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The Public’s Take – The State of the Union January 28, 2014

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  • The Publics Take The State of the Union January 28, 2014
  • TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide 1. A Look Back at 2013....2 2. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future.8 3. Perceptions of Obama & Congress .14 4. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward....26 1
  • Year in Review: 2013
  • 2013: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKET US Consumer Confidence 58.4 Jan-13 68 61.9 Feb-13 Mar-13 69 74.3 Apr-13 May-13 82.1 81 81.8 80.2 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 72.4 72 78.1 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 3 Sources:
  • THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS THEN January 2013 NOW December 2013 Unemployment Rate 7.9% 6.7% Inflation Rate 1.7% 1.2% 13,412.60 16,576.66 Consumer Confidence Index 58.4 78.1 U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25% 231.198 234.582 INDICATOR Stock Market (DJIA) Consumer Price Index (CPI) 4 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
  • THE YEAR IN REVIEW PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY Beginning of 2013 100% End of 2013 80% 60% 40% 64% 66% 57% 30% 61% 30% 20% 0% Country on Wrong Track Economy is Getting Worse* Economy is Bad* Compared with other years, do you think that 2013 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States? One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst 1% 6% 23% 44% 26% 5 Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll
  • THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy 60% Beginning of 2013 55% 50% 45% 40% End of 2013 52% 49% 43% 39% 35% 6 Source: NBC/WSJ survey
  • RATINGS DROP ACROSS THE BOARD IN 2013 Government Shutdown in October was leading factor in these declines. 7 Source: HuffPost Pollster
  • Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future 8
  • MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUE TO FEEL THE NATION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK WRONG TRACK 61.9% The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasnt topped 50 in about a decade RIGHT DIRECTION 29.2% 9 Sources: Aggregate Data, as of January 27, 2014
  • EXPECTATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY JUMP AL L OVER THE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF 2013 During the next twelve months, do you think that the nations economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? 50% 42% 40% 30% 20% 10% 38% 46% 41% 45% 38% 35% 27% 36% 33% 19% 19% 20% 42% 45% 32% 34% 38% 32% 31% 33% 28% 25% 18% 18% 0% 49% 47% 48% 18% 21% 46% Will stay 42% 42% the same 27% 38% 24% 17% 34% 29% Will get better 24% Will get worse 23% 9% 10 Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 4-8, 2013
  • GOVERNMENT ITSELF STILL CITED AS TOP U.S. PROBLEM What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? 11 Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2014
  • MAJORITIES EXPECT DEBT AND HEALTH CARE COSTS TO GET WORSE IN NEXT YEAR For each, please tell me if you expect things to be better in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months? Better About the Same 41% The housing market 32% 40% Job growth Health care costs 22% America's economic standing in the world 16% 27% 41% 20% The size of the national debt 22% 32% 33% Overall strength of the economy Worse 15% 25% 61% 37% 19% 41% 63% 12 Sources: Bloomberg News National Poll, December 6-9, 2013
  • BUSH CONTINUES TO BE BLAMED FOR COUNTRYS CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS Who do you think is more responsible for the countrys current economic problems Barack Obama or George W. Bush? 54% 54% 51% 49% Obama 34% 29% Jan-12 May-12 50% Bush 32% Aug-12 36% Oct-12 38% Dec-13 13 Sources: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, December 12-15, 2013
  • Perceptions of Obama & Congress 14
  • OBAMA STARTS 2014 WITH A JOB APPROVAL RATING IN THE LOW 40s Obama Overall Job Approval DISAPPROVE 52.9% APPROVE 42.1% 15 Sources: Aggregate Data, as of January 27, 2014
  • OBAMAS JOB APPROVAL DECLINED STEADILY THROUGHOUT 2013 % Approve, based on monthly averages in Gallup Daily tracking 52% 51% 48% 49% 49% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 41% 41% 16 Source: Gallup Poll Data
  • OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL BELOW HIS PREDECESSOR HEADING INTO 6th YEAR 70% 64% 60% 60% 50% Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in January of Second Year of 2nd Term 58% 43% 42% 40% 26% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reagan (1986) Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data Clinton (1998) Eisenhower G.W. Bush (1958) (2006) Obama (2014) Weekly Approval Rating Average Jan 20 - 26 Nixon (1974) 17
  • THE THREATENING THIRTIES Presidential Party Performance in Midterms When President Has Sub-40% Approval Rating President Year Truman 1946 Truman 1950 G.W. Bush 2006 Approval at midterm election* 33% 39% 38% Party midterm performance Senate House -12 -6 -6 -55 -29 -30 Note: Approval rating result from last Gallup poll prior to midterm election. Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data 18
  • OBAMA ON THE ISSUES Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling? Approve 60% 34% 61% 35% The federal Health care budget Disapprove 58% 39% 51% 41% 52% 41% The economy Foreign policy Terrorism 19 Source: Quinnipiac University Survey, January 4-7, 2014
  • NEW HEALTH CARE LAW IS TOP ISSUE IN SHAPING OPINION OF OBAMA Which, if any, of the following issues the president has had to deal with this year has been most important in shaping your opinion of Barack Obama? The new health care law 58% The economy 25% The government shutdown 23% Issues in Syria and Iran Domestic issues like immigration and guns Issues with the NSA and privacy Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 4-8, 2013 Up to two responses accepted 16% 14% 9% Note: None, Other, and not sure answers not shown 20
  • 65% OF AMERICANS DISSATISFIED WITH HOW GOVERNMENT SYSTEM WORKS Please say whether you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with our system of government and how well it works. 21 Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2014
