wpa's weekly political brief
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief October 5, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment
as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Immediate reactions following the first Presidential debate
• The impact of the Presidential debate in swing states
• How voters view the election as a referendum on the candidates
• Oil Production in the United States reaching a 15-year high
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Weekly Summary
• Following the first Presidential Debate, which was the most watched political event thus far, it was
apparent that Mitt Romney emerged victorious and made impressions on voters (pg. 11-13).
o Romney was considered the stronger candidate on a number of issues, including the economy, taxes
and healthcare.
o 67% of voters felt that Romney won the debate, the highest percentage for a Presidential candidate
since the question was first asked by CNN/ORC in 1984.
o In three key swing states (OH, VA, FL), early polling numbers after the debate show Mitt Romney
gaining ground on President Obama
• Rasmussen Reports recently asked voters whether the current election was a referendum on the agendas
of Mitt Romney or President Obama (pg. 14).
o A majority Republicans, Democrats and Americans feel as though this election is a referendum on
the policies of President Obama instead of Mitt Romney.
• The United States reached a 15-year high in oil production in September, but a vast majority of the oil and
natural gas in production is coming from state and private lands (pg. 15).
o While there have been increases in oil and natural gas production from state and private lands,
federal land usage dropped 11% for oil and 6% for natural gas in the fiscal year 2010-2011.
Page 4
57%of Americans believe that the nation is on the wrong track.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 31% 19%
Wrong Track 63% 75%
29% 27%
29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%
17% 19%
31% 30% 31% 37%
47%
66% 62% 64% 63%
64% 66% 64%
77% 74%
61% 62% 63% 57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
Nov-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
2010 Election
Page 5
President Obama has a higher approval rating than disapproval rating for this first time since May.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 50% 49%
Disapprove 47% 48%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46%
49% 49% 49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49%
48% 48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
$51,342
$141,081
$16,147,708,077,557
The U.S. national debt approached $16.2 trillion.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
Page 7
Democrats maintain a one-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot one month until the election.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 41% 42%
45% 46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46%
43% 43% 44%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
Page 8
While President Obama’s economic approval has risen in recent weeks, 51% of Americans still disapprove of his handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
51%
46%
2010 Election
Page 9
While the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%, this decrease is a result of a 183,000 increase in “total multiple jobholders.” The broader U-6, those who are unemployed or cannot find full time employment, remained at 14.7%. Additionally, the economy in 2012 is only averaging an increase of 146,00 jobs per month compared to 2011’s average of 153,000 per month.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
125,000 =
Number of new
jobs needed to
keep pace with
population
growth
181,000
142,000 114,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
July August September
Jobs Created by Month
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
September 2012 7.8%
Page 10
President Obama has developed a 4-point lead over Romney throughout September, a month characterized by significant amounts of variance in the presidential ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 49%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44% 46% 45% 45% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Page 11
67 Million viewers tuned in for the first Presidential Debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney. The debate drastically outdid the biggest speeches of the party conventions. The 67 Million is 15 million viewers more than the first debate in 2008 and over half of the 130 million voters from the 2008 election.
67 Million
36 Million
30 Million
25 Million 22 Million
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
Debate Obama Speech Romney Speech Clinton Speech Ryan Speech
Viewers of the Major Political Events in 2012 Election Cycle
Source: Nielson Ratings
Page 12
A CNN/ORC poll following the Presidential Debate held October 3 showed that 67% of Americans felt Mitt Romney won the debate, more than any Presidential candidate since 1984. Romney was also considered the better candidate on a number of different issues and nearly twice as many voters said they would be more likely to vote for Romney over Obama after the debate.
67%
35%
55% 53% 52% 57% 58%
8%
47% 2% 3% 1%
2% 5%
25% 18%
43% 44% 47% 41% 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Who Won the Debate
More Likely to vote for after the
Debate
Better on the Economy
Better on Taxes Better on Healthcare
Better on the Deficit
Stronger Leader
Performance in the Presidential Debate
Obama
Neither
Romney
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, October 3, 2012
Page 13
Mitt Romney’s performance in the Presidential debate appeared to have paid dividends in the three swing states of Ohio, Florida and Virginia. In the first poll releases following the debate, Romney has either closed the gap or taken the lead over President Obama.
50% 47% 49% 49% 48%
1% 7% 5% 3% 7%
49% 46% 46% 48% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ohio (Rasmussen) Ohio (We Ask America)
Florida (We Ask America)
Virginia (Rasmussen)
Virginia (We Ask America)
Swing State Polls following the Presidential Debate
Obama
Undecided
Romney
Source: Rasmussen Reports & We Ask America
Page 14
A new Rasumussen Reports poll shows that a majority of Americans believe that the presidential election is a referendum on the President Obama’s Agenda rather than on Mitt Romney’s agenda. The partisan breakdown shows that majorities of both parties feel as though the election is about the President, and nearly half of Independents agree.
53%
59% 54%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All Americans Democrats Republicans Independents
Percentage that believe the Presidential Election is a Referendum on President Obama
Romney's Agenda
25%
Undecided 21%
Obama's Agenda
53%
Whose Agenda Does The Election Reflect?
Source: Rasmussen Reports, October 1-2, 2012
Page 15
The United States hit a 15-year high in oil production last month but the main reason for this increase in production has been the use of private and state lands. In the fiscal year 2010-2011, use of Federal lands in oil and natural gas production dropped 11% and 6% respectively.
-11%
14%
-6%
12%
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
Federal Lands State and Private Lands
Oil Production in the United States, FY2010-FY 2011
Oil Natural Gas
Source: Institute for Energy Research
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