規劃 planning

規劃規劃 Planning

交通大學任維廉教授交通大學任維廉教授at NCTU, 2012at NCTU, 2012

2

1. 1. 規劃規劃 ((Planning)

• Business Proposal (Thesis, project): Target market segment, Product offering, Distribution &

sales plan,

Indicate advertising & promotion plan,

System & operations requirements,

Financial forecast, Risk & sensitivities,

Milestones & timelines.

• 交大管院 AACSB 認證，女兒婚禮

2國立交通大學管理學院任維廉教授

ContentsContents

1.1 What and Why of Planning1.1 What and Why of Planning

1.2 Strategic Planning1.2 Strategic Planning

1.3 Setting Goals and Developing Plans1.3 Setting Goals and Developing Plans

1.4 Contemporary Issues in Planning1.4 Contemporary Issues in Planning


1.1 What Is Plan1.1 What Is Planningning ? ? （規劃）（規劃） A primary managerial activity (POLC) that involves:A primary managerial activity (POLC) that involves:

Defining the organization’s Defining the organization’s goalsgoals Establishing an overall Establishing an overall strategystrategy for achieving those for achieving those

goalsgoals Developing Developing plansplans for organizational work activities. for organizational work activities. （計畫）（計畫）

Types of planningTypes of planning InInformal:formal: not written down. not written down. Formal:Formal: written, specific, and long-term focus, involves written, specific, and long-term focus, involves

shared goals for the organization. shared goals for the organization.


The Planning-Controlling LinkThe Planning-Controlling Link

· Standards· Measurements· Comparison· Actions

Controlling

· Goals· Objectives· Strategies· Plans

Planning

· Structure· Human

Resource Management

Organizing

· Motivation· Leadership· Communication· Individual and

Group Behavior

Leading


1.1 Why Do Managers Plan?1.1 Why Do Managers Plan?

* Formal planning is associated with Positive * Formal planning is associated with Positive financial resultsfinancial results..* The quality of planning and implementation affects * The quality of planning and implementation affects

performance more than the extent of planning.performance more than the extent of planning.

• PurposesPurposes of Planning of PlanningProvides directionProvides directionReduces uncertaintyReduces uncertaintyMinimizes waste and redundancyMinimizes waste and redundancySets the standards for controlling (POLC)Sets the standards for controlling (POLC)

• 未戰而廟算勝者，得勝多也。未戰而廟算勝者，得勝多也。• PProper roper pprior rior pplanning lanning pprevents revents ppoor oor pperformance.erformance.• No plan, micro-managementNo plan, micro-management


1.2 Strategic Planning1.2 Strategic Planning

1. 1. 辨認目前使命，目標，策略辨認目前使命，目標，策略 MissionMission: the firm’s reason for being.: the firm’s reason for being. The scope of its products and services, e.g. The scope of its products and services, e.g. 鐵路，鐵路， Shell, Shell,

Hollywood, McDonaldHollywood, McDonald

2. 2. 衡外情：環境之衡外情：環境之機會、威脅機會、威脅

3. 3. 量己力：組織之優缺點量己力：組織之優缺點 Core CompetenceCore Competence: major value-creating skills and : major value-creating skills and

capabilities. capabilities. 人無我有，人有我優，人優我轉。人無我有，人有我優，人優我轉。

4. 4. 形成策略形成策略 The decisions and actions that determine the long-run The decisions and actions that determine the long-run

performance of an organization.performance of an organization.


Identifying the Organization’sIdentifying the Organization’s Opportunities Opportunities 本公司「可能做」本公司「可能做」 (( 環境的機會環境的機會 )) ，，「能做」「能做」 (( 公司的長處公司的長處 ) ) 之間的搭配之間的搭配

Organization’sOpportunities

Organization’sResources/Abilities

Opportunities inthe Environment


Identify the organization’s

current mission, goals, and strategies

External Analysis● opportunities● threats

Internal Analysis● strengths● weaknesses

Formulate strategies

ImplementStrategies

EvaluateResults

SWOT Analysis

Strategic Management ProcessStrategic Management Process(1~4: Strategic planning)(1~4: Strategic planning)


