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บรรยายพิเศษ ทิศทางอุตสาหกรรมยานยนต์ไทยในอนาคต The future direction of Thailand automotive industry โดย นางจุรีรัตน ์สุวรรณวิทยา รองผู้อ านวยการสถาบันยานยนต ์

เอกสารประกอบการสัมมนา “อนาคตของยานยนต์ไฮบริดและไฟฟา้ในประเทศไทย” วันศุกร์ที่ 29 มีนาคม 2556 เวลา 08.30 - 12.00 น. ณ ห้องจูปิเตอร์ 4 อาคารชาเลนเจอร์ อมิแพค เมืองทองธานี

“The Future Direction of Thailand

”

of Thailand Automotive Industry ”

by

Mrs. Chureerat Suwanvithaya, Vice President of Thailand Automotive Institute

Friday, 29th March, 2013 @ Challenger Hall, Impact, Muangthongthani

1. Current situation and positioning of Thailand Automotive Industry

in Global and ASEAN

2. Competitiveness of Thailand Automotive Industry

3. Global trend of automotive technology

OutlineOutline

3. Global trend of automotive technology

4. Thailand Automotive Industry Development Master Plan 2012-2016

2

11. Current situation and positioning of Thailand . Current situation and positioning of Thailand

Automotive Industry in Global and ASEANAutomotive Industry in Global and ASEANAutomotive Industry in Global and ASEANAutomotive Industry in Global and ASEAN

3

World Automobile Production

2012 = 80.4 mil.units(CV 25%: PC 75%)

0.4%

-12%Hamburger crisis

Source: OICA & FOURIN

4

Global Automobile Production Ranking 2012

5

Global Automobile Sale Ranking 2012

Source: FOURIN 6

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

K (1,000) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011CAGR 7%

Overview of ASEAN Automotive industries

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Indonesia Malaysia Phillipines Thailand Vietnam ASEAN

CAGR 20%

CAGR 5%

CAGR 7%

CAGR 3%

CAGR 8%

Source: AAF (analyzed by TAI)

7

Current Situation of Thailand Automotive Industry

Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)8

Thailand Automobile Production Capacity

2.722.33 2.39

Decreased from Flood in Thailand1.88

1.681.641.57

1.27

Units

1.27


Assembler Capacity 2012Honda 1,400,000

Yamaha 600,000

Thailand Motorcycle Production Capacity

Suzuki 450,000

Kawasaki 150,000

Total 2,600,000


Proportion of Type of vehicles in Thailand Production

Passenger Car34%

Bus/Truck1%SUV

7%

Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI)

Double-Cab37%

Pickup 1 ton24%

11

Thailand Vehicle Export to the World 2011-2012

17%

30%

10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

200000

250000

300000

350000

(1,000 units)

Jan-Dec’ 12 = 1,026,671 UnitsJan-Dec’ 11 = 735,627 Units

Growth = 40%

0%

-18%-12%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

0

50000

100000

150000

Asia Oceania Middle East Africa Europe Central & South America

Jan-Dec'11 Jan-Dec'12 Growth


Export-Import of Thailand Automotive Industry 2012

2011 2012 Growth (Jan-Dec) (Jan-Dec) (%)

Export 780,944 1,010,402 29-Car 342,880 494,350 44-Motorcycle 24,783 35,486 43

Unit : M.B.

-Motorcycle 24,783 35,486 43-Auto parts 413,281 480,566 16Import 395,416 669,113 69-Car 51,521 73,090 42-Motorcycle 1,305 4,009 207-Auto parts 342,590 592,015 73Export > Import 385,528 341,289 -11

Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 13

22. Competitiveness of Thailand . Competitiveness of Thailand

Automotive IndustryAutomotive IndustryAutomotive IndustryAutomotive Industry

14

Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

THAILAND Euro3 Euro4

INDONESIA Euro2 Euro 4 (Tentative)

MALAYSIAGasoline Euro2 Euro 3 (Tentative)

Euro 4 (Tentative)Diesel Euro 1 Euro 2 (Tentative)

Emission standard

Diesel Euro 1 Euro 2 (Tentative)

PHILIPPINES Euro2 Euro 4 (Tentative)

VIETNAM Euro2 Euro4 (Under Study)

SINGAPOREGasoline Euro2 Euro 4 (Tentative)

Diesel Euro4 Euro 5 (Tentative)


