wpa's weekly political brief 120302
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 1, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Key Weekend Charts
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday morning.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Trends in the Republican Primary Election
• 2012 Voter Enthusiasm Gap
• American’s opinions on taxing the rich
Page 3
Weekly Summary
The Republican primary election refuses to stabilize, reflecting the indecision of voters across the
Republican spectrum.
• After wins in Michigan and Arizona Romney has returned to the top, supplanting Santorum
going into Super Tuesday.
Despite the lengthy primary race, Republicans are showing more enthusiasm for voting in 2012.
• Republicans have created an eight point enthusiasm gap.
• Republican enthusiasm, however, is below the 79% the Democrats had in February of
2008.
A recent Hill poll has shown how important question wording is can be. While Americans generally
feel the wealthy should pay more taxes, they also define “wealthy” as those who make more money
than they do, irrespective of their actual income. In fact, when asked what exact percentage of their
income the wealthy should pay, the vast majority of Americans settle on a number substantially less
than the current top income rate.
Page 4
Americans are unsatisfied with the direction of the country.
Source: Reuters/Ipsos National Poll
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Direction of County
Right Direction Wrong Direction
62%
32%
Page 5
Obama’s job approval remains steady from last week and is up slightly compared to the end of January.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 49% 46%
Disapprove 47% 48%
46%
52%
44% 43%
49% 49%
42%
51% 52%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
Disappointing numbers on gas prices and Gallup’s data indicate conflict with Thursday’s drop in unemployment claims. March 9th will hopefully shed some light on a muddled picture.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted
January, 2012 8.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
7.00%7.50%8.00%8.50%9.00%9.50%
10.00%10.50%11.00%11.50%
Gallup Data
9.0% 10.3%
8.3%
Page 7
Despite glimmers of hope in the economy, Obama’s economic rating has not improved.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll
58%
50%
46% 40% 36%
44% 38% 49%
51%
59% 62%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12
Obama on the Economy
Approve Disapprove
Page 8
Democrats and Republicans remain tied on the generic ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Republicans 43% 43%
Democrats 43% 45%
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 43%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Page 9
$49,230
$1,259,339,455,465
$15,415,071,315,156
National debt has risen more than $27,027,285,597 since last week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Total U.S. Federal Deficit
Page 10
The race for the Republican nomination continues its unpredictable trend, with Romney’s success in Arizona and Michigan boosting him back on top nationally going into the potentially decisive Super Tuesday.
Source: Real Clear Politics
33%
27% 28%
35%
15% 16%
34%
30%
18%
31%
15% 15%
14% 13% 12% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Select Points During the Republican Nomination
Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul
Page 11
Likely
Santorum
Likely
Gingrich
Likely
Romney
Oklahoma Georgia Mass.
Ohio Virginia
Vermont
Of the remaining delegates, 19% will be awarded on Super Tuesday. Recent public polling suggest we may see another split decision between Romney and Santorum causing the nomination fight to continue.
State Georgia Ohio Tennessee Virginia Oklahoma Mass. Idaho North
Dakota Alaska Vermont TOTAL
Delegate 76 66 58 49 43 41 32 28 27 17 437
Super Tuesday Delegate Counts Already Voted Super Tuesday Other
Public Polling Estimates
Page 12
Despite a brutal drawn-out primary campaign, Republicans are distinctly more excited than Democrats about voting in 2012.
Source: Gallup
58%
49% 53%
45% 44% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
% More Enthusiastic About Voting Than Usual
Republican/Lean Republican Democrat/Lean Democrat
Page 13
Ostensibly, a majority of Americans support increasing taxes on the wealthy.
Source: NYT/CBS News, August 2-3, n=960
Increase taxes 63%
DK/NA 3%
Don't increase taxes 34%
In order to lower the nation's budget deficit, do you think taxes should be increased on households earning $250,000 a year or more or should the government address the
budget deficit without increasing taxes on those households?
Page 14
However, most Americans define “wealthy” as those who are making more than they are.
Source: Reason-Rupe, August 9-18, n=1200
Income
Income Percentile Definition of
“Wealthy”
1% $50,000
25% $200,000
50% (Median) $250,000
75% $500,000
99% $10 billion
Page 15
In fact when asked what rate the wealthy should be taxed at, the majority of Americans suggest a rate that is actually lower than the current one.
Source: The Hill/Pulse Opinion, February 23, n=1000
Less than 20% Tax Rate 21%
20% Tax Rate 17%
25% Tax Rate 23%
30% Tax Rate 14%
35% Tax Rate 13%
40% Tax Rate 4%
More than 45% Tax Rate 2%
Not sure 5%
Most Appropriate Top Tax Rate for Families earning $250,000 or more?
Page 16
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202.470.6300
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Chris Perkins Partner
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Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
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