策略討論策略討論 1. 剛開始什麼賺錢的業務都嘗試 ( 雨露均霑 ) ，但後來漸漸

學會取捨、聚焦。剛從學校畢業的藝術家什麼作品都做，朱銘只專於太極系列。

2. What’s your unique value? 選擇你最擅長、最喜歡的領域，持續鑽研，再設法提升，才能凸顯差異性（不落入惡性循環）。

3. A set of hypotheses about cause and effect. 理想 vs. 目前樣子，what to do? what not to do? 取捨，聚焦。金融海嘯前，福特汽車集團賣掉旗下五款品牌（ Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo, Aston Martin, Mercury ），專注福特和林肯。

4. Kim & Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy: How to create uncontested market space and make the competition irrelevant, 提升、降低、創造、消去某些因素。太陽劇團， Swatch, QB House.


策略實例策略實例

1. CQS (Cost, Quality, Speed), FBC (Faster, Better, Cheaper) , Cost down, 做得更多 , 做得更好

vs. Apple, Innovation, 做得不同2. Andrew Grove 的早餐工廠，先減法，再乘法（複

製）3. 客觀化的定位，差異化的優越性，聚焦深耕。（戴

勝益）4. 隆中對，農夫與律師，牙醫師，松竹梅， Union Bank, Shouldice.


策略之三個層級策略之三個層級

1. 1. 公司層級公司層級 (corporate)(corporate)

2. 2. 事業層級事業層級 (business)(business) ：： SBUSBU

3. 3. 功能層級功能層級 (functional)(functional)

討論：討論： network levelnetwork level


Levels of Organizational StrategyLevels of Organizational Strategy


公司層級策略公司層級策略


1. 1. 總策略：成長，穩定，精簡總策略：成長，穩定，精簡

2. 2. 公司投資組合公司投資組合 (( 或或 BCG) BCG) 矩陣：矩陣：金牛，明星，問號，狗金牛，明星，問號，狗

Grand StrategiesGrand Strategies

CorporateGrowth

Strategies

CorporateStability

Strategies

CorporateRetrenchment

Strategies

AbundantEnvironmentalOpportunities

CriticalEnvironmental

Threats

CorporateStability

Strategies

Cri

tica

lW

eak

nes

ses

Va

lua

ble

Str

eng

ths

Environmental Status

Fir

m S

tatu

s

國立交通大學管理學院任維廉教授 17

The BCG MatrixThe BCG Matrix

Stars

CashCows

Dogs

QuestionMarks

Market Share

High Low

Hig

hL

ow

AnticipatedGrowth

Rate


事業層級策略事業層級策略 ((Michael Porter) Michael Porter)

1. 1. 競爭優勢之創造與持續競爭優勢之創造與持續2. 2. 競爭策略之創造與持續競爭策略之創造與持續產業分析：五種作用力產業分析：五種作用力基本策略：成本領導，差異化，集中基本策略：成本領導，差異化，集中


競爭優勢競爭優勢


1. 1. 價值創造＝對顧客的價值－生產成本價值創造＝對顧客的價值－生產成本

2. 2. 競爭優勢之一般性基礎：競爭優勢之一般性基礎：效率，品質，創新，顧客回應效率，品質，創新，顧客回應

個案：個案： Intel Intel 在哪個構面還不夠好？在哪個構面還不夠好？

Forces In The Industry AnalysisForces In The Industry Analysis

Current Rivalry

IndustryCompetitors

Suppliers

NewEntrants

Buyers

Substitutes

Threat ofNew Entrants

Threat ofSubstitutes

BargainingPower ofBuyers

BargainingPower ofSuppliers


Three Generic Competitive StrategiesThree Generic Competitive Strategies

• Cost LeadershipCost Leadership StrategyStrategy

Seeking to attain the lowest total overall costs relative Seeking to attain the lowest total overall costs relative to other industry competitors.to other industry competitors.

• DifferentiationDifferentiation StrategyStrategy

Attempting to create a unique and distinctive product Attempting to create a unique and distinctive product or service for which customers will pay a premium.or service for which customers will pay a premium.

• FocusFocus StrategyStrategy

Using a cost or differentiation advantage to exploit a Using a cost or differentiation advantage to exploit a particular market particular market segmentsegment rather a larger market.rather a larger market.

