Big Data Innovation Summit: Unlocking the Value of Big Data

Anthony J. Scriffignano, Ph.D

SVP Worldwide Data & Insight Dun & Bradstreet

April 9, 2014

ダンアンドブラッドストリート Headquarters location: 40° 44' 30.0192'' N 74° 21' 35.8128'' W

斯格非亚诺 博士 (安东尼)

2014年4月9日

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Clearly, Big Data is central to the strategic thinking of today’s innovators and business executives. Companies are scrambling to figure out the secret to transforming Big Data to Big Insight and that Insight into Action. As many companies struggle with the emerging technologies and nascent capabilities to discover and curate massive quantities of highly dynamic data, new problems are emerging in the form of how to ask meaningful questions that leverage the “V’s” of large amounts of data (e.g. volume, variety, velocity, veracity). In the Business-to-Business space, these challenges are creating both significant opportunity and ominous new types of risk. In this session, D&B’s SVP of Worldwide Data & Insight, Dr. Anthony Scriffignano, will discuss how companies are reacting to these changes and provide valuable insight into new ways of thinking in a world with overwhelming quantities of data.

Session abstract…

The imperative for transforming Big Data into Big Insight is central to B2B evolution, allowing us to turn insights into action

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Our customers continue to ask more difficult questions and expect innovation to outpace their need

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Private fixed investment – IT equipment & software has become an increasingly important component

Our response as an industry has been predictable, but incomplete

Pope Benedict Inauguration

Sometimes, a picture is worth a thousand words.

Pope Francis Inauguration

• What about the digital footprint of all of the smartphones?

• What about the social networks the crowd?

• What about the metadata in the photos?

• What are the opportunity costs to other activities?

• The largest corpus of data preceded the event

• Most data created about the event had significant, and asymmetric latency

• The rate of “data decay” attributable to the participants in the event is significant

Lately, a thousand pictures are taken in the time it takes to speak a single word!

The nature of Big Data itself is changing through human and digital “learning”

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The fundamental problem of identifying and understanding a business is something we do well.

That problem is made much more complex when the “crowd” is doubling and doubling in size.

“There will be a shortage of talent necessary for organizations to take advantage of big data. By 2018, the United States alone could face a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000 people with deep analytical skills as well as 1.5 million managers and analysts with the know-how to use the analysis of big data to make effective decisions.”

McKinsey & Global Institute Report “ Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity” June, 2011

Business problems such as credit decisioning are much more complex as the “crowd” is changing

30 years ago we were in search of basic tools

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• Lack of transactional data resulted in surveys, surveys and more surveys

• Human and Digital latency was an accepted part of the analytic landscape

• Storage and computing power were severe limitations (remember the days of megabytes or sharing a PC with other team members?)

• Analytic methods – descriptive at best

• … fragmented views of the truth that lacked foresight in most cases

30 years later these issues have been addressed, giving rise to others

• Transactional data overwhelming problem formulation, increased reliance on tools vs. methods

• Storage and processing power – our head is now in the clouds • Analytic capabilities that can allow us to filter, determine casualty

and be both prescriptive and proscriptive • New capabilities to understand the character and quality of data

in ways that were never before possible • …. However we are still struggling to get to a complete view,

determine causality and to transform our understanding into foresight and action

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• We all know that the world is changing • We are aware that the rate of change is increasing at

an unprecedented rate • We see new types of data, technologies, and behaviors

every day

The Operating Environment

• What has made us successful so far is insufficient • We now have the ability to succeed… or fail, much faster • The connectedness of information and the ways in which it is

changing is impacting the risk and opportunity space in ways we are only beginning to understand

The Case for Change

The case for change is a compelling one

We must learn to ask questions in new ways

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Data Data Data DATA! It’s not just about DATA!

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Math Math Math MATH! It’s not just about MATH!

It’s about making better business

decisions

Where to invest?

How do to optimize sales &

marketing investments?

How to target better?

How to minimize my risk?

How to manage world class

supply chain?

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Relationships matter

Put simply, there are three levels of insight required along a journey to informed perspective

I See You

Global Data Completeness

I Know You

Multi-Lingual Identity Resolution

I Can Predict Your Behavior Predictive Analytics

Transparent Relationships Insight for Decisions

“I need integration of assets and transactional data.”

“I need foundational business insight.”

“I need predictive insights on-demand.”

