京、新加坡和悉尼设立销售点来拓展

在亚洲地区的分销和销售业务。为此Ekornes

Asia总裁Mark Kelsey先生接受了本刊采访，对

公司进驻中国市场的方案进行了详细阐述。

能否谈一谈艾克尼斯对中国家具设计市场发展状

况的看法？在进驻中国市场方面，艾克尼斯拥有

哪些优势，同时面临哪些挑战？

根据我们所做的市场调研，中国家具行业

中高端斜靠椅市场的开发程度相对较低。我们同

时还发现，中国消费者很难将思特莱斯等品牌的

高端斜靠椅与一般的按摩椅区分开来。所以对我

们旗下的思特莱斯品牌而言这块市场的开发潜力

较大。就像公司在其他市场所做的，我们的目标

（以及挑战）即是塑造思特莱斯品牌，同时将斜

靠椅板块作为重点开拓领域。

艾克尼斯设计和产品组合在哪些方面的特点将有

助于公司进驻中国市场？另外您认为中国消费者

目前对产品设计的意识如何？

大部分中国消费者并不真正了解斜靠椅的

功用，所以难以将这类产品与按摩椅区分开来。

从这方面来看我认为他们目前的意识仍不够强。

迅速致富带给人们的一个问题就是休息放松的时

间少了。但当人们真正有机会放松时，思特莱斯

品牌产品将给与其舒适完美的体验，而这一切都

归功于我们产品精良的结构。事实上我们经营这

一市场已有40余年，一直在寻求改良和创新的设

计方案。思特莱斯专利滑动装置可根据动作自动

平衡，无须按钮或手柄进行操控；专利PlusTM构

架系统也具有自动调节功能，对腰背及头部提供

正确的支撑，轻松满足从直坐到平躺等各种姿态

的需求。另外该构架系统还设有睡眠模式，用户

可在平躺小憩前自行调节颈部支撑附件。坐在思

特莱斯品牌椅上的感受无比舒适，可说是世界上

最为舒适的椅子—而这正是我们制胜的法宝。

在经营中国市场时，艾克尼斯如何保护自身设计

和品牌的独有性？

思特莱斯品牌推出的座椅均属于功能性产

品，所以在许多特性方面拥有专利。此外已为公

司的产品品牌和品牌功能注册了商标，同时密切

关注市场动向，以确保专利或商标不受到侵犯。

艾克尼斯目前是欧洲中北部，以及美国家具设计

市场的领导者。您将如何根据中国的美学传统来

设计产品？您是否认为进驻中国市场同样也需要

将设计理念“本地化”？

我们的产品放眼全球整个市场，提供的沙

发或座椅品种齐全，另有各类皮质、皮色以及木

料颜色可供选择。所以无论您置身何处，喜好如

何，都能在思特莱斯提供的产品中找到专属于您

的座椅或沙发。

Ekornes ASA, a subsidiary of Ekornes

Group, is the largest furniture manu-

facturer in the Nordic region and listed

on the Oslo Stock Exchange. The company

owns the brands Ekornes, Stressless and Svane,

of which Stressless has become one of the most

recognized in the industry.

Production currently takes place in four

factories in Norway, while distribution and

sales in the Asia-Pacific region are coordinated

through sales offices in Tokyo, Singapore and

Sydney. Mr. Mark Kelsey, President, Ekornes

Asia, spoke to China Economic Review about

their market entry to China.

How does EKORNES see the furniture design

market developING in China? What are

EKORNES’ major advantages and challenges

in terms of market entry into China?

Our market research indicates that the pre-

mium recliner segment of the furniture market

in China is relatively untapped. At the same

time, we find that in the eyes of consumers,

premium recliners such as Stressless are eas-

ily confused with massage chairs. We see this

relatively green field situation in China as a big

opportunity for Stressless. As we have done in

many other markets, our aim (and challenge)

is to build the Stressless brand and at the same

time establish recliners as a key segment.

What are the key features of EKORNES’

design and product portfolio that will support

its entry into the Chinese market? How would

you describe the current design awareness of

Chinese consumers?

Most Chinese consumers are not aware of

what a recliner has to offer as compared to a

massage chair. So I would say awareness is very

low indeed right now. The downside of rising

wealth and prosperity is that people have less

and less time to relax, but when they finally

do find the time, Stressless offers a haven of

comfort thanks to its internal structure, which

we have refined and redesigned for over 40

years. The Glide System™ allows the chair to

automatically adjust with your every movement

without the fuss of pushing buttons, pulling

levers or twisting knobs. The Plus System™

provides the correct neck and lumbar support

from upright seating to full reclining and every

position in between. The Plus System™ also has

a sleep function which lets you adjust the neck

support to lie flat when you want to nap. It is

incredibly comfortable to sit in – I would say the

most comfortable chair to sit in. This is the key

to Stressless.

How does EKORNES protect its unique design

and brands in China?

Stressless is a functional product and so we

have a number of patents on the features of the

chair. In addition, we have registered trade-

marks for our product brands as well as our

branded functions. We constantly monitor the

market to ensure that none of our patents or

trademarks is infringed upon.

EKORNES currently holds the leading posi-

tion in furniture design in the markets of

North and Central Europe and in the US.

How are you customizing the design to meet

the Chinese aesthetic tradition? Do you see

‘localization’ of the design as being relevant

for the Chinese market?

We develop our products for a global mar-

ket. That is, we offer the widest selection of

recliner models in both chairs and sofas with a

whole range of leather qualities, leather colours

and wood colours to choose from. So no mat-

ter where you live or what your preference is,

you can find your Stressless recliner or sofa.

北京 天津 上海 广州 深圳 杭州 无锡 苏州 常州 南通 宁波 温州 绍兴 厦门 惠洲 佛山泉州 昆明 成都 南宁 长沙 武汉 合肥 济南 青岛 淄博 沈阳 大连 太原 西安 南昌 长春石家庄 唐山 呼和浩特

全国免费服务热线：

400-820-1508

O2O模式：看上去很美多数从国外复制来的O2O项目并不成功文 | 晗军

高德软件于5月10晚间正式宣布获得

阿里巴巴集团2.94亿美元投资，阿

里巴巴将持有高德约28%的股份，成为其

第一大股东，阿里巴巴董事局执行副主席

蔡崇信和阿里巴巴无线事业部总裁吴泳铭

将担任高德公司董事。这是继阿里巴巴增

持UC股份、入股新浪微博之后在移动互联

网领域相关的又一重要战略投资。

高德软件是国内导航电子地图供应商

和位置服务提供商；业务范围覆盖车载导

航、便携式导航、互联网位置服务、无线

位置服务、航空摄影测量以及政府和企业

应用等领域。阿里巴巴此举的目的在于全

面布局O2O领域。

“从阿里巴巴早期在O2O领域的投资

并购来看，本地消费电子商务市场一直是

阿里巴巴的重要战略布局，从收购口碑网

到投资美团及丁丁网，虽然尚没有较大起

色，但无疑阿里巴巴看到了未来O2O的重

要发展方向，较早为进军本地消费电子商

务市场做了准备。”艾瑞咨询分析师王影

写道，“对高德来说，借助阿里巴巴的力

量，能使高德在移动互联网领域有更大的

发展空间；对阿里巴巴来说，通过这次投

资去占据移动地图领域的重要地位，不管

是与百度地图竞争还是布局O2O都是很划

算的投资。”

