詹姆士看天下 2015/04/13

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/04/13

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/04/13
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/4/10 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.24 394 381 297 6.46 480 460 335 8.42 784 732 461 3.86 252 242 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4/7 : Bloomberg 2015/4/10 (%) 5.75 (&) 4.24 6.46 % % 8.82 -0.68 -0.28 -0.01 0.04 0.19 0.21 0.5 0.56 0.7 0.77 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 5.6 4.2 4.1 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.4 0.8 3.4 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 : Bloomberg 2015/4/10 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l 50 l 13 5.9 -20.1 -6.3 0.4 5.1 0.5 -0.1 5.8 1.5 0.6 0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -2.1 -2.4 -2.8 -3.3 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/4/10 120.22$1207.58 1.947% $1.0604 $51.64
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 10.5 7.9 7.4 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 7 : Bloomberg 2015/4/10 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (10.5%)(7.9%)(4.4%)A 4000 (7.4%) RTS1000 (3.8%3.4%3.3%)
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 50 6 350.13 47 20010 7 2 32000 39400 AMSCI 6 1 2015/4/7 - 0302 () () 0404 () - 4220 () 4202 () H AH()3 H
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 3 3 6 2% 41 12 6%571100 3 2.5%4.5% 2.2% 76% 2015/4/8 ( ) 3830 () 3868 () 8360 () () ( ) 0423 () 0424 () ()- ( ) 4530 () 4584 () 4532 () 4533 ()
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 8119 IMF4.5 24 10 412%11% QE3525 600 8 10-0.055% QE QE41 12500 20157.45%20162017 2015/4/9 () 2695 () 8925 ()
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/4/10()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/4/10()
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 3 GDP 4/13() (4/13-15)3M2 12.4% 12.5% 3 9.0% 48.3% 3 -10.0% -20.5% 4/14() 3 1.0% -0.6% 3 0.2% -0.5% 3 0.2% 0.3% 2 0.4% -0.1% 4/15() 3 -0.3% 0.1% 0.05% 0.05% GDP 7.0% 7.3% 4/16() 3 104.0 89.7 3 -- 0.6% 4/17() 3 0.3% 0.2% 3 0.3% 0.2% 4 94.0 93.0
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. GDP A IMF4.58 QE 3 50 1200
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) QE 2 4000 6.3% 4 (40%) IMF4.58QE QE (2015/4/13)
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 3 201562016 2015 QE3525 600810 100 811694.5 24
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. BA BBBA AB 1.75% 20153.4%3.1%1.9%0.9% 2.25% 7.5% 9
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 40 10 281.5% (LIBOR)2.5% 13% 9
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 3ISM 56.5 56.5 56.9 3 59.2 -- 58.5 3 -0.3 -- 2.0 2JOLTS 513.3 500.7 496.5 4Sentix 20.8 20.8 18.6 2 2.8% 2.8% 3.7% 2 0.5% 0.5% -0.1% 2 0.2% 0.1% -0.4% 2 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% : Bloomberg
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2() 1.44 1.20 614 3 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 3 -4.6% -4.8% -4.8% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 3 16.9% 16.8% 16.7% 2() 136 132 150 2() 32 28 20.1 3IPCA 1.32% 1.39% 1.22% 0.7% 0.4% -1.9% 3.8% 1.5% -3.5% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 4/7 MSCI 1779.47 0.85 3.47 6.04 10.28 4.08 8.61 2102.06 1.03 2.37 3.91 12.13 2.10 15.77 1264.78 0.34 2.65 7.13 20.53 4.99 13.80 412.93 3.80 4.11 19.77 28.41 20.55 25.60 279.63 3.99 3.89 19.10 33.65 21.11 21.49 225 19907.63 2.63 3.39 16.50 30.11 14.08 42.60 4806.88 0.71 4.39 8.69 20.65 9.47 39.94 4034.31 4.41 19.61 24.70 70.51 24.72 89.36 MSCI 1034.59 2.86 10.11 7.78 4.35 8.19 1.89 MSCI 509.84 4.03 9.36 10.17 13.67 11.45 12.21 MSCI 326.76 1.53 15.41 9.59 -9.93 10.18 -19.68 MSCI 2614.23 -0.30 11.73 -0.92 -20.29 -4.16 -20.66 MSCI 290.82 1.02 11.85 6.52 -1.71 7.40 -9.34 Bloomberg 123.13 -0.28 1.16 0.40 2.68 1.63 5.44 Bloomberg 134.32 0.19 -0.02 1.33 2.71 1.51 6.87 Bloomberg 140.14 -0.01 1.33 1.20 2.76 2.50 6.12 Bloomberg 148.14 0.04 1.05 1.78 -0.84 1.24 -2.49 Bloomberg 155.50 0.77 1.46 3.89 1.96 3.78 1.96 Bloomberg 164.12 0.50 0.30 3.10 4.22 3.31 5.29 ETF 48.55 0.56 3.47 3.56 5.44 3.54 5.46 Bloomberg 145.91 0.70 2.79 3.76 1.89 3.61 5.20 Bloomberg 125.89 -0.68 2.15 0.79 0.00 1.18 2.56 Bloomberg 153.36 0.21 2.18 3.50 6.96 3.98 12.20 Bloomberg 2015/4/10
