oakland chamber of commerce 2014 mayoral poll

Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce Voter Survey Results

October 15, 2014

Pulse of Oakland Voter Survey 2014 | 2

Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100%.

Telephone survey of Likely November 2014 Voters in the City of Oakland

Research conducted jointly by Oakland pollsters EMC Research and FM3

Interviews conducted October 5-9, 2014

500 total interviews city wide

Margin of Error: + 4.4 percentage points

Interviewing conducted by trained, professional interviewers

Landlines and mobile phones included

Where appropriate, results compared with previous survey conducted by EMC Research in September 2013

Methodology


Voters feel things are improving in Oakland: Most feel the local economy in Oakland is getting better; quality of life ratings have improved; a plurality feel the city is on the right track, and most feel safer or as safe as they did a year or two ago.

At the same time, ratings of city leadership remain very weak. Both Mayor Quan and the City Council have job ratings below 20%.

Schools, safety and jobs remain voters’ top concerns.

An overwhelming majority of voters feel the City should be making it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland, and voters place a higher priority on helping local businesses than attracting national chains.

Key Findings: Voter Attitudes


21% of voters are undecided on their first choice vote, and another 34% have not yet allocated (and may not allocate) all three of their choices.

Mayor Quan’s unfavorable to favorable numbers remain stubbornly high, with a weak job rating and low vote total despite the increasingly positive sense about the state and direction of the City.

Bryan Parker, the OakPAC-endorsed candidate, trails the field, but has the most opportunity to improve given current name ID, especially in the wake of the SF Chronicle endorsement.

Libby Schaaf’s position is improving, with a 20 point improvement in name ID since last year, and a significant bump in support during this poll after receiving the endorsement of Governor Brown last week.

Having run City-wide twice already, Kaplan remains in the lead but has less room to improve her name ID; and her unfavorable rating is higher than any candidate other than the Mayor.

Key Findings: 2014 Mayoral Election

Voter Attitudes on Jobs and Economic Development


Perceptions of Oakland’s Economy

61%

15%7%

17%

Better Same Don't know Worse

More than 6 in 10 voters say the city’s economy is better than a year or two ago.

Q11. Thinking about Oakland’s economy today, would you say Oakland’s economy is better than a year or two ago, or would you say it is worse?


Perceptions of Economy by Council DistrictVoters in Districts 6 and 7 are least likely to feel the economy is improving.

Q11. Thinking about Oakland’s economy today, would you say Oakland’s economy is better than a year or two ago, or would you say it is worse?

61%

66%

68%

60%

66%

59%

52%

46%

15%

13%

17%

13%

15%

26%

13%

12%

7%

4%

7%

10%

3%

13%

16%

17%

17%

7%

17%

16%

15%

22%

26%

Overall

D1 (n=105)

D2 (n=75)

D3 (n=80)

D4 (n=85)

D5 (n=45)

D6 (n=60)

D7 (n=50)

Better Same (Don't know) Worse


Oakland Voter Priorities

59%

73%

58%

46%

43%

46%

42%

42%

36%

39%

32%

32%

35%

23%

19%

12%

18%

18%

17%

13%

17%

14%

19%

13%

13%

14%

8%

9%

13%

6%

14%

23%

22%

21%

20%

22%

20%

17%

23%

17%

16%

23%

91%

91%

90%

87%

82%

80%

79%

78%

75%

69%

68%

63%

59%

55%

Public safety and crime prevention

Improving the quality of public schools

Creating good-paying local jobs

Keeping parks safe and clean

Repairing and maintaining roads

Building housing that lower & middle-income people can afford

Balancing the city budget

Making it easier to start, run, & grow a business in Oakland

Improving city government services

Cleaning up blight, illegal dumping, and graffiti

Improving public transportation

Providing recreational opportunities

Protecting residents from increased fees and taxes

Building more housing

7 Extremely Important 6 5 Total Important

Voters rate public safety, schools and jobs as the most important priorities for the city.

Using a scale from 1 to 7 where 1 is not at all important and 7 is extremely important, how important do you feel each of the following should be in Oakland right now? (Split Sample, N=250)


Improving Oakland’s business climateAn overwhelming majority of voters across all demographic groups believe the city should

be making it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.

Q13c-Q13d. (SPLIT SAMPLE B ONLY) Next, do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements?