討論：創新與量產循環，討論：創新與量產循環， stuck stuck in the middlein the middle


描繪企業之策略圖：描繪企業之策略圖：西南航空公司西南航空公司


Accor Accor Formula Formula HotelHotel

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策略群組策略群組


1. 1. 製藥業：製藥業： Merck, Pfizer, Eli Lilly Merck, Pfizer, Eli Lilly 高研發支出，高研發支出，高價格；其他高價格；其他藥廠係低低群組。藥廠係低低群組。

2. 2. 煙草葉：煙草葉： Philip Morris (prospector), Reynolds Philip Morris (prospector), Reynolds (analyzer), American (defender), Liggett (reactor) (analyzer), American (defender), Liggett (reactor)

策略創新策略創新Customer Service Strategies, Innovation StrategiesCustomer Service Strategies, Innovation Strategies

Levitt: Levitt: 未來屬於那些在機會出現前就發現他們的人。未來屬於那些在機會出現前就發現他們的人。「創造一個需求（或一個市場）並去滿足它。」的案例：「創造一個需求（或一個市場）並去滿足它。」的案例：

• 西南航空：鎖定利基市場，最快最便宜。道歉長。西南航空：鎖定利基市場，最快最便宜。道歉長。• FedEX: overnight delivery!FedEX: overnight delivery!

• 戴爾電腦：跳過經銷商，產品直接賣給你。戴爾電腦：跳過經銷商，產品直接賣給你。• Wal-Mart: Wal-Mart: 鄉村包圍城市，點線面突圍。鄉村包圍城市，點線面突圍。• Value integrator: iPhone as platformValue integrator: iPhone as platform

• Total solution provider: IBM Total solution provider: IBM

* * 交換公司忠誠度交換公司忠誠度 (Frequent Flyer Program): (Frequent Flyer Program): 星空聯盟星空聯盟 (Star Alliance), SkyTeam, oneworld. (Star Alliance), SkyTeam, oneworld.


1.3 Setting Goals and Developing Plans 1.3 Setting Goals and Developing Plans

• Elements of PlanningElements of Planning Goals (Objectives)Goals (Objectives)

Desired outcomesDesired outcomes for individuals, organizations for individuals, organizations

Provide direction and evaluation performance criteriaProvide direction and evaluation performance criteria

PlansPlans

Documents that outline how Documents that outline how goalsgoals are to be are to be accomplishedaccomplished

Describe how Describe how resourcesresources are to be allocated and establish are to be allocated and establish activity schedules. activity schedules.


Types of GoalsTypes of Goals

• Financial GoalsFinancial Goals Are related to the expected Are related to the expected internalinternal financial performance financial performance

of the organization.of the organization.

• Strategic GoalsStrategic Goals Are related to the performance of the firm relative to Are related to the performance of the firm relative to

factors in its factors in its external external environment (e.g., competitors).environment (e.g., competitors).


Stated Goals vs. Real GoalsStated Goals vs. Real Goals

Broadly-worded Broadly-worded official statements official statements of the of the organization (intended for public consumption) organization (intended for public consumption) that may be irrelevant to its that may be irrelevant to its real goalsreal goals (what (what actually goesactually goes on in the organization). on in the organization).

e.g., FBC, e.g., FBC, 三好一公道，燈塔理念三好一公道，燈塔理念


Types of PlansTypes of Plans

• Strategic Plans Strategic Plans Establish the organization’s Establish the organization’s overall goalsoverall goals..

Seek to position the organization in terms of its Seek to position the organization in terms of its environment.environment.

Cover extended periods of time.Cover extended periods of time.

• Operational Plans Operational Plans Specify the Specify the detailsdetails of how the overall goals are to be of how the overall goals are to be

achieved.achieved.

Cover Cover short timeshort time period. period.


Types of Plans (cont’d)Types of Plans (cont’d)

• Long-Term PlansLong-Term Plans Plans with time frames extending beyond three years.Plans with time frames extending beyond three years.

• Short-Term PlansShort-Term Plans Plans with time frames on Plans with time frames on one year or less.one year or less.

