(삼성경제연구소) 2012년 세계경제 및 한국경제 반기별 전망
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(삼성경제연구소) 2012년 세계경제 및 한국경제 반기별 전망TRANSCRIPT
- 1. SERIEconomic Outlook2011. 12. 1. 2012 - - Executive Summary . ............................. 1 . 2012 ........................ 5 . 2012 ...................... 11 . ..................................... 26 (3780-8062) [email protected]
2. 2012 () . 3. 2012 Executive Summary 2011 . , . . 2012 2 3.5% . . 2012 3.6% . , , . , , , SOC . . 2012 2011 3.4% . . 2012 / 1,060 . , . . . . , . 4. 2012 2012 ( )2011 2012 3.84.13.33.8 % 4.0 3.6( ) (1.1)(0.9)(0.4)(1.3) 2.92.2 2.62.42.7 2.5 -1.6 0.2 -0.7 4.93.1 3.99.41.7 5.42.86.2 4.5 %-9.0 -1.6-5.1 5.30.4 2.6 13.0 8.9 10.8 8.08.9 8.5 9.36.8 8.07.18.4 7.8%4.34.5 4.43.63.2 3.4 %3.83.1 3.53.63.2 3.4 81143 224 49 76 125 155163 318110150 260 2,737 2,9025,6393,027 3,227 6,254 () % (23.7) (18.4)(20.9) (10.6) (11.2)(10.9) 2,582 2,7395,3212,917 3,077 5,994 () % (26.7) (23.7)(25.1) (13.0) (12.3)(12.7)/ 1,101 1,1091,1051,080 1,040 1,060 %4.54.3 4.44.24.4 4.3 106105 105 94 9695 5. 2012 . 2011 3/4 3.4% ,2 3% - 2010 4/4(4.7%) 2011 3/4 3 3/4 0.7% , (0.9%) (% ) 108 .58 7.564.4 4 .7 4 .243.4 3.42 .12 1.41 .30.60.9 0.70 .50 -2 -4 -60 8 .III III IV 0 9 .I II III IV1 0 .IIIIII IV1 1 .IIIIII : , ECOS. , - 1 1 6. 2012 2011 710 17.8% (23.7%) 2011 7 21.5 2011 20 - , 2011 3/4 2.2%, 1.4% , 2009 3/4 2 4.2% 6 ( % , ) ()(, %)40 2440() (3, ) 302235 202030 101802516 -102014 -201215 -30 10/14 7 1011.1 4710 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0809 10 11: , Kita.net.; , ECOS. 8 , - 8 2 7. 2012 8 1 11 28 5.4 2,000p KOSPI 1,7001,900p - / 8 1 1,150 VIX1) 2011 8 8 48.0 , 1 2 40 , 3040 9 26 / 1,195.80 2011 , 11 VIX / () 60 1,200VIX ()1,180 50 / ()1,160 401,140 30 1,1201,100 201,080 101,0600 1,04011/1 11/2 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11: , ECOS. , 1) S&P500 30 , VIX 20 (), 40 () 3 8. 2012 - 2011 4/4 2011 9 OECD 100.4 2011 2(103.0) 7 - 2011 9 2010 32.7 628.6 2011 9 ( ) 5.66% 2010 0.58%p OECD OECD Major Five Asia (%) ( )106 ( ) 8.5 480 : ( )1048.0 : ( ) 4501027.5100 4207.0 986.5 390 966.0 94 360 92 5.5330 90 5.0 88 4.5 30008.1 5909.1 5 9 10.1 5 9 11.1 5 9 07.1 7 08.1 7 09.1 7 10.1 7 11.1 7: OECD.Stat : , ECOS. 4 9. 2012 . 2012 1. : 2011 3.8% 2012 3.5% 2011 3/4 2011 10 EU - 3/4 ( ): 2.4%(2010 ) 0.8%(2011 ) 2.0%(3/4)- 2011 10 26 EU 2011 11 25 14% , VIX 30 - 2011 10 (PMI) VIX PMI 1800 VIX()90160080140070120060100050 80040 60030 40020 20010 00 08.1 709.1 7 10.1 7 11.1 7: Thomson Reuters, Datastream.; MSCI : Bloomberg 5 10. 