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () 4/7 MSCI 236.57 1.75 8.52 7.18 -6.10 -0.52 -15.22 MSCI 229.93 0.45 1.91 5.13 5.11 3.08 -4.69 MSCI 104.82 0.15 3.02 5.55 6.65 2.00 4.88 MSCI 200.72 0.74 2.76 9.76 20.40 7.79 16.69 MSCI 208.73 0.43 3.71 4.05 9.90 4.41 9.74 MSCI 207.50 1.21 2.76 6.71 12.66 4.10 5.58 MSCI 145.80 0.91 2.34 5.04 14.53 3.20 21.13 MSCI 70.22 -0.85 2.05 2.95 4.81 2.72 1.47 MSCI 117.83 -0.32 4.50 4.50 0.72 -4.25 -0.02 MSCI 220.62 2.37 4.38 7.96 18.79 10.37 27.66 NBI 3739.19 5.42 3.45 13.43 39.12 17.68 66.07 AMEX 171.18 -1.21 6.55 -7.23 -11.15 4.36 -24.11 REITs FTSE 14563.64 -3.27 0.88 -2.76 13.18 2.22 21.36 REITs FTSE 1775.82 -3.73 0.76 -3.33 14.26 2.29 21.50 REITs FTSE 1551.74 4.18 4.90 18.62 38.70 23.83 47.36 REITs FTSE 1573.76 1.94 4.25 0.14 7.99 3.47 12.64 (/) 1207.58 -0.60 3.94 -1.22 -1.27 1.92 -8.44 (/) 16.47 -3.11 5.06 -0.71 -5.34 4.80 -17.88 (/) 6039.00 0.99 4.75 -0.84 -9.12 -4.14 -9.26 (/) 57.87 -0.43 2.62 15.49 -35.85 0.94 -46.15 (/) 51.64 -0.96 6.94 6.78 -39.83 -3.06 -50.06 CRB 217.12 -1.32 3.05 -1.17 -21.22 -5.58 -29.82 891.10 -1.22 0.04 -7.43 -4.55 -7.62 -22.71 : Bloomberg 2015/4/10
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 4/7 1.0604 -2.91 -0.88 -10.39 -16.03 -12.35 -23.64 120.22 -0.57 0.76 -1.56 -10.45 -0.37 -15.55 1.4632 -1.67 -2.91 -3.55 -8.98 -6.07 -12.83 0.9791 -2.13 2.08 3.65 -2.25 1.55 -10.48 1.2566 -0.67 0.98 -4.71 -10.88 -7.52 -12.97 0.7682 1.19 0.73 -5.82 -11.56 -6.03 -18.39 1092.68 -0.71 2.75 -1.02 -2.03 -0.16 -4.81 31.2260 -1.00 1.01 2.02 -2.62 1.38 -3.92 6.2087 -0.23 0.86 -0.08 -1.25 -0.05 0.06 12927.00 0.25 1.29 -2.54 -5.45 -4.17 -12.14 62.3200 -0.21 0.74 -0.30 -1.58 1.16 -3.61 32.5450 -0.31 0.51 1.03 -0.25 1.12 -0.84 1.3682 -1.03 1.63 -2.48 -6.70 -3.12 -8.63 3.6670 -0.98 1.01 -2.73 -11.16 -4.63 -12.11 44.3850 0.01 -0.18 1.13 0.93 0.75 -0.17 11.9962 -1.66 3.09 -3.92 -7.30 -3.55 -12.71 2.6286 -2.24 0.37 -13.06 -12.98 -11.17 -19.81 53.5858 3.38 16.55 17.83 -24.67 13.34 -33.71 3.7932 -1.66 2.52 -4.77 -12.55 -6.58 -20.74 280.01 -2.25 2.60 -4.16 -13.59 -6.56 -21.42 4.1567 -2.79 -0.02 -8.79 -16.10 -10.94 -22.73 3.0754 1.62 0.84 -13.06 -21.02 -13.59 -28.24 15.2263 -2.06 2.61 -3.76 -11.47 -3.12 -14.21 8.8484 -0.25 -0.89 -2.90 -4.31 -4.33 -9.58 : Bloomberg 2015/4/10
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 4/7 30 2.5791 2.6 -14.4 5.1 -43.3 -17.3 -94.0 10 1.9473 5.2 -18.2 0.2 -33.3 -22.4 -70.0 0.3450 0.5 -12.4 6.6 -16.0 1.6 -26.4 0.1550 -3.9 -7.9 -33.7 -73.2 -38.6 -136.5 0.1550 -3.9 -7.9 -33.7 -73.2 -38.6 -136.5 0.4340 -5.1 -9.0 -34.6 -81.8 -39.2 -158.4 1.2660 -3.5 4.7 -61.3 -105.7 -62.4 -190.0 1.2320 1.1 -1.0 -49.1 -83.6 -37.9 -193.7 1.6110 -9.8 -9.4 -103.2 -134.6 -107.6 -226.2 2.2940 3.4 -18.1 -3.5 -46.0 -22.4 -172.1 8.4500 29.0 6.0 111.0 -102.0 43.0 -155.0 10.9459 -52.5 -191.6 -256.0 108.2 -206.1 202.0 3.2500 -3.0 -24.0 -23.0 -99.0 -35.0 -233.0 7.7050 -0.5 -27.8 7.5 -41.7 -26.4 -55.1 12.5780 -21.9 -55.5 40.9 105.9 21.4 -8.4 5.7530 -1.3 -32.3 12.2 -16.4 -9.1 -38.2 2.0750 1.0 -31.2 -46.0 -74.2 -53.0 -146.0 7.2480 -4.0 -43.3 -67.0 -114.3 -54.8 -61.7 7.7980 7.5 4.9 -4.8 -65.8 -5.9 -120.3 9 2.5760 4.0 -16.2 13.7 -67.0 -2.5 -135.0 : Bloomberg 2015/4/10
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright2015EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.