500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

18,20

43,30041,100

41,15041,900

18,20

43,30041,100

41,15041,900

18,20

43,30041,100

41,15041,900

18,200

43,30041,100

41,15041,900

Human resources development

483,000 501,200 544,500 585,600 627,100 669,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

No. of Labours

18,20018,20018,200

Incresing Labours


Top 100 of 2010 Global Suppliers Active in Thailand

2. Denso4. Aisin Seiki

13.Yazaki15.Sumitomo

46.Bridgestone49.Tokai Rika57.Showa61.Mitsuba

1. Robert Bosch3. Continental6. Faurecia7. Johnson Control

44. Federal-Mogul47. Michelin50. GKN Driveline51. Hella

Japanese Global Suppliers Other Global Suppliers

Top 100 Global suppliers investment in Thailand

15.Sumitomo16.Toyota Boshoku18.CalsonicKansei19.JTEKT20.Hitachi28.Toyoda Gosei33.NTN34.NSK35.Mitsubishi39.NHK Spring40.Koito41.TS Tech43.Takata

61.Mitsuba

66.Asahi Glass72.Stanley74. Akebono Brake82.Sanden

84. F-Tech92.Alpine94.Pioneer98. Omron

28/29 Companies

7. Johnson Control

8. ZF11. TRW12. Delphi14. Lear

17. BASF 21. Valeo22. Visteon23. Autoliv

25. Mahle27. Dana31. BorgWarner36.Teneco

51. Hella52. Goodyear

56. Grupo Antolin58. Bayer59. TI Automotive

65. Draexlmaier67. American Axle73. Rieter Auto.84. F-Tech

86. Hayes Lammerz93. 3M

30/71 companies


Competitiveness benchmarking ofThailand, Indonesia, Malaysia

Source: Boston consulting group 18

Thailand Automobile production & share in ASEAN 2012


Overview of ASEAN Automotive industries

Thailand• Population : 67 Million• Production 2011 : 1,457,795 Units• Sales 2011 : 796,123 Units

Philippines• Population : 92 Million• Production 2011 : 64,906 Units• Sales 2011 : 141,616 Units

Vietnam• Population : 87 Million• Production 2011 : 100,465 Units• Sales 2011 : 109,660 Units• Product Champion : Motorcycle

• Sales 2011 : 796,123 Units• Product Champion : 1-ton Pick up

Indonesia• Population : 240 Million• Production 2011 : 837,948 Units• Sales 2011 : 894,164 Units• Product Champion : SUV and MPV, Big Truck

Malaysia• Population : 28 Million • Production 2011 : 533,515 Units• Sales 2011 : 600,123 Units• Product Champion : Passenger Car

ASEAN Key Indicators• Population 2011 : 608.8 million • GDP 2011 : 2,153 Billion (US$)• GDP 2011 Growth rate : 4.4% • Car Production 2011 : 2.99 million units• Car Total Sales 2011 : 2.59 million units

20

Increasing

demand

High domestic demand

Increasing

capacity

ASEAN Automotive Matrix

ASEAN Countries’ Positioning in Automotive Industry

No Production Base Strong Production Base

Low Domesticdemand


SWOT Analysis of Thailand Automotive IndustryStrength1. World Production base (Rank No.

10 in 2012)2. Supplier’s long experience 3. Competitive supply chain4. High skill labor5. Competitive in geographical area 6. Government policy

Weakness1. Inadequate of Testing , R& D

center for development2. Cost of labor in creasing 3. Trend to lack of skill labor in future4. Few number in outbound

investment 5. Know-how transfer

Opportunity Threat

22

Opportunity1. Investment confidence with

government policy2. New Testing, R&D center investment3. FDI in new products 4. Growth and development of supplier

from Thailand to be the world production base and hub of ASEAN

5. AEC 2015 increase free flow of products, labor, trade and investment

6. Development of alternative/renewable energy vehicles

Threat1. Uncertainty from the climate

change2. NTBs/NTMs increasing in

competition3. Development of the competitor in

advanced technology (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia)

4. Change of new automotive technology


33. Global Trend of Automotive Technology. Global Trend of Automotive Technology

23

Total CO2 emissions are not decreasing

Need to monitoring and control CO2 in the future

Automotive Industry TrendsEnvironmental Issues

Carbon monoxide

Carbon dioxide

24

EU vehicles toxic emission down but CO2 still a challenging

Source: Automotive Foundation (FIA)

Nitrogen oxide

Volatile organic compound

Sulfur dioxide

Automotive Industry Trends(Environmental Issues)

Source : International Energy Agency (IEA) 25

Global Vehicle Safety Regulation Improvement

Automotive Industry Trends(Safety Issues)

Active safety standardBrakes (Electronic stability program, ESP) etc.

