信息2011 冬季號 Compass Winter 2011

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國家概覽

土耳其有7, 3 0 0萬人口，位於歐亞交

界，扼歐洲、中東與中亞交通咽喉，為外

來投資者提供獨特商機。2001年金融危機

過後，土耳其獲得國際貨幣基金組織和世

界銀行支持，成功推行有效的貨幣及金融

政策，並改革經濟結構，隨即進入快速增

長期，2002至2007年本地生產總值平均每

年增長達7 %。土耳其於2 010年的經濟增

長冠絕經合組織成員國。土耳其是新興市

場中發展前景最受看好的歐洲經濟體系之

一，惟市場仍憂慮其宏觀經濟失衡惡化且

過份倚賴外國融資。

政治趨勢

土耳其的執政黨正義與發展黨在

2 011年6月的國會選舉中獲勝展開第三次

執政，有利維持政局穩定。自1980年代以

來，庫爾德族分離主義組織庫爾德工人黨

Country Overview

Turkey, a country of 73 million inhabitants situated at the junction of Asia and Europe, is a gateway between Europe, Middle East and Central Asia which offers unique business opportunities for foreign investors. After the 2001 financial crisis Turkey entered a period of high growth (annual GDP growth rate averaged at 7% during 2002 to 2007) thanks to effective monetary and fiscal policies and structural economic reforms made with the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Turkey’s economic growth in 2010 was the highest among the OECD countries. While Turkey is taking its place in the emerging markets list as one of Europe’s most promising economies, concerns remain for the country’s mounting macro-economic imbalances and its heavy reliance on foreign financing.

Political Trend

Turkey’s ruling party, Justice and Development Party (AKP), won a third term in parliamentary elections in June 2011, offering political stability to the country. Since the 1980s, the Kurdish separatist group Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK) has posted serious threats to Turkey’s domestic security. In the past few years, clashes between Turkish security forces and PKK militants have been interrupted only by sporadic and ineffective cease-fires, while the absence of credible political initiatives to

Highlights

Political• The ruling Justice and Development Party won a third term in

parliament, but failed to get enough seats to unilaterally push through a new constitution

• Domestic political agenda primarily focuses on rewriting a new constitution and solving the Kurdish issue

• The Syria uprising has pressed Turkey to change its foreign policy and threatened the country’s political stability

Economic• Turkey staged a strong economic rebound in 2010 with GDP

growth of 8.9%, the highest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries

• Current account deficit was mainly financed by short-term capital flows, making the economy vulnerable to sudden shifts in global risk appetite

近況概覽

政治• 執政黨正義與發展黨連續三度勝出國會選舉，惟仍未能取得足夠的大多數議席推動修改憲法

• 國內主要政治議題為修改憲法及解決庫爾德族問題

• 外交政策因敘利亞示威而出現變化，威脅政局穩定

經濟• 於2010年強力反彈，本地生產總值增長8.9%，是經濟合作與發展組織（經合組織）中增長最高的國家

• 往來帳赤字主要以短期流動資金流支持，一旦全球風險突變，經濟將難免受到影響

土耳其─金融體系完善Turkey – Solid Financial System

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信息2011 冬季號 Compass Winter 2011

首都Capital

安卡拉Ankara

人口（2010年）Population (2010)

7,330萬73.3 million

貨幣Currency

土耳其里拉Turkish Lira

官方語言Official language

土耳其語Turkish

國家制度Form of state

議會民主制Parliamentary Democracy

主要資料 Key Data

服裝及紡織品 Clothing & textiles 18.9% 化學品 Chemicals 14.6%

汽車 Automotive 13.0% 石油及天然氣 Oil & gas 11.6%

基本金屬 Basic metals 12.7% 汽車 Automotive 8.5%

德國 Germany 10.1% 俄羅斯 Russia 11.6%

英國 UK 6.4% 德國 Germany 9.5%

意大利 Italy 5.7% 中國 China 9.3%

資料來源：經濟學人智庫 (www.eiu.com)Source: Economist Intell igence Unit (www.eiu.com)

一直嚴重威脅土耳其的本土安全。過去幾

年，土耳其保安部隊與庫爾德工人黨武裝

分子不斷發生衝突。由於未有提出足以令

人相信可解決國內庫爾德族問題的政治措

施，結果令雙方矛盾惡化。通過修憲解決

庫爾德族問題將成為政府艱巨的挑戰。

經濟趨勢

土耳其金融市場和銀行體系監管妥

善，令土耳其在全球金融危機中未受到太

大衝擊，並於2010年強勁復甦，本地生產

總值增長達8.9%。個人消費佔本地生產總

值近70%，2010年的升幅達6.6%。出口及

信貸恢復增長亦是經濟增長的另一元素。

然而，土耳其的往來帳長期出現赤字，而

且一直以不穩定的短期投資應付，缺乏外

國直接投資，經濟因此受到拖累。土耳其

的出口及其本地製造業均非常依賴進口，

以致進出口同步增減，難以靠增加出口減

少赤字。

自1995年加入世界貿易組織（世貿）

及1996年與歐盟簽署關稅協議後，土耳其

的對外貿易政策大幅度開放。土耳其加入

歐盟關稅同盟後，對所有來自第三國工業

產品及經加工農產品的工業成份均實施歐

盟的統一對外關稅。不過，土耳其自有一

套不同於歐盟的反傾銷措施。

香港與土耳其的貿易

2 0 1 0年，土耳其為香港第 3 8大貿

易夥伴。香港與土耳其的貿易總值為

address Turkey’s domestic Kurdish issue fuels frustration on both sides. Addressing domestic Kurdish discontent in the framework of a new constitution will be a daunting challenge for the government.

