Getum vi borga ??

Getum vi borga ?? sland einhvern sns ea erum vi gjaldrota

Hugleiingar Elasar Pturssonar um rkisfjrml og kreppu.

Gert byrjun febrar 20091Tekjur rkisins

402.499.000.000,-Samkvmt vef fjrmlaruneytis

555.641.000.000,-Gjld!!!! 215 milljarar fara beint launagreislur ea rtt tp 60% af skatttekjum !!!215 milljarar fara beint launagreislur ea rtt tp 60% af skatttekjum3Og niurstaan 2009 er........Mnus... 153.142.000.000,-Og vi erum ekki farin a tala um....

IMF ofl. 680.000.000.000ICESLAVE600.000.000.000

En samkvmt bjrtustu vonum urfum vi ekki a nota nema 150.000.000.000, g vona a mismunurinn s gum vxtum.

Halli fjrlgum samkvmt vefriti fjrmlaruneytis rin 2010 og 2011 verur 160.000.000.000,-

Vi lofuum IMF a vera me hallalaus fjrlg 2012Sem er 38% af tekjum rkisins1.130.000.000.000 sem ekki a nota vextir eru 70 milljarar ri ea 18% af tekjum rkissjsVextirnir af 150 milljrunum eru 9 milljarar, allt mv. 6% vexti og fast gengi.4Er rki a spara??

Teki af vef http://hamar.stjr.is/Nei, hkkun tgjldum fr 2008 er 18,88%hkkun tgjldum fr 2007 er 39,78%Hva er framundan atvinnulfinu, mun a bjarga okkur t r kreppunni?

Atvinnulausir vera 15 til 25.000 etta og nsta rAtvinnutryggingasjur tmist seinnihluta 2009, eftir a hltur rki a urfa a fjrmagna sjinn me lnum.Hagkerfi er hgagangi, lkkun verur skatttekjum eldri krfur innheimtast ekkiInnflutningur minnkar = vrugjalda og tollatekjur lkka Uppsafnaur offjrfestingavandi fyrirtkja og einstaklinga mun kosta hundru ef ekki sundir milljara tpuum tlnum.Fyrirtki og einstaklingar eru a greia 25 til 30% vexti af lnum.Eftirfarandi frtt kom ruv.is, samkvmt henni skuldar hpur einstaklinga einn til 6 milljara

sustu dgum hefur veri tilkynnt um 250 milljara tap hj remur fyrirtkjum6Samkvmt frttum skuldar atvinnulfi 5.518 milljara.Um er a ra erlendar og innlendar skuldir og er vaxtakostnaurinn ca. 670 milljarar.

tla m mv tlur Hagstofu fyrir 2007 a heildarvelta virisaukaskyldra fyrirtkja s ca 2.500 milljarar n vsk, sem sagt 27% veltu fer vexti.

Getur atvinnulfi lagt meira a mrkum?

Tlur komu fram frttum og telur Vilhjlmur hj SA a treikningar su rttir7Samkvmt frttum skuldar sjfartvegurinn 5 til 9 hundru milljara.Ef farinn er varlegur millivegur og skipting erlendra og innlendra skulda tlu eins og kom fram frttum fyrir stuttu um skuldir atvinnulfs almennt

Heildartflutningsvermti sjfartvegs 2008 er tla 170 milljarar, me rum orum 43% af tflutningstekjum fara vexti.

a m v reikna me a atvinnulfi muni lti geta lagt a mrkum umfram a gert er dag. Ef lnin eru til 20 ra er afborgunin 30 milljarar ri sem ir a vextir og afborganir eru ca 60% af tflutningsvermti.....8Staan samantekin er v nokkurn vegin svona, helvtis fokking fokkLjst m vera a j me atvinnulf rst og halla upp 153 milljara 2009 og 160 milljara 2010 og 2011 (= 313 milljarar) mun ekki greia niur skuldir, a minnsta ekki mean halli er fjrlgum.

Leia m lkum a v a vaxtakostnaur nsta ri veri 125 til 150 milljarar og 2011 veri hann 150 til 200 milljarar.