26

Source : Global Trends 2020 and Beyond Automobile Use, Environment & Safety Challenges, FIA

Foundation, June 2011

Passive safety standardCrash test (Design crumple zones) etc.

Intelligent Transportation System (ITS)

Motor vehicle world in use forecast to 2045

Motor vehicle world in use forecast to 2045

27

Source: David ward (2011)

MalaysiaGreen Initiative

IndonesiaNew incentives for Small passenger car (not exceeding 1,000 cc.)

ASEAN countries focus on new technology

ASEAN Countries’ Policy in Automotive industry

28

VietnamMotorcycle andLow cost productionbase

PhilippinesTransmission production


Opportunity and Threat from FTAs

AFTA

ACFTA

TAFTA

JTEPA

ASEAN

ASEAN-China

Thai-Australia

Thai -Japan

Opportunity- Liberalize- Market Expansion- Free flow of goods, - labor and services

Thailand and ASEAN now has signed total 8 FTAs :

29

JTEPA

TIFTA

AKFTA

AIFTA

AANZFTA

Thai -Japan

Thai-India

ASEAN-South Korea

ASEAN-India

ASEAN-Australia /New Zealand

Threats- High competition- NTBs/NTMs increase- Import tax of finished

products is 0% in some FTAs which resulted in local production competition ;Ex. Import EV from China of Japan is 0%

33. Thailand Automotive Industry Development . Thailand Automotive Industry Development

Master Plan Master Plan 20122012--20162016Master Plan Master Plan 20122012--20162016

30

Vision 2021

“Thailand is a global green automotive

production base with strong domestic

supply chains which create high value

Vision 2011

“Thailand is production base in Asia

which creates more value added to the

country with strong automotive parts

industry”

The way forward of Thailand

supply chains which create high value

added for the country”

ประเทศไทยเป็นฐานการผลติยานยนต่

ของโลกดว้ยหว่งโซอ่ปุทาน

(Supply chain) ที9สรา้งมลูคา่เพิ9มในประเทศและเป็นมติรกบัสิ9งแวดลอ้ม

Green = Environmental friendly & international standard

industry”

ประเทศไทยเป็นฐานการผลติยานยนต่ของเอเชยี สามารถสรา้งมลูคา่เพิ9มในประเทศดว้ยอตุสาหกรรมชิFนสว่นยาน

ยนตท์ี9แข็งแกรง่

31

Development Planning in the key competitiveness

1. Facility: Testing center2. R&D

� Light weight vehicle � Alternative fuel� Vehicle safety� Vehicle safety� Advance technology

3. AHRD� Japanese government� GIZ (Germany)� KANGAN (Australia)� University (Thailand)

32

แผนแม่บทอุตสาหกรรมยานยนต์ พ.ศ. 2555-2559

Master Plan for Thai Automotive Industry 2012-2016

Strategic Plan

(3 COEs + 2 ENVs)

VISION 2021“Thailand is a global green automotive production base

with strong domestic supply chains which create high value added for the country”

Alternative energyProductivity

Improvement

Cluster/Supply chain

Network

Green manufacturing

Integrated AHRD

System Development

Capability upgrading

AHRD Alliance

Human Resources

Development

Entrepreneur Strength

Enhancement

Alternative energy

Light weight vehicles

Vehicle safety

Advanced production T technology

Research andTechnology

Development

• Testing and R&D Centers

• Automotive Academy

ENV-1

Infrastructure

• Policy Integration

• Policy Research Support

• Promote Investment Promotion for Green Products and Suppliers

• Branding for REM

• Automotive Information Centers

COE-1 COE-2 COE-3

COE = Center of Excellence ENV = Good Business Environment 33

Thailand Automotive InstituteThailand Automotive Institute

www.thaiauto.or.thwww.thaiauto.or.thwww.thaiauto.or.thwww.thaiauto.or.th

Thank You

34

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