詹姆士看天下 2015/06/08

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/06/08

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/06/08
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/6/5 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.51 382 386 297 6.65 452 456 335 8.56 720 721 461 4.00 229 224 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/6/5 (%) 6.10 (&) 4.51 6.65 % % 8.56 -1.52 -1.30 -1.27 -1.24 -1.23 -0.81 -0.77 -0.63 -0.62 -0.42 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -2.4 -3.5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 5 : Bloomberg 2015/6/5 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l 5 l l OPEC60 13.5 73.3 24.6 -1.6-1.9-0.3-1.3 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.2-0.7-0.8-2.4-2.7-4.7-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/6/5 125.63$1172.00 2.408% $1.1114 $59.13
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 8.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.7 -1.7 -1.9 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 -3.8 -4.8 -4.8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 7 : Bloomberg 2015/6/5 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (8.9%) 5000 (1.5%)570 (-4.8%) (-4.8%)2
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 9 57(1927)15% 286% 294% 28 2.36 528526 A 29 623237 81 B 5 (FTSE)A VanguardAETF10 MSCIA 6 6-3.77% 20076 2015/6/3 Bloomberg 2015/6/2
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 PMI 5PMI4 50.150.2 PMI 5 SDR IMF()529 G7 SDR() IMF IMF G7SDR SDRIMF5 SDR5 2015/6/3 () 0404 () 4820() 4802() 4803() 0302 () PMI
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/6/5()
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/6/5()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 55 6/8() 4 0.6% -0.5% GDP 2.7% 2.4% 6/9() GDP 1.0% 1.0% 5CPI 1.3% 1.5% 5PPI -4.5% -4.6% 6/10() (6/10-6/15)5M2 10.5% 10.1% 6/11() 5 0.9% 0.0% 1.75% 1.75% 5 6.0% 5.9% 6/12() 6 91.5 90.7 4 0.4% -0.3%
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. FOMC 6 MSCI OPEC3000OPEC 1200
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) QE 2 (40%) (2015/6/8)
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. OPECOPEC63 OPEC 3531203 555.4%5.5% 2822.65 24.962.32
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 3(ECB) ECB 0.3%201620171.5% 1.8% 664 15
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. MERSMERS363 1600MERS1400 MERS 1100
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 50004 5,000 51400 6799.9% 41%25% 16.5%13%10% 2002
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 4 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 4ISM 52.8 52.0 51.5 4 409 440 506 4 -0.4% -0.1% 2.2% 5ADP 20.1 20.0 16.5 5 28.0 22.6 22.1 5 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5CPI 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 4 1.4% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% : Bloomberg
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 7.3% -0.2% 2.8% 5PMI 50.2 50.3 50.1 5PMI 49.2 49.2 49.1 7.25% 7.25% 7.50% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 4() 38.88 21.00 12.31 GDP 2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 13.75% 13.75% 13.25% 4 -7.6% -8.1% -3.4% 5CPI 15.8% 15.9% 16.4% 5CPI 8.09% 8.20% 7.91% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1760.43 -1.06 -1.91 1.06 1.97 2.97 1.50 2092.83 -0.69 -1.10 1.04 1.58 1.65 7.36 1261.01 1.16 2.11 3.57 8.04 4.67 8.22 389.00 -2.72 -2.79 -1.31 11.59 13.56 12.01 269.20 -2.21 -1.46 0.78 16.13 16.60 11.94 225 20460.90 -0.50 5.58 7.85 14.08 17.25 35.71 4969.77 1.45 3.91 9.24 13.09 13.18 39.24 5023.10 8.92 19.43 54.98 66.31 55.29 147.45 MSCI 982.14 -2.20 -5.10 1.12 0.54 2.70 -6.01 MSCI 487.95 -2.21 -3.02 2.24 5.26 6.66 4.78 MSCI 308.02 -3.84 -10.21 1.37 -7.76 3.86 -30.63 MSCI 2482.52 -0.55 -9.57 0.78 -11.25 -8.99 -25.81 MSCI 267.03 -3.49 -9.28 -2.97 -5.99 -1.38 -21.37 Bloomberg 120.48 -1.30 -1.03 -1.11 0.31 -0.56 2.55 Bloomberg 131.12 -1.27 -1.27 -2.14 -0.23 -0.91 2.91 Bloomberg 135.67 -1.52 -1.59 -2.12 0.02 -0.77 1.65 Bloomberg 149.57 -0.42 -0.43 0.99 1.06 2.22 -2.61 Bloomberg 156.01 -0.63 -0.31 1.16 3.17 4.12 0.79 Bloomberg 162.97 -0.62 -0.31 -0.41 1.92 2.58 3.20 ETF 48.83 -0.77 1.45 3.45 0.40 4.14 0.76 Bloomberg 144.65 -1.23 -0.82 1.04 1.45 2.71 1.63 Bloomberg 124.33 -0.81 -1.43 -0.62 -1.15 -0.07 -1.37 Bloomberg 149.56 -1.24 -1.86 -1.57 0.84 1.40 5.88 Bloomberg 2015/6/5
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.1114 1.17 -0.82 2.35 -9.82 -8.19 -18.29 125.63 -1.19 -4.69 -3.58 -3.95 -4.67 -18.40 1.5270 -0.14 -1.21 0.93 -2.46 -1.98 -9.14 0.9397 0.06 -1.07 4.84 3.80 5.73 -4.60 1.2444 0.08 -3.11 1.17 -7.85 -6.72 -12.47 0.7623 -0.29 -3.92 -1.05 -8.11 -6.78 -18.54 1111.14 -0.27 -2.59 -0.91 0.25 -1.81 -8.15 30.9370 -0.79 -0.81 1.80 0.65 2.32 -2.84 6.2028 -0.08 0.05 1.02 -0.81 0.04 0.83 13290.00 -0.50 -1.72 -2.26 -7.46 -6.79 -10.76 63.7550 0.11 -0.49 -2.48 -3.09 -1.12 -6.94 33.9100 -0.62 -1.05 -3.89 -2.67 -2.95 -4.39 1.3577 -0.73 -2.21 1.63 -2.86 -2.43 -8.00 3.7190 -1.40 -2.90 -1.89 -6.66 -5.96 -13.19 44.8700 -0.64 -0.62 -1.65 -0.65 -0.33 -2.41 12.5792 -3.51 -5.45 -4.09 -8.44 -8.21 -15.58 2.6607 0.08 -1.89 -5.33 -17.46 -15.04 -24.07 56.1260 -7.23 -9.40 7.40 -4.27 8.08 -38.92 3.7424 -0.02 -3.36 1.45 -9.64 -5.23 -19.28 280.61 0.30 -3.86 0.26 -11.48 -6.82 -20.55 4.0075 0.88 -0.41 2.79 -9.44 -7.01 -18.89 3.1424 1.14 -2.74 -4.44 -17.63 -15.43 -28.01 15.7115 -2.17 -3.77 -1.51 -8.47 -6.12 -17.08 9.0139 -0.25 -1.08 -2.91 -5.08 -6.09 -9.82 : Bloomberg 2015/6/5
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 3.1136 23.2 20.1 38.5 14.7 36.2 -32.3 10 2.4076 28.6 22.2 29.2 10.1 23.6 -17.5 0.4910 9.7 12.8 8.7 7.0 16.2 -12.7 0.8440 35.7 32.8 49.6 6.4 30.3 -56.1 0.8440 35.7 32.8 49.6 6.4 30.3 -56.1 1.1640 36.8 34.6 51.7 13.3 33.8 -62.9 2.2420 39.4 43.5 93.7 26.5 35.2 -69.1 2.2240 38.6 44.4 94.3 39.1 61.3 -60.0 2.9490 38.2 55.7 115.5 20.2 26.2 -69.5 3.1590 22.7 39.1 86.4 53.8 64.1 -47.9 9.3200 18.0 -12.0 113.0 121.0 130.0 35.0 10.9096 40.0 51.2 -160.7 -73.8 -209.7 234.0 3.6100 21.0 13.0 45.0 2.0 1.0 -111.0 8.4100 24.9 32.3 68.7 64.5 44.1 7.9 12.5350 31.4 -35.7 -27.9 43.1 17.1 26.4 6.2880 30.5 21.2 46.0 27.4 44.4 32.4 2.4660 16.1 -3.0 11.1 -25.8 -13.9 -91.4 8.5260 35.8 56.7 112.2 67.5 73.0 49.3 * 7.7890 14.6 -6.3 8.2 -14.9 -6.8 -74.1 9 2.9710 23.7 49.6 32.9 6.0 24.2 -83.6 : Bloomberg 2015/6/5
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 229.03 -1.33 -6.01 0.35 -1.34 -3.69 -23.54 MSCI 228.54 -1.78 -4.06 -1.30 0.83 2.46 -8.43 MSCI 104.69 -0.50 -1.78 2.11 0.13 1.88 -0.37 MSCI 198.58 -0.56 -1.04 1.20 6.94 6.64 9.59 MSCI 199.87 -2.61 -3.78 -2.71 -0.90 -0.03 0.64 MSCI 204.58 -0.31 -1.26 0.81 2.20 2.64 -1.89 MSCI 147.50 -0.87 -0.08 1.48 4.18 4.40 13.64 MSCI 70.25 -1.54 -3.16 0.29 -0.87 2.76 -3.67 MSCI 114.35 -3.55 -3.55 -3.55 -7.25 -7.08 -6.56 MSCI 218.51 -0.97 0.01 3.70 5.40 9.32 17.77 NBI 3842.44 0.54 4.29 7.22 17.24 20.93 49.48 AMEX 159.54 -4.36 -9.35 -4.24 -4.70 -2.74 -23.49 REITs FTSE 13749.06 -2.15 -3.74 -2.84 -2.46 -3.50 5.67 REITs FTSE 1664.52 -2.36 -4.11 -3.24 -2.89 -4.12 5.34 REITs FTSE 1414.90 -4.49 -3.96 -4.09 14.05 12.91 18.46 REITs FTSE 1467.57 -3.36 -4.33 -5.73 -1.86 -3.51 -0.32 (/) 1172.00 -1.56 -1.55 0.23 -2.79 -1.26 -6.65 (/) 16.11 -3.80 -2.55 1.76 -1.95 2.14 -15.86 (/) 5937.00 -1.30 -8.38 1.75 -7.97 -5.76 -12.43 (/) 63.31 -3.43 -3.67 5.46 -4.83 9.87 -42.00 (/) 59.13 -1.94 -0.96 18.56 -6.71 10.42 -42.70 CRB 222.53 -0.29 -2.89 1.09 -10.32 -3.23 -27.10 890.28 2.91 1.43 -0.77 -8.35 -7.71 -18.38 : Bloomberg 2015/6/5
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright2015EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.