• Specific PlansSpecific Plans Plans that are Plans that are clearly definedclearly defined and leave no room for and leave no room for

interpretation. (e.g., interpretation. (e.g., CFPCFP))

• Directional PlansDirectional Plans Flexible plans that set out Flexible plans that set out general guidelinesgeneral guidelines, provide , provide

focus, yet allow discretion in implementation.focus, yet allow discretion in implementation.31國立交通大學管理學院任維廉教授

Types of Plans (cont’d)Types of Plans (cont’d)

• Single-Use PlanSingle-Use Plan A A one-timeone-time plan specifically designed to meet the need of a plan specifically designed to meet the need of a

unique situation.unique situation.

• Standing PlansStanding Plans OngoingOngoing plans that provide guidance for activities plans that provide guidance for activities

performed repeatedly. e.g. Budget.performed repeatedly. e.g. Budget.


Traditional Goal SettingTraditional Goal Setting

Broad goals are Broad goals are set at the topset at the top of the organization. of the organization. Goals are then Goals are then broken into subgoalsbroken into subgoals for each organizational for each organizational

level.level. Assumes that top management knows best because they Assumes that top management knows best because they

can see the “big picture.”can see the “big picture.” Goals are intended to direct, guide, and constrain from Goals are intended to direct, guide, and constrain from

above.above.

*Means–Ends Chain, *Means–Ends Chain, 南宮博士給小飛俠的信，南宮博士給小飛俠的信， bossism, bossism, bottleneckbottleneck


The Downside of Traditional Goal SettingThe Downside of Traditional Goal Setting


Management By Objectives (MBO)Management By Objectives (MBO)

Specific performance Specific performance goals are jointly determinedgoals are jointly determined by by employees and managers.employees and managers.

Progress toward accomplishing goals is Progress toward accomplishing goals is periodically periodically reviewed.reviewed.

RewardsRewards are allocated on the basis of progress towards the are allocated on the basis of progress towards the goals.goals.


Steps in a Typical MBO ProgramSteps in a Typical MBO Program

1. The organization’s overall objectives and strategies are formulated.

2. Major objectives are allocated among divisional and departmental units.

3. Unit managers collaboratively set specific objectives for their units with their managers.

4. Specific objectives are collaboratively set with all department members.

5. Action plans, defining how objectives are to be achieved, are specified and agreed upon by managers and employees.

6. The action plans are implemented.

7. Progress toward objectives is periodically reviewed, and feedback is provided.

8. Successful achievement of objectives is reinforced by performance-based rewards.


Does MBO Work?Does MBO Work?

* Potential Problems with MBO Programs* Potential Problems with MBO Programs

Not as effective in dynamic environmentsNot as effective in dynamic environments that require that require constant resetting of goals.constant resetting of goals.

Overemphasis on individual accomplishmentOveremphasis on individual accomplishment may create may create problems with teamwork.problems with teamwork.

Allowing the MBO program to become an annual Allowing the MBO program to become an annual paperworkpaperwork shuffle. shuffle.

* Reason for MBO Success* Reason for MBO Success

Top management Top management commitment and involvement.commitment and involvement.


Characteristics of Characteristics of Well-Designed GoalsWell-Designed Goals

1. Written in terms of 1. Written in terms of outcomes, not actionsoutcomes, not actions

2. Measurable and quantifiable2. Measurable and quantifiable

3. Clear as to time frame3. Clear as to time frame

e.g.,e.g., 華山論劍，華山論劍， William William Lab.Lab.

4. Challenging yet attainable4. Challenging yet attainable

5. Written down5. Written down

6. Communicated to all 6. Communicated to all necessary organizational necessary organizational membersmembers

國立交通大學管理學院任維廉教授 38

討論：目標設定之原則討論：目標設定之原則1. 1. Smart:Smart:

Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Specific, Measurable, Attainable,

Relevant, Time bound.Relevant, Time bound.

2. Kiss:2. Kiss:

Keep it simple and short. Keep it simple and short.

Keep it simple, stupid.Keep it simple, stupid.