据艾瑞咨询数据显示，2012年中国

移动地图和导航市场用户规模为2.5亿人。

王影认为，伴随智能终端的不断普及，用

户对移动地图和导航应用具有显著的刚性

需求，成为智能手机的必备工具，用户规

模获得较大幅度的增长。移动地图将成为

承载O2O发展的重要平台。王影预计未来

将继续保持平稳增速，到2016年用户规模

将达到5.2亿人。

新商业模式2012年是微信和二维码最火爆的一

年，特别是二维码。个人信息、商品信

息、企业公众账号以二维码形式展示，利

用智能手机、平板电脑等移动设备扫二维

码，可以直接进入网页。无论是查询商品

信息，还是网上购买，二维码技术尤为便

捷。与二维码、电子凭证技术密切相关的

则是O2O概念的流行。

2011年8月，Alex Rampell提出

O2O概念，并且推算出了O2O的商务规

模。美国电子商务每年的平均客单价大概

是1 000美元，但是平均每个美国人每年收

入大概为40000美元，剩下的39000美元

跑去了？（这是不准确且概念性的数字，

主要是用来解释目前消费者在电子商务上

花的钱还不够多）答案是扣税之后，钱都

花在咖啡馆、健身房、餐厅、加油站、干

洗店、理发店等，还要扣除旅游及那些在

网络上购买后送到家的生活服务类商品。

按照Alex Rampell这个说法，移动

互联网模式下O2O的商务规模至少是目

前互联网模式下电子商务规模的10倍以

上。2012年，中国电子商务的规模预计已

达1.5万亿规模。难道未来10年，随着移

动互联网的大规模推进，O2O商务的规模

可以达到20万亿？

2011年11月，O2O概念引入中国。

在团购和生活服务类电商的推进下，到了

2012年，O2O商务模式受到互联网精英

们、创业草根们、专业媒体、风险投资者

等业内人士越来越多的关注。无论是成熟

的传统企业，如火如荼的电子商务企业，

还是以电信、银行、娱乐等为代表与民生

相关的企业，都在探索和践行O2O模式。

上海翼码公司业务支撑部总监张波认

为，Alex Rampell提出的概念并不符合

事实，其他大众认可的三种新定义，也是

O2O发展的三个新方向。在总结这些新方

向的基础上，他提出自己的定义：“O2O

就是在移动互联网时代，生活消费领域通阿里巴巴布局O2O领域

话题

June 201362

过线上（虚拟世界）和线下（现实世界）

互动的一种新型商业模式。”

O2O核心张波于近期出版的《O2O：移动互联

网时代的商业革命》是国内首部关于O2O

的研究专著。“人性和科技的结合是目前

互联网营销和产品设计的趋势，随着移动

互联网时代的到来，使互联网世界和现实

世界互动变得异常简单，于是生活服务的

移动互联网化开始了。在生活服务领域

中，通过线上虚拟世界和线下现实世界互

动的新型商业模式，这就是目前业内热炒

的O2O商务模式。” 张波写道。

目前，国内成功的O2O企业不在少

数。驴妈妈旅游网是以自助游为核心特色

的新型B2C旅游综合网站，是受白领阶喜

欢的旅游服务品牌之一。经过数年发展，

形成了以打折门票、自由行、特色酒店为

核心，同时兼顾跟团游的巴士自由行、长

线游、出境游、定制游等网络旅游业务，

为游客出行提供一站式服务。景域集团董

事长和驴妈妈创始人洪清华表示：“如何

玩转O2O是这几年移动互联网行业内讨论

最多的话题，如何用O2O去旅游，是最近

一年我思考最多的问题。”

“携程的实践已经充分证明O2O对

传统行业的巨大革新。携程经历了O2O的

三个阶段和形态：机票和酒店等标准化产

品‘鼠标+水泥’模式；旅游度假复杂产

品“网络直销+线下旅行社服务”模式；贯

通主要旅行需求，线上线下融合，提供一

站式服务的OTP开放平台模式。现在携程

已经成为国内第二大旅游集团，为6000万

会员提供服务。”携程旅游集团副总裁郭

东杰认为，“携程的成功经验涉及O2O核

心，一是传统行业的信息化程度，二是准

确掌握用户的消费行为。”

不适应国情从中国O2O整体市场发展来看，清科

研究中心认为存在几大难点：O2O是自下

而上的过程，线下商家的信息化程度直接

影响细分行业O2O发展进程；产品或服务

的标准化程度是推动O2O进程的又一关键

因素，而服务行业零散经营背后，短期内

难以标准化；推广效果是否可以测度，这

是本地商家网络效果营销的关键；是否具

有足够的利润空间支持佣金模式？

O2O模式来源于美国，但并非美国所

有的O2O项目都适合在中国发展。专注于

O2O模式研究的行业机构品途咨询研究了

在国内复制失败的O2O案例。

一些餐厅预定企业目前发展状况不太

理想，无论是企业营收和网站流量增长都

陷入停滞状态，开始淡出公众视野。品途

咨询分析指出：“餐厅预定在中国并不是

很强的需求，中国餐厅数量多，用户并没

有很强的预定习惯；即便需要预定，中国

用户也更加倾向于通过电话而不是网络进

行。”

团 购 一 度 成 为 O 2 O 代 名 词 ， 但 从

2011年下半起团购陷入低谷。今年第一季

度，团购行业前五强之一的糯米网亏损达

690万美元。从整体看，目前团购行业依

然十分艰难。品途咨询认为，团购模式本

身有弊病，很难使网站、消费者和商家三

方之间达到共赢状态；而中国团购市场竞

争异常激烈，各大团购网站往往采取价格

战而不是服务去抢夺市场，这使团购行业

负面效应被放大。

品途网运营总监朱刚表示：“团购对

O2O的功劳无疑是很大的。首先众多团购

网站教育了大量线下生活服务业商家利用

互联网来招揽客户，其次团购培育了上亿

的用户在线购买生活服务，而这在团购之

前是很少见的，另外就是团购为O2O的发

展储备了大量的人才。”

还有相当多的O2O项目学自国外，但

多数并不成功。“不考虑国情，单纯将模

式照搬过来是导致失败的主因；采取不恰

当的发展策略，急于求成也是失败的重要

原因。”品途咨询指出。

O2O是通过线上虚拟世界和线下现实世界互动的新型商业模式

June 2013 63

REPORT

Picking up the tab

Factory managers may grumble

about the rising cost of labor

on China’s east coast. However,

based on a forthcoming report from a

leading state think tank, it’s the gov-

ernment that will foot the greatest bill

for the ample supply of workers in cit-

ies – something to the tune of US$300

billion during the next eight years.

Migrant workers are greatly in need

of public services. To make the hop

from village to city, they need housing,

health care and employment. Their

children must be put in school and

their parents require extra medical

attention. Under the current house-

hold registration, or hukou system,

most rural dwellers living in cities do

not receive social services and gaining

urban status is difficult.

There’s a lot of migrants too. About

160 million Chinese are working out-

side of the villages in which they were

born. They now constitute roughly

22% of China’s urban population.

It’s a costly combination when

attempting to officially integrate them.

Such a vast horde of people seeking

government support is set to spell

out enormous hospital, housing and

education bills, according to The Eco-

nomic Observer, a Chinese newspaper

that leaked details from an unreleased

report from the Chinese Academy of

Governance think tank.

China’s new government has

stressed the need for further urbani-

zation and for reform to the coun-

try’s outdated household registration

system. The groundbreaking Chinese

Academy of Governance report lays

out how much such efforts might cost.

In total, governments from the cen-

tral level down to smaller towns will

need to fork over about US$32.5 bil-

lion per year until 2020 in order to

deliver services to this floating popula-

tion, the newspaper said. That’s about

15% of the government’s total annual

budget.

But the payoff from urbanizing

migrant workers should be worth the

price. In fact, the cost of neglecting the

social needs of China’s primary labor

force could be disastrous.

Bearing the yokeIn that sense, the spending report from

the Chinese Academy of Governance

is timely. It’s one of the first concrete

outlines from the government on

where the money for migrants should

go. At a cost US$224 billion over the

next eight year, subsidized housing was

the most expensive item on the social

shopping list. Education would cost

only US$13 billion. The academy is

reportedly preparing to hand the plan

to the Ministry of Finance.

However, The Economic Observer

report provided few answers on how

the government would pay for it.

Smaller cities in the east of China

will be under the most financial pres-

sure. Cities and towns in the east

would have to come up with 65% of

the expenditure. Small cities would

need to pick up about 35% of the tab,

the largest portion, or some US$80 bil-

lion over the next eight years.

But small cities are already debt-

ridden and strapped for cash. Many of

them would simply not have the funds

China’s massive push for urbanization will land the country with an equally massive bill

June 201364

to pay the medical and education bills

of its out-of-towners, according to

Cheng Enjiang, an adjunct professor

of agricultural economics at Zhejiang

University.

Cheng said he doesn’t see how

these local governments can come up

with the money. “They don’t have the

budget. The money will need to come

from the central budget,” he said, not-

ing that he had not seen the report.

Bang for the buckRegardless of how governments mus-

ter up the cash, it’s clear that spend-

ing on migrants now will help define

China’s future economic outlook and

its transition toward greater domestic

consumption.

