詹姆士看天下 2015/01/26

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/01/26


124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014

() -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%


Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/1/23

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.30 409 391 297

6.93 539 530 335

10.22 948 943 461

4.10 288 278 218

() ()()()()


0.09

0.16

0.36

0.42

0.45

0.56

0.73

0.88

1.14

1.25

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

: Bloomberg 2015/1/23

4

(%)

5.56

(&)

4.30

6.93

%

%

10.22

QE


5.7

4.8

3.5 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6

2.2

3.1 2.7 2.4

1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.6

l QE2

l

-2.2

-20.3

-3.7

1.1

-6.4 -3.4 -3.4

2.5 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.7

-0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -2.4 -3.1 -3.8

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

CR

B

(%)


117.77

$1294.10

1.797% $45.59 $1.1204


6.6 6.6 6.0

5.3 4.7

4.3 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5

1.6 1.5 1.3

-0.5 -0.7

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

7

: Bloomberg 2015/1/23 ==225=


(6.6%)210

(6.6%6.0%4.7%)QE6%

(5.3%)SET6

(-0.7%)197.7%20080.7%

8


1920087.7%11920GDP7.3%7.2%

16451235019

060710006000()6.5%619961210%20145%3667

5%

9

-

0302 ()

- 4220 () 4202 ()

() 0404 ()

2015/1/20


10

QE60074%

125IMF2595000QE1ZEW1

QE11QE

/

2015/1/20

()

2695 ()

8925 ()


201519%21130025.4%

IMFQE

ETF31202013ETF

3ETF1200

11

DWS Invest

2330 () 2332 ()

() 0406 ()

4832() 4830()

2015/1/21


12

Bloomberg


13

() Bloomberg : 2015/1/23()


14

() Bloomberg : 2015/1/23 ()


: Bloomberg

2014GDP

15

1/26() 1IFO 106.5 105.5

1/27()

12 0.4% -0.7%

12 45.0 43.8

1 95.5 92.6

FOMC(1/27-28) 0.25% 0.25%

2.10% 2.10%

1/28() 2.00% 2.00%

3.25% 3.25%

1/29()12 0.5% 0.8%

5.75% 5.75%

1/30()

2014GDP 3.1% 5.0%

1 -0.5% -0.2%

1 2.3% 2.4%


1.14QE

3600

QE130080

16


(60%)

IMF

QE11

(40%)

QE

(2015/1/26)

17


IMFIMF203.8%3.5%3.7%

2014 124.4%108.97.2%72.82008320141012007

2111%0.75%

18


ECBQE 1.14220.05%-0.2%20153600201691.14

ECBECBECBECB33%25% 419-0.05-0.2QE-0.2-0.3542570300149(IMF)

19


2015101.7%1%42%GDP1.5%2.1% GDP 2014GDP10.27.4%247.3%7.5%MLF() 12 IMF201620166.5%6.3%

20


210211.375210500200160

(Joaquim Levy)20150.38%20151.4%0.3%12.25%

21


12 103.2 106.0 105.2

12 108.9 104.0 104.3

12 504 508 492

12 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

1Markit 53.7 54.0 53.9

0.75% 1.00% 1.00%

-8.5 -10.5 -10.9

1Markit 51.0 51.0 50.6

1Markit 52.3 52.0 51.6

1Markit 51.0 51.7 51.2

1ZEW 48.4 40.0 34.9

ILO(9-11) 5.8% 5.9% 6.0%

: Bloomberg

22


2014GDP 7.3% 7.2% 7.3%

2014GDP 7.4% 7.3% 7.4%

12 11.9% 11.7% 11.7%

12 7.9% 7.4% 7.2%

1 49.8 49.5 49.6

11 -0.5% -- -0.6%

2014GDP 2.7% 2.8% 3.2%

7.75% 8.25% 8.25%

12.25% 12.25% 11.75%

1IPCA(12/15-1/15) 0.89% 0.87% 0.79%

12 5.3% 5.5% 5.8%

: Bloomberg

23


(%)