Sem sagt uppsafnaur halli og vaxtakostnaur 2012 egar okkur er sagt a a fari a sjst til slar verur 600 milljarar ea meira.

a btist ofan 1000 til 2000 milljara skuldir.

Enginn hefur samt teki etta almennilega saman og tlur eru misvsandi jafnvel heimasum runeyta og stofnana.

Lesml og ggn heimasum stofnana og runeyta eru reyndar stundum annig a tla mtti a hugmyndasmiir trsarinnar og hagfringar hefu sami textann sameiningu.Vaxtakostnaur 2009 ln 1000, Ln erlendis 330 7% 23,10 milljarar, Ln innanlands 670 12% 80,4 milljarar, - Vextir ri 103,5 milljarar Vaxtakostnaur 2010 ln 1500, Ln erlendis 495 5% 24,75 milljarar, Ln innanlands 1005 10% 100,5 milljarar, - Vextir ri 125,25 milljarar Vaxtakostnaur 2011 ln 2000, Ln erlendis 660 4% 26,40 milljarar, Ln innanlands 1340 9% 120,6 milljarar, - Vextir ri 147 milljarar Samtals vaxtakostnaur 375,75 milljarar 9 eru td essar spurningar eftir, afborgunum af 2000 milljara lnum? vaxtagreislum upp 25 til 50% af tekjum? kerfi ar sem 50% tekna fara beint launakostna? stjrnlagaingi sem mun kosta ca. 600 milljnir, og deilunum sem v munu fylgja kerfi ar sem enginn vill spara og skringakonurnar f alltaf hggi? tugmilljara greislum gluverkefni stjrnmlamanna? launakrfum sttta sem hafa kverkartak jinni? alingi ar sem fir virast hafa kjark til ess a taka mlum? alingi ar sem liaplitk og skrum virast vera tekin fram yfir mlefnin? flki sem lemur bshld og hendir mat lgreglu? stjrnmlaflokkum sem vilja ekki taka vandanum? j sem heldur fram partinu? Getur j me ca. 400 milljara rstekjur stai undir......FjrlgTafla 1 Rekstraryfirlit A-hlutaRekstrargrunnur, m.kr.ReikningurFjrlgHeimildir FrumvarpFjrlg20072008200820092009Skatttekjur408,997430,425406,640399,763364,332Skattar tekjur einstaklinga114,466128,500123,594111,000103,313Skattar tekjur lgaila36,58445,50034,00027,20022,100Tryggingagjld38,90241,27940,43142,03339,819Eignarskattar11,95611,7237,8038,4497,063Virisaukaskattur137,710138,000135,899145,100128,196Arir skattar vrur og jnustu63,02258,22857,22958,32752,751Skattar taldir annars staar6,3587,1957,6847,65411,091Arar rekstrartekjur39,55536,36951,13445,92130,413Argreislur3,5811,5571,6512,1302,130Vaxtatekjur og eignatekjur25,01125,38239,66833,45822,288Rekstrartekjur taldar annars staar10,9639,4309,81510,3335,995Sala eigna20,4805,2002,0003,3006,300Fjrframlg2,2511,4461,3581,4861,453Srstakt endurmat viri rkisfyrirtkja14,8450000Tekjur samtals486,129473,440461,132450,470402,499sta stjrn rkisins3,4163,6523,6953,6653,783Forstisruneyti1,8232,1662,6142,3062,221Menntamlaruneyti49,59053,37855,20761,80958,801Utanrkisruneyti7,5448,9089,01211,42812,257Sjvartvegs- og landbnaarruneyti15,95616,35017,27917,78417,547Dms- og kirkjumlaruneyti22,27523,46123,77627,18823,456Flags- og tryggingamlaruneyti71,08285,41484,692102,481113,141Heilbrigisruneyti97,577101,824105,682119,371115,660Fjrmlaruneyti54,65648,41761,11952,97055,235Samgnguruneyti38,35154,90956,04957,31650,973Inaarruneyti5,0105,4986,1136,4806,281Viskiptaruneyti1,9152,3232,9842,7292,715Umhverfisruneyti6,1056,1676,4557,2176,632Vaxtagjld rkissjs22,22021,76432,70034,67086,940Gjld samtals 397,522434,232467,378507,414555,641Tekjujfnuur88,60739,208-6,246 -56,944 -153,142 Fjrlg a vibttum fjraukalgum rsins. skiptingu gjalda milli runeyta hefur veri leirtt fyrir breyttri verkaskiptingu Stjrnarrsins fr og me 2007.

