詹姆士看天下 2015/05/25

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/05/25

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/05/25
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/5/22 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.33 376 375 297 6.44 455 447 335 8.07 686 682 461 3.83 231 221 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/5/22 (%) 5.91 (&) 4.33 6.44 % % 8.07 -0.63 -0.63 -0.58 -0.40 0.06 0.07 0.14 0.15 0.47 0.55 -0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -1.8 -3.3 -5.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.2 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 5 : Bloomberg 2015/5/22 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l l 564 3.1 -3.2 3.7 -1.5 0.1 -2.5 -4.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -2.2 -2.7 -3.1 -4.1-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/5/22 121.54 $1206.202.209% $1.1013 $59.72
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 8.1 4.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -2.1 -2.2 -5.0-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 7 : Bloomberg 2015/5/22 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (8.1%) 224600 (4.5%)6.2% 16.5 12.3 (-5.02%) (-2.2%)Gazprom
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 12 () 2 514163 220 (GST) 2%3%1947 32 5 2003115 7 4
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. - 4005 () 2422 () 2592 () 1416 220 32.1% 3%4.9%4 5.25%4.87% IMF4 7.5% 3312% MSCI 0.490.64 2015/5/ 17
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/5/22()
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/5/22()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg GDP 5/25() 4() -3400 2274 5/26() 4 -0.5% 4.0% 4 50.0 48.1 5 95.2 95.2 5/27() 4 1.0% -2.3% 0.75 0.75 5/28() 4 0.7% 1.1% 5 0.2% 1.0% 5/29() GDP -0.9 0.2 GDP 2.5% 2.4% 4CPI 0.6% 2.3%
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 GDP 460022 785 6 56 55325% 60 OPEC OPEC 1200
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) S&P500Nasdaq6 6FOMC QE 4 7 4 (40%) 56 (2015/5/25)
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 64 6 22 2% 4CPI( )0.3%30.2%20131 4113.5320.2%200711 5040.8% 33.3%
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 5678 56 22 7 PMI5PMIPMI53.953.4 PMI52.052.34 PMI52.151.448.049.3
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 7 71 3000 2.4%1.6% 49.950.950 50 51100
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. IMF GDP3.4IMF 4GDP-3.8-1.1 GDP-2.5%-3%GDP 1.9% 530
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 113.5 101.5 94.4 4 504 523 521 4 0.7 0.3 0.4 5PMI 53.8 54.5 54.1 4CPI 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 4CPI 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 5 54 57 56 5PMI 53.4 53.9 53.9 5PMI 52.3 51.8 52.0 5 -5.5 -4.8 -4.6 5PMI 51.4 52.0 52.1 5ZEW 41.9 49.0 53.3 5IFO 108.5 108.3 108.6 : Bloomberg
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1GDP 2.4% 1.6% 1.1% 3 2.9% -6.0% 5.9% 5 50.9 50.3 49.9 GDP 3.37% 3.50% 3.46% 5 49.1 49.3 48.9 7.5 7.5 7.5% 7.5 7.5 7.5% IBGE4 0.60% 0.59% 1.07% 4 6.4% 6.3% 6.2% 4 -4.5% -1.2% -0.6% 4 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1803.50 -0.20 0.20 1.50 3.48 5.49 6.22 2126.06 0.16 0.40 0.58 2.86 3.26 11.87 1252.22 0.67 -1.21 1.39 5.55 3.95 11.19 407.74 2.85 -0.17 5.42 17.75 19.03 19.31 279.40 1.90 1.41 6.28 22.69 21.02 20.68 225 20264.41 2.69 1.22 9.04 16.41 16.12 40.12 4886.49 1.27 1.06 7.69 15.58 11.28 43.35 4657.60 8.10 6.01 44.25 81.40 43.99 128.92 MSCI 1037.62 -0.55 -2.16 4.51 2.83 8.50 -0.51 MSCI 510.58 0.89 -2.15 6.52 10.19 11.61 9.95 MSCI 340.71 -3.14 1.73 7.93 -6.10 14.88 -21.34 MSCI 2612.47 -5.54 -4.43 -1.41 -15.68 -4.22 -21.57 MSCI 294.27 -1.78 -0.21 2.04 -4.74 8.68 -13.73 Bloomberg 121.37 -0.40 -1.22 -0.23 1.07 0.17 3.18 Bloomberg 132.49 0.06 -1.19 -0.95 0.76 0.12 4.21 Bloomberg 137.09 -0.63 -1.98 -0.79 1.19 0.26 2.64 Bloomberg 150.37 -0.58 1.01 1.77 0.63 2.77 -1.65 Bloomberg 156.96 0.07 0.50 2.51 2.61 4.75 1.91 Bloomberg 163.99 0.15 0.44 1.10 3.21 3.22 4.48 ETF 49.04 0.55 0.70 2.02 0.23 4.59 2.72 Bloomberg 146.68 0.14 0.34 3.10 2.06 4.15 3.88 Bloomberg 126.24 -0.63 -0.21 0.49 -0.62 1.46 0.49 Bloomberg 151.89 0.47 -1.15 0.88 3.32 2.98 8.19 Bloomberg 2015/5/22