Multinationals already yield some

data on how much it will cost to pay

for better worker benefits but also

reveals the resulting gains in produc-

tivity. Based on information report-

ed by these global companies, mov-

ing workers from migrant status to

permanent contract worker status – a

shift that would happen more broad-

ly under forthcoming hukou reform

– increases costs per unit of output

by 4.5%, said Andy Rothman, China

macro strategist at brokerage CLSA,

during the firm’s annual conference

in Beijing. But the cost of officially

urbanizing migrant workers would

also boost worker output by 27%, he

said.

A plan to detailing measures to

reform China’s hukou system could be

released later this year, Rothman said.

The reforms are urgently needed

to encourage migrants to consume,

an important next step for the Chi-

nese economy. Without social sup-

port for children and parents, migrants

will continue to remit money to the

countryside instead of spending it in

the city, Cheng said. If the migrants

don’t have access to medical services or

adequate housing, they will continue

to save their money as opposed to con-

suming.

Promoting consumption among

rural residents is seen as a big part of

the transition to an economy driven

by consumption. The country is in the

throes of redirecting its growth model

away from one based on manufactur-

ing and exports.

Without solid outlays from the gov-

ernment, the next generation will also

struggle to urbanize. The children of

migrants are often left in the country-

side with parents and don’t have access

to quality education. If that practice

continues long enough, the education-

al gap will feed growing socioeconomic

inequality in future generations.

“What will happen with these chil-

dren?” Cheng said. “That would be a

long-term loss to the economy and to

the society.”

Putting a price tag on urbanization

is an early step toward avoiding these

losses to society and starts the discus-

sion of how it will be paid for. The cost

may be even larger yet: The expendi-

ture detailed in the Chinese Academy

of Governance report considers only

the migrants who have already moved

to the city, and many of more than 600

million rural residents could still make

the move.

There is little doubt that China’s

rural residents will continue to leave

the village and search out a better life

in the city. The transition is imperative

to the country’s future growth model

as well as the efficiency of its indus-

try. The government should continue

counting the costs of what looks to be

the greatest movement of people in the

history of the world.

June 2013 65

REPORT

An oasis of reform

As the story of Manhattan

goes, the island was sparsely

inhabited by Native Ameri-

cans until Dutch settlers purchased the

property for a modest sum in the early

1600s. The small plot of land rose over

the centuries to become the pinnacle of

the financial world.

Now China hopes to do the same

in Qianhai special development zone,

announced last June. While the monik-

er “Manhattan of the Pearl River Delta”

that has been applied to the zone may

be a bit of official bombast, there are

some comparisons to be made with

the humble beginnings of the New

York burrough. Qianhai – located on

reclaimed land – is also being built up

from nothing and is similarly small,

comprising 15 square kilometers.

Officials seek to shape the zone into

a modern financial services heavy-

weight by making it a gate for moving

capital in and out of the mainland.

The zone was hailed as a major step to

opening the capital account and insti-

tuting full convertibility of the yuan

into dollars, reforms eagerly awaited by

many in the financial world.

Regulators plan the hallmark of the

zone to be direct cross-border lending

in renminbi, an act that has previously

been impossible under China’s strict

capital controls. China allowed main-

land companies to settle cross-bor-

der transactions in renminbi for the

first time in 2009. Since then, growing

stockpiles of offshore renminbi have

amassed in Hong Kong with limited

means to reinvest that money. Qianhai

could serve as a portal for that capital

back into China.

But major pronouncements and

lofty language aren’t enough to make

a model for China’s new service econo-

my. Actual investment levels have been

low in the roughly 10 months follow-

ing the official announcement .

Consider, for example, direct cross-

border lending with Hong Kong. In

January, 15 Hong Kong banks agreed

to lend an equivalent number of indus-

trial companies roughly US$325 mil-

lion (RMB2 billion) in renminbi loans

for construction projects in the zone,

according to Z-Ben Advisors, a Shang-

hai-based investment consultancy that

tracks the developments in Qianhai.

That’s a meager amount compared to

the US$101.4 billion (RMB624 billion)

of renminbi deposits sitting in Hong

Kong accounts at the end of January.

Nevertheless, progress is being

made in the zone, and investors should

focus more on the regulatory chang-

es that have been implemented, said

Cindy Qu, a senior analyst at Z-Ben.

Regulators are attempting a variety

of reforms to build up the zone on a

well-rounded service economy. The

National Reform and Development

Commission (NDRC) has already

announced guidelines for the financial

services, logistics, technology and pro-

fessional services sectors in the zone.

Regulators have implemented 14 of

the 22 planned policy shifts in Qianhai,

according to Z-ben’s latest report on

the matter.

“Qianhai still needs time to build

up a better financial and banking sys-

tem,” Qu said. While tangible infra-

structure – the buildings to house

financial institutions and roads to serv-

Months after being unveiled, is Qianhai any closer to becoming the Manhattan of southern China?

June 201366

ice them – are part of the development,

the zone equally needs the financial

systems in place to allow for money to

easily be transferred across the border

with Hong Kong. The zone also needs

time to attract experienced bankers.

Both domestic firms and holders of

offshore renminbi have been watching

the zone with interest in the meantime,

Qu said. The lending rate for offshore

renminbi is much lower than on the

mainland. Offshore renminbi holders

therefore have incentive to lend into

the mainland, and domestic firms have

the motivation to seek them out. The

reforms may also attract investment

fund administrators, custodian banks

and brokerages to the zone, she said.

One key area to watch will be the

private equity “fund of funds” that was

established by China Development

Bank, a state-owned policy bank. The

fund will raise renminbi from Hong

Kong and the mainland to be invested

domestically in other private equity

funds. The fund seeks to raise up to

US$8.1 billion (RMB50 billion) but

is still in the fundraising stage. Once

that is finished later this year, the funds

will potentially be funneled into local

industries and drive faster develop-

ment in the zone, Qu said.

The widening of the Renminbi

Qualified Foreign Institutional Inves-

tor (RQFII) program that allows

offshore yuan to be reinvested in

the mainland should also be a boon

to Qianhai. The investment quotas

given under the program will grow

from RMB70 billion in January to

RMB270 billion under expansion plans

announced late last year. Any increase

in cross-border currency flows will

potentially bring business to the zone,

which is specializing to handle such

transactions.

Whether Qianhai will turn into a

model for the rest of the country, as

some have suggested, remains to be

seen. Qu is skeptical that other areas

could duplicate the zone’s model

because Qianhai is uniquely situat-

ed near Hong Kong and can attract

resources from the already developed

financial sector there. “Qianhai has its

own character and can develop those

kind of financial reforms.” Perhaps

select parts of the Qianhai model, such

as the fund of funds, could be used

elsewhere in the country, she said.

Qianhai may indeed be on the cut-

ting edge of financial reform – albeit

the forefront of a very slow moving

push to internationalize the yuan and

allow full convertibility to dollars.

Officials dream of Qianhai as a Man-

hattan of the Pearl River Delta, and

the government can certainly build

enough skyscrapers to make the zone

look the part.

But the reason Manhattan is the

center of world finance is because it’s

the flagship city of the world’s larg-

est free market. The free market sets

the pace of change, generally fast, on

the island. As long as the government

sets the pace of change in Qianhai, the

zone appears to be little more than

a minor experiment that falls in the

shadows of other major global finan-

cial centers.