Skipting tekna eftir tekjustTafla 3Skipting tekna rkissjsRekstrargrunnur, m.kr.Reikningur 2006Reikningur 2007tlun 2008Frumvarp 2009Fjrlg 2009I Skatttekjur377,383408,997406,640399,763364,332-10.40%Skattar tekjur og hagna138,652154,622162,188142,230132,923-18.04% Einstaklingar 103,935114,466123,594111,000103,313-16.41% Tekjuskattur einstaklinga81,12285,56489,27187,50089,3820.12% Srstakur tekjuskattur331-43000 Skattur fjrmagnstekjur22,48228,94534,32323,50013,931-59.41% Lgailar32,42736,58434,00027,20022,100-35.00% tali annars staar2,2903,5724,5944,0307,51063.47% Skattur fjrmagnstekjur rkissjs1,2662,4423,2492,6352,285-29.67% Gjald Framkvmdasj aldrara1,0241,1301,3451,3951,3953.72%Tryggingagjld37,81338,90240,43142,03339,819-1.51%Eignarskattar8,75411,9567,8038,4497,063-9.48%Skattar vrur og jnustu190,616200,732193,128203,427180,947-6.31% Virisaukaskattur132,122137,710135,899145,100128,196-5.67% Almenn vrugjld19,00719,28118,77420,02019,2432.50% Vrugjald af kutkjum10,08311,2087,4295,5302,103-71.69% Almennt vrugjald af bensni2,0601,9481,8902,1502,0206.88% Srstakt vrugjald af bensni6,9357,2206,9037,6537,3776.87% Olugjald5,5606,2246,1957,0036,4814.62% Arir srtkir veltuskattar6,8247,8998,1787,1847,294-10.81% Bifreiagjald4,1104,4354,6905,4205,19310.72% ungaskattur/klmetragjald1,1721,3411,3741,5271,3971.67% nnur neyslu- og leyfisgjld2,7443,4661,7961,8411,644-8.46%Arir skattar1,5482,7863,0903,6243,58115.89%II Arar rekstrartekjur28,22339,55551,13445,92130,413-40.52%Argreislur1,2363,5811,6512,1302,13029.01%Vaxtatekjur og arar eignatekjur17,87325,01139,66833,45822,288-43.81%Neyslu- og leyfisgjld7,6278,4078,2508,7134,376-46.96%Anna1,4862,5561,5661,6201,6203.45%III Sala eigna2,01220,4802,0003,3006,300215.00%IV Fjrmagnstilfrslur- - - - - V Fjrframlg2,1472,2511,3581,4861,4537.00%VI Srstakt endurmat viri rkisfyrirtkja12,19814,845- - - Heildartekjur rkissjs421,963486,129461,132450,470402,499-12.72%Sjshreyfing396,526468,912450,610438,530398,624-11.54% Fjrlg a vibttum fjraukalgum rsins.

Skipting tgjalda eftir mlaflTafla 5 Skipting tgjalda eftir mlaflokkum Rekstrargrunnur, m.kr.ReikningurReikningurHeimildir FrumvarpFjrlg20062007200820092009Almenn opinber jnusta18,21722,54825,05228,09729,02615.86%Lggsla og ryggisml15,23417,49520,58422,59919,614-4.71%Frsluml34,00438,05942,82148,91645,9507.31%Heilbrigisml88,48997,994106,780120,304116,3979.01%Almannatryggingar og velferarml71,55381,16997,349115,855127,29230.76%Hsnis-, skipulags- og hreinsunarml3,6225,3975,4766,9545,378-1.79%Menningar- og kirkjuml13,97915,33516,70216,88416,135-3.39%Eldsneytis- og orkuml2,3142,2852,8672,9272,836-1.08%Landbnaar- og sjvartvegsml16,30716,75717,11317,73917,4752.12%Inaarml1,5601,6811,9712,1492,0986.44%Samgnguml21,94126,39143,19546,40839,446-8.68%nnur tgjld vegna atvinnuvega4,8476,2278,8119,1719,91412.52%nnur tgjld rkissjs48,10366,18578,65969,410124,08157.75%Samtals340,170397,522467,378507,414555,64118.88% Samkvmt COFOG stali, sem er aljlegur staall Sameinuu janna (Classification of the Functions of Government). Fjrlg a vibttum fjraukalgum rsins.329,085

