Biological Solutions to Climate Change:

An Energy Systems PerspectiveDavid B. Layzell, PhD, FRSC, Professor

Director, Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research (CESAR) Initiative,University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta

…special thanks to Chris Stone & Ralph Torrie for assistance with the Sankey Diagrams

Biological Systems: Managing Global Climate for over 500 M yrs

Albedo

Sun’s shortwave radiation

Infra-red long wave radiation (low heating)

Reflected shortwave radiation

Snow

Deserts

Clouds

Cloudless sky

Vegetation (esp conifers)

Sun’s shortwave radiation

Reflected shortwave radiation

Infra-red long wave radiation (more heating)

Vegetation

Ocean biology

High = cooling Low = warming

CO2

GHG management

Coal Oil Nat’l Gas

C held in Dead Biomass

CH4

N2O

(Absorbs long wave radiation)

Canada’s Green Advantage

Biological Solutions

Potential(Mt CO2e/yr)

1. N2O and CH4

emission reductionsN2O, CH4

Up to 40

Problem(Mt CO2e/yr)

Landfills: -22Crops/Soils: -30

Animals: -24Wetlands: -3

-79

Example Strategies

Improved landfill, manure, fertilizer, wetland & animal prod’n mgmt/technol.

2. Soil carbon sinks:

Up to 30+ ?

+8

Reduced tillage, New Crops Biochar Pasture mgmt

3. Forest carbon sinks

Up to 70+ ?

-99 to +88

Improved silvaculture, pest & fire control

New genotypes

Biological Solutions4. Heat and power

Potential(Mt CO2e/yr)

Problem(Mt CO2e/yr)

Power Gen: -101

Up to 70 ?

Example Strategies

Replace coal for power gen, or in cement making

5. Transportation fuels

Transportation: -199

Up to 50 ?

Supplement / replace gasoline or diesel with biofuels

6. Bio-Products

From

Pea

k oi

l Blo

g 20

08

5 ?

Metal: -17Cement: -9 -26

Replace steel and cement with wood in construction

Obama renews commitment to CC action

Melting arctic & severe weather

Fossil fuel recovery & pipeline projects lack ‘Public License’

Interest in Cdn energy strategy & systems level approaches

High cost for CCS ($150+/tCO2)

What do Canadian energy systems look like?What is the current role for bioenergy/biofuels?

Cycles of Interest & Investment in Biological

Solutions to Climate Change

KYOTO Protocol

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Forest & Agric’l C Sinks seen as central to Canada meeting its Kyoto commitment

Plans for Emission Trading

Many R,D&D initiatives funded

Forest fires & Mtn Pine Beetle make Canada’s forests a C source

Change in Fed. Gov’t CC policies

Canada Abandons Kyoto Protocol

Concerns about validity / verification of offset projects

Focus on geol. CCS research & deployment

Canada’s Energy Systems (2010)

Oil

Gas

Coal

Uranium

HydroBio

Export

Demand

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Sou

rces

Import NOTE: Net export:

~50+% of 1o energy supply

Biomass: 2.7% of 1o energy supply

GasolineDiesel

Wood, Ethanol, Biodiesel

Electricity

CANADA’S ENERGY

INDUSTRIES

Crude oil

Pipelined Natural Gas

Uranium oxide & Fuel pellets

Oil

Gas

Coal

Uranium

HydroBio

Export

Demand

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Sou

rces

Import

Canada exports ~50% of its

primary energy production

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Sou

rces

Ser

vice

D

eliv

eredOil

Gas

Coal

Uranium

Hydro

Bio

Demand

Con

vers

ion

Loss

Canada’s Energy Systems (2010)

Cdn Domestic Energy Systems (2010)

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Sou

rces

Ser

vice

D

eliv

eredOil

Gas

Coal

Uranium

Hydro

Bio

Demand

Con

vers

ion

Loss

Mobility

ResidencesSupply Chain

Buildings

Industry

Non-Energy

Cdn Domestic Energy Systems (2010)

Gasoline

Diesel

Wood, biofuels

Elect-ricity

CANADA’S ENERGY INDUSTRIES

Natural Gas

• 5.7% of domestic primary energy supply• Equivalent to ~39 Mt dry biomass/yr

Power

57 32 91 14 478 27Mobility

Residences

Supply Chain Industry (mostly forestry sector)

PJ/y

r

Biomass:(693 PJ/yr)

Conv. Loss

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Sou

rces

Ser

vice

D

eliv

eredOil

Gas

Coal

Uranium

Hydro

Bio

Demand

Con

vers

ion

Loss

Cdn Domestic Energy Systems (2010)

Ene

rgy

Dem

and:

336

101

(Pow

er)

5637

3424

Exp

ort

Exp

ort

0.3

1

1

Domestic GHG Emissions (Mt CO2e/yr)

To address climate change, Cdn GHG emissions must be reduced by

520 to 640 Mt CO2e/yrby mid century.