MSCI 1707.74 1.95 -1.25 2.39 -2.32 -0.11 5.52 2051.82 1.60 -1.77 4.44 3.71 -0.34 14.61

1188.93 1.04 -2.16 6.27 3.86 -1.31 3.92 370.37 5.10 7.70 13.20 8.31 8.12 14.05

247.4 4.12 7.03 14.16 7.00 7.16 10.49 225 17511.75 3.84 -1.72 14.52 13.29 0.35 13.78

4424.57 0.53 1.63 10.99 13.74 0.76 18.25

3351.76 -0.73 6.15 45.58 57.61 3.62 63.15 MSCI 990.89 3.49 4.03 0.66 -8.14 3.62 4.32

MSCI 478.28 3.47 5.44 5.72 -1.18 4.55 11.42 MSCI 310.2 4.97 -0.34 -14.18 -26.02 4.60 -24.42 MSCI 2721.61 2.21 0.31 -10.54 -23.35 -0.22 -6.69 MSCI 280.81 4.78 2.19 -5.90 -15.71 3.71 -8.65

Bloomberg 123.66 0.16 2.72 2.99 4.58 2.06 7.00 Bloomberg 133.28 0.36 0.97 2.02 3.58 0.72 7.79 Bloomberg 139.58 0.42 2.79 2.41 3.35 2.09 8.26

Bloomberg 144.57 0.09 -1.10 -4.02 -6.04 -1.20 -2.34 Bloomberg 149.83 0.45 0.21 -2.75 -3.58 0.00 0.47 Bloomberg 160.44 0.73 1.08 1.92 1.48 0.99 5.53 ETF 47.00 1.25 -2.63 -1.55 -4.25 0.23 2.20

Bloomberg 142.00 0.88 0.84 -1.36 -1.51 0.83 6.02 Bloomberg 126.85 0.56 2.19 -0.28 -0.45 1.95 6.25 Bloomberg 151.07 1.14 2.65 3.52 6.17 2.43 15.37

Bloomberg 2015/1/23

24


(%) ()

MSCI 230.04 1.86 -4.47 -11.68 -25.09 -3.27 -13.04 MSCI 221.29 1.59 -1.10 -2.02 -13.89 -0.79 -4.95

MSCI 99.71 1.70 -3.76 -0.97 -4.79 -2.97 0.74 MSCI 185.11 2.36 -1.01 7.08 2.45 -0.59 5.75 MSCI 205.77 1.65 1.55 7.10 3.88 2.93 11.53

MSCI 198.64 2.68 -1.54 2.61 -2.91 -0.34 1.84 MSCI 141.54 3.05 -1.99 6.72 4.61 0.18 16.92 MSCI 69.96 1.94 0.49 2.49 -3.89 2.34 -0.14 MSCI 124.57 1.49 -0.85 -0.85 2.11 1.23 13.98 MSCI 207.54 0.75 2.88 6.69 9.77 3.83 20.19 NBI 3375.88 1.53 5.26 11.77 26.84 6.24 32.36

AMEX 196.37 -2.24 20.62 6.50 -18.77 19.72 -10.58 REITs FTSE 15371.98 0.84 6.59 13.99 17.31 7.89 35.72 REITs FTSE 1885.81 0.65 7.36 15.76 18.40 8.62 38.43 REITs FTSE 1428.48 5.22 13.27 22.50 22.01 13.99 40.49 REITs FTSE 1597.72 0.57 5.09 7.76 2.77 5.05 22.70

(/) 1294.10 1.07 9.98 5.05 -0.81 9.22 2.37 (/) 18.30 2.87 16.12 6.40 -12.51 16.47 -8.70

(/) 5519.50 -3.42 -12.80 -17.55 -21.65 -12.39 -23.40 (/) 48.79 -2.75 -20.91 -43.81 -54.84 -14.90 -54.65 (/) 45.59 -6.37 -20.19 -44.46 -55.79 -14.42 -53.15