Sheet4

FjrlgTafla 1 Rekstraryfirlit A-hlutaRekstrargrunnur, m.kr.ReikningurFjrlgHeimildir FrumvarpFjrlg20072008200820092009Skatttekjur408,997430,425406,640399,763364,332Skattar tekjur einstaklinga114,466128,500123,594111,000103,313Skattar tekjur lgaila36,58445,50034,00027,20022,100Tryggingagjld38,90241,27940,43142,03339,819Eignarskattar11,95611,7237,8038,4497,063Virisaukaskattur137,710138,000135,899145,100128,196Arir skattar vrur og jnustu63,02258,22857,22958,32752,751Skattar taldir annars staar6,3587,1957,6847,65411,091Arar rekstrartekjur39,55536,36951,13445,92130,413Argreislur3,5811,5571,6512,1302,130Vaxtatekjur og eignatekjur25,01125,38239,66833,45822,288Rekstrartekjur taldar annars staar10,9639,4309,81510,3335,995Sala eigna20,4805,2002,0003,3006,300Fjrframlg2,2511,4461,3581,4861,453Srstakt endurmat viri rkisfyrirtkja14,8450000Tekjur samtals486,129473,440461,132450,470402,499sta stjrn rkisins3,4163,6523,6953,6653,783Forstisruneyti1,8232,1662,6142,3062,221Menntamlaruneyti49,59053,37855,20761,80958,801Utanrkisruneyti7,5448,9089,01211,42812,257Sjvartvegs- og landbnaarruneyti15,95616,35017,27917,78417,547Dms- og kirkjumlaruneyti22,27523,46123,77627,18823,456Flags- og tryggingamlaruneyti71,08285,41484,692102,481113,141Heilbrigisruneyti97,577101,824105,682119,371115,660Fjrmlaruneyti54,65648,41761,11952,97055,235Samgnguruneyti38,35154,90956,04957,31650,973Inaarruneyti5,0105,4986,1136,4806,281Viskiptaruneyti1,9152,3232,9842,7292,715Umhverfisruneyti6,1056,1676,4557,2176,632Vaxtagjld rkissjs22,22021,76432,70034,67086,940Gjld samtals 397,522434,232467,378507,414555,641Tekjujfnuur88,60739,208-6,246 -56,944 -153,142 Fjrlg a vibttum fjraukalgum rsins. skiptingu gjalda milli runeyta hefur veri leirtt fyrir breyttri verkaskiptingu Stjrnarrsins fr og me 2007.