+ Non-energy GHG

emissions

Land use, land use change & forestry

22

5654In

dust

ry

Agr

icul

ture

Was

te

~100

= Total GHG Emissions:

~800 Mt CO2e/yr

Mobility

ResidencesSupply Chain

Buildings

Industry

Non-Energy

Message #1:

Go big or go home.

We have a 500+ Mt/yr GHG problem…

…”solutions” that are less than 1Mt/yr are not climate change solutions.

Message #2:

We have the bio-resource potential

Potential for Bioenergy

Forest Harvest Residues

MSW0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Bio

ener

gy P

oten

tial -

Mt(d

ry) b

iom

ass/

yr

Manure

Biomass Crops

Crop ResiduesMill Residues

Unused AACFire ResiduePest/Disease ResidueSilviculture/ Forest Mgmt

Aggr-essive

Conser-vative

700Approx. equal to all 1o energy used domestically in Canada

BC

Que

WheatHay

Forestry

AgricultureCorn

Current Forestry & Agriculture Production(165 Mt/yr)

Estimate for biomass potential for energy

Existing bioenergy (~5.7% Ttl energy)

At 130 Mt(dry)/yr, bioenergy could provide:2000 PJ/yr (~1M

boe/d)Reduce GHG by

~130 Mt CO2e/yr

How much?

Message #3:

We need to enhance the value of our bio-resources.

$50-

200/

dry

t

$100

-300

/dry

t

Woo

d/S

traw

Cor

n

Forest Rd or Farm Gate

The Price of Energy$6

0-10

0/bo

e

$3-$

7/G

J

$0.5

0-3.

50 /G

J

0

10

20

30

40

2008

-13

Ene

rgy

Pric

e ($

/GJ)

Oil

Gas

Coa

l

Wellhead or Mine Face

The Price of Energy (2008-13)

Strategies for enhancing the Bio-

resource value?

The efficiency and cost of converting feedstocks to energy commodity;

The quality / ease of use of the energy commodity;

The life cycle ‘carbon benefit’ of the bioresource

Depends on carbon price

Typically <$3/GJ benefit

Also Consider…

Energy Commodity

$50-

100/

MW

h

$0.60-1.00/L

Ele

ctric

ity

Gas

olin

e

Die

sel

Bio

dies

el

Eth

anol

Strategies for Enhancing the Bio-Resource Value.

1. Price on Carbon

2. Regulation e.g. fuel standards

3. Enhance the Value Chain:

Examples: Biomass waste to

energy or C sinks Water treatment + C sink

/ energy resource ??

Spent AC

Biochar

• oil sands in situ production• oil sands mining (tailings)• tight oil / gas fracking water

Cleaner Water

Activated C Biochar (ACB)

Biomass

Energy C sink

Rec

ycle

Produced Water Containing OrganicsCO2

CO2

CO2

Adsorption

See Poster by Veksha et al. 2013

Strategies for Enhancing the Bio-Resource Value.

4. Partner rather than Compete

The existing energy industry has the resources, scale of operations and the need for cleaner technologies.

Rather than working to take market share away from the industry, find ways to help the industry reduce their C, water or biodiversity footprint.

The energy industry will pay more for GHG solutions that are “inside their fence” than for “offsets” to meet regulatory requirements.

Message #4:

Will the Atmosphere Notice?

Can you ‘PROVE’ that the Atmosphere Noticed?

Verification (with minimal transaction costs): a challenge for offsets from non-energy emission reductions or C sinks

Permanence:“…the risk that emission removals by sinks are reversed, because forests are cut down or destroyed by natural disaster”

Leakage:“…the increase in emissions outside the project boundary that occurs as a consequence of the implementation of the project”

What happens when neither the buyer

nor the seller are deeply invested

in whether the activity is real?

Buyer: regulatory complianceSeller: financial compensation.

Who in the transaction is looking out for the interests of the atmosphere?

Message #5:

Plan for Unintended Consequences

Unintended Consequences

For the Emerging Bioeconomy:1. Food Price / Availability2. Water 3. Land use / Biodiversity4. Albedo5. Byproduct streams

Investors and regulators need to foresee possible

problems and address them

early.

A common problem in the energy sector, given the scale of the industry and its expanding geographical distribution.

We need to learn from the past mistakes of other industry sectors, and get in front of problems before they undermine

the public license to operate.

See poster by Sara Goto

Summary of Key Messages

1. Go big or go home.

2. We have the bio-resource potential.

3. We need to enhance the value of our bio-resources.

4. Will the atmosphere notice?

5. Plan for unintended consequences.

Thank you