2012 , - - 2) - - , , , 3) , 2) 3) , , 6 11. 2012 - EU, IMF 4) - , - 9% - - , 2012 4) 2008 7 12. 2012 2012 2021 10 2 4,170 5) 2013 - , , 1.25% , 6) , - BRICs 50% - 2012 2012 , - 2012 78% 5) 2011 7 31 2 4,000 6) 8 13. 2012 2012 - 2012 1/4 EU, IMF - 2012 2012 (: %)20112012 2010 5.03.9 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 ( ) (4.2)(3.2) (2.9) (3.0) (2.8) (2.9) (2.8) 3.11.8 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.01.9 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.82.0 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.81.1 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.9 4.1 -0.8 0.2-0.3 2.1 1.3 1.7 7.06.1 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.6 BRICs8.97.9 7.3 7.6 7.1 7.3 7.2 ( ) 10.49.7 8.5 9.0 8.3 8.5 8.4 ( )8.87.8 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.6 7.5 ()7.53.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 ()4.03.8 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.9 ASEAN 56.95.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.9: ASEAN , , , , 5 : 9 14. 2012 2. : 1 105(2011) 95(2012) 2012 () 2011 9.5% 1 95 - 2012 2012 0.9% 2011 0.2%p , - , , 2012 1 96 (94) () - , (: /) 2011 2012 2010 78106105 10594 96 95 2012 , - 2012 11.4% 7,800/, 14.3% 150/ 7)7) (LME) , (Fines) 10 15. 2012 . 2012 1. 2012 3.6%: 3.3%() 3.8%() 2011 ( ) - 2010 6.2% 2011 3.8%( ),2011 3/4 3.4% - 2011 4/4 4/4 , 2010 78 3/4 : , ECOS. 11 16. 2012 2012 2012 3.6% - 1%p ( ) 4.2%p - , , , 2012 3.3% , 3.8% - 0.4% 1.3% , 2. 2012 2.5%: 2.4%() 2.7%() 2011 , 2.6% 2010(4.1%) 12 17. 2012 - - , (+) , ( , % )( = 5 0 , p )10 60 8 ( ) ( )55 6 ( ) 4 50 2 0 45-2-4 40-6-8 350 8 .I II IIIIV 0 9 .IIIIII IV 1 0 .I II III IV 1 1 .I II IIIIV: 1) 2) , , : (2011. 11.). . ; , KOSIS. 2012 2.5% - , (+) , 2.4% , (+) - 2.7% , , 13 18. 2012 - - , ( )(%)1 ,2 0 0 150 ( , ) ( )148.41 ,1 0 0 145144.9140.41 ,0 0 0 140 136.4900135800128.8 130700125120.46001206 0 1 .9 6 7 1 .1 7 4 4 .28 1 1 .38 7 2 .19 5 1 .79 9 3 .2500115 0 50 6 0 7 0 8 0 91 0 1 1 .2 / 4: ( ) : , ECOS.3. 2012 4.5%: 2.8%() 6.2%() 2012 2.8% - 2011 2012 10% - , 14 19. 2012 2010 4/4 4.6%p 2011 3/4 1.3%p ( , %): 24.2(10.4/4) 11.5 (11.1/4) 12.1(2/4) 8.7(3/4) - 2011 4/4 BSI 2009 4/4 (100) BSI: , ECOS. : , KOSIS.; , ECOS. 2012 6.2% - - / / (: 2008 1 2011 10) -0.646 15 20. 