詹姆士看天下 2015/04/20

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/04/20



124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014 () -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%



Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/4/17

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.31 381 393 297

6.40 460 466 335

8.45 732 746 461

3.78 242 243 218

() ()()()()



: Bloomberg 2015/4/17

4

(%)

5.79

(&)

4.31

6.40

%

%

8.45

96

-0.97

-0.39

-0.13

0.13

0.18

0.30

0.34

0.48

0.50

0.51

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1



1.4 0.9 0.8

0.0

-0.2 -0.8 -0.8

-1.3

3.0

0.4

-0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)



6

l 5

l 100.08%

l

-4.2

-49.7

-10.7 -0.3

7.9 3.1 0.3 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.6

-0.1 -0.6 -1.9

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

CR

B

(%)


118.9

$1204.28

1.865%

$1.0806 $55.74



6.3

3.9

2.7 2.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8

0.3 0.1

0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 -2.3

-3.5

-5.5

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

7

: Bloomberg 2015/4/17 ==225=

(%)



(6.3%)(3.9%)

(2.7%)6

(2.6%)

(-5.5%-3.5%-2.3%)

8



9

()4%

201548120%3

200720007%

()

2015/4/14

()

2303() 2304()

QE



10

48930005

15%7H()223101054002500GDP

H

2015/4/14

-

0302 ()

() 0404 ()

- 4220 () 4202 ()



11

Bloomberg



12

() Bloomberg : 2015/4/17()



13

() Bloomberg : 2015/4/17()



: Bloomberg

14

4/20() 4Rightmove -- 5.4%

4/21() 4ZEW -- 62.4

4/22()

3 503 488

4 -2.0 -3.7

7.50% 7.50%

4/23()

3 51.0 53.9

4MarkitPMI 55.6 55.7





4PMI 49.4 49.6

4/24()3 0.6% -1.4%

4IFO 108.4 107.9



QE

9QE

10030.75

31200

15



(60%)

QE

2

6.3%

2

4

(40%)

9

QE

(2015/4/20)

16



17

IMFIMF3.5%3.8%0.2~0.4%7.5%IMF3.1% 69



18

B-CCC+BC72



1GDP717315%

4201%1%

1521.22441.2237136492

19



326.2%6.1%6.3%3.773.156,1000.164.8%

OPEC(OPEC)3OPEC2291929272015OPEC6885OPEC7482

20



152.7316

PE15.5PE10.6

21



3 0.9% 1.1% -0.5%

3 0.2% 0.2% -0.5%

3 -0.6% -0.3% 0.1%

3 92.6 104.0 90.8

3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

3 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

4 95.9 94.0 93.0

2 1.1% 0.4% -0.3%

3 1.1% 1.1% 0.6%

0.05% 0.05% 0.05%

3 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

: Bloomberg

22



3M2 11.6% 12.4% 12.5%

3 -15.0% 9.0% 48.3%

3 -12.7% -10.0% -20.5%

GDP 7.0% 7.0% 7.3%

2 -0.4% -2.2% -1.7%

7.50% 7.50% 7.50%

3 -0.6% -1.9% -1.6%

1 11.3% 11.2% 10.9%

3 -1.5% -1.3% -1.6%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

2 -3.1% -2.2% 0.5%

2 4.2% 1.9% 1.9%

: Bloomberg

23



(%)

MSCI 1769.01 -0.59 -0.31 4.97 8.79 3.47 5.89 2081.18 -0.99 -1.28 2.90 9.31 1.08 11.60

1251.86 -1.02 -1.15 6.97 14.33 3.91 10.01 403.69 -2.24 -0.08 13.41 27.34 17.85 21.44

273.28 -2.27 1.05 13.71 30.62 18.36 18.35 225 19652.88 -1.28 0.47 13.17 30.05 12.62 35.39

4788.76 -0.38 1.59 7.73 20.74 9.05 36.74

4287.30 6.27 18.52 35.12 81.92 32.54 104.38 MSCI 1042.68 0.78 7.54 8.92 6.23 9.03 3.04

MSCI 516.65 1.34 8.34 11.59 14.77 12.93 13.97 MSCI 323.09 -1.12 6.96 10.03 -9.98 8.94 -19.86 MSCI 2614.84 0.02 6.03 -0.91 -15.56 -4.14 -20.07 MSCI 288.50 -0.80 5.64 7.58 -1.69 6.55 -9.72

Bloomberg 123.74 0.50 1.15 0.24 2.71 2.14 6.32 Bloomberg 134.56 0.18 0.67 1.32 3.00 1.69 7.01 Bloomberg 140.86 0.51 1.69 1.34 3.02 3.03 6.86

Bloomberg 148.85 0.48 2.31 3.05 -0.38 1.72 -1.98 Bloomberg 155.96 0.30 2.35 4.56 2.30 4.09 2.27 Bloomberg 163.48 -0.39 0.42 2.63 4.58 2.90 4.75 ETF 48.08 -0.97 0.31 3.58 4.44 2.54 3.11

Bloomberg 146.10 0.13 3.59 3.79 1.64 3.74 5.61 Bloomberg 126.31 0.34 2.45 0.13 -0.38 1.52 2.93 Bloomberg 153.16 -0.13 1.90 2.54 5.77 3.84 11.99

Bloomberg 2015/4/17

24



(%) ()

MSCI 243.65 2.99 6.78 8.09 -4.12 2.46 -15.83 MSCI 229.42 -0.22 -0.44 4.12 2.60 2.86 -6.23

MSCI 104.66 -0.15 -0.29 6.28 6.64 1.85 3.20 MSCI 197.42 -1.64 -1.35 8.83 16.27 6.02 12.61 MSCI 207.67 -0.51 0.79 2.07 8.94 3.88 7.57