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.1013 -3.82 1.04 -3.14 -11.78 -9.04 -19.36 121.54 -1.92 -2.05 -2.20 -2.93 -1.44 -16.12 1.5490 -1.51 1.61 -0.28 -1.43 -0.60 -8.07 0.9435 -2.98 1.27 0.57 2.23 5.44 -5.12 1.2279 -2.21 -1.69 1.16 -8.43 -5.47 -11.67 0.7823 -2.63 -0.52 -0.89 -8.36 -4.38 -15.37 1090.11 -0.41 -2.46 -0.09 0.83 -0.83 -6.92 30.4830 -0.11 1.94 4.02 1.52 3.85 -1.09 6.1974 0.15 -0.04 0.95 -0.89 0.13 0.61 13158.00 -0.57 -1.43 -2.39 -7.65 -5.94 -12.09 63.5212 -0.01 -1.08 -1.90 -2.50 -0.75 -7.97 33.4800 0.01 -2.61 -2.84 -2.06 -1.68 -2.66 1.3366 -1.20 -0.64 1.23 -2.69 -0.84 -6.22 3.5845 -0.56 0.74 1.47 -6.49 -2.43 -10.39 44.5490 -0.19 -0.68 -1.24 0.82 0.24 -2.11 11.8919 -0.80 0.81 -3.85 -7.92 -2.84 -13.02 2.5991 -0.92 2.88 -4.30 -14.64 -10.19 -19.85 50.0021 -0.95 4.16 22.98 -7.81 21.61 -31.53 3.7307 -5.69 -2.43 -2.48 -10.83 -5.60 -18.73 278.73 -4.21 -1.61 -4.24 -12.38 -6.60 -20.77 4.0469 -4.34 -0.03 -3.94 -12.34 -8.69 -20.40 3.0942 -3.25 -2.70 -6.97 -17.71 -14.11 -28.38 15.2660 -1.72 0.55 -2.22 -10.44 -3.38 -15.70 8.9715 -0.28 -1.03 -2.93 -5.08 -5.65 -10.13 : Bloomberg 2015/5/22
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 2.9841 5.5 37.4 41.4 2.4 23.2 -40.9 10 2.2092 6.7 30.1 24.0 -4.8 3.8 -32.3 0.4190 1.5 12.9 7.9 -3.3 9.0 -17.3 0.6040 -2.0 43.9 23.7 -16.6 6.3 -80.4 0.6040 -2.0 43.9 23.7 -16.6 6.3 -80.4 0.8950 -0.6 48.0 21.1 -21.6 6.9 -92.5 1.8570 8.6 46.5 28.0 -35.6 -3.3 -138.6 1.7820 5.0 41.0 28.0 -23.1 17.1 -126.9 2.4290 14.2 42.3 20.2 -57.2 -25.8 -140.2 2.8080 -2.9 33.0 47.7 32.1 29.0 -92.1 9.1100 11.0 20.0 123.0 86.0 109.0 -2.0 10.3074 -16.7 -63.4 -190.7 14.5 -269.9 144.6 3.5100 -10.0 24.0 25.0 -10.0 -9.0 -149.0 8.0390 6.3 1.6 39.4 32.2 7.0 -0.2 12.1700 -27.6 -40.2 -75.6 -3.4 -19.4 -10.4 5.9360 3.7 8.8 30.6 8.1 9.2 4.6 2.4770 -3.0 30.0 9.7 -25.3 -12.8 -93.0 8.0800 9.9 52.9 93.8 31.8 28.4 5.0 * 7.8570 -8.8 10.4 16.2 -31.3 0.0 -85.5 9 2.8030 -6.1 27.7 1.6 -50.1 7.4 -86.0 : Bloomberg 2015/5/22
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 238.16 -1.30 -2.50 -0.63 -8.73 0.15 -19.15 MSCI 236.60 -1.54 0.85 -1.59 1.57 6.07 -4.51 MSCI 106.88 -0.38 0.95 2.74 2.67 4.01 4.84 MSCI 202.32 0.34 -0.02 1.96 9.19 8.65 14.17 MSCI 208.02 -0.99 -0.12 -0.20 2.87 4.05 5.65 MSCI 209.00 -0.21 0.74 0.50 2.45 4.86 3.24 MSCI 149.59 0.32 0.54 1.73 5.32 5.88 18.38 MSCI 72.44 -0.22 -0.41 0.91 1.49 5.97 0.63 MSCI 119.48 -0.04 -0.37 -0.37 -2.03 -2.91 -0.14 MSCI 222.36 0.79 0.32 4.18 9.80 11.24 21.55 NBI 3814.36 2.43 0.18 7.41 21.72 20.04 55.66 AMEX 171.28 -5.51 -1.45 -8.56 -4.80 4.42 -20.75 REITs FTSE 14204.10 -1.13 -2.63 -3.30 2.12 -0.31 11.97 REITs FTSE 1725.06 -1.28 -2.96 -3.69 2.60 -0.64 12.04 REITs FTSE 1503.47 0.22 -0.76 2.57 22.87 19.97 32.59 REITs FTSE 1542.69 -1.57 -1.83 -2.85 3.62 1.43 6.06 (/) 1206.20 -1.46 2.09 -0.08 0.26 1.62 -6.84 (/) 17.11 -2.27 4.24 3.19 2.45 8.83 -12.03 (/) 6161.50 -3.95 4.24 8.23 -8.38 -2.20 -10.38 (/) 65.37 -2.16 0.25 6.18 -16.46 14.15 -40.80 (/) 59.72 0.05 4.95 17.63 -19.04 12.60 -42.52 CRB 225.56 -2.55 0.67 0.72 -15.47 -1.91 -26.83 875.80 -1.70 -0.18 -4.74 -9.41 -9.21 -22.78 : Bloomberg 2015/5/22
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright2015EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.