June 2013 67

陆游眼里的房价这位诗人生活的南宋是古代居住成本最高的朝代文 | 李开周 经济生活史作家

以前我们探讨过北宋

两 位 大 文 豪 欧 阳

修和苏东坡买房的故事，

今天说说南宋最多产的诗

人—陆游。

陆游跟欧阳修和苏东

坡颇有渊源：欧阳修的孙

女嫁给了苏东坡的儿子，

而陆游是欧阳修孙女婿的

好朋友的堂弟的外甥女的

儿子。这句话能把人绕晕，但它是事实。

陆游跟北宋最有名的改革家王安石也

颇有渊源。据陆游自己撰写的家传，他的

祖父陆佃在宋神宗时拜在王安石门下，做

了王安石的亲传弟子。在王安石的悉心指

导下，陆佃政绩突出，仕途顺利，一直做

到礼部侍郎，相当于现在的副部级官员。

再仔细挖掘一下，陆游甚至还能跟皇

帝攀上亲戚。陆游的母亲姓唐，是个很厉

害的老太太，曾经逼着陆游休掉结发妻子

唐婉。老太太为什么如此厉害？因为她有

靠山：她的胞妹嫁给了吴越王的孙子钱景

臻，钱景臻的亲生母亲就是宋仁宗的第十

个女儿秦国公主。所以钱景臻实际上是宋

仁宗的外孙，陆游的母亲即是宋仁宗的外

孙的妻姐。而陆游算起来是宋仁宗的外孙

的内侄。这层关系说起来很远，不过仍然

属于皇亲国戚，所以陆游长到七八岁的时

候，还能跟着母亲进宫给后妃们拜年。

鉴于陆游跟北宋大臣欧阳修、苏东坡

和王安石都有渊源，又是皇帝的外孙的内

侄，所以他是典型的世家子弟。

话说回来，即使陆游跟欧、苏、王

等人毫无关系，也不属于皇亲国戚，他也

是个世家子弟。因为他的曾祖、祖父和父

亲都做过官。他的曾祖陆珪在宋仁宗时做

过国子博士，祖父陆佃在宋徽宗时做过礼

部侍郎，父亲陆宰在宋钦宗时做过转运副

使，都是响当当的官职。

陆游本人也做过官，而且官衔很多，

先后在宁德主簿、福州决曹、敕令编定所

删定官、大理寺直、镇江通判、隆兴通

判、夔州通判、蜀州通判、成都府安抚使

参议、四川制置使参议、提举福建路常平

茶盐事、提举江南西路常平茶盐事、提举

淮南东路常平茶盐公事、严州知州、礼部

郎中、膳部视察等等岗位上干过很多年。

其中“主簿”是低级文官，相当于现在中

国大陆的县政府办公室主任；“通判”比

主簿稍高一级，相当于副市长；“知州”

则是中级文官，相当于市长；“礼部郎

中”和“膳部视察”都属于京官，前者相

当于外交部礼宾司司长，后者主要负责在

宫廷举办大型宴会的时候为皇帝尝酒，一

般都是受皇帝宠爱的官员才能做的兼差。

也就是说，陆游从低级做到高级，从外官

做到京官，从府县碎催做到皇帝亲信，整

体上看，他的仕途还算顺利。

既然陆游的来头这么大，仕途又这么

顺利，名下一定会有很多房产吧？事实恰

恰相反，陆游一辈子没有买过一套房，同

时朝廷也没有分给他一套房。

当然，不买房，不分房，不代表没

有房。前面说过，陆游的曾祖、祖父和父

亲都做过官，应该会给他留下一些遗产。

不过我查遍陆游的家传和文集，没有发现

上辈给他遗留产业的记录。陆游中年时写

过一首诗，题目叫做《家居自戒》，最后

两句是“犹愧先楚公，终身无屋庐”。诗

里“先楚公”指的是祖父陆佃（曾被封

为“楚国公”），陆佃“终身无屋庐”，

说明官位虽高，房产却无，更别说留下遗

产了。

陆游的父亲陆宰做转运副使（相当于

副省长兼财政厅长）的时候，在我的老家

河南买过一所房。可惜后来金兵入侵，河

南沦陷，陆宰携家带口迁居祖籍绍兴，在

族人家里借宿，河南那所房子自然也不可

能作为遗产留给陆游。

没有遗产的陆游要想解决居住问题，

只能自力更生。

十八岁（虚岁，下同）以前，陆游跟

父母同住，住在绍兴族人的老宅里。十八

岁那年他去了杭州，跟表妹唐婉结婚，没

有婚房，在寺院里把婚事办了。

话题

越剧《陆游与唐婉》演绎凄美的爱情悲剧

June 201368

李开周

婚后陆游在杭州定居，没有住房，

在吴越王的一个子孙家里借住—前面说

过，吴越王的孙子是陆游家的亲戚。

两年后他跟唐婉离婚，从亲戚家搬

出来，又回到了绍兴。在父亲和族人的帮

助下，陆游在城郊盖了几间比较简陋的房

子。三十四岁那年，陆游正式参加工作，

带着续弦王氏去福建宁德县当主簿，住进

了宁德县的衙门大院。三十六岁调回杭州

做京官，任敕令编定所删定官（负责修订

法律，李清照的弟弟李迒也在这个岗位干

过），仍然没有住处，在杭州某条地势低

洼的小巷里租了两间屋子。这时候，陆

游已经有了四个儿子，怕两间屋子住着

紧张，所以让老婆孩子回到绍兴暂住，

他独自一人在杭州打拼。可是打拼了好

几年，还是在租房，因为杭州是当时的首

都，房价之高，空前绝后，凭他俸禄是买

不起的。四十岁那年，陆游被调到镇江做

通判，一连做了三年，积攒了一些钱财。

四十四岁那年，陆游回到绍兴老家镜湖之

畔，在离城区十里远的一个小山村里买地

盖房，安置家小，这时候他已经有五个儿

子和三个女儿了。

陆游很长寿，在镜湖旁边盖房以后又

活了四十多年，但是这以后的四十多年里

他再也没有盖房，更没有买房，尤其没有

去杭州买房。

陆游是很喜欢杭州的，他最留恋的

结发妻子在杭州定居，他在杭州工作了将

近十年，他非常想在杭州买房，可是他没

有。因为杭州房价太贵，是绍兴的几倍，

是绍兴城郊的几十倍。

整体来讲，陆游所生活的南宋是古代

中国居住成本最高的朝代。这主要是因为

北宋沦陷，金兵的狼牙棒逼着中原人民纷

纷南渡，使得只有两百万平方公里的小小

南宋一下子挤满了一亿五千万人（一说一

亿两千万），人口密度超过了此前的任何

朝代。

不过在南宋时期，房价奇高的地方只

有杭州、苏州、南京、长沙等几个中心城

市，在那些小城市，在小城市的郊区，在

广袤的农村地面，买房并不困难。关于这

一点，从陆游只做了三年通判就能去绍兴

城郊买地盖房（还一连盖了十多间）这一

事实上就能看出来。

为什么中心城市的房价会远远超过其

他地方？陆游给出了解释：大城市安全，

小地方不安全，住在城外和乡村，不是金

兵来袭，就是农民起义，搞不好就把小命

丢了，而住在有重兵驻扎的中心城市则没

有生命之忧，所以人人都想搬到中心城市

住，中心城市的房价就变得非常高。

现在不同于南宋，城里和城外都很安

全，在哪儿都能活着。只是趋利避害乃人

之本能，小命保住了，还想活得更好。而

中国大陆的一切优秀资源都被人为集中到

了大城市，所以人人都想住在大城市，大

城市的居住成本也就变得非常高了。

June 2013 69

汉字的魅力汉字在很多方面对汉文化造成了深远的影响文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

四十 多 年 以 来 ， 我

一 直 对 汉 字 颇 为

痴迷，这可是世界上最古

老的文字系统。“痴迷”