MSCI 204.81 -1.30 -1.02 4.57 8.91 2.75 1.81 MSCI 143.49 -1.58 -2.39 3.60 11.97 1.56 16.72 MSCI 70.48 0.37 0.11 1.50 4.99 3.10 -0.16 MSCI 117.30 -0.45 -0.48 -0.48 -0.15 -4.68 -1.85 MSCI 218.02 -1.18 -1.41 5.31 17.20 9.07 24.09 NBI 3730.39 -0.24 -2.79 10.42 32.26 17.40 60.74

AMEX 176.71 3.23 4.06 -14.92 -7.56 7.73 -19.61 REITs FTSE 14450.16 -0.78 -5.01 -4.48 8.99 1.42 17.94 REITs FTSE 1759.60 -0.91 -5.48 -5.34 9.83 1.35 17.95 REITs FTSE 1515.23 -2.35 -0.50 10.76 35.16 20.91 41.20 REITs FTSE 1559.51 -0.91 0.38 -1.18 6.03 2.53 10.45

(/) 1204.28 -0.27 4.76 -5.95 -2.75 1.64 -7.02 (/) 16.27 -1.20 4.52 -8.04 -5.76 3.57 -17.15

(/) 6060.00 0.35 4.75 6.04 -8.72 -3.81 -8.86 (/) 63.45 9.64 18.58 26.47 -26.36 10.68 -42.07 (/) 55.74 7.94 28.26 14.48 -32.64 4.64 -46.56

CRB 223.94 3.14 4.59 2.27 -17.40 -2.62 -28.10 879.81 -1.27 0.47 -5.83 -6.90 -8.79 -24.54


25



(%)

1.0806 1.90 1.97 -6.89 -15.32 -10.68 -21.78 118.90 1.10 2.08 -1.13 -10.11 0.74 -13.89 1.4962 2.26 1.44 -1.00 -7.03 -3.95 -10.91

0.9521 2.76 5.68 -7.61 -0.61 4.43 -7.24 1.2246 2.55 4.43 -2.49 -7.91 -5.10 -10.15 0.7782 1.30 2.17 -5.22 -11.00 -4.81 -16.59

1083.64 0.83 4.18 -0.52 -1.65 0.68 -4.13 31.0350 0.61 1.72 1.66 -2.04 2.00 -2.74

6.1979 0.17 0.84 0.36 -1.17 0.12 0.34 12850.00 0.60 2.57 -1.81 -5.76 -3.60 -11.10

62.3650 -0.07 0.56 -1.05 -1.48 1.09 -3.33 32.3460 0.61 1.77 0.75 0.23 1.74 -0.47

1.3459 1.63 3.17 -0.91 -5.26 -1.52 -6.92 3.6240 1.17 2.00 -1.45 -9.66 -3.50 -10.67

44.2050 0.41 0.86 0.83 1.60 1.17 0.53

12.0675 -0.59 2.38 -3.57 -8.18 -4.12 -13.10 2.6784 -1.89 -2.45 -12.77 -16.15 -12.82 -20.60 51.9640 3.03 18.25 24.86 -21.78 16.88 -31.47 3.7274 1.73 4.75 0.08 -11.31 -4.93 -18.78 278.61 0.50 2.97 -1.13 -14.03 -6.09 -20.34

4.0916 1.57 2.49 -5.15 -15.42 -9.52 -21.05

3.0408 1.13 6.54 -12.82 -19.91 -12.60 -26.44

15.3356 -0.72 0.26 -4.66 -11.82 -3.81 -14.92 8.8668 -0.21 -0.91 -2.96 -4.44 -4.53 -9.76


26



(%) () (bp)

30 2.5194 -6.0 -8.3 6.6 -44.8 -23.2 -100.3

10 1.8653 -8.2 -18.5 2.9 -32.8 -30.6 -85.6

0.3080 -3.7 -11.7 6.5 -16.8 -2.1 -29.7

0.0780 -7.7 -20.4 -37.6 -78.1 -46.3 -143.7 0.0780 -7.7 -20.4 -37.6 -78.1 -46.3 -143.7 0.3700 -6.4 -16.5 -26.3 -92.8 -45.6 -161.7

1.4780 21.2 21.0 -18.0 -101.9 -41.2 -164.3 1.4540 22.2 20.3 -4.8 -71.7 -15.7 -163.1 2.0160 40.5 38.5 -51.4 -128.7 -67.1 -172.0

2.3010 0.7 -14.2 2.3 -35.1 -21.7 -181.7 8.9500 50.0 52.0 166.0 -4.0 93.0 -110.0 10.6693 -27.7 -245.7 -281.4 83.5 -233.8 152.2 3.2800 3.0 -37.0 7.0 -91.0 -32.0 -230.0

7.8560 15.1 -5.9 47.8 -24.9 -11.3 -51.9

12.5900 1.2 -50.9 56.1 113.4 22.6 -16.4

5.7320 -2.1 -30.4 31.5 -13.4 -11.2 -46.7

2.1150 4.0 -20.0 -23.2 -61.5 -49.0 -140.2 7.5330 28.5 10.3 -25.2 -67.7 -26.3 -38.7

* 7.7960 -0.2 1.3 8.9 -59.4 -6.1 -105.8 9 2.5710 -0.5 -11.7 16.3 -48.0 -3.0 -135.5

: Bloomberg 2015/4/172015/4/16

27



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詹姆士看天下 2015/04/20

Economy & Finance