Economic Trend

Turkey’s well-regulated financial markets and banking system weathered the global financial crisis reasonably well. It staged a strong comeback in 2010, with GDP growth reaching 8.9%. Private consumption, which constitutes nearly 70% of GDP, grew by 6.6% in 2010. Recovery in exports and credit expansion also supported the economic growth. The economy, however, remains burdened by a persistent current account deficit which is financed by volatile short-term investment rather than foreign direct investments (FDI). Turkish exports have high import dependence, so as its domestic manufacturing industry. Therefore, export and import growth tend to move in tandem, making it difficult for Turkey to rely on export growth to narrow the deficit.

Turkey’s foreign trade policy has significantly liberalised after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 and signing the Customs Union with the European Union (EU) in 1996. As a result of the Customs Union with the EU, Turkey applies the EU common external tariff (CET) to all industrial products and to the industrial components of processed agricultural products from third countries. However, Turkey has its own anti-dumping actions, which are separate from those of the EU.

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主要出口（佔2010 年總額百分比）Major Exports (% of Total, 2010)

主要進口（佔2010 年總額百分比）Major Imports (% of Total, 2010)

三大出口國（佔2010 年總額百分比）Top Three Export Countries (% of Total, 2010)

三大進口國（佔2010 年總額百分比）Top Three Import Countries (% of Total, 2010)

資料來源：經濟學人智庫 (www.eiu.com)Source: Economist Intell igence Unit (www.eiu.com)

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本地生產總值（十億美元） Nominal GDP (USD bn) 730.3 614.6 735.3 746.0

實際本地生產總值增長（百分比） Real GDP growth (%) 0.7 -4.8 8.9 6.0

人均本地生產總值（美元） GDP per capita (USD) 10,160 8,460 10,030 10,080

通脹率（百分比） Inflation (%) 10.4 6.3 8.6 6.0

財政結餘（佔國內生產總值百分比） Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -1.8 -5.5 -3.6 -1.5

往來帳結餘（佔國內生產總值百分比） Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.7 -2.3 -6.5 -8.8

外債／本地生產總值（百分比） External debt / GDP (%) 36.1 40.9 39.5 41.6

^ 預測 Forecast資料來源：經濟學人智庫 (www.eiu.com)

*估計 EstimateSource: Economist Intelligence Unit (www.eiu.com)

經濟指標 Economic Indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011^

資料來源：經濟學人智庫 (www.eiu.com)Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (www.eiu.com)

^ 預測 Forecast

經濟趨勢 Economic Trend

76億港元，佔香港貿易總值0 . 1 %。香港

至土耳其的出口總值由 2 0 0 9年的 4 8億

港元增長19.1%至2010年的57億港元，而

2011年上半年香港至土耳其的出口總值較

2 010年同期上升19 . 2 %。2 010年，出口

至土耳其的三大類貨品為： (1 )通訊設備及

配件 (25.4%)、 (2)鐘錶 (10.0%)及 (3)電腦

(5.1%)。

信保局承保經驗

信保局向中小企為主的土耳其買家提

供保險服務。於2010年9月至2011年8月，

信保局於土耳其的受保業務增長20.7%，主

要受保產品為電子產品、化學品及電器。年

內付款紀錄良好，並無大額索償。

Hong Kong-Turkish Trade

Turkey was the 38th largest trading partner of Hong Kong in 2010, with total trading value of HKD7.6 billion, which represented 0.1% of Hong Kong’s total trading value. Total exports from Hong Kong to Turkey increased by 19.1% from HKD4.8 billion in 2009 to HKD5.7 billion in 2010. For the first half of 2011, total exports to Turkey increased by 19.2% compared to the same period in 2010. The top three export categories to Turkey in 2010 were: (1) Telecommunications equipment and parts (25.4%), (2) Watches and clocks (10.0%), and (3) Computers (5.1%).

ECIC Underwriting Experience

The ECIC provides cover to Turkish buyers, which are mainly small to medium sized companies. During September 2010 to August 2011, ECIC’s insured business in Turkey increased by 20.7%. Major insured products are electronics, chemical products and electrical appliances. Payment experience during the year was satisfactory with no major claims.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

(年份 Year)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

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香港對土耳其的出口總值Hong Kong Total Exports to Turkey

(百萬港元

HK

D m

n)

資料來源：香港貿易發展局Source: Hong Kong Trade Development Council

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