“The city should make it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.”

88%

88%

90%

93%

83%

96%

83%

86%

95%

78%

7%

5%

6%

1%

13%

2%

9%

14%

5%

8%

5%

7%

4%

5%

4%

2%

8%

13%

Overall

Men 18-49

Women 18-49

Men 50+

Women 50+

Black/African-American

White

Hispanic

Asian

Other

Agree Don't know Disagree


Improving Oakland’s business climateAcross the city, voters feel strongly that the city should make it easier for businesses.

Q13c-Q13d. (SPLIT SAMPLE B ONLY) Next, do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements?

“The city should make it easier to start and grow a business in Oakland.”

88%

83%

92%

83%

88%

89%

94%

95%

7%

17%

5%

7%

3%

6%

2%

5%

3%

9%

8%

5%

5%

5%

Overall

D1 (n=105)

D2 (n=75)

D3 (n=80)

D4 (n=85)

D5 (n=45)

D6 (n=60)

D7 (n=50)

Agree Don't know Disagree


Attitudes toward economic development policiesMore than 3 in 4 voters support requiring affordable housing in new development; most voters also support tax incentives to attract businesses and allowing more chain stores.

Q14a-Q14c. Next, I’d like to get your opinion on some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose…

53%

38%

37%

25%

32%

25%

5%

7%

5%

10%

15%

17%

7%

9%

15%

Requiring affordable housingbe part of any new housing

development project

Offering tax incentives toencourage companies to move

to Oakland

Allowing more national retailstores to locate in Oakland

Stronglyfavor

Somewhatfavor

(Don't know) Somewhatoppose

Stronglyoppose


Priorities for Business DevelopmentVoters want the city to focus on supporting local businesses over national chains; more voters want to see the city focus on neighborhood stores than downtown, but both are

priorities.

Q15a-Q15i. Now I’d like to ask about your opinion on priorities for business development in Oakland. For each of the following items, please tell me how high a priority that item should be for the City of Oakland. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means the lowest priority and 7 means the highest priority?

56%

50%

49%

44%

37%

41%

31%

16%

20%

21%

18%

19%

20%

15%

17%

8%

14%

17%

20%

18%

22%

18%

20%

19%

90%

88%

87%

81%

79%

74%

68%

43%

Supporting local Oakland-ownedstores

Supporting existing stores in localneighborhoods

Promoting art, music and culture

Promoting new downtown retail

Supporting food and restaurants

Attracting new tech jobs

Building high quality housing

Introducing big national chains

7 6 5 Total Priority


Support for neighborhood stores by Council DistrictVoters across Oakland want to see the City do more to support neighborhood stores.


50%

51%

44%

49%

54%

53%

43%

54%

21%

22%

27%

18%

22%

20%

27%

9%

17%

20%

19%

13%

16%

12%

15%

25%

88%

93%

90%

80%

92%

85%

85%

88%

Overall

City Council District 1 (n=105)







7 6 5 Total Priority“Supporting existing stores in local neighborhoods.”


New downtown retail by Council districtVoters in D4, D6 and D7 are most likely to want the city to promote downtown retail.


44%

40%

33%

46%

51%

42%

48%

55%

19%

26%

21%

15%

26%

11%

10%

11%

18%

17%

28%

15%

8%

20%

24%

15%

81%

83%

82%

76%

85%

73%

82%

81%

Overall








7 6 5 Total Priority“Promoting new downtown retail.”


Support for new housing by Council districtVoters in D2 are least interested in new housing; voters in D7 are most likely to want the

City to focus on new housing.


31%

32%

18%

28%

36%

30%

30%

50%

17%

18%

23%

17%

17%

14%

11%

13%

20%

27%

23%

15%

22%

15%

19%

13%

68%

77%

64%

60%

75%

59%

60%

76%

Overall








7 6 5 Total Priority“Building high quality housing.”


Oakland Culture & Dining ParticipationMost voters have dined downtown more than twice in the last year.

Q16a-Q16e. Next, in the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities.

31%

17%

23%

6%

7%

38%

40%

35%

25%

19%

20%

27%

17%

24%

28%

89%

84%

75%

55%

54%

Shopped or dined in downtownOakland

Shopped or dined in Jack LondonSquare

Shopped or dined in Uptown

Attended Oakland’s First Fridays Art Festival

Attended either an Oakland A’s or Oakland Raiders game

More than 12 times 3-12 times 1-2 times Total Attend


Oakland Culture & Dining Participation Over TimeVoters report more shopping and dining visits compared to last year.