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Leveraging new data sources provides a complete transparency of a business relationship which enables actionable insight

Complete Transparency in

Business Relationship

Propritary Business Activity Signals

3rd Party Business Activity Signals

Logistic – Shipping &

Delivery Spend &

Purchasing Transaction

Data

Real Estate Transactions

& Ownership

Social Media

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Innovating and expanding data collection will result in:

Linking together relationships

between trading partners to see a complete supply chain

Identifying the “heartbeat” of a business, predicting its future health, and rapidly seeing changes

Deeper insight based on signal patterns to anticipate the future behavior of a business

Understanding the true size of a business in multiple dimensions, including social influence beyond its balance sheet

Traditional Size Attributes

Number of Employees

Sales Revenue

New Data Sources

Proprietary Data Signals

Untraditional Size ‘Proxies’

Data innovations are radically enhancing our predictive analytic power, such as new models for assessing size dimensions

Multi-dimensional Size Assessment

• Comprehensive • Multi-faceted • Contextual • Representative

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10Marketing Composite Score

Total Loss Viability

Physical

Delinquency

Influential

Financial

MCS Illustration

SIZE

RISK

3 SIZE Measurements trending over time

+

3 RISK Measurements

=

1 POWERFUL Score

New strategies exist for risk-reward tradeoffs such as multi-dimensional marketing attributions

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Commercial signals and proxy are now added to existing predictive attributes to provide deeper insights and even more predictive analytics.

Signal & proxy sources add significant

decisioning content on small businesses with

limited or no traditional predictive data footprint

Leveraging signals gives rise to the ability to predict the likelihood a material change in a company’s profile will occur in the next year

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Advanced Analytics

Activity Signals

Behavioral Trends

Event Frequencies

Changes in Traditional Data Sources

Anticipatory Analytics

Risk Profile Change

Opportunity Profile Change

Advanced analytics can identify businesses that are poised for growth, and anticipate customers’ progression across the business lifecycle

Businesses can be thought to have stages of ‘size’,

like caterpillars growing into butterflies

Starting up

Going Public

Growing Physically and Financially

Going Global

Foresight into future needs enables you to take the best action at the best time

Egg Caterpillar

Molting Larva

Pupa

Emerging Adult

Adult

Engage Here High probability of

growth in near future

Act Now Indication a major business

transition lies ahead

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Virtuous Cycle

Teach & Learn

Inform

Focus on Creating an Informed Perspective for Customers

The winning hand is to incorporate science into workflows in a systematic way….

Develop foundational knowledge

Integrate assets including Transactional Data

Establish complete and intimate knowledge of customers and prospects

Transform insights into action

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With vast amounts of data come great opportunity… and new types of risk

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As we continue this work, we are also mindful about how the nature of data is changing…

It is easier than ever to start a new business – geographic location, existing infrastructure, and physical customer interaction are becoming irrelevant. …However, ALL OF THESE ATTRIBUTES HELP RESOLVE BUSINESS IDENTITY.

As the ability to provide “helpful” information proliferates, the truth can get lost.

As information is increasingly unstructured or imbedded in applications and private spaces, the lines between what is public and what is discernable are blurred.

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Source: USA Today

The Internet

• Just because it’s on the Internet doesn’t make it true…

• Significant effort exists to manipulate what we “find,” that capability can be exploited or simply used with negligence

• Everything isn’t on the internet! Veracity

• Repetition doesn’t necessarily mean truth • Repetition doesn’t necessarily mean truth • Bad news travels fast • Bad guys are often “smarter” than good

guys • Truth can only be measured against a source

of the “truth” Latency

• Everything is not simultaneously true • Newer information isn’t always more true

Relationship •Correlation is not causation

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In the above use-case, with millions of payment experiences a week, we were able to quickly identify and analyze a suspicious pattern and take action Not only on all related cases but also the “three ring leaders”

Some thoughts on veracity…

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Some thoughts on volume…

• There are multiple considerations for Volume • Moving from data in hand to discoverable data • Discovery leads to curation and synthesis • Multiple technologies are available from cloud to in-house, but must consider

existing footprint • Consider the skillset of resources available

• Volume is dynamic • Monotonicity • Persistence • Ubiquity • Security and access

• Volume must also be considered as an opportunity cost • More data requires different approaches to processing • Big “O” considerations for prospecting and analytics

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Some thoughts on variety…

• There are multiple considerations for Variety • The myth of “unstructured” data • Disambiguation and entity extraction • Neural networks and other methods for inferring ontology and relationship • Deep learning, heuristics and automata

• Variety is constantly evolving • New data types are being created out of necessity • The “hidden” web and other sources of data • The impact of language and orthography • Evolution of encryption and transformations

• Variety leads to unique challenges for processing • Measuring and sampling • Bias introduced by different types of data • Unknown “met” needs

Macro

Regional

Local

Micro

Global

Association

Entity

People in Context

Connected Supply/Value

Chains

Mal-feasance

Disaster Remediation

Material Changes

Challenging the Status Quo: There are many frames to consider when delivering an answer

“And now we welcome the new year, full of things that have never been” –

Rainer Maria Rilke

We must embrace information that is rich, varied, and full of opportunity and shift our focus from “hunting and gathering” to new opportunities beyond just “Big Data”

The

informed. future belongs to

Follow the conversation at: @dnbUS @Scriffignano1

Visit us at: www.dnb.com

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