＊＊一分鐘經理人一分鐘經理人，， 5959秒員工秒員工


要浪漫的願景，也要務實的規劃要浪漫的願景，也要務實的規劃

1. 1. 推測外界環境需求，分析內部資源及能力推測外界環境需求，分析內部資源及能力2. 2. 寫下決心追求的寫下決心追求的目標目標，宣示、溝通，宣示、溝通3. 3. 積極主動訂定積極主動訂定計畫計畫，採取行動，消除差異，採取行動，消除差異

e.g. Ivery Lee vs. Charles Schwab, Time managemente.g. Ivery Lee vs. Charles Schwab, Time management


台北市交通白皮書台北市交通白皮書


錸德科技規劃錸德科技規劃 11111111 願景願景

1.1. 每個員工有每個員工有 11棟房子棟房子2.2. 公司經營績效擠進國內前公司經營績效擠進國內前 1010 大大3.3. 培養培養 100100個專業經理個專業經理4.4. 20052005年時，年營收達年時，年營收達 10001000億元目標億元目標

e.g., 0941e.g., 0941


Steps in Goal SettingSteps in Goal Setting

1.1. Review the organization’s Review the organization’s missionmission statement. statement.

2.2. Evaluate available Evaluate available resourcesresources..

3.3. Determine Determine goalsgoals individually or with others. individually or with others.

4.4. Write down the goals and Write down the goals and communicatecommunicate them. them.

5.5. ReviewReview results and whether goals are being met. results and whether goals are being met.

＊承諾前可討論，承諾後使命必達。＊承諾前可討論，承諾後使命必達。＊＊ P.F. Drucker P.F. Drucker 的三個導師的三個導師


Developing PlansDeveloping Plans

• Contingency Factors in a Manager’s PlanningContingency Factors in a Manager’s Planning Manager’s level in the organizationManager’s level in the organization

Strategic plans at Strategic plans at higher higher levelslevels

Operational plans at Operational plans at lower lower levelslevels

Degree of environmental uncertaintyDegree of environmental uncertainty

Stable environment: specific plansStable environment: specific plans

DynamicDynamic environment: environment: specific but flexible plansspecific but flexible plans


Approaches to PlanningApproaches to Planning

• Establishing Establishing a formal planning departmenta formal planning department

A group of planning specialists whoA group of planning specialists who help help managers write managers write organizational plans.organizational plans.

• Involving organizational membersInvolving organizational members in the process in the process


1.4 Contemporary Issues in Planning1.4 Contemporary Issues in Planning

• Criticisms of PlanningCriticisms of Planning ：：紙上畫畫，牆上掛掛，會紙上畫畫，牆上掛掛，會上罵罵，全不算話。上罵罵，全不算話。 Planning may create Planning may create rigidityrigidity. . 計畫趕不上變化計畫趕不上變化！沒有一沒有一次成功的戰役是按照計畫進行的。次成功的戰役是按照計畫進行的。

Plans cannot be developed for Plans cannot be developed for dynamic environmentsdynamic environments. .

Formal plans cannot replace Formal plans cannot replace intuition and creativityintuition and creativity..

Formal planning reinforces today’s success, which may Formal planning reinforces today’s success, which may lead to lead to tomorrow’s failuretomorrow’s failure. (e.g., Icarus, Wang . (e.g., Icarus, Wang Laboratories)Laboratories)

Just planning isn’t enough. Just planning isn’t enough. 坐而言不如起而行？ ImplementingImplementing!!


Effective Planning in Dynamic EnvironmentsEffective Planning in Dynamic Environments

Develop plans that are specific but flexible. (e.g., 18Develop plans that are specific but flexible. (e.g., 18 套劇套劇本，本， Royal Dutch/Shell, Royal Dutch/Shell, ScenarioScenario-based planning)-based planning)

Understand that planning is an Understand that planning is an ongoing processongoing process..

(e.g.,(e.g., 毛治國的生涯規劃毛治國的生涯規劃 ,, Muddling through with a Muddling through with a purposepurpose) )

Change plansChange plans when conditions warrant. when conditions warrant.

Persistence in planning eventually pay off.Persistence in planning eventually pay off.

Flatten the organizational hierarchy to foster the Flatten the organizational hierarchy to foster the development of planning skills at all organizational levels.development of planning skills at all organizational levels.