这个词在这里用得或许并

不恰当，用“着迷”应该

更为贴切。让我一直不得

不承认的是，汉字所蕴含

的 力 度 和 深 度 是 西 方 字

母，以及整个西方文字系统所不具备的。

汉字可以将我们直接带入远古时期，

即使是三千年前巫师在龟甲和牛骨上刻下

的文字到了今天依然清晰可辨。千年轮转

下的语言系统已发生诸多改变，但文字系

统在很大程度上仍保留了以往的形态，并

成为了汉族统治下的地域及周边民族书面

交流的基础。韩国、日本以及越南均采用

了汉语文字系统。由于汉字基本属于象形

文字，无语音表征，所以移植于其他文化

也十分方便。就像阿拉伯数字1、2、3在

全世界有一千种读法一样，一个汉字可能

有上百种发音，但其写法和代表的含义对

所有人都一样。

当然，简体字的使用在某种程度上

打破了历史的延续性，其发展和盛行很可

能是人为因素所导致。事实上我个人不

喜欢将传统汉字称作“繁体字”，更赞成

用“标准汉字”来将之与“简体字”进行

区分。我还察觉到，中国年轻人出于对传

统文化的好奇似乎已逐渐开始对标准汉字

产生了兴趣，但这也可能只是我的一厢情

愿。不可否认的是，无论是今天还是明

日，对标准汉字的掌握水平是考察一个中

国人受教育程度的前提。另外我也建议那

些正在学习汉语的非华裔人士尽可能多地

了解标准汉字，而非仅仅是简体字。如果

你通晓标准汉字，那么识别简体字将更为

容易。若反其道而行之则要困难得多。

谈到汉字，就不能不提书法。在西方

社会我们有“书写艺术”，但其价值甚至

还抵不上中国书法的百分之一，后者不仅

能表达含义和艺术风格，还能揭示书写者

的性格特征。这真让人惊叹！

毛泽东在很多方面都是杰出的人物。

单就其书法成就而言，他的头像也绝对有

资格被印刻在人民币上。他的书法风格清

丽、明快又颇具气势，同时不拘泥于艺术

的条条框框。

我的偶像，20世纪伟大作家之一林语

堂先生曾在其1936年出版的著作《吾国吾

民》中详细探讨了书法，并认为汉字在很

多方面对汉文化造成了深远的影响。这点

至少在传统汉字对建筑线条的影响上是成

立的。

他在书中写道：“屋顶斜倾的由来，

从未经正确地了解过，而它是中国建筑的

最出色最显著的特性。有人想象它是跟吾

们游牧时代的帐幕形式有联系关系。其实

它的理由在书法中可以明见，任何人能透

彻明了中国书法原则者无不能看出其可爱

的疾掠线条的纲领，中国书法之最大困

难，乃在使笔画饱含笔力，于完全直线的

笔画中常尤为艰难。反之，向任何一面略

作斜势，立刻可显觉紧张的气脉。”

摈弃僵直线条的做法恰恰成就了中国

传统汉字的结构和形体之美。林语堂先生

甚至追根溯源，将西方建筑中空洞的艺术

感归结于古埃及文化。对此他表示：“吾

们爱好含韵律的或波浪形的或继续的线条,

而憎恶呆直僵死的线条是很明显的,只要你

留意我们从未误会像克利奥潘曲拉方尖碑

那样拙劣的东西。”

看中国

书法艺术传承至今，生生不息

June 201370

晏格文

The introduction of simplified

characters, of course, to some extent

interrupted the historic continuity,

and it may well have been intention-

al. I personally prefer not to use the

phrase “complex characters,” and dis-

tinguish instead between “simplified”

and “standard.”

I detect something of a growing

interest amongst some younger Chi-

nese people in standard Chinese as

part of an overall curiosity about the

past of Chinese culture, but it may just

be wishful thinking on my part. But

I do believe that literacy in standard

Chinese is a precondition for an edu-

cated Chinese person today and for

the future. I also advise non-Chinese

people who are learning the Chinese

language to familiarize themselves with

more than just the simplified. If you

know standard Chinese, the simplified

characters are easy to figure out. Going

the other way is harder.

Associated inextricably with Chi-

nese characters is calligraphy. In the

West, we have “penmanship.” It is

not even a hundredth of the value of

Chinese calligraphy, which can convey

not only the meaning the word but

also reveal the personality of the writer

while also conveying an artistic style.

Amazing.

My hero Lin Yutang, one of the

great writers of the 20th century, spoke

at length about calligraphy in his book

“My Country and My People,” pub-

lished in 1936 and took the view that

the nature of the writing system had a

profound impact on Chinese culture

in many ways, not least of which is the

traditional abhorrence of a straight line

in architecture.

“The origin of the sagging roof,

probably the most unique and obvious

characteristic of Chinese architecture,

has never been properly understood,”

he wrote. “Some imagine a connec-

tion with the primitive tents of our

nomadic days.”

And yet the reason for it is obvious

in calligraphy. No one who knows the

elements of Chinese calligraphy can

fail to see the principle of gracefully

sweeping lines.

In Chinese calligraphy the greatest

difficulty is to bring about strength of

stroke, as it is always difficult to give

strength to a perfectly straight stroke.

On the other hand, a slight bent on

either side will give it immediately a

feeling of tension.”

The lack of rigid straight lines is

what makes traditional Chinese struc-

tures and scenes so attractive, and Lin

extends his acerbity for Western archi-

tectural simple-mindedness back into

ancient Egypt. “Our love for rhythmic

or wavy lines or broken lines and our

hatred of straight, dead lines becomes

obvious,” he said, “when it is remem-

bered that we have never perpetrated

anything quite as ugly as the Cleopat-

ra’s Needle.”

LOOKING AT CHINA

For more than four decades

now, I have been obsessed by

Chinese characters, the oldest

writing system in the world. Obsessed

may be the wrong word, better to

call it enthralled. But I am constantly

reminded that the power and depth

possessed by Chinese characters pos-

sess is entirely lacking from the West-

ern alphabet writing system.

Chinese characters provide a direct

link to the distant past. The words

carved on tortoise shells and oxen

bones by necromancers three thousand

years ago are to a remarkable extent

still readable. The spoken language

shifted and morphed over the millen-

nia, but the written system remained

largely stable and unchanged, becom-

ing the basis of written communica-

tion not only in the areas under the

rule of Han but in surrounding states

as well. Korea, Japan and Vietnam all

accepted and applied the Han writing

system, and because the characters are

fundamentally pictograms rather than

phonetic representations, they made

the transition to other cultures quite

easily.

A global parallel is that of Arabic

numerals – 1, 2, 3 – which are pro-

nounced in a thousand ways around

the world, but are written and mean

exactly the same thing to all people,

just as a Chinese character can be

pronounced in a hundred ways and

retains the same meaning throughout.

Chinese character magicThe Chinese writing system has a depth and richness the poor Western alphabet cannot compete withBy Graham Earnshaw

June 2013 71

青梅与啤酒晏格文（Graham Earnshaw）生于英国，现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点，行程从上海一路向西，横贯中国。本月，他行至巫山与奉节之间的双潭乡附近。文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

西游记

此时我已到达巫山、奉节两城间的山

区，此处位于长江以北，风景颇

美。我沿着一条僻静的乡间公路往下走，

沿途的行程牌逐渐从800米、500米缩短

至400米。路经一处农舍，只见外墙上写

着“牛羊牲畜不得入山，否则每头罚款

20-50元”。看来当地已正式展开封山行

动，山间不能再有任何农牧活动。河流以

北的山脉倒影折射出独特的风景，层峦叠

翠，山势豪迈，让人不禁想在这处中部圣

地多呼吸几口新鲜空气。

途中我巧遇一位农民，他提醒我小心

高速公路上的抢劫犯，称这些人来自偏远

的川西地区，从不干好事。

“你把钱放在哪里？”他问道。“在

我裤子口袋里。”“这不安全。你应该更

小心才是。”他一边说一边向我展示自己

藏钱的地方。老农穿了3件颜色各异的宽

松衬衣，钱就藏在最里面一件衣服左侧的

暗袋里。他一手将钱掏出，从厚度来看应

有400元左右，这对一位老农而言不算太

差。人们总是认为自己家乡的人最诚实可

靠，且不会对他人造成伤害，看来这已成

为了所有人都认同的普世观点。

一路下行，远处依稀可见双潭乡的屋

宅，尽管两地的直径距离仅有两三公里，但

若沿着蜿蜒的公路行走，距离足有6公里。

问题出在穿过峡谷的一条溪流，该流域距离

长江下游还有两三公里。上桥继续前行，映

入眼帘的是一条警示性标语，上面写着“在

林间种植鸦片者将依法予以逮捕”。

路桥位于峡谷顶端的右侧，随着始于

深山中的河流一起在峡谷间延伸。支流处

的一股股清泉在此汇集，不断稀释着主流

河道一路冲刷而过的泥水。

沿着河流旁的道路我一路下行至谷

底，但这并非尽头，路面仍向西延伸，仅

在双潭乡稍有断开。时值夏季午后，天气

闷热，村民们都围坐在商店和屋舍前庭的

阴凉处打牌闲聊，旁边还不时传来电视里

播放的古装片对白声。我在一家小卖部买

了瓶水，周围的村民纷纷招呼我入座，身

旁的小孩也透过手指缝偷偷打量着我。站

在我身旁的一名村民问我要到哪里去，我

也问了他是如何维持生计的。

“我靠打麻将。”他回应道。

“光靠打麻将赢钱就能生存了吗？”

“当然！”

“那你呢？”我又问了他身旁一位赤

裸着上身、脚穿人字拖的朋友。

“我也是。”他回答。

“其实他是医生。”前一个人插了进

来。

“医生？你之前在哪里学医？”我问

道。

“奉节。”

“学了多长时间？”

“10年。”