Q16a-Q16e. Next, in the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities.

6%

3%

17%

13%

23%

21%

31%

29%

25%

18%

40%

38%

35%

32%

38%

40%

24%

26%

27%

26%

17%

16%

20%

15%

55%

47%

84%

77%

75%

68%

89%

84%

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

Firs

t Fr

iday

sJa

ck L

on

do

nU

pto

wn

Do

wn

tow

nMore than 12 times 3-12 times 1-2 times Total Attend

Attitudes Toward Oakland


Direction of Oakland

71%68% 70%

58%

69%

49% 48%

25%20%

23%23%26%

17%

27%33%

36%

45%

20% 19% 17%

26%

19%

33%38%

58%63%

54% 55% 54%59%

47%

50%46%

38%

Oct99

Feb00

Mar01

Jun01

Jul01

May02

Jun02

Mar05

Apr09

Nov09

Jan10

Apr12

Sep12

Aug13

Sep13

Mar14

Jul14

Oct14

Right direction Wrong track

Voters have grown more optimistic about Oakland over the past year.

Q2. Do you think things in the City of Oakland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Source: Previous data from past EMC polling in Oakland


Oakland’s Quality of LifeRatings of Oakland “as a place to live” have also improved over the last year.

Q10. How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair, or poor place to live?

35%

21%

43%

49%

1%

2%

16%

20%

5%

8%

2014

2013

Excellent Good (Don't know) Only Fair Poor


Rating Quality of Life by Council DistrictVoters in D6 and D7 are least likely to say Oakland is an excellent place to live.

Q10. How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair, or poor place to live?

35%

44%

39%

35%

31%

44%

25%

17%

43%

39%

41%

44%

54%

24%

48%

45%

1%

1%

4%

2%

16%

11%

17%

16%

12%

22%

18%

29%

5%

6%

3%

3%

2%

9%

5%

7%

Overall

D1

D2

D3

D4

D5

D6

D7



Feelings of Safety 35% say they feel safer in Oakland than a year or two ago, and 35% feel safer in their

neighborhood.

Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland / your neighborhood than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?

35%

35%

37%

39%

2%

4%

25%

23%

In Oakland

In yourneighborhood

Safer Same (Don't know) Less Safe


Trend: Perceptions of Safety in Oakland

24%20%

13% 12% 13%

35%35% 34%

51%47%

55%

25%

Nov-09 Jan-10 Apr-12 Sep-12 13-Sep Oct-14

Safer Less Safe

Perceptions of safety have improved sharply.

Next, would you say you feel safer today in Oakland than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe? (Split Sample, N=250)


Feelings of Neighborhood Safety by Council DistrictVoters in D5 and D7 are most likely to say their neighborhoods have become less safe.

(Split Sample, N=250) Next, would you say you feel safer today in your neighborhood than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?

35%

38%

30%

33%

37%

39%

33%

36%

39%

36%

51%

36%

41%

32%

48%

20%

4%

3%

3%

6%

16%

23%

24%

16%

25%

22%

29%

19%

28%

Overall

D1

D2

D3

D4

D5

D6

D7

Safer Same (Don't know) Less Safe


Job Ratings: Mayor and City CouncilDespite optimism about the city’s direction, job ratings of the Mayor and City Council

remain weak.

Q5a-Q5b. Next, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor... How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing?

4%

1%

15%

16%

3%

9%

42%

53%

35%

21%

Oakland Mayor JeanQuan

Oakland City Council



Job Ratings: Mayor and City Council Over TimeJob ratings for Mayor and Council are essentially unchanged since 2013.

Q5a-Q5b. Next, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor... How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing?

19%

20%

17%

14%

3%

4%

9%

11%

77%

77%

74%

75%

2014

2013

2014

2013

Oak

lan

d M

ayo

r Je

anQ

uan

Oak

lan

d C

ity

Co

un

cil

Excellent/Good (Don't know) Only Fair/Poor

2014 Mayoral Election: Background


Quan Favorable Rating Trend

35%

51%

36%

24% 34%

12%17%

53%

62%57%

Nov-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-13 Oct-14

Favorable Unfavorable

Mayor Quan’s favorable rating has improved since last year but a solid majority continue to hold negative opinions of her.

Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… Mayor Jean Quan


Incumbent Vital Signs: Jean QuanOn all key measures, Quan remains weak for an incumbent.

Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland / your neighborhood than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe?

34%19% 25% 28%

8%

3%

8%

21%

57%

77%67%

51%

Quan Favorable Quan Job Rating Quan Re-elect Initial Vote

FavorsChallengers

Neutral

Favors Quan

(Vote Quanwith any choice)

(Undecided 1st Choice)

(Vote for Challengers

only)


Mayoral Candidates – Name IDKaplan and Quan are best known by a wide margin.

Q4a-Q4i. Now I’m going to read you a list of people and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.

91%

72%

52%

49%

42%

36%

32%

6%

13%

18%

18%

18%

20%

20%

98%

86%

69%

68%

61%

57%

52%

Mayor Jean Quan

City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan

City Council Member Libby Schaaf

Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel

Government Law Professor JoeTuman

City Auditor Courtney Ruby

Businessperson and UniversityTrustee Bryan Parker

Hard Name ID (Fav + Unfav) Soft Name ID (Can't rate) Total Name ID


Mayoral Candidates - FavorablesKaplan has significant unfavorable rating; Schaaf has the strongest favorable to

unfavorable ratio.

Q4a-Q4i. Now I’m going to read you a list of people and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so.

50%

44%

35%

34%

33%

27%

21%

28%

48%

51%

8%

58%

63%

68%

22%

8%

14%

57%

9%

9%

11%

2.3

5.5

2.5

0.6

3.7

3.0

1.9

City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan

City Council Member Libby Schaaf

Civil Rights Attorney Dan Siegel

Mayor Jean Quan

Government Law Professor Joe Tuman

City Auditor Courtney Ruby

Businessperson and University TrusteeBryan Parker

Favorable Can't Rate/Never Heard

Unfavorable Fav/UnfavRatio


Kaplan Favorable Rating Trend

32%

44%

54%50%

8%13% 13%

22%

Nov-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Oct-14


Kaplan’s unfavorable has risen as she has become better known.

Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan


Schaaf Favorable Rating Trend

23% 26%

44%

5% 7% 8%

Apr-12 Sep-13 Oct-14


Schaaf name ID and favorables have spiked since September 2013.

Please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of… City Council Member Libby Schaaf

2014 Mayoral Election: Vote


Ranked Choice Voting21% of voters are completely undecided in the mayoral election, and 55% in total have

not yet allocated all 3 of their votes.

38% of the total possible vote in the mayoral election remains up for grabs.

21%

15%

19%

45%

0 candidates

1 candidate

2 candidates

3 candidates

Mean: 1.88 choices per

voter

Number of candidates chosen in Ranked Choice Vote


Mayoral Ranked Choice VoteKaplan leads in the first choice vote and total vote. Schaaf narrowly trails Quan in first

choice vote, but leads her in total vote.

21%

14%

17%

8%

9%

4%

4%

15%

13%

7%

8%

6%

5%

4%

7%

6%

4%

7%

5%

5%

5%

43%

33%

28%

23%

20%

14%

13%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

0%

Rebecca Kaplan

Libby Schaaf

Jean Quan

Joe Tuman

Dan Siegel

Courtney Ruby

Bryan Parker

Charles Williams

Eric Wilson

Jason Anderson

Saied Karamooz

Peter Liu

Pat McCullough

Ken Houston

Nancy Sidebotham

FirstChoice

SecondChoice

ThirdChoice

Total Vote

Mayoral vote asked in actual ballot order and using full ballot titles for each candidate.


Mayoral Vote – RCV ResultsKaplan beats Schaaf in the ranked choice vote results.

Mayoral vote ranked choice vote distribution

Candidate Initial Top 7 Top 6 Top 5 Top 4 Top 3 Final

Kaplan 20.9 27.9 28.7 30.5 33.0 40.7 58.8

Schaaf 14.3 18.4 19.6 20.9 27.0 30.9 41.3

Quan 17.1 22.0 23.0 23.4 24.9 28.4

Siegel 9.0 11.8 12.4 13.6 15.1

Tuman 7.6 10.0 10.7 11.6

Parker 4.0 5.1 5.6

Ruby 3.7 4.8

Undecided/Other 23.4

Sample Size remainingafter eliminated votes 500 389 384 378 362 343 300

Margin of error +4.4% +5.0% +5.0% +5.0% +5.1% +5.3% +5.7%


Mayoral Vote Shift During PollSchaaf moves into second place on the news of her endorsement from Governor Brown.