  • THEREFORE, CONGRESS BEGINS 2014 WITH 13% APPROVAL Annual average for 2013, 14%, was lowest in Gallup history 22 Source: Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013
  • NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVES POSITIVE MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE Democrats in Congress Approve 34% Disapprove 60% Unsure 6% Do approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are doing their job? Republicans in Congress Approve 25% Disapprove 71% Unsure 5% Do approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are doing their job? 23 Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 8-12, 2014
  • MOST THINK GRIDLOCK IN DC WILL AFFECT GROWTH; GOP SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY TO BE BLAMED Do you think the political gridlock in Washington will or will not affect economic growth in the U.S. in the next year? Who do you blame more for whats gone wrong in Washington President Obama and the Democrats in Congress or the Republicans in Congress? 43% 37% Will affect economic growth 78% Will not affect economic growth 17% Not sure 5% Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, December 6-9, 2013 Approve 24% Disapprove 71% 20% No opinion 4% President Republicans Obama and in Congress Democrats in Congress Not sure 24
  • HALF SAY AMERICAS SYSTEM OF DEMOCRACY NEEDS EITHER A LOT OF CHANGES OR A COMPLETE OVERHAUL All in all, how well or badly do you think the system of democracy in America works these days Would you say it? Works well and needs no changes 5% 42% Works well but needs some changes 41% Needs a lot of changes Needs to be completely changed Source: AP-NORC Center Poll, December 12-16, 2013 10% 51% Note: Refused answers not shown 25
  • Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward 26
  • ECONOMY, JOBS DOMINATE PUBLIC AGENDA I'd like to ask you about priorities for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or should it not be done. 27 Source: Pew Research Center, January 15-19, 2014
  • ECONOMY, JOBS, TERRORISM RANK HIGH ACROSS PARTISAN GROUPS Democrats Top Priority Strengthening the nations economy 85% Improving the job situation 81% Improving the educational system 80% Defending the country from future terrorist attacks 70% Reducing health care costs 67% Republicans Top Priority Defending the country from future terrorist attacks 81% Reducing the budget deficit 80% Strengthening the nations economy 75% Taking steps to make the Social Security system financially sound 72% Improving the job situation 66% 28 Source: Pew Research Center, January 15-19, 2014
  • BUT AMERICANS EXPRESS LITTLE HOPE THAT FEDERAL GOVT WILL MAKE PROGRESS ON THE NATIONS BIGGEST PROBLEMS How confident are you in the ability of the FEDERAL government to make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2014? 40% 70% Not at all / Not very confident 30% 23% 3% Not at all confident Not very confident Moderately confident 1% Very confident Extremely confident 29 Source: AP-NORC Center Poll, December 12-16, 2013
  • VERY FEW FEEL HEALTH CARE LAW SHOULD BE KEPT IN PLACE AS IS Which comes closest to your view about the 2010 health care law? The law is working well and should be kept in place as is. There are some good things in the law, but some changes are needed to make it work better. OR, The law has so much wrong with it that it needs to be repealed entirely. Should be kept as is 6% Changes are needed Needs to be repealed Source: CBS News Poll, January 17-21, 2014 56% 34% Note: DK/NA answers not shown 30
  • VARIOUS POLLS SHOW SUPPORT FOR EXTENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS ABC/WashPost: Congress is considering whether or not again to extend the period in which people whove lost their jobs can get unemployment benefits. (Supporters say this will help those who can't find work.) (Opponents say this adds too much to the federal budget deficit.) Do you think Congress should or should not approve another extension of unemployment benefits? Should Should not No opinion 60% 37% 3% Should Should not Depends/ DK 65% 29% 7% Favor [NET] Oppose [NET] DK/REF 63% 34% 3% January 20-23, 2014 CBS News: Do you think the government should extend unemployment benefits for people who are currently out of work, or shouldn't it do that? January 17-21, 2014 Pew: Thinking about some government policies, do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose a one year extension of federal unemployment benefits for people who have been out of work for a long time? January 15-19, 2014 31 Source: Various Polls
  • STRONG SUPPORT FOR RAISING FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGE to $10.10 As you may know, the federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour. Do you favor or oppose raising the minimum wage to $10.10? Large majorities of Democrats and independents favor a hike in the minimum wage, while Republicans are split: Favor 72% Favor Oppose 26% Oppose Reps 48% 51% Dems 88% 10% Inds 75% 24% No opinion, 1% 32 Source: CBS News Poll, January 17-21, 2014
  • MOST WANT SOME TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN DESPITE STRONG CRITICISM OF THE WAR On another subject, all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war in Afghanistan has been worth fighting, or not? 66% 55% 41% 30% Worth fighting In the year ahead, would you rather have the United States remove all U.S. forces from Afghanistan or remove most U.S. forces from Afghanistan but keep some there for training and antiinsurgency operations? Not worth fighting Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, December 12-15, 2013 Remove all Remove most, U.S. forces keep some Note: No opinion answers not shown 33
  • AMERICANS DIVIDED ON ALLOWING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS TO BE GIVEN RIGHT TO LIVE AND WORK HERE LEGALLY Do you think undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States should or should not be given the right to live and work here legally? Should 49% Should not 49% No opinion, 3% Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, January 20-23, 2014 34
  • GPG Research GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns. GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPGs research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt ([email protected]) 35