“你今年几岁呢？”

“三十好几了。”

“三十几呢？”

“三十七八的样子。”

“那究竟是37还是38呢？”

“37或38。”他坚持不松口。

这从侧面反映了他并不是医生，而是

诊所的医务人员，就像我在湖北见到的那

种为很多人提供静脉注射治疗的地方。我

问他目前人们最常得的病是什么，他回答

说是感冒和消化道方面的疾病。

“如果情况更严重怎么办，比如说生

了癌？”

“那我就送他们去医院。”

他问我来自哪个国家，我回答说是英

国。于是他条件反射般地开始用官腔和我

探讨起国际形势。“中国是爱好和平的国

家。”他表示。言语间的意思似乎是中国

一直远离战争。我决定打断他的话。

“这片区域有鸦片吗？”我问道。

“山上有一些。”他回答。顿时他两

眼放光，叫道：“鸦片战争！”

我笑了笑。

出了双潭乡，峡谷豁然开阔，南面

的斜坡上可以看到铺设了一半的高速公

路—所有的桥梁和涵洞建造目前仅完成

了二分之一，且丝毫没有开工的迹象。

此时我又碰见了一位在树下休息的老

农，单姓段，如今已是73岁高龄。他头戴

一顶宽沿草帽，脚踏一双传统手工草鞋，

身上的灰色衬衣也颇为得体。由于整体着

装效果十分亮眼复古，倒与他的年龄显得

不相称起来。另外他还提了一只小篮子，

里面有两只塑料袋，一只装了青梅，另一

只装了青椒。

June 201372

“我正要到双潭乡去把它们卖了，给

你一只梅子尝尝。”他告诉我。

我想付钱给他，但他拒绝了。梅子的

口感十分甜美多汁。

我问起他的生活情况，他称不错。段

老农的孩子都已参加工作，自己的身体在

这个年龄阶段也还算结实。

“你已经73岁了，那你肯定清楚地记

得毛泽东时代的情况？”我问道。他点头

称是。

“当时的生活情况如何呢？”

“很好！”从语气来看这个回答要比

对今天生活的评价更为兴奋。我想一探究

竟，但又觉得这不会有假，因为当时正是

他人生的黄金时期。就在我起身的一刻他

又抓了一把梅子给我。我将他戴在我头上

的草帽还了给他，匆匆告别后又上路了。

有趣的是，当晚我与一名刚高中毕

业、正等待大学录取通知书的女孩的对

话，足以让人窥见政治光谱的另一个极

端。当时桌上的啤酒品牌是“1958”，我

看见后有感而发地说：“1958年正值中国

大跃进时期。”

“大跃进？”她疑惑地问道。看来她

从未听说过这一名词，这让人有些吃惊。

行路途中我又遇见了一位与我同一方

向的妇女，她个子矮小，体态丰满，背着

一只在三峡地区极其普遍的漂亮柳条篮。

我问她今年多大（当然是在她先询问我之

后），得到的答案是37或38岁。这岁数在

附近地区明显算是分水岭，尽管从体态上

看她的确像是4个孩子的母亲，农民的妻

子，但脸蛋却只有25岁的模样。

她第一个孩子今年16岁，目前正在

重庆读高中。“一年学费多少？”我很好

奇。“要1万多块，我第二个孩子的学费少

一点，只有几千块。”我又问她钱从哪里

来，她告诉她的丈夫在峡谷另一头修建高

速公路。

“他们已经在那干了3年了，听说这

个工程4年就能建好，但是你看看，这像是

明年就能完工的样子吗？”

我摇摇头，说道：“不像是，但从你

丈夫的角度来看，工期难道不是越长越好

吗？”

TRAVEL JOURNAL

Money adviceGraham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we find him west of Wushan cityBy Graham Earnshaw

I was walking along a quiet coun-

try road in the mountains north

of the Yangtze River, somewhere

between the towns of Wushan and

Fengjie, one of the most beautiful

regions I have seen on my walk across

China. I followed the road downwards,

falling fast from 800 meters to 500 and

then 400. I saw a sign on a farmhouse

wall saying, “For every cow or goat

that goes into the mountains, com-

pensation fine of between 20 and 50

RMB.” It seemed they were serious

about letting the mountains recover

from the trauma of agriculture and

animal husbandry. The mountains to

the north of the river, the mirror image

of the ones from which I had just

descended, were high and wild, layer

upon layer of pristine greenness, and I

applauded the decision to expand this

huge lung in the center of China.

I met a peasant who told me that

I should be careful on the road and

watch out for highway robbers from

further west in Sichuan, who he said

were bad.

“Where do you put your money?” he

asked me. In my trouser pocket. “Not

safe. You should be more careful.” He

showed me where he kept his money –

he had on three loose shirts, each a dif-

ferent color, and on the left side of the

inside one there was a secret pocket in

which he kept his little stash. He pulled

it out and I would guess there was 400

RMB there. Not bad for an old farmer.

The one thing everyone everywhere

June 2013 73

TRAVEL JOURNAL

seemed to agree on was that people

from their own area were fine, upstand-

ing and posed no threat.

Down below, I could see the town

of Shuangtan, a couple of kilometers

away as the phoenix flies, but with

six kilometers by the winding road

between me and it. The problem was

a little river cutting through the val-

ley. The bridge over the torrent was a

couple of kilometers upstream. “Grow

opium in the forest and face prison,”

threatened a slogan.

The bridge was right at the top of

the valley, just where the river emerged

from the thick mountains and the val-

ley started to spread out. I watched the

clear waters of a stream from a side

ravine smashing into the main water

course, diluting the brown water that

had come a much longer way.

The road reached the base level of

the valley by the river and proceeded

westwards, with a brief stop at Shuang-

tan. It was a hot summer afternoon

and everyone in the village was sit-

ting around in the shade of the store

and house fronts, playing cards or pool

while a TV costume drama droned

in the background. I chose one store

front, ordered a bottle of water and

was invited by a couple of guys to take

a seat. The children stole looks at me

through their fingers, and the guy next

to me asked me where I was going. I

asked him what he did for a living.

“I play mahjong,” he replied.

“You make enough money at it to

live on?”

“Sure!”

“What about you?” I asked his

friend, shirtless and wearing flipflops.

“Same,” he said.

“In fact he’s a doctor,” interjected

the first guy.

“A doctor? Where did you study?”

I asked.

“Fengjie.”

“For how long?”

“Ten years.”

“How old are you?”

“Thirty something.”

“Thirty what?”

“Thirty seven or eight.”

“Thirty seven or eight, which?”

“Thirty seven or eight,” he insisted.

It transpired he was not a doctor, but

rather the operator of the sort of clinic

in which I had seen so many people

getting intravenous fixes in Hubei prov-

ince. I asked him what the most com-

mon ailments were, and he said colds

and problems of the digestive tract.

“What happens if it is something

more serious, like cancer?”

“Then I send them to the hospital.”

He asked me what country I come

from, and I said England. He started to

talk at me about international affairs

from the kneejerk clichéd mouth-

piece perspective. “China is a coun-

try of peace,” he said, as if it was an

exception to the war-mongering rule. I

decided to give him a break.

“Is there opium in this region?” I

asked.

“Some in the mountains,” he said.

Then his eyes lit up. “The Opium

Wars!”

I smiled.

Beyond Shuangtan, the valley wid-

June 201374

ened out and on its southern slopes

was the freeway-to-be – bridges and

culverts all half-finished and with no

sign of construction activity.

I came upon a farmer resting under

a tree. He was Mr Duan, a 73 year old.

He had on a wide straw hat, a rather

smart grey shirt and traditional home-

made straw scandals – all seriously

retro cool, and all due to disappear

with his generation. He had a small

basket containing two plastic bags –

one with small green plums, the other

with green peppers.

“I am going to Shuangtan to sell

them,” he said. “Have a plum.”

I tried to pay, but he absolutely

refused. The plum was juicy and sweet.

I asked about his life, and he said it

was good. His children were all work-

ing, and he was in reasonable health

for his age.

“At 73, you remember the Chair-

man Mao era very well,” I said. He

nodded. “How was life then?”

“Good!” More enthusiastic than the

“good” about his life today. I probed

why, and I got the sense that it was

really because that had been the golden

era of his own life. I stood up, and he

thrust a couple more plums upon me.

I handed him his hat, which he had

taken off while talking to me, and we

went our own ways.