Skipting tekna eftir tekjustTafla 3Skipting tekna rkissjsRekstrargrunnur, m.kr.Reikningur 2006Reikningur 2007tlun 2008Frumvarp 2009Fjrlg 2009I Skatttekjur377,383408,997406,640399,763364,332-10.40%Skattar tekjur og hagna138,652154,622162,188142,230132,923-18.04% Einstaklingar 103,935114,466123,594111,000103,313-16.41% Tekjuskattur einstaklinga81,12285,56489,27187,50089,3820.12% Srstakur tekjuskattur331-43000 Skattur fjrmagnstekjur22,48228,94534,32323,50013,931-59.41% Lgailar32,42736,58434,00027,20022,100-35.00% tali annars staar2,2903,5724,5944,0307,51063.47% Skattur fjrmagnstekjur rkissjs1,2662,4423,2492,6352,285-29.67% Gjald Framkvmdasj aldrara1,0241,1301,3451,3951,3953.72%Tryggingagjld37,81338,90240,43142,03339,819-1.51%Eignarskattar8,75411,9567,8038,4497,063-9.48%Skattar vrur og jnustu190,616200,732193,128203,427180,947-6.31% Virisaukaskattur132,122137,710135,899145,100128,196-5.67% Almenn vrugjld19,00719,28118,77420,02019,2432.50% Vrugjald af kutkjum10,08311,2087,4295,5302,103-71.69% Almennt vrugjald af bensni2,0601,9481,8902,1502,0206.88% Srstakt vrugjald af bensni6,9357,2206,9037,6537,3776.87% Olugjald5,5606,2246,1957,0036,4814.62% Arir srtkir veltuskattar6,8247,8998,1787,1847,294-10.81% Bifreiagjald4,1104,4354,6905,4205,19310.72% ungaskattur/klmetragjald1,1721,3411,3741,5271,3971.67% nnur neyslu- og leyfisgjld2,7443,4661,7961,8411,644-8.46%Arir skattar1,5482,7863,0903,6243,58115.89%II Arar rekstrartekjur28,22339,55551,13445,92130,413-40.52%Argreislur1,2363,5811,6512,1302,13029.01%Vaxtatekjur og arar eignatekjur17,87325,01139,66833,45822,288-43.81%Neyslu- og leyfisgjld7,6278,4078,2508,7134,376-46.96%Anna1,4862,5561,5661,6201,6203.45%III Sala eigna2,01220,4802,0003,3006,300215.00%IV Fjrmagnstilfrslur- - - - - V Fjrframlg2,1472,2511,3581,4861,4537.00%VI Srstakt endurmat viri rkisfyrirtkja12,19814,845- - - Heildartekjur rkissjs421,963486,129461,132450,470402,499-12.72%Sjshreyfing396,526468,912450,610438,530398,624-11.54% Fjrlg a vibttum fjraukalgum rsins.

Skipting tgjalda eftir mlaflTafla 5 Skipting tgjalda eftir mlaflokkum Rekstrargrunnur, m.kr.ReikningurReikningurHeimildir FrumvarpFjrlg20062007200820092009Almenn opinber jnusta18,21722,54825,05228,09729,02615.86%Lggsla og ryggisml15,23417,49520,58422,59919,614-4.71%Frsluml34,00438,05942,82148,91645,9507.31%Heilbrigisml88,48997,994106,780120,304116,3979.01%Almannatryggingar og velferarml71,55381,16997,349115,855127,29230.76%Hsnis-, skipulags- og hreinsunarml3,6225,3975,4766,9545,378-1.79%Menningar- og kirkjuml13,97915,33516,70216,88416,135-3.39%Eldsneytis- og orkuml2,3142,2852,8672,9272,836-1.08%Landbnaar- og sjvartvegsml16,30716,75717,11317,73917,4752.12%Inaarml1,5601,6811,9712,1492,0986.44%Samgnguml21,94126,39143,19546,40839,446-8.68%nnur tgjld vegna atvinnuvega4,8476,2278,8119,1719,91412.52%nnur tgjld rkissjs48,10366,18578,65969,410124,08157.75%Samtals340,170397,522467,378507,414555,64118.88% Samkvmt COFOG stali, sem er aljlegur staall Sameinuu janna (Classification of the Functions of Government). Fjrlg a vibttum fjraukalgum rsins.329,085

Sheet4

Sheet1Hlutf.VextirVaxtagr.Heildar skuldir 5,518milljararErlendar skuldir68%3,752milljarar7%262.6568milljararInnlendar skuldir32%1,766milljarar23%406.1248milljarar

Samtals vaxtakostnaur atvinnulfs 2009668.7816milljarar

Sheet1Hlutf.VextirVaxtagr.Heildar skuldir 600milljararErlendar skuldir68%408milljarar7%28.56milljararInnlendar skuldir32%192milljarar23%44.16milljarar

Samtals vaxtakostnaur sjfartvegs 200972.72milljarar