20%

9%

18%

10%

9%

3%

4%

39%

26%

29%

23%

20%

12%

16%

Kaplan

Schaaf

Quan

Tuman

Siegel

Ruby

Parker

First Choice Total Vote

Mayoral vote asked in actual ballot order and using full ballot titles for each candidate.October 5-6 (n=186)October 7-9 (n=314)

22%

17%

17%

6%

9%

4%

4%

45%

37%

27%

23%

19%

14%

11%

Kaplan

Schaaf

Quan

Tuman

Siegel

Ruby

Parker

First Choice Total Vote

October 5-6 Results October 7-9 Results

RCV result: Kaplan 57% Quan 43%

RCV result: Kaplan 57% Schaaf 43%


Mayoral IRV Simulation: Top 7

If the election were held today, who would be you first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were…

5% 5%10% 12%

22%18%

28%

Ruby Parker Tuman Siegel Quan Schaaf Kaplan




5% 5%10% 12%

22% 18%28%

1%1% 1%

1%1%

1%

6%11% 12%

23%20%

29%





6%11% 12%

23% 20%29%

1% 1%

0%1%

2%

12% 14%

23% 21%

31%





12% 14%23% 21%

31%2%

2% 6%

3%

15%

25% 27%33%





15%25% 27%

33%

4% 4%

8%28% 31%

41%



Mayoral IRV Simulation: Final


28% 31%41%

10%

18%41%

59%


Oakland Ballot Measures


Attitudes Toward Property TaxesMost voters think property taxes are too high; voters in D6 and D7 are most likely to agree.

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Property taxes in Oakland are too high.

53%

45%

48%

40%

61%

57%

63%

70%

17%

22%

17%

29%

7%

14%

9%

16%

30%

33%

35%

31%

32%

28%

28%

14%

Overall

D1 (n=105)

D2 (n=75)

D3 (n=80)

D4 (n=85)

D5 (n=45)

D6 (n=60)

D7 (n=50)

Agree (Don't know) Disagree


Measure Z Vote

Yes, approve54%

No, reject27% Undecided

19%

Yes, approve No, reject Undecided

Support for Measure Z falls short of 2/3.(On the ballot, the text of Measure Z begins with the wording “without increasing current tax rates…” Recent public

polling which tested the measure’s full ballot language showed support at 75%.)

Q3a. Next, there are several measures on the ballot in the City of Oakland this November. If the election were held today, would you vote “yes” to approve or “no” to reject each of the following measures…

Would you vote yes to approve or no to reject:Measure Z, which would renew an annual parcel tax and parking tax to fund police staffing and violence prevention and intervention programs.


Measure N Vote

Yes, approve59%

No, reject23%

Undecided18%

Yes, approve No, reject Undecided

Support for measure N is also less than the 2/3 required.

Q3b. Next, there are several measures on the ballot in the City of Oakland this November. If the election were held today, would you vote “yes” to approve or “no” to reject each of the following measures…Measure N, which would establish an annual parcel tax of $120 dedicated to school programs that prepare students for colleges and real-world jobs, and reduce dropout rates.


Likely Voter Demographics

46% Men54% Women

Length of Time in Oakland

Less than 2 years (4%)

2-5 years (13%)

6-10 years (14%)

11-20 years (18%)

More than 20 years

(51%)

Work in Oakland – 29%Employed elsewhere – 24%

Unemployed – 8%Retired – 26%Other – 12%

68% Democrats6% Republicans

26x% NPP/Others

47% are 18-49 years old28% are 50-64

25% are over 65

White – 49%African-American – 28%

Latino – 8%Chinese – 4%

Other Asian/Pacific Islander – 3%Other – 5%

Contacts

Alex [email protected]

510.550.8920

David [email protected]

510.451.9521

Contactss

Barbara [email protected]

510. 874.4800

mailto:[email protected]



oakland chamber of commerce 2014 mayoral poll

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