CRB 216.61 -3.40 -7.69 -19.84 -27.39 -5.81 -23.33 917.02 -1.85 -7.35 -4.21 -8.94 -4.93 -10.81


25


(%)

1.1204 -3.14 -7.95 -11.40 -16.79 -7.39 -18.20 117.77 -0.22 2.48 -8.07 -13.83 1.71 -12.32 1.4989 -1.06 -3.43 -6.49 -12.06 -3.77 -9.91

0.8801 -2.49 12.24 8.41 2.51 12.98 1.95 1.2420 -3.64 -6.47 -9.58 -13.62 -6.43 -10.61 0.7912 -3.78 -2.38 -9.70 -16.33 -3.22 -9.76

1084.02 -0.63 1.73 -2.57 -5.56 0.64 -0.94 31.3240 0.71 1.38 -2.95 -4.33 1.06 -3.18

6.2287 -0.34 -0.05 -1.75 -0.48 -0.37 -2.83 12459.00 1.04 0.03 -3.18 -7.63 -0.57 -2.36

61.4350 0.71 3.02 -0.25 -2.16 2.62 0.81 32.5660 -0.07 1.05 -0.60 -2.43 1.06 0.97

1.3448 -1.33 -1.44 -5.03 -8.03 -1.44 -4.94 3.6005 -1.17 -2.90 -9.07 -12.03 -2.87 -7.47

44.1700 1.13 1.13 1.44 -2.13 1.25 2.56

11.4047 1.26 2.15 -3.75 -7.82 1.45 -3.61 2.3499 -1.03 -1.24 -4.85 -11.12 -0.63 -2.44 63.7056 2.45 -14.12 -34.50 -45.32 -4.66 -46.49 3.7526 -0.70 -5.85 -10.88 -18.15 -5.57 -18.65 276.47 -0.45 -6.07 -11.96 -17.42 -5.36 -19.34

3.9903 -2.51 -7.77 -12.36 -17.78 -7.23 -17.08

2.5802 1.61 4.44 -3.11 -13.98 3.00 -7.00

14.6572 -0.68 0.70 -7.47 -11.76 0.64 -8.57 8.6267 -0.30 -0.87 -1.60 -5.32 -1.87 -12.18


26


(%) () (bp)

30 2.3735 -8.0 -47.8 -67.0 -89.0 -37.8 -130.9

10 1.7968 -4.0 -46.5 -47.4 -66.9 -37.4 -98.0

0.2340 -0.9 -10.4 -24.4 -30.3 -9.5 -42.7

0.3620 -9.2 -23.0 -54.0 -78.4 -17.9 -134.7

0.3620 -9.2 -23.0 -54.0 -78.4 -17.9 -134.7

0.5430 -9.0 -32.5 -75.7 -99.9 -28.3 -188.1

1.5270 -13.1 -41.7 -97.6 -121.4 -36.3 -233.4

1.3750 -12.7 -29.5 -81.1 -118.1 -23.6 -237.7

2.4500 -8.0 -25.1 -83.3 -124.3 -23.7 -270.6

2.0850 -19.3 -42.4 -55.4 -114.2 -43.3 -226.5

6.9700 -32.0 -105.0 -186.0 -190.0 -105.0 -340.0

13.0271 -45.6 -19.1 316.3 391.6 2.0 488.3

2.8400 -37.0 -76.0 -125.0 -131.0 -76.0 -257.0

7.1750 -20.3 -82.0 -73.7 -94.1 -79.4 -130.6

11.7170 -31.2 -71.3 -50.6 10.0 29.9 84.1

5.3200 -9.7 -59.9 -59.9 -30.2 -52.4 -116.9

2.3320 -1.3 -33.8 -39.0 -64.5 -27.3 -132.3

7.2830 -50.2 -60.4 -75.2 -76.8 -51.3 -138.3

7.7060 -0.1 -21.6 -65.1 -95.7 -15.1 -96.6

9 2.4760 6.8 -29.8 -58.5 -103.5 -12.5 -145.0


27


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詹姆士看天下 2015/01/26

Economy & Finance