At the other end of the political

spectrum, I had a conversation that

evening with a girl who had just gradu-

ated from high school and was wait-

ing for her university entrance results.

The brand of the beer on the table was

1958. “1958,” I said. “The year of the

Great Leap Forward.”

“The Great Leap Forward?” she

asked, puzzled. It seems she had never

heard of it. Amazing.

I came upon a lady walking in the

same direction wearing one of the

wonderful wicker-basket backpacks

found throughout the Three Gorges

region. She was plump and short and

when I asked her age (after she had

asked mine, of course), she said she

was 37 or 38 years old. Clearly a water-

shed age in these parts. Her face was

that of a 25 year old, even though her

body was that of a farmer’s wife who

had raised four children.

Her eldest child was 16 and was

at senior high school in Chongqing.

School fees? “More than 10,000 RMB

a year. And a few thousand for the sec-

ond child.” I asked where the money

came from, and the answer was that

her husband worked on the freeway

construction project on the other side

of the valley.

“Three years they have been at it,

and they said it would be finished in

four years. Look at it. Do you think it

will be finished next year?”

I shook my head. “No. But then

from your husband’s perspective, the

longer the better, right?”

勘误：上一期MICE  NOW刊物  P14  《消减旅费开

支》文章中，将全球订房网大中华区负责人的

信息刊登有误。负责全球订房网大中华区业务

的是姜君女士，她是全球订房网大中华区商旅

业务董事总经理。特此更正。

Correction: An article published on page 14 of the May issue of MICE Now entitled “Cutting Travel Costs”, contained an error. The leader of Hotel Reservation Service in China is Ms. Kimi Jiang, who is Managing Director Corporate Solutions of HRS Greater China. We apologize for the error.

June 2013 75

LISTING

Accounting Firms

Harris Corporate Services Ltd

www.harrissec.com.cn

Shanghai Office

Suite 904, OOCL Plaza,

841 Yan An Zhong Road,

Jing’An,

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6289 8813

Fax:+86 21 6289 8816

info.sh@harrissec.com.cn

Beijing Office

Room 2302, E-Tower, No.12

Guanghua Road, Chaoyang,

Beijing, PRC

Tel: +86 10 6591 8087

Fax: +86 10 8599 9882

info.bj@harrissec.com.cn

Guangzhou Office

Room D-E, 11/F, Yueyun

Building

3 Zhongshan 2nd Road

Guangzhou, PRC

Tel: +86 20 8762 0508

Fax: +86 20 3762 0543

info.gz@harrissec.com.cn

Hong Kong Office

7/F, Hong Kong Trade Centre

161-167 Des Voeux Road Central

Hong Kong, PRC

Tel: +852 2541 6632

Fax: +852 2541 9339

info@harrissec.com.hk

Airlines

Beijing

Lufthansa German Airlines

Beijing Office

www.lufthansa.com.cn

S101 Beijing Lufthansa Center

50 Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang

Tel: +86 10 6468 8838

Northwest Airlines Airport

Office

www.nwa.com

32271 Passenger Terminal 2,

Capital International Airport

Tel: +86 010 6459 7827

Business Schools

Shanghai

Fudan University - Washington

University EMBA

www.olin.wustl.edu/shanghai

(English)

www.fdms.edu.cn/olin (Chinese)

Room 710, 670 Guoshun Road

Shanghai, China, 200433

Tel: +86 21 5566 4788

Fax: +86 21 6565 4103

Manchester Business School

Part-time Global MBA

http://china.portals.mbs.ac.uk

Starts July 2013, Shanghai

Suite 628, 6/F Shanghai Centre,

1376 Nanjing Road West,

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6279 8660

mba@mbs-worldwide.ac.cn

Tongji University SIMBA

A309 Sino-French Center, Tongji

University, 1239 Siping Road

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6598 0610

Fax: +86 21 6598 3540

China Europe Int’l Business

School

(CEIBS) MBA

www.ceibs.edu

Tel: +86 21 2890 5555

Fax: +86 21 2890 5200

admissions@ceibs.edu

Shanghai Jiaotong-Euromed

Management AEMBA Program

(MBA/EMBA)

www.aemba.com.cn

Tel: +86 21 5230 1598

Fax: +86 21 5230 3357

aemba@sjtu.edu.cn

International Schools

Harrow International School

Beijing

www.harrowbeijing.cn

No. 5, 4th Block, Anzhenxili

Chaoyang, Beijing 100029

PRC

Tel: +86 10 6444 8900

Fax: +86 10 6445 3870

agan@harrowbeijing.cn

Saint Paul American School

www.stpaulschool.cn

18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

Road Qinghe, Haidian, Beijing

100192

PRC

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

spasadmissions@gmail.com

Shanghai

Livingston American School

www.laschina.org

580 Ganxi Road

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

Shanghai Community

International School (Pudong

Campus)

www.scischina.org

800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Pudong

Tel: +86 21 5812 9888

Fax:+86 21 5812 9000

British International School

Shanghai - Pudong Campus

www.bisshanghai.com

600 Cambridge Forest New

Town, Lane 2729 Hunan Road,

Pudong

Tel: +86 21 5812 7455

Hotels

Shanghai

Four Seasons Hotel Shanghai

www.fourseasons.com/shanghai

500 Weihai Road, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6256 8888

Fax: +86 21 6256 5678

reservations.shg@fourseasons.

com

Grand Mercure Hongqiao

Shanghai

www.grandmercurehongqiao.com

369 Xian Xia Road, Chang Ning

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 5153 3300

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

reservation@

grandmercurehongqiao-shanghai.

com

HR/Recruitment

Beijing

Beijing Deco Personal Services

Ltd.

china.adecco.com

D 9/F Tower II China Central

Place, 79 Jianguo Road,

Chaoyang, Beijing

Tel: +86 010 5920 4320

Fax: +86 010 5920 4322

beijing.cn@adecco.com

June 201376

Guangdong

Levin Human Resources

Development (Guangzhou) Ltd.

www.levin.com.hk

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

Tel: +86 020 2886 0665

Fax: +86 020 3878 1801

info@levin.com.hk

Shanghai

ADP China

www.adpchina.com

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

Huaihai Road Central, Shanghai

Tel: +86 021 2326 7999

Fax: +86 021 2326 7998

Marketing_China@cn.adp.com

Hudson Recruitment

(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

2302-2303, 2201-2206 Hongyi

International Plaza, 288 Jiujiang

Road, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 2321 7888

shresume@hudson.com

Language Schools

MandarinKing

www.mandarinking.cn

Shanghai

No.555 West Nanjing Road,

Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

555 Shanghai, PRC

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

study@mandarinking.cn

PR Agencies

Ketchum Newscan Public

Relations

www.ketchum.com

Shanghai

218 Tianmu Road West

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

Beijing

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Chaoyang

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

Ogilvy Group

www.ogilvy.com

Beijing

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

Street, Dongcheng

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Real Estate/Serviced Apartments

Savills Residence Century Park

www.savillsresidence.com

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

PRC

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

info@savillsresidence.com

Park View Apartment

wwww.parkview-sh.com

Block 1-4, No. 888

Changning Road

Shanghai, 200042

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

leasing@parkview-sh.com

Belvedere Service Apartments

www.belvedere.com.cn

Belvedere Service Apartments

833 Changning Road, Shanghai

200050

Tel: +86 21 6213 2222

Fax: +86 21 6251 0000

leasing@belvedere.com.cn

Lanson Place Central Park

Residences

enquiry.lpcp@lansonplace.com

Tower 23, Central Park

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

Shanghai

Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

Residences

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai

200136

PRC

Tel: +86 21 5013 3888

Fax: +86 21 5013 3666

Real Estate/Business Park

Sandhill Plaza

www.sandhillplaza.cn

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Hi-Tech Park, Shanghai 201303

