詹姆士看天下 2015/08/10

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/08/10

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/08/10
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 129.30 112.59 49.40 38.90 54.34 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2015/6/302005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/8/7 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.87 429 439 297 7.40 536 552 335 8.69 742 759 461 4.12 251 252 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/8/7 (%) 4.12 (&) 4.87 7.40 % % 8.69 -0.75 -0.63 -0.57 -0.55 -0.37 -0.11 -0.02 0.07 0.10 0.15 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. -0.9 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -3.5 -4.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 5 : Bloomberg 2015/8/7 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l l -0.8 2.6 1.2 -0.2 -6.9 -2.1 -1.1 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 -0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4 -0.8-1.2 -1.8 -2.5 -3.8 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/8/7 124.24 $1094.05 2.162% $1.0967 $43.87
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2.2 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.9 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.1 -3.9 -4.5-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 7 : Bloomberg 2015/8/7 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (2.2%) (1.6%1.4%) (-4.5%)-1.8% (-3.9%)
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 9 S&P500 6FOMC 31 Q2
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (57.6%) (13.6%) 34 1002001120 100110 () ()2015/8/4 10 K - 0309 () 3829 () 8342 ()
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/8/7()
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/8/7()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg GDP 8/10() (8/10~8/15)7 7000 12791 (8/10~8/15)7M2 11.7% 11.8% 8/11() 6 0.3% 0.8% 8/12() 7 10.6% 10.6% 7 10.4% 10.4% 7 1.0k 7.0k 8/13() 1.50% 1.50% 7 0.4% -0.3% 8/14() 7PPI 0.1% 0.4% 7 0.3% 0.3% 8 94.0 93.1 GDP 0.4% 0.4%
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () 7 (57.6%) (13.6%) 342 1072/10801100
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) QE Biogen (40%) (2015/8/10)
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 7FED 21.522.5622.3 23.175.3% 0.2% 3 2030200532% 2
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 81 0.5%3,750 5CPI0.6%0.3% 1.5% 516% 36 4818 20
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. T+13 T+1 4 4 20156(++) 2.4%7 62.9%20155 ()246 74 2 7 38,5006.3%6.1%
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. IMF(IMF) 3.4%12.5% 20167.8%IMF IMF2016 1.5% 511% 87166
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 7ISM 52.7 53.5 53.5 6 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 6 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 6 1.8% 1.8% -1.1% 7 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 7 21.5 22.5 23.1 7PMI 52.4 52.2 52.2 6 -0.6% -0.2% 0.1% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 7 0.4% 0.4% -0.2% 6 2.0% 0.3% -0.2% 6 -1.4% 0.3% 0.0% : Bloomberg
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 7PMI 47.8 48.3 48.2 7 -8.3% -1.4% 2.8% 7 -8.1% -8.0% -6.1% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 7PMI 52.6 -- 52.2 7PMI 48.3 48.8 48.7 7PMI 50.1 49.4 49.0 7CPI 6.81% 6.83% 7.20% 7IBGEIPCA 9.56% 9.52% 8.89% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1747.34 -1.03 0.23 -2.64 1.25 2.20 3.36 2077.57 -1.25 0.05 -1.82 0.43 0.91 7.56 1206.90 -2.57 -3.60 -2.27 0.31 0.18 6.68 397.07 0.18 2.13 -0.77 6.47 15.92 22.21 270.77 -0.87 1.05 -0.89 7.43 17.28 25.78 225 20724.56 0.68 4.58 6.74 17.18 18.54 39.97 5048.22 -0.56 3.79 5.23 14.45 14.62 31.87 3744.21 2.20 -2.00 -9.65 20.96 17.48 73.17 MSCI 885.07 -1.84 -5.12 -14.48 -8.46 -7.45 -15.35 MSCI 433.84 -1.30 -4.23 -13.77 -7.39 -5.17 -8.51 MSCI 279.65 -4.65 -8.38 -18.48 -6.40 -5.71 -28.01 MSCI 2208.79 -4.16 -10.12 -19.54 -14.06 -19.02 -34.47 MSCI 256.84 -2.08 -4.47 -12.74 -7.60 -5.14 -19.22 Bloomberg 122.54 0.15 0.70 0.78 -0.07 1.15 3.30 Bloomberg 131.90 0.07 0.89 -0.49 -1.17 -0.32 2.16 Bloomberg 136.55 -0.02 0.10 -0.80 -1.71 -0.13 1.05 Bloomberg 146.63 -0.75 -0.73 -2.33 0.09 0.21 -3.43 Bloomberg 152.74 -0.63 -1.12 -2.28 0.57 1.94 -0.47 Bloomberg 162.23 -0.37 0.90 -0.37 0.86 2.11 3.32 ETF 47.19 -0.11 0.15 -2.88 0.15 0.64 -2.03 Bloomberg 143.65 -0.57 -0.68 -1.41 1.07 2.00 1.09 Bloomberg 123.40 -0.55 -0.89 -1.64 -2.42 -0.82 -1.80 Bloomberg 150.25 0.10 0.43 -0.63 -0.79 1.87 6.49 Bloomberg 2015/8/7
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 203.47 -2.56 -6.54 -16.50 -14.47 -14.44 -30.95 MSCI 209.63 -0.84 -4.00 -11.99 -8.69 -6.02 -15.18 MSCI 105.09 -0.81 0.92 -1.41 3.84 2.27 4.06 MSCI 200.56 -1.38 1.04 -0.05 5.25 7.71 13.77 MSCI 210.26 -0.13 2.08 1.22 2.63 5.17 9.28 MSCI 198.91 -0.59 0.18 -4.00 -0.82 -0.21 1.29 MSCI 143.78 -1.30 1.20 -2.60 1.57 1.77 9.24 MSCI 71.65 -0.25 1.04 -1.23 0.41 4.81 2.93 MSCI 117.32 0.27 2.32 2.32 -3.36 -4.66 0.12 MSCI 223.48 -1.60 0.53 2.29 8.55 11.80 21.34 NBI 3860.46 -3.57 -0.99 4.78 15.94 21.49 46.64 AMEX 107.38 -3.89 -24.21 -38.98 -44.16 -34.54 -55.72 REITs FTSE 14140.22 -0.03 1.36 -1.00 -4.95 -0.76 8.79 REITs FTSE 1719.74 -0.15 1.45 -0.93 -5.44 -0.94 9.65 REITs FTSE 1543.93 2.31 6.36 4.80 6.50 23.20 36.21 REITs FTSE 1453.82 -1.03 2.81 -5.23 -6.30 -4.41 -3.94 (/) 1094.05 -0.16 -6.06 -8.01 -11.39 -7.74 -16.61 (/) 14.82 0.28 -4.66 -8.92 -12.27 -5.47 -25.81 (/) 5173.00 -1.09 -3.12 -19.17 -8.44 -17.89 -26.09 (/) 48.61 -6.90 -17.66 -26.04 -14.30 -15.65 -53.95 (/) 43.87 -6.90 -17.22 -26.49 -12.71 -18.04 -55.29 CRB 198.32 -2.10 -9.13 -13.46 -11.33 -13.76 -32.18 867.71 0.26 -7.02 -0.62 -5.61 -10.05 -13.12 : Bloomberg 2015/8/7
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.0967 -0.15 -1.74 -1.68 -3.12 -9.34 -18.06 124.24 -0.28 -1.25 -3.43 -3.95 -3.67 -17.81 1.5491 -0.84 -0.22 -0.66 1.50 -0.60 -7.77 0.9839 -1.82 -4.56 -5.02 -5.82 1.09 -7.83 1.3131 -0.31 -3.70 -7.93 -4.25 -11.59 -16.92 0.7418 1.51 -0.60 -6.21 -4.76 -9.47 -20.09 1167.46 0.24 -3.06 -6.33 -6.49 -6.37 -11.54 31.6460 0.09 -2.13 -2.96 -0.55 -0.07 -5.21 6.2097 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 -0.06 -0.89 13541.00 -0.01 -1.65 -2.82 -6.40 -8.49 -13.73 63.8150 0.50 -0.56 0.67 -2.58 -1.21 -4.05 35.1350 -0.38 -3.30 -3.88 -6.98 -6.21 -8.55 1.3850 -0.93 -2.38 -3.37 -2.11 -4.23 -9.67 3.9265 -2.49 -3.27 -8.17 -8.75 -10.84 -18.49 45.7400 0.00 -1.35 -2.27 -2.96 -2.16 -4.06 12.6263 0.43 -1.49 -4.41 -7.57 -8.45 -15.89 2.7807 -0.36 -4.08 -3.10 -10.20 -16.01 -22.64 64.0197 -3.75 -11.87 -19.95 2.26 -5.12 -43.86 3.8158 -1.19 -1.94 -4.18 -2.79 -7.18 -17.89 283.44 -1.36 -1.29 -3.42 -3.66 -7.56 -17.22 4.0225 -0.25 -1.05 -0.83 -2.57 -7.96 -17.50 3.5072 -2.51 -9.15 -13.73 -20.99 -24.22 -34.56 16.1575 -0.30 -2.81 -4.98 -7.50 -8.76 -18.48 9.2140 -0.30 -1.26 -3.16 -5.96 -8.13 -10.25 : Bloomberg 2015/8/7
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 2.8191 -8.7 -37.1 -8.1 24.3 6.7 -41.1 10 2.1623 -1.8 -23.5 1.5 16.6 -0.9 -25.8 0.4200 0.5 -2.7 -0.1 2.5 9.1 -8.5 0.6610 1.7 1.8 7.1 28.6 12.0 -40.1 0.9650 2.9 -16.4 7.0 35.1 13.9 -52.3 1.8330 6.1 -43.7 5.8 25.5 -5.7 -103.9 1.9860 14.4 -27.4 23.7 49.7 37.5 -64.0 2.4520 6.1 -68.9 4.8 3.8 -23.5 -139.8 3.0350 10.1 -9.2 24.5 82.4 51.7 -34.7 9.7000 14.0 23.0 28.0 208.0 168.0 24.0 10.8972 25.1 1.2 59.6 -149.6 -211.0 105.0 3.6800 -6.0 -14.0 -14.0 68.0 8.0 -134.0 8.1700 -8.3 -11.7 3.3 72.1 20.1 -9.2 13.8400 87.2 125.1 94.8 137.9 147.6 175.6 6.0280 -1.7 2.5 -1.9 41.2 18.4 24.6 2.4120 -1.3 -8.3 -13.8 14.5 -19.3 -67.3 8.4450 -12.1 12.0 25.7 125.0 64.9 14.3 * 7.8100 0.3 2.6 -18.5 10.6 -4.7 -82.4 9 2.7830 -2.9 -12.6 0.0 17.2 5.4 -92.5 : Bloomberg 2015/8/7
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright2015EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.