How Study Management?How Study Management?1. Come to class, 2. Read the material, 3. 1. Come to class, 2. Read the material, 3. Do your Do your assignmentassignment: : 第第 5, 6 5, 6 組組作業：作業：上網找資料，討論當前熱門上網找資料，討論當前熱門議題。議題。1.1. 上網找兩個不同產業的公司，找他們的上網找兩個不同產業的公司，找他們的

goals, goals, 評估其是否評估其是否 ““ well writingwell writing”?”?2.2. 公司有一個目標是更環境永續公司有一個目標是更環境永續 (sustainable)(sustainable) ，，其中有一步驟是減少紙張浪費。請擬訂其中有一步驟是減少紙張浪費。請擬訂計畫計畫。。

3.3. 為你自己的為你自己的 academics, career preparation, academics, career preparation, family, hobbies family, hobbies 各設定至少兩個短期各設定至少兩個短期目標目標，兩，兩個長期目標，再訂出達成目標之個長期目標，再訂出達成目標之計畫計畫。。

4.4. 檢討個人之檢討個人之時間時間管理。管理。


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重點回顧重點回顧1. SWOT analysis1. SWOT analysis

2. 2. 比較比較

Benchmarking VS. Competitive strategy, advantageBenchmarking VS. Competitive strategy, advantage

Planning VS. PlanPlanning VS. Plan

Stated VS. Real objectivesStated VS. Real objectives

Strategic VS. Operational planStrategic VS. Operational plan


Terms to KnowTerms to Know

• core competenciescore competencies

• SWOT analysisSWOT analysis

• cost leadership strategy cost leadership strategy

• differentiation strategy differentiation strategy

• focus strategy focus strategy

• stuck in the middle stuck in the middle

• goals

• plans

• management by objectives (MBO)


Case: Case: 他不瞭解我（跨層級常見的問題）他不瞭解我（跨層級常見的問題） 1. 1. Simon Simon 離職的主因為何離職的主因為何 ??

2. 2. Jackson Jackson 為何大吃一驚為何大吃一驚 ??

3. 3. 若你是若你是 Jackson Jackson , , 會採取什麼行動？為什麼？會採取什麼行動？為什麼？


Takeaway:Takeaway: important, and non-obvious, important, and non-obvious, 喔！這個地方我原來沒想到！喔！這個地方我原來沒想到！

Don’t waste your time

Cocktail chatter

Non-case teaching

Takeaway!

Important Unimportant Important

Not obvious

Obvious

Obvious


Case study: a manager’s dilemmaCase study: a manager’s dilemma

• Identify and articulate business problemsIdentify and articulate business problems• Gather and analyze information applicableGather and analyze information applicable• Identify and apply an appropriate tool for solving Identify and apply an appropriate tool for solving

problems.problems.


Takeaways: DoTakeaways: Do

好的領導人應該是：好的領導人應該是：1. 1. 頭腦清楚，眼光快又準，能頭腦清楚，眼光快又準，能傾聽傾聽，胸襟格局大，，胸襟格局大，肚量大，手腕高，能放下身段勤跑基層。肚量大，手腕高，能放下身段勤跑基層。

2. 2. 對事持續改善，對人尊重對事持續改善，對人尊重，分工合作，做人做，分工合作，做人做事。事。

3. 3. 能考慮情境，調整自己能考慮情境，調整自己。。 Leader, subordinates, Leader, subordinates, situation.situation.


Takeaways: Don’tTakeaways: Don’t

• 人際溝通人際溝通之常見障礙：之常見障礙： DefensivenessDefensiveness ( (防衛防衛 ) vs. ) vs. SupportiveSupportive （支持）（支持） , Filtering (, Filtering ( 過濾，選擇性知過濾，選擇性知覺覺 ) , Emotions () , Emotions ( 情緒情緒 ), Information Overload (), Information Overload ( 資訊資訊負荷過多負荷過多 ) ……) ……

• Customer oriented, Customer oriented, 外部顧客之外，還有內部顧客：外部顧客之外，還有內部顧客：上司，部屬，同事（本部門，他部門），非公司顧上司，部屬，同事（本部門，他部門），非公司顧客（親友，家人客（親友，家人 )) 。清楚顧客需要，不可被說：。清楚顧客需要，不可被說：你給的都不是我要的！你給的都不是我要的！


Takeaways: OthersTakeaways: Others

• 增強人際技巧，溝通能力。增強人際技巧，溝通能力。

• 其他經驗分享其他經驗分享


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聽的原則聽的原則


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