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Shenyang

Shenyang International

Software Park

No.860-1 Shangshengou,

Dongling, Shenyang City,

Liaoning Province, 110167

Tel: +86 24 8378 0500

Fax: +86 24 8378 0528

Real Estate/HOPSCA

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Development Co., Ltd

www.antinganting.com.cn

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

jean.liu@chongbang.com

Service Providers

QC Integra

www.qcintegra.com

Hongkong Office

Jervois Street, Sheung Wang,

HK

Tel: +852 3008 5805

Shanghai Office

HuaYuan World Square, North

Zhongshan Road, Putuo District,

Shanghai, China

Tel: +86 21 6071 0550/0551

info@qcintegra.com

June 2013 77

Serviced Offices

Vantone Commercial Center

www.VantoneCommercialCenter.com

Level 26 & 27, Tower D, Vantone

Center, No 6 Chaowai Ave

Chaoyang, Beijing

Tel: +86 10 5905 5905

Chong Hing Finance Centre

Level 12, Chonghing Finance

Centre, 288 Nanjing West Road,

Huangpu

Tel: +86 21 6062 7183

Shanghai@executivecentre.com

The Executive Centre

Shanghai

International Finance Centre

Level 8, International Finance

Center, 8 Century Avenue, Pudong

CITIC Square

Level 35, CITIC Square, 1168

Nanjing West Road, Jing’an

Xintiandi

Level 5, Xintiandi, 159 Madang

Road, Luwan

The Centre

Level 20,The Centre, 989

Changle Road, Xuhui

Chong Hing Finance Centre

Level 12, Chonghing Finance

Centre, 288 Nanjing West Road,

Huangpu

Tel: +86 21 6062 7183

Shanghai@executivecentre.com

BEIJING (12 LOCATIONS)

Regus China World Tower 3

15/F China World Tower 3,

1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Chaoyang District

CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

Regus Yanlord Landmark

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Tower

No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

Road

Jinjiang District

CHONGQING

Regus Yangtze River

International Plaza

33/F Yangtze River International

Plaza

22 Nanbin Road

Nanan District

DALIAN

Regus Dalian World Trade

Center

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

Zhongshan District

GUANGZHOU (5 LOCATIONS)

Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

G.T. Land Plaza, No. 85

Huacheng Avenue

Tian He District

HANGZHOU (4 LOCATIONS)

Regus Euro American Centre

4/F Euro America Center

18 Jiaogong Road,

Xihu District

NANJING

Regus Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Tower (COMING SOON)

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Tower, No. 2, Hanzhong Road,

Gulou District

SHANGHAI (21 LOCATIONS)

Regus Plaza 66

15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66,

No.1266, West Nanjing Road,

Jing’an District

Regus One Corporate Avenue

15/F One Corporate Avenue

222 Hubin Road

Luwan District

Regus Jin Mao Tower

31/F Jin Mao Tower

88 Shiji Avenue

Lujiazui, Pudong

Regus One Prime

25 F, One Prime

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

Hongkou District,

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

Regus Futian NEO

44/F, NEO Tower A

6011 Shennan Avenue

Futian District

Regus New World Centre

(NEW)

23/F, New World Center,

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

Futian District

SUZHOU

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

(COMING SOON)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

Regus Tianjin Centre

8/F Tianjin Centre

No.219 Nanjing Road

Heping District

WUHAN

Regus Wuhan Tiandi –

Corporate Centre 5

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

Center 5, No. 1628 Zhong Shan

Avenue

Jiang’an District

Apollo Business Center

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

Huangpu

Shanghai

Tel: 021-6136-6088

Apollo Flagship Center

Apollo Building

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Jing’an

Shanghai

Tel: 021-6133-1888

Apollo Tomson Center

22/F, Tomson Commercial

Building

710 Dongfang Road

Pudong

Shanghai

Tel: 021-6165-2288

Apollo Xuhui Center

16/F, Feidiao International Building

1065 Zhaojiabang Road

Xuhui

Shanghai

Tel: 021-5158-1688

Apollo Hongqiao Center

26/F, New Town Center Building

83 Loushanguan Road

Changning

Shanghai

Tel: 021-3133-2688

To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our

representatives at:

如想刊登贵公司信息，敬请联系如下负责人：

邮件 Email: marketing@sinomedia.net

电话 Tel: +86 21 53859061

2205, Shanghai Plaza, No.138 Huaihaizhong Rd, Shanghai, China, 200021

中国上海市淮海中路138号上海广场2205 邮编：200021

LISTING

June 201378

姓名/Name  性别/Sex  国籍/Nationality 

公司名/Company Name 职位/Job Title

电话/Tel 传真/Fax 电邮/Email Address

杂志递送地址/Delivery Address

城市/City 国家/Country 邮政编码/Postal Code

□ 我要订阅印刷/电子版杂志 / I wish to subscribe to China Economic Review Magazine

请选择订阅类别/Please tick your geographical area (prices include postage):

一年12期/1 year - 12 issues □ 电子版 Web Access: RMB900 / US$150

□ 中国大陆 China: RMB960 / US$160

□ 香港 Hong Kong: RMB1,080 / US$180

□ Rest of Asia: RMB1,440 / US$240

□ Rest of the world: RMB1,800 / US$300

二年24期/2 years - 24 issues □ 电子版 Web Access: RMB1,620 / US$270

□ 中国大陆 China: RMB1,728 / US$288

□ 香港 Hong Kong: RMB1,944 / US$324

□ Rest of Asia: RMB2,592 / US$432

□ Rest of the world: RMB3,240 / US$540

APRIL 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 4 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2013年4月刊

FOCUS:COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Looking for a green future寻找绿色能源

徒步穿越中国医改突破口

电动汽车再发力

Illustrator：

Twoqee

Subscription Form印刷/电子版订阅表

支付方式/Payment Methods

□ 信用卡/Please charge to my credit card □ Visa □ Mastercard Mastercard Secure Code: □ JCB □ Amex

卡号/Card Number: □□□□ □□□□ □□□□ □□□□签名/Signature: 信用卡期限/Card expiry date: CVV:

BANK TRANSFER 银行转账 (an extra $8 fee is required for the service outside of Mainland China and Hong Kong)If pay by bank transfer, please contact our staff for more details.如需转帐或要求以其他支付方式购买，请直接与我们的相关负责人联系。

Please complete this form and fax it back to China Economic Review Publishing Ltd. Or send an email to subscriptions@chinaeconomicreview.comTel: +86 21 5187 9633 ext. 864, Fax: +86 21 5385 8953

请仔细填写以上表格各项栏目，并传真到：+86 21 5385 8953

或邮件至subscriptions@chinaeconomicreview.com

NEED MORE CHINA BUSINESS INFORMATION?Check our latest business guides and directories atchinaeconomicreview.com/store or sinomedia.net

The definitive guide to doing business in China

2013

2013欧洲MBA指南

2013中国MBA指南

A complete guide to international financial centers

CHINAOFFSHOREFINANCE GUIDE

2013

中国离岸金融中心指南

• MEETINGS • INCENTIVES • CONFERENCES • EVENTS

The most comprehensive hotel listing and event planning resource in China

2012-2013

The definitive guide to doing business in China

The must-have business toolkit for success in China

Includes• An overview of the economic year 2011, and

predictions for 2012• Interviews with leading experts on the major

trends affecting their industries• Profiles of every province, municipality, and major

city, including listings of hotels, restaurants and industrial parks

• Important information about establishing a business in China, including listings for reputable logistics firms, property agents, headhunters and financial services providers

• Invaluable insight into cooperating with your Chinese partners and successfully doing business in China

• Useful Chinese words and phrases for a preliminary crash course in Mandarin

www.chinaeconomicreview.com

CHINAGUIDEBUSINESS

20122012

CH

INA

BU

SIN

ES

S G

UID

E 2012

CBG2012CoverV04.indd 1 11-11-21 2:58

2012北美指南

MB

A G

UID

E 2012 - NO

RTH

AM

ERICA

北美指南

MBAguide-USA-cover2010V04.indd 1 1/6/12 2:24 PM

A complete guide to international financial centers

CHINA

OFFSHOREFINANCE GUIDE

2012中国

离岸金融中心指南

CH

INA

OF

FS

HO

RE

FIN

AN

CE

GU

IDE

2012

中国离岸金融中心指南

China Offshore Finance Guide 2012 is the leading bilingual handbook for Chinese individuals and companies engaged in the international investment industry. It includes:

• Profiles of 34 major offshore jurisdictions

• Expert interviews on what each jurisdiction has to offer Chinese investors

• Detailed breakdowns of financial products available

• Listings of business associations and agencies, corporate service providers, accounting firms, law firms and banks

• Feature articles on key industry trends

A complete guide to international financial centers

www.chinaoffshore.net

中国离岸金融中心指南

CHINA

OFFSHORE FINANCE GUIDE

2012