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Comparative EnergySystems

Lecture 2

eDMP: 14.43 / 15.031 / 21A.341/ 11.1611

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Satellite Observations of CO Concentrations:Can You Explain Their Locations?

Source: NASA MOPITT

Video links of CO concentrations in simulation are no longer available.

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Gathered Wood is Important Historically& in Some Developing Nations Today

Pct. of Total Energy from"Primary Biomass": 2007

Afghanistan 47.2Bangladesh 42.0

Brasil 33.3Cambodia 70.8China 2.8Ethiopia 92.5Haiti 39.6India 27.3Kenya 19.5Viet Nam 44.8

Source: United Nations

This Non-Commercial energy is generally ignored3

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How Else Did Humans Acquire EnergyBefore Fossil Fuels?

Mainly animals, wind, water

Note that these resources, like wood, varyconsiderably from region to region little woodin deserts

Comparing pre-industrial energy systems atvarious times, big differences based on

available resources,climate,level of technology,level of organization (rise/fall of empires),

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Intercultural communication, emulation, rivalry

International interdependence, rivalry, collaboration

Global/regionalregimes/agreements:

WTO, Kyoto, Nafta,

Copenhagen

Trans/multinationalcompanies

InternationalFinancialmarkets

InternationalEnergymarkets

G H

G

The Global Energy System

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Global Primary (Commercial) Energy:Shares of Coal, Gas Are Rising

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Courtesy of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012, BP p.l.c. Used with permission.

World consumptionMillion tonnes oil equivalent

010 11090807060504030201009998979695949392919089888786

13000

12000

11000

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Coal

HydroelectricityNuclear energyNatural gasOil

Renewables

World primary energy consumption grew by 2.5% in 2011, less than half the growth rate experienced in 2010 but close to the historical average. Growth decelerated forall regions and for all fuels. Oil remains the worlds leading fuel, accounting for 33.1% of global energy consumption, but this figure is the lowest share on record. Coalsmarket share of 30.3% was the highest since 1969.

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The U.S. Has Large Shares of WorldEnergy Production & (Esp.) Consumption

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Lots of Variation in Primary (Commercial)Energy per capita

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Courtesy of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012, BP p.l.c. Used with permission.

Consumption per capita 2011Tonnes oil equivalent

0-1.51.5-3.03.0-4.54.5-6.0> 6.0

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Energy use per capita per time

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What Factors Determine Differences inNational Energy Systems Today?

Available resources

Level of income/development

Economic activity mix (e.g., manufacturing) Climate

Government policies (e.g., subsidies)

Culture, habits, etc HISTORY (e.g., house sizes, city structures)

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Energy intensity

Source: EIA 13

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0

5,00010,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

B t u p e r

U S $ ( 2 0 0 0 )

Mexico MX United States USBrazil BR France FRGermany GM United Kingdom UKRussia RS Kenya KEBangladesh BG China CHIndia IN

Source: EIA

Energy/ GDP: A comparison

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Gasoline Prices: Taxes & Subsidies

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Review 2009 . Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2009, p. 320. 15

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Source: EIA

Electricity Prices: Industry v. Households

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But where do prices come from?

World prices for some inputs Local resources, costs

Costs of capital, labor Efficiency/productivity Taxes/subsidies

Environmental, other policies

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Electricity consumption per capita

Image by MIT OpenCourseWare. Source: Infographic from "Ranking America."

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

kwh/capita

Iceland

Norway

Qatar

Finland

Canada

Luxembourg

Kuwait

Sweden

United Arab Emirates

United StatesWorld

Top Ten Countries by Electricity Consumption

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Energy flow diagram for France in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .
https://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/473335.pdfhttps://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/473335.pdfhttps://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/473335.pdf

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Energy flow diagram for Norway in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .

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Energy flow diagram forGermany

in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .

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Energy flow diagram for Japan in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .
https://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/473335.pdfhttps://e-reports-ext.llnl.gov/pdf/473335.pdf

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Energy flow diagram for Mexico in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .

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Energy flow diagram for China in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .

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Energy flow diagram for India in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .

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Energy flow diagram for Saudi Arabia in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .

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Energy flow diagram for Kenya in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .

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Energy flow diagram for Cambodia in 2007 removed due to copyright restrictions.Source: LLNL-TR-473098: 2007 Estimated International Energy Flows .

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OECD Members: Generally Wealthy,17.5% of 2009 World Population,47.3% of 2009 World Energy Consumption

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 30

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Growth Expected Mainly in Non-OECD

In 2009, if world had OECD (US ) actual energy/capitaworld energy would be 2.7 (4.3 ) times actual feasible?

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011 . Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2011, p. 1. 31

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Non-OECD Growth Mainly in Asia:China + India


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The Recent, Future(?) Growth in Coal Use:China and India


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Growth in CO 2 Emissions Projected toCome Mainly from non-OECD Nations

In 2008, OECD (US ) accounted for 44.6% (19.3% ) of total, so

If world CO 2/capita were OECD (US) actual, world emissions

would have been 2.5 (4.3 ) times actual not good!Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011 . Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2011, p. 139. 34

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National energy systems are incredibly diverse,with many drivers of diversity not just resource

Growth in energy use, CO 2 likely to come mainly

from developing nations, esp. China If the world got rich using OECD/US models,

huge increases in energy, CO 2 emissions

Finding and moving to another growth path willbe a great challenge by any standard

s

Some Final Thoughts

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MIT OpenCourseWarehttp://ocw.mit.edu

15.031J / 14.43J / 21A.341J / 11.161J Energy Decisions, Markets, and PoliciesSpring 2012

For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms .

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mit15_031js12_lec2

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