2012 2012 2.6%: 5.3%() 0.4%() 8) 2012 5.3% - SOC 9) 2010 4/4 LH - , , 2011 110 4.9 (3.7 ) 1.2 2010 12 8.9 2011 10 6.6 10) : , ECOS.: 8) 2011 (9.0% ) 2012 , -0.9%, 0.3% 9) 2011 SOC 24.1 , 4 2012 SOC 22.6 10) , 16 21. 2012 2012 - 2011 - , , 11)4. 2012 10.9%: 10.6%() 11.2%() 2012 2011(20.9%) 10.9% - 2012 , , , 12) 2011 3.8% 2012 3.5% , 2011 , 2011 , - IT FTA 10.6% 11.2% ( ), 2012 , -EU, - FTA 11) 2012 12) 2011 1/4~3/4 9.2% , (22.9%) 40% . 2012 , 17 22. 2012 2011 (%) () 6(%, )28.325 ()-430 5 () 21.520.9 10.9 2020 -6.018.7 4-613.615.0-7.5 31510-8 2 9.79.50 10 8.2 12.95.0 3.8 3.5-10-10 5-9.9 0-13.9-1-0.5-20 0 -12 2008 200920102011p 2012p 2011Q1 Q2 Q3: IMF, WEO.; : , ECOS. , 2012 2011 25.1% 12.7% - - 2012 10 - 2011 318 2012 260 - 2011 224 2012 125 18 23. 2012 5. 2012 13) 3.4%: 3.6%() 3.2%() 2012 3.6% - , , 14) - 15) 16) - , 4 : , ECOS.; : , ECOS.; , KOSIS.;13) 2010 (2011. 11. 29. ) 14) , 10% 0.3%p, 0.1%p 15) 2010 3/4 52.2 2011 4/4 45.4 16) 2012 -0.7% 19 24. 2012 2012 3.2% - , / 10% 0.7%p - / : , ECOS.6. 2012 3.4%: 3.6%() 3.2%() 2012 2011 40 24 - 2011 110 6,000 , 41.3 - 2012 24 , 20052008 20 25. 2012 2012 2011 , , 2011 (= /) 0.42 20052008 0.27 17) : , 2011 2012 : , KOSIS.; , ECOS.; - 2012 , 2012 2011 0.1%p 3.4% - 2012 2011 , 20102011 17) 2010 32.3 6.2% 2009 (7.1 ) , 2011 40 4.0%() . 2010 2011 21 26. 2012 2012 18) - 3.6%, 3.2% , 7. 2012 (AA-, 3) 4.3%: 4.2%() 4.4%() 2012 2011(4.4%) 4.3% - , - , - 2011 6( 2 ) (, ) : 2.7(11.15) 4.2(11.611)18) 2012 10.1 2011(9.5 ) 2009 2012 2 2 ( (2011. 9. 28.). 2012 . .; [2012] 4 5,600 2 . (2011. 9. 27.). .) 22 27. 2012 - , 2008 , ( ) : 13.4(11) 43.9(12) - 2001 , (3.38%) - (3.25%) = 0.13%p(11 24 ) : : 4.2% , 4.4% - - 23 28. 2012 8. / 2012 / 1,060: 1,080() 1,040() 2012 / , - / 3 , SDR , 2013 (00.25%) , 3 2011 11 G20 IMF SDR 2015 - , / 2012 6 , 2011 6 (3,495 ) 54% 1,873 ( ) 3.5 1 2 (6 , ) 3.0 () 2.5 3,4951,873 (54%) 2.0- 913429 (47%) 1.5- 913550 (60%) 1.0 0.5- 1,666 891 (54%) 0.0- 3 3 (100%) 07 08 09 1011: Bloomberg : BIS 24 29. 2012 , , / - , 2012 6 9% , - , , - - 19) , 19) (Fitch) 2011 11 7 A+ (stable) A+ (positive) 25 30. 2012 . 2012 - , - 2 2012 3.6% - , , GDP 33.5%(2010 ) OECD (96.9%) : 309.0 (2008) 435.5 (2011 )20) - 20) (2011). "20112015 : ." , 6 22~29. . 26 31. 2012 , - , , - R&D - , , , - , 27 32. 2012 , - , 2008 9 , 2009 3 - , , - 1997 2008 , , , , , , - - PF , 2008 , , 28 33. 2012 - GDP 50% , - - , , , - , , 21) - , OECD 22) 21) 54.5%, 52.6%(2010) OECD 64.8% 59.4% 22) (30 ) 15.5% OECD 31 25(2010) 29 34. 